Is Bitcoin on the Way Back to $100,000? | REKT Vision (January 16, 2025)

29:48Yes. Let me say it breaks my heart. It literally broke my heart when I saw the dates because the CryptoGathering has become one of the highlights of my year on the personal side. Just seeing so many friends that I've made through Real Vision. I was hanging out with the Real Vision team and Raoul and everybody. It's awesome. But I love seeing community members come together, like hang out in a fun place, in a warm place in the winter. And just, you know, it's really smart people just exchanging ideas. And it's just, I've learned a lot from a lot of the folks that I've met there at the crypto gatherings in Cayman, Vegas, Miami last year.

30:22So yeah, the CryptoPunks are having their Node Gallery or Node Exhibition opening in Palo Alto. CryptoPunks project that was created by Larvalabs back in 2017. It became like the de facto best NFT project. Also the highest market cap for 10 ,000 NFT projects. And the MoMA just added some punks to their permanent collection back in December. So they got acquired by a foundation started by a friend of all of us, Mickey Malka, called the Node Foundation. And they're opening their exhibits. So, you know, the company that I run, Nebitz, owns the IP to a collection also created by Larva Labs that came a few years later in 2021.

31:06and so we share providence and we're very very you know we're close to together and trying to like push this into the art world so we have an official event that weekend and that's why i won't be able to make it to to my everybody it's just i was very sad for a few days when i realized that dates conflicted because yeah it's a it's a great event even if you just go to social things again i think it's just having those conversations being people that are a lot of the value that you get yeah again we have ron last week and he he seemed genuinely upset that you weren't coming and also that he wasn't going for that as well.

31:37It's a great event and it's unfortunate because you can't come either. But we should talk a little bit about CryptoPunks because I think they are kind of the bellwether and then we'll go into the me bits. But everyone always looks at the Bitcoin versus CryptoPunk ratio. Right now, CryptoPunks are 95k and Bitcoin is essentially 95k. They're trading at the same level. they had been a bit of a shaky Q4 there. A lot of profit taking, well, loss taking, let's say, in some of the punks, which normally accelerates as people into tax season. And then a lot of loans, it seemed like, were due suddenly on a number of different platforms.

32:23Although I'd heard that that had kind of been cleaned up somewhat over the last couple of weeks. What's your feeling now on the Bitcoin versus CryptoPunk ratio for the next year? I was just looking through the... They were showing the speakers for the CryptoGather and I'm just like sitting here like, I wish I could be in two places at the same time. So my Punks versus Bitcoin, you know, it's really funny because obviously they're both bellwethers, as you mentioned. I've never really compared them too much. It's like such different assets, right? At Punks, there's 10 ,000. Obviously, Bitcoin is a little more than that.

33:04The access to Bitcoin is so easy, right? You can just buy ETF today. I think the few times that I came on the show last year, or even two years ago, I spent a lot of time talking about how ETFs were really changing the funnel for Bitcoin. We don't really have that for Punks. So even today, if you want to buy a Punk, it takes a little bit of work. Going to buy Ether, going and getting a wallet, and so on. So it's still very niche. But the fact that there's still kind of like six figures for the most part, I think it's a great signal. A lot of what Raul talked about with crypto art and all these new asset classes.

33:39And so, yeah, it feels like last year was a bad year for crypto. But, you know, we had Bitcoin still high five figures. We had Punks. There were 200K in the summer. They came down to your point about loans and liquidations and people thinking tax losses. but there's still like$95 ,000 for the punk, which I think is incredible. And I think it just really, it's a market telling folks like, hey, under this new ownership group with Node at the helm, obviously Mickey and Becky, they're running the show. They're really going to make, like I think the community is really going to continue building that direction.

34:17Like this are some of the best pieces of tokenized digital art, not just for what they represent, but because of the network that they, you know, that you become a part of when you buy a CryptoPunk. And if you look at, for example, the MoMA collection, right? I think CryptoPunks and one of the people that were involved in the acquisition told me they're like the best example of a performance piece by a large centralized group of people. That's what's great about Punks. It's like, you know, even though the team's there at Node, it's really the community that comes together. and works towards elevating punks.

34:55I was actually packing for the event. I'm getting old now. I think a week before now for some reason. Otherwise, my wife starts yelling at me. But I looked and I have punk t-shirts. I have punk hats. I have a punk jacket. I have punk sneakers. And then I realized punks have actually never done official merch. It's all stuff from the community. I think that really speaks a lot. And community as a word obviously got completely abused back in 21 and 22 during the bubble. But when you look at punks and the group of people that you join and kind of like held the open doors, I think it's quite valuable.

35:31I mean, we had Reid Hoffman buy a punk in Q4 of last year. Obviously, Mickey has been very successful, making great investments at Ribbit. I would not be surprised to hear more and more people from that sphere. This new exhibit is going to be permanently located in Palo Alto, a few blocks from Stanford, right in the heart of Silicon Valley, to see more and more people that make it in tech come into punks. And so, yeah, it's an amazing group of people. It's an amazing piece of art. And yeah, we love the punks and obviously love the meetups as well. yeah i think i think this whole vision of of a of a valuable community led by i mean i i like the yuga team but like it's a different sort of element when it's this rivet capital uh no foundation team because clearly they are they they're amazing investors they know everyone in tech they have that that aura about them that you want to be part of that club you know um and that's often what makes a a collectible long-term right that you have uh you want to be part of the group of people that own it so i think i think it's gonna be very interesting to see how this develops now it's they're really going to lean into this um i wouldn't say high class but just like uh you would want to be part of the club for sure uh i feel it like that i'm not going to this subliminal event you know what i mean and that there's a difference between that and let's say like a yuga event going back to me bits then what's been going on there we have we have our surf on occasionally we talk about rect a lot but like um i'd love to i think when we last spoke you were doing a range different things but i'd love to see what was going to stock up over the last uh for the last few months yeah so you know last year we acquired me bits in uh february and um we pretty much set out to experiment we think it was the collection was created by labor labs as well so to us are They're art.

37:35Mibits are art. That's fun and functional. So they're digital sculptures, all created in voxel forms. And there's 20 ,000 of them. So very diverse collection that we then said, okay, what can we do with Mibits that really helps us start elevating them to where they belong in the canon of digital art? And so, by the way, the website you're seeing right now is our temporary website. We're actually going to launch a whole new web experience at the end of the month that really allows people to familiarize themselves with all the traits and all the details that Matt and John from Larva Labs put into the collection.

38:11And that's what we're doing this year. We're focused on two main things. One, the fun part of MiBits, the ability that they exist in this digital world. We're going to be doing a lot of things on the other side, which is the Yuga Labs metaverse. Obviously, Yuga has been putting a lot of resources there and Roblox and all that stuff. They worked really well. It's just a matter of bringing in the people and it's a great place. And so MIVITS are a natural fit for that. And that's going to take care of the fun piece. We have a couple of soccer-inspired activations coming up. Obviously, a huge year for football around the world.

38:46And yeah, we'll be doing really, really fun things when it comes to that. Growing up in Mexico and collecting stuff around the World Cup was something that really left a really good memory. And so we want to replicate some of that, but in the digital space. I think I was saying, you know, earlier, like all the NFT communities or projects have become toy companies or want to become physical companies, which to me is like the opposite, right? Like we all came into crypto because we believe in digital asset ownership and what that unlocks. So to go back to like the comforts of the meat space, it's a little bit like, you know, going against the principles of why people came here.

39:24And so we're going to really push on the digital side this year. We did a bunch of physical stuff last year, but we really think digital is the future. And so we want to try to lead by example. Then on the art side, Meavits turned five years old in May of this year. So we're working with Matt and John from Barber Labs. They're actual advisors to us, strategic advisors. And we'll be doing something big in New York to celebrate that birthday and really just retell the story of Meavits. I think a lot of the time people see them as like, you know, punk tariffs or like this random project that got dropped and nobody really thinks about.

40:00Obviously, the market was going crazy at the time. So we're going back and really just reframing that narrative. Matt and John actually spent years building this collection. And luckily, they're very good and very disciplined at documenting everything they do. So we have a lot of info, renders, like lists, a lot of things that is going to allow us to come back into the world and be like, hey, listen, this is like a masterpiece of 20 ,000 generative sculptures. And here's the process and this is why. So those are the two open fronts that we have. And we're pretty excited about this year. And then just obviously cheering for everybody else, the entities.

40:38I think growing the pie overall is good, good, good. And especially in a market that shrunk so much for the last five years. So definitely wishing the best to all the other teams and all the other collectors that are in the space and helping push the space forward. People have been saying that that event, the Palo Alto event, could be the turning point back for NFTs. I don't know. It does feel like the market is looking for stuff right now. On-chain activity has gone up a lot, even over the last week. And it's not been great narratives, let me put it that way. Like it's kind of a rehash of an AI or like a creator coin narrative, which I think we've kind of already seen.

41:23But people are looking for things to kind of get behind. And if there's a time again for NFTs this year, which I think we had a mixed year last year. But yeah, this would kind of be it again to kind of help form a base to kind of push from. I think we have Moonbirds are doing a coin soon and they've been trying to push a lot of different things. And then there's Rekt and there's Pudgy Penguins and there's yourselves all like pushing different sort of activations on different sort of sides. So I see so much more creative and fun stuff from the NFT communities than I see from the meme coin communities, let me put it that way.

42:01Like I really enjoy seeing teams like yourself or OSF or Spencer or Luca coming in and trying to do interesting things with IP, trying to build communities. It's just way more interesting to me how they're being run. And even at the punk stuff, it's like building this sort of ultra-exclusive community that you kind of want to be part of even more. You don't see that anywhere else in crypto, really. Yeah, and I was there a MemeCoin guy. And I think it obviously was pretty profitable for a lot of people. That's awesome. For me, like why I came to crypto was because of that community, that group aspect that NFTs provided.

42:45It's lucky that, you know, I stumbled onto punks. But I feel like a lot of other people had stumbled into things that also did very well for themselves. I mean, obviously you guys had a really good run with apes, for example. And, you know, it's like NFTs 3.0 going forward. You know, while we're going digital, I do like seeing, you know, obviously the red drink stuff is amazing. that check out into getting tokens at point of sale is an incredible innovation that I think should be talked about so much more often. All these other big traditional crypto brands that might not have an NFT component that talk about onboarding the masses.

43:23This is like, that's right there. And then some of the collaborations, I think we've been some really smart licensing place from folks like Pudgy, right? Where they have the capital to go out and license IP I think they just announced Manchester City. And so, yeah, they're able to like, hey, you know, borrow that, you know, fan base and put, you know, their token in front of it, which is good. And it's kind of like the more traditional sense of business. Like obviously, you know, Formula One cars, rather like all sponsorships that you see the logos on them. And so little things like that, to your point, we're not only seeing like innovation, but innovation a whole.

44:04in a bunch of different ways, right? So you have Yuga with like Metaverse and have a physical club they're building in Miami, which is the original premise of it. They have a partnership with Amazon. They're actually having another NFT sales for other side on Amazon. I think it's next week. Again, imagine like five years ago saying, oh yeah, we're going to sell NFTs through Amazon. People would have lost their mind. You have Pudgy doing licensing deals and like, you know, getting Carverers and Man City to like do merch with them. I think that's super smart obviously rec I think again the checkout stuff for me is like one of the best things I've seen in the last five years I'm trying digital others Spencer's like launching like a full kind of like factory things I'll be making toys for others and cards for others so not only are you seeing innovation but it's like a bunch of different shots it's like almost like we're all playing different sports now we're all playing like you know tennis in 21 now there's tennis now there's football now there's basketball now there's baseball and that also just expands the surface area if people want to come in and really be part of different communities.

45:07And it's not just the same kind of playbook with a different cartoon character on top. Yeah, they definitely feel like businesses now, which are a really good way of putting it, just expanding the surface of what you can imagine crypto doing. And I think that's why I think it's the innovative bit that I think is missing from so many other bits of crypto. I think the NFT space, at least some businesses, really pushed the envelope. But there hasn't, I mean, in terms of narratives, other than that this week, the only real one has been the privacy narrative. Are you a privacy coin guy at all? I'm sure at Fireblocks, those sort of coins caused you a lot of issues for many years.

45:46But Zcash? So, you know, it's funny because my biggest issue with crypto has always been the lack of privacy from the very beginning. Yeah. And so, at the start, I was like, well, if anybody can see your transactions, like it's kind of like it could fall into the wrong things but this whole ccash narrative and you see the people that are talking about it and like the way they're talking about it come on man like ccash been around for a long time like this is obviously one of those you know group mindset traits um and that's why like i usually just step back because that's like you know i'm not in those types of groups to know when to sell.

46:28But you've had these types of runs on these particular coins multiple times over the last 10 years. So to me, it's more like, you know, you're really worried about Ccash. I mean, your privacy, for example, obviously, an incredible builder, very successful, like Mert. If you're really into privacy, then stop building on Solana and go and fully build on Ccash. Not the case. So sometimes actions speak a little bit louder than work. And, you know, so I think privacy is something that crypto overall needs to solve eventually. But I don't think that these old coins that have been around for 10 years and have seen similar cycles play out are the actual technical solution.

47:11But yeah, congrats to everybody that's making money off the narrative. One new narrative that I saw, I think it was Farak that posted this morning about it, was AI coins. I haven't even taken a look at which ones people are talking about. It's loose, man. I have a feeling it's like last time around, it's just, you know, yeah. There's a coin where like Claude Code is helping a tomato tree grow or something like this. They create a coin around it. Like it's not, we're not. All right, so I shouldn't go spend time on that. But yeah, I mean, that's the only other thing that I have slightly begun to see.

47:53Obviously, I think we're definitely going to get a mindset change on crypto Twitter now that they've banned Kaito and all that slop. I thought Kaito itself was slop, but the incentivized hosting or yapping. So all those people are going to have something, a lot of free time and probably just some leftover capital. They're going to have to find something to do, which is kind of how we ended up with that mean run back two years ago. all the NFT people that kind of like have to move on to bigger and better things or just different things. So I'd definitely be keeping an eye to see like what that translates into.

48:33But again, like, you know, I'm working 20-hour days and just focused on meetings and like I'm training for like an endurance race. So I wish I had more hours a day. I don't know how you do it, man. You're running like three companies, hosting the stream, trading. It's a lot, man. Definitely, definitely. I mean, I think that's just natural. Like, coming from Tradfire, you're just kind of used to working hard, I feel like. But it's been a lot recently. That's for certain. But it keeps you, you know, I'm young. It keeps me young. It keeps me young to do all that. I was just a sales guy, so I just had to look handsome and smile, and that was it.

49:12Yeah, no. I'm used to having to juggle a lot of different things from a trading background. like it's it's just kind of it's kind of inbuilt to to do that sort of stuff but yeah there isn't much else right now like it was there was maybe at the start of this week when big chrome was heading back towards 100k if that like and there were a few narratives that suddenly felt like oh every altcoin is going to go but the only real ones that have held on to their gains are kind of the mages and xmr monero on the privacy angle other than that and maybe pump fun that that's had a good week but other than that it's been a bit it's been a bit mixed i i'll repeat it again though i am bullish uh at the moment i do think i do think i'm gonna have a decent uh next week well i'll tell you what i'll i'll ask the audience people are going to the crypto gathering please do talk about what you guys are like looking forward in this year and then let us know because i won't be there and i think it's again plugging it shamelessly plug it because i do think it's a great event, by the way.

50:12But I think that's the kind of stuff that you are all tuned in for. Finding those hype minds and the ability to share ideas. Yeah, I mean, you and I worked at Bargers. I wish we had stayed closer back in 21 and I would have traded you on H a little bit more. But everybody that's going to the crypto gathering, please, please, I would love to hear what the top three themes are. Because while there's panels and stuff um well at least there was this year i don't know what the formats are this year but it was those conversations you know uh afterwards the social events that to me really added um a ton of value to to be in there and and i think it's super important people take advantage of those opportunities i completely agree we should maybe come to go to some of the questions now uh there are a few and i think we'll do it just before time so ira on x ira uh from 2027 europe will ban anonymous wallets and privacy coins what could the impact be um i think europe is is kind of gone down the route it's too far gone now uh i i think crypto in europe is going to feel quite different to crypto in other places over the next few years So I think expect it to be a bit more like how it is in some of the Asian countries where majority of stuff has to happen on exchanges.

51:40And maybe there's integrations to DeFi via exchanges, but it's going to be a bit more like having a bank account, I think, than having self-custody. So I think just prepare for that sort of a world, if I'm honest. I think it is coming in 2027 and onwards. Do you have any strong view on that? I guess you're the European. I agree. I feel like, you know, again, making some trade-offs between protection, regulation, and then all that stuff. So good luck to you guys over there. But yeah, I agree with you. I think innovation continues to get stifled in Europe. And obviously, crypto is a big part of that.

52:23Okay, next one. Bobby on Real Vision. if the markets were to go up what coins or narratives other than ETH do you think would benefit most from it in a three to six month time horizon?

52:37Difficult to say right now. Because it depends on why, right? Like why is the market going up? Is it because stability or is it because like, you know, that's like, you know, Powell does step down and they go and cut 50 base points in the first, like the next thing. Like, I feel like it's Yeah, I don't know. What are you going to say? It really depends. Right now, the hottest narratives of what we just said, it's L1s plus, or at least mages, let's say, plus privacy, and then little bits of DeFi feel strong. I don't know if this Clarity Act failing is good or bad for DeFi. You can kind of look at it both ways, but maybe we see a world where they're allowed to do things and revenues for things like Hyperliquid continue to go higher.

53:31I think there's been a bit of a shot across the bow against Hyperliquid over the last few months with like competitors and it's actually come out relatively well in terms of market share. So I like that one. I like, obviously we've spoken about some of the NFT coins. Obviously I'm involved with Rex. So I think that's an interesting one there from a coin perspective. The L1s have been much more mixed on recently, but I like ETH's story, if I'm honest. ETH is my favorite story out of the L1s. And then Bitcoin, I think, would be more of a narrative around gold going higher and it's like a catch-up trade.

54:09In the privacy coins, I prefer Monero over Zcash. Just from a setup, like you just said, I feel like Zcash just feels a bit too coordinated for my liking. And then BNB, maybe. I think BNB is an interesting one because it kind of melds a L1 with a platform. And I can only really see Binance as an entity growing over the next few years. So I think I'd like that one. I mean, do you really buy altcoins at all, Zajito? Altcoins are just extraction vehicles, in my opinion. And so, yeah, altcoins are great if you can buy them before the public and then sell them. Other than that, I mean, and I don't mean like all people are doing crime.

55:01There's some of that. But if you look at like Uniswap and Aave, I mean, these are DeFi protocols that are market leaders, high deposit bases and a lot of the banks, just really, you know, like the sector themselves. And the tokens just are one way only. You have like little periods of excitement. But they're massively down. It will continue to be down. Because if you actually look at the way those businesses get funded, it is through selling those tokens as time goes by. And so, yeah, it's quite difficult for me to get comfortable with something that cannot... That has a natural seller, a very large natural seller.

55:47And unless they're able to really do something extremely different, like the narrative side, versus just you're going to have a... Everybody gives the EF shit about selling E because it's public. But every other... Anything that has a token, once the lockup expires, Even before that, they find ways to sell it. That's what funds everything. And so, yeah, I'm not going to be that ex-liquidity for the lucky ones that have the tokens before I do. So, again, I'm not really a trader. Obviously, there's trading setups across all of them and they're really good. But I think to answer your question, no, I don't.

56:33and the few things that I've held on to that I've actually received as airdrops have just been a mess because I have owed taxes on really high valuations when they launched and then 10 months later, they're absolute dust. So I'd rather just... If I'm going to buy something that potentially is ulti, it's just JPEGs. Yeah. Okay. Let me have a look. are we saturating our third rules our third of rules on YouTube says are we saturating our own market exhausting a limited user base means NFTs have rinsed a lot of liquidity for the community how do these projects build long-term value but I think we've just spoken about how I think I see a lot more of that happening in the NFT space than I do in the coin space there was something the other day which is like the number of coins released or that have failed CoinGecko put out a thing and it was like 2 ,000 in 2021 and something like 10 million in 2025.

57:40Obviously, that has caused massive dilution in the coin space. That doesn't necessarily mean that you can't find winners, but I would completely agree. That kind of goes to what Sergito's point is. Altcoins as an asset class have become a lot more difficult when there's millions versus 2 ,000 when I kind of came into crypto. So I would agree with you. That doesn't necessarily mean that you can't see a lot of value in the teams that are actually building the right stuff. So I think we're seeing that with NFTs, some things in meme coins, but it's mainly in NFTs that see that. Yeah, for NFTs, I think, you know, there's still the question of how does the NFT accrue value.

58:29I think there's two answers to that. And I don't think most NFTs have this, right? So there's the new strategy model we talked about last time in the fall, where some of the teams like GBC and Chimpers are using the royalties from the trading to kind of like spin the flywheel and like align volumes and levels with our community. And then I would just throw our hat, our name in the hat at Meetco, we own 870 MiBits. So we're fully aligned for the long-term value of MiBits themselves. But overall, for the industry, it is a problem that the traditional way of generating revenue, which is royalties, is gone.

59:10And so we have this weird dilemma because somebody buys, for example, a MiBit. In secondary, there's marketplaces, but there's no royalties. And they pay$1 ,500 to$1 ,000 for a MiBit. They don't pay anything to us, to the company. but then now they have an expectation of value or something. They're expecting something from the company. So it does become a little bit of an interesting dance that teams have to do. And I think that's why it's super cool that instead of trying to go for one specific solution, we're seeing so many different teams try all of the different routes. So I would say definitely try to find the one that vibes more with what you think the future looks like and then go with that.

59:59And I think those at the end of the day are probably going to be the winners individually. So hopefully it's art and we're doing our job well. And maybe it's our next two punks in the moment a few years. I agree. Look, I increasingly think that the best trades in crypto are around the things built on crypto. I think we're in that sort of world where it's the apps or communities that are built on top of the technology. I think that's where you're going to have the most parabolic gains from here. And I still think that that is going to coalesce around some of these sort of NFT communities or it's going to coalesce around very organized kind of DeFi protocols or let's say DAP teams that I think are going to come out with exciting products.

1:00:47So I think there is a lot of value in there. You've just got to look for it. Sri on the RV website, if someone wants to get an NFT to learn, have fun and meet people, what is a good starting point? So G2, I'm just going to throw that one straight to you. What's a good starting point? I think it really depends on your budget. I wouldn't spend, even if you have a lot of money to spend on one, I wouldn't spend more than 50 bucks on one. just to get started or learn. And then, you know, it's kind of like if you're getting started and like, you know, you want to become a football fan. And you're like, hey, I want to cheer for a team.

1:01:27Which one should I cheer for? You probably want to watch a few games. You probably have a chance to go to a few stadiums to see which community, which fan base you vibe the most with. And then you can make a pick. I think for NFT is the same way. So you'll find that the NFT community is extremely, for the most part, friendly and open to onboarding new people. And so I think art's a good place to start. There's a lot of very inexpensive art. And this is like the 6529 memes where Mimits has a drop today, for example. Really good place to start and just talking to others and really just learning that way first before like really committing any type of capital.

1:02:06I think that applies for crypto overall too. Like we know which coin should I buy. Like definitely, you know, all the resources are free. go out there and like develop a view and then ask for some help, ask some questions and then move on to the next step, which is acquiring it. Yeah, I agree. I think you can lose a lot of money if you decide, oh, I'm just going to splurge. I think you can take your time. With NFCs, it's kind of easy because there's only really a handful of teams that are still like really shipping amazing things. They're expensive, right? If you think about the top 25 projects, the lowest floor is probably like a point, call it a tweet, like World of Women.

1:02:49It's like a point tweet floor. That's still$700. That's a ton of money. There are NFT communities on A-chain that are a lot less expensive to join. Yeah, you could do that. You could go down the different chain route. But yeah, you'll just, I think, get used to the technology if you're looking through that. I would say that being close to the Lava Labs originals is a good point. Art Blocks has been a good community to kind of join in. You could always get a rec guy if you're so inclined. There's sub-communities that are still going, but those are ones I really enjoy. Okay, that was it for all the questions.

1:03:32We ran over slightly. Sorry, guys. anyway I will see a lot of you next week really looking forward to it again Sergito pleasure always having you I'm sorry I'm not seeing you next week I have a great time in California and we will see you again I guess in like a month or something and you can tell us all about it sounds good thank you Mando alright bye guys

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