Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026

0:00New week.

0:04Big moves. You ready? Andreas on the data, Mikkel on the flow. Turn the headline into trades you can't know. From yields to inflation, every chart, every trend. Get the story, get the setup, from the open to the end. They try to be as actionable And as honest as possible But keep in mind that their predictions might be Sometimes may be good Sometimes may be shit Sometimes may be shit

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1:06Andreas Steno:Hey guys, and welcome back to Macro Monday. I'm Andrea Steno, and I'm flying solo once again today, as Mikkel is still enjoying that Italian food and wine. We have a great show for you today, and we'll basically answer the question that matters the most for markets right now. is the oil still flowing despite the hiccups that we've seen in the negotiations between Iran and the US over the weekend. But before we get started, from Connect to Alpha to Pro, we've basically dropped our prices to their lowest levels ever here at Real Vision. The setup is once in a lifetime. That's why we're slashing prices so you don't miss out.

1:48Andreas Steno:So you can go to realvision.com slash pricing to secure your future today. And of course, to complement all of that, we have our three flagship reports here from Stenowee's research with our portfolio updates and more for the pro tier each and every week. And I can tell you that we are on an absolute roll at the moment. So it's probably worth every penny if you buy a pro subscription. At least I'm a very, very happy guy today, and I'll get back to Wiser Watch at the end of this show. Before we get to the micro-portfolio ideas, let's have a look at the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. I think it was on Sunday, Iran suddenly told the world media outlets that they were planning on leaving the negotiations due to the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

2:45Andreas Steno:And as far as we know, live as I'm speaking here, the negotiations are still ongoing. We've actually had a pretty decent news flow out of the negotiations today. But it's still unlikely that the situation will improve in a straight line from here. Remember that it's less than a week ago that we got the signing of this memorandum of understanding between the two parties. And yet a few days after that, we suddenly had the Iranian side out saying that they would close the Strait of Amuse again. So maybe that's a good place to start. Is the Strait of Amuse actually closed or is it open? Let's have a look at the flow data that we can actually confirm on page five.

3:28Andreas Steno:So after the signing of the memorandum mid last week, we had a couple of very solid flow days, as you can see from the spike here on the chart of vessels crossings in the Strait of Hormuz. We're still pretty far from normalized levels pre-war, but as far as I can count, and also confirmed by the US administration, we had oil flowing at an extent that was pretty close to pre-war levels during Friday and Saturday. Then on Sunday, we had these hiccups in the negotiations and only one major oil cargo left the region with Saudi Arabian oil. So maybe three, three and a half million barrels left the region on Sunday.

4:15Andreas Steno:Today, still no confirmed news about the flow out of the region, but the oil is at least partially flowing and the strait is partially open. I think that's the fair assumption as we speak and remember, which is basically a to the thesis that we laid out during April and May, where we lectured right about every oil pond on earth, there is also a flow that is unaccounted for in this official data. We had a flow out of Abu Dhabi to, among other places, the U.S. during May, for example, and none of it was confirmed in the official data, but we had more oil coming out of the region than what was reported.

4:59Andreas Steno:And as I said, But through those months, both sides basically had an incentive to keep that as a secret to ensure that their leverage in the negotiations was kept intact. Looking at the current development in oil prices and byproducts on page six, a good question to ask right now is obviously how much of a war premium do we actually have left? and to start with with the dated oil market in in dark blue here well we have i'd say around 25 percent uh worth of the war premium left in the oil prices we're still above pre-war levels but not by a lot and as you can see basically since early april uh it's been one-way traffic lower in the oil price and um yeah subsequently we've seen a one-way traffic lower in all of the byproducts as well.

5:55Andreas Steno:Jet fuel, for example, in red here, the price in Singapore, it's almost halved since its peak in early April. So, you know, by all means, we've basically flipped from a regime where energy prices went up in a straight line to a regime where they're coming down fast, even though we're not fully back to pre-war levels. But actually, in some special cases, we are even back below pre-war levels. Take the example of the urea in the U.S. Gulf in light blue here as one of the fertilizer products. We're actually trading below the levels that we saw pre-war, which contrasts the alarmism that we saw from a lot of energy pundits during the first weeks of the war, where everything from a famine to a shortage of fertilizers was discussed.

6:53Andreas Steno:And I mean, I simply think that it is safe to say now that we can discard those worries. Having said that, would I short oil here? I would probably spend my mental bandwidth elsewhere. We're very close to an all-time record high in oil shorts in futures. So, I mean, this very clear bear case for oil with the reopening of the straight and all of that is pretty well telegraphed by now. It was a great risk reward a couple of months ago, probably not the best risk reward anymore. And therefore, I would probably use my mental bandwidth discussing the second order effects in other asset classes now rather than the direct impact on oil, for example.

7:43Andreas Steno:So the macro backdrop as a consequence of this landslide in energy prices has changed quite dramatically. And that's maybe the main message to you guys today. If we look at page four, we run this live data at NowCastIQ, my now casting company, that you also get access to on an ad hoc basis here at Real Vision. and you know the big game changer since i'd say the first week of may roughly is that inflation has rolled over as you can see the axis here kind of tells you whether to expect inflation to accelerate or de-accelerate and we're currently disinflating across the basket actually it's not just an energy story.

8:31Andreas Steno:We do see very, very benign price developments also outside of energy. For example, core goods are rolling over as well in our data. We're also talking about pretty benign developments in everything related to housing. So when will this turning tide in inflation actually impact, for example, bonds or, for example, metals markets again? I think that's basically the next story to consider here. Why are energy prices falling without rates falling? I think that's a key question to ask. And if anything, I'd argue that interest rates are probably more linked currently to the very hawkish rhetoric that we've received from many of the big central banks.

9:20Andreas Steno:on the back of this energy price shock. So, for example, the European Central Bank, they hiked interest rates, and they also forward-guided towards more interest rate hikes. And it's not like they've really changed their tune despite this landflight and energy prices. The same goes to some extent for the Federal Reserve. I mean, they upped their projections a lot for inflation this year. They don't really see a big respite coming despite the opening of the Strait of Vamoose. So they basically, in their new predictions, they basically marked to market the inflation forecast through the latest known inflation print, more or less.

10:04Andreas Steno:So I wrote last week that I would bet my house, my car, even my wife, but not my kids. A lot of people commented on that, on the under of that inflation forecast from the Federal Reserve. I think it's even more safe to bet on the under of the inflation forecast of the European Central Bank. Remember that for the third quarter, they have in their mild inflation scenario an oil price of$88 per barrel. Sorry, that is a lot higher than today's levels, and it's in their mild forecast. So in all aspects, we're talking about a turning tide in inflation relative to expectations, and especially relative to the expectations of central banks.

10:52Having said that, as you can see from the light blue line, we've also entered the most sideways

10:59Andreas Steno:growth environment here compared to the acceleration that we saw earlier this year. And therefore, I think the main driver of assets here is probably going to be the green line, which is the liquidity channel. The liquidity channel is doing well still. And we're talking about a meaningful addition to liquidity also over the coming four to five weeks as we see these tariffs being paid back to corporates. And therefore, when looking at the liquidity picture, I'm of the view that we have a fairly benign liquidity development upcoming all the way until maybe the first week of August, while inflation is coming down and growth is sort of trending sideways.

11:44Andreas Steno:All in all, I think that should be good news for multiples. I also think it is at least partially good news for the front end of the yield curve. So I would be in favor of receiving interest rates here. And in terms of the broader equity market here, I guess this could also lead to at least a slight rotation towards more cyclical names, for example, within industrials and other such cyclical sectors.

12:18Andreas Steno:In terms of the AI trade, which has obviously done incredibly well, We're awaiting the results from Micron on Wednesday, but we already got some, I'd say, early hints around the trends within the memory space on page seven from South Korea earlier today. The first 20 days of the month were once again solid for exports in South Korea. We're talking about an acceleration of 60, 65 % year over year. Again, that is an acceleration versus May. And we're basically still seeing an accelerating demand picture. Spot prices for DRAM are still on the rise. And if you look at the expectations for Micron on Wednesday, we're talking about a bottom line that probably improves roughly 1 ,000 % versus a year ago.

13:11Andreas Steno:So it's that kind of growth that we're talking about in this space. and my working assumption is that the market is too pessimistic ahead of these numbers from micron um so even though it sounds awkward to say that stocks that are up i don't know how many x since a year ago micron sandisk etc are still worth a buy i actually think they are uh given that all of the like underlying parameters are still accelerating uh the exports from south korea are accelerating. The price of DRAM is accelerating, and so on and so forth. So it still looks very, very attractive to remain in this bet. If you want all of the details around how our pattern recognition model from Nowcast IQ predicts returns in this new inflation rolling over environment, you can go to Real Vision and sign up for one of the discount deals to get access to those conclusions.

14:08So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now.

14:24Andreas Steno:You can hear that I'm a smoker today, right? Kidding aside, let's move to the laugh of the week because we've had some major news out of the UK this morning, even though Trump kind of hinted so, to say the least, on Sunday via his Truth Social account. He basically told us that Keir Starmer would resign. I don't think I've ever seen another head of state telling us that another head of state will resign the day after, but that was what happened yesterday. And we'll bring you the live reaction to Keir Starmer's statement from the cross-arms pop here. I hope my producer can play the soundbite from X that I found earlier today.

15:10...has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. I have spoken to His Majesty the King this morning to inform him of my decision. ...has been about putting the country...

15:31Andreas Steno:There we go. Obviously, that was a manipulated little soundbite there. Having said that, let's have a look at the fundamentals in the UK now that Kirstammer is going to pass on the baton. We don't know as of yet who's going to succeed him. I think more or less everyone expects Andy Burnham to be the next Prime Minister in the UK. But take, for example, a look at the five-year real rate differential between the US and the UK here versus the sterling foreign exchange rate in measured in dollar terms here, the cable. I mean, I don't think we've ever seen such a big spread. And you could argue that this is a Kistama premium.

16:20Andreas Steno:You could also argue that it's like a post-Brexit premium. No matter what, sterling assets have underperformed during Kistama's rail. I don't think there is any way other than that of explaining it. And therefore, if the new prime minister takes office and sort of accepts the reality, I actually think that this could be pretty decent timing to buy into some of the under-owned sterling assets here. And yeah, the sterling trade in itself could be pretty interesting. Maybe guilds could also be interesting in relative terms if the new prime minister accepts sort of the fiscal reality that he or her is going to inherit from Kierstama.

17:07Andreas Steno:I don't have strong views on the next PM as of yet, but we'll obviously keep you posted in our geopolitical updates on the topic. Later this week, Mikkel, my colleague, will return and will provide his takes on the situation in the UK if you're interested. Finally, I'd like to point your attention to a couple of micro-trades. We're running this portfolio at the ProTierre Real Vision. It's been doing great. And pre-market today, we received some news from the company that was once called Mind Medicine, now Diffinium Therapeutics. It's an old health company working with LSD and celosipin products as treatments for everything from depression disorder to anxiety disorder and stuff like that.

18:04Andreas Steno:So the total addressable market is huge. The existing products related to these disorders are pretty weak. and the news that they released earlier today related to their LSD-like product and the phase three results on using that product for depression treatments. And the results are very, very convincing in my opinion. This is obviously an area that has been a focus for RFK in the US as well. And we're seeing Divinium Therapeutics up approximately 55 % today as we speak. This has been one of the biggest positions at all in our pro portfolio. And I know a lot of members are pretty happy today about the developments here.

19:02Andreas Steno:So am I. That was why I hinted earlier that I am in a very, very good mood today. This has also personally led to a pretty decent wealth increase. We still await results on the psilocybin stuff. We should probably expect the results just after the summer, maybe in August, from the Phinium Therapeutics. So there's still more in the pipeline that could reprice this stock higher. So it's one of the cases that we've been really early on and that we've accumulated over the past year or two in our portfolio with great results. And I think I'm up several X now on this case. Having said that, on the flip side, we've seen a lot of discussions around microstrategy over the past week.

19:52Andreas Steno:And let me just chip in briefly. A lot of the focus is centered around the STRC instrument, which is basically a PREV share that Michael Saylor and his team designed with ChatGBT, by the way. He openly admitted to that. And on top of that, they've obviously used that instrument to raise cash to buy Bitcoin. That STRC instrument traded aggressively lower over the past week. It has rebounded a little bit. But it led to the question that, you know, I've received that question a lot of times. Is microstrategy an issue for the Bitcoin space? And two things as of now. First, I don't think there are any signs whatsoever of an imminent pressure on the balance sheet for MicroStrategy.

20:49Andreas Steno:The next major refinancing date is in 2028. So, I mean, they don't have any issues meeting their obligations, say this year or next. No issues whatsoever. whatever um what worries me still is that this is a levered model that in case of a very hostile market environment when you need to refinance could lead to a very slippery slope right because if you need to refinance these instruments during very hostile market environments where the capital market is basically closed uh sailor and his team would have to sell bitcoin to meet those obligations. While that is not necessarily an issue from a liquidity management perspective, it would be an issue for the Bitcoin space and it would be an issue for the model itself because it's kind of self-feeding if you need to sell what you own to meet your obligations, right?

21:44Andreas Steno:You would rather have the opposite loop. And therefore, I've always said about this model of Michael Saylor that it very much depends on him getting the timing of cycles right. Because if you need to refinance during very hostile market environments, this model will quickly lead to a self-feeding negative feedback loop, while it is also a self-feeding positive feedback loop in the other direction. So it kind of amplifies the volatility of the space. And I don't think that's preferable, to be honest. But having said that, those that are currently using this as the main reason to remain bearish on Bitcoin.

22:26Andreas Steno:I think those worries are misguided since there are no reasons to expect Michael Saylor and his team to sell Bitcoin to meet the obligations during this year and next. You can just take a simple look at the refi calendar for MicroStrategy and see that it's not really a worry for the very immediate near term. But I think I will leave it at that. The inflation tide has turned. The macro regime has shifted decisively towards inflation down now. It is yet to be appreciated by central banks. And therefore, I think from a macro perspective, you should shift your mental bandwidth from trading energy products to trading some of the buy stories of that inflation regime shift.

23:10Andreas Steno:And if you want all of the details on how we trade it in our portfolio that is on an absolute tear, you can go to realvision.com slash pricing and pick up one of your discount offers to gain access to our research. Thank you very much for tuning in to this week's Macro Monday. We'll be back, both Mikkel and I, next Monday. And remember that we have a load of great shows coming up this week here at Real Vision that you can enjoy. Take care out there. You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership.

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