Inflation Inbound? | Macro Mondays: May 4, 2026

0:00Andreas Steno Larsen:New week.

0:04Big moves. You ready?

0:30Andreas Steno Larsen:It's possible, but keep in mind that their predictions might be Sometimes may be good Sometimes may be shit

0:38Mikkel Rosenvold:Sometimes may be shit

0:46Andreas Steno Larsen:It's Macro Mondays, big picture Clear plays, stocks, bonds FX, crypto on the way Get context, strategy right now On your screen, Macro Mondays, level up your week, oh yeah.

1:06Mikkel Rosenvold:Hello out there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikkel Rosenwald and as usual I'm joined by my co-host Andreas. Welcome to the show Andreas.

1:17Andreas Steno Larsen:Thanks Mikkel.

1:18Mikkel Rosenvold:It's been a great weekend for me and for you Andreas it's been really really hot here in Copenhagen and we've got a red hot week as well to discuss and unwrap here in Macro Mondays. We're going to be talking about finally some movement in Hormuz, some actual news, some kinetic action, the status on the expected inflation wave, and then a bit of a look into the much debated AI bubble. Are we there? What did we learn from all the reports from last week? But before we get started, remember that this is our free show at Real Vision. We publish three articles at least every week on the ProTier and one on the AlphaTier as well.

1:57Mikkel Rosenvold:So you can catch that with a paid subscription to Real Vision. One of those reports include our portfolio update every Friday, where you get access to our macro portfolio with the ProTier. So very much recommend that. Before we get started with the show, let's also get past our usual little disclaimer here, because although our portfolio has been doing very, very well for the month of April here, Andreas, we have to remember people that our suggestions might be. it's maybe good, sometimes it's maybe shit. Absolutely. There we go, Andreas. It was quite a week last week. What was your main vibe, main takeaway?

2:37Mikkel Rosenvold:Jay Powell, one of the big Mac 7 reports, what filled up your mind over the weekend, Andreas? Now I managed to

2:47Andreas Steno Larsen:throw some soda at myself here. I have a good day here. You know, I think last week's highlight was was probably the Microsoft quarterly report for me. I was a little bit scared that we would see some hiccups related to their partnership with OpenAI, but they still report a growing backlog, so contractual backlog with OpenAI, roughly accounting for, say, between French's$300 billion. So it's a pretty big deal in many ways, But it's also very relevant for the whole discussion around whether we have an AI bubble or not, whether Microsoft is scared of that backlog or not. And for now, it seems like they're not writing this off.

3:41Andreas Steno Larsen:And I think that's very important. I looked at the three big hyperscaler quarterly reports and basically concluded that we're still accelerating. We're accelerating in terms of CapEx. We're accelerating even more in terms of the backlog, which is a very important point, that the backlog is actually growing faster than the CapEx. I think that's a very underreported fact during this whole buildout. And, well, Nasdaq is doing well. So for now, I think we can part the bubble discussion another while. You know, it may resurface. It will resurface, I'm pretty sure. But it will not fully resurface until we have an alteration of the trend within the credit space.

4:31Andreas Steno Larsen:And I don't see that despite the war ongoing in Iran yet.

4:36Mikkel Rosenvold:Very interesting, Andreas. And what stood out to you particularly? you just mentioned Microsoft here, but a lot of talk also about the meta ads. Is that enough to keep meta in the talk for these? I know you brought along this chart in your report on Friday as well. Yeah, I guess meta is a separate discussion in many ways.

5:01Andreas Steno Larsen:Meta also increased their guidance on CapEx, But in contrast to Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet, they don't really have a backlog that supports the kind of CapEx that they're undertaking. They're trying to paint the picture that the average price of their ads has increased due to AI. And I guess there is some logic to that, but I just don't think it passes an empirical test, to be honest. Because assuming that the ads were improved due to AI during the past quarter, you'd probably expect meta AI to be a relevant player in the consumer AI space, which they're not really. I mean, they're growing, but from an incredibly low base.

6:03Andreas Steno Larsen:So the last time I had a look at the number of minutes spent by consumers on various AI outlets, meta AI was basically relevant. so I think it's more storytelling than actual AI facts if you know what I mean by now and that's why I've remained unconvinced of the capex spent by Meta they're obviously trying to develop this super intelligence but it seems a lot less tangible what they're building for than what Microsoft is building for what Amazon is building for because they have an actual backlog that they can use to defend this with.

6:51Mikkel Rosenvold:What are the pitfalls for this AI wave, Andreas? Some people are talking about open AI. They have some issues with keeping up the growth of their platform. Or is it really interest rates that could topple this CapEx boom? I don't think that we'll see

7:11Andreas Steno Larsen:a reversal of the AI trend until central banks decide to pull the rock from under the credit cycle. It is very important for all CapEx cycles, whether the price of money is low or high. And for now, especially since inflation is growing, as we speak, more or less, while interest rates remain pretty anchored in the front end, The real interest rate is actually declining, especially when you look at it in the very front end of the curve. And that's not a bad scenario for AI, for example. So it was essentially what happened in year 2000 as well. It was what happened in 2008. We need central banks, and I say central banks here, across the globe to pull the rock from under the credit cycle via a higher price on money.

8:12Andreas Steno Larsen:Last week, both Bank of England and the European Central Bank basically kind of postponed the hiking talk. It's not that they're not admitting to the risk that they have to hike interest rates, say, in Q3 or thereabout. But spring is here, New York City is bustling, and I just finished a clean of my apartment this past weekend. And boy, did it feel great. You know what also feels great? One dashboard that gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter, no more mess, no more scattered logins. Just accounts, investments, property, and more, all in one place. Get your first year of Monarch for half off just$50 with promo code Real Vision.

8:56Andreas Steno Larsen:Indeed, the Monarch app has helped me visualize my cash flow and helps me see where my money's moving. Not only that, I'm able to view my investments from various camps and how they're stacking up against the S &P 500. But my favorite feature is the AI Weekly Recap that sends me alerts on spending spikes, net worth shifts, and even upcoming expenses. Trust me, your finances will finally feel clean when you join Monarch. Use Real Vision at Monarch.com to get your first half year off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at Marnart.com with code REALEVISION. They're also watching this straight-off Hormuz issue with a bit of patience now because it's a very obvious binary setup, right?

9:45Andreas Steno Larsen:And you would look like a fool as a central bank president if you hiked interest rates two days prior to a peace deal or something like that, right? so at least for now they're treating it with the patience that the straight of a moose issue deserves and I especially think that holds true for the Federal Reserve we obviously have a new incoming Fed chair ahead of the next meeting you know to sum up the Fed meeting last week Jay Powell basically said I'm not fucking leaving to phrase Jordan Belfort and he also kind of hinted that Kevin Walsh job will likely be pretty difficult from June and onwards.

10:26Andreas Steno Larsen:Yeah. We had this meeting as well.

10:29Mikkel Rosenvold:So this is the other meme that was my takeaway from last week, that we ain't cutting shit, bro. I mean, do we have an outlook of a cutting season? Or it's going to be a very, very tricky board for Kevin Walsh to navigate.

10:47Andreas Steno Larsen:I mean, you shouldn't cut interest rates right now, and they won't, in my opinion. The question is whether they'll just remain patient for a long time here to see what happens with the Strait of Amooz. That's probably the most likely outcome, also given that you have one part of the committee very aligned with Trump's administration and one part of the committee not aligned with it. So the very uniform, the very consensus-driven Fed that we saw under Jay Powell is one for the history books now. And I think Kevin Walsh will have a very difficult time finding common ground.

11:22Mikkel Rosenvold:Okay, Andreas, let's dive into Iran. We've already touched a little bit on it. And we've had a few weeks of essentially a deadlock. Both countries trying to outweigh one another. And then every Monday, we've usually gotten our dosage of hopium. And today was no exception. We actually got it last night, but still come for the Monday market open in the form of the Project Freedom. Apparently, the US is now willing to support commercial vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the Strait of Hormuz being officially closed by the Iranians. So let's begin maybe, Andreas. How did you gauge the market reaction from this?

12:04Mikkel Rosenvold:Are markets still in sort of a mode of apathy, or did you sense the hope that was the supposed conclusion from this?

12:15Andreas Steno Larsen:There was a little hope in futures overnight. We had a modestly positive risk asset development on the back of this announcement from Trump. And then I think it's roughly four hours ago, the Iranian state media suddenly announced that a US warship was hit by two missiles. And then we had a spike in oil of, I say,$4 or$5 a barrel until Axios reported, basically quoting a US official, that it was not true. then on top of it we've seen the United Arab Emirates lamenting an attack on a vessel I guess sailing under United Arab Emirati flag and by the time of speaking right now we're sitting live here a little bit past 10am Eastern it's actually not crystal clear to me whether we have a good or bad development in the straight, because the two counterparties of the conflict, they're delivering contrasting messages.

13:38Andreas Steno Larsen:But I'm of the view that it is a smart move to try and break the deadlock. So maybe let's focus on that, because right now we cannot, you know with any degree of conviction say that the the straight is open live but but i i think there is you know there's sequential progress again um if i'm allowed to use that phrase

14:04Mikkel Rosenvold:so a quick break in your regular programming if you're serious about your future grab my free report called prepare for 2030 i think you've got five years to make as much money as possible and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So Mikkel, what do you make of it? Will this break the deadlock in your opinion? It depends on the Iranian reaction. I think what Donald Trump is trying to do here is call the bluff or to smoke out the Iranians by saying, okay, you're blockading the strait. Let's see if you're really blockading the strait. Let's try and get some ships shipped through.

14:42Mikkel Rosenvold:And of course, trying to get US naval vessels through or US commercial vessels, they will probably be shooting in that. But third party, neutral country merchant vessels, the Iranians are supposed to stop them, to either board them or sink them or shoot at them. Are they really going to do that? Trump's now putting that to the test and trying to call their bluff. So he's essentially trying to get third party commercial vessels to run the blockade. by probably, we don't know the details of this, but probably by underwriting their insurance, guaranteeing for that, and providing some sort of token military support.

15:23Mikkel Rosenvold:He's not going to be escorting them. He's not going to be pulling destroyers up and say, okay, now we take 10 ships and a convoy and get you through. So it is very, very unclear what's happening. And I have to say, I'm still a little bit worried that this is just a dose of Monday hopium, as I mentioned, but at least there's some hope. I think this could be a very shrewd move, because it puts the pressure on Iran. If these ships actually try to run the blockade and Iran begins to either board them, I'm not really sure to what extent they could do that, but if they are firing at 10, 20 ships each day, that's something else.

15:56Mikkel Rosenvold:Now, I know people telling me on Twitter that, oh, Iran has been firing at ships for two months. Yes, that's true, but they haven't been firing at 10, 50, 100 ships per day. That's a whole different uptake and visual here. You already saw very, very strong remarks from UAE today on potential attacks on vessels. You might see even more of that if they begin attacking South African, Indonesian, Brazilian, Chinese vessels. That's a whole other visual if we're talking great numbers each day. Then you're beginning to build the image and the narrative of Iran is the aggressor here. Iran is the party disrupting the flow of trade.

16:37Andreas Steno Larsen:And, Michael, I noticed the truth from Trump, was it late yesterday, where he called this a humanitarian gesture? Exactly. It's, of course, an important part of the messaging here, and it is designed to make it difficult for Iran to interfere with it.

16:56Mikkel Rosenvold:Exactly. And this is also why I'm getting the feeling, just as I was with the counter-blockade of Iranian oil exports, This is not something Pete Hex has thought about over a beer. This is actually well thought through. It's been well coordinated with the U.S. military. They tweeted right away supporting this. They've been tweeting all day to show that this is coordinated. It was planned. Then we'll have to see how well executed it is. But this is something else. It's on a whole different level. And this gives me confidence that this could actually have some effect, could maybe push the Iranians to the negotiation table, which at the end of the day is the goal here.

17:35Mikkel Rosenvold:But let's see, Andres. I think we're allowed a little bit of hope today. It is Monday. It is Hope Day. And then let's see if that hope is squashed throughout the week as we are becoming used to.

17:47Andreas Steno Larsen:Can I say one thing about this, Mikkel? And I also see that we've brought along a few charts on it. this whole idea of labeling this a humanitarian gesture is i think first of all smart by by trump and his administration but it's also very telling since it is basically you know some of the poorest countries on earth that are suffering the most from this straight of the moose crisis currently. And I've lost count of the number of research papers, both from banks, but also from pretty serious financial media outlets telling me that we'll have a shortage of energy, to some extent food, etc., in the West this summer and into the second half of the year.

18:41Andreas Steno Larsen:I consider that utter nonsense. And The most recent piece of empirical evidence we had on something that looks just barely reminiscent of what's going on right now is the crisis of 2022. Probably the biggest nat gas crisis in history where a country like Germany basically lost access to all of its nat gas more or less overnight. did that lead to a shortage of net gas in germany well sure but not really because instead europe outbid pakistan bangladesh indonesia etc for the liquid natural gas that was floating around on see. So what's the moral of that little story? Well, the Western consumer is obviously in a better position to deal with a higher price of food or energy than the consumer in Bangladesh or in Pakistan or you name it, some of the surrounding countries using that same energy and same food supply.

20:02Andreas Steno Larsen:And what typically happens when there is a global shortage, which is correct, you know, there is a global shortage of some oil products, fertilizer, and therefore ultimately also food, is that flows will be redirected from EM countries to DM countries. I will, you know, bet whatever that we will not face food shortages in the West. It's not going to happen. will outbid countries poorer than ourselves, which is the sad but cynical truth.

20:38Mikkel Rosenvold:Yeah, and I mean, Andres, obviously, I mean, the global oil consumption is 100 million barrels per day. We're missing, let's say, 10 million barrels we're missing per day. Who's going to drop their consumption to meet that? The ones who are least able to pay. I mean, it's as simple as that. cynical, but it's as simple as that. If we were lacking 70 million barrels per day, then sure, we would have problems in Europe because US would probably be at the top of the pecking order, also because they're producing it themselves. But I mean, then Europe could be in trouble. But I mean, there is enough oil for Europe.

21:15Mikkel Rosenvold:It's just a matter of, do we want to pay what it takes to get it ahead of others? And the answer is obviously yes, especially at these rates. And we're seeing that. I mean, yeah, OK, gas prices are higher. People are still filling up their trucks. People are still flying around Europe. We may see some adjustment. We may see some adaptation of this. But in the broad scheme of things, no. So we might have an issue on jet fuel very, very specifically, but in the broad terms of things, especially when it comes to food, no. I agree with you completely, Andreas. This doesn't mean that this isn't an issue in EM countries.