Circle Soars on IPO, Pump.fun to Launch Token | Rekt Vision

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1:30Happy to be here and happy to be together. So hopefully see you next time in Singapore. Real Vision will be there. I look forward to seeing you all.

1:51Welcome back to another episode of Wrecked Vision. I'm here with OSF. it's not been the best week I would say in crypto but definitely not the worst uh feels like it's bad for alts rather than uh other majors bitcoin's still kind of hanging out above well 104k roughly at the moment eth eth hanging out uh just shy of 2600 we are doing this show a day early by the way we're recording this a day early because osf is traveling it's in Lisbon for a conference this week so you're going to get the classic OSF doing the show from his lap on his bed not been the first time it'll be the last time how are you doing at the moment on OSF yeah I'm good I'm a bit I feel a bit hungover but other than that other than that I'm good I guess

2:49yeah it's just it is nice to see people in real life I think I know like last week was Bitcoin Vegas and there's a few things there's ETH, CC and CAN coming up so there's a few things coming up while the weather is good right now in Europe at least so it is nice to get off the screens I think and it's been a quiet it seems like it's been a quiet week really like Bitcoin seems to be ranging between what 103.5 to 105k it feels like and I mean there's a lot to talk about meme coins are obviously down quite a lot the Solana ecosystem is down quite a lot and some of the altcoins seem to be holding up kind of well ETH seems to be holding up pretty well so yeah quite a lot to unpack I think but hasn't really been much to do I think in the last week or so am I just too disconnected to make that judgment no i think you've been right i think we did say i think we left the show last week when it was slightly selling off as well and then we've kind of just tread water since then and we said look we're going to use these opportunities to to kind of go more risk on i have been doing that in eth basically which is kind of what i've been saying and it's eth has actually held up okay on the week but um if you started to catch some of the falling knives in some of the other old coins it's not been the prettiest i think or at least definitely some of like the more mean coin based stuff and i would agree with you that as somebody who is in the trenches every single day and by the trenches we mean like trading in the more left curve stuff let's say it has been a bit of a change of tone i feel like where people are really kind of saying this could be kind of the it of the meme coin on chain Solana period, which has been with us for nearly two years, 18 months, really.

4:52Just because it's been very, very tough to make money in some of those sort of trades. And like even the more recent, let's say, narrative, which is this internet capital markets thing, has also kind of imploded. And then we got the news that PumpFun are actually going to do their own coin. this week. That was taken particularly bad by the market. Pump Fund, there was a story out, I think it was by Blockworks saying, they are looking to raise pre-sale for a coin, billion dollars looking to raise a$4 billion valuation. Let's break that down a little bit. Firstly, what did you think of the valuation?

5:28And then secondly, what do you think about this means for the market. So valuation to me seems probably probably in line. I know optically maybe it looks low if you look at their annualized fees that they've generated. But remember, that's just like one year of fees and we don't know how sustainable those fees are. It seems like right now actually the fees are trending lower. So I think that's one thing to consider. Like, yes, maybe optically it looks low, but you have to have some there's some guesswork involved with what the actual run rate of fees will be the revenues will be i guess over the next few months and years um the other thing is like do fees go back towards buying the token if so how much um how impactful can that be i know we were speaking about the search just earlier but comparisons between hyperliquid and radium maybe i'll let you speak about that because it was your smart port you brought up i just consider stealing your point but um decided against it um um so yeah i don't know like i just think it's one of those things where people immediately go oh they just you know they did 500 million revenues what how much revenues did they do like last year like 700 800 mil something like that and they think oh that means it's like super low but remember you have to like assume that they can that's sustainable and that they could continue that and revenues do seem like they are declining alongside other competitor platforms etc so i don't know i actually think four billion feels about fair to me i can see it pumping just to pump because everyone just apes it at the beginning but feel like um you know it might want to buy at four bill for a quick trade but i don't know if i would like hold on to that one that's the way i view it yeah i think that's pretty fair I think we do this a lot in crypto.

7:21We take one year's worth of revenue and we extrapolate it. I've seen it happen with OpenSea, with Ape, with BoardApes, right? Or sorry, Ugalabs even. And now it feels like PumpFun's the one for this cycle. It does feel that they've timed it at a time where it suddenly feels like the market's maybe drifting away from them. They can maybe still command a high valuation, but maybe that would be lower. Firstly, we've seen a lot more, lower in a few months, that is. We've seen a lot more competition over the last few months, and there's this sudden feeling that it's not been easy to make money in these Solana meme coins or Solana on-chain games, which Pump Farm was a big part of.

8:06Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. the hyperliquid point that i made is that a lot of people are comparing to hyperliquid but i think hyperliquid has two things going for it number one it's an app which actually people use i don't think many people actually open up on a daily basis they know it as the main pump sorry main launch platform for coins but it's not a it's not a website i have up on my favorites you know you barely ever go on it people interact with it normally through some other form of tech either a trading bot or they'll maybe see it on something like text screenings or that sort of stuff.

9:13It's not necessarily the best interface, which just kind of goes against it, whereas Hyperlip, I think people use, actually use the app. And the second thing is, for now, it's not a chain. Now, if you're going to raise a billion dollars, I think there is a case that they could decide, we're going to do a meme chain here. And maybe they run it back in the same way that Hyperliquid has, where it gets valued as a chain rather than an app. If you value it as a chain, it can be seen as relatively cheap. If you value it because it makes more money than Ethereum, it makes more money than Solana. But if you value it as an app, then some of the Solana apps aren't far off it.

9:55And it's tough to have like a$20,$30 billion valuation like Hyperliquid has managed to get. So I think it's fair value. I think it probably rallies, but I don't think it does that well after that. I think it's some amazing trade. And I think I'd be worried about the trajectory in the current market. The second thing is what do you think about this means for the market? Because a lot of people said that that was the other side moment, like them coming out and launching this coin and that this is kind of the top. they are it's the final exit scam basically of the whole thing what do you make of all that i think i think that's a bit overblown in my opinion also remember this is the information we have is like the rumors published by an article so we don't even know if anything is like fully verified but it does sound like there's some merit to what's coming out but we don't know the exact mechanics we don't know the exact numbers these are just rumors and meme calls have sold off quite a lot on it because people seem to be expecting people i guess are freeing up liquidity to put it all into you know into this um into the pump thumb coin so i don't know like i think i don't think it's that similar to other sides you know like if they do do this for bill and if it does do really well and it goes up a lot and people make a lot of money i think a lot of that liquidity that's made flows back into memes in my opinion um so it feels like the effect to me might be more of like you had this temporary liquidity suck now and then it reflows back in if it's successful now obviously if it goes down and it's not successful then that's really bad because and that's what happened with other sides right like it just went lower and the nfts crashed then that ends up being like quite a big liquidity suck because everyone the thing that everyone sold to the thing that everyone bought um and so the other you know positions for is down and everyone's like you know down money so that i think is the risk but i don't know if the timeline seems very like overly bleak about it like everyone seems to be like this is the top this is the end of meme coins and all that kind of stuff at the end of slonica system i don't think it's the end but i do think it will go through like a tough period for for a while now and i do think it's hard to hold any of that like solana meme stuff now over the next few weeks while this pump fund thing is in the background i think and prices are showing you that now like you know we had a big drop yesterday and then we've had another big drop today and it seems to be very you know it seems to be meme coins across the board to be honest with you but obviously the solana memes are hesitant getting hit the most and it's not just even solana meme coins even like solana ai coins and like other stuff like a lot of stuff is down i think as people try to like free up liquidity i guess yeah i think i think a lot of stuff is down uh i think it's part of it's that it's people freeing up liquidity to do the trade and i think the second thing is people thinking the meme coin meta might be similar to the nft one where you've seen this end, which takes a long time to come back from.

13:08I'm the last bought into that too, but I do see the parallels. And I think it doesn't really matter what you believe or not. If enough people believe it, then the coins are going low. And it's not just been Solana. It's been across all kind of meme coins, except certain brand coins that have like had a pretty bad week, I would say.

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14:33I said it last week. I think the easiest trade really is to come back to ETH because I just think that it's more simple. And sometimes when you try these beta trades, they can be really dangerous. But I do think that now is the time, actually. Solana's tripping over itself. It feels like Sui had those exploits. The ETH killer narrative is the weakest I've seen it for the last two years. and I think there's a good shot now that it can outperform. What do you make of major series? Are you also in the ETH camp now? I'm in the ETH camp. I think my view on ETH before was like you won't lose money buying ETH at 1500.

15:25Will you be the best performer? Maybe not. Now I think like you I'm a bit more bullish on eth continuing to perform it feels like the wind has changed in terms of sentiment i think if you look at charts it feels like the there's been a trend reversal and um you know as i've mentioned a few times on the show i do believe in an alt season happening and coming and i think eth can do very well in it so um i like eth a lot and i think owning eth itself is a good trade i also like owning eth beta trades as well i do think that's just the way the market thinks the problem is what's the what do you what is the eath beta exactly that's the that's the problem um so like there will be some eath beaters that will do really well but it's hard to identify them i think and i think we've spoken about how like l2 is maybe not like the best necessarily the best player i think in the past stuff like lido um and then we spoke about uh eigenlayer last week as well could be options you know one that could be a good option um which is a bit of rogue one but ethereum classic it's a bit of a meme coin really but ethereum classic does move quite a lot when when he pumps so um a bit bit of a left field suggestion there but that's one to look at for um and i think i think i don't like arve and maybe we'll get onto a bit more why but like circle now is trading at whatever it is 10 plus billion dollars on the break yeah where is and it makes$200 million a year net profit, suddenly maybe the trade can come back for these sort of DeFi, to be multiple trades, I think.

17:11That's the narrative of everything about Bitsis today. Like, wow, like, Circle suddenly proves that, like, the business, the stock market values these businesses much higher than the crypto market. And one of two things happens there. Either they all then decide to IPO or a lot of these coins start to reprice. So maybe that's a trade. Yeah. Yeah, I think that makes sense. I think that's a trade. I also think you should consider memes. I think Pepe, Mog, Rekt, I think are things that can all do well if ETH really rallies. So that's another thing to consider. And then another slightly left-field suggestion would be NFTs.

18:00And actually, some stuff has been moving. Punks are up, Mibits are up. I spoke about this with Raoul a couple of weeks ago. But that's another thing to look at too. I wouldn't go balls deep in it. I wouldn't fall for NFTs by any means. I think having some exposure to it would be good. Good to know.

18:32I do think that NFTs can have a moment. I've been the one who's pitching it to you a bit more and being like, look, our NFTs are a trade here. Our NFTs are a trade here. There's an argument here that punks could be a good buy. Obviously, they're expensive, but then you could there's a range of other like nfts even at lower price points which i think you could look at um it may be the trade like it to couple with that narrative that people are have slight let's say solano exhaustion or at least on chain exhaustion nfts i mean you're at that nft conference today it's interesting to see how the nft community has stayed relatively strong as its own thing, you know, like its own community.

19:20It's done very well through the bears. I don't think I've seen, there's been like, there was like a meme conference for a while, but like it already feels like that's already like shutting down. Like the community aspect of memes, meme coins at least, hasn't been as strong as NFTs. And there is an argument here that like you could see a bit of a return to that, which I think would be, would be interesting. What, other than punks, what do you buy? Yeah. I would say... Red Guy is relatively... Red Guy is interesting because if you compare... So lots of NFT projects have tokens now, right? And so let's look at something like Doodles, right?

20:02Like Doodles, what's the full price of Doodles? Like 2 ETH or something? Or am I just completely off there? 1 ETH, Doodles full price of 1 ETH. But the Doodles token... DOOG trades at a$24 million market cap, right? $30 million FTB. Now, Rektguy trades at like a 0.4 with floor price. So it's less than half of the floor price of Doodles. But the market cap of that, the FTB, is$120 million. So the market cap there is like 4x what it is in Doodles in the token. but the nft is like 50 percent lower than the doodles nft which i think is quite an interesting comparison and it's actually like that for all the like the rect guy floor price is like very low compared to all the other nt floor prices and i get it i get why because like you know people are realizing and understanding that rect is where the rect coin is like where the value sits and that's the thing that's moving but um you know i think look at pudgy penguins you know they have a really high NFT floor price and a very high FTV and I think two things can move up together but I think that's an interesting one to look at because of that screams cheap to me yeah you've got Rekki also unbiased crypto dick butts I think Rao is always really like bullish on those um Pudgy Penguins obviously is slightly higher I think those would be a good one Bored Apes we've said we've said on this show yeah Bored Apes we've been interesting trade here to get back in and then Punk.

21:38So the good thing about NFC's right now is because they're slightly unloved, or they have been for a while, you can't get in every single price point. Maybe they do come back. Maybe you have a little bit of a flurry here while everything is falling apart in the rest of the left curve bit of the market. Let's get on to Sarko, because that probably has become the biggest story of the week very, very quickly. it was a story that's kind of gone through a few twists and turns. Originally, we heard about this$4 billion valuation. Then they released the numbers. They only made like$200 million a year, which is much, much lower than Tether, for example, which makes billions.

22:22So everyone was like questioning the cost of the business. Then there were rumors that there was like a bidding war for it between XRP, Coinbase potentially, a couple of other names were mentioned. And then they decide to price the IPO. They priced the IPO at$6.9 billion. It looks like it's doubled right out of the gate. So we're about$13,$14 billion in terms of valuation. What I do think about this is that crypto companies with a unique story, I think, to generally trade at a much higher multiple. You can see that with what happened with MicroStrategy, where it trades 2 plus X book for a long time.

23:04This is the first way that anyone has been able to invest in the stablecoin narrative purely. And I think that's quite valuable. But what do you think about that as a valuation? Are you a buyer here at$13 billion?

23:24Obviously, it was cheap out of the gate. 13 bill feels like it's more reasonably priced to me at current numbers but if there is growth which there could well be that i think that could be an interesting trade um it's tempting isn't it well it's very tempting the growth narrative is the one that you can question because lots of banks and we even heard about a lot of tier one banks basically came out and said they're going to look at a stable coin everyone everyone is trying to get into a stable coin market so you could argue that they have had a head start but they're about to get they come up come up against some of the biggest institutions in global finance all trying to do the same thing you know but it's first and you kind of feel like it's got the it's the first time to actually have that narrative like you wouldn't invest in jp morgan for a stable coin narrative where you could just invest invest in this and just be like, I'm bullish on stablecoins, therefore I'm going to invest in Circle.

24:22In the same way that you may have invested in Coinbase back in the day, albeit that stock, or you invested in MicroStrategy, or now Strategy. So I think it will trade well from here. Let me put it that way. It's just got this unique story, and I think it's one of the only things that people are just relentlessly bullish on in crypto still. Whereas everything else that like, oh, you know, it's become a bit tiresome. Stablecoins and stablecoin adoption, they had it at that Bitcoin conference, right? We're going to have the public guys on later who were there. But it felt like stablecoins was the name of the game, even on Bitcoin conferences.

25:08Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I think that makes sense. And the other thing about stablecoins is it has a massive trade fight interest too. And that's obviously proven in the price action of the IPO today. But there's something that I think those guys can get their heads around and can jump on board pretty quickly. And there's also like a relatively defensive business as well, right? It's not that cyclical, if that makes sense, compared to something like Coinbase, which is like super cyclical. So yeah, it's true. it's a pretty attractive business at all times. It feels like if we do ever get another bear market where everything gets nuked and Circle goes down with it, that's something that I think would be really good to buy in that nuk.

26:01That's what I would look at. In some ways, it would be a little bit pro-executive because you can imagine in a recession and bond yields come down, people suddenly start questioning Circle's ability to make money, right? We're in a high-level environment, but that's probably a good time to buy it because you know they're probably going to go back up higher and it's a good time to get involved yeah do you think Pumfarm should be an IPO? kind of makes you feel like IPO? oh god, I don't know about that whereas Pumfarm made$800 million

26:38now they're trying to raise up$4 billion kind of makes the pick so the thing with an IPO is you have to tell a story. IPOs are very much about storytelling. Remember, a lot of the retail market, and I know this because of speaking to my in-laws and stuff who buy into the IPOs, and they send me the one pages of the stuff they get from their brokers, the people upselling to them, and it barely ever talks about financials. It has no multiples or anything, and it's very story-driven. And it's like, if you like the story, then you kind of buy into it. So, you know, with Circle, it's a story that you can tell, which makes sense to a normal person who's not in crypto.

27:20But you can't really tell that story, a story of PumpFun, to people who aren't in crypto, right? Like, who's going to really understand that or get that? And that's why I think the hurdle is for them to IPO. Like, it needs to be a story that not only people understand, but people believe in as well. Yeah, I think that's fair. The story is less easy to tell with PumpFun, like 4chan for memes that I think necessarily rolls off the tongue for a lot of different tradfire investors. I guess it's a more broad point, though, is that what I was saying before. Do you think we're now going to see a spate of IPOs of crypto companies?

27:58Because what we're seeing here is that the IPO market is pretty hot for some of these crypto narratives, particularly unique ones. and yeah, pump fund may be a little bit more difficult, but lending, that's been another big one. Are they potentially, or one of these other big lending companies could get involved? Do you think we're now going to see a spate of IPOs for crypto companies in the US? Yeah, I think so. Let's see why not. It seems like the natural progression of the way things are going, where adoption increases and people are more on board with things and it's an exit as well. It's an exit for everyone who's been in it for a while.

28:40So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see more of it and I wouldn't be surprised, especially if something like Circle does super well and people make money for it, there's going to be appetite for more, I think. What else do you think could IPO? Well, the names that roll off the tongue are like Ripple. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about them IPO-ing for a long time. Some of the exchanges, again, like Kraken, they've talked about IPO-ing this year. But I think more broadly, this makes me think about DeFi companies. DeFi companies traditionally have been pretty decentralized because they were worried about regulation.

29:12But DeFi regulation seems to be coming to a head in the US at least over the next year or two. And you could see some of the tier one companies here. Think about an IPO. Uniswap. Uniswap and IPO. They're based in New York. um Arve I believe is more European based at least from the founding perspective but that would be like a tier one curve you know like companies that make money in crypto and haven't you know Uniswap never turned on the fee switch right yeah and they could potentially just go we're just gonna IPO instead yeah because it's better for us what um what do you think um about the fact that many of these companies have offshore token foundations which are separate legal entities to the operating companies many of which are maybe like a us company like the labs companies and in these offshore token foundations many of these companies may have a treasury of tokens worth like you know hundreds of billions of dollars maybe even billions in some cases.

30:28How does that look when that gets pitched as an IPO? Do you think people bucket those offshore foundations in? Do you think they just view them as separate entities? Does it get baked into the valuations or not? How does someone think about that? Yeah, it's a super interesting question. It's not something that I would necessarily know from a legal perspective. I would say that it really depends on the token. If the token itself has got some sort of explicit utility or flywheel in place, like, right, we are doing this with this amount of funds, we're doing it with this amount, then I think it can be an impediment.

31:14If it's a bit more governance or undefined, then I think it doesn't necessarily become an issue. so I think I think it really depends and I think you're going to see some creative solutions to this basically like there's a lot of managers right now or owners of crypto companies that will look to that they'll look to do this there's also been a lot of rumors of like dissolving all these right so like ApeCoin for example came out this week and said we're probably going to get rid of ApeCoin down like it's been pointless for us. We're going to take over ownership of it and you'll see what happens.

32:00They're going to have an unbelievable amount of lawyers and there's a lot of value for that company in owning Ape itself, right? Because that's where a lot of the treasury kind of sits, quote unquote, for Yuga Labs now. So let's see how they do it. And then let's see, I think you've probably got a blueprint for how the people will do it. Yeah. Yeah, but I think it's going to be interesting one to to watch i think it's the right question because circle suddenly now put the put the spotlight on wow there's going to be an ipo season here for for crypto companies and who's the best position for that and who isn't um one more question also if you so if these ipos do really well let's say you know circle obviously is killing it do you think that has an impact to current crypto prices like bitcoin and majors and other stuff like bitcoin hasn't really moved on it on today's like for me even though there isn't necessarily a direct link i would think like more attention for crypto to just generally be good for the market like i would have expected this circle price action to kind of like lift the entire crypto market but it hasn't really am I just wishful in that thinking or do you think there is any merit to that I think short term it can be a bit of a liquidity event the people that I know who participate in the Circle IPO are all in crypto which makes me think that maybe some money was spent on this rather than on altcoins right now and I do think there's a narrative right now which could just be own circle own bitcoin right own bitcoin own stable coin exposure and sit back and relax so i i would be a little bit wary of assuming it's going to be good but but but if you want to pull people to crypto and like the narrative around crypto it it's tough to be like overly bearish because i think people the only way that circle really does well is also like the chains start getting used a lot and you start to see real scalable TVL starting to get put on things like ETH and Solana.

34:14I think it may be slightly responsible for the sell-off, but I do think it will also rally in the longer-term implications of it. Maybe before we get the ice pump guys done, let's have a little bit of a refresh of where we're sitting then in terms of how risk on you are. You were 80 % last week. I don't feel like you've done anything over the last week. No, I haven't just been gallivanting around Lisbon, really. Yeah, so I think that's pretty much fair. And your risk is mainly ETH? Yeah, I feel like ETH, ETH, Bitcoin.

34:56That is generally where I am. I have some ETH beta pairs, which I think are like those sort of meme coin stuff within ETH. That's where I'm at right now. We have remarkably similar bags. We have remarkably similar bags right now. Yeah. It's tempting to dabble in other ults and stuff. I'm very tempted by that, but I think I'm happy with where I'm at for now. I don't think it would change anything. Yeah, I've really put... I mean, obviously I told you when I pared down all my Solana exposure and started moving into more ETH and ETH beta. On the dip, I really just bought ETH. I bought a little bit of Farcoin again just to have a little...

35:36Couldn't help yourself. Yeah. Couldn't help myself because it's down like 60 % or 40%. But I don't want to steer too far away from just majors because I think this could also be a bit of a chop here. Like, it seems a bit more persistent than I originally thought. And that could be very painful for some of this more dangerous stuff. Okay, so we're not panicking. Feels like majors aren't really panicking either. but there is a lot of pain right now and a lot of people are here every single day because they're very exposed to non-managers let's say but um and we would both buy ETH and probably ETH beta on any more dips cool let's get on the Arch Public guys great to see you guys again yo here we all are and there were four we hear you've had a massive uh weekend or week in Vegas uh but not how people often do a massive weekend at Vegas.

36:35You were there for the conference. How was that? It was fantastic from my perspective. It was Vegas, obviously, can accommodate so many people under one roof that it was like a giant slumber party. Lots of gambling with nothing but Bitcoiners at the table and lots of excitement in the air. You could kind of feel the energy. and a noticeable amount of politicians and foreign politicians. There are a lot of Secret Service walking around during the conference. So I had a blast. It was exhausting. But the concentration of, I think the stablecoin piece of it was a big deal. It was mentioned probably 6 ,000 times from the stage itself.