Is the Solana Trade Back On? REKT Vision x Raoul Pal

25:53Yeah, what did you make? I think Van Eck are just planting a flag. I think they want to get some feedback, figure out what is possible, what's not. I don't think anybody expects this to happen instantly. but it just shows the direction of travel, I think. Could it be a 2025, 26, 27 event? We don't know. It just doesn't feel like it's this year unless the regulatory regime changes. The other thing we need to think about is, obviously after last night's debate, the probability of Biden being swapped out is extremely high. So who is that going to be and how is that going to impact our playing field here?

26:31you know it feels that newsom is the one that's being positioned but who the hell knows could be anything newsom being california's probably pro-tech uh in a more meaningful way i think you know i think the biden administration has managed to lose all of the big tech founders to trump which is an extraordinary they're all democrat voters and they've all gone to the other side. Newsom, maybe he can pull them back. Because don't forget, it was Newsom who was organizing Xi to come and meet them in California. That's a whole other story. But I don't know, that's the thing we all need to think about is what's the probability that Newsom is pro-crypto?

27:13Yeah, I'd love to get into that some more. We'll just link on the Solana bit for a bit longer, because I know you've been posting around Solana ETH and Solana Bitcoin. What's your view there? Do you think this is now going to be the leader from here? Yeah, I'm putting out a video, probably got today, which was just showing all of the relative things that I'm looking at for this, why I think the trade is on. And the Solana Bitcoin chart is super clear. It's a beautiful stair-step consolidation, stair-step consolidation. Same with the ETH one. So again, they all hit the bottom of the wedge, triangle, channel, all of the relative continuation patterns.

27:54Goes higher. And if it does, then we've got another big outperformance to come from Solana. So I just think if the space is going to get liquidity, the further out the risk curve gets more. Solana's got all the narrative and a real huge amount of traction. And we still haven't got Fire Dancer out yet. So there's a lot here. I think it's very difficult to beat Solana this cycle, just super difficult. Even if ETH manages to find a massive use case, it's suddenly YouTube is being tokenized on Ethereum. It's still going to be very difficult to beat the narrative and the momentum that's currently behind Solana.

28:37yeah how do you define that in terms of this cycle i think i was looking at soul versus eth and just soul and if you look at it on a year-to-date basis um eth is outperformed but if you go back to obviously november of october last year there's been a huge outperformance of soul so i think for me sometimes and look i own both i'm bullish on both and i always wonder in my head should i switching? Should I be overweight more one than the other? But for me, sometimes I wonder, have we already seen that solar performance versus ETH given the moves in the last, let's say, 12 months? And that's why on a year-to-date basis, this actually hasn't been the greatest trade.

29:22And because you have the ETH ETF tailwind and we saw the impact that had on Bitcoin, and bitcoin moved from where it was 45k to um to almost 70k post et in a few weeks after the etf like have we seen all that stuff happen and are we now just kind of in this have we lost the alpha and now we just have this kind of beta to eth basically is the question i'm just going to interrupt i'm just going to interrupt slightly because there is a second filing that's just happened 21 shares have just filed for a solana etf2 so that's the second um and there was definitely rumors that bitwise would do it so this is interesting to see if they all start lining up if black can you make that weekly chart um yeah yeah let's see if yeah in the back yeah no you've gone to this is actually uh this is actually after doing it oh arthur can you go to weekly yeah uh yeah you can't see it as well as i've got it drawn but to me it looks like we just see that move in the early 2024 it was like an abc correction then shoots higher abc correction shoots high it's very typical that's what i think i'm you know i also am cognizant of your view Ovi that this could be flat to sideways and it just is a beta play um but then I don't mind that as long as it's not gonna yeah nuke versus ETH I don't really care I think I think it's the best way to look at it one thing that did surprise me is that yeah we've bounced on this good news but we haven't really bounced that much like you actually take a step back Solana has just come out with a 10 ,000 improvement in X, improvement in scaling.

31:11It's got an ETF being applied for now by two different issuers. And it's basically built a whole payments network for X alongside any other network. And it kind of bounced 7 % on that ETF headline. It's now been sold back down. We need new money. That's exactly it. Price tells you a lot, though. Yeah, that's what I mean. So global liquidity has been flat. that tells us no new liquidity. The business cycle hasn't really turned positive. That tells you earnings aren't yet being reinvested or people aren't making money. So you're kind of stuck in this no man's land for now. And the next one will be the ETH ETF.

31:53So that'll be new money into crypto land. And then we can all play with that money for a bit. It's basically how it is.

32:05We And for crypto land economy to grow, we need foreign direct investment or even hot money flows. Either way, we need fresh capital in. So let's go back to the point that you made, because I think it is interesting. We are obviously 24 hours just after the debate of Trump versus Biden. What do you think? So you think now, I saw polling market now has a 40 % chance that Biden drops out. Trump's odds of winning have now been 65%. Do you think there's a play here now for the Democrats to still win this via Newsom? Do you think he's got a shot? Do you think Biden even dropped out? There's also RFK as well.

32:47I don't know. Politics is a weird game to predict. I can't keep out of it all. It does feel like for crypto, Trump has obviously been very pro, and Gavin Newsom, I think, would be more pro. So we're starting to look at a better outcome in all scenarios, but it can be important for some of the policy stuff, I think, that could even be done over the next few months. There's obviously lawsuits already, even this week between Coinbase and the SEC again, and these sort of things like the Solana ETF going through. These are, at the end of the day, they're very political decisions, it feels like, at the moment.

33:21Even the ETF towards the end felt like that. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that one develops. But I do think that it's now seemingly more likely that we're going to get a more pro-crypto outcome. Here's a question for you both. Why are the Democrats so against it? We say they are. We see that. But why? What's their game here? This is what I don't understand. If I play it in my head, I'm like, well, you're clearly alienating 110 million Coinbase account holders. sure only like 15 million of those are active right now but there's probably 50 million crypto holders i think most governments who feel like they have a lot of power are probably against it because it's a threat to their power and if you look at places in the world where it has been adopted it's governments trying to get competitive advantages against other countries or other nations right and it's clear like trump's been like okay cool you know i mean trump doesn't really care about crypto right i don't think you i don't think i'm not kidding myself i don't think he really cares but with 50 million coinbase with 50 million crypto holders in the u.s he realizes it's a massive um you know needle mover potentially so he's an opportunist so he's like cool let's just stick this in and now suddenly everyone has to care but if you don't if you're not fought back into a corner to care or if you don't have a competitive advantage for having it then as a government i don't see why you would ever endorse it because it is in my opinion a transfer of the balance of power from you as a government to people which you want to avoid i think that's my view and what about the uk as well because sorry i was gonna say ideologically i think it's most is most aligned with libertarianism right and that doesn't really have a political leaning.

35:10I think it was originally a more left-wing ideology, which then seemingly has been more right-leaning recently. But I think it's just more, I don't know, it's more of a protest-style ideology, I would say. It's anti-big government and more self-governance, I would say. And that doesn't really lean anywhere. But recently, it's more lean, that with kind of a protest style vote and obviously been leaning with more right-wing style people putting it forward but i think we could genuinely be here in 20 years and that could have completely switched you know what i mean i don't think it necessarily leans with with democ the the republicans here it's just it just lean it's just lent with them right now but i've been surprised about it too i really have and there was one thing we were going to bring up is is also i don't know if you've seen but the eu has brought in this mica regulation this this week um and you have the uae saying headlight similarly that they're basically and have huge restrictions now on dollar stable coins and we've spoken about on this show that the power of the of of crypto really for the us is the power of the dollar they can push forward the idea of of the dollar seeping into various different economies, that's dollar power.

36:26At a time when petrodollars between the US and Saudi Arabia, that deal's come to an end, this is just another way that they can push it forward. And you're actively seeing other countries now restrict it. There's arguments that Tether and Circle might not even get a license to operate in the EU with these new restrictions. They've got to get one in the next two days or something. It's something ridiculous. A lot of the major exchanges here in Europe are actually potentially even closing down tether. So that's how serious they are. A lot of these other countries are now getting against US stable coins.

36:58And for me, the US has got to realize what an amazing position they're in here. They've got to be pushing this technology as strongly as possible because it really has ability to dollarize so much of the world here. Another question, I guess, Ovi, for you is the UK is about to go through an election. Where does this fit into that equation as well? because we've got a ton of uk viewers it's it's not been to my knowledge and i've been tracking this every day pretty much um uk lecture stuff it hasn't been mentioned once i haven't seen a single mention of it the last mention of crypto in the uk was which is you next great we're going to make the uk a crypto hub about two years ago and since then pretty much nothing has happened except the exploration of cbdc's and that's it so it hasn't featured here too it's not something that I think is debated here.

37:51I don't actually know the total number of crypto holders in the UK, but it feels like the absolute number is obviously a lot smaller than the US. So

38:01it hasn't gained as much focus, but yeah, it really hasn't been the slightest bit of feature in this election. It's all about taxes and just taxes, actually. Labor are going to increase your taxes. Amanda, there's another question for you on this. If these governments are trying to stop the US domination of their own economies, which is why they want to restrict stablecoins. Are we going to see the rise of multi-currency stablecoins? So an Aussie dollar one, a Euro one, Sterling, outside of CBDCs, which are domestic currencies, these would be international markets for them. You're on mute. You're muted, Michael.

38:49That coin to desk article, which actually came out, I think yesterday, was a really good one. It details everything. This is explicitly, these rules are being done to stop dollar stable coins coming in and taking over power against the euro. It's explicitly in the regulation that that's what they're trying to stop here. This isn't some byproduct. They've written this to try and stop it. They basically said if your stable coin has more than 200 million transactions, then you're going to face massive limits on what you're able to do. which Tether and USTC massively, massively go over. So that's why they're looking at these stable coins and being like, well, you can't really operate here.

39:29So they're really trying to promote euro stable coins. So we will, I'm sure, see a lot of European exchanges kind of be forced into having these euro style stable coins as their base asset to a large extent or heavily, heavily restricted slash regulated dollar stablecoins. You might have to see an emergence of native Euro issuers of these stablecoins, which I don't know if that's a strong thing. In fact, the Tether CEO came out a few months ago and said, this is not a good idea because you're going to get a lot of smaller players coming in, perhaps with less experience about how to operate in that world coming in and potentially that's more risk to the system rather than letting someone like a circle, which is kind of heavily regulated, be the main dollar stablecoin in that market.

40:25So there's been a pushback here because this could really change the power of these stablecoins in Europe. And then similarly, the UAE, I mean, there were some pretty sensationalist headlines last week, which is like the US, UAE is going to ban crypto. And if you actually read the stories, it was that they're basically going to ban dollar stable coin transfers, particularly for payments. So there's a big, big push right now of big economies and big economies where UAE is one of the top places for crypto globally, for a lot of different firms, that they are coming on here to the power of the dollar in these other countries.

41:03If I'm sitting there and I'm looking, they're still fighting over Coinbase versus the SEC. They should be going like, this is the most power we can have. We should be trying to push this in as many places as possible. Think about all the different countries that are very, very tied to dollar stablecoins. Not all of them are the friends of the US. Turkey spends 4 % of its GDP right now on stablecoins. Venezuela is a big user. Russia, Ukraine were. I mean, there's been obviously limits since the war there, but dollar power was seeping through the world here and people are starting to cotton on. I think the US just stopped fighting about it and just start promoting it as much as they can.

41:43Yeah, because how I thought about this is, this is just the fractionalization of the euro-dollar market. So if you think the euro-dollar market got to all the major banks in the world, they've now just got the next step, which is down to the individual. But that's the complete dollar takeover of the world that's there possible because people in any country in the world can get access to dollars instantaneously. People don't get this because we all live in countries where you get access to dollars easily. But trust me, if you're in India and suddenly you can get a bunch of money through into US dollars instantaneously, that's a very, very big deal.

42:19Yeah. So if US, if you're listening, stop fighting over it and realize the incredible incredible opportunity that you have to ensure the future of the dollar for the next few decades it feels like this is this is such an obvious move in my opinion i did want to i did want to linger on on the the two main payments headlines which was this solana links um move which is basically going to allow transactions through x and pretty much any other website instantly so So through a link on X now, you can swap. You can pretty much do anything on Solana. So all the major apps on Solana are now integrating onto X.

42:59So you can do any swap. You can send Solana. You could do leverage betting on Solana. You could do polymarket style bets on Solana. You can do literally any app you can use now via X. You can stay on X and you can just use any Solana app. I saw this and I thought this is just, this changes the internet for people. I don't think it does yet. And here's why. Firstly, you need to have a wallet. So this is not for anybody. This is for the same bunch of apes that are shifting money around this economy. And by the way, I use Safari as my browser. I can't even have a wallet on my Safari. So I now would have to look at X in Chrome where my wallet is attached.

43:45So I think there's a lot of friction points still. because of this whole wallet idea, that it still doesn't really work because it's just the same crypto people now doing on X as opposed to going to a landing page. I would agree with that. Yeah, I would agree with that. But it's getting close, right? I can see that. It's getting very close to where we can instantaneously make transactions. But it really is. It's like a hidden world for anybody else. So when I'm on my Safari, I don't see any of these. I just see some random link. The biggest friction point is still people setting up their phantom wallet, writing down their C phrase on a piece of paper and storing it.

44:29You still have to do that. That's the problem. What you're saying is a really interesting point, which is, yeah, I think maybe for crypto native users, this is a game changer. The other big piece of the week was that Coinbase has now got a big integration with Stripe and that they are going to help with fiat to crypto on-ramps. And already with Coinbase Smart Wallet, there was talk about, you don't even have to know you have a seed phrase. This is all going to be integrated into the site to be able to do all these different transactions. Out of those two things that came this week, which do you think is going to be the bigger and better thing, I guess, here?

45:09I think from Real Vision's perspective, that Coinbase Stripe thing is very useful because we have Coinbase Wallet, we have Stripe. And to be able to have a seamless integration is much easier. So now I can take a credit card billing or a token billing for anything. Now, could we integrate the new Solana experience on Real Vision, assuming that if we were to integrate a wallet in whatever experience, yeah, that works too. So I do think at the margin here, there is a change it's not quite there coinbase and stripe just does make it a lot easier for people it really does yeah for normal adoption it's a big thing yeah what did you think osf yeah i think look if you're a business and you're making sales in fiat money but you're also making sales in crypto it's still a bit of a hurdle to be able to seamlessly integrate those two things and we're looking at that now for the rec drink staff and it's like cool we want to be able to accept payments in crypto because people may want to just degen their 0.1 ETH and buy a bunch of drinks or whatever.

46:11And to create that, it's just so difficult still. And it's not seamless. But having this kind of integration, I just think this is bigger than the Solana thing because it has a larger TAM, if that makes sense. It's more applicable to a larger audience. And there's less of a hurdle for people to get on and just start using it without even realizing they're using it. That's what I think that integration could create. Whereas with Solana, it's like you still need to be Solana native for that until you have some kind of multi-facing, seamless wallet integration where you don't know what chain you're on and it just connects to your bank account or credit card.

46:48So until you have that layer built, I think this ETH Stripe thing is much, much bigger. So I think Stripe has got a deal with Solana too. I think they came out and they did a big, they had that big video with the Stripe CEO saying how they're going to integrate into Solana. I think the big thing here for me is the on-ramp. Coinbase can work with your bank. So the idea that you can have that sort of an on-ramp of straight to bank account, I think is quite a big deal here versus Solana where there's no centralized exchange. FTX was the Solana exchange, right? And then they haven't got that titan of an on-ramp, I think here, which Coinbase is really going to be.

47:28Coinbase is now incredibly important, I think, for the future of ETH. Now that it's built its L2 on base, I really do think that it could be a cornerstone here of what happens for ETH in terms of onboarding. So yeah, I think that there's a very valid point there that that could be the bigger out of the two of them. I think that's it for our topics. We went through the top six. I think there's some good debates there. I've got one to raise. sure so iggy azalea hit me up yesterday on twitter to say hey i want to speak to you i'm like this feels dangerous to interview her and i'm like so i reached out to ansem and said hey do you want to take this one and he's like yeah maybe what do you guys think i think he should it's it's very controversial absolutely but i think people want to hear the whole lowdown here the whole story and you've never been hated online as much as i have when these things people troll you know in 2026 they're showing you saying they're showing you saying something and assuming that you recommended it you know it's just it's that it's pretty bad you you gotta here's how you do it in a way where you don't get hated for it you maybe have answer or maybe have someone who's very skeptical and you just grill her you just say look we'll do it but we're going to grill you we're going to ask you very hard questions and we're just going to grill you and that's it and we're going to take the other side of it and that way it's like cool this isn't just like a celebrity shilling thing this is like we're trying to you know see if your intentions are truly genuine and if you really really do understand the space and that i think can come off pretty well but you know when i think when people have given these people limelight and they're just kind of like oh this is great this is amazing that you have gone from singing to loving crypto i think that doesn't really do anyone a favor to be honest with you so just like come in hard and just grill her and then i hope that would be a good show but she's got to know that's going to be the case people need to know the blockchain inside out before we can do stuff on it i might show this is this i i just don't feel like you should do it bro like you'll get you'll get there's been a lot of celebs that were coming in the last week the reason the context of which we didn't even give is that years earlier has done a meme coin which has done better than 99.9 percent of other meme coins uh particularly celebrity meme coins and she's done it a bit more seriously in fact she was at the new york stock exchange shaking hands with with various different people like a few days after she did it, she definitely tried to do it.

49:49I think she's pretty genuine in it. Yeah, she has. She has for sure. As we know, attention is very difficult to maintain over extended periods of time. And very few things do it. And how do you maintain the attention of a meme coin on a single celebrity over a year or two years you know it's it's nothing against her it's just that's bloody difficult to do and then people make the fatal mistake of building utility and then people value off utility and all goes to zero anyway you know it's like it's it's a very very hard game to maintain over a period of time what do you do when the time times get tough and you don't want to stick around posting memes all day when i get back to actually performing as a music artists, you know, like that's the, that's the real question.

50:37And then what impact does that have on you as a rep, you know, does it matter is another question. It doesn't matter. Is attention okay to be in three month or six month chunks and you make money out of it and people lose money out of it, but it's all part of the attention economy. You know, I don't know if you, it's actually on the Real Vision platform right now. There's an amazing article from Delphi, I actually put it into GMI as well about this whole attention economy stuff. Well worth reading. it's it's um it's a brilliant article that's my view if i'm honest my view which has really come more this cycle is that these coins are attention coins they don't have to be forever i think people are happy to play the pvp game of them for like a short period of time we spoke about on the show before but like people are literally betting on euros teams you know it's like if england win there'll be an england coin that rallies because people are playing actually like almost almost like a betting on the game.

51:31And they realized that after the tournament's done, it won't be relevant, but these coins are no longer forever. And I think that's kind of okay. So even if her coin has a life cycle and it goes to zero, I think that's what people even expect these days. It's no longer right. Yeah, that makes sense. But therefore, it's not really a great interview for me because I tend to be longer term time horizons and everything else. It needs to be somebody who's in that timeframe where six months would be a great long trade for them but really they're normally you know one week to one month kind of time horizon that's a better way to navigate this than me trying to impose some sort of ridiculous macro framework on what i wouldn't link it to the japanese bank that's for certain um should we uh on that note should we do some do some questions for your questions yeah let's do that 10 minutes whatever we have um all right here's the first question from melvin on the Real Vision website.

52:29I think an easy one to answer. What is the probability we'll get a sole ETF this year? I mean, yes, sub 1 % this year. Wow, it's low. Yeah, I mean, Trump's not going to be, even if he gets in, wouldn't be until January, right? What does Polymarket say? This is just a great thing about Polymarket is it's seeing more volume than ever. So the actual stats themselves must be relatively decent. You bringing it up, OSF? I'm bringing it up right now, yeah. It must be below the 10 % in my opinion. Because these processes take already 7 % chance. Everything's on Polymarket. Exactly. It's great now. And because of the volume, the data's getting better.

53:11It's not like you're sitting there going like, oh, yeah, but only... Actually, I don't use it. Is this built on blockchain? Polymarket. Yeah, it's built on Matic. It's built on Matic. It's one of the only major things that's still going on Matic, I think. But talking about taking it to different blockchains. In fact, Solana's got a version, which I think is called Hedgehog. Hedgehog is the largest version on Solana. And every single major L1 and L2 is now trying to get something similar to Polymarket. But this raised with Peter Thiel the other day. I think they raised at a multi-hundred million dollar market cap or at least valuation.

53:46But they haven't got a token yet. They haven't got a token. 15%. I would have given it. I was thinking 20%. So 12 % chance. yeah this feels this feels about right this feels about right so yeah it feels very unlikely but who knows all right next question this is from safar on the real video website if this year we're going to have one rate cut then does it mean next year we'll have more plus it coincides with the banana zone plus sole etf basically meaning we could have a very long bull run in 2025 do you guys believe even the extended bull run thesis for next year and potentially even beyond?

54:27I think it's really difficult to know. I think it's just difficult to know. It depends where the animal spirits go. The liquidity cycle finishes around the summer, it peaks. But many times, usually, the crypto market doesn't peak until the end of the year. So could it peak earlier? I don't know, and I don't want to play for that. One thing just about the rate cuts is we don't need rate cuts. for this. It's liquidity that drives it. Rate cuts are actually a delay on the liquidity that happened ages ago. So if we go back to 1994, 5, where the big hike in rates, bond market freaked out. Everyone thought we were going to go into a recession.

55:10We didn't have a recession. The Fed cut in 95, 25 basis points, then a 50. Rates were still miles higher than the low from 1993. And the Fed was on hold until 1998, until the Asian crisis. That was the strongest period of outperformance in market history. So I just like stability is fine, as long as there's liquidity. So I think it's a red herring. Yeah, I agree with that sentiment. Who would have thought we'd hit all-time highs in pretty much every asset class with rates at five and a half percent nobody because it's it's not rates it's liquidity everyone's pumping pumping money so that's the thing i'd be looking at i care far more about what's happening with let's say this japanese bank uh situation where they could be print or printing you know hundreds of billions trying to help bail out that that ecosystem that seems to be to me to be a far more or more interesting thing than just rate cuts.

56:08I think rate cuts, like you said, are just a red herring, really. Rate cuts matter for Main Street. Liquidity matters for Wall Street. Let's put it that way. Yeah. Okay, next question from Andrew. He would love to get your take, Raoul, on the ISM manufacturing PMI. Does it need to drop lower or are we done and back into expansion? um look we put a lot of work out on real vision julian patel does tons on this um all of our forward-looking stuff just says the business cycle improves from here and so there's a bit of chopping around a bit of noise everything says it improves which is kind of what we should expect into macro summer um we don't need it to go lower we don't need to do anything it's been below 50 for a long time now one of the longest periods ever much like the yield curve has been inverted.

57:04So no, I think it gets stronger and that's a good thing. It brings earnings back into the economy. Those earnings get recycled into crypto. When people are feeling more secure in their jobs and all of that, and they're earning a bit more or their local businesses earning more, money gets recycled. So yeah, I'm just positive on that. All right. And I think we have time for one more. I'm going to ask this question because I think it's interesting and always worth considering. This is from AT on YouTube. What would you need to invalidate your bullish view for asset markets so i guess like i mean we've talked about this before in the past what sorts of indicators we're looking out for to give us a sense of when the tide turns but are there any like near-term risks or things or headwinds that could potentially change your view holistically my view would be you've got to show me the liquidity's changed you know if suddenly we see the world central banks deciding to tighten liquidity okay then we've got a big problem there's one thing that is not playing the ball and that's the dollar so the dollar is financial conditions and the dollar going up is the one thing that is spoiling the party a little bit which is one of the reasons why this dollar yen trade is so important but if the dollar keeps screaming higher then it's going to push rates higher and it's going to cause financial conditions to tighten, and that's going to give us something to worry about.

58:36Not end of the world worry about, but it could stop this whole rally in its tracks for an extended period if that happens. What do you think, Michael? You're muted, by the way. We had this discussion a couple of days ago, didn't we, with the other partner that we have. It's really, I think, more about the unknown unknowns here. We've now had quite a big rally. And the only thing I really see happening here is either a big geopolitical event happens before, let's say, Trump gets into office, if you start to see a bunch of aggression around the world, which could happen, or just some other unknown unknown.

59:19It just feels as though that's the only thing I could look at and be like, we would see a correlation of one move down just because of how far we've come. We bring up the NASDAQ chart, gold, Bitcoin. We've had a bit of a run here. So if you were to have something that suddenly shook people out, I think it could be a little bit worrying. But the macro setup here just looks so obvious that we're going to have an increase in liquidity to me and that we're going to go into a more accommodative monetary cycle that I don't see anything that throws us off there. It's really just me something that, wow that could really shake us that i'm not that wasn't really in everyone's before we had the core pce today which is the fed's chosen gauge is at 2.6 percent in line and rates are at five and a half i mean exactly i mean that's lunacy so and the economy is relatively you know subdued and inflation uh unemployment's ticking up so that's madness but yeah i don't know what else an event that could do this i mean yes dollar yen let's say it explodes to 170 or something and the dollar the dollar is that the only thing i can really think of outside of geopolitics uh which tends to be short-lived they tend to be geopolitical events tend to be as soon as anything actually happens the market rallies like hell yeah i think geopolitical risks are always present so that i never see that as like a headwind to any bush thesis i think inflation maybe is a concern someone sent me a um chart of containerized freight index um the containerized freight index chart today and it's tripled since the beginning of 2024 so stuff like that is is worrying i would zoom out i think that one got absolutely hammered in 2023 it did and also So this point in the cycle, commodities pick up as global economies pick up.

1:01:21So you see this kind of stuff happening, but it's such a small weighting in CPI. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we worry about inflation at the end of the cycle, kind of not the beginning of it. We'll see what happens when Trump's in power and he's yelling for lower rates and all that. Maybe a change in the Democrat Party where we don't know what's going to happen, or God forbid Biden dies or something like that. Okay, that could cause a nasty little fear section because markets hate uncertainty. Uncertainty, yeah. Yeah. Well, on that rather uncertain note, I think we better wrap up the show. But thanks everyone again for tuning in on Rec Vision.

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