In short
Real Vision Podcast Episode Summary
Episode Details
- Title: Crypto Seesaws on Weak U.S. Jobs Data | Trading Cards Bonanza | REKT Vision
- Description: Mando, co-founder of Rekt and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, speaks with Spencer, CEO of Orange Cap Games, about current trends in cryptocurrencies, the labor market, collectibles, and more.
Key Themes and Discussions
- Current Market Sentiment
- Weak U.S. Jobs Data:
- Recent data indicates weakness in the U.S. labor market.
- First negative Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figure in months prompts discussions on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Bitcoin performed similarly to traditional markets, indicating institutional interest rather than acting solely as an inflation hedge.
- Bitcoin's Stability:
- Bitcoin has maintained a support range, recently hovering between $110K to $123K.
- The discussion highlighted that recent sell-offs in Bitcoin have been minimal compared to historical volatility.
- Investment Strategies
- Convergence of Bitcoin and Public Markets:
- Bitcoin is increasingly behaving similarly to the S&P 500, which may suggest a greater institutional adoption.
- Observations noted that Bitcoin's volatility appears to be lower in comparison to stock market movements.
- Upcoming Economic Indicators:
- Anticipation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and its impact on market sentiment.
- Discussions on how weak economic indicators might affect different asset classes, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Collectibles Market Trends
- Tokenized Trading Cards:
- A resurgence in the popularity of collectible trading cards, particularly Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering.
- Discussion on how trading cards are seen as a viable investment and a nostalgic form of spending, particularly among younger generations.
- Highlighted the revenue model of platforms that combine trading cards with gaming elements.
- Emerging Collectible Platforms:
- Mention of Collector's Crypt and the success of their tokenized trading card platform.
- Concerns about market inefficiencies where selling prices significantly differ from market prices.
- Gambling and Revenue Meta
- Current Gambling Trends:
- Acknowledgment of the gambling aspect in trading card platforms.
- Discussion on how platforms like PumpFun and Hyperliquid operate and generate revenue, mainly through trading and gambling mechanics.
- Cultural Shifts:
- Analysis of Gen Z's spending habits, including a decline in aspirations to own homes and a shift towards collectibles as luxury items.
- The cultural acceptance of collectibles as a form of investment among younger consumers.
- Future Predictions
- Market Outlook:
- Spencer predicts continued interest and growth in the collectibles space as it aligns with broader economic trends and consumer behavior.
- Emphasis on identifying the right platforms and collectibles as potential investment opportunities.
- Advisory on Collectibles:
- Importance of understanding market dynamics, especially for newer collectors entering the space.
- Caution advised regarding the emerging technologies that could impact the trading card market, such as CT scanning for authentication.
Key Takeaways
- Institutional Interest: Bitcoin's behavior increasingly resembles traditional equities, suggesting a shift in how institutional investors view cryptocurrencies.
- Collectible Revival: The resurgence in trading cards reflects broader trends in luxury consumer spending, particularly among younger demographics.
- Market Dynamics: The balance between risk and reward in trading card investments requires careful analysis of market conditions and consumer interest.
- Future Trends: The intersection of collectibles and crypto is likely to create new investment opportunities, particularly as platforms evolve and consumer interest grows.
Conclusion This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of current market dynamics in both cryptocurrency and collectibles, highlighting the increasing convergence of these sectors and the implications for investors. The conversations suggest a keen interest in understanding the cultural shifts driving these trends and the potential for emerging investment opportunities in the collectibles market.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00For those of us who live in brief crypto, Bitwise is a name you want to know. They've been in the game since 2017 and now manage over 10 billion in crypto assets across 30 different solutions. Index funds, Bitcoin and crypto equity ETFs, on-chain solutions, you name it, Bitwise does it. But here's what I really recommend checking out. Their weekly CIO memo. Every week, CIO Matt Hogan breaks down what's happening in crypto. Like why Bitcoin's up or down, what the big institutions are doing, and the story is flying under the radar. It's sharp, it's free, and honestly, it's one of the best reads in crypto.
0:32Find it at bitwiseinvestments.com forward slash CIO memo. Again, bitwiseinvestments.com forward slash CIO memo. Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.
1:07Hello again. We're back again for another episode of WreckVision. It's Friday, and that means the market is selling off again. We had some economic data earlier today, but yeah, it looks like Bitcoin's down a couple of percent. Nothing crazy from where it was an hour or two ago. We've got Spencer back again, CEO, co-founder of OCAP Games. who's also primarily involved in the Moonbirds right now, known as an NFT goat trader. I thought he'd come back on to speak about everything that's going on in the market. Thanks a lot for coming back on. Spencer, how are you doing? I'm doing good, Mando. Thanks for having me.
1:45I've survived the flash crash of Bitcoin from$113k to$110k. I feel like every day I wake up and I check the timeline, people are like, I can't believe we're crashing. What is this sell-off? Oh my God, I check the charts and we're down a percent. And I'm like, dude, back in my day, like a flash crash meant we're down 20, 30%. 1%, dude, like that's not even a move. Yeah, there's only one reply to that, which is hyper liquid. I think people are really using perps at the moment. They are, they're involved in a lot of altcoins, which haven't really had a great, great period here. And it's right, you're right there.
2:22Like people are willing to throw away the whole cycle on a 1 % move on Bitcoin. It's like, it's over, you know, it's, It's completely over because Bitcoin's dropped 1%. I think that points to the idea. I've realized, having been in crypto for a long time, is that some people just persistently lose money. And there are multi-cyclers that just... I don't think there's any way to fix that. They are always doing the most degenerate thing. And they'll have really good run-ups and they'll just lose it all. And I think on this move from 123K back to 111K, I think the damage done in terms of number of traders is actually very high.
2:59That's probably true. But it's also one thing that's really striking to me is we saw about a 0.6 % move in the S &P today. This is actually... It used to be like... The moves in crypto were really acute crypto-related moves. But whereas crypto volatility actually feels lower to me than it's been at this point in a cycle in the past, the public market volatility seems kind of high. I feel like it's really commonplace right now that we'll have these half a percent percent moves on either Fed News or payrolls or basically any meaningful economic moment. And I feel like that seems more exaggerated.
3:43And so it's odd to me because those two things are kind of happening at the same time. Yeah. Yeah. Bitcoin has been in this pretty narrow range. it's it's managed to keep this kind of 110k area of support which was the previous all-time high that that was touched upon for about six months and then we kind of broke through it and it's stuck in this sort of one i guess 123 to 110 range and in that time it does feel as though stocks have had a little bit more volatility at least in in the last week or so today we did get a we have nfps which is normally particularly september nfps is normally quite a big deal if we look we had the first negative nfp figure for many many months years even and it looks like now obviously looks like they're gonna have to cut rates makes the the jobs market a little bit look a little bit more fragile and perhaps more pressure on power to do maybe multiple rape cuts this cycle.
4:50I don't know right now. Sometimes when that happens and you start to see this weakness in the jobs market, the stock market doesn't like it, but things like gold and Bitcoin don't do too badly. What's your view here on this sort of a bad jobs figure? Is that bullish or bearish, you think, for the market here? I mean, look, I think that what we see is we see Bitcoin is starting to perform more like the S &P. And that makes sense, right? Because in its transition to being more institutional this cycle, it has a lot of the same holders and the same holder base. And you can hold it in your retirement account, investment account.
5:32I think that we will see a convergence of Bitcoin's behavior to S &P rather than Bitcoin's convergence in behavior towards gold. I think that's what we're seeing. Now, why is that? I mean, I think you could justify it any which way, right? Like, maybe it's just, you know, it's kind of the same inflows, the same outflows. But it is not currently seen as an inflation hedge as some of these other hedges that I think it was intended to serve as whereas gold, you know, gold's on a generational run, right? Like gold's been doing really, really well. Obviously, Bitcoin has also done incredibly well post, you know having its etf right but like if you look the last two three months like i think that you see very clearly bitcoin trades more like the public markets more like smp than it does like gold um now why is that in its correlation to payrolls etc um you know that i don't know for sure but i think it's not just on payrolls it's overall in the moves of the market it.
6:34Yeah, I would agree that at least more recently, it's had more of a correlation to stocks. It does have still this idea of digital gold. So when stuff goes badly, at least Bitcoin itself seems to do okay. I think altcoins can obviously trade very much like risk assets in those sort of moments. But Bitcoin often nosedives and then recovers one of the best things across global markets. But that's how I kind of see this right now. I kind of see today's figure as Bitcoin dominance could go a little bit higher here because the next major figure will now be CPI. And let's hope that we don't have a high figure there because then the market might really freak out.
7:18But if we do get the idea that we're going to get rate cuts and that we're starting to see a little bit of weakness in the US economy, then I think that points to at least Bitcoin first and then maybe altcoins later. So I've been saying for the last month or two that I think that we've got some decent flow back into Bitcoin. I expect to see in September and October. And I continue to think that. I continue to think that Bitcoin is going to be the best asset to own, at least for this month and potentially the next month, too. We've also seen some of the L1s start to move as well. I think we saw that when you were last on the show, ETH was the one really breaking out.
8:01And since then, ETH kind of hit 4 ,900, retrenched back to like 4 ,000, whatever, 200, 300. And Solana has now broken through 200. It's time to look a little bit better. The Hyperliquid, again, has been a very, very strong mover just on this like revenue meta. Is there any of these sort of smart contract platforms, L1s, which you think are looking the most attractive to you now? Now, I think you said that there was a time to rotate into Solana. Do you think we're kind of there? Yeah. I mean, look, I think the question is, is the Solana ETF coming? Yes or no, right? And I think unambiguously, if the Solana ETF comes tomorrow, we see a really meaningful candle, right?
8:41Because what happened with the prior environment was like, okay, Bitcoin did really well after its ETF. ETH had done really poorly after its ETF. Now ETH is at least doing pretty good again. And so I think that there's no strong argument right now that the ETFs are bearish. And I think you see that like not only ETFs, but like the treasury meta has really picked up alongside the sort of public markets narrative, right? And we see these like digital asset treasuries spinning up, becoming a big thing. There are a lot of thoughts there, but like, like there are, you know, ones for Solana. Obviously, you know, Tommy Lee has become the face of ETH.
9:15I don't think Solana really in the public markets has a face right now, right? And so I think that there's two strong catalysts that are potentially coming. One is a Solana spot ETF seems overdue at this point. And I think that it is no longer ambiguous whether ETFs are positive for price action on a coin. So if Solana gets an ETF, I think you see a god candle. Solana also doesn't have a successful Tommy Lee figure out in the market doing their thing. And you've got to think that that's coming, right? Regardless if there's an ETF or not, everyone said, oh, there can't ever be another Michael Saylor.
9:51Oh, Michael Saylor is the only person in the entire world that can do that job. And I just don't believe that. I think we see that that isn't the case. Tommy Lee has become Michael Saylor for Ethereum. And so you might say, oh, well, there's no way that Solana can have their Michael Saylor or their Tommy Lee. I just don't believe that. There's going to be someone who is the right mix of in the public eye on financial markets, markets kind of has some sort of respect and like just goes and just their whole persona becomes hard shill some sort of solana dat at the same time that an etf is coming like it just is too obvious a play for no one to do it right and so i think to me like solana has to be next up hyperliquid is like interesting but also you know i'm a little bit hesitant to think about long-term value for things that revenue generate as substantially as Hyperliquid does.
10:46I think we even see this across other parts of this market where there was a big pullback in pump fund volume and revenue because people were just losing too much money. If your argument is Hyperliquid does so well because it makes so much money, well, where does the money come from? It comes from liquidations of its users. right and so if you're just so like what if the argument is the chart of hyperliquid looks so good because it's making so much money then that is also the argument of like hyperliquid looks so good because its users are losing so much money right and like i'm just not convinced that hyper liquid is gaining the marginal user quickly enough that like it balances out the attrition of just like the users they have like it's almost like too efficient at taking their money and that makes sense like i think there's a real and very like a very real problem that pump fun had right where the trenches just lost too much money.
11:38And so there was no more money to trade with. Yep. But the casinos at Vegas get bigger every single year. I think I'm still in the belief. The casinos at Vegas are having their worst year ever. I guess that's because of the rights of iGaming. But gambling in our culture, I think is going up extraordinarily at the moment. And I would guess that levered herbs is still going to be a thing now for the next 10 years. I think that gambling, owning different slices of the gambling method, I think is actually quite a unique ownership. I agree with you, though, that Hyperliquid, I don't think people get how much, how many traders as a percentage lose on something like Hyperliquid.
12:19Like it's 10 or less percent are winning traders. So I do agree with you that Perps is not some incredible product where you're just going to make money and people will get destroyed. but um going back to go ahead no i was just gonna say going back to your original point about the daps the other thing i would say this week is i just i don't know if the dap trade is necessarily as strong as it was you saw this week that the nasdaq came out and they said look every single dap now is meant to have a shareholder vote every single time they buy more for crypto and you saw most of the daps trade a little bit lower on the back of that headline that nasdaq is kind of responding to this so these reverse merger deals and the idea that so many of the of the companies on the nasdaq are now going after this this uh this that treasury style uh way to to grow i and and also the mnavs are all kind of approaching one up is a solana that really going to be the thing anymore do you think they can raise like 10 20 billion to kind of like really propel it?
13:29Yeah, well, so here's the thing. I mean, I think it's worth taking a step back. I don't know how much you've talked about on the show, like what DATs are, right? But DATs are this kind of like, weird thing that's happening right now, which is this, which is like, if you buy a company that's publicly listed, it's about to get delisted, like a shell company, a zombie company, right? You can buy it for probably like 20 mil or so, right? The control of it. What you do is let's say you take 100 mil of crypto and you put it on its balance sheet, right? The market currently values that company at like 1.5x the NAV.
13:58So you bought it for 20, put in 100, and it's worth 150, right? And you've just made$30 million. So this is magic thing going on. And it seems weird that that works, right? And it maybe shouldn't. Well, but the strongest argument I've seen as to why that works is this, is should the company be worth less than its NAV, right? Probably no, right? And is Michael Saylor's micro strategy, should that be worth more than anyone else who's doing Bitcoin version of that? I would say yes. And so therefore, that should trade above. Is Tommy Lee, should that be worth more than anyone else who is doing the similar strategy?
14:33Yes, because he's gotten the marketing right. And so what is it that these companies are competing on is who is the ace running it? There's enough of these in the works. I think there have been a few of the Solana ones announced. We see some other ones coming. but like there's a couple of reasons why this can't last forever. One is like this magical thing where it trades 1.5x nav is not an efficient market outcome probably, right? And so like that will go away at some point. One thing that I'm very keen on is whenever the musical chair, the music stops this cycle, I think spot bidding some of them is really interesting when they go under nav.
15:08But the second reason that this can't last forever is there's not infinity zombie companies, right? The quality of shell goes down and down and down as well. over time, right? There's not that many good shells to buy to do this with. So I do think that there are Solana treasuries coming for sure. I think they're already in the works. I think there are even some that are live. There are some that have been announced. Yeah, but they're normally partnered with a VC firm that's been in Solana and has kind of helped exceed it. But I can't draw to mind any single person who's really leading the marketing of those right like like so much of the premium for for micro strategy is is is is is because of sailor like so much of the premium um for tommy lee's vehicle is like him right and like we don't have the the him in the public markets and i don't think it has to be someone that like you or i know from ct like it probably shouldn't be right like it should probably be like someone who's just like on cnbc or whatever anyway and like people kind of know and like we just get up around there is one guy i think i saw it's this guy james zang have you seen him at all his sharps technology i think they've tried to tried to do this and i've seen him he's basically trying to pitch himself as that i don't know yeah yeah this is such an obvious play like there's surely many people trying to be that i'm just saying i don't know that anyone's succeeded in being that yet but i also don't think it's that hard to succeed in being that and and i think that there's enough economic value to be captured if you are that that someone will figure it out like it like there my belief in the efficiency of markets leads me to believe that someone will become that.
16:45Because if you look, none of these vehicles started all that big, right? It's like the play is do it with 100 mil, be the loudest voice in the room, and they go raise like billions, right? And so like, I think that the cabal of Wall Street has not picked the winner on Solana yet. But when they do, like that is what happened in the Ethereum world was the cabal of Wall Street picked a winner, right? And they gave him tons of money and then ETH like God-candled, right? I think that we see that here too at some point. When and if Wall Street picks the winner, we see proper god candles. I also think that as there are fewer and fewer viable shells, I'm very keen on seeing the first one of these where they don't buy exactly a zombie company.
17:26Where they buy a company that actually has some sort of operational pitch in addition to it having crypto on its balance sheet. And it's more of like a pitch to try and take it. you know back what we saw in like 2020 where like in 2021 where like people would just add like AI to their name or whatever or like chatbot or whatever to their name and then Polaroid stock went up because it went from multiple of revenue in one category to multiple revenue in the other category I think we start to see like crypto coming into public market companies that are not like dead companies I think that's the next wave of this
18:05Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond.
18:38With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus. Yeah, I think that's fair as well. I actually thought that would be the first thing. I thought we'd start to see some of the major, maybe not even the major, but like the middling group of tech firms start to explore crypto on their balance sheets.
19:18Because as soon as we started to see this sort of, that the equity markets were valuing crypto as a business a little bit higher, but we haven't seen that yet. So I agree with you. I think we started to see some of the Mag7 get into this. I think Google's obviously bought a Bitcoin miner or taken a substantial stake in a Bitcoin miner, although that may be like an AI play. And then it's also talking about maybe even doing its own L1 blockchain, I think via Google Cloud. But there's the foothills of that. But yeah, I agree with you. We'll start to see some of the, I wouldn't say the mid-sized NASDAQ firms maybe look at this as a ploy rather than just like a shell.
19:57The other thing you said there, I think we'll get into a little bit more is this hyper liquid. One of the biggest movers this week was PumpFun, which is another one of these revenue meta slash casino coins somewhat where PumpFun obviously is the biggest token launchpad on Solana. Actually, across all of crypto, yeah. They came up with a new strategy this week. Basically, they are a token creation platform, but they also have a streaming bit of their business. And if you speak to management there, they are really trying to go after the Twitch's kicks of the world and try and win market share there, where each creator on their platform actually has a coin.
20:41And they basically jacked up the fees. I think 10x the fees this week. So they were giving out something like$2 million a day to creators on their platform. And this is already with this. To put it into perspective, PumpFun makes about half the amount of revenue as hyperliquid, yet trades, I think, about a tenth of the price. And the markets liked it. They like this story. This was a coin which a lot of VCs were involved in the deal. They did a big public token sale as well. And it hadn't performed that well. It went up to about$7 billion FTV, then back down to like$2 billion as we substitute competitors from people like Bonk.
21:23They did a big competitive platform. They kind of regained all the market share. It's now trading at about$4.5 billion. What do you think of that versus Hyperliquid on the revenue meta? Well, I think I want to start with one thing you said at the beginning, which is like it's trading a tenth the price. And that I'm not 100 % aligned on. in that I think one of the main hallmarks of how I think about Hyperliquid is I would take a very strong stance that Hyperliquid's float is much lower than you think it might be. Meaning like, although we see the FDB is high and like the price per token is high, like how much of Hyperliquid is actually circulating versus how much of Pump is actually circulating.
22:04I would take the stance that there's just not a lot of actually circulating supply of the hype token. I think there's a lot of speculation that some of the early airdrop was sort of like internally farmed and is actually off the market. And so one of the reasons for, I think we see this across a couple of tokens in the market right now, there's been this meta behind the scenes where a lot of the tokens launching have been seeing how low can we actually get TrueFloat versus like what might be listed on CoinMarketCap in order to just like be able to send it with very little amounts of buy pressure, right?
22:38Like that's very much a meta behind the scenes in the token world. I'm not going to call out any specific names there, but there's some pretty obvious examples of this. And so that's not the point of perspective where I would maybe start looking at these coins from. One of the more challenging things about looking at crypto this cycle is that that particular thing of the floats being kind of funky across them has made it really challenging to compare apples to apples when it comes to coins. Just the actual circulating supply is so, so different. When it comes to Pump, Pump does have real revenue.
23:11I think the big question for Pump is how long does that revenue last? In a market correction, does that revenue go essentially to zero and for how long? Because this is the scary thing about these crypto companies that are revenue generating from some version of trading, both Pump and Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is making money off liquidations. Pump is making money off volume. But both are just making money off trading. and we know that there are fewer trades that go on in a bear market, right? And we're definitely in a bull market. Like this is unambiguously, we are not in a bear market right now, right?
23:45And so I am very... Whereas when we talk about revenue meta, something like Pudgy Penguin, something like Rex, that their revenue comes from outside of crypto, comes from selling drinks, comes from selling toys, right? If your revenue comes from outside of crypto, I think it's actually completely the opposite case where you should sustain better in a market crash than your average crypto company because your revenue is probably, although not uncorrelated, it's probably less immediately affected. I would expect pump funds volume to go down 90 % to 95 % in a bear market. And so the question for me as a trader, when I look at the pump token is like, okay, it's very clear that they're doing good revenue.
24:27That revenue is positively correlated to their outcome. But over what time horizon do I think that they will continue to have this revenue? And this is why it scares me a little bit, the PumpFun narrative of like, we're going after Twitch, we're going after YouTube. Those are very challenging multi-year projects. And it will be exponentially harder when Pump's token goes down. If their revenue goes down, that is a Web2 play that should take years to fully realize. But so much of your core product is correlated to Web3 revenue and volume. right and that's a core like conflict that i have trouble personally wanting to buy pump uh or or hyperliquid but also like i should say like i have missed out a lot of games by not buying hyperliquid so i'm probably not the right person to talk to uh there um but like the music will stop i think at some point for for both of these tokens for the same reason but like that would be efficient market outcome like efficient market i mean if their volumes decline like they should decline even when i mean even when bitcoin was was middle like was was much lower though meme coins and token token creation platforms or like the idea that we're going to go after new coins that was always still they were still popular during the bear right like it was always like all right we're going to buy new coins each day they wouldn't go as far and probably the revenue it was lower, but I still think that token creation platforms is a little less secular than I think there's something to be said for where is the new inflows of crypto capital coming from, right?
26:00The period of time under which PumpFun was performing really well in the bear, there's this really interesting thing that was happening, which was people weren't getting their crypto through centralized exchanges. They were going straight to like Moonshot and some of these other things to buy it with their credit card or bank account directly into a self-custody wallet with like phantom or something right and we saw this huge uptick of that kind of behavior where like you are going directly uh uh you know self-costal directly into crypto we saw this huge decline in like usage of centralized exchanges um and now really we don't see that like the the the the new inflows of capital to crypto i think are unambiguously coming from public markets uh they're not coming actually on chain and so uh if you look at the marginal pump fund user i don't think that pump fund users like there's more like i don't think that we're continuing to see even in this bull market which is surprising the amount of like net inflows coming in like the story of pump originally was like pump plus moonshot just caused this crazy run of net inflows right to crypto through through that sort of like combo with like bonk bot and it just became so easy um and i don't think that that has really continued in the way that i might have thought it would into a bull market uh especially because of how strong this public markets thing is in terms of like where the new inflows of capital are coming from.
27:11So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. What do you think though? Like, let's just imagine, because this is an attractive model now for a content creator. Let's say they managed to get a big streamer onto Pump here or a few big streamers. Do you not think that as a whole platform could snowball quite quickly if they managed to get one of the big guys?
27:50I think it could, but I'm a little bit more skeptical than perhaps than it sounds like you are that they do. Just because in order to do the thing you're talking about on PumpFun, you as a streamer must launch your own token. And I think that that adds compounding risk. I think it would be a huge mistake for them to bring a big streamer on right now when the market's really hot. Because that streamer, as soon as they experience the crash, is gone. We see this time and time again. I think if they want to do it right, they should wait until there is a major correction in the market to bring that streamer on.
28:24So the people who buy that streamer's token have more of a chance of making money.
28:32There are a lot of good streamers out there that do all sorts of stuff. but like I'm not sure that those people are ready to have a financial asset in market like a token right I'm not sure that like you know the someone whose job it is to like sit at their desk and like throw their hands in the air and like run around and make silly things and get flipping content is the right person to like steward a token this is just my my personal opinion I don't even believe that from like uh could they shill it hard enough perspective I believe that from like an emotional perspective of them is I think that when we see a big creator come on and they see their first 20 % pullback in their token I see we I think we see a crash out that like could really harm adoption for that long run and I just I don't believe that we see none cases of that right and I think that it's one of those like even if there's 10 that come on and have an incredible time and it's perfect it all it takes is one to like really crash out and ruin their reputation for everyone else in the industry to like not really want to do it yeah you have to find the right people and i agree with you as someone who has created several tokens uh the ups and downs are sometimes not fun it has to be a certain certain character type i think to go through that particularly if they're like attached to your name so oh yeah i would agree you're a trader right like i think it's fundamentally like you at least understand what's happening like it's like when influencers create tokens i think by and large we see they fundamentally don't understand what's happening yeah that's that's also true i think they they'll probably take it even more personally about that they don't understand that this is just how it works with 99 of tokens but i still think that they've got a shot i think where it trades right now i agree with what you're saying about about percentage of supply um at being actually circulating mostly hyperliquid.
Read the full transcript
30:19I think that's very true. Pump is a far more loose token than hyperliquid. I think the revenue is decent. I don't think they have an incredible moat. I don't think it's like it can never be challenged in the future. But I do think that if they get this creator platform, even going 50 % to 100 % more than it is right now, I think that could really re-rate the token. So I like Pump here. I don't see it going lower. That's my point. I just think it's kind of like the risk-reward of a trade like that. If it went back to$3 billion again, I think there'd be a lot of bars. Well, I mean, so I'm actually going to agree with you on that.
31:03But I think that like, you know, I don't want what I just said to come off as like too bearish on this. It's like in a market where it is a bull market like right now, like I think there's a reason this chart looks like this, right? Like it does generate revenue. the whole structure works, right? Like it's by, you know, there's the buyback and burn. It's very substantial. Like the revenue is very meaningful. Like all I'm saying is like, the question is like, okay, if you think the market lasts 18 more months, right? I think you bid pump. Like that makes sense. Like, like I think there's a, it would not shock me if we see a 2X on this token over the next, you know, even two, three months.
31:39Like that's very reasonable to me. I just think like you should be considering to some degree, the amount of compounding volatility that will end up happening in this token because its main narrative is derived from volume-based revenue. And crypto is cyclical. And at some point, that volume will go down. And I think that this will see a larger magnitude sell-off than other altcoins in that period of time. I think that's very fair. Right. Well, the other thing that was moving this week was perhaps something a little bit closer to your heart. We did see a bit of a shift in the meta. Obviously, there's been some wins in meme coins, but not that amazing.
32:21We've seen a move back towards NFTs. And then more recently, we've seen kind of this RWA narrative come back. Now, this started obviously with stocks and there's been about 10 different headlines about tokenized stocks this week. But in the trenches, so to speak, the move was towards tokenized trading cards. And this is something which I know you are very close with. OCAP Games is involved in the TCG space, as they call it. And we saw a little bit of this back in like 2021, 2022, but the platforms never really took off. And this cycle, we've started to see it come back. There's been a couple of big platforms that have come in and done okay through it.
33:03And I thought you were kind of the perfect person to speak to about this. What's been your take on this move towards tokenized trading cards? yeah so okay i have a lot of thoughts here um so basically like here's the dealio like rwas so like tokenized trading cards especially graded trading cards are like the really obvious thing to do with rwas because they just work in terms of like you know here is a trading card it is in a slab it's verifiable that it's real i can put it in a vault and know what it is and like there's price history and all that kind of stuff for the grade, right? It works really well for that concept.
33:42And for a very long time, I think the argument was stocks will come on chain at some point. And let's build all the infrastructure with trading cards and eventually do it with move that infrastructure over to stocks, right? Interestingly, when stocks came on chain, most of these RWA platforms that were doing trading cards didn't actually make that pivot, right? And as you mentioned, there were a lot of RWA trading card platforms, but there's not actually been historically a successful token launch or really any token launches out of them, right? They tend to be pretty good revenue generators. And they also tend to all kind of go towards like some sort of loot box style casino game, essentially with trading card as the intermediary, right?
34:17So if you look at something like Courtyard, for example, like their only real product is like, you know, basically a slot machine for trading cards, right and you get a randomized graded card and then you can either like sell it back to the platform they give you a bid immediately or withdraw it and almost everyone sells it back to the platform like it's more or less like a slot machine with trading card as an intermediary right we've seen some other platforms exist that are like kind of something else but every platform basically converges towards that um the thing that really kicked off this meta uh was was the launch of ticker cards from Collector's Crypt.
34:55Collector's Crypt is someone who we work with at Orange Cap Games. They're old Magic players that founded that, so near and dear to my heart. And they did a launch with Metaplex, Metaplex's new standard, which was really interesting on Solana. Metaplex is the group that makes a lot of the standards in Solana. I think they actually are the ones that wrote the NFT standard in Solana as a fun fact about Metaplex. But what we really see is actually, this is closer to pump than you think right in terms of like it's kind of another form of like gambling it's not exactly gambling but it's more or less that um and you know we're in this revenue gambling meta like this is one of the largest versions of that um one of the things that's really interesting is like that pokemon cards you know we talk about risk assets we talk about gold having this moment i mean pokemon cards are going on a heater the likes of which we may have never seen magic cards too i mean um it's kind of for different reasons but like you know the new products for pokemon just to break down the economics right if you're a vendor for pokemon you buy at wholesale a elite trainer box for pokemon at 35 i think the msrp is like 30 35 the msrp is like 45 50 or something as soon as it hits your shelf you can put it on ebay and sell it for 120 for every release right now at infinite size this is like the craziest thing for all retailers and it sells out instantly.
36:18That just gives you a sense of like how crazy the demand for Pokemon is right now. Individual cards selling for crazy, crazy numbers. Everything is just like gig ascending. It's like, and not even just like the good stuff, like everything, right? It's like, it's like, imagine that crypto is having alt season as well as Bitcoin being at 110. Like, that's what's going on in Pokemon right now. And so what's really interesting about that is, you know, when you see new adoption and new liquidity, there is actually probably real new liquidity coming into a lot of these platforms, right? Now, one of the things that's a little bit interesting about them is unlike in crypto, trading card markets are inefficient, right?
36:58And so the difference between market price and what you could sell for or buy for is very large, right? If I am selling a card, I am expecting to get about 30 % less than what I could get, than what I need to spend to buy it. That's like the wedge between them. And so one of the ARBs I think people need to be as consumers a little bit careful of these platforms, is that a lot of them market as like plus EV slot machines, right? Because, oh, your market price, the price that someone can sell it for, like, so if you want to go out and buy it, right? Like, this is the market price that it is, like, is plus EV.
37:30But if you were to try and sell it, it's actually minus 30%, right? And so that's a really big swing. And if you don't understand that that's how trading cards work, you might be like, oh, my goodness, here's my plus EV casino, but it's not really that, right? But it is fun and interesting and it reignites a little bit of joy in all of us from our childhoods, right? I think that's a really important part of what trading cards are and what they should be. What's exciting about this is like, you know, as an investor perspective, like, you know, I have not historically invested in these kind of companies because despite them being good revenue generating businesses, like slot machines are a good revenue generating business, like what's the outcome, right?
38:07Cards, ticker cards, the token for collector's crypt, I think it's at like, we should pull, but it sent pretty hard. Like, suddenly makes all these companies way more interesting because now they have a comp and market that actually did well. Right? I think that that's something that's incredibly meaningful because it almost in the past didn't matter how good you were. There wasn't a version of this that did well. I think this makes companies like Dilley, like Beasy, like a lot more interesting because we've seen a success case in this market for this type of product, right? And so many people have attempted this, but it just hadn't really worked.
38:43And I do think that this actually correlates to the larger narrative, which is revenue meta, right? Again, the benefit of running a slot machine that does a lot of volume is revenue. And I think that one of the things that really gets people into these kinds of products is it's that nostalgia. It's also that when I buy trading cards personally, I think of it as like discretionary spend. It's cool to go up in price, but I don't mean it's kind of an investment, right? But like, if you're, if you're like sitting, you know, if you're full time trading and investing in stuff, I think a lot of people use see these platforms more as fun than as trading.
39:21Whereas like, hyper liquid is definitely like, if we're taking the fundamentals, both of these are like, if you're trading with like 10x leverage, and you're spinning like a gotcha machine on a trading card platform, I'm going to go ahead and say, in my view, these are effectively the same thing. But I think in the mental buckets for most people, they're not, right? Most people are saying, one, I'm trading and the other one, I'm just like consuming. And therefore, like they're just discretionary spending bucket, which is probably pretty high right now, given the price of all crypto assets, right?
39:48Is like what I think trading cards successfully do in this market is they capture like discretionary spend. On top of that, there's a really big trend. And this is something that I, shout out from the rooftops about, which is that Gen Z does not aspire to own a house. This is really important because historically, we see that like people save money to buy a house, right? That's one of the main drivers of savings, I think, right? For people generally. And because housing is so expensive, Gen Z just feels out of reach. They don't even want to get there, right? And because of that, they actually have more discretionary spending than you'd think.
40:18And so what I view this run across not only crypto, but traditional trading cards as is, we see this not only in trading cards, we also see this in luxury, We're like, Louboutin. Can we just touch up on that a bit? Can we just put, how big a run have you seen? Because you're obviously, maybe the audience is not really aware of this, but there is a, at the moment, there is a huge run on collectible trading cards, particularly Pokemon cards, but also Magic the Gathering cards. Do you have any numbers around that? Like what was the growth have you seen this year? Yeah, I would say the average, like expensive Pokemon card is up anywhere from five to 10X this year, which is a crazy, crazy run.
41:00and for magic magic is very interesting the magic side of this like there is old stuff is not up that much it's the new stuff that's really printing in magic and by magic he means magic the gathering by the way Spencer is a pro magic player so he would be speaking about this like a pro but yeah this is magic the gathering which has been you know a collectible trading card game for is it longer than Pokemon like was it Yes, so Magic came out in 1993. Pokemon came out in 1996 in Japanese and 1999 in English. And, you know, what's been interesting is like the Holy Grail of Magic is the Black Lotus, right?
41:40Which is the oldest card. Alpha Black Lotus is the first printing of Black Lotus. Those will run you, based on condition, anywhere from 60 to 100K. And it's been the top dog for a very long time. Now, Magic recently has shifted off of its own IP to start using other IPs. They call it Universes Beyond. the first major set was Lord of the Rings and Lord of the Rings the one ring card the one ring sold for like two million dollars but recently they did the Final Fantasy set and they had this one card in the Final Fantasy the Traveling Chocobo which is serialized there's 70 of them and the Traveling Chocobo is selling for$70 ,000 and so the very interesting thing is Black Lotus has not really experienced this run that the rest of Magic cards have experienced the rest of like trading cards of experience the early magic stuff has not the new stuff they just printed this year is on this crazy seventy thousand dollars for a card printed this year is really nuts for magic is winning in the market is cards printed recently they're actually like dominating pokemon are you are you trying to are you trying to sell all the audience on your on your bags of old magic cards because that's what it feels like right now no the opposite i mean like look like a lot of the magic dealers i know are trading their bags of old cards for like new sealed product oh really wow interesting reasons for that is because there's a funny reason for that which is that magic can't reprint any of this stuff because their license is only to do one run so they would have to go back and do a whole new licensing deal to do it right and like magic is the next one coming up the next two coming up are spider-man and avatar the last airbender right and like you've got to think that those are bigger than final fantasy right um and so but i think this is just just just to perhaps a little bit of commentary on this um i just think it's really interesting because a lot of the audience will be like, oh, this is so dumb to spend your money on.
43:24But you really did hit the nail on the head, which is that people don't want to buy a house anymore. And the luxury assets or the collectible assets that millennials spend on is actually a bit of a shift from, let's say, the baby boomers. Yeah, you should have a spending on expensive bowls of wine and whiskey, but actually this sort of stuff, trading cards, is one of the number one things in terms of luxury flexes that millennials will spend on. Well, and speaking of things that are doing poorly, right? Like coins and stamps, not doing so hot, right? That's like, you know, when I think collecting, you know, the origins of collecting, I think coins and stamps.
44:06And it's really interesting that like trading cards are having this huge moment and coins and stamps are not. Yeah, and a lot of luxury isn't, right? Like I think a lot of luxury, because China obviously has dipped off from its luxury boom. and some of the older luxury uh items like watches whiskey wine this sort of stuff it's some of it's doing okay some of it's not doing okay we're having a bit of a bounce but like it's it's down bad whereas right now these trading cards have just like you said seven to ten x on pokemon cards is wild yeah i mean like and it's not like oh if you bought the right it's like everything right and that that's the wild part and that's what makes it feel kind of like really hot right now.
44:46But yeah, it's, it's, it's really interesting to see that like, you know, Rolex is, is down a lot, right? Like at a time when you might expect it to be up a lot. And I think this is the same kind of as like altcoins, right? Like altcoins kind of feel like Rolexes right now, where like, you know, you'd expect in a market boom, everything's pumping, like, like it's, it's, it's that they would also pump, but right now it's just, it's just not the case, right? And so, um, you know, you have to think like, why is that? And again, I really think it's this shifting consumer spend, you know, you speak about luxury, Louboutin, Gucci, like I think it's over the last 10 years, the average age of consumer for them has moved down one year every year, which is a huge shift.
45:21And the average spend at their stores is also like the average purchase has gone down as well. So like, whereas Louboutin and Gucci used to be like, I am very rich, I'm gonna go in and spend$20 ,000. I'm like 60 or 70 and in retirement. And like, I did really well in my career. Like it is now I am like a drop shipper in Miami, and I'm like 25. And I have a hundred bucks because I sold something. I'm going to go buy like something, the cheapest item in the store just to feel like I made it. Right. And so I think that like, like that is a paradigmatic shift because again, like if you're not saving for anything, then you have more discretionary spending.
45:54And it's not just, I mean, there is some amount of like rich people bidding some of this stuff, but really like, like you can't have the run that Pokemon is having with just wealthy people bidding, right? The structural bid coming to Pokemon is Gen Z is millennials, like purchasing cards in the like, you know, hundreds of dollars to$1 ,000 range, right? One of the things that's always been really interesting in trading cards is there's a huge drop off above$5 ,000 of how many people in the world will buy a card at that price. Like, you see this big valley where like cards that are there's very few cards in the five to $25 ,000 range.
46:31And once you get$25 ,000, there's this big jump where then suddenly the cards you want are$70 ,000 to$100 ,000 because it's really kind of uncorrelated to... It shouldn't be a stepwise function because there's just very different buckets of people that will buy those items. Where you do see very commonly is people coming in, I just want the best. What's the number one thing? There's always this distinct market for that that moves completely uncorrelated to the rest of the market, which is interesting. And bringing it back to just crypto right now so so is your view that this could continue to be a trend that this sort of crypto community which is generally i mean a lot of it is is kind of 30 to 40 year old males but millennials also interested in this sort of stuff um do you think that this to be a a a bit of a meta for a few months here where we start to trade these sort of things on chain like you said they have this gambling aspect with like the pack openings which which lends to good content.
47:28And I think just, like I said, like this overall gambling super cycle that we're kind of seeing. Are you bullish on this as a trend? Oh, I mean, like, I could not be more bullish. Like, I think I have been pretty outspoken for quite a while that this is where the industry has to head is like, there just like must be a convergence between like collectibles and crypto because they are fundamentally the same thing and have the same audience. Like one of the things that I hear from my trading card dealer friends, not only is the correlation between the price of crypto and the price of cards, but also like increasingly the number of their buyers that are coming in and spending crypto, right?
48:02Like I get hit up basically once a day from someone I know in the trading card world asking me how they can start accepting crypto payments for their store and like the legality of it and that kind of thing. Like there is, and we already saw this happen in watches. By the way, I don't know if you know this, basically 100 % of the watch industry happens with USDT on Tron. Crazy, right? Very interesting. Like the trading card market. Oh, And by the way, this was greatly accelerated because PayPal now, if you do over$600 of transactions, does all this tax reporting requirements for you. And so suddenly, this very cash business that used to use PayPal is looking for a different digital payment method.
48:41And what's the best digital payment method where Vitalik's not going to mail your info to the IRS? It's crypto. And so I think this convergence is inevitable because it's the same people. right and so like i am very excited to see the success of ticker cards and collector script is a great company right but you you got to believe that like it's not the only good company in this space and because there is now at least one successful token associated to it right you're going to see more investment into these platforms it's always been this hard pitch of like these platforms seem like they should work and other things in collectibles and crypto seem like they should work but there's never been a good outcome now we have at least the taste of that right and And the taste of it means that we can replicate it, but turbo.
49:23And so like, you know, look, there was like Pokemon names as like meme coins on pump fund that were runners over the last week. Like that probably is a very short lived meta. Like the convergence of collectibles and crypto is not a meta in my mind. This is like a paradigmatic shift that correlates with paradigmatic shifts in the structure of how spending and consumer behavior works globally. And I think it's something that's like not a new trend, right? When you look in Asia, Sequoia China only does collectibles. Sequoia China basically only deploys into collectibles businesses. Their biggest win is Popmart.
49:59They've backed their own trading card grading platform. All of VC in China, not crypto VC, all of VC in China right now is basically just doing collectibles. And we see China's leading America in collectibles trends, which is a huge shift like labubu started in the boo was big in china a year before it was big here um probably the next one that's big i think is going to be we're gonna see this renaissance of brick products so like legos megablocks that kind of thing uh led by that lego just got the pokemon ip license and so we're gonna see which megablocks used to have or uh it wasn't megablocks it was one of the i think something like megablocks used to have it um and so like right now in china it's like like like Pop Mart actually has pop bricks.
50:43That's all the rage right now in China. If you go to the US, the blind boxes you cannot find in Pop Mart stores, but all the pop bricks are just fully stocked on the shelves because no one in the US wants them yet. And that's basically what Labubu was like 12 months ago. So like, as you said, so much of the Asia spend drove like watches and luxury, like that spend in Asia has moved to like trading cards and blind boxes. And like this level of sophistication of collector base there is starting to creep up. That's a lot of this interest in what's going on. I think this is something which is unique to cards, which again, the audience may not be aware of, is this pack opening.
51:28You can't do this with any other collectible. The idea that you can gamble on what you're going to get when you buy a luxury item and that you create content around that. And obviously this can be done on the crypto platforms as well, as well as people, you know, they fill themselves opening packs of these sort of cards, sometimes like very expensive packs that they'll open it and they'll create content around it. You can't do that with watches or wine or classic cars. It doesn't work. That's why I think also this collectible itself is kind of so well suited to the current environment of millennials, let's say, which is where, let's say, a lot of the money is kind of moving towards.
52:11In terms of you're super bullish on this, we've already spoke about collector's prep and the cards coin, which, I mean, it's now at like$400 million FDB. I mean, it's been a meteoric rise over the last week. You've clearly got your ear to the ground here. I know you've also involved in Moonbirds, which has been pretty publicly saying, we might look at all this sort of stuff. Alongside Moonbirds, what else do you think is interesting investments people should be looking at? Maybe in crypto and outside of crypto? Well, yeah. I mean, so I think my view of this is if you think collectibles will be a thing, there's a bunch of different types of collectibles that exist in in things that touch collectibles right so there's like okay cards is a big thing you could say what are the next cards and maybe the answer is you just focus on the platforms that are like most similar to collector's crypt right it's pretty obvious it's courtyard dilly bz um kind of segment like um outside of crypto you've got like box gg but in crypto it's like there's a couple there's a handful of them um which which which are very relevant, right?
53:15Those are the exact corollaries. My view, and this is kind of where we sit, is like one of the other things that's happened recently, it's very interesting. Like, you know, we make Vibes, which is the Pudgy Penguins trading card game. The first edition boxes, we just released the second edition. The first edition boxes of Vibes went from, their MSRP was like 144. I think when Pengu crashed, it went to like 120 on eBay. So now they're selling for like$350 on eBay, right? First edition booster boxes. is. I think like, you know, owning the platforms is great. But I think that you should also be looking for like, what are the grail collectibles in this format in crypto?
53:49Obviously, I'm quite biased, because I think we make a lot of the ones that are the grail collectibles. But like, my race, and this is where I think, you know, our company is pretty far ahead in this industry is like, can you create collectibles to the quality that people who are not just in crypto think of this as a good collectible, right? Are you making trading cards that are nice enough? Are you making blind boxes that are nice enough? Are you making items that are in... It will be bricks as well. It's like, who's actually making collectibles products? I think you see this in Pudgy Penguin's Eco too, right?
54:17Like the giant vinyl figures, which I think is the best collectible product that Pudgy released, are also having a pretty meaningful renaissance right now in terms of what people are trying to buy within them. Part of it is like, do you spot bid the... Do you try and find a way to get exposure to the companies or do you try and get exposure to the collectibles themselves, right? And I think like, you know there's even this further step you can take is like do you want to get exposure to the ip right we talked about like the the reason for magic's boom is its licensing of other ips drove it really really far right like the ips themselves that lend themselves collectibles end up growing itself like labubu is really interesting because labubu i mean it was an ip exterior to collectibles but like for all intents and purposes in terms of its reach like like it became a thing because of collectibles, right?
55:05So this is one of the things for us in Moonbirds is like, how do we make RIP a bigger thing through collectibles, right? When it comes to exposure to the space, if you're looking outside of crypto, right? And you want to buy things, I think my view, I think you want to look for ecosystems where you can buy the absolute best, like whatever that is, because that tends to be more resilient to market corrections the things that feel the most frothy generally are like the lower end of pokemon to me feels the most frothy because it's like i don't in a crash like when everything else is like it is like those cards are only desirable because the other cards are out of reach when everything corrects those cards just become less desirable because you can afford the cards that are slightly better right i would also like i'm a big believer in pokemon specifically you want to be really looking at the old stuff wizards of the coast era pokemon is what you want because it just like has structural demand in a different way, right?
56:06But like, you know, when it comes to like generally, how do you get exposure to collectibles? I think that you also just have to go on your own journey of like what sparks joy for you. And do you think that you're similar to other people? Like I've made a lot of, like my net worth for a very long time in my life was 90 % Magic the Gathering cards. And that returned like 20%, Sorry, 20x over like 10 years. It's just so funny talking about something like this. Obviously, you've moved into crypto, but I just don't think there is a whole generation or multiple generations that don't realize that this is what people are selling their money.
56:43My move into crypto was I looked at crypto and was like, oh, this is the same shit. I looked at NFTs and was like, oh, this is just trading cards, but in crypto. And instead of paying eBay 20 % every time I want to sell them or having to ship them, I pay, at the time, OpenSea like 5%. That was a marginal innovation in the collectible space. I think that's the other really bold case on some of these RWA platforms. And this is actually, eBay has started to move kind of towards this. Which is like, if you sell a card on eBay, you have to pay 20 % fee. That's quite a lot. But in crypto, the whole bold case of these RWA platforms is like, the cards exist in a vault, and you can just trade them.
57:23There's no shipping involved because you trade the token that represents the right to claim it. If you want the card in hand, you can ship it to you. But the reason that eBay has a 20 % fee is because it has to cover losses and claims. There's a lot of overhead it must cover because of the fraud and all this kind of stuff. Where these RWA places make a lot of sense. And eBay has a competitor to this. eBay has eBay Vault, where it's the same thing. It's kind of like gold. Globally, when you trade a lot of gold, you're not mailing people gold bars. There's a vault somewhere and you take the tag off your bar of gold and you move it you put another, and the gold doesn't physically move.
57:58And that's how like trading cards are starting to trade both on eBay and off eBay. But the thing that I would caution people against, that'd be very, very careful. I personally do not collect a lot of sealed Pokemon and especially sealed sports cards. One of the scariest things in the trading card industry today is the emergence of CT scanners that are good enough to, so cat scanners, like if you have at the airport, they're good enough to scan. So this started in sports cards because rare sports cards usually have a jersey in them or something else where they're a different shape and size. And someone was taking a sealed box, a$10 ,000 sealed booster pack of sports cards through an airport, looked at the screen and said, I can see what cards in there.
58:41And since then, they've gotten good enough where today it's expensive to do. Right. But like if you have a base set Charizard booster box, base set first edition booster box, you can scan the box and see which pack is the Charizard today. And that technology, I think, will only get cheaper and scarier. So I'm personally not a big collector of sealed product for Pokemon or sports cards for that reason. But I think that if you look at the early stuff, like Shadowless base set Charizard, that's a good buy. I personally really like Japanese Pokemon. I think especially if you get the no rarity symbol base set, stuff that hasn't had as much of a, relatively it hasn't pumped as much.
59:24I think it's a good buy right now. But, you know, look, there's a lot of good collectibles. If you want the intersection of crypto and TCG, you know, I think Vibes is the flagship product. I'm obviously very biased because we made Vibes, but like, I don't think that you see another physical collectible coming out of crypto that's as like popular and successful outside of crypto as Vibes TCG today. I just don't think you see that. yeah i i mean you're the purpose i have on this this week because this is it has just gone crazy this week and this has been kind of the number one thing that people have been focused on and all the platforms doing it are rallying and everyone's like well i don't want to i can't be bothered to trade memes anymore and i can't be bothered to trade nfts like this i have more joy doing this with with um with collectibles and collectible trading cards so i feel like this is going to be a medium-term trend i'll be very interested to see how this goes over the next two years because i agree with you that now now is it's sharp to really work there was like a brief period where it felt like it was going to happen in 2020 or sorry 2021 2022 and then it kind of fizzled out now it really feels as though we could see a bit of a an extended run there so i think it's going to be very interesting um we have we obviously spend a lot of time just speaking there about collectibles and collectible trading cards but i think that was it's very interesting i don't think many people in the in the crypto world are kind of aware that those those two are merging right now and you're starting to see very big gains and anything associated with it.
1:00:50We'll do one or two questions just to finish. Francisco on the Real Vision website says, question regarding abstract blockchain. They recently had various businesses launching Gacha game, 2 million plus revenue, PlayGigiverse,$1.5 million revenue, myriad markets. Can you discuss your thoughts on crypto entrepreneurs when choosing a blockchain to launch a product on? Can you comment on the qualities of Abstract that intrigue you? So basically, do you think Abstract is a good chain for an entrepreneur? And is there anything specific about it that you like? Yeah, I mean, I think, obviously, I'm very close to that ecosystem.
1:01:28I think that we have seen a large number of very revenue-generating products deploy onto Abstract. If you look at the Pudgy Penguins team, when it comes to marketing, there's basically no one else in the space that is as good as them, right? And so your ability to work with the abstract team, get that marketing engine behind you, like from user adoption revenue perspective, is very substantial. I think that's why you see really strong teams like the ones you just mentioned, like choosing abstract, right? And so it is very real. It is a very interesting chain also because it is very global. there's a lot of people in russia um a lot of the abstract streams are russian language um the philippines etc like there's a lot of like which which is why some of these like gotcha games like kind of more gambling-y things like really like you see a lot of them being the thing that is successful in abstract because russian is just like like to gamble right that's part of what's going on on abstract um there's also a global audience there's also an american audience and all these other things but like the thing where it seems to have really found product market fit is in these various like kind of gambling games right um there's like a sheep one that did really well, Moon Sheep or something, which was like, there's been a bunch of like kind of casino style things that have done really well on Abstract.
1:02:39And I think when it comes to like, just reach a net new inflows of people, it is a tier one chain, I think unambiguously. What I will be very interested to see, right? And what we haven't really seen happen yet, but we also haven't seen it not happen yet is a native Abstract project's token launch and pump really hard, right? Like one of the things that Abstract doesn't have as much of as some of the other chains is just TVL. And so there's often been this perception of like, can you have a$500 million coin on Abstract when there's only, you know, if you do$100 million of cash on the chain? Now, that being said, like a lot of chains out there have like really fake TVL.
1:03:24Like there's a lot of deals that get done in crypto where you provide TVL in exchange for like tokens of the native chain just to like pump all the metrics people think matter, right? Like let's be very clear that that is a very common thing in crypto that almost every chain does. It does not seem like Abduck has done that kind of deal. And so, you know, I think I commend them for just sort of not doing that just because like I think it's more transparent what's actually going on. But, you know, one of the questions is does that hurt the ability for there to be like crazy runners from major projects, right?
1:03:54So if you were looking to make a revenue-generating product and you need a lot of users, I think it's an incredible change. If you are looking to launch the highest value token, I'm not saying it's a bad option. I'm just saying it seems like we have not seen that happen yet. That being said, I do think that because of that, there is a lot more vested interest from everyone around its ecosystem in seeing that happen. So if you can be that one, then there's a huge opportunity there. And also, I should say this is true of most L2s, right? like, we don't even really see that much like crazy runners on base.
1:04:27Polygon, it's been a really long time since we've seen a runner, right? Like, you know, I think this is one of the challenges that something like a Polymarket might face is like, you know, if Polymarket launched even on Ethereum, right? But like, realistically, right now, it's like, Solana is the chain that has runners. But, you know, that's kind of the thing that really seems to be driving everything right now. Yeah, I'd agree. It's done very well with more consumer apps, less on like big token values or TVL, but it does. I think Blast had an okay job of this too. And then it just kind of fizzled out because the TVA fizzled out.
1:04:59I don't think abstract necessarily relies on it as much. So I think it's an interesting one. And then finally, we kind of already had this, is what's the best way to get exposure to these cards if you don't collect? I think we kind of touched on that already in that probably some of the older Pokemon Japanese cards. It feels like the obvious way. or you can start to look at some of these intersections between crypto and NFTs and collectibles, which is largely what Spencer's doing. So go follow him and some of the stuff he's doing in this space. Right. We went slightly over time there, but I thought it was a very interesting chat.
1:05:36Awesome to have you on again, Spencer. Thanks so much for coming. Bitcoin is doing okay. We're still holding now around$111K. I still think the bull market's intact. Stocks are a little bit lower today. So I think hopefully it will be a little bit higher next week. I think we're going to do the show with OSF next week. It's going to be the drinks with OSF and Mando. So make sure you get a Real Vision subscription. If you haven't yet, we're going to go through a bunch of different things on the market then. But until then, Spencer, thanks for coming back on. You've been a great guest. And we will hopefully see you again in the next few weeks.
1:06:06Yeah, thanks for having me, Mando. And thank you to Real Vision for hosting. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.
1:06:45See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets.
1:07:19Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus.
From the publisher
This week on REKT Vision, Mando, Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, is joined by Spencer, CEO of Orange Cap Games and Spencer Ventures. They discuss the biggest narratives and themes driving cryptocurrencies right now, including the labor market weakness, the Federal Reserve's potential next move, the collectibles market, and much more.
🔥 *Limited time offer: Get 50% OFF on Real Vision Connect* https://rvtv.io/3UenXVY
🔥 *Download Raoul Pal's 5-year investing roadmap for free:* https://rvtv.io/41fVHWF
📣 *This episode is brought to you by Bitwise Asset Management*. Bitwise has been all-in on crypto since 2017 and has more than 20 crypto-based products to help investors get the necessary access. Bitwise manages the world’s largest crypto index fund, one of the top Bitcoin ETFs, and one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking solutions. Bitwise has over $10 billion in assets under management and over 100 people in the US and Europe to help manage everything from ETFs to private alpha strategies to SMAs for large investors.
👉 *Check out Bitwise at https://bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Real Vision mentioned them*. Carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto before investing
📣 Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for.
👉 Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.
About Real Vision™:
We arm you with the knowledge, tools, and network to succeed on your financial journey.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Website: https://www.realvision.com/join
Twitter: https://rvtv.io/twitter
Instagram: https://rvtv.io/instagram
Linkedin: https://rvtv.io/linkedin
👉 Join our Discord channel and meet like-minded people: discord.com/invite/kYQY2Nd45Y
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

