Is Bitcoin Primed for $80,000 Next?

25:22And that is a really meaningful impact when we're saying the main thing that matters in our economy is attention. A lot of attention going there. I think there will be a convergence. I think a lot of that will be how do you take the ability to bring things there and come back. But yeah, this is a good example. You're pulling up a tweet that I had kind of the other day, which is like, one of the funny things about running a company, and this is sort of like a, I think a very interesting part of this was, you know, there are certain projects where that are in this kind of weird area right now. So about six months ago, we were talking to an animation studio about doing animated stuff with Moonbirds IP.

25:58You know, I think it was something like$20 ,000 an episode, like these kind of things right and looking i'm like okay ai what they make is is unequivocally six months ago better than what ai can make today but like how long will that be true for right and the answer was about six months like it took us about six months for ai to get to a point where like we internally can produce with one person and you know maybe a hundred bucks of credits like a better animated thing than they can produce with the$20 ,000 and hand drawing and all this kind of stuff, right? But there's sort of like two very fun, incredible shifts about that.

26:35One is like the, I'm very excited to roll out what we've been making with this because it's like this really cool thing and we get to do it and it's cheaper and we can move it faster. And there's all these cool... The other thing, however, is this like six month paralysis, right? I feel a lot of this when talking to people about software right now. It is so hard to feel like to justify as a CEO investing in any sort of software development right now, right? Just because like, and there's tons of software development that like AI cannot do right now, should not do right now. You can't like, you can't just fire a CTO and use AI and just vibe code everything.

27:13Like, like it's just not secure enough today, but like six months and I mean, like, like it's just going to happen where you don't need to do that. It's like, okay, I could spend a million dollars this year investing in software development that by the time it's done, I could have spent 20 grand on credits to just click a button and it does, right? And it's so hard to feel like it's justified ever investing in software development right now, just because it's getting cheaper and cheaper as a function of time. And it's getting dumber and dumber. Like you don't need like right now, it's getting less and less so.

27:47But right now, to really use and deploy a production good product from AI, you kind of have to have some knowledge of software, some knowledge of coding, these kind of things. It is rapidly becoming where you don't even need that, right? You don't even really need to check its work or you can use it to check its work. I was talking to a friend of mine who does a lot of cybersecurity in the crypto space, right? And I think he, what I think he was saying that really stuck with me was this very fundamental shift for like to, to, to swarm test a website, like, you know, six months ago, you had to kind of know how swarm testing worked, right?

28:27In order to prompt it in a way where it could do the thing. Today, you can type into Claude, swarm test my website, and you don't need to even know how, what that means for it to just do it, right? And so like, you've gone from, hey, this is a tool where people who knew how it worked could utilize to do it faster, better, cheaper, to like, you don't even really need to know how this works. And it's just going to do it, right? And like, you know, that is a really, really fundamental shift where it's like a tool that makes experts 100 more productive is what it was, what it's becoming is a tool where you don't need an expert.

28:58And like, that is a very fundamental shift. And so I think, well, I think like, one of the things that I'm very curious is like, this cadre of people and companies that have spent so much time on AI, like investing in learning. There is a world where in six to 12 months, when it gets to that point, those people ship incredible stuff and they're way far ahead, right? There is also a world where maybe it doesn't quite get there and they've spun their wheels for quite a while. And there's actually this vacuum of space that you can fill in the interim. One of the things that I believe to me being contrarian take is this is the best time ever to be shipping anything because so many people are distracted, right?

29:35And the other thing is like, I am very not convinced that what you've learned about AI two months ago is valuable at all to how do you interact with it in three months, right? Like one of the most fundamental shifts that we've seen recently is you went from the main skill with AI is prompting. The main skill with AI is going and having a conversation back and forth to then suddenly, well, now AI is on all the time and it's in Egypt, right? And your main skill is somewhat prompting, but it's really conversational. It's really, how do you think about optimizing this agent's time? Like, does it spin out sub-agents?

30:07Does it do all these kinds of things, right? And like, those are pretty unrelated pieces of information, right? Like even how do you get like image generation to work a month ago, completely different than today, right? You know, a big thing that I think about this was Instagram. Like I, when I was getting into marketing for the first time was really, you know, 2014 to 16, was really into Instagram marketing. When I talked to people, I was really good at Instagram marketing 2014, 2016. When I talk to the people who today are really good at Instagram marketing, I have no idea what they're talking about.

30:39Nothing that we did back then has anything to do with what they do today because the algorithms have changed, tastes have changed. It's just completely a different landscape, right? And the beauty of those kinds of things is why you see in most companies, you hire young people to do digital marketing is because 50 years of experience in digital marketing is actually probably a bad thing because it changes so quickly, right? And I think that you'll see this too with AI where it's like, actually like, there is some value to being on the bleeding edge, to being on the adoption curve, but there's also some value to like not being stuck in your ways from when the tech wasn't really that good and now that it's gotten better, right?

31:11And so like, we're so close to being able to ship entire companies, entire products, run them with AI. I mean, we're probably there already if you can figure it out. But like, really the scary thing is like, not the like, we can do it if you really understand it. It's the like, you can do it if you understand exactly nothing. Like that's the thing where it gets like really big. Yeah, that's pretty powerful, honestly. And I want to share a little bit of a story because I don't, I've never really coded in my life. I'm not a developer or anything, but I actually, I built something with AI, with one of my agents that I would never have been able to build, you know, without it, right?

31:48I built a member call tracker, you know, that has an SQL-like database, a Python listener script that runs as a Mac OS launch agent in the background, pulling APIs from like a whole bunch of financial data. And basically what it does is it reads our members' messages in real time and identifies whether they've made a call on buying a coin or not, and then timestamps that in real time at the price that they set it. And then now we're keeping a running history of members' success rates. And now, you know, you can see like, hey, who is the best trader in this community, when he speaks, I want to listen type of thing, but it's backed by data.

32:25But that's something someone like me would have never been able to build even six months ago with AI to now I just built this within a day. So I think that power is just incredible. Yeah, no, absolutely. But when you built it within a day, I'm sure you filled with it a bit. It wasn't quite right. You did all these. Exactly, yeah. It took hours and there were multiple iterations on top of it, right? Exactly, right? But like, the thing that I will with 100 % confidence tell you is that six months from now, it will take fewer hours than it took that day, right? Like, it will and everything is about approaching a limit, right?

32:59And so as this technology approaches the limit, the limit, right, must be that like, okay, there's sort of you can consider two things as the limit, right? The limit is, you type in like, I what literally what you just said of what it does, you type that in, and it exactly is perfect, right? But even further, the limit is you didn't even need to tell it. It just did that. The limit of input is none. You've given it none input and it just does it. That is clearly the limit that we're approaching as the technology grows. It's not clear what the ramifications of that are. There's a meme going around right now, which is like, oh, when everyone's developing an app, who's going to be the users?

33:38right and so like truly like this like like the barrier to software development being low it's like it's very interesting it's not obvious what the outcome of that is right it's a good point yeah how many dashboards do we really need well it's like it's like kind of ironic in the case of like let's talk about trading for example right one of the more obvious things like okay you can make trading bots right but like it's not like every trading bot can be good like it's actually pretty defined right like 50 % of trading bots can make money 50 % lose right like like like we've gone from pvp you as a trader to pvp your trading bots and like it's almost like it's almost a full circle thing right like it's almost the same thing it's almost like nothing's changed uh it reminds me of that article that came out recently that i read on decrypt where it was uh like they put up a bunch of bots against humans with sports betting and the humans just destroyed the bots uh it was really really fascinating stuff so it's like the bot they're not there just yet right but to your point i don't know in six months can they have that reasoning where they can identify like oh so and so is injured and so and so's backup has like you know this success rate, right?

34:57Okay, but think about, no, but this is a great example. Think about the progress of this, right? Humans are beating computers right now, right? Okay, now there's only two additional outcomes that can happen. Either computers get exactly as good as humans, in which case it's indistinguishable, which means everything was just a coin flip, or computers get better than humans. But actually, computers get better than humans is basically indistinguishable from humans are the same as computers, because then humans will just use computers to do their sports betting, right? And so, like, humans are, it's all human versus human, becomes it's all bot versus bot.

35:27Like there's really, it should end up in one of the extremes. It's obviously going to be it's all bot versus bot, right? Like in chess, like there's a long period of time. Deep Blue came out, right? Kasparov missed Checkmate and won against Deep Blue. But now it's not even close. Like Stockfish is better than Matt Carlson, is better than Gukesh, is better than ever. Like chess computers now are like way better than any human. And it's like not even close, right? And the only interesting thing is like playing chess computers against other chess computers. Now, one of the things that became very interesting about that is the average chess player, since computers have gotten better than humans, have gotten a lot better because they get to see, learn from the computers in a really interesting way, right?

36:10Current chess champions are much better at chess than historic chess champions, even though the game hasn't changed forever, right? And so, but this is just because we have technology now which gives us better, more interesting answers. That's a great point. Right. I feel that too, as you're working with AI and you're working with things that you don't know, and it spits back to you, it's process. You're literally learning it in real time as you read along, even though it's doing it for you too. That's interesting. One, I think, very concrete example of this that I've sort of noticed is people have gotten a lot better at negotiating since ChatGPT came out.

36:48Negotiating, you said? Negotiating. One of the most obvious and sort of linear things you can do with ChatGPT, like think about you're going to go buy a new car used car whatever right what percent of people when they go buy their car type in the vin to chat gbt ask what price and then ask it to help negotiate like um i would say it's probably like 30 to 40 percent of people that buy a used car right now negotiate by using chat gbt interesting like it will give you some pretty good answers like negotiating a car is kind of just game theory like there's a pretty defined correct way to do this, right?

37:20Like there's obviously different strategies, all sorts of stuff. But like, certainly the person who is the salesperson knows how to negotiate, right? And do a deal. And like, usually the arbitrage is they know how to do that. They do it every day. You come in, you do it one time, right? But like, I would say the, if I had to guess, I'm curious if there's data around this, but if I had to guess the average like negotiation, like decrease in price has probably gone up since AI is out because I think more people are going in, like you don't have to do this every day to be at symmetry with the person who does it every day if you just use chat gpt powerful point so i want to i want to kind of transition a little bit you know ai right and i want to talk a little bit about communities and nfts kind of before we we run out of time here but i want to like think of it with like an ai like touch to it so like i guess just overview picture, like how do you see AI and kind of NFTs and Web3 like in communities?

38:20Like, do you see do you see agents like AI agents being part of communities now? Like how does that, how is that like progressing in your mind? I think the agents thing is cool. I think it's pretty unrelated to NFTs. Maybe we'll have NFTs in our agents. Like there will be some intersection of this, but I don't think it's like generally the case. Like I've got on record a lot saying this. I think that One of the most interesting things that, to me, the most interesting thing that AI lets you do is IP development, right? Like image generation, video generation, like concepting. Even like when we make products, we mock them all up internally with AI.

38:56It takes us a lot less time to do it that way. Like the thing that makes, that I'm really excited about for the intersection of AI and NFTs is the enablement of AI to spread intellectual property, right? and to grow intellectual property and to not need these giant studios, this kind of stuff, right? Like, you know, when back in the day, like, you know, even when Izuki launched Elementals, like that trailer must have cost, you know, mid six to seven figures, right? Like the Mythics trailer for, you know, I have no idea what they paid for that, but it's probably somewhere in that range, right? Like those short form trailers cost like a couple hundred bucks now to make.

39:34It's like a really crazy shift, right? Right. Like concepting this shirt, concepting this. It's just it's so much cheaper to make content around intellectual property that like I am very long. This is being very impactful. And what are NFTs? At the end of the day, NFTs are the best intellectual property in crypto. That's what they are. That's what they've always been. They've been the best manifestation of that. Right. So if you have AI helping you grow IP at a much cheaper, more efficient, better scale, like this is this is like probably a really big net positive there. As it pertains to agents, I am very curious to see if the presence of agents that trade increases trading volumes or decreases trading volumes.

40:16Algorithmic trading in traditional finance decreased trading volumes. Day traders trade more than the algorithms trade. You have your quant hedge funds that are market makers. The market makers trade quite a lot, but the directional funds that used algorithms traded less. they just held their positions longer, like, et cetera. I don't know if that's how it will manifest in crypto, but it's not as though we have none sort of context for this. And the context says that it does the thing that you might not expect it to do.

40:52So you mentioned agents buying NFTs. I mean, we're already seeing, right, payment rails. We're already seeing them doing this. um do you how do you think that's going to impact projects though like obviously like that volume is good but because one thing that's so important about nfts or like i think why like people understood them is like it's it's digitized tokenized culture in a sense right agents can they understand that like can they understand that like hey you know i don't know board apes are like that's part of this culture like do they understand the cultural impact are they do they're just going to be essentially trading off of volumes and data.

41:28How does that impact, I guess, the, I don't know what the word I'm looking for, but I guess the integrity of an NFT project or like, I guess the ethos of that community. Well, I mean, so like if, if agents are trading off of volumes and off of data, what is that volumes and data come from? It comes from the human active traders, right? Like a thing we never really saw in the traditional markets was like all these quant traders, we're always trading against human traders. Into 2020, it was actually starting to look like we might have basically no retail trading at all. The amount of percentage of the market that was retail trading was decreasing as a function of time going into 2020.

42:11Following COVID, that has completely reversed trend. Day trading is just through the roof. There's a lot of active trading. So we never got to this point of it's just agents trading against each other. At the end of the day, no matter what percent of the market is real human people, if you're assuming that the algorithms and the AI is trading based on trade flows and data, then that trade flows and data has to originate from the human active trader or from other agents with different strategies. I don't know. I think we'll see. It will only really matter to NFTs if NFTs is the thing where the focus comes back, right?

42:54I think we see a lot more people with agents that trade prediction markets because prediction markets is sort of where volume and attention is right now. I think had this point of tech development happened two years ago, we would have seen agents trading pump fund tokens. That would have been the main thing, right? And so agents will trade the next thing that's hot. Will that be NFTs? I don't know. If it is, then agents will trade them. But right now, it's like, would you rather set your agent on trading the more complex thing or the less complex thing? I don't know. I think there's arguments for both.

43:29What chain do you think is going to be, I guess, the preferred agent chain? I see no strong argument why it's one over the other. I, if I had a gun to my head, it's probably Solana just because like Solana is the preferred chain for the cutting edge of development right now. It's what led last cycle. I see no reason for it to not lead this cycle. Right. I think you could make some sort of argument that like Hyperliquid is kind of a chain and like agents that trade on Hyperliquid. Right. Yeah. But I, I think at the end of the day, most agents will be chain agnostic. Right. They will just look for opportunity across the full stack.

44:08Yeah, I do agree with that. I like Rob made a point about this. Like they don't care about, right, your favorite chain, which leads to, you know, they're going to be chain agnostic, but they will care about the fastest, cheapest, and most efficient chain, which kind of lends to... Why would they care about that? Because... So this is maybe I'll disagree. Like I don't think that they would care about what's fastest or cheapest. I think about they care about where there's opportunity, right? It's like there is always opportunity on Ethereum because it's slow because of MAM, right? And so like, because Ethereum is slow, that does not make it better or worse.

44:45It just creates a different set of opportunities on it, right? Interesting. So you don't think... Well, what about whoever's operating the agent then, too? I guess they could put in the parameters, right, that make the agent make that decision. But like, you don't think the agent's just going to default to, you know, fast, cheap transactions? Well, it depends what the trade is, right? Like, in many cases, the trades that work on Ethereum are trades that work because Ethereum is slow, right? If you can get in at the end of a block, maybe something's mispriced because it's actually moved in price on other venues, right?

45:20Like, like, it's interesting. Like a type of bot that makes a lot of sense is like, okay, I want a bot that looks at every chain, every instance of Uniswap deployed on every chain and tells me, okay, if on abstract Uniswap prices ETH here and on Ethereum may not, it prices ETH here, right? Like close that ARB. That requires trades on both chains, right? That trade is basically predicated on how quickly can you execute, like how confidently towards the end of a block can you execute the Ethereum transaction on Ethereum mainnet. That's like the main thing that will decide if that trade works or not.

46:00And so like, does it matter? It matters which chain. Is it better to be fast or no? Because on a faster chain, everyone is equivalently fast. Like with trades, the only thing that matters about speed is your relative speed to others. And so like on a fast chain, everyone is fast. So it doesn't mean that you'd prefer to be there. That's a very interesting. I hadn't thought about that. Because I hadn't even considered ETH as really even being a chain that agents would operate on, just strictly just thinking of me, myself, and just kind of paying those fees. But the way you kind of put that with trading arbitrage and just the lack of speed, maybe even being a feature of it, that's some interesting food for thought.

46:47Think about it this way. Take it to its... I like limits, I like the extreme. So, okay, let's say we have a chain that has a block once per hour, right? What would that mean? It means once per hour, its DEX price is going to be wrong, right? Because within that hour, the price of Ethereum has definitely changed on other chains, right? And so at the end of that hour, everyone's going to fight to close the ARB on the chain versus another chain, right? Now, compress that instead of an hour, it's however long a block takes on Ethereum. That's what happens on Ethereum every single time there's a block, right?

47:20And like, that's kind of what MEV is. And there's this whole competition. And there's like various degrees of skill of that. Like that is how this works, right? It even is how this works on Solana, right? For example, like Solana is very, very fast. but like the API called the coinbase might be at a different speed right what actually not even sure either the API like the Solana blockchain or the API called to coinbase like one of them is faster doesn't really matter which but like one of them is faster right and so you know there there will be a mispricing even if for like hundredths tenths of a second anything like that like like but that's not a bug that's a feature that's like a very interesting part of blockchain.

48:06Interesting. Well, I'm going to do a little bit of homework and send my agent on submissions this weekend. So Spencer, before we kind of end here, rest of 2026, how are you feeling about it? What are your vibes from here to the end of the year? I mean, I think it looks good. I think we're looking for a major run. This is not the major run yet. You feel that people are excited about it i i don't think you should count your chickens too early right if we have a big reversal here it wouldn't be shocking um but like keep your eyes peeled for new technologies new narratives like they are coming they will be interesting they'll be really strong um they're going to move really quick they every cycle things move faster right and so that that's that's the thing that should continue um i think being totally checked out right now is a mistake that being said like put yourself in a good mental place put yourself in a good capital position like do smart things right now so that when things get crazy again you can just run run run and you don't have to do the positioning right i think a mistake that people make during the quiet times is like it's quiet i'm gonna just like fuck off and like not and then they come back and like oh what's going on it takes them some time to get ready and that's when they've missed the like best part of the run right and so like stay ready so you don't got to get ready you can be a little more relaxed right now it's not but like it's gonna but when it moves it's gonna move like in the blink of an eye right it always does and so like be positioned in the way that you want to be positions if there's positions that you like start enabling on positions that you think if you're sitting in the cash pile right like be ready where you're like if there's something crazy that happened can i shove whatever like what is the percentage of my net worth i'm willing to shove into an opportunity like what is the opportunity have to be have those plans because you know everyone's like everyone has a plan until i get punched in the face this kind of thing right and like a real bull market it's going to be a punch in the face so yeah yeah i think uh these these lulls kind of make people forget sometimes also how violently up crypto can go when it's in the swing of going up, right?

50:05Spencer, pleasure having you again. Thanks for joining us on RectVision. I'm sure we'll see you again. Guys, thank you everyone for tuning into RectVision. We'll see you next week. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com forward slash join. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading, but haven't dared try?

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