Is Gold ready to shine?

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0:56Is gold ready to shine? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. With me today is Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGateHub. Hi, Dale. Great to have you back on. Hi, Maggie. I'm wearing my America in Distress shirt. That's the title of the shirt. As a dollar embarks on a new wave, fair market wave to the downside. Fantastic. I mean, we should have put that as the question to kick us off. It's American distress. You actually, I know we were just chit-chatting as we were coming to air talking about how much has changed since you were on October. and I know you have thoughts about all the asset markets you watch.

1:36So we're going to kind of break it down and go through them. But I'd like to start with, including gold, we're going to get to gold and metals, but I want to start with treasuries because, I mean, this has just been a massive move and so much is keying off both treasuries and the dollar. We had all through November, but even this week, we had Fed speak yesterday suggesting maybe inflation's under control that got people thinking about maybe the next move being in ease. And then today headlines that Bill Ackman is calling on the Fed to start cutting rates soon to avoid a hard landing. He's talking about maybe first quarter, which is well ahead of consensus, market expecting them to maybe start easing in June.

2:19We saw the 10-year move back below 4.3%. How are you feeling about TLT here and yields? Okay, well, if you put up the chart, our last conversation, you were talking about when the whole world was real bearish bonds still. Yeah. And we were on our way, we were making new lows. And you asked me about risk. I said the risk was the last two years. Eleaticians would call this wave five to the downside, which means it's completing and there's opportunity. and we had nice divergence down there. I talked about it, that there'd be a nice bear market rally. It wasn't the time to get out of your bonds, that I thought that this market had too many shorts in it.

3:07And here we are after a 10-point rally, a little bit above 92. And if viewers look left, there's a gap that was left on the way down last part of the waterfall decline that was filled today at 92.42. So I'm looking at it now thinking we're getting pretty close to completion of this first wave. And really the theme of what I'm talking about, all markets, is so that people don't have FOMO and they remain patient and tactical and wait for levels and the market to come to them and not worry about the train leaving without them. If it does, there'll be another bus stop down the road. But I'm expecting declines in a lot of different markets.

4:01And I think TLT's a candidate. I'd be a buyer down there. I think there's another wave that will be at least equal to and maybe even 1.618 of that that could take it up to initially 96 and maybe 102. Right. And so TLT, we're talking price. I led into this with yields on the Treasury. So you feel like the rally maybe hit a pause here. Maybe it's going to be inflation data. Maybe we'll get some bad inflation data. tomorrow. And perhaps the Fed is looking at 2050 gold and looking at the froth again in the market and may want to walk back his victory march. Really, he took a victory lap at the last presser.

4:54Maybe he's going to, you know, instead of being nice, Jay Powell, he'll be mean, Jay Powell. at the next Fed meeting. That's exactly what you can describe it because sometimes he comes out in the market, it feels it afterwards. I mean, we have seen that whiplash, post-Fed whiplash this year. He was so nice. He was so nice last time. What a face-ripping rally across the board and everything. I know, but all right. Well, so potential for Jay Powell to be a little grinchy. But you don't see a big reversal or sell-off in the way that we had before. maybe just a consolidation year, give back a little bit.

5:35Yeah, half, 50 % retracement, maybe 61.8, and then have at least the kind of rally we've had from the October lows. In fact, I read today that this is the best month in the bond market in 40 years. Which is just insane. We say this all the time, but these are huge moves we're seeing in bonds in a shorter period of time. I mean, this is, if you look at the year, both the pain when it was reversing and going up when people were trying to get long and just getting their heads ripped off. And now the same thing. I mean, it seemed like you said, a lot of people were bearish. So a lot of people missed that initial turn in bonds.

6:16Right, so the narrative has shifted. People got used to getting 5 % on short-term paper. And that's going away, which kind of pressures people that want to capture the yield to go out in duration by treasuries so that if the market's right and Fed funds are 3 % next year, they still have a better yield locking it in long term. Yeah. That could feed on a lot of things. It could also feed into maybe a different mix of asset allocators because a lot of people that were 60-40 in bonds, they lost so much money in bonds, 30-40%, maybe 50%. if they were in near the top that I guarantee you they don't have many bonds and they're more heavily stock in stock.

7:06So there could be a move back out of some stocks and into bonds that could take away some of the liquidity. That's so interesting, Dale, because, and this is the question that we have been asking and we're going to continue to ask because in the midst of that brutal move with bonds, and it's been years of this, This is back-to-back years where people have just been brutalized by the bond trade. We were hearing all over the place, 60-40 is dead. I mean, that's it. It's over. So if you have that, I mean, this is, I guess, the question we have to continue to ask. Is it over? Or now people, could we see maybe not 60-40, but a reallocation somewhat back into bonds?

7:49People like 5 % money, Maggie. They're not going to want to see it slip away. They're going to step out onto the curve to capture it. Plus, you have the potential for capital gains, not just the yield. Yeah, great, great point, Del. And we'll keep pressing on that as we turn the corner into the new year. So, and I know we're going to have a bunch of questions from all of you. I see them coming in. A lot of people happy to see you here, of course. Bye, everyone. But let's just work through a couple, just get your sort of thoughts so that we can really have a nice conversation. So the U.S. dollar, I mean, we've seen big moves in everything, which is extraordinary this month of November.

8:30The U.S. dollar also reacting to this sort of change in mindset now in terms of what's ahead for the U.S. economy and the Fed, dipping down to three-month lows. Looked like it sort of popped up or stabilized a little bit today. But I mean, you mentioned America in distress. What are you looking at for the dollar, for the U.S. dollar? Well, viewers know I've been bullish the dollar from the 99 level. I was looking for 109, which would have been 618 back. You could put the chart up of the Dixie. But we failed at 107.40, closer to 50 % retracement. And that's all this is. The big decline we had in the dollar was a year and a half ago when we went from the 114 level down to par.

9:15So all this rally did was, and I always felt it was a bear market rally, was retrace. Now, on the CPI report, I had some support at 103.5, but the way the dollar sold off on the CPI, that it's not just a price level for support or resistance, it's how a market gets there. And that was such a vicious directional day that the dollar looked like a broken chart to me. I waited to see if it would hold 103.60. That was a weekly moving average. It didn't. But now we're at retracement levels a little bit over 61.8 in the euro. So I'm looking for risk-off to be a catalyst for the dollar catching a bid for a bear market rally, perhaps back to 105-ish, which is a couple hundred points higher than where we are.

10:23and I've brought a couple of individual currencies that I like and I'll share some levels. But this really, this failure implies that if we have a wave equal to what we had, that 1 ,400 point wave from 107, that takes you to 93. And then I could do FIB extensions after that and you get like 85. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

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12:03So I just want to be clear because this is, Dell always gives us, right, gives us like short time frames. So someone just said, Dell, Ralph just said, Dell is long USD. I think you think there could be a bounce short term. I'm not wrong. So everything I talk about, if I'm looking for a pullback, doesn't mean I'm going to short it because a pullback may not happen. If I'm looking for a dollar rebound to 105, doesn't mean I buy it, looking for it to go to 105 because that's not the trade. The trade is if it gets to 105, I'm a seller. So when I was a rookie, and now I'm a mind reader, I'm kind of a trading psychiatrist.

12:48So this guy who asked me this question, because he does it and he's projecting it, thinks that if he has a level he wants to buy or sell into, he's saying, well, why don't I just buy it and sell it up there where I think it's going to go? Or why don't I sell it up here and buy it back when it gets to where I want to buy it? And those aren't trades. Okay. Just because you think you're going to get to a level to initiate a position, it's not high probability that you bet on that counter trend move. Okay. So even though I think the dollar is going to rally, I'm not long. I'm waiting for my spot to get a long euro.

13:36I have the euro chart with us. I'm thinking between 108 and 107. I think there is a possibility of 107. I brought the - Okay, wait, is this the euro? Euro. Hold tight on that chart for one second because I just want to make sure we fully understand the dollar. So you're talking about looking at that 105 level because you're ultimately bearish the dollar. You think this is the dollar's going down. Yeah, but I don't chase markets. I think that what we're getting now is the completion of the first decline. I could be wrong and it could waterfall and go to 100. That's going to be a stopping point.

14:20But the way I see the market shaping up, if bonds start to give up some of their gains and yields start to just rebound, I don't think it's going to be long-lived, the rebound. That could put pressure on stocks. And I really don't like what I'm seeing in FANG stocks, which are the ones that led this rally back to the upside and, you know, ripped the shorts, you know, eyeballs out. Shorts off the shorts. Yeah. Yeah. People were going commando after that. So, so I, you know, I think that's part of this, all part of the scenario. I think metals could pull back, but I could be wrong and we could just break out.

15:04It's been such a big move. It would be natural to see there be some backing and filling some, you know, across all these markets. Yeah. Hard to find a dollar bull right now, hard to find a gold bear right now, hard to find an equity bear right now. Right. So these markets could, uh, you know, have a bit of a reversion trade happen in a few weeks. And that's why you're setting, you're looking at those prices as your sort of set point to be prepared for the next move. Now, I am short Apple. Today, I bought January 180 puts. I think it's going to 175, maybe 165, revisit those lows. And, you know, I'm looking for a pretty good sell-off here in the S &Ps.

15:58Wrong over 4 ,600. Wait, so let's – we'll go back to that. So I wanted to get in a thought from Andreas before we go. So we finished up with the dollar. I want to move on to the euro. But before we do that, Andreas dropped an update for the business cycle. And he's watching developments in Europe. So I thought before we talked about the euro, it would be interesting to listen to a clip from that. Let's do that, and we'll talk on the other side. So ultimately, what I'm saying here is that for the vast majority of companies out there, financial conditions are historically tight. It doesn't hold true for a couple of the big names within tech.

16:40It doesn't hold true for a couple of the big names within green tech. But in any case, the vast majority, the bulk of companies face extremely tight financial conditions and financial conditions lead to actual activity. You can use these indices to say something clever about the business cycle into three quarters from now. And therefore, the safe conclusion from this chart is that Europe will see clear headwinds from a credit and conditions-based perspective into 24. In the US, the picture will be mixed between some large corporations seeing very easy financial conditions, but underlying tight conditions for the rest of the corporate sector in the US.

17:30And ultimately, that will likely also drag US activity towards activity levels seen in Europe right now. That's at least my takeaway for next year. But remember, there's a short-term positive story for the U.S. still ahead of New Year's. That entire presentation by Andreas is available on our website. He goes into more detail on his outlook, what he's watching, and the timing. By the way, some of you may know, but Raoul, Julian Biddle, and Andreas do these business cycle updates on the regular. They're on the plus tier, but that Black Friday cyber sale we had is extended through today, 50 % off all memberships and upgrades.

18:13So take advantage of it if you haven't yet. So, Dale. Just do it. Just do it. So, Andreas definitely sees Europe, and he's like you, looking at a short term but then longer term into 24. he definitely sees Europe weakening and things happening there first and that leading. I'm wondering how you're thinking about euro dollar here. What are you looking at for the euro? Well, I'll tell you what, if I'm right and I agree with him about Europe, then I think we transition to Asia. I mean, things are already happening in the end. You know, that's changed a bit too. And then the U.S. So that's kind of the sequence I see as different sectors of the world.

19:02The euro had this nice rally. I was looking for 102 for months, but at bottom at 104.5, it's rallied a little bit over 110. And if I get that rally in the Dixie back to 105 or so, I think there's been opportunity between 108 and possibly 107 and a half, 107 to buy the euro. After that, I'd be looking for 112 for a little pause. And eventually, I think we could be looking at a 120 to 130 euro, which will only exacerbate Europe's problems having a strong currency with a weakening economy and their exports will become more difficult. Just something else to put on the fire. That's so interesting. Yeah.

19:55And that's a product of the dollar weakening against the euro more than anything, right? the change in the U.S., but that'll put the pressure on. Very interesting and problematic for Europe's economy, for sure. So we were able to tie that into what Andreas is talking about. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. He'll probably, you know, maybe he sees this coming, too. I'm going to share that with Andreas and make sure he does. Most people would take this forecast as being bearish euro because Europe's going to have trouble. Yeah. But sometimes a strong currency happens because you're having trouble and liquidity issues.

20:37So people gravitate to the cash. Yeah. No, great, great point. And a nuanced one as well. Aussie dollar. You're looking at Aussie dollars. Speaking of casting our gaze toward the East and Asia. Yeah. So the Aussie is threatening a breakout out of a, I call it a falling wedge. We're, you know, we tagged it today. I'm looking for a pullback anywhere around 64 and a half, wrong under 62. The next wave, I think, is 69. Eventually, I think you could see 80, 90 cent Aussie. Wow. Okay.

21:51So commodity currencies, I think, are going to be stars. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

22:07It's amazing how everything's moving. I mean, we often talk, you always say you get the dollar right, and then that sort of sets everything. Peter Brandt is famous for saying that as well, who's a frequent guest on with us. you got to get that trade right, which explains why you had your shirt and we're talking so much about currencies. So we've got a couple of questions. You also said over gold. We started the show by asking a good question about that. And Mark is asking, you said it's hard to find a gold bear. Do you see that as a crowded trade now? When is it assured? And then JJ also asking about silver as well as gold.

22:49But let's talk about that gold chart. What do you see happening? I think DSI is about 80 % bulls. Now, I'm not brave enough to short it here. Again, I'm going to wait for pullbacks. What I'd like to do is, if I'm right about a dollar rally, we should get a pullback in gold. Gold could fight a stronger dollar, but I expect that it will pull back. I could be wrong and we get through 2070 and we're on our way to 2250 or so. That's going to be the big breakout. That's a triple top that everyone's focused on. I think there's even, you know, a low probability, but it could happen that gold could pull back to 1900.

23:39That would be about halfway back of the whole move. I mean, that would be a back up the truck moment. I don't give it a high probability. But I'm going to be looking at where gold and silver are at when the dollar looks like its rally is peaking. And I want to see how they perform if I'm right about the S &Ps because this pullback could be anywhere from$2.00 to$1.00. 300 handles in the S &Ps, what I'm looking for right now. 4340, outside shot of 42. And, you know, this break should hold. So, you know, I am participating in this counter trend by capital puts. But as far as gold is concerned, that would be a great buying opportunity.

24:30I'm bullish. I don't, I think you put shorting out of your head. for the next couple of years. And you just do what people did in S &Ps for years, buy the dips, buy the dips. There's much higher prices coming. Perhaps silver might be more affected by, if I'm right about risk-off, because it has the industrial nature to it. Perhaps silver pulls back to$23.50, 23.20. but all the gold shares, all the miners, well, not all of them. There are exceptions. Most of them, including GDX, have broken out. So if there's a general market sell-off, I think they're going to hold up quite well. Maybe they're going to continue to the upside.

25:20And you're not late if you didn't buy the bottom because these miners are trading like when gold was$1 ,400. Uh, so, and also it doesn't take a lot of money flow to make the miners move. You could take all the market cap of all the miners and it would be like one day trading IBM. So, yeah. So you, you envision like, you know, if they put under the streets, the sewers, those big round things, those are your, you know, your large cap stocks. And then think of gold stocks as a garden hose. Think of silver and uranium stocks as a straw. It doesn't take a lot of pressure buying power to make these things go.

26:15if things begin to and the physical metals have been acting better than the shares for a long time but the shares have all they're all awake I brought one that I've been showing on the show since I've been with you guys and it's called Fortuna Mining I brought that chart what are you looking at there? or it's Endeavor no it's Fortuna I think it's Fortuna Fortuna So it's up 50 % in about two months, came out of a falling wedge. It's a best performing miner on my screen. So what do you do? Okay, if you're afraid of missing it, you buy some and say, boy, I hope I bought the top. So this market comes down so I could dollar cost average in or buy it on a pullback to$3.30 to$3.

27:14But this I showed long term, major resistance is up around 10. It's a huge rectangle. And if it ever broke out over 10, it could go to 18 bucks. If we have like that$60 silver move. Right now I'm looking for about 38 and silver. So buy the pullbacks. So everything I've talked about is I'm expecting countertrend moves to what's happened over the last month. and they'll have different degrees of magnitude. But, you know, that's the way I'm positioned going into maybe the first couple of weeks of Christmas. I think it's really important that you're, you've said this in different ways throughout, that don't chase these things though, right?

28:05Sort of look at, get in your head what you think is going to happen and then look for your entry points for the next move. Because this is the beginning of bigger moves to come. And so you're kind of trying to, so don't sort of like be caught up in the enthusiasm and the crowd right now, it sounds like you're saying. And you could always learn new things. And I believe I have, I'll share it with you guys. Bitcoin broke out two weeks before the stock market bottom. Broke out before yields turned. broke out before the dollar turned. So I think I now have a market, whether I trade or not, that is an early indicator of what the rest of risk is going to do.

28:52And it's been kind of moving sideways, losing momentum for the last week or so. And I wouldn't chase Bitcoin either. I think you'll have a chance to buy it at$30 ,000. So this is what we say here, crypto is macro, macro is crypto. So all of these things are interconnected. And that is a really interesting observation of that as an early indicator. Riles talked about that a lot. Maybe it sniffs out the liquidity faster than larger markets. Exactly, Dale. This is what Riles spent a lot of time talking about. This is why we just put the Crypto Academy up online, folks. Well, you know, great minds.

29:28Right, exactly. So that we can think about this now that we've kind of been through a couple of these cycles. every time people are learning more about how these cryptocurrencies interact with the rest of the markets. It's all flow. Yes. It's all flow. Yes. And that's something Jem Carsellin talks about from Options 2, which is why it's so critical to have veteran traders on like you, Dale, because you've watched that for a long time. So all of you, we had this with Tony Greer as well, all of you start to get a sense when you're seeing the flows. and also the confirmation, which in a big move like this, that's hit across so many different asset markets, has you thinking this is a different regime.

30:09And so you're getting yourself prepared for that. So I think that's so important that you've kind of laid out for us. It's so important that we make sure that we underscore that because it's important for us all to watch, I think. And when I was bearish from$4 ,500,$4 ,400,$4 ,600, I was looking for$39.5,$39.60, the lowest$41. I would come on and say, you know, if you're bullish, you ought to hope that this call and forecast works out because you're going to be able to buy things cheaper. They were able to buy NVIDIA$100 cheaper and Apple$30 cheaper. Tesla still hasn't really recovered. But you had bargains everywhere.