Can Crypto Keep Surviving The Market Volatility? | OSF and Mando | REKT Vision

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3:05all right we're back again another episode of wrecked vision uh another pretty crazy week i would say we're going to be uh joined by the public guys a little bit later but it's been other week where bitcoin is exactly where we left it um i think it's down around one percent i think um we're back at 82 and a half k basically as we go live i think we're around 83k last week although that is slightly deceptive because this week it really did feel like a incredibly volatile week how have you uh have you been faring osf yeah i mean if we recap what we said last week may or may may or may not have a have said if you want to take a punt on stuff that isn't bitcoin that is down 90 95 percent look at meme coins potentially and maybe even alts i don't think alts have really moved that much i mean sol solana's outperform versus bitcoin for sure AVAX has I think so maybe altcoins are up have outperformed bitcoin dominance I think has dropped a little bit barely that's going on man it's going to be just memes I think bitcoin outperformed a lot even I think it's really just been some of those meme coins so fartcoin is up 113 % in a week what else Pepe Pepe is up

4:37so you're up 3 % last week in a week so actually just looking through it really is just fartcoin mog is up 10 called that called that one on the show i think uh if anyone followed me on that one um now at 900 million i think it was at 350 when we did the show so yeah i think it was about 400 i think 400 issue just just broke into the 400s but yeah look i don't think that's going to be the only one you know like i've just it's increasingly and we can you know recap the week obviously because a lot's happened for Bitcoin to move just 1 % in a week. But I think for those who are more bullishly inclined like myself, there's still plenty of other coins down 90 to 95 % just sitting there.

5:26And they're up today, but they're just sitting there massively lower. And I do think you will see a rebound out of all of this. And I do think all those tokens present a really interesting buying opportunity for a punt. And if you bought Fartcoin last week, you've doubled your money in a week in a market that's been very tough to trade, to be quite frank. So I think this is sort of the time to really be switched on and trying to identify interesting things here to get long where they've pulled back massively, basically is what I'm trying to say. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives.

6:06Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. Yeah, it was 450, but still, 2x in a week. it's not so bad it has this time last week we um you know we had not seen the full extent of the tariff sell-off um i think this time last week we were we were both talking about what we thought would happen and i have to give you credit here you really did call it um i think i was i didn't i didn't catch that sorry could you just you called it i bought farcone all right we're both winners um my view was that um there would no be no deals and or if there was then it wouldn't be with china and that you would still see massive money printing coming out of asia in particularly off the back of this maybe not from the fed but definitely from my japan and china um and maybe europe i think that was partly up until about wednesday that really did feel like the view um and that was kind of what people were talking about being bullish for bitcoin war again was just global m2 going higher i didn't think trump would kind of walk it all back um whether that was out of the deal or that he got spooked by the bond market remains to be seen i'm kind of of the view that um it was the bull market that that changed his opinion but you thought that he'd blink and he did he did um obviously from this very very aggressive position he kind of walked a little back there's still going to be decent tariffs you know so we're going to get 10 tariffs for everyone basically but the the higher levels of tariffs are being delayed for 90 days while deals get worked on um and we've really seen an escalation on is china um now china is still a huge bit of of imports into the us so i think the effective tariff is still up a lot because of how big they are um respective of total imports but um yeah what did you make of all this like did even when it was like really bad uh midweek did you did you still think that he was going to blink yeah so i mean in fairness i think on friday last friday i was calling for some sort of de-escalation and i think after the show is when things did actually get worse so there was like another drop off since the show and obviously monday you know sunday was when we had a big puke in crypto as well um i just think it's you're not gonna it's just not going to be the case where you're just going to get trump saying 120 tariffs from china and China raising it to 200%, Trump going to 300%.

9:25They're just these basically fake numbers. I mean, they're not fake because they're in effect, but it's not sustainable to have something like that. And I think one of the problems or one of my assessments of the current situation is a lot of people are like, oh, you can't ever predict Trump. He's a lunatic or he's crazy. He's crazy enough to go ahead and do it, et cetera. And I think people just seem to assume that he is the one single decision maker in all of this, or maybe, you know, Xi is one single decision maker and Xi Jinping is one single decision maker and all of this. And it's just not the case.

9:58Like there's obviously people advising Trump. There's obviously other stakeholders, people who've donated massively to the Republican Party. Like there's people putting on political pressure, people putting on financial pressure. Like there's a lot of pressure coming on from all angles. And presumably a lot of the pressure is, hey, man, this is a good experiment, but you have to stand down or someone has to stand down or something has to happen here because this is not sustainable. And eventually something gives way. My hunch was that it would be Trump who would give way because I think for me, and what I said last week, it feels like it's easiest for him to say, oh, we got three or four better deals with these other people and we'll pause the tariffs on the rest and then we'll sort of like stand down, but we won't say we sit down.

10:39And then he could say, look what I did. I got down and negotiated better deals for America overall. I'm the master negotiator, et cetera, and try and pawn it off as like some sort of negotiation tactic, which the net outcome may be is they do get better deals for the US, but he probably significantly worsens international relations with many different countries and probably loses a bit of credibility in public. But I think it's just clear to me that that was what had to happen, especially after Powell's comments as well. Powell's saying that it wouldn't cut rates. I'm curious to see what happens now, given the pretty big, decent inflation CPI miss across the board.

11:18Curious to see what happens there. But, you know, power not backing down and China seemingly not really caring. And with there being some sort of negotiations, some sort of talks with other countries, regardless of if they're important or not, you can kind of just, my thought was like, you can just see this going one way because he's not just going to let the market fall through, fall through the bed here. So I guess that's what happened. And, you know, it's been volatile since then because we had that move where Nasdaq was up 12 % in a day, yes the p500 9.5 percent then everything went back down like five or six percent yesterday and i was back up again it's like it's pretty like whipsaw yeah it reminds me of covid price action it was you know it was like this crazy crazy crazy price action but um it just shows me as 12 percent third biggest day ever that's mental and by the way that's with the current market cap where it is now.

12:14Like think about how many trillions of dollars that is now versus what it was when, you know, however long ago the last time it happened. Like this is insane amounts of money. But to me, it just showed me that I think the entire world suddenly somehow got itself bearish on this because just like how scientific experts came out to talk about COVID and everyone believed them, probably some trade experts came out to talk about this and everyone believed them and people just panicked and sold. And then when you have these great big squeezes, it shows you, I think, that the market was short, the market was under risk and people thought, oh actually this isn't that bad um he's not going to go crazy and go for it so i don't know my assessment of last week as i've mentioned last friday was that i think people were just losing their marvels and i think it's quite clear that people did lose their marvels and hopefully they've refound them well but i think they have to a certain extent i think we should probably talk about why potentially he had to walk it all back and that that seemingly was kind of on market um I think that Trump ideally was happy to continue in this sort of strongman war against Xi Jinping.

13:20And then it felt as though right from the start of last week, Bonneal started to go higher. And this is like a, let's say a semi-professional organization in real vision. But normally you would know that stocks are going higher. I normally would see Bonneal go higher. and then when stocks go lower, point of yield stocks go lower. You have this terrible scenario unfolding on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, where the 10-year has kept on going higher. And this is a lot of people pointed to unwinds of big basis trades that are happening. Some people point to China actually selling, although some other people went to Japan.

14:02If you don't know, about 30 % of all US government debt is held by other countries uh japan is is number one um and i think china's up there in the top two or three and so that was kind of the ace in the hole because obviously this is what elon's doge has all been about you know getting the bonniels down and that was kind of what the narrative was at the start even look we're going to focus on the 10 year now we're going to focus on the 10 you want to get down to three percent and then we're going to refinance everything once that started to unravel it suddenly seemed like this actually could get slightly even worse because um you know the fiscal deficits would get pretty out of hand if bond yields start continue to go higher let's say to five seven five six seven percent um and that that seemingly was the tap on the shoulder on wednesday night as as things started to escalate um that we that has been reported that maybe caused the administration to think right we need to um do a deal we've also seen in the last week gold push on to an all-time high everyday tire and partly that is also related to the fact the dollar has really broken down now that dollar breaking down should limit some of the impact of these of these tariffs right like um the dollar having a weak week so if you go to like trueflation at the moment trueflation keeps hitting lower and lower figures for inflation even though right now there was a report today with that that um consumer expectation for inflation are now like seven or eight percent for next year so there's a strange scenario going on right now does the bond market scare you because that's the one thing i think a lot of people are focusing on even today the 10 years higher um let me bring it up but like it's worrying a lot of people that that is the dicey thing because you know there was a school of thought that this whole exercise by trump was um had a hidden motive to you know reduce bond yields and And the results, I don't know why, I mean, I don't necessarily know why he would, why that would have been the plan by attacking China, who obviously owns like a shitload of treasury.

16:30So that doesn't, I'm not sure. Yeah, I'm not sure I'm a buyer of that view. But what's happened is obviously bond deals have gone through the roof like 30 year, I think hit 5 % multiple times. 10 years pretty much at the highs of since everything happened right so this is the thing it's like i think there's expectation at least in the inspiration that this would now after the deal was made this would come down and actually you've seen you know kind of kicked on again and that makes that's i think driving gold higher because people are thinking wow has this actually affected dollar strength in general is this affected you know the u.s as a power here um or is this just like unwinds of trades.

17:15Is this just that continuing? Because if this goes up to 5 % again, it's really not going to feel that good that they even got into this in the first place. Maybe part of this is also that he's kind of semi-walked back the walk back, you know? And there's still a tireless on the line. But it's funny how I think it's what a lot of people are focusing on. Yeah. it's funny because you know we were at like 4.8 percent on the 10-year in the middle of january but that seemed to have not caused that much concern because i think since then all this stuff has happened where people have been like oh now they're going to cut rates and now you know yields should go lower and it's actually gone higher against i guess the the market intuition and I think that's what's freaking people out a bit.

18:08I mean, people are out there dumping treasuries, obviously, and I have much suspicions as to who that might be, but it does put like... Kind of accusatory, like a... Yeah, dumping treasuries. Stop dumping tenure, Michael.

18:32But yeah, it does feel like that was the main... I think that was the main jab in the ribs for Trump, which was like, shit, we can't really have this double fisting of stock market going lower and bond yields going materially higher at the same time. It's pretty bad for risk, basically. Yeah.

18:57Yeah, I do think that was a... It did call a lot of people off guard. And I think in the last couple of days, this strength in gold which had had a bit of a wobbly start to the week um pushed on and i think now there's there is a lot of people even saying this is the time for bitcoin this is the time for crypto here particularly bitcoin because it's you know if this really is a shift in however small shifting dollar power and at the same time you're in a world where you know there's still potential of the trade wars here it's not like other currencies necessarily look that amazing if the only way to them to get out of it is just by printing money so you're gonna have massive debasement in like in various other places as a solution to a trade war gold and bitcoin suddenly become very attractive again and and bitcoin has shown remarkable strength not as strong as fart coin but it is showing remarkable strength here kind of no matter what happens now people have been looking for a catalyst to take us out you know and you always say you know price forgets narrative and we've on real vision obviously the number one chart that gets brought on is this 12 week lag of of money printing is this the narrative that takes us to that takes us higher because because it's kind of strong enough i think that if it starts going higher and people start to believe that that's the narrative that's taking us higher we could start to recorrelate pretty strongly with global liquidity on this way higher i guess we have the correlations kind of already still there but we are we will start to push on higher here do you believe we're going to get a chart here that looks like the global m2 with the 12 on time up to 100k i think so i have my suspicions that we will do so i think that you cannot ignore bitcoin strength in the last two or three weeks i know people have spoken about it a lot and it was definitely more pronounced on a couple of days than others, but it's held up very well versus NASDAQ, which was down 20 % year to date.

21:28So in the past, if you had a move like that in the NASDAQ, you'd think, oh man, Bitcoin's going to be down 50%, 60%, 70%. This time it's held up very well. So I think it's hard to ignore its relative strength within the bucket of risk assets, which usually means when things rebound, it kicks on materially higher and starts to outperform. And that's what it feels like the setup is here right now. And once again, that seems to corroborate with this global liquidity chart. And once again, I still think that seems to time up. These things will seem to time up with the FOMC, which we get in May. And before we had the whole like, before the tariffs escalated, I think we were speaking a lot about like, let's see what the data is.

22:12if it's weak, we maybe start to see power changing the tune a little bit at the next FOMC. The data's been mixed. We obviously had a beat on payrolls, but that's a pretty big CPI miss across the board. The month-on-month number, the core number, the headline number, and I guess we'll see what PCE is, which I think is apparently the Fed's preferred measure of inflation at the end of this month. But it does you are seeing a decent slowdown in inflation still amid a relatively strong market. But tariffs is obviously the main question on Powell's mind, and they don't want to cut rates in the world where tariffs start coming into effect.

22:57So if between now and the next FOMC, there seems to be some sort of resolution or it's a bit more on the back burner, whatever it is, I don't know. I don't think we'll see full resolutions across the board, but you may see some trade deals, and maybe some of the bigger, you know, China-US trade deal, which I believe will happen at some point in the next eight weeks. Call me crazy, but... Eight weeks. What's eight weeks from today? You were so right last week. This is me doubling quits, saying that one. Double quits. Eight weeks. Some sorts of China-US trade deal. Do you know how long it takes to do a trade deal?

23:38Like, do you know... I would not deal with anyone basically since Brexit. I would not underestimate. Yeah, I guess it depends. Okay, trade deals may be strong, but I guess it depends like some sorts of agreement with China, which maybe either is perceived as a trade deal, perceived as like hold fire for a period of time, which is where the markets feel like they can relax. That's something I think you'll see. And I think just as quickly as this has escalated, I think it can deescalate very quickly as well. Because, again, I'm just looking at 2018. My views on this time around stem from what happened in 2018.

24:17And it was very similar. It was just like Trump and Xi Jinping going crazy at each other. And then the next thing you know, there'd be a Trump tweet saying, I received a beautiful letter from Xi and we hashed it out and had a few beers and had dinner with the wives and we decided we were cool and we'll come to an agreement. That sort of stuff. That's like the next type of, the next kind of like thing I see happening. And if you have something like that alongside continued weaker inflation numbers, then I think you can see Powell be a bit more dovish. And that's when it's like risk on. I think that's when it's like super risk on.

24:57That's like the Goldilocks thing we're hoping for, I guess. Yeah, I think Powell is kind of in a tough spot. Because of just the, because of what you said, he has to wait and see. You know, he can only really do QE by another name or like we capitalize the banks or some repo capitalization this week. He kind of has to wait and see. I think this is just general sense across global markets right now. It's just, is the bottom market basically saying that even if that deal happens now, we can go wider? like is this a loss of faith slightly in u.s hegemony and if let's just live in a world where let's say the 10-year goes to five five and a half six percent and power still can't really do anything is it like is the is a trade deal i just don't even know if a trade deal brings that down you know what i mean it's like there's a little bit as always with the bomb pockets everyone's always worried about spirals you know obviously i don't think the u.s is ever going to go bankrupt or anything like that but like when bond markets go and there's people noticing suddenly that the fed can't actually react as quick as it would need to at least for the next few months you know it's gotta it's gotta be a bit wait and see here because if consumer expectations of inflation hitting 7 % even if you know truth relation is at 1 % you can't you can't just go hey we're going to cut rates here yeah I will concede that bond market is the one thing that scares me like when I was waking up to see stocks down 5 6 10 whatever last week wasn't really that worried but then when I looked at the 10 year yield I was a little bit like oh that one kind of like fell that punch sort of thing that that does that is the thing that concerns me because it's behaving in a way and i think the concerning thing is that it's behaving in a way which we would not expect um which means there's probably some technical reason there's probably some deeper reason to it um and that those are the things that worry me when there is some like weird deep technical reason um which can cause things to behave differently and so that's my that to me is like the biggest biggest concern for me or the biggest worry like i'm worried about um what what i've been looking at is credit spreads this is our old our old market obviously as well and those have kind of widened out to to shy 500 bips now is that crossover and cdx cdx yeah i think it's 450 area i mean you are i mean you're seeing here i'm not going to go five percent you're talking about how your company is having to refinance themselves yeah like 10 in a world where they could also be massively affected by trade war and tariffs like that's not a great market that it's not i mean i can't say i'm that surprised as to where it is because we're sitting here with as you said like 10 year at four point almost 4.6 percent and stocks down 20 or you know 15 20 year to date like it's really that's categorically really bad bad for credit like high bond yields low equities um oh yeah that's everything every day i bet high yield and distress is pretty interesting to trade right now like of course man like i think q1 was the highest ever bankruptcy rate in the u.s for many many years um and if i was a high yield bond analyst right now i'd be i'd be worried about a big big tick up in in um in uh defaults here because it's just unclear if the fed when the fed will bail you out like i'm not saying that they won't because if this stuff gets like cataclysmic of course they will you know but but from from now until cataclysm i i don't know if the fed can move quickly in a world where with with and that's what power basically said as well he was like you I can't do anything.

29:22I can't do anything right now. So that's the thing. Whereas me, I think in that sort of world, if Bitcoin sold off again, I think people will buy it. I don't even think it would be an outperformance sort of world. I think it would be V-shaped and then ripped higher. That's my kind of view on stuff. Like, I think people now look in this and go like, right, I held up really well during that. and everything now points to gold and bitcoin being good trades and if it just catches an equity correlation for a couple of days you're meant to you're meant to just just buy it if you have a world where we print some more low inflation numbers and tariffs de-escalate because they have a trade deal or they have some sort of you know agreement where it's like a hold fire agreement for let's say the remainder of this year or potentially even longer and um maybe you have some more developments on the crypto side of things um with bitcoin reserve etc that's still there in the background i think people have kind of even forgotten about that now they've gone from like being too bullish to discounting it now if you have these three things happen where do you think bitcoin can go to number one and number two where do you think bitcoin dominance goes and you know do you have a do you have a real risk on moment like that for global assets and within crypto do we see another like meme coin run do we see an ai run do we see alts run you know i'm still we say we've been saying this for two or three weeks now still looking at the start alts down, alts which include meme coins, AI, everything, just everything within alts, down 60, 70, 80, 90 % while Bitcoin has stayed strong.

31:16I just can't help myself but to help myself to some of these coins. It's a funny punt. I feel as though although we called it all right the last few months in terms of when to at least go a bit more risk off and then fully Bitcoin or maximalism. I feel like we've just flipped a little bit in our Bitcoin dominance views. And I think you're bullish on Bitcoin, but you're like, oh, but now's the time to punt. And I kind of now feel as though Bitcoin dominance could keep going. Like I was a bit less certain on that. I like Bitcoin just for risk reward, but I was a bit less certain that that would be the one.

32:02And then now, now I don't know, like, I kind of feel like in that world where higher bond yields potentially close to like 10 % here, then that's a difficult world to be bullish, a bunch of altcoins, in my opinion. You've just got to be bullish on Bitcoin. I think owning Bitcoin has been a great trade relatively for a while, for the last, let's say, three to six months. But my view is, I think the current levels are such that I want to be more risk-on. and um when i want to be more risk on i feel like i benchmark benchmark myself to bitcoin rather than benchmarking myself to i don't know stocks or even just like dollar dollar amount um which makes you think like i want to own the stuff that's going to just potentially go a lot higher Just how meme coins went crazy in 24 or you had that moment for AI coins at the back end of last year.

33:15I think if we do get a really risk-gone environment, I do think, and maybe Bitcoin dominance still rises, but you see, kind of like this week, Bitcoin dominance rose, but a lot of meme coins are up. I think you're going to see something that people will gravitate towards, whether it's meme coins again, whether it's AI coins again, I'm not sure. those would be my two picks but um i think that's where like i think there's a good chance decent chance of like a 10x trade here and some of this stuff and bitcoin isn't a 10x trade here for the next you know as on a six month time frame but i do think there are other coins out there which have 10x potential obviously materially high risk and if things go wrong they could drop another 90 but i feel like this is just a really good spot i still feel like it's a good spot to buy risk and we bounced from last week but we're not up that much like you know some of these coins have rebounded 30 40 50 since we spoke about them last week but they're still down a lot and they still i think have good multiple potential so um because i feel like i'm more i feel like i want to be more risk on that to me means moving some of my bitcoin positions into stuff that's higher risk with high potential upside but um you know obviously more downside yeah look it's the thing is the moment where you go more into alts sometimes you can dismiss it do you know what i mean and then there are there is that moment where if bitcoin starts to go back up to like 90 100k even in a world where let's say equities go lower you know and bitcoin dominance goes hard there can just be one day where they just do a four or five of x you know um and i think we could uh that could happen that could happen so i agree with you like i'm not that's why i bought some far coin last week right like i i felt like that one looked like a quilt spring there are others which feel not dissimilar to that actually and i think i I agree with you, but I also think that the first move here is still the Bitcoin dominance goes higher.

35:28I think the first move here is still the Bitcoin dominance can just continue up. Part of that is obviously just ETH continually being outperformed, but I just think that I am not bullish, that bullish on macro, if the 10-year is acting like that. That's a pretty fragile scenario. And you need monetary policy to be able to deal with that. And I don't really know when that comes in in the US. So that's where we're at. But both think it's a good time to buy. But I guess I'm more Bitcoin dominance now. I can go higher rather than altcoins. Obviously, I've been in a few different things. I still am, but I'm definitely more adding to Bitcoin bags here rather than anything else.

36:24Farcoin is a world of its own. That thing is just... feels a little bit peppy-ish, I would say, from last cycle, up to 800 million now. I don't know if I'd buy it here because it's obviously up a ton, but it's definitely one I would continue to look at on dips. But yeah, there's a lot of stuff that's still beaten up. If Bitcoin goes to 90 to 100K, you just know what it's like you know like people start coming in and everyone starts wanting to gamble on stuff and i reckon yeah ai and memes you'll see the biggest gains no doubt um i think um a good strategy a very a very simplified strategy i think which i don't hold me to it but i think if you look across the board here you'll see like bitcoin's up ethers up souls up and then look across like the altcoin market or the meme coin market and stuff and you'll see some coins that are down 90 are dead like they're not even moving don't have any volume and you can probably say like you know give or take they're probably as good as dead whereas there's some other coins where there's a lot of volume and they're up they're up like 20 or 30 40 and then they'll move back down with the market and then back up with the market and so so long as that coin has volume it means there's activity and so long as it's moving with a beta to the market it means that you will have that beta to the market so I think that's a good way of like sussing out potential things to own here if you're like if you're like okay I'm worried I just don't want to buy something that's down 90 % and dead forever if you look at stuff that's doing volume on days like today and maybe you don't buy it on a day like today when it's up a lot but if you see us consistently doing volume on up days and down days then I think it's a good bet to say that that's going to move back up again with the market.

38:14And, you know, Farccoin is a great example of that because there's been a ton of volume in it, you know, ever since it came along, I think. So I still, you know, if you look at the AI coins, like there's a lot of volume in AI agent coins again today, and they're all up 30, 40%. So that to me shows like there is life in that stuff. And if you get Bitcoin to 100K, I think there's a good chance, not guaranteed, but there's a good chance that stuff will move and that's kind of how i'm identifying coins to buy here like other than other than our own stuff right and right and i have to say what what stuff so like the stuff that i see a little bit around ai obviously there was a coin virtual which which kind of led that which got a buy my system today and obviously you've been bullish on ai 16z and there's fart coin um there's arc as well which has been mentioned and me just coming as well games yeah just came yeah uh then in memes i guess people are i mean they're reaching for the established ones first but they are reaching for the established ones that aren't cared seemingly yeah uh so it's like you on solana i would say maybe bonk just because there's there's obviously a correlation between that and Falkoin at the moment.

39:33Pengu? Is Pengu a buy here? Obviously they've been very, very busy. Mog is down biblical amounts from the highs. Maybe that has another run. And then L1's if you start to see an activity come back, you could see it return to Solana, Sui, uh sonic which i've mentioned eith payvax all having decent days today feels like some people are thinking the same as you you know it feels as though maybe maybe start buying some of the non-deck coins yeah i think so it's um what i would say is like you probably don't need to fomo in on days like today and i think on days like last friday or last monday when they're down a lot those are the best times to buy i think the nice thing about well in my opinion the nice thing about this volatile market is you get good entry points and stuff you want to buy but you have to have a bit of grit to buy on those disgusting days where it feels horrific like sunday and that day um incredible day trading environment this this market um if you just fade the moves if you just say bitcoin is going to 83k no matter what uh it's it's a good trade if you just don't listen to the news and just look at the price and just buy when it's down a lot and sell when it's up a lot then you'll make a lot of money that's kind of what i try and do i try not to get too engrossed reading about what's going on because otherwise you start to develop theories in your head and then you start to get you know just your narrative right yeah that's what i'm kind of saying like it does feel as if that that if you're following correlations it's there with global lm2 now we have a we have a chance maybe to shoot up but if you just and we now have the narrative that can kind of make that happen in my opinion like which i didn't think we had uh for a little bit you know I felt like we were looking for a catalyst about a month, two months ago, right?

41:47Where it was like, we're waiting for the Bitcoin reserve. And then the Bitcoin reserve was a bit of a disappointment. And then we might not see any sort of movement on that for like six months. So we're like, well, this chop now could go until June. I don't know if we're coming out of it just yet, but I do think that I wouldn't want to bet that we're not. Let's put it that way. I would be owning Bitcoin here because the downside is capped in my opinion and there's a shot but this is the narrative that takes us out in my opinion I think we're in for one of those lovely summers of risk that's what I think what does that mean?

42:32do you know just one of those lovely summers where everything just goes up long nights looking at your crypto portfolio

42:42that's why well I kind of you're a big viewer like Rao you're a big seasonal trader guy aren't you you think we trade with the seasons I do I think there is something to that although yeah but it feels like the selling May was selling selling Jan this year so I'll check the horoscope yeah Just see what the... Anything else you can talk about this week, Dan? Obviously, it was a very macro-focused week, and I think we've kind of gone into stuff. Obviously, dollar, gold, higher, stocks. I know you bought some stocks this week. I did. I bought some stocks for the first time in three years. Wild. Take us through that.

43:32What happened there? um well the real reason was that i couldn't i basically wanted to buy more bitcoin um and it's the first time i've actually started putting in like fiat back into like by the day like i've sort of exhausted all my stables that i had so trying to transfer money from my revolute account um and then revolute basically decided to close down my account so um and even though i've left the uk i still have uk bank accounts which all now have restrictions on how much you can transfer to crypto so i wasn't i basically was just couldn't transfer enough size to coinbase and gemini and whatnot to purchase crypto so i was like okay what can i how do i just get i was like i just need to get some risk on like how do i get just anything like give me how do i get some risk on just some sort of risk yeah i was trying to try to whack up my old like interactive brokers account that changed my phone number i couldn't log in and everything so i basically ended up having to put some money into like a managed fund which was like one of these like retail friendly like newbie investor type products where i'm paying like 20 bips um the most boomer fund you could find basically it's like i'm paying like 20 bits for them to like manage this fund and i had like a grad in canary wharf email me saying hey like you know let me know if we can chat about your investment goals and stuff but it was the only way i could get on some risk so i said to speak so i've got a bunch of money in this fucking like random managed fund which is like it is like basically the nasdaq and it has decent allocation to ai and robotics and stuff is like emerging tech so i kind of like like the breakdown but yeah it's not i would rather pick my own stocks and pick what I put it in pick what I put it into but I had to that's the fastest way I could do it so well you got the risk on you got the risk on yeah that's what matters I was laughing at you on the day that you were it's fair you asked for it a little bit on the day you were like ah just before that big reversal of a Nasdaq you were calling it out on the timeline anyone would have been embarrassed they'd probably drop the biggest reversal ever but then it was up 12 % so then I didn't say anything but there you go I'm glad I'm glad we've moved on to to stocks anyway we'll get public guys on let's yeah let's bring on bring on Andrew Parrish otherwise known as AP Abacus co-founder of Arch Public just remember you guys can check out their algorithmic trading platform for free if you head over to realvision.com for slash Arch But anyways, Aldrew, welcome back to the show.

46:26What's your take on the last week? Well, my take on the last week is context, right? So here's the context. In 23 and 24, the S &P was up 24 % and 25%. Year to date, the S &P is down 9.8%. Okay. so um it is comical to me as somebody that you know cut his teeth in trad five for 20 years to watch the absolute just um almost euphoric to some extent depending on your politics conversations around you know markets are crashing the world's coming to an end this trade or that trade is gonna you know set the world on fire and yet eight days ago we were We're at the same exact level we are across basically every asset on the planet.