Chris Sullivan: 3 Crypto Ideas That Could Change the World

27:44It's something new and interesting. Is that sort of the way that you think about it as well? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if you can look at how disruptive Bitcoin is to anything centralized, And then you go, okay, well, Bitcoin is the answer to central banks and centralized government. Okay, great. What is the answer to Meta and Google and Amazon largely? And you've got, I would put Helium and Filecoin as like your top D-Pin picks there. And then not necessarily D-Pin, but there's a new Solana phone that myself and my team have ordered. There are all these hardware launches and releases coming out that are really going to give people that choice and optionality that should have been there the whole time, but people just got used to the idea of being sold things for convenience.

28:35Oh, wait a minute. What is your business model, Google Search? George, you're stealing my data from me without my explicit permission, it's implicit permission, selling it to God knows who, creating all kinds of cybersecurity issues, just ask Fortunet or Palo Alto Networks, and then not paying me what has been largely termed a data dividend, Ash, we're a little old, that phrase is over a decade old. and wait a minute, I get a chance to be on a network I choose. I can mine and stake and get rewards on that network and be walled off from having my patterns monitored, my purchasing monitored, and my data stolen from me without my explicit permission.

29:22So Chris, we zoomed the camera out here a little bit, talked a bit about the philosophy, the background. Why Helium? Why now? So I like this chart a lot, um especially grab that chart yeah you know at the short time frame um it's it's actually giving us some overlapping corrective action so obviously similar similar to uniswap this is hard to argue like you've got macro secular trends to label and monitor and put some our counts on and yada yada or elite waves were dow theory but but realistically you've got the same sort of frothy speculative of spike, a monstrous correction, a period of accumulation and consolidation, then a breakout and now a correction against that breakout.

30:10Historically, no matter what the asset class is, to buy on a correction against a potential new trend is the least risky trade period. Because like just being orthodox, you put the stop of the low here and you buy and that's your risk, right from a from a technical standpoint but here you if you even zoom into like a shorter term chart this the pattern's got a nice compressed wedge and it's right at a what i would call support shell so you can if you're really really a short duration trader you can set your risk right below that shelf either accumulate wait till it tags it and turns and you've got a really really risk-controlled situation here.

30:52And it's already 40-plus percent off its recent highs, similar to Uniswap, maybe a little less. There were some listings, like if you go to different exchanges, there's obviously different prices. It listed on Kraken within the last 90 days, it spiked to like 11. So there are different exchange prices for smaller assets like this. But this thing's 89.6 % off its previous high. A lot of room to go up and then confirm a new uptrend. So I think here, if you zoom in a little closer, you can see that action where there's a lot of price action is basically from that farthest left peak all the way across, essentially where there was a reactionary bounce during a big downtrend and where there was a retrace during the big uptrend.

31:42That would be your first price target if it's going to break out of its recent high. Chris, how about stops on this? Here, I think you could do a tighter one based on the overlapping corrective action where, give or take, I'd probably go to high fours just to be given a little breathing room. because with the volatility of crypto, you almost are certain if you put a stop in the order book, it's going to get rot. Like almost it's a certainty. So I hesitate to be so black and white with the exact amount because even if you give it a 5 % kind of bandwidth, you're probably still going to get whipped.

32:32But nominally, it's like a 20-point type stop. By the way, for those who are listening to this conversation on audio and not seeing the chart trading right now on my screen,$5.69. Yeah. Chris, let me ask you this. What could potentially upend the trade? What are the risks? So risks similar to, as I mentioned, to USWAP token unlocks. So in this case, the inflation rate is about 12%. So you have that annual for arguably another, I think it's 22 % or 23%. So similar in what's left to come out over time. I think what would upend this is really if the rate of change of new adoption to the hotspots, the hardware itself, and or once that's saturated enough, the user base says, hey, this sucks.

33:27Then there's not a tangible fundamental reason to be long. But with assets like this, you can stake and get a high single-digit yield if you're a long-term holder of this. And if you're just a trader, you can do what's commonly done in alts, and that's quote-unquote narrative trade. This narrative is just a lot more solid than the silly meme coins. Well, it's so interesting, Chris, because this clearly incredibly, incredibly early, right? We don't ultimately know how this is going to shake out. But boy, what a big idea. What an idea, if successful, could significantly change the way the technology is implemented and used in the world today.

34:07And also, you know, by the way, we should say dramatically change the economic model behind that technology. And that's worth investing in, right? So on the short term, you've got to, I think, 10, 11 was its recent high. So that's almost a 2x from here. on the negative side, you've got plus or minus 20 points from here, where it would then make some sort of corrective new low before bottoming because it would go under its current support shelf. But realistically, like you said, all right, well, if it does that, I'm buying there too. And I'm going to see what happens on the fundamental side and see what happens on the use case side.

34:43Because all that I would recommend for viewers to do is make sure if you're underwriting an asset, more use cases is not a negative potential catalyst. That is a positive. So I'm looking for very diverse, yet specifically disruptive opportunities. And I think with Helium, they've got their internal and their collaborative deep end projects that have a lot of potential upside. And I think the more people get into it and use it, they really quickly shun the captive this oligarchical current system that most people are used to. Chris, let me ask you a question, something out of left field here, just a big picture question.

35:25You and I have been doing this and have been watching technology, have been watching financial markets for a really, really long time. And we have these conversations, particularly with guys our age and people who are older, guys and gals who have seen this before. One of the things that comes to my mind, obviously, is what we saw in the late 90s, early 2000s with the dot-com revolution. We saw obviously just giddy, ecstatic, silly valuations for ideas that were just terrible. And yet, at the same time, what we also saw was the development of the infrastructure in Web 1 that was going to sit underneath Web 2, which now Web 3 is attempting to displace.

36:02I mean, it is just when you think about it from that perspective, it really is fascinating to watch. As someone who's a historian of markets, Chris, I'm wondering what you think the lessons are that we learned for good and ill during that period, some 25 years ago. There's a number of them because every create and destroy cycle has its attributes. I think really you saw a lot of FOMO investors push up bad projects. right um this is like really into 99 and q1 of 2000 before it was before the uh the truth came out to record being put a reckoning on everybody but at the same time i think what you did is you had the right startups and this is a direct corollary and i know you said this up this way direct corollary to now you had startups that are are still around now that built the entire infrastructure, right?

37:00Whether it's, I mean, cloud computing was not, you know, it was just a whisper back then and now you have to use it, right? So I think you end up getting these projects that go down to the ashes with the rest of them, but then are still building and then materially add value to be the anchors of the new uptrend, both in the price action and in the actual real world use cases. I don't know if I've told this story before. Cisco is actually one of them, if you want me to point one out from that period. Yeah, by the way, the chart on Cisco is fascinating to look at, right? Never, never got back to 99.

37:42Not even in significantly devalued nominal dollars. And that shows you where human error comes in, right? And back to my Fraser buying management. And that's why I mentioned at the beginning of the show, you see this giant 21 arc, right? Huge hockey stick. And like we're pointing out with Cisco, there's no guarantee that it takes that previous high out to confirm new uptrend in orthodox terms. So that's why I think understanding that the pros and cons, both macro and micro, just prepares you to be a better trader and have a more successful trade. Right. It is also fascinating to think about in terms of the underlying functionality.

38:24I remember back in, I guess it was 2000, maybe late 99. I was working at Credit Suisse. I was one of the 20 something year old kids was one of the young guys back then on Wall Street, working in a building on 49th Street here in Midtown Manhattan, that weirdly I later worked at when I was at Coindesk 20 years later. Anyway, moral of the story, one of the things that we were fascinated with, there was these two services. One was called Urban Fetch, and the other was called Cosmo. And you could go onto a website, and you could literally buy a candy bar, and they would come and drop it off at your building for free.

38:56Now, obviously, the economics of that didn't make any sense. I was working with a bunch of people who had MBAs who all knew the economics of it didn't make any sense. But what's fascinating about it is it totally presaged the world that we live in today, where essentially that's the way we get a lot of our goods, right? Whether it's Amazon or GoPuff or whoever else who comes and brings it to you on a bicycle or a car. I mean, it's really fascinating to see how the seeds were planted then for the services that now we just completely take for granted are totally unremarkable and nobody thinks about it.

39:28That's the state of nature for human beings, Ash. um you know i i could argue either direction of whether it's good or bad but again i'm i'm a austrian so free market free choice is what we're all about i do think that socializing in a restaurant setting is perhaps better than ordering food every day but what do i know that's just my personal view um i'm totally with you on that just lunch man never ordering dinner i i think with With this stuff, let's look at how Helium transitioned from their own blockchain to Solanus. It was with compressed NFT. And I know we're not here to get really in the weeds on some of the on-chains type of aspects.

40:12But my point with giving that example is the magnitude of competency one has to have to generate and create this stuff is so far above most Web2 corollaries that it's not even fair to compare. Right. The minutiae, the detail is so great that it just blows me out of the water. And the more I dive in, the operators and the developers have to have this historianics economics background to know what they're creating. Now, they're just creating it under the auspices of the model, the tokenomic model, and the shared incentive structure will induce participation. But it's mere existence alone is my point that is absolutely fascinating.

41:02By the way, talking of exactly that, trade ideas, the way that this show is typically done, very different. You can't talk about these things without, to a certain extent, going down the rabbit hole, talking about the philosophy, talking about the first principles, talking about the potential for change. Otherwise, even trade ideas don't make sense in this space without a little bit more background and context. With that said, final thoughts you'd like to leave us with on helium before we move on to trade idea number three. Yeah, you know, I just want to, you know, put the risk side on and like their cycle low was like 120 ish.

41:35So there's essentially a lot of room to that cycle low. So I just would be prudent with where you're entering, if and where you're setting a stop and be very conscious of, of what's what am I going to do if this then that, right. And that's lastly what I would read. But I would also have folks research Helium Farm when they have time. It's pretty fascinating. Okay, trade idea number three, Avalanche, AVAX. First, talk a little bit about what it is and why it's gotten your attention. I like L1s in general. And again, I like - These are layer one smart contract protocols, obviously, we should say.

42:15Yeah, why do I like L1s? Because infinity stuff can be built on it. Current use cases that are real time on Avalanche that is in the press and is what are known knowns in the trading world. They are doing basically subnets with major corporations. And there's not a lot of other tokens doing that. I would argue it's really one of the few outside of Ethereum and Ripple. and they've done this evergreen subnet with JP Morgan and essentially giving enterprise blockchains that can enter public blockchains is essentially what this process is or the subnet is. And to me, what that does as a trader is it at least partially de-risks the risk of total loss where obviously the project is not just going to disappear next week, next month, if they've contracted with 10 S &P 500 companies to develop these subnets and launch these subnets for these enterprises, right?

43:21So I think - Well, that's interesting because that's like a sort of a new world. It's the intersection between traditional commerce and decentralized networks. Correct. Stable cashflow is based on revenue from B2B. And really, to me, the B2B side is one of the most sexy things to look at long-term. Obviously, the white paper Bitcoin, it was intended to be that. And it's turned into a store of value. But I think solving for, last I looked, the aggregate cost of B2B globally, which was greater than$150 trillion, was 610 bps. What happens to GDP of the planet if that's reduced to 20 bps, Ash? If more of human beings keep their money rather than being confiscated from for using their money.

44:11So I think this integration may speed up the process to which that reduces the friction and the costs. Yeah, I'm always fascinated talking about friction and costs. I know this is a little bit off, but to talk about the idea of L1s here, one of the things that's fascinating to me is when you read those studies about remittances, basically people who go to countries to do work, literally doing the hardest work in the world under the blazing sun, picking crops and doing that kind of stuff. And they essentially pay one month of their labor to use their money and to transfer it back home to their families.

44:45I mean, you look at something like that when people say, well, you know, this crypto idea, it all seems a little bit pie in the sky to me. It's like, well, yeah, maybe because you're well banked and you, you know, you maintain a balance of half a million bucks in your checking account, you don't pay fees. But boy, those are just compelling use cases. I don't think it can get more compelling. And then what I also think is maybe just below that from a compelling standpoint is when I'm appraising a stock, right, at best I get an update once a quarter. Then I've got to be on a call. Then I've got to wait to read a 10K and 8K or whatever.

45:21And no one's ever going to be super transparent and bearish, right, on a conference call with Wall Street analysts. I've been on hundreds of them. So you're really never going to get the transparency you need to be a long-term investor, at least not what I need, right? And at least not from most management companies. I won't use a blanket statement. Some are better than others. But with Avalanche, for example, we know the inflation rates, give or take 15. We know that there's 13%, 14 % more supply coming on before it's fully released. we're never going to know whether a stock is going to do a secondary and perhaps even worse do a buyback which is literally self-liquidating a company and as an investor you really don't want either occurring so you have the same you know sort of dilution or non-dilution risk that's a variable both positive and negative short-term or long-term but with all these l1s and anything defi you you absolutely know all the facts on the front end and can appraise how you want to navigate them going forward i think that's that's an order of magnitude more important than people are even recognizing is that pull up the chart for avax and take a look and chris let me ask you this why now on this trade i think number one from a bottom up standpoint the three chains that they've had that are now complemented by the, I think it's 60 plus subnets can give you what I would, how I would phrase throughput to economic value transferring to the token itself.

47:05So I think again, more use cases, more potential valuation, more potential use of the token, et cetera, et cetera. The negatives are this similar thing on the chart. This is maybe a little less like straight up and a little more distributed than the other two, for example. And then it's got a little, what I would argue is a little more legs in the current uptrend in terms of backfilling and patterns. And then again, beautifully, you've got overlapping corrective action that if you look at the correction into January, that's kind of your short-term risk where you put a stop there. and you really have from here all the way to the all-time high, it's close to 150.

47:51I think it's 145.70. I don't have it directly in front of me. And that's what I would use as sort of my benchmark. I do expect this asset to make a new high because it is a major competitor to Ethereum. And in our view and my view, you could have maybe more than 100 L1s become wildly successful over time. Trading on my screen, 47.15 right now on CoinMarketCap. Looks like the high, I'm ballparking this eyeball, and it looks like about 135 bucks back in November of 21. November 21 was its high. Let me actually zoom in on that here. 144.80. November 22nd was the all-time high. Of course, your mileage may vary depending upon what data set you're looking at.

48:44Correct, because there is variance. A lot of crypto's problem set and benefit is that you've got captive order flow jurisdictionally. So naturally, there are going to be different prices. And you're not able to arbitrage those as easily as you could cross-exchange and cross-platform when it was a lot more open than it is now. But I think using two or three exchanges and or Uniswap as your price reference is prudent. Yeah, and to your point, those Deltas have flattened, but still no Reg NMS here in the United States for crypto. No, sir. I don't know how they would enforce that, Ash. So arguably, as more participants come in, as we've already seen, you're going to get a compression of Delta between exchanges.

49:36And then it really is like execution fees and costs, right? And then what's your order type that you're entering? If you, I would, this is probably the best thing I'd give people. Do not do a market order in crypto. Please don't. And you can, you could search why I'm saying that. But just post a limit order like a gentleman or woman and watch your trade. But yeah, sorry. Going back to the chart, I like the, literally, it's funny we're doing this today. I like the setup now because on this one, the things I look for, obviously, price and volume as a quant are two of the key factors. Recently, a bunch of whales laid into AVAX, as I was correcting.

50:22You've got a 62-ish intermediate high to 67 range that I would say would be your first resistance point and or price target if you're accumulating now. And then your downside, you really have to probably about the 30s level before you take that out. And then it may move to a new cycle low. So I think that the risk reward here is very transparent and contained like it is with the other three trades or the other two trades. So there's the target. There are the stops. What's your time horizon on this trade, Chris? I always I don't even I mean, I don't even bother if my time horizon isn't forever.

51:00So I start from forever and work back. Right. Um, you know, if you're, if you're trying to day trade, stop. And if you're intermediate trend trading, what I've said is Chris, is that because when they're day trading, they're up against you and people way better than me, but yes, that's just, you know, I don't perform brain surgery and neurosurgery, Ash. Um, I don't change my own. So I go to specialists to do that. Uh, and that's why hedge funds and private funds exist is because there are people who've studied and done this their entire adult lives. They're specialists in this. I would never say expert because no one's an expert in anything.

51:38And that's what we focus on. And that's literally like me going to Johns Hopkins and competing with the head of neurosurgery. I've read books on it, but I'm pretty sure I couldn't cut your skull open and operate. And this is perhaps even more dangerous because you're dealing with people's wealth, which to most is more important than their health, unfortunately. Yeah. Chris, let me ask you this. You get this essentially time horizon of forever infinity on this one. What could change your mind? What might upend the trade? Yeah. But that was a long-winded way of saying if you're our intermediate trend trading, which is really the only time horizon, you really need to be looking at weekly charts with at least six months of duration to your trading objective.

52:25So that is the reasonable and responsible way to approach this if you're doing it yourself. What would upend it would be some sort of smart contract and or subnet failure or a plethora of them, a canceling of corporate enterprise contracts for subnets, and then a, you know, just again, like top down lead crackdown on L1s at all. Let me just say, listen, if you're watching this show right now, you're a Real Vision Pro Crypto subscriber, you can go check out my conversation with Iman Gunasir, who is the founder of Aval Labs, co-founder of Aval Labs, I believe. I am one of the major creators involved behind Avalanche, a very deep dive conversation that I did with him to get a sense of what his philosophy is on this token, these markets, the use cases, all the things that we're talking about here.

53:24Straight out of the mouth of the founder. This is brand new, by the way. I think we just posted it here. on Real Vision Pro Crypto within the last, oh, call it three weeks or so. Chris, with all that said, final thoughts you'd like to leave folks with on Avalanche? And then we're going to get to our viewer questions. Well, I think final thoughts would be, Goon is one of the greatest blockchain developers on earth. And I put him next to Vitalik. And that has no influence over the investment or trading plan. but because I also know that side, it's unbelievable to be able to invest in stuff like this.

54:02And largely all of these developers are unbelievable. Anatoly for Solana, same thing. There's almost no one that competes at a Web2 level, like not to pick on Amazon or Google, but I've not seen anybody on the dev side come close to any of these folks. Why do you think that is? I think largely the attraction of the space, if you have skill and talent, is the answer. That's answering your question. Also, I think in order to achieve this, the fact that we even know who Anatoly is and Vitalik is, they must be one of the most skillful developers, at least in the blockchain space, if not software. period.

54:53So I just think the cream rises to the top. And because this is the most innovative, creative space that can usher in what I would argue is a new human renaissance of beauty and creativity and freedom, like that's why. And because there are those who know economics as well as you know, that know that like we can't continue down this road of abuse and oligarchy because it's just giving up more rights, more power, more money, and having no way to vote on how it's spent or stop people or fellow citizens from being censored or unfairly punished, et cetera, et cetera. So I think that's kind of why that's a feature of crypto where it's the smartest, most talented people on the planet are in this space, period.

55:41Not any other sector even comes close. Yeah, it's also fascinating to me that the young developers, the guys and gals who are in their 20s, you know, studying at the undergraduate level, at the graduate level, folks who are not political, who are not coming into this for philosophical reasons, are just fascinated by the technology. That if you're somebody who maybe, you know, doesn't really care that much about economics, but you're just super passionate about the underlying technology, that this just draws people into the field. There's just something about the just the coolness factor right it's like the internet was in the 90s you had been making a lot of money working at a bank in 1999 uh doing development of vax vms systems but if you were smart and young and ambitious that wasn't what you wanted to do right and when you marry the economic and the philosophical modalities to the cool factor and the innovation that's how you get change right like whether it's fire the wheel the printing press right and what do they all do what did the wheel do decentralized travel what did the printing press do decentralized books and newspapers so this is all an ebb and flow that's occurred many many many many many thousands of times in human history especially the part where they didn't where they didn't count this far back um and it's always a a piercing of decentralization and so that's what's fascinating exciting about it and that enhances your risk of work we just analyzed it from a you know intermediate trend perspective on okay 62 67 intermediate resistance and price objective if we buy here downside to 30 but back it all the way out and go hey this is one of the assets that could be around for decades to come that may actually help us in more ways than want.

57:33Chris, one of the reasons I so enjoy having these conversations with you is you are truly a triple threat. You can look at this from a technical level, as we've just walked through on the charts, on a fundamental level, but also from the perspective of first principles, the big ideas which we've been integrating into these trade ideas here today, which I think is just fascinating and super cool. With all that said, I wanted to open it up to viewer questions. Listen, if you're watching this live right now, jump into the chat, ask some questions. I'll put them to And Chris, our first one comes to us from Sreechip, who wants to know, Chris, please share your thoughts on the Nier protocol.

58:08We run nodes on Nier, full disclosure. I do like a lot of the narrative so far. I want to see more proof. But like I said, I am. We are long, full disclosure. And I do run nodes. One of the things that we do as a firm is we want to see the chain itself. Running nodes allows us to achieve that. And then we're willing to risk, let's say, like 25 to 30 basis points so that we can collect all of the data, monitor and value it ourselves. And we do a smart contract scoring and rating internally. So I would argue I don't have enough information to be predictive per se, and there's really not enough chart action.

58:53similar to these to like give you a dollar-based price target. But I will say we are structurally bullish near, and it is one of the projects we are closely watching. Hey, let me ask you a question. Is this really interesting when you talk about collecting data? There was a news story today that I saw on Coindesk. A16Z released Jolt. This is their first major research development project as a kind of technology shop in addition to an investment shop. It's a zero-knowledge virtual machine. We can talk about the details of that some other time. But Chris, one of the things that's really interesting to me is when you talk about the data gathering that you guys are doing over at Hyperion Decimus, it's interesting because we're starting to see this space where the technology development and the traditional hedge fund functionality are starting to blur a little bit.

59:45You're in a unique position to talk about that. How do you see that playing out? Yeah, I mean, I could do that with extrapolating a deeper response to the previous question. Essentially, because this is so new, right, and even 14 years of Bitcoin is still new, we are charged with our fiduciary duty of analyzing and codifying factors that either contribute to alpha or degrade alpha, right? And so we've been forced into this technologist position that's out a little bit enhanced by the background in quant. And then, you know, our whole team are devs and HFTs. And we've actually built software for crypto as well.

1:00:32So we're maybe slightly more qualified to comment. But I think it's one part wanderlust and one part creating a matrix of data points that both give the blockchain dev team our appraisal of it, as well as understanding, hey, does this transpose to alpha in price terms? Or does this information mean the smart contract is risky? Is it not risky? And what consultant advice can we do for the space to enhance the overall improvements? And that's why like even one of the older assets, but cash just went through having, right? The thing about open source is anybody can go on GitHub and go at it, right?

1:01:16So these things can arguably never die either, Ash, which is so interesting. So hopefully that helped to answer. We just got in one more question and it's a great one. It comes to us from Jack Burnett, who wants to know what your thoughts are on Firedancer. This is the new independent validator on the Solana network for anyone who may not. Yeah, I haven't personally tested it yet. One of our team has. So I'm not qualified to comment through personal experience. Obviously, Solana team has matured quite a bit from the last cycle. So I would argue it's probably a lot better than it even advertised.

1:01:53But since I have not tested it, personally, I shouldn't comment on it. Yeah, obviously, I haven't tested it either. I'm, again, agnostic on price. But I will say this, that the folks who are in the Solana community are really excited about this because it provides a type of redundancy and heterogeneity in terms of the validators. One of the things that if you're wondering what all this abstract talk mean, obviously one of the challenges that the Solana network has had has been some of those services. And the goal here with Fire Dancer is to solve that problem, to make the ecosystem more diverse and robust, and to provide a level of service that's more similar to something that we've seen with, for example, Ethereum.

1:02:32Yeah, and its X-Chain is the corollary on Avalanche, where they use a combination of Nakamura, Consensus, and Byzantine to say if a validator fails, the network was still functioning. me so I I in general I uh applaud and approve of the move to do something like fire dancer um and the more the chains get protected and the better yeah I mean basically it seems like the consensus verdict here is a step in the right direction verdicts still out we'll see how it works uh after it's been stress tested over a number of months yeah I would be I'm critical of monolithic change top down. But again, I need to test to further comment.

1:03:13Good question, though. Chris, another awesome conversation here. We've got about, oh, I don't know, 60 seconds or so left. Final thoughts, key takeaways that you'd like to leave our viewers and our listeners with from this conversation. Don't trade. No, I'm kidding. Just really, really construct a weight of the evidence trading plan. And don't like think, overthink, or be emotional at all. Compartmentalize bearish factors and potential events. And always remember, it's the unknown unknowns that are not priced in. And then on the bullish side, try to extract the narrative and get to the fundamental.

1:03:55And that is a backdrop to then doing classic TA or quantitative analysis. and the combination cannot hurt you as an investor long-term. Chris Sullivan, Hyperion, Desmas, always a pleasure when you join us, man. Thank you for having me. Thanks for joining us and have a great afternoon, everyone. Thank you for watching.

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