Crypto Trends in Focus: From Bitcoin's Rally to Ether-Futures ETFs

0:00Hey, everyone. Today's Real Vision Daily Briefing is sponsored by Crane Shares. Learn about their KRBN ETF at craneshares.com forward slash KRBN forward slash real vision. Now to the top analysis of today's markets. What's driving crypto prices higher? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. With me today is Noelle Ackerson, founder of Crypto Is Macro. You can find her newsletter on Substack. Hey, Noelle, how are you? Maggie, how are you? So good to be with you today. Yeah, it's great to have you back. And it's really a perfect day. It's been a very interesting Monday. We saw Treasury yields moving higher, the 10-year back over those 15-year highs, settling a little bit below that, but really under pressure all day, even though we had the government shutdown kicked, I'm not going to say resolved, they kicked the can again, as they do.

0:53But at least it wasn't, people didn't walk into that Monday morning, didn't seem to matter for Treasuries. That, in turn, hurt stocks for most of the day. The Dow's still down. The S &P managed to get that flack. NASDAQ bucked it all day. And in fact, we saw buying into the close. That just jumped from up about a third to up about six-tenths of a percent. So we saw some momentum here at the end. And the other thing bucking the trend for a bit now has been crypto. And we saw Bitcoin climbing above 28 ,000, holding on to gains of about 3%. So a lot for us to sort through. But just generally, what's top of mind for you?

1:31What do you make of this market action? It's feeling really, really choppy, Maggie. On the traditional sides, on the bonds, on the stocks, it's feeling choppy. I mean, we know that the US stock markets and European stock markets and Asian stock markets had one of the worst quarters that they've had in over a year. Alarm bells are starting to flash there. We saw today that a really good ISM figure didn't really hook the market very much, which again shows just how risk-off things are getting, despite the move in the NASDAQ. I think that could be some shuffling going on. It's feeling really choppy.

2:05And then in crypto, what you mentioned there, that was surprising. And again, to look at crypto bucking the trend against the traditional markets, this is very surprising and is, of course, getting all crypto watchers such as myself excited that maybe this is the change in sentiment that we've been waiting for. Yeah, and climbing out of the crypto winter, so to speak, right? So let's sort of unpack all of these, sort through all of these a little bit separately. You mentioned the ISM. Yeah, we saw that prices paid. Some of the numbers were ticking up, nothing too strong, and the prices paid looked good.

2:42But you're right, no real reaction to that. We have a jobs number coming on Friday. We were wondering whether we get it because of the government shutdown, but they're open, so we should get it. What is your outlook for the economy? What are you looking at here? Because this debate has had people running from one side to the other really all summer, kind of persisted through September. How are you feeling about the outlook here? I love that question because it really does shed a lot of light on the outlook for the markets around the world. How is the US economy going to perform over the next year or so?

3:17I'm relieved to see, Maggie, finally, I don't know if you've noticed this as well, but the insistence on the soft landing seems to be softening slightly. And that's coming as a huge relief. I've been saying for some time, we are going into a recession. The soft landing, that'd be very nice. I did a search last week. For all the times, a soft landing was mentioned in 2007, 2008. Janet Yellen, head of the Fed back then, was insisting that we were coming in for a soft landing. In 2007, an IMF saying the same thing, a Federal Reserve account saying the same thing. So the soft landing insistence that we, the consensus that we've been seeing for the past year is starting to fade in its importance, I think.

4:02And we're starting to get more diverse takes on just what this recession will look like. What I'm hearing is not so much, are we going to have a recession? It's like, what will it look like? And that says a lot about the market. The market is not pricing in yet a recession. The slump that we had last year was not pricing in the recession. That was a reaction to the interest rate increases. We haven't yet done that. And the coming correction that I'm expecting, that's going to be key for not just global stock markets and other risk assets, but also for crypto. So do you think we're going to see a severe recession?

4:36Is it going to be a sort of mild one? And how worried do we need to be about that market reaction? I think it's going to be a severe one because we have not yet begun to see the impact on employment. And that is where the pain comes. It's going to be, we could see some reaction from the Federal Reserve and from the fiscal side as well to mitigate the impact on people. We are coming into an election year next year and you don't really want to have people losing their jobs hand over fist in an election year, but there's not much that people are going to be able to do about it. We're seeing the consumers start to show cracks.

5:12Jane Fraser of Citi was just saying last week that they are seeing at some of their lower FICO score customers some strain. Bloomberg have estimated that outside of the top 20 % in terms of wealth, the lower 80 % have less cash on hand now than they did at the beginning of the pandemic. You have higher oil prices crowding out consumption. You have the end of the summer where you had your family trips and your blowout concerts. Well, that's drawing to a close now, too. And so the consumer is weaker. We're going to start to see this in the numbers. We saw whopping downward revisions to previous consumption figures as well.

5:53That's not even taking into account the Taylor Swift effect. The consumer is going to start impacting the earnings estimates, which is going to start impacting the stock market valuations, which in turn will feed in on itself and cause even more fear that a recession is around the corner just for the headline value. Yeah. And those headlines matter. They do. A long time ago, someone told me, we talk about the payroll number. You start getting that unemployment rate moving and they will lead with it every night on the news. So that is, that jobs component is so important. I'm laughing when you, or I'm smiling to myself when you were saying the Taylor Swift effect.

6:32I don't know of anyone who's, we have such a representation, by the way. We have people tuning in from all over the place. So thank you so much for all saying hello in the chat on the platform. And I'm hoping you can all find each other on the world that's spinning on the new platform where you can actually see where members are. I don't know if you guys can pull that up. It's so cool while we talk. But here in the States, everyone is so tired because Taylor Swift's been going to football games. There's a rumored romance. You all know what I'm talking about if you're living in the U.S. So she's everywhere.

7:03But that effect from her and Beyonce and their world tours was for real. I mean, the fact that they're both wrapping up those tours. Now, if everyone goes and watches it in the movie theaters because they both have films coming out now, maybe that'll help. But you're not going to get that halo effect for all those economies as they move through cities. I mean, it was extraordinary. And that is fading. So it's funny that we're talking about that as an economic indicator. But it's true. It says a lot, Maggie, about the consumption patterns. And again, we've been talking already quite a bit about the consumer, but the consumption patterns have changed.

7:38Ever since the pandemic, we are spending more on experiences than we are on things. People are not moving house nearly as much because they can't afford the mortgage rates. But that impacts significantly the expenditure on things. We're spending on experiences. I forget which country it was, Norway or Sweden, recently reported that Taylor Swift did boost the inflation of the country. And while the United States is much bigger and perhaps the effect is more diluted, it is that kind of a consumption pattern that we have seen. We also know, Maggie, that consumers tend to spend when they can right up until the end, right until they really can't, right up until their friends start losing their jobs, right up until it hits home.

8:22And I think that's what we're going to see here. And I think that hitting home is coming soon. I'm just Paul, Paul English wrote who's Taylor Swift. You're funny, Paul. You can't avoid her if you want to. And I'm thinking maybe you're a secret Swiftie. I'm sure we have Swifties in the group here as well. We lost Noelle's video. You froze anyway, Noelle, but we're going to keep going because you sound great. So we're going to we're going to see if we can get some bandwidth back. And it's not us. We just struggle with Skype. So sorry, Skype, but we do. So we're going to keep going. But I wanted to ask you before we dive in, we have some questions about crypto.

9:02A lot of people psyched we're going to hit on that because I think we've all been watching what's happening and sort of thinking if we're not in it already, we need to plug back in and really pay attention. But we keep seeing all of this action. And every time you open the paper, or read the news about strikes. So you potentially have unemployment weakening, but we've got at the same time workers sort of trying to lobby for higher wages. Do you think that's going to fade if the unemployment is going to crater, or do we have this effect where we're going into recession just at the time where we may see pressure, upward pressure continue on wages?

9:40Sure, we are going into recession as we are seeing upward pressure on wages, and the two aren't necessarily related. We can all agree that wage increases are needed because they have not been adjusted for inflation, and this does impact quality of life and spending power. What is astonishing is how political this has become. We've never before had a sitting president on a picket line saying that he supports their claim, their request for 40 percent wage increase. And, you know, if I were Jerome Powell, I'd be powering up my meditation app round about now and taking some anti-anxiety medication because this is not helping him in his fight for inflation.

10:22You do have the fiscal hand not cooperating with the monetary hand. And that is going to be an issue when we have inflation pick up again, just as the economy is turning down later on this year. Inflation is not necessarily going to pick up again, in my opinion, because wages are picking up. wages tend to be because inflation has been picking up, they're coming behind. But it certainly is going to impact the earnings revisions that I mentioned earlier. Corporates are going to have a harder time passing through the increases in their input costs. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners.

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12:08Yeah, there's a great stat, and I'm just saying this off the top of my mind, so don't quote me on this, but I encourage you to track it down. There was a great person I heard speaking recently talking about how much of that wage is the actual cost for auto workers, and it was much smaller than you might imagine. What they're worried about in the negotiations are really pensions, because that gets built in. The actual hourly cost, even though it sounds so huge, sounded like it was manageable. And that was super interesting. But that was in the context of whether they'll strike a deal or not. Of course, there are a lot of other issues that are harder to get over.

12:45So when we are looking at that adjustment, let's bring the technology part of it in, Noel, because we've been seeing this disconnect. Everyone was feeling at some point that technology was so overvalued, the magnificent seven. It was so narrow. They were so due for a pullback. They would be the ones to lead on the downside. While that may still happen, it hasn't really been the case in September. Yes, we've seen down days, but even in the last week or so, we seem to be seeing the NASDAQ sort of on its own while we see the Dow and S &P get hit. What's happening with that technology part of it? Can they withstand this higher rate environment or is it just sort of a little bit of dislocation right now?

13:29Right now, it's momentum. It's inertia because they have been doing so well. They're still doing money coming into the ETFs. It's still going primarily to the top companies. That's just simply how it works. But if you remember last week, Maggie, NVIDIA's offices in France were raided by the competition authorities. We're seeing the beginning of significant antitrust action against Amazon. And the prices are not taking into account the regulatory risk that lies ahead for a lot of the really big trips. We also have the deflation of the AI bubble, which is an inevitable part of the cycle that we have coming up.

14:05AI is going to have a significant impact on productivity, just not as much as what was priced in to some of those stocks. And I do believe that that impact will spread much more broadly than the market has been reflecting. So we have a correction coming up on the tech stocks. That's part of the risk-off moves that we're already starting to see. And again, watch the headlines for some regulatory risk ahead. We've been here before with different types of tech companies, and it can get really kind of slippery. It can. I mean, I remember way back in the day covering Microsoft when they were under scrutiny.

14:40And even if the end result is nothing, they get bogged down in court. And that's time spent not on the business. That's how it was explained to me years ago. And I think that there's there's that sounds very valid, especially when you're in a race against your competitors. So if you're you're going to be having to fend off the regulators, well worth pointing that out. And it's interesting, Noelle, not a lot of people are focused on that. So thank you for bringing that up. So tech's doing its thing still poised for a correction in your mind. And by the way, if you didn't get a chance to check out Dale, from a very technical point of view, he shared, I think fair to say, shared a lot of Noel's sentiment on that.

15:24And he specifically went through some technical charts for Amazon, Microsoft, and I'm trying to think what the other one was, Apple. So go check out some of his technicals and what to watch for if you're interested and hold any of those in your portfolio. So what's happening with Bitcoin? Bitcoin. So, I mean, we've seen price action, not just what's happening right now, but some people have been pointing out, given what's happening with the dollar, given what's happening with markets, they've kind of been feeling like it's been holding up OK. Is that a fair assessment? And what do you think is going on here?

16:00That's a totally fair assessment, Maggie, and so cool that you noticed that because we've been looking at Bitcoin as boring, hasn't been doing very much. But as you pointed out, it hasn't been doing much while the dollar has been going up. That is not really supposed to happen. Bitcoin is pretty inversely correlated to the dollar for a whole bunch of reasons, which I won't go into here. But there's been that support all along that we've seen. And the choppiness in some of the stock market indicators that you were mentioning just now, and Bitcoin held up pretty well. And we know that there is some correlation, positive correlation there.

16:37What has been going... I'll just throw one really interesting observation from the weekend move. I mean, if you look at crypto prices, you'll have noticed that last night there was a sharp jump up, probably some short squeeze or something like that. There's no clear catalyst that I could see. So it's generally often covering related. But what has happened many times before, it's happened. What happens usually afterwards is that it directs either quickly or slowly, but it generally reverts back to where it was before it had that short squeeze. That hasn't happened yet today for Bitcoin. It is starting to drift a little bit lower When I checked this afternoon, it was back below 28 ,000, but it's nowhere near where it was this time yesterday.

17:18Ether, on the other hand, is. So here, what I think we have, Maggie, is a reawakening of some macro interest in an asset that has nothing to do directly with interest rates, that has nothing at all to do with earnings revisions, and that could benefit from the deficit spending that we see coming, that we also know is going to be coming even more after the Stop Gap funding bill that was passed on Saturday. So I think that's what's being awoken here. And it's sort of recursive, Maggie. One of the barriers, and I think you and I have talked about this before, one of the barriers in the crypto market has been the lack of liquidity.

17:59Lack of liquidity, lack of volatility. The liquidity providers have left. Once we start to see signs of some macro interest creep back in, then that's going to tempt some of the liquidity providers back in, which will tempt more macro interest back in. And then I think, Maggie, I think we're off to the races. That doesn't mean it's not going to correct from here. There is a macro headwinds, definitely. We are not out of the woods, not even close. And there is still a relationship. I think if we get a big stock market correction, that will hurt crypto as well. But the sentiment is different now.

18:33And I think that's significant. Yeah, absolutely. And you have something else going on as well. So we had a few new ETH future ETFs come to market today. Ash talked about it on ProCrypto today, and this is what one of his guests had to say about it. Let's have a listen. The demand for the futures ETF is a little bit underwhelming. I think it doesn't come as a surprise because, as I said, we have another macro backdrop. Last time with the Bitcoin futures ETF, It was close to the highs. Now we are in a bottoming range. And also people, I think, are waiting for the spot ETFs, which are much more important.

19:15So that's, I think, what I see. So a little bit of reluctance. There's not a lot of things going on. Also, if you look at on-chain fundamentals, if you look at fees generated by Ethereum and other important coins and token. so I'm much more bullish for next year than this year. So you can see that entire show and all of our content on our platform. If you only watch us on YouTube and you are not a full-fledged member, scan the QR code or go to www.realvision.com and hop on a trial. You'll also jump the line and be able to use our amazing new platform, which we've been showing and we're going to continue to show throughout the week.

19:58So really good stuff. we were just talking about the world spinning. So if you want to see and chat with our great community, that's one of the things you need to do. So we hope you'll do that. So, um, and by the way, if you're a member and have not migrated over yet, go to your email. There are instructions on how to do that. Um, if you can't find the email or you're having trouble, Christopher, I saw that you are having trouble. Um, just email us and we'll have someone walk you through it or we'll have someone check on the team from the backend. Okay. So we need to get you all over. Um, so Noel, I think it was mirroring what you're saying, that there's macro interest.

20:35You kind of feel it, and everyone's waiting. That spot ETF seems to be the sort of one of the things that potentially will open the gate. Is that what everyone's waiting for, and are we going to get it? Yes and yes. It's not the only thing people are waiting for. Yes, I know. I don't know what's going on with my camera. Sorry. That's okay. I'm going crazy here. Yes and yes. It depends on the timing. Sorry, I was thrown by the camera thing there. We are going to get it. I have been saying we're going to get it before the end of this year. I may need to walk that back a bit because the latest round of applications have all been pushed back.

21:16It could still happen by the end of this year. The fact that they've been delayed does not mean that the SEC has to wait until the next deadlines, which come late in January, some in March. They don't need to wait until then. They can go at any time. And there's a certain amount of political pressure to do so. So it could still come at the end of the year. And why is this a big deal? Because it's a very easy wrapper for both retail and institutional, a much better product than the futures ETFs that we have out there. And it's going to spread awareness even further and just make Bitcoin part of the mainstream investing landscape.

21:51It is a big deal. It's a huge market. The United States is a huge market. There are other ETFs elsewhere that have done pretty well. So that's a sign of just how well it could do in the U.S. market. But again, it very much depends on the timing. If we are in freefall because of the macro implosions, then maybe it'll not do quite as well. But timing, it will be a very good development. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

22:26Yeah, by the way, there's somebody, one of our viewers on YouTube said, is everyone bearish? Sheesh, it seems if there's a sentiment meter, I've ever seen one. If that ain't a sentiment meter, then I've never seen one. Sorry, it's kind of jumbled. But not one bull, but Raoul out there. I just want to point out that a lot of the times, this is a matter of time frame. So Raoul is bullish, but he reminds us all the time that he has a very long perspective. Now, I know he's more bullish in the near term than some people. That is true. But some of the folks that we've been listening to, if you've been listening to them on Real vision, Dave, David H.

23:08It is that they are just wanting people to be aware of some short-term risks before they're willing to turn bearish, sorry, bullish. And so it's more of a sort of, this is their framework that they're explaining. We walked through this in the Academy. I just wanted to point that out. It's super important because I don't think people are necessarily, we've been trying to hammer this home, always bullish or always bearish, right? It just depends on what their timeframe is and how they feel about some of the risks out there and where they see the probabilities happening. So, and I think that's about right, Noelle, right?

23:44I wouldn't say you are a bear. I think you are just concerned about what's gonna happen through the end of this year and maybe into next. Talk to me about your timeframe a little bit. Is that correct? Timeframe is everything. And one of the reasons I'm short-term pessimistic is because I believe we need a correction to be able to grow again. It's almost like a reset. If we were to keep on growing from here, I would be very concerned because the valuations are not sustainable. We wouldn't really want to be in a market in which the business cycle no longer made sense, would we? So we sort of need this flushing out of some of the crazy valuations.

24:21We need to understand that interest rates do have an impact. In a way, we do need the stock market correction to reset expectations as well for inflation, for employment, and for the economy going forward, because it's very, very related. As you mentioned, as you pointed out earlier, Maggie, it's the headline impact. It's the seeing news about the stock market can make you feel good or bad, depending on which way the stock market is going. And that influences spending decisions, et cetera. So it's all very relevant. Longer term, I am very optimistic. I think technology is an incredible force for productivity.

24:56I'm very excited to see the progress being made on investigation of new types of energy sources. I think AI is going to be interesting, as I mentioned earlier. But these valuations are nuts. Interest rates are high. We need this to be over with. And the sooner we get the correction, the sooner it is over with. Great explanation. By the way, I don't know, Gabrielle, Brian's off today. Gabrielle and Nick, can you pull up our, can you screen share and show our platform and go to the Knowledge Center and just find out where Roger is? For any of you who want to kind of recap of this, who's bullish, who's bearish, why do people seem to have opposing views?