How Low Will We Go? | Trading the Markets: November 5, 2025

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0:42Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Trading the Markets with Chris Bullock, a.k.a. Blasto Plast. Remember, remember the 5th of November, which is today. And oh boy, we need a Trading the Markets episode based on what the markets are doing. So on today's show, we're going to be talking government shutdown. We're going to be talking liquidity. We're going to take a look at the Dixie, some liquidity heat maps. Look at what the ETFs have been doing as well. What Bitcoin needs to do to shift us from fear to greed. And of course, we'll be looking at a bunch of charts and taking your questions live.

1:23So if you have any questions, please drop them in the live chat on X or on the platform. We'll get to as many as we can. Now, before we get into it all, I do want to remind you all that the crypto gathering is coming. We are going to be having our annual crypto gathering on January 22nd, 2026. And right now we have an early bird special going on with tickets. So be sure to grab yours now before the prices go up. So head over to realvision.com forward slash crypto gathering for more details. Without further ado, Chris, how are you doing today? Doing very well, thank you. Happy to be here. Yeah, yeah.

2:08We're happy to be here. The markets, well, yesterday was quite a day. So it's timely that we're on right after what we saw yesterday. So Chris, why don't we dive right into it? What are we looking at? How are we going to go from fear to greed? Let's talk about it. Yeah, yesterday was definitely pretty ugly, for sure. I think really, in the end, this continues to be just a story about the government shutdown and about liquidity. I mean, that's really what's driving everything right now. You know, I mean, from the economic side of things to the technicals of the charts to all of the assets themselves.

2:42It's all just, we're all waiting for the government shutdown to end and the sort of liquidity pipes to get turned back on, basically. And I think we are seeing signs that, you know, positive signs that the worst of it might be over, at least. I'm generally cautiously optimistic. It's kind of funny with the charts. In a way, like, we'll definitely look at the charts and look at the technicals. But to a large degree, they don't really matter right now because, again, it's all just hinging on what's going on with the sort of economic side of things. But, of course, we'll look at them anyway, and we can at least see maybe what charts look the healthiest out of the bunch.

3:18And that's certainly useful. I think I wanted to start with the dollar index, the Dixie, because the dollar index and liquidity, which I keep on a combined chart here, The candles themselves are the dollar index and this yellow line is sort of this aggregated global M2 liquidity indicator. And we can see that it's been basically flat, if not even rolling over a little bit. Meanwhile, the dollar index has been creeping up. It's definitely, I would say, well and truly out of this downtrend and has reversed and is now in an uptrend. It's kind of right at a bit of a resistance level based on this previous peak here.

3:51And we can see some numbers stacking up here. These are DMARC indicators. We're at a six right now, and we know a nine is a bit the magic number here in terms of predicting a bearish reversal. But essentially, we're going to see the dollar tick up when liquidity is tight. And this makes total sense because basically, when liquidity is tight, that means the order books are thin, effectively. And so there's a lot more volatility in all asset classes because there's not enough liquidity to absorb all of the buying and selling action. And so when liquidity is low, that means volatility is high. And when volatility is high, that means people go, they flock to safe havens like the dollar that isn't going to be swinging wildly.

4:33So that's why we see the dollar going up corresponding to effectively liquidity going down. Not really a surprise at all. But at the same time, yes, this is a trend to be sure. But we know that as soon as we get an announcement or something happens with the government shutdown ending, it's not going to matter what these technicals say. Things are going to reverse. you know, for sure. Risk is going to be back on. Liquidity is going to be back up. As soon as liquidity ticks back up, all that money is going to come back out of the dollar and go back out into risk assets. So it's like, yes, this is important to look at in the moment, but also it doesn't matter, like I said, you know.

5:10So yeah, kind of that's generally the framework I'm looking at. We can kind of dig into some Bitcoin stuff and look at some other charts too, But I wanted to kind of start the show with that and sort of preface everything. So, yeah.

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6:26Why don't we take a look at Bitcoin? You know, I think that's probably a smart thing for us to do and kind of see what we're looking for. What are we looking for for a close to help us kind of regain that optimism that we once had? It seems waning these days. But I promise you, overall, the macro does look good. You know, Raul and Julie and a lot of other smart people think that we are, you know, shaping up to look OK. But Chris, why don't we dive into it and see what you're seeing? Yeah. So we have a couple of interesting developments with Bitcoin specifically. I wanted to start by looking at this liquidation heat map.

7:01And over the last, well, I guess week, week, really, we can see that it's just, you know, been been trending down basically and is effectively flushing out all of these long positions that, you know, Everybody kind of got a little bit ahead of themselves and were thinking, oh, we're getting ready to rip. And they put in all these long positions and market makers have essentially just crushed them all and liquidated them all. But now we have a big chunk of short positions that have piled up here. And now those will all get liquidated at around the sort of 111, 112, 113 range. And we can see to the downside, there's not really much else going on in terms of liquidity that these market makers can capture.

7:42So this, I guess, is a little bit bullish for me. This is, I guess, a good step in the right direction. Separately from that, let's look at the actual Bitcoin price. There's a few things I wanted to kind of point out here. Big wick to the downside on the weekly timeframe. And actually, one of the interesting things going on on the weekly timeframe, this is the same chart, just Bitcoin on the weekly. these sort of last, we can see these kind of large weekly cycles, basically, if you will. And the last few times, we've had a big flush wick down below this 50-week moving average. We have one right here just right now.

8:20Back in April, we had another one that resulted in basically a big flush down below this 50-week moving average. That was the low for that weekly cycle. And then again, back here in September of 2024, same thing, big flush down below this weekly moving average. And every time it's ripped out of there, pretty good. So I know it's only two data points, but still, it's like we're seeing sort of, I think, the end of a long weekly cycle. And it looks like we're sort of due for a bounce there, which is really good. What I want to see is for me to get bullish, for me to feel really good about what we're seeing in terms of this price action.

8:54I'd like to see a weekly close above this kind of 116 level, which is back here where this, this, um, this one, this wick basically peaked back here. This is going to tell me that, you know, we're sort of back on, we'll get back above this, the sideways cluster, the structure here. And, um, you know, that'll tell me that we're sort of back off to the races and we're in a new, a new larger weekly timeframe structure. And, uh, I'll feel good about that. If we get rejected here again at this 116 level and roll back over, not going to be a good look, I'll be honest. But again, it's all really going to be predicated on how quickly the government can get back up and running.

9:30I'd like to see us carry this momentum from the good price action that we're seeing today and be able to build on that momentum with some positive announcements. Otherwise, this positive momentum that we're seeing today with all these green charts right now, these green candles, that's going to quickly wane and die back out if we don't get some sort of economic boost to kind of fuel some continuation with this rally. Right now, it's more of just like a technical bounce based on just conditions being very oversold across the board. It's like, of course, we're going to see a little bit of a bounce because RSI is bottomed out.

10:01You're going to see algo traders just kind of start to reverse those just based on technical chart patterns. But that'll only get us so far. We really need the economics to kind of juice this thing and continue us upwards. So that's what we're waiting for in the moment. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So I want to take this question. I know we kind of talked about what we want to see from Bitcoin.

10:38But I want to take this question from Benedict Michel on the RV website here, kind of thinking about what that downside could look like if we do get rejected and maybe how low we could go for Bitcoin. So, hi, Chris. The mainstream media is talking about a major downturn in crypto and Bitcoin falling to at least 85 ,000. Probably, I hope, a contrarian indicator. Well, Benedict, for me, that's a buy signal from the media telling you that we're dumping. What are the charts, slow telling you about that possible downside, Chris. It's funny to say that because like maybe the mainstream media is saying that, but like none of the like, you know, real juicy macro experts that we follow on X, none of those people are saying anything like that.

11:26But I mean, let's look at, okay, what would, where is 85 ,000? Let's just kind of draw a line here and see what that would look like on the chart. And then we'll kind of get some technical insight on that.

11:40it's funny, that's kind of a funny level. It's sort of in no man's land a bit from a technical standpoint, just looking at like horizontal support and resistance levels. I don't know. I kind of feel like that's far-fetched. So what I'm seeing here, first I'm looking at this big cluster. Let me kind of draw this line here. So we've got a big cluster of sideways price action right kind of in here, you know, based on all this trading history here, based on this trading history here. This is going to be a really strong, I think, support level for it to get through. And the bottom side of this is even at 93 right here.

12:17If it does break down below that, sure, I guess 85. Although it's funny, I would first look at like this peak here. Well, that's at 86. I guess whatever, 85, 86, tomato, tomato, it doesn't matter. But sure, like the next cluster would be down here if it does lose this range because there's not really a lot of trading days in between, say, the bottom of this range and this next cluster down. And then even if you go back historically, there's really nothing. So all we have to go on from a chart technical perspective is just this trading history here and then this cluster here, and then that's it.

12:52So again, I would be really surprised. I'm honestly going to be surprised if we lose even this 50-week moving average at this point. But I guess if we do get rejected and roll back over, It's in the cards. To me, that's definitely not my base case at all. And I kind of am getting signs really that the, you know, that the market, I'm sorry, the government shutdown is likely, you know, it's working its way towards an end. I know, you know, Trump's been posting loudly to get it over with and to get things back up and running. I think another thing that was a positive sign that I want to touch on that's related to this is the ETF inflows.

13:34And so for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, October saw net inflows and pretty decent net inflows, in fact, for Bitcoin, like 3.4 billion, not its best month, but also definitely not its worst month either. And then for Ethereum, also not a negative month. So even though the prices themselves, the spot price for both Bitcoin and Ethereum closed in the red for the month of October, institutions were buying. Institutions were buying the dip effectively, which is telling us that they're the smart money. It's a bit of a bullish divergence, even you could call it. I think it's clear that they're not hung up on this false notion of a four-year cycle top right now.

14:15They're certainly not panic selling. We're not seeing institutions dumping their accounts. We're not seeing them get liquidated like, you know, on perp dexes like retail is, you know, they're quietly accumulating right now over the last month. So meanwhile, the rest of us were panicking. They were buying. I think that's a really good sign. I think that's a sign that, you know, this isn't likely to roll over too much more because there's clearly an institutional bid at around these levels. So again, also bolstering the idea of why this isn't my base case. So yeah, I mean, obviously we'll see what plays out, but I'm feeling generally, I guess, pretty cautiously optimistic right now.

14:52Well, that's good. And also, you're mentioning those ETF inflows being very positive. And also, kind of underscoring all of that, ETH quietly hit a stablecoin volume record of$2.8 trillion recently, while tokenized treasuries went up to$8.63 billion. And so that real world adoption is definitely coming. Like you said, the institutions are not shying away. So definitely some some positivity that we can we can take from it. So, Chris, I do want to before we kind of end here, I do want to talk about some charts at least. And I actually want to take this this one and, you know, take a comment from Chamber of X in our discord here on Pengu.

15:42So he says Pengu is stupid cheap right now. Now, if you had told me I'd have a chance to buy it 15 months ago, I would have thought you were crazy. Can't see this one going away. Probably one of the better risk versus reward memes quotes out there right now. Fundamental business that creates content continuously, always getting their names out there to normies. And eventually that's going to pay big dividends. So why don't we take a look at that Pengu chart here and see if Chamber of X is yanking our chain or if he has a point here. No, I think he's spot on. It's funny. I had called out this support level, maybe I think on the Monday show, based on this previous peak here.

16:25And then, you know, it bouncing as support back here. And it's funny. Yes, it kind of wicked. It technically closed below it yesterday, but it's back up above it now. Now, if you kind of look at it on a weekly timeframe, it's essentially just a wick down below, but it's holding support at this same level. So I agree. And we've got a DMARC 13 here on the daily, which I think we know is a good setup here too. So it's showing, it's definitely very oversold. It's sitting at a perfect buy level. I think that's a perfect support level. And I totally agree. And I do think we've talked about this numerous times and in previous shows, why we think Pengu is a good bet going forward.

17:04It's definitely unique amongst other meme coin classes or other meme coins rather. And it's got a lot going for it, like you said. So yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Well said, Chamber of X. And that's definitely one I think we should maybe look at for an opportunity of something that can definitely come out of this on a rocket ship once we turn for the better here in this market. So Chris, I want to kind of throw it to you. Anything we should think about kind of as we head into this weekend or, you know, before we see each other again on Monday? Well, like I said, it's all going to come down to, really, it's going to come down to the shutdown.

17:43And that goes for everything right now, you know. And so we're all waiting on that. And yeah, we can look at a few, like, I know on the Monday show, I identified some other support levels. It's funny, I went down through my charts this morning, and most of them kind of wicked down right at those same support levels that I identified. Let's kind of look at them real quick. We've got Ethereum. I was like, here was the horizontal level and then it also touched on the 50-week level too, kind of like Bitcoin.

18:19Solana basically wicked down to sort of the middle of this horizontal range that it's in, which is a nice bounce too. It's a bit in no man's land in terms of its structure and it's below its 50-week. But I think it's holding well in this. It's got a huge stretch of horizontal support here. And I think it's, I don't really see it breaking down below this. I mean, there's just so much here. So I think that looks good. SWE was another one also that, if I'm not mistaken, perfectly bounced off of its support level that I identified. Also DMARC 13 right here. So it's looking really good. B &B maybe was another one.

18:53B &B bounced perfectly off its 20-week moving average. So B &B actually, I think this is actually going to be, this could be a pretty good buy because like it's doing better than most. And it was a nice bounce off the 20 week off the bull market support band here, which most assets are well below. But this was a good solid reset for it. I mean, it was all the way up here at like almost 1400, you know, just a few weeks ago. And now it's sitting here at, you know, 963. So I'm looking at this one as a decent buy for, you know, the next whatever, three to six months. I really feel good about this one.

19:26So yeah, oh, and Hype was the last one I wanted to touch on. Hype 2 perfectly bounced off of, you know, WIC down below its support level that I'd identified and is well back above it now, cruising back up into its bull market support band again. Volume is still holding steady on it. And I think that this one is going to continue to outperform going forward as well. So that's what I'm seeing in terms of like good crypto asset setups. But like I said, right now in the short term, it's all going to come down to the stupid shutdown and, you know, the hose being turned back on, basically. Let's hope it happens soon.

20:00I do think the GOP, especially after, yeah, I'm in New York, so this might be a little closer because, you know, I'm just hearing about it all the time. But, you know, based off of the election yesterday and kind of the meltdown that they were having, I think the GOP is going to be a little pressured to make something happen sooner rather than later. So let's hope that actually happens. Yes. That's, I mean, that's absolutely part of it too. You know, I think the proverbial fire has been lit. Yes, absolutely. They need to. I mean, they need to, they need to curry the favor of the crypto community.

20:35Because right now we're not very happy with where our bags are at compared to what we were promised. So, right. And then also, you know, I just want to say, man, looking at this, this hype chart, I honestly, you know, if you were holding hype right now, Now, I wouldn't feel too like doom and gloom about it because, I mean, it's held up really well compared to the overall market. Look, it's still what? Above$40 and not too far off from its all-time high. So, I mean, I would feel if I were you guys and holding hype, I would feel very good about it. Well, absolutely. And you have to remember, too, with hype, like they are making crazy money in all of this.

21:12Even those big down days when everybody's getting liquidated, they're making tons of money in fees and they're just using that to buy back the tokens. And as an investor, that's exactly what you want. That is the perfect crypto asset to hold for that reason. You know, so yeah, exactly. Yeah. So I think, you know, just for me, at least my takeaway here is I'm going to go and maybe look into adding more Pengu and more hype. So that's where I'm going to be looking for some, if you needed a trade idea, I would look to those. And BNB also looks really good as well. So Chris. And B &B does the same thing.

21:49I mean, they buy back and burn the tokens with their fees generated as well. So absolutely the same reason why it's doing as well as it is. So, yeah. Well, there you have it, guys. Chris, it's been a pleasure again, as always. We'll see you on Monday for our live TA and Discord. So if you're not a RV Connect member, please go ahead and join us so you can get access to our live show, Discord, ask Chris some questions directly. We have a nice back and forth. It's a longer show. So we're able to do that. You can also get access to Chris's entry level crypto portfolio. And you also get access to Joe Bland's live show and Joe Bland's equity portfolio.

22:29So a lot going on for Connect members. If you're not a Connect member, go ahead and join us and see what it's all about there. You also, of course, get access to our Discord chat with a lot of alpha and ideas being thrown around. Until then, everyone, don't fuck this up. Have a great weekend, and we will see you all on Monday. Take care, everyone. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future.

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