Crypto Price Action After Trump Tariff Ruling

20:51Mando:But one thing, this is where we're different from Pengu is I think there's more opportunity to play fun tokenomics games right now. So part of our launch is a thing called Burb Game. The way that Burb Games work is each claim. So the NFT represents like 25 % of our total tokens claimed over 24 months. But each claim period, there's unclaimed tokens, right? Those don't accrue. They don't stack. If you didn't claim them or nest or get them, you don't get them. And so what we do is we take those tokens and we redistribute them to people as a way to juice a game that we're playing and the game changes but it's some sort of game theory game and it's a me positive game theory game where the ev positive in ev positiveness comes from the unclaimed tokens right and so to me what this is is it's like kind of a staking mechanism but it's also kind of a rewards mechanism for people who are more engaged um with and who want to do it and it's also like a here's a reason to buy and own the token it's like it's you don't need the NFT or anything to play Burb Game, you can go market by tokens to play the game with, right?

22:00Mando:And we've actually seen about, so we had like 7 million tokens play Burb Game 1. About half of those were from people who claimed and like immediately played. The other half was from people who bought on the market for the purposes of playing Burb Game. And so like, I think Burb Game is fun. Even if you play it with a dollar, like check it out because like the goal of Burb Game is just like, I think people are really bored right now. Let's once a month give them a fun new different thing to think about or play that's enjoyable and like that to me is like what a lot of the best parts of defy were was just like i loved reading like defy white papers because i was like oh what game are we playing today like what is you know or is this a sheep's game variant is this the wizards that you know i remember reading wizards and dragons like um white paper being like oh like doing the math in my head like this is these are fun things um and And so if you entertain the people, grow your business, have a pseudo-staking mechanism that works, I think that's very interesting.

22:58Mando:I don't think we've seen a lot of successful brand tokens lean into some of the tokenomics-y DeFi stuff. And I know that a lot of tokenomics-y DeFi stuff historically doesn't work, but the benefit of this is it's actually pretty similar to what a lot of people did. It's just gamifying, right?

23:17Spencer Gordon-Sand:So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. I think that's smart. I think you just need to keep people engaged. I agree in the world that your subsector of the coin that you're in, which is kind of more the brand meets business coin, let's say. I think it's really just about staying relevant and you're right, relative strength is very important I actually think those coins have got a much stronger base than a lot of the other things in crypto at the moment I think the whole L1, L2 just chain narrative is really getting tested and it's really apps, businesses DeFi which are the strongest ones and I think they're going to have a very very strong bounce when the market balances because people will see them as businesses and be like right i can get behind this at whatever multiple plus let's say brand value um i think it's a very interesting point i mean this week we've had a bit of a strange week in crypto because it felt like it it felt there was a eath denver conference and a lot of the commentary out of that was that it was it's been very quiet a lot of VCs seemingly are losing people or having bad performance you did have Dragonfly raise a huge fund this week but it's actually the same size as their last fund so it's kind of just that they raised in spite of that I would say but then Asia there was obviously consensus I don't know if you went for that but you've obviously seen spending a lot of time there.

25:10Spencer Gordon-Sand:But it does just feel there's also this divide even across the globe here around crypto. The fact that you focus so much on Asia kind of says a lot. It feels like the US, it's just lacking some drive at the moment.

25:30Mando:I wouldn't think that the US lacking drive is the driver of issues. I think that in the US, we've seen a really big swing back towards Silicon Valley. If I have to think about what's happening at the level of family offices, the level of the capital allocators, a lot of the money that came into crypto from the US, basically all of it was money from people with tech exits. a lot from Silicon Valley, a lot from New York. But that is a lot of the money that funneled... Even the NFT run originally. I remember meeting a lot of the people that I thought were cool. Back when there were cool people coming into NFTs, a lot of them were from tech companies.

26:13Mando:It was a lot of FANG people. It was a lot of people... There was a lot of wealth created in America in the right demographic that does this stuff. Those people... I think we even see this for KOLs and crypto. like there's been a recurring theme recently when I like bump into KOL friends where they're like we talk about crypto but then they're like all right but like how's your cloud bot doing like what's this the kind of thing it's like AI and like crypto for a very long time it was all about its frontierness right and it's all about its counterculture it was all about this and it's become more mature we have all these announcements you know you have BlackRock doing all sorts of stuff there's all these things going on it doesn't really feel like this frontier cowboy thing anymore.

26:58Mando:It needs to grapple with what is it in its maturity if not that frontierness of tech. Because it's not. It's not the frontier of tech anymore. It doesn't mean it's done. It's not valuable, useful, interesting. But I don't think that crypto is the frontier of tech in the way that it once was. It can be the frontier of culture. That's true.

27:18Spencer Gordon-Sand:I mean, it feels as though AI obviously has taken the shine off. It's weird that this year, because of the AI agents, you kind of feel like this could be a good opportunity for crypto to become suddenly very relevant again.

27:34Mando:Payment rails for the agents seems like a no-brainer for what crypto should be part of, right? But that thesis is very hard to find exposure to, right? You could sit here and say, hey, I want... But I will say that I have more people that I know trying to figure out how to get exposure to that thesis through anthropic secondaries than I do people trying to get exposure to that thesis through they'll use the payment rails. This is the stablecoin issue. One of the big issues in crypto is that one of the best ways in which crypto is growing and being adopted is stablecoins, but this is not a bid against our altcoins.

28:13Mando:It's not a thing that transfers value. None of the stablecoin issuers really have a fungible token. right and the closest to like fungible token exposure for stable coins you can really get is like Ondo I would say like that's a company that is not quite a stable coin but like they may have but like they are a lot of the yield of stable coins is for Ondo right and so you know but like again that's not a bit against Bitcoin it's not a bit against Ethereum it's not a bit against our altcoins like you know it is a very cool thing that our technology is being adopted but like it's not obvious that matters to us.

28:52Mando:And so I think you see it too. I've seen a lot more money from the funds that do have money, such as... A lot of it's going towards

29:05Mando:stablecoin issuers. And that money never enters... That doesn't go to exchanges. That money never enters the world that we're talking about, where flows matter for our own wealth. And so it's like, where is the marginal bid coming from? where's the new liquidity coming from like there are more tokens as a function of time like there will only ever be more tokens than there are today right and so like will liquidity keep pace will like concentrate or will just kind of stay spread out right like another thing that I think needs to happen is some of these dinosaurs need to die there are there's just way too much volume and liquidity on coins that like don't like in the Lord's year 2026 like why are we trading these coins right like Like, I think my unpopular opinion is that crypto would be a much better place if Dogecoin, like, more or less died.

29:58Mando:Like, it did its thing. Interesting. It's not even a relevant. It's a good take. It's not even a relevant meme. Like, I've talked to a lot of crypto traders who I consider very good crypto traders. And like, what is the Doge meme? Like, can you tell me what the Doge meme is? And like, elder millennials, right, such as ourselves. Like, to me, it's like, much wow, very this. But the number of people in crypto who don't even know that is so high. That's the meme, right? And it's not a relevant meme. There's a government department named after it. Elon can't even pump it anymore. What is the purpose of this token in our ecosystem?

30:36Mando:If that liquidity transferred to alts, we'd have alt season, right? But people are so stuck on this. There's a lot of coins like that. Do you think that's a problem?

30:45Spencer Gordon-Sand:I mean, do you think that... You're saying this, but I just don't think they're going to die. No, they're not. These things, they just stay on forever. And I feel like you're right in that that is a problem in that we have these zombie coins that just dominate still the top 100 often. They can get... It can be very demoralized. ...eroded.

31:09Mando:It's like those kind of coins, it's really hard for them to truly pump. and they just erode their own trading base. And for the people who are really building like real companies, it can be really tough. That being said, though, there is something to be said where a lot of discussions that I've had with people recently who I think are really smart. And I think that one of the ways you erode them is by replacing them, right? It's like, you could look at Dogecoin and be like, no one has replaced Dogecoin. Like in the long run, I'm not saying for a short period, but in a 10 to 20 year time horizon, like it was early, shouldn't really matter for anything other than Bitcoin.

31:45Mando:I think that it was early is not going to be the thing that sustains Dogecoin. Dogecoin, to me, will get flipped. And as soon as it gets flipped, it is a forcing function down very substantially on its relevance. And when does that happen? It happens when someone has a better version of that. I think that... Yeah, Doge is still...

32:05Spencer Gordon-Sand:I'm looking at it now. Doge is top nine. It is crazy when you bring up the top coins. Yeah. like doge is nine bitcoin cash is 10 cardano is 11 um leo is 12 there's there are coins here that you just go i don't know what's really going on there uh and yeah they do dominate and and obviously that's like the top 20 so they're weird to be there once you get outside the top 20 it gets pretty wild pretty quickly in the number of relevant coins yeah yeah well it's like

32:41Mando:Like, this is also to say that, like, in our view of crypto, where we're really, like, dialed in and on Twitter and all these kind of things, like, we forget that, like, the vast majority of people trading crypto trade these coins. They trade XRP. They trade Cardano. They trade Chainlink, apparently, right? Like, they trade these coins that, like, we don't think about at all. And I think a big mental shift of mine that I think is part of the maturity process of being a token founder is it's really easy to be very resentful of these coins. They're not doing anything. But really, they are. They're serving a purpose.

33:21Mando:And how do you become the next Zcash? How do you become the next XRP? Is actually a very relevant question. And the answer is it's not by just building an underlying company. Underlying company, I think is important and I believe is a very valuable thing. But you just can look at the market and say that this is not necessarily the main driver of these things. It's like, how do you have a really clean and simple institutional narrative? One of the big interesting ones is like, how much does the amount of apps on your chain actually matter? I think if you'd asked me a year or two ago, I would have said it's the only thing that matters.

33:59Mando:and today I weirdly am just like not convinced that it matters at all. Right? Like if you have a chain, like, you know, Solana has a lot of apps. Like if it mattered, like if that was the main thing that mattered, like Solana would be higher than XRP. Right? But it's not. Like if, because XRP's whole thing is like, it's supposed to be the settlement rails for like -

34:20Spencer Gordon-Sand:The meme matters. The meme matters in my opinion, which is what you're saying as well. Like you need believers, you need to go back to the original base of what a currency is. I wrestle with this a lot at the moment. I know the viewers know this, like how the L1 thesis kind of forms, because I agree with you. I don't think number of transactions really is the thing. I think people need to actually have that belief that it's a currency and they want to hold it. And you go back to the original aims of cryptocurrency, which was, right, we're going to replace fiat, not just be the rails for stable points, like you said.

34:55Spencer Gordon-Sand:And there's actually only a certain number of points where you can kind of pitch them. It's like they've become socially relevant enough to actually be currencies. You could only name very, very few in my opinion. And I think weirdly the brand coin has actually got some of the best shots of doing that versus all other types of coins. No one ever holds a DeFi coin because they think it's like a form of money. They think it's because it's like a business. But I think they're like the brand meets business coins I actually think could be a very good shot of that.

35:29Mando:No, but this is maybe where we fundamentally disagree because I don't think that the goal of crypto coins is to be money because I think that their nature is very volatile and a hallmark of good money is that it is not very volatile, right? It is a very, very bad function if the value of your currency has high volatility. And I don't think there's a world where any token is designed... And all of central banking is designed to decrease volatility of a nation's currency. I think that that's a pretty reasonable take on what the point of a central bank is. Why are you doing open market operations?

36:07Mando:Why are you doing all these kind of things? You want to stabilize your currency.

36:13Mando:I don't think you think of the point of a cryptocurrency being its stability. I think you go to crypto.

36:20Spencer Gordon-Sand:I agree that they're not going to be stable. but I think that the only ones that will survive will be the ones that have that have that up

36:28Mando:so I agree that like to a certain degree but like the L1 thesis I think it's all got to be like so much dumber is like the thing I think this is where like even like Solana relatively struggles it's like if you're like oh XRP it's going to be the settlement rails for TradFi like it's the future of finance like and you don't think any harder about why any of that would happen like it makes sense right but you're like what's Solana Solana is like the casino, I guess. I don't know. It's where culture is captured. It's the chain that has actual apps and users. Weirdly enough, it's the future of finance seems to be...

37:06Mando:I guess we can look at the market and say that somehow is a better narrative than it is the actual chain with apps on it. Yeah. And when I think about the L1 thesis, it is really just so easy. there's been a gross overfunding of L1s that we don't need in crypto. And it's been happening for a very, very specific reason, which is that if you look at the top two coins, the top 10 coins, there's a bunch of L1s. And so if you're saying, hey, I want to back a project that I think can be as big as one of these other companies, would you rather the comp be... Okay, I'll give you an example, right? Like cards, which is the native ticker cards from collector's crypt, is probably one of the best RWA, it's one of the only RWA marketplace tokens that's actually been launched.

38:04Mando:I think they're like 50 million right now, FTV, right? And so, and, you know, Ethereum is what, like 235 billion? So would you rather back a company that could be a$235 billion company or back a company that would be a$50 million company, right? Now, this is not to say that you shouldn't go make RWA marketplaces. I think that those companies have a lot of opportunity and they can go a lot higher. There's all sorts of reasons that they make real revenue. There's a lot of reasons that it's a good company. But we have grossly overfunded L1s on that very simple principle that the comp for the L1 is literally just bigger than everything else in the space.

38:41Mando:And so it is much, much easier as an institutional investor to underwrite, this could be the next Solana, this could be the next this, because the prize for being that is so big. But like, is it? Like, we back, so I mean, like, do you remember Eigenlayer? Do you remember Eigenlayer?

39:00Spencer Gordon-Sand:Yeah, I think the business side of stuff has been slightly gutted. I'm kind of hoping that with the, if the clarity out comes back, we're going to see even, we're going to see more attempts into things like tokenization, which will be more interesting business models potentially on the back of it, or at least more clarity that you'll see more businesses really, really engage in crypto than they have right now. That was one story that happened this week that we should maybe just touch upon, which is that it does feel as though that felt dead potentially two weeks ago. And then in the last few days, there was a big conference at Mar-a-Lago.

39:35Spencer Gordon-Sand:And it seems as though there's been a lot of pressure on Coinbase and the banking lobbies to kind of come to some form of language that will be accepted for stable coins. And then the rest of it allows on-chain trading of a number of different things plus tokenization to reduce flourish. So that could be, I think, people are looking at that as the first sign that we could have a bit of a bounce on the back of it. Do you have any strong view on if that will be a game changer?

40:05Mando:I think it is a nothing. I'll be honest with you. I don't think the Clarity Act matters. I think that it's not clear to me what the marginal bid from the clarity act really brings us. Sorry. I think it matters a lot for the industry. It matters a lot for stable coin adoption. I don't think it creates a bid against our own. And so like, we're like, I do think it's very distracting. I think that a lot of the resources that are should otherwise like, like it's hard to not right now have a feeling of a lot of the greatest capitalist capital resources, mines, everything in our industry are down in Washington, trying to get something passed that's very beneficial towards this tension between the traditional banking and crypto.

40:56Mando:And one of the best things that could come out of it is if we have much better clarity around stablecoins and then stablecoins that are generating yield through DeFi or otherwise is a much better vehicle than a bank account that earns no interest when the bank just keeps all the interest, right? All the float that they're getting. And this is sort of the tension that's happening. But does resolving that tension create a bid out of nowhere? I don't think so. It does if it gives more access in things like retirement accounts, more access to trading. That's kind of already happened. That's what the ETFs are.

41:41Mando:The DATs are really distracting to that, but the ETFs, that is the whole thing. Speaking of Doge and issues, the Doge ETF struggling is a huge issue. This is a much bigger issue to me than the Clarity Act. To me personally, me, Spencer. To the industry, yeah, Clarity Act is important and all this kind of stuff. It's hard to not feel like everyone is so distracted by the Clarity Act that they've forgotten that the main thing they need to do is bring the marginal liquidity into crypto, right? Like bring the marginal consumer into crypto, bring in the next person. Like that is how you grow the industry.

42:20Mando:Exchanges have been doing a remarkably bad job of it this cycle. You know that they're not onboarding new users, right? The hyperliquid traders are just the old no KYC crowd that used to trade on Binance. They just moved over right after Binance got, you know, its whole like little thing happened. It looked for a minute like Aster was going to be like, you know, something that maybe could onboard new users. I don't think that's, people really talk about that

42:49Spencer Gordon-Sand:in the same way. There were six users apparently in the last week. I was bullish on Aster. I really felt like CZ was going to go for it. But then I think obviously 1010 just kind of seems like you did.

42:59Mando:It seems like you went for it. It's just not the way you thought you would.

43:05Spencer Gordon-Sand:Yeah, it feels like the CZ reputation has not helped. No one wants to trade in a decentralized black box finance casino.

43:16Mando:I mean, for a few months, people really wanted to trade in a decentralized black box.

43:21Spencer Gordon-Sand:For sure. I felt like CZ's coming back and was going to make it. It does feel like Hyperlicker is just going to win that war. Some people are still bullish on lighter, it feels like.

43:32Mando:But like, yeah, I also like, like, like, like CZ historically has not been like CZ is very good at taking people to his exchange and running a really good KYC exchange. That was what he was the best ever to do. Right. Like, like, even I would argue, like, even in the prior cycle, like, probably FTX onboarded a lot more marginal users than Binance did. Right. Like, like. They were having all these celebrity commercials. they were having all these and like you look back at that period of time you're like oh man like that was probably pretty bad but like because like they onboard people and then rugged them but at least they were onboarding them right like like if you look if you take a very pessimistic view of crypto right it's much better if the bad actors get me depressed at the moment here like

44:18Spencer Gordon-Sand:versus just this is this is the people that are already here so far what yeah i know this this

44:23Mando:has been definitely a bear market chat i feel like no no but this is all this is all very exciting because, and I'll tell you why, is because if you have such a pessimistic view of the industry, it means that there's so much opportunity to do cool, new, and interesting things and to be that change. Like, I'm going to say, the reason I'm so pessimistic is because I think that like, as so many founders, so many founders sit in this industry and are price takers. They are like, I just move with the market. I'm going to hope that someone's going to step in and see. Historically, someone steps in and saves you, right?

44:54Like, to his credit,

44:57Mando:during the Asian conferences this cycle, like Chinese altcoins were pumping. Like there was something fun and interesting. He created a game that was fun and interesting, got people going, right? Like to Elon's credit, like PumpFun was a game that was interesting that got people going, right? You had entire sub companies exist just for like trading PumpFun coins. Like that brought in new users for sure, right? As a founder in this space, I just very firmly believe that like you have to go get the liquidity you want to see in the world. Like it doesn't just exist. You can't wait for someone else to come bring it to you, right?

45:32Mando:It's great if they do. And it happens sometimes. But like, this is why I'm so big on consumer is because to me, the only people bringing new people in is consumer, right? It's like, it's our figurines that we make in stores. It's your guys' drinks on shelves. It's like, it's these things that are like, like that has onboarded more of the marginal consumer to crypto this cycle than anything other than meme coins. Like that's the only thing. And like, I'm not waiting. That's why we went to Korea. Like, I'm not waiting for Korean exchanges to come bring me Korean community. All right, number one trading for retail trading is Korea.

46:06Mando:Like, let's go to Korea. Like, let's go, you know, one of the most famous, like, like strategies that there was, there was a, I forget which coin it was. There was a coin that went to like the countryside, like rural Korea, door to door, handing out pamphlets with an investment thesis. And like, that is the most bullish thing I've ever heard. That is like boots on the ground, onboarding.

46:27Spencer Gordon-Sand:We need a bit of that. We need a bit of that. Yeah. We need some more of that. We need some more ideas. Just a quick, you talked about it earlier, but AI meets crypto. Are you doing anything with your business side of stuff? I know you're listening on the content side, but have you dabbled with any of this? Do you think it's going to be huge?

46:44Mando:Oh, yeah. Yeah. So, okay. So you just glossed over it, but I'm not going to gloss over it. The content side is huge. My play with AI is, I think that being at the cutting edge of AI content is obscenely valuable. And it's like AI is this tool that we've... So like, okay, how I view AI is this. AI is a tool. And obviously, one of the best ways to benefit from the best new tool is to make the best new tool. But there's no fucking way that my company is going to make the best AI product, right? That is going to be open AI. It's going to be Anthropik. It's going to be Cursor. It's going to be one of these Silicon Valley groups.

47:23Mando:They have way too much money and way too far an advantage. I have a lot of friends who are in these companies. And their main thing is there's 10 people in the world that are really good at writing these kind of... Doing this kind of programming and really know this kind of stuff. And they're all just being poached cyclically from these five companies. And I want nothing to do with that. That is not where I, Spencer, am going to make my mark in AI. What I do want to do is say, okay, this is the best tool since the wheel. This is the best tool since we created fire. I am obsessed with, I want to be the fire wielder.

47:59Mando:I want to be making the car from the wheel. I want to take this tool and use it to its best degree. And I think that a lot of the best use cases for AI will eat themselves. What I mean by this is if you think of AI as a tool for like, I want to rate a trading bot, like the you in the equation, I don't know if you feel this, but I feel increasingly like, when do I matter in the chat with AI? right it's like is like i feel like in many versions of it it's like the terminal version of this is i'm not even in the chat right and so like i don't want to focus on learning skills that will obsolete themselves almost immediately right which is like oh i'm prompting this kind of thing or this it's like i want to focus on the thing that the only one thing you can't eat which is like creative thought and like and like narrative focus and like how do you create like content right and i know you're looking at being like oh maybe they'll eat it too but like like like and maybe they will but my my thesis is that like the thing where i engage with ai that feels the most like i am using the strongest tool ever and i am not going to be replaced imminently in the equation of using it is in content creation and therefore like because so there's another one of like okay like vibe coding games and products right like this is almost to the point where you can ship them, but not quite.

49:26Mando:You can ship VibeCode stuff with oversight and stuff, but wait one more year and the amount of cheaper it is or not needing a CTO to oversee it will I think go exponential. I think that you probably don't need software developers in your company in a year or two. Right now, you definitely need a software developer to oversee your AI, but I think that that is a role that will just get you. If that makes sense.

49:53Spencer Gordon-Sand:I agree. The content side of the stuff people have said, they're not very good at idea generation. They're very good at execution. So the creativity is not right there, even though they're much smarter. I think that does seem to be quite an interesting one. We have seen some this week where there was an attempt at Web4 where agents are essentially being let out into the world and they can only survive if they make money. there's been a couple of takes that that's really just the peak form of ai slop but i do think that the content side of the business the more imaginative sides of ai will continue to kind of

50:32Mando:well but here's the other one this is actually like a really i think a very clear corollary actually is like i think that a lot of people are focused on ai agents trading right but like Like they tend to be, they suck. Not only do they suck, but like we actually know how this ends. We know where this goes, right? Because they will suck less as a function of time, I'm sure. But where this goes is the same thing that happened with quant hedge funds, which is like you had like retail trading versus quant hedge funds. Quant hedge funds are way better than retail, right? Like absolutely. But if you look at the like non-HFT quant strategies, they trade almost never.

51:09Mando:Like, and so one of the things that was happening pre-COVID, which COVID like completely changed, was like the percentage of traders that were like algorithmic traders trading against each other, like went up as a function of time, right? And those trading strategies tend to trade less often than human directed trading strategies. And they really only trade as a function of trading against the human trading strategies. So you had this like very interesting like thought experiment of like, if this continues to trend in this direction and you get to like, from like 20 % algorithmic trading strategies, like 90, 100 % algorithmic trading strategies trading against each other, you kind of have a market where nobody trades, right?

51:47Mando:Because they just, they really buy us towards not trading. Now, COVID happened and suddenly this giant retail bid came back in and like it was no longer like this trend of like the percentage of all trades happening being weighted towards algorithmic trading, like decreased substantially, right? And so we don't really see a continuation of that trend. But like, if like, you can't have all agents be good at trading unless they're not trading. right like the way that all agents be good at trading is like everyone doesn't everyone just buys nobody sells basically is what that means right it's like kind of like the wag me like we're all getting like oh like d-list d-list right like you know um but like like like markets and trading like for winning trades there must be losing trades right and so like there can't be this thing where like if if if agents are too good they will then every trader will be an agent and then agents will stop being good.

52:43Mando:This must happen.

52:45Spencer Gordon-Sand:Zero sum. Someone's going to lose. We have gone pretty relentlessly there for an hour, but it's been a really good chat across token generation where I think we are in the market. Touched on AI, touched on content coins, how to create a valuable coin. I think these are important questions as you think about coins during this period because you're right. It's the time for accumulation. There's one question that came through which I'll just go to, which I quite liked, which was, how much time do you think we have to accumulate? You guys have a theory on when we will bottom. We were bearish on this, or we were realistic, I think, about the market right now.

53:26Spencer Gordon-Sand:Do you have a view of when this will turn?

53:31Mando:Yeah, so I think if you look, Chinese New Year is often a really good accumulation period because of everything we said, where a lot of retail is not in the market. There are some acute dislodgements that you should just bid. I would say if the Reddit post is right, and the four-year cycle, which it's been exactly right, the four-year cycle is intact, we should start to really see a bid again in October of this year. I would say we probably bottom somewhere in March. and then it's not a promise or anything like that this is just my feeling it's like we problem probably bottom somewhere in march it feels super dead for a while we rain like the thing that attrition is a lot of people is going to be how boring like that's the thing that nobody talks about is like we're just going to be really range bound volatility will go to basically zero and we're just going to like it just can't it's going to be really really boring and um then after that

54:35Spencer Gordon-Sand:So you've got to believe during these sort of periods. That's when you accumulate. I actually agree with that thesis. I mean, it's a popular thesis at the moment that Q3 is going to be the point that we return. But you might be right in that the bottom's already happened. Or at least we may get one more flush.

54:50Mando:Probably the bottom of price has already happened or is close to happening. I don't believe it's the bottom of sentiment yet. It's going to... One thing that you do have to do during these kind of bear markets is really be like, am I being emotional about it? or is it really happening? Which is like, somehow staying flat feels emotionally worse than going down.

55:16Spencer Gordon-Sand:I agree with you. The worst thing you can do during these periods is overtrade. I think you're catching the bottom. I think this is not... Does this feel like... This feels like it's too quiet. You need one more like, oh my God, it's so over. Then it bounces and then we just go.

55:33Mando:That's my view. I think there's like a little bit of expelling of our demons that needs to happen. And one of the demons that needs to just happen is MegaEath. Which is like, as we've talked about, L1s. We don't need MegaEath.

55:53Spencer Gordon-Sand:Well, we've got Tempo coming, which is the new L1 from the Paradigm guys. And don't worry about us having new L1s. We've got the layer zero L1 coming. There's still going to be these, Dan. That's going to be crypto through and through. Anyway.

56:13Mando:My last question, you mando. Do we need mega?

56:18Spencer Gordon-Sand:I like those guys. I'm not going to say. We don't need dip. 100 % we do not need more block space. We don't need faster. We don't need more block space. But that's where the money is. Like you said, there's still... When all these even semi-dead-er ones make up the top 30, then people see it as a best move. Okay. Well, yeah, look, Fenta, last time you came on the show, Bitcoin was at 100K. Your token had not come out. We've now had you. Your token is out. Bitcoin's at 67K. I hope the next time you come back, Bitcoin is high. The Moonburst token is going to the moon, and we're back in a bull market trend.

56:59Spencer Gordon-Sand:So maybe you'll come back in October. but hopefully you'll invite me back before that.

57:03Mando:Right.

57:04Spencer Gordon-Sand:Yeah. Well, hopefully before that. We'll hopefully. Awesome. Okay guys. Well, pleasure as always, Spencer, and we will be back again next week, guys. We'll see you again at the same time. All the best. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end, but listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try?

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