In short
Bitcoin rally skepticism tied to the “Clarity Act” odds rising; BTC technicals look bullish short-term, but sustained bull-market conditions aren’t met. The host argues ETF/institutional and U.S. retail demand are weak, so price may face resistance near major moving averages. He then lays out “financial conditions” he wants to see improve (DXY down, global M2 up, real yields easing, credit spreads/volatility easing) before buying more aggressively. He also covers ETH weakness vs BTC, and compares several alt/TradFi charts (Robinhood vs Coinbase; Aerodrome vs Hyperliquid; SoFi).
Guest backgrounds
No guests mentioned; the episode is hosted by Kris Bullock (with “Chris” as the co-host/speaker in the transcript).
Key claims
BTC can rally on existing crypto/stablecoin liquidity, but without new money (ETF inflows + U.S. retail + easier macro), it’s not “game on.” ETH’s value accrual is limited because activity shifts to Ethereum L2s; ETH/BTC downtrend since proof-of-stake and EIP-4484.
Notable examples
Coinbase Premium Index negative; ETF flows YTD about -$5.5B; BTC needs weekly closes above a “megatrend” line; ETH gas/DeFi/NFT era vs current ~fraction-of-a-penny L2 costs; Robinhood chart stronger than Coinbase; Aerodrome breakout/retest vs Hyperliquid consolidation near the 20-week MA.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Overview and Bitcoin Rally
0:46 to 1:53
Discussion about recent market news and Bitcoin's price action.
“But we're going to dive into all of that and see where we are on that front.”
Bitcoin Analysis and Resistance Levels
1:54 to 4:14
In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's current price levels and market conditions.
“Definitely want to chart them what they're doing.”
Institutional and Retail Buyer Dynamics
4:15 to 6:20
Exploration of institutional and retail buying patterns affecting Bitcoin.
“But the reason I think that is because of a couple different things.”
Conditions for a Sustainable Bitcoin Bull Market
6:21 to 7:58
Discussion on the necessary conditions for Bitcoin to maintain a bull market.
“They're just pulling it out of stables and running it up.”
Understanding Real Yields and Their Impact
7:59 to 9:16
Explanation of real yields and how they influence investment decisions.
“And so I'm going to spend a few minutes talking about what that looks like from a charting standpoint so that you can look at that on your own chart and sort of know when those conditions are coming into place.”
Analyzing Financial Conditions and Bitcoin
15:07 to 23:56
Explore the relationship between financial indicators and Bitcoin's market behavior.
“And also you can see how, well, here, let me minimize this one.”
Market Predictions and Entry Points
23:57 to 28:00
Discuss the timing for entering Bitcoin trades based on market conditions and indicators.
“this sort of$100 or 100 threshold rather, that's going to be a good sign for me too.”
Ethereum's Decline Post Proof of Stake
28:00 to 29:50
Explore how Ethereum's proof of stake upgrade affected its market value.
“So this was Ethereum prior to proof of stake against Bitcoin.”
Ethereum's Future and Investment Skepticism
29:50 to 31:00
Discuss the skepticism surrounding Ethereum's potential as an investment.
“And so this was the product of a major fundamental change in how Ethereum is structured.”
NFT Craze and Gas Wars Impact
31:00 to 33:10
Understand the impact of NFT trading and gas fees on Ethereum's value.
“You know, honestly, people who don't necessarily understand the nuances of what drives this and why ETH is good or bad from a technical standpoint, they're going to see, oh, it's the number two crypto.”
Show all 19 chapters
Layer 2s vs. Ethereum Base Chain
33:10 to 35:30
Analyze the benefits of using Layer 2 solutions over Ethereum's base chain.
“You know, those ETF, I'm sorry, those NFT launches, those mints, you know, for like art blocks and stuff like that.”
Robinhood vs. Coinbase: Market Comparison
35:30 to 38:00
Compare the market performance and investment potential of Robinhood and Coinbase.
“All of that still happens on the base Ethereum layer, but you get the performance and the cost efficiency of the layer two.”
Investing in Aerodrome vs. Hyperliquid
38:00 to 41:30
Evaluate the investment potential of Aerodrome and Hyperliquid based on market trends.
“It's already setting much, much higher highs.”
Analyzing Market Trends and Technical Setups
42:00 to 46:23
Learn about key technical indicators and market trends affecting cryptocurrency investments.
“So for it to come back down and touch would constitute like a proper mean reversion in this larger uptrend.”
Discussion on SoFi's Market Performance
46:23 to 47:40
Explore the latest trends and buy signals for SoFi and its market position.
“Well, Lance, ask him yourself, because I think he's in this chat right here.”
Moving Averages as Essential Trading Tools
47:40 to 56:00
Discover how to effectively use moving averages for trading decisions in crypto.
“And then we're seeing here over on this one, if we look, it has reclaimed the 20 week moving average, which is this red line here.”
Understanding Trading Indicators
56:00 to 56:57
Learn about the importance of using moving averages in trading strategies.
“It doesn't have to be more complicated than that.”
The Clarity Act and its Implications
56:57 to 58:24
Explore the potential impacts of the Clarity Act on the crypto market and regulatory landscape.
“Well, I mean, in terms of sell the news, it's hard for me to say because there's a lot of traders that are going to trade around that.”
Market Reactions to Regulatory Changes
58:24 to 59:15
Discover how traders typically react to news events and regulatory approvals.
“You know, I don't know if that answers your question.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:05Kris Bullock:And we are live. Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Trading the Markets. This is the show where we talk trades, we look at and we take your questions. So if you have any questions, just drop them here in the live chat on Discord or on the platform or even on X because we're live there as well. And we will try to get to as many as we can. So interesting news going on today in the market. The odds of the Clarity Act passing have increased. And then Bitcoin jumped up a bit on that. But then they both pulled back. So I don't know where we really are. But we're going to dive into all of that and see where we are on that front.
0:55Kris Bullock:And I see the questions coming in. Yep, we're going to get to as many as possible. But Chris, happy Wednesday. What do we got today?
1:03Bijan Maleki:So, yeah, I want to spend a little bit of time talking about, you know, where Bitcoin is at to start with. There's been some good conversation in the Discord and the Hive chat channel over the last couple of days that I'm going to kind of draw from. And so I want to talk about what Bitcoin is doing and why I'm a little bit skeptical as to how far this rally is going to go. and then I want to get into looking at sort of the financial conditions and talk about what I need to see, like what exactly I'm looking for to feel confident in a much stronger, longer Bitcoin bull market. And so I want to talk about that.
1:40Bijan Maleki:And then, yeah, then we'll get into all kinds of stuff. We'll talk about ETH. We'll talk about Gito and Ondo and some other ones that are looking really good. And we'll talk about Hyperliquid and just get into it. Yeah. So that's what I've got for today.
1:55Kris Bullock:I love it. Let's add Canton to that list as well. Definitely want to chart them what they're doing. I'm just front running the questions because I know we're going to get a Canton one, but Chris, I dive into it. Take it away.
2:08Bijan Maleki:Yeah. Yeah. So looking at Bitcoin, like here we are, it does look good. Like I admit we're on it. We have a nice rally going here. It's not too overextended. The DMARC count is still low at only a three. Note that we are, let me turn my highlighter on, note that we are kind of right at a resistance level here based off of this little cluster right here. But I like how we've kind of poked back up into this range. Like we had this big here and we lost that range and broke down and set this new range here. And we've broken back up into it. And so far we're holding, I mean, it's only one, well, it's actually technically two days closed back up into this range.
2:48Bijan Maleki:So I like that. That's bullish. We are seeing some some good things happening here Like and even if I go over to kind of my weekly my weekly chart framework here and look at Bitcoin It's you know, it's on the verge of flipping a weekly megatrend signal like it's above the line It needs to close two weeks above this line, you know with some momentum here This is what I'm looking at right here. So it needs to close a couple above here with momentum And then if we zoom in on this one here This one also looks good and in that it lost its red dot Typically these red dots are momentum signals and so losing a red dot tells me that the downside momentum is waning Which of course is good.
3:30Bijan Maleki:That's what we want to see. So like I said, it's it's looking good. We also had We had a trade is flip green a couple days ago, which is always a good sign It generally does a really good job. I like that It works more on the daily time front too. And so again, we're seeing positive things. But my sort of contention is that there are other things that I'm seeing that tells me that I don't know how much juice this really has. I don't know how far this is really going to go. I sort of suspect we're going to get another run up to maybe, you know, these moving averages here, either the 20 week or the 200 day and get rejected kind of like we did here.
4:12Bijan Maleki:And let me tell you why. And this came up in the Discord yesterday. But the reason I think that is because of a couple different things. One of them being ETF flows. We know over the last however long year-ish, whatever, the biggest marginal buyer of Bitcoin has been institutions. That's what's really kind of kept it going. And we know it's had multiple terrible weeks in a row. And actually on the year, you know, year to date, we're negative flows by about five and a half billion. And so over the last three weeks, it's just been barely flat. It's been barely into the positives coming out of a bunch of several negative weeks in a row.
4:54Bijan Maleki:So this is telling us that institutions dumped a bunch of Bitcoin and then they haven't really been buying back. It's been very, very neutral. So if if institutions are the biggest marginal buyer and they're not buying, well, what else? What else do we need? So we need retail buyers. So let's look at retail buyers. And one of the ways I like to gauge retail buying is by the Coinbase premium index. And what this tells us is the Coinbase premium index means is the price of Bitcoin higher than the than the global average on Coinbase. And so if it's higher on Coinbase, that tells you that we're getting a strong retail bid from U.S.
5:34Bijan Maleki:buyers specifically. I mean, Coinbase is available in other countries, too, but it's very U.S.-centric. And typically throughout Bitcoin's history, Bitcoin doesn't really sustain big rallies unless it's getting a strong buy, a strong bid from U.S. retail buyers. kind of like we had earlier in the year here. And then going back to some of the rallies that we had back in 2024. So right now you can see it's very much in the negatives. This is telling us that people in the US aren't buying Bitcoin right now on Coinbase. And that's kind of, it's a good proxy gauge. Yes, it's not the be all end all, but it's a good way to gauge just general sentiment of a strong contingent of Bitcoin buyers that helps propel and fuel large uptrends.
6:19Bijan Maleki:And so if if U.S. retail isn't buying and if U.S. institutions aren't buying, there's nothing really fueling this rally other than just money coming out of stables, probably from people that had parked money in stables back around here and sold either a few weeks back or a few months back. They're just pulling it out of stables and running it up. This is more like kind of short term price action coming from money that's already in crypto. And we know for a bull market to run for months at a time. It can't just be money that's already parked in crypto. It's got to come from outside. It's got to come from institutions.
6:55Bijan Maleki:It's got to come from your cousin or your sibling that asks you about Bitcoin, you know, and goes and makes a Coinbase account and starts buying Bitcoin. And it's not coming from that. We can see that it's not coming from that. So that's why I'm like, yeah, this is cool, but I don't think this is going to be the bottom. I don't think that this is going to be what sustains this rally into months into the future. And so I got a question on the Discord. Okay, well, if that's your take, then what will it take for that to be the case? What do we need to see inflows from ETFs? What do we need to see retail coming in?
7:31Bijan Maleki:Like what conditions need to be in place for that to occur? And so I'll just kind of read my answer. I'll paraphrase it real quick and then I'll dig into what that actually looks like from a chart standpoint. But quickly, I just said, I think the dollar index, the Dixie needs to come down a good bit. I think global M2 needs to resume its uptrend. I think real yields need to ease a lot. I think I'd love to see an interest rate cut. I don't know that we'll get that, but that would certainly help too. And ultimately, we just need the right financial conditions for big money to work its way out the risk curve.
8:05Bijan Maleki:And so I'm going to spend a few minutes talking about what that looks like from a charting standpoint so that you can look at that on your own chart and sort of know when those conditions are coming into place. And so let's start, let's kind of start with real yields for a second.
8:27Bijan Maleki:If I can find the right chart here, one of these, here we go. Okay, so real yields, what kind of, what are real yields? Real yields are basically the yield you get, like the net yield you get after inflation. So like I said, you put your money in a bank, you make however much, 2 % or you put your money in a bond, you get 2 % to 4%, give or take. But then when you subtract inflation from that, your real yield is actually whatever, around 2 % give or take. And if we look at these, they're all hovering around between the one year bond and the 30 year, they're all anywhere between like 1.83 % and 2.9%.
9:07Bijan Maleki:So that's the actual real yield. And so what happens is if inflation goes up or bond yields come down or some of those mechanics change, it makes it so that real yields actually dip into the negative. And that means that if you're holding your money in bonds or holding your money in a money market account or something like that, suddenly your yield isn't outpacing inflation. You're actually in the negative. And so when that condition occurs, it forces people to take their money out of these safe havens like money market accounts or bonds and put them into riskier assets so that they can still get a return on their money.
9:43Bijan Maleki:But if real yields are favorable, for people with a lot of money, go out the risk curve. Like, why would they go buy Bitcoin when they can make 4-ish percent on a bond or even real yields at around 2, almost 3 % on a bond? You know, there's just less incentive for that. And so that's why we're not seeing money go out the risk curve into things like Bitcoin and gold or whatever. And that's why we're seeing these all these assets not doing great. And so if we look like let me zoom in on this chart. These are the real yield charts. We can see they spiked up quite a bit over the last, you know, month plus, give or take.
10:22Bijan Maleki:They've all run up quite a bit. And so when this happens, this makes the conditions less favorable for risk assets. And we can see. So I have this financial conditions index that I talk about a lot. And these real yields is just one component. There's four components of this financial condition. There's real yields. There's credit spreads, which I'll get into in a second. There's the dollar, like the dollar index. And then there's equity volatility. And so I want to look real quick. Let me kind of shrink this. And let's talk about real yields. I've talked about this in the past and just sort of how it can impact Bitcoin and some interesting observations if we go back and look like so up to Round about let's say August of 2022 so in this in this bear market of Bitcoin This is kind of when everything so right in here is when everything changed we can see big bear market here We can see real.
11:19Bijan Maleki:Yeah, real rights real yields whatever running way up But if you go back and look and let me zoom in here, if you go back and look in the entirety of Bitcoin's history, this chart only goes back to 2015. But in the entirety of Bitcoin's history, they were all like real yields were favorable almost that entire time. They were all in this green sort of good favorable section where it's like this was a lot of incentive for money to go way out the risk for all through this entire time from like 2015 all the way to 2022. And then when we had this big change happen that, you know, the sort of COVID big bull market peaked and rates started increasing, we can see this green line is interest rates.
12:01Bijan Maleki:It kind of coincided with that obvious interest rate shot way up from zero all the way up to, you know, four, whatever, four plus percent, five percent, five and a half and back down to 3.75. And so now if you look ever since that time, so this entire bear or bull market run that Bitcoin has had since 2023, since the beginning of 2023, real rates have never been back in that green section. They've never been down here. Like the whole regime changed in that time and it's never been back there. And so I think maybe you might ask, well, if we've never been back down in this green section here, then how did we even get a bull market at all?
12:41Bijan Maleki:Like if these if these conditions weren't favorable this entire time. And it's because there's there's more to it than just yields. And I've talked about this on a number of shows. We know that like barring a few very specific catalysts like the ETFs that happened here and the Trump election that happened here. Bitcoin largely has gone sideways over the last three years. And if you were with us in that time, you remember that there were huge swaths of time, the boring zone, we would call it, in the moment where it would, for months at a time, back in 2023, back in here, very, very boring. But in this whole huge stretch in 2024, from like March or April, all the way into like October, we were bored out of our minds.
13:24Bijan Maleki:Because again, nothing was favorable. The only thing that was really driving sort of price appreciation for Bitcoin were these unique catalysts that came along like the ETFs, like the Trump election that sort of caused these independent rallies that caused us to sort of decouple from the financial conditions.
13:43Kris Bullock:So to note too, that those were narrative driven too, not really fundamentally driven. Exactly. Yes. Very good.
13:51Bijan Maleki:Very good. So another thing. Oops. So what are the other financial conditions? How do they come into play? Um, let's see. Where is it? I've got to minimize here.
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15:06Bijan Maleki:So there's other things. And also you can see how, well, here, let me minimize this one. You can see how this one kind of measures all those financial, and it gives them equal weighting. So there's real yields, like I said, there's credit spreads, there's dollar, and there's equity volatility. And so you can see where even though real yields have been tight and restrictive, really for this entire stretch here, for literally this entire stretch, there's been plenty of periods where sort of the net financial conditions were eased and flowing and positive for investment. And so that's because the other of those three conditions sort of outweighed the real yields.
15:51Bijan Maleki:But we can still see that anytime we had a big green or a big red spike here in these financial conditions, it coincided with a big spike in real yields also. Like right here, right here, you can see it was a spike. Even just some of these little ones here and here was spike, a big one here, you know, a big spike here. And then in this latest sort of regime here, we can see it's not even so much a spike, but it's a proper trend upwards. So that's why when, like, if you look, for example, real quick, let me pivot this over to looking at, let's just say, like, the S &P. The S &P peaked kind of back here at the beginning, end of May, beginning of June.
16:37Bijan Maleki:And that was right when this flipped really red to the upside. But even in this sort of neutral phase right here where it just wasn't strong enough to register either a full red bar or a full green bar, it was just kind of barely neutral. It can be neutral and that can still be sort of Goldilocks conditions because this was a huge rally in the S &P that literally stopped the day this flipped red. You know, that this flipped red. And so and it coincided with a big spike in these real yields. So right now, what we're looking at, if I kind of go back to Bitcoin, what we're looking at is just we need all of this stuff to ease off.
17:20Bijan Maleki:We need these to come down. Now, if there's a rate cut, that automatically changes the mathematical equation. There's going to be automatically a dip in these because the rates, the bond yields and the savings yields automatically drop with a rate cut. So that would be cool. That would be ideal. But it will also drop with inflation dropping, which we can see that it is. So that's another mechanic of that component. So it might be getting there. If we look at the dollar, we can see that the dollar, let's talk about the dollar for a second. Now, for the longest time in, say, the past year to date, and going back even more than a year, quite a bit more than a year, we can see that the dollar has really just been hovering in this long sideways range for many, many, many, many months.
18:05Bijan Maleki:And just right around the beginning or the end of June, it broke out of this range that it had been in for all that time and is now well entrenched above it. So this is putting pressure on this, too. This is part of the problem as to why conditions all of a sudden suck and we're seeing downtrends in stocks and everything. And this is problematic. This was a break from this regime that we had been in for a long period of time. And then if we look at global M2, we can see too here how, yes, it's in a bit of an upswing now, but it too has largely just been trending sideways for, I mean, the, you know, April, I mean, since April, basically.
18:47And so we need this to break out.
18:50Bijan Maleki:When I said earlier, when I was reading my quote from yesterday, we need the global M2 to resume its uptrend, which it's kind of starting to, but it still needs to set some higher highs. It hasn't really. So we need M2 to break out of its uptrend or break back into its uptrend. We need the dollar to come back down a lot, which I said, and we need real yields to drop back down. Oops. We need real yields to drop back down a lot. That will flip this to green. That will be at the conditions where it's no longer favorable for big money to be parked in safe haven assets like money market accounts and bonds.
19:29Bijan Maleki:because suddenly they're not going to be outpacing inflation with those investments. And that will force that money out into risk asset. Right now, that's not what's happening. So that's what we need to happen. That's what I'm looking for. So until that changes, there's no incentive for ETF buyers, for big money that buys ETFs to buy Bitcoin ETFs because they can make adequate enough returns in completely risk free assets. So that's what we're looking for. That's what I'm waiting for all of those things And so that's kind of you can put that I've put these all these indicators are available in trading view I've talked about them in the past Yeah, you can find them just search for I think you can just search for my name blastoplast And there's all kinds of you know the real yields monitor.
20:19Bijan Maleki:There's the financial conditions There's there's all this stuff It's all free and trading view and you can watch these conditions and then you'll know and so Now, that's not to say that like Bitcoin can't still go up or stocks can't still go up. But the problem is, is they're swimming against the current. So they have to have a much, much stronger narrative. They have to have much, much stronger sort of stimulus for them to outpace that undercurrent, you know. And so you want to be investing when financial concerns are loose and when everything is easy. Then it's easy mode, like I keep saying.
20:54Bijan Maleki:Right now, we're not in that. It doesn't have to go full green. it can go just neutral and that still is plenty enough. Even in this, look at this Bitcoin rally here was still in a neutral state. So even a neutral state is better than a red state. And that's easy enough to sort of facilitate a rally. So that's why I keep saying this, this isn't the time to be going all in. This isn't the, this clearly isn't the start of a, bull market because there's just no incentive for that money to be in Bitcoin right now. And so that's what we're looking for. Those are the conditions that I think need to be in place and what needs to happen for all of that.
21:37So that's what I'm watching for.
21:41Kris Bullock:Yeah. I think that was a good way to come about it because I think that's kind of confusing a lot of people, right? If ETF flows are basically negative or just almost not coming in positive, retail is not buying. I think the general thought would be like, well, shouldn't Bitcoin be like$30 ,000 based off of that? But it's like basically old money, for lack of a better term, the money that's already in stable coins is kind of what's propping us up at these levels and preventing us from, I guess, going down into that 40 range. Is that a right way to kind of say it? It's like that old money. And what we need to see is new money coming in, new buyers coming in from retail to start seeing that.
22:26Kris Bullock:And if we have, theoretically, if we have the new buyers coming in, we have the ETF flows kicking up again, and then we have global M2 rising, rates being cut down, all of those financial conditions, then it's game on.
Read the full transcript
22:40Bijan Maleki:Exactly. Exactly.
22:41Kris Bullock:Now, you kind of basically answered this, but I want Luca to know that we are addressing his question right on. So this question came from Luca Rossi. Great World Cup striker name, by the way. Early before the show, Chris, in your last report, you said you had yet. Could you say if and when you are thinking to start? So Luca, that's basically Chris, was that basically the conditions that you described that would make you start your DCA process or is there more to that?
23:15Bijan Maleki:Yes. And that's a good question. I'm glad you asked that because, you know, you could argue I could have started it already. But I do keep coming back to this, looking at this here and going, man, I just, I still in my gut, I feel like there's, there's, you know, still weakness ahead of us. and so um i think uh you know i'm going to be looking for at least the first neutral the first neutral candle i get on this and i look at this on a weekly basis so that's it's not like a daily thing i mean you can look at it on a daily thing but i i think it's really a week weekly is better but yeah um as soon as we start to see this and that'll really kind of you know i'll look at the individual components too i'd love to see the dixie get back down under this sort of$100 or 100 threshold rather, that's going to be a good sign for me too.
24:05Bijan Maleki:And yeah, so that we've seen the VIX come down already. That's kind of leveled off. So that's been nice here that it was spiking up too and causing problems in that financial conditions. So that's one thing that has eased off. That's been good. Credit spreads have been good. So yeah, I'm really looking at the dollar to come back down and just those financial conditions to ease a little bit, and then I will likely buy a chunk. And again, the reason too I'm waiting is because I'm being patient and I still think that we're looking at like a September, October timeframe. And so I still think it's just a little bit too early is my thought there as well.
24:46Bijan Maleki:So kind of all of those things together is why I haven't bought yet, but I think we're getting close. It's coming around. So we'll see. This latest CPI report that came in that resulted in this downtick here in inflation is helpful. It's a step in the right direction. I think the dollar is remaining high just because of what's going on in Iran. That's caused with oil and the oil prices. That's impacting the dollar as well directly. And so there's a lot of moving parts. But yeah, I'm just going to wade through the noise a little bit and look for a better entry.
25:27Kris Bullock:The geopolitical situation is a lot harder one to gauge because it seems like we change every 24 hours and we have a new direction we're looking at. Very tough to gauge that. Shall we start looking at some other charts? Let's take this question first from Fellfroth because it basically starts us at the top of the alt market. So interested in opinions on the recent performance of ETH.
25:55Bijan Maleki:I mean, yeah, from a technical standpoint, ETH looks good. Like, not going to lie. It's maybe not quite as good as Bitcoin looks, but it's, you know, in a nice uptrend, too. I think it's benefiting. It does have its own narrative. It's benefiting from increased on-chain activity, you know, from like the Robinhood L2 launch and, I mean, Hyperliquid. There's a lot of stuff going on on layer twos for Ethereum. I do come back to, and I talked about this a number of times, but I do come back to the idea that none of that really accrues back to the base chain really that much. And so I question how much value we're going to see on the base chain.
26:40Bijan Maleki:Like what reason is there to hold ETH other than to pay for gas? But these layer twos are so efficient and so cheap and so fast that, you know, transactions are a fraction of a penny a piece. And so unlike last cycle, for example, when you needed ETH to buy NFTs and meme coins and all this stuff and transactions were upwards of, well, I mean, right now they're around six cents a piece per a transaction. But there were times in the past where I'm not going to lie, I've paid$200 for an ETH transaction in the past, you know.
27:13Kris Bullock:You've paid a lot more than that.
27:15Bijan Maleki:Yeah, no, I mean, it's crazy. It's crazy. And so back then, it made sense that Ethereum would go sky high because you needed so much ETH to participate in what was going on on the ETH blockchain. But ever since 2023, you know, when they switched to proof of stake, when they sort of shifted the incentives back over or over towards the L2s, even more recently, they made another change that was even more favorable to layer twos. And I can show you actually, let me look at it here. It's really painfully obvious by looking at an ETH BTC chart.
27:55So...
27:57Bijan Maleki:Oh, hold on. Daily or weekly here. Yeah, basically. Well, I even had it noted here. So this was Ethereum prior to proof of stake against Bitcoin. And you can see I even have the lines drawn here. It was just it was going straight up. And it was because there were NFTs were still huge at this point. Everybody was still trading NFTs, even, you know, as late as whatever, September 2022. literally the week of the shift to proof of stake, it marked the peak on the ETH Bitcoin pair. That was the end. And it's never been the same ever since. And so it's just immediate downtrend starting on the day of the proof of stake upgrade.
28:39Bijan Maleki:And then they moved to this new Ethereum improvement proposal, 4484, which again, gave more favorability incentive-wise to layer twos and then the downtrend accelerated that much more drastically against Bitcoin. And so you can see Ethereum has made a number of mechanical changes to their blockchain that have been tremendous from a technical standpoint, but have ruined it as an investment. And so, yes, it did kind of mean revert after this massive, massive downtrend, but it still has gone right back in line with the main trend and is trending down. So this is why I remain skeptical of ETH as an investment and why I'm skeptical of its current rally, even though it's getting some play and some narrative and some hype because of the Robinhood tie-in and things like that.
29:32Bijan Maleki:And I think that that will help it, but I'm still not seeing anything truly fundamental that is going to drive value to Ethereum in the way that it did prior to this major upgrade. And that's been the case ever since then for years now. And so this was the product of a major fundamental change in how Ethereum is structured. And I think unless there is another major fundamental change in the way Ethereum is structured, this trend is going to continue. And, oh, yes, that's that's my that's my my thoughts on ETH. It's ETH's current price right now. So if I go back to the USD pair, ETH's current price is 1935.
30:16Bijan Maleki:And it's right at a it's right at a resistance loss, lost that channel, just like Bitcoin did, broke back down. And it's kind of back up against it as resistance at the moment. And that's not to say I don't think ETH is dead. I'm not saying that at all. Again, from a technology standpoint, ETH is only going to get bigger, honestly, if you ask me. I think that it's still going to be the beneficiary of a lot of real-world tokenization of real-world assets. I think that we'll see equities trading on ETH, but I think it's all going to happen on layer twos. It's going to happen through the likes of Hyperliquid and Robinhood and places like that.
30:51Bijan Maleki:And so ETH as a blockchain, as a base layer, isn't going to benefit from that directly. And so it'll go up because of speculative buying and for probably from a fair amount of just ignorance. You know, honestly, people who don't necessarily understand the nuances of what drives this and why ETH is good or bad from a technical standpoint, they're going to see, oh, it's the number two crypto. It's got a big ETF. It's got institutional buy-in. So they're just money's going to come in from that side of things. But once they realize, oh, wait a minute, it's not what I actually thought it was. And there's no value accrual to it in the same way that, say, there is with something like Hyperliquid, for example.
31:35Bijan Maleki:Then they're going to go, what am I? Wait, what am I? Why am I holding this? You know, what's what's actually the deal here?
31:41Kris Bullock:Yeah, I think the proof of stake point you made is very like you see right on the chart. I think another couple of things also, and you touched on this as well with the NFT craze era that we went through. I can't stress enough how much crazy volume was going on on the NFT space. OpenSea got a valuation of$13 billion because of that era. So that just goes to show you the crazy gas wars that were going on. People were paying upwards of like three, four ETH during high gas moments to secure like mints and stuff like that. So just that that played into it. And then also to the competition for DeFi as well.
32:25Kris Bullock:Like during that cycle, ETH was like I think pretty much the only place that you could do DeFi in. But now like with the rise of Solana, DeFi and so many others that I can't help but think that is also kind of rained on ETH's parade, if you will. So I think the combination of those three things doesn't really make me a lover of ETH. And I've been publicly saying that as well. So, yeah, there we go. Comment. I remember paying$1 ,900 in gas. So, yeah, they lost those keys.
32:55Bijan Maleki:When I did my taxes in 2021, I think I totaled about a little over$10 ,000 in ETH gas fees.
33:03Kris Bullock:Just gas. And that's just one person. And that's just Japanese. Would you consider yourself like at that point, would you have considered yourself like a heavy NFT buyer, heavy DeFi user or like? Oh, yeah, totally.
33:17Bijan Maleki:I was all in DeFi, all in NFTs. And yeah, that was just gas. You know, those ETF, I'm sorry, those NFT launches, those mints, you know, for like art blocks and stuff like that. some of those mints that would sell out in seconds, you'd have to pay hundreds of dollars for a transaction all the time on stuff like that just to even get a mint, you know? And sometimes they would fail, you know? And you would lose the gas, too. Don't even get started. It was maddening.
33:50Kris Bullock:Yeah. Producer question came in. Wouldn't major institutions use the base chain rather than the L2s? So that, in theory, What do you think about that?
34:02Bijan Maleki:I think, well, I don't know. I push back on that a little bit because I think we're already seeing the likes of Hyperliquid and Robinhood, for example, using their own L2s as, you know, as a institution, you know, to trade tokenized equities and things like that. And so and the reason for that is because that way they have like a siloed, you know, like a siloed mechanism to process their own transactions. And they don't have to worry about like in times of high market volatility, you know, NFT mints or meme coin trading or stuff getting in the way of their liquidation engines working properly, you know, because it's siloed on their own.
34:49Bijan Maleki:here, you know, on their own L2, they can benefit from that that way. And also it's much, much faster and much, much cheaper. Like right now, like a transaction on Hyperliquid is a teeny tiny fraction of a penny and it happens instantly. Whereas a transaction on the ETH base chain is, it's six cents. Last I looked a few days ago and it's slower. So yeah, that's still cheap. I mean, sure. Nobody's going to care if they pay six cents right now. I get that. But like when we're talking about high frequency transactions on a major platform such as Hyperliquid or such as Robinhood, suddenly six cents a transaction adds up.
35:24Bijan Maleki:And that speed makes a big difference when you're talking about liquidations in volatile market situations and things like that. So I'm skeptical on them using the base chain in that scenario, especially when it's been proven that it's that much more effective, both from a performance standpoint and a cost standpoint to use a layer two and you still get the security and the, you know, the foundational security and decentralization and settlement of the base Ethereum layer. All of that still happens on the base Ethereum layer, but you get the performance and the cost efficiency of the layer two.
35:59Bijan Maleki:So, yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I see that.
36:04Kris Bullock:Fair enough. Thank you for the question. So, I mean, I'm going to take this question here because We've been you've been mentioning Robin Hood a little bit and this is fresh question come from Jordan on the water Would you rather be holding Robin Hood stock or Coinbase?
36:25Bijan Maleki:Gut well just Gut answer I would say Robin Hood now I'm gonna look at the chart and we'll see what that looks like I'll pull them both up, but the reason I say Robin Hood is because Because Coinbase tends to move more as crypto moves and Robinhood is more branched out. They're more of a TradFi thing than a crypto thing. And I think that they're going to benefit from having that broader TradFi audience and still having access to both stocks and crypto. But let's look at the charts and see. So let's look at we'll look at both and then we'll look at both independently and then we'll compare the two.
37:05Bijan Maleki:We'll overlay the two. So we'll say Coinbase. We'll say Coinbase here. And largely, like I said, Coinbase does as crypto does. And so Coinbase has been in a pretty, it looks a lot like the Bitcoin chart to me. You know, it peaked on October 6th, just like Bitcoin did. It had a big rally. It's come back down. And it looks just like Bitcoin. It's almost neck and neck with Bitcoin. And let's look at, what is Robin? Oh, it's Hood. Oops. If I can type here. If we look at Robinhood, yeah, Robinhood just looks much stronger. It's just in a much stronger overall uptrend. Yes, it also peaked around October, but it's already reclaimed its major 20-week moving averages.
37:57Bijan Maleki:And it's in a much, much stronger uptrend. It's already setting much, much higher highs. It's like well and truly in a solid uptrend. And it's been in a much solid, more solid uptrend overall. And I think what they're doing with, you know, starting that layer two and allowing people to trade tokenized assets on chain and crypto on chain within the Robinhood ecosystem, I think is a really, really smart move for them. I like the fact that they built a layer two on Ethereum, too, I think, as opposed to doing it somewhere else, I think was a really smart move for them, too. So overall, I just think that like Robinhood has a larger total addressable market and a just kind of kind of going for it.
38:39Bijan Maleki:And now if we let's look at the two compared to each other. So we'll do coin over hood. And. OK, so this is Coinbase against Robinhood, and you can see Coinbase is just in a straight down only, basically. So this kind of tells you all you need to know. Robinhood is far and away the better performer here. the better investment. So that's pretty telling right there too.
39:06Kris Bullock:All right. There you have it. I'm going to take this next question just because we're on the would you rather portion, I guess. You have 5 ,000 pounds, not dollars, 5 ,000 quid to invest today. Aerodrome or hype?
39:27Bijan Maleki:Well, let me just look at the charts and I'll tell you what is the better looking chart. And I'll do it through a couple different lenses. Let's look at Aerodrome first. So, I mean, Aerodrome looks good. Like it's forming a bottoming pattern. I like what I'm seeing here in the sense that we've got a solid bottoming pattern. Oops.
39:51Bijan Maleki:It held this level. It held its support level that it established way back here, which I think was a good sign. It came back, it broke out, you know, we got this breakout, came back, tested this level of support again, and then broke out with a higher high and so far a higher low that's holding on this moving average. So on a weekly standpoint, this is slowly turning back into an uptrend. Like we're back above the big 20 week moving average. We flipped it to an uptrend. It's now pointed back to the upside. So this is something that's bankable. This is something that you could trade on. And this is like, this is breakout, retest, confirmation, higher high, higher low, holding support.
40:30Bijan Maleki:Like that's as good of a technical sort of setup as you can get there. So that's objectively good. Let's look at Hyperliquid. We know Hyperliquid is obviously in a different ballpark, a whole different conversation because it's been in a screaming uptrend. I mean, all the way to the beginning of the year, basically. It never...
41:04Bijan Maleki:20 week moving average. So it's, yeah, it kind of got way over overextended up in this range here. And it's this overextension has caused it to just chop sideways and sort of consolidate. And I think we're just in this major consolidation period off the back of this breakout. and it's going to take a while and I'm not going to be surprised to see this moving average here, this 20-week moving average, the red line, kind of meet up with the price action and then we'll see a resumption of the uptrend. So that's really what I'm looking for here. And that's kind of, we were talking right before the show started that I was hoping that Hyperliquid got down to the$50-ish range because I think that would be solid.
41:46Bijan Maleki:You can see that that$50 range coincides almost perfectly with this 20-week moving average. In fact, let me look at the number here. Right now, that number is right at$52.53. So that would be more or less spot on. So for it to come back down and touch would constitute like a proper mean reversion in this larger uptrend. And we know anytime we can get a touch on a big moving average, like the 20-day or even the 20 weeks even better that that's always not always but more often than not that's a good sort of bouncing level and so that's kind of what I'm looking for here now do we get it of course nobody knows we we could bounce from right here um but I like I kind of like what I'm seeing here so two very different setups one is a you know a breakout retest you know higher high higher low retest again, which is constructive.
42:42Bijan Maleki:This is still in a bit of a corrective phase. And like I said, there's a decent chance that, you know, we could get a touch back down to this 20-week moving average. So it's not quite an apples to apples comparison. We're looking at two different things. Like this is more of a wait and see, kind of hold your breath and hope that it gets back down. Whereas the aerodrome is more like this is a nice bounce off this moving average already and so let's look at this kind of on a daily time frame. And so what I'd be looking for here is, you know, to like flip this daily trend and get back above this 20-day moving average here.
43:25Bijan Maleki:Like if it can do that and better yet, if it can get above this dash line here, which is right around like the 56 cents level and show that it can put in an even higher high still, that's sort of, that's the continuation I'd be looking for. So neither of them I think is right at a buy trigger. This one, it needs to get a little bit higher. And I think Hyperliquid, it needs to get a little bit lower. And then they'd be sort of in ideal technical setup for, for, you know, a buy.
43:58Kris Bullock:So if they're both in those technical setups, which one would you lean towards i love hype and i've called hype the coin of this year but part of me for this particular scenario likes aerodrome because of its market cap its tie into coinbase i could see that real room to grow whereas like i think hype's obviously still gonna grow i think they're gonna I put a crazy price target on them. But I don't know if that room to grow has as much room as Aerodrome, in my opinion, at this age right now.
44:38Bijan Maleki:Sure, sure. That's a totally fair take. I mean, yeah, it's still down from its all-time high. Like, it's still down from its launch price. But certainly, you can't argue with this uptrend. I mean, it's in a weekly uptrend. And that's kind of all you need to know. I think it looks good. And so, yeah, this objectively is a good looking uptrending chart on a weekly timeframe. So, yeah, I mean, kind of simple as that, really. I can't tell you where you should buy or sell, but like, is this something that would qualify as something that, you know, I would look at? Yeah, sure. Like anything that's in a weekly uptrend right now, because very little is, is something that is worth considering.
45:22Bijan Maleki:And so it is definitely that. Obviously, there's something a little fishy with this volume candle, volume spike here. But and I don't really know anything about this project, so I can't speak to it in terms of fundamentals. But the fact that it's maintaining an uptrend on the year, while most things are not, you know, tells me that the market, for whatever reason, deems that it's worthy. And so that kind of is in crypto. So all you need to know is a lot of times people invest in stuff based off of a fundamental thesis and the market hates it and they just watch it keep going down. And so a lot of times it doesn't always matter what the fundamental thesis is.
46:01Bijan Maleki:If the market likes it, the market's going to keep buying it. And as long as you sort of just watch the technicals and trade the trends, you're going to benefit from it. And so that's what's happening here right now. And just keep watching the weekly trend and trading the weekly trend. And as soon as it loses it, then get out of it. But otherwise, the trend is your friend.
46:23Kris Bullock:The trend is your friend. Thank you for the... Well, Lance, ask him yourself, because I think he's in this chat right here.
46:38Kris Bullock:Colin, they want to know if you are the Colin from Sheffield. So please respond in the chat kindly. okay next question comes from dinko can you take a look at sofi please yes
46:59he just asked him in the chat i love this this is the great uh the benefits of a live show guys
47:05Kris Bullock:live show with a live chat
47:13um
47:15Kris Bullock:And just speaking, just to tie the knot on Derive, Jamie Coots recently did an interview with the Derive co-founder. Check that out on the Real Vision platform. And he also did a deep dive report as well on Derive. So if you want more in-depth Derive stuff, check out Jamie's recent interview and work. All right. SoFi.
47:41Bijan Maleki:I mean so if I looks looks it's actually looking pretty good right now like looking at it through this framework It's triggered a buy it triggered a buy actually back here around the week of June 8th or so and it's been slowly You know ramping back up. It's it's holding the the new mega trend in green It's kind of is sort of ticking all the boxes as I like to say here like this is this is positive This would be a kind of a buy signal for me looking at this one here also the fact that it is right around that same time lost its red dots and is sort of holding it's it's more of a neutral state i will say like this this track line here is yellow which means it's it's neutral it's not showing a ton of like upside momentum but it's holding its ground i would say it's holding its ground and starting to the the downward momentum has gone away and it's sort of just holding steady with a with a bit of a slant to the upside so it looks good here it looks it looks good enough here.
48:42And then we're seeing here over on this one, if we look, it has reclaimed the 20
48:47Bijan Maleki:week moving average, which is this red line here. So it's reclaimed that. And it's in the process of shifting this to a weekly uptrend. It's doing what it needs to do and that it's trading above these two moving averages and holding them as support on the upside. And I like the fact that the RSI is also putting in higher highs too. So again, showing all of the requisite signs of strength, it's just not enough. Now, when you say you bought, does that mean you like went all in or did you just sort of, you know, buy a little chunk? If you went all in, what I would say to that is you might be in for a rocky ride.
49:30Bijan Maleki:You might be in for a bit of a roller coaster over the next few months. He always goes all in, he said. I love it. No in between.
49:41Kris Bullock:It's one or the other. I like it.
49:43Bijan Maleki:Then just expect volatility is what I'll say to that. I think you'll probably come out the other side okay. It's not like you bought something that's number 800 on the market cap or I'm just picking a number, whatever. But you bought known sort of blue chippy, reputable crypto assets, you'll probably be fine. You know, are you going to have to wait a little bit? Probably. But just what I would say is if you did, in fact, go all in, don't, you know, don't panic sell the lows if it drops down lower. We've been talking about for weeks or even months now that there's a real viable chance that Bitcoin could get down into this lower 50s range, potentially even lower than that.
50:27Bijan Maleki:So know that that is something that is a plausible scenario that's looming in the coming days and weeks and months. Maybe we don't have that happen. Maybe the bottom is in and you did great. But yeah, just expect volatility is what I can say.
50:45Kris Bullock:There you have it. Lovely. Question about your indicators, Chris. Loopy wants to know, how do we find Chris's indicators? Can't find them under blastoplast.
50:58Bijan Maleki:Here, I'll tell you what, what I'll do. Let me just grab one of them here. I'll just pick this one. Oh, not that one. Maybe this one.
51:11Kris Bullock:And while we're actually, while we're on the indicator question, because I know you have, you have quite a few in your suite of tools that you use and you've even created a few as well. You can check that out on our AI show if you want to know the ones that Chris created and how he did it. But if you were like, so if somebody like, I guess, I don't want to say new, but like, yeah, let's say new was coming in to get started, right? I think maybe too many indicators can probably be overwhelming for them. Like, what would you say? Maybe like a couple of indicators that they can start out with to keep things simplified for them that also gives them good signals?
51:50Bijan Maleki:Ones that I've made or just in general?
51:52Kris Bullock:Especially in general, like in your tool, like that you would just, you know, maybe recommend to someone new or, you know. Yes, that's an excellent question. I'll get to that in a second. So what I just...
52:11Bijan Maleki:You'll see my name over here. It'll look like this. Just click my name from here. and this should get you to all of the stuff that I've published, like under scripts here. Yeah, so that'll... Mind you, some of these are stupid and I don't use them anymore. Like, I've vibe-coded, well, you can see quite a few. Some of them are more useful than others. Some of them I vibe-code and I'll throw them on and then a week later I'm like, yeah, this was kind of stupid but then other ones that they've really stuck and they've actually done really well for me so this is where they're they're all at I don't know how to link to this page though unfortunately but like I said you can get to it by clicking my name when you click the link that I just shared in the discord I'll see if I can find a way to click to get to this page I should know but I don't so if he finds a way I'll share it in the comments of the of
53:08Kris Bullock:the of the video on platforms you guys can check it out so but yeah no getting back to your so getting back to your question honestly more than anything the thing
53:18Bijan Maleki:that i i've benefited the most from and this this might even sound kind of dumb but um it's just moving averages like literally uh you can you can do everything you need to do with just moving averages like if i go on like if i'm on dex tools for example and i you know i'm on this stupid trading view interface on DexTools, and I'm just going to figure out what's going on here. The first thing I'll do is I'll just put two moving averages on here, a 10 bar and a 20 bar. And that kind of tells me, because with a 10 bar and a 20 bar, it works on any timeframe. You can look at it on the weekly, you can look at it on the daily, you can look at it on the hourly, and it tells you when trends are gaining steam, losing steam, rolling over, reversing, all of that stuff.
54:08Bijan Maleki:And if you're trying to trade any kind of a trend, all you need to do is just throw up and you can do the 10 and the 20. You can do the 20 and the 50. You can do the 50 and the two. It doesn't really matter. Just pick two that work for you. I kind of prefer the 10 and the 20, but just find some and go with it. And then just look at how they interact with each other. Like for example here, this, when, when the 10 crosses over the 20, this tells you that the trend has reversed. This sort of sideways chop has confirmed a breakout, and now we are in an uptrend, and you can see when they sort of get further and further.
54:42Bijan Maleki:And so when we get a mean reversion back to the 20, that oftentimes, usually more so on the daily than on the weekly, but that tells you that we're getting a retest, a refueling, if you will, and it's announced most of the time on the wins at the 10 bar moving average and not the 20 like it did right here you can see um or like right here but but yeah so and then like if we look at on the daily um again of course it's going to be more noisy because it's going to tell you when daily trends uh reverse and and change but still you can see how it's helpful if price is above both of these moving averages and both of these moving averages are pointed to the upside, that's good.
55:26Bijan Maleki:And if you buy on the breakout, whenever it breaks out and ride that up, that's bad. And then the minute it closes, or rather, I should say, the first sort of daily candle close you get below the 20 is likely going to be a trend reversal more often than not. Don't do it intraday. Wait for a full daily close. So like if you zoom in, you can see it was below it here, but it didn't actually close below it on this candle. And then it bumped up again. It wasn't really until this final one here that it actually closed below it. And then sure enough, that marked the reversal of the trend. And so if you sort of buy on breakouts of the 20 and sell on breakdowns below it, you'll win more often than not.
56:09Bijan Maleki:It's very simple. It doesn't have to be more complicated than that. And literally, I mean, of course you see I use all kinds of stuff. But if I just was whatever on a desert island and I had one indicator to pick I know that sounds stupid. I would pick two moving averages and I feel like I could I could do what I needed to do with that Anything else beyond that is just adding a little bit more nuance is just making it so that you can extract Maybe that that much more out of the highs and buy that much closer Kind of what I'm looking for
56:43Kris Bullock:Okay, last question to wrap up today's show comes from Dennis on the website. Would you consider the Clarity Act sell the news event overall? Do you have scenarios if it passes and if it doesn't?
57:01Bijan Maleki:Well, I mean, in terms of sell the news, it's hard for me to say because there's a lot of traders that are going to trade around that. I think how I look at the Clarity Act more is... Um, we, we ultimately need the clarity act to pass for like long term, long term sustainability of the crypto space. I think if it doesn't pass, um, it's going to be problematic more from just a larger overall regulatory standpoint, not from like a intraday technical standpoint. So I don't know that I want to trade around it like that, but, um, it's something that we need, but at the same time, uh, you know, right now we don't have it right now today and everything is working, well, relatively fine, whatever that means.
57:48Bijan Maleki:Everything is working at the moment. So it's not like crypto is going to break if it doesn't pass. Eventually, we'll get some regulatory framework in place at some point. Certainly, if it doesn't pass this time around, it leaves it vulnerable to future whatever administrations coming in and drastically changing the rules from what they are or what they're proposed to be right now. But like if it doesn't pass today, it's not going to mechanically break crypto today. But if it does pass today, it will pave the way for clarity and stability going forward is kind of how I look at it. You know, I don't know if that answers your question.
58:30Kris Bullock:Yeah, my gut tells me it, at least initially, it is going to be a sell the news event because that's typically how the, I mean, look at what we just saw with Bitcoin when you were charting at based off of the ETF news and the Trump bump that we got when he was elected. I think this will kind of go the same way where if it does get passed, you're probably going to see like money flowing in and like, you know, people like thinking this is up only as these things typically tend to do. And then you'll probably see a reversion from that initial euphoria. And then a few, and when that dust settles down, that'll probably be like a real good time to actually buy.
59:09Kris Bullock:if it passes anyway that's my thoughts on it um but i'm not like you said i'm not trading around it it's just crazy there you have it all right guys that'll do it for this week's edition of trading the markets thank you everyone for your questions playback will be live on the platform or on the platform so check that out um no show no ai show on monday but um we'll see you guys again next week have a great weekend everyone enjoy the dog days of summer and uh you know carry the conversations here in the discord and on platform through uh through notes and trade ideas we want to see uh you guys discussing great things so until then everyone don't fuck this up have a great week
From the publisher
Odds of the Clarity Act's passage through the U.S. Senate briefly shot up above 50% on Polymarket before paring back, both underscoring the fragile nature of the bill’s political discourse and giving Bitcoin a much-needed boost to $67,000 — but is the price sustainable? Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki get to the bottom of it on the latest Trading the Markets.
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