Macro Mondays: November 24, 2025 | Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold

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3:09Thanks a lot.

3:16Hello all there. Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays here at Real Vision. My name is Mikkel Rosenwald, your usual host, and as usual, I'm joined by you, Andreas. Welcome to the show. Thanks, Mikkel. It's good to see you. Yeah, you too. You too. Things are looking up a little bit today, Andreas, so let's see if we can keep the mood good. I had a very interesting week here in the macro landscape, of course. Before we get to all the juicy stuff, just a couple of our usual reminders, etc. This is our free weekly show at Real Vision, where we give some sneak peeks into our research and analysis for the full package, you need to go to the RV Pro tier.

3:55There are lots of great offers to enter the Real Vision community if you're not part of it. The community is currently being updated with a brand new platform. I think that's very, very exciting. It allows us to provide you with even more of our insights, even more regularly and more direct to the case. So that's very interesting. So make sure to check out all the Black Friday offerings going on right now. Even with the U.S. holidays going on later this week, We've got a really packed week ahead of us at Real Vision. Tomorrow at 9 a.m. Eastern, we have Raul and Julian shooting the shit. At 10 a.m.

4:27Eastern, Andreas, you're doing your macro meets micro. We'll submerge to that a little bit later. And on Wednesday, just before Thanksgiving, we have Joe Bland giving a live portfolio update. Chris Bullock's sitting down with Caleb Franci at 11. And trading the market show as well at 1 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. So really, really packed couple of days here at Real Vision going into Thanksgiving. obviously trying to make the most of a very, very interesting week. We're obviously also publishing all our regular articles. There's no such thing as Thanksgiving here in Northern Europe, so we're working full steam ahead with everything you're used to receiving from us, including our model portfolio update.

5:08So, Andreas, perhaps especially during these times, it's important to give you our usual catchphrase are a little flagging here that we try to be very, very specific, very, very actionable in our recommendations, but we might be. Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit. There we go. Genera, got to see for you, gentlemen. So, Andreas, I want to jump straight into what we usually call hot takes of the week. I try to gather some funny or interesting charts from across X. One of them we had a few months back was a guy posting that October 6th would be the very, very top in Bitcoin. So far, he's been completely right.

5:57We laughed a bit at that. But Andreas, a lot of people on X are trying to see various patterns. We talked about October, November, etc. I tried to make a little one of myself because we talked about this last week that it felt like there was sort of a weekly rhythm at the moment. So I tried to compile data from the last three months. We can get the chart up on the screen here for the S &P 500. And there seems to be a trend, which is not the usual trend necessarily for S &P 500, but over the past three months that we have quite nice Mondays, Tuesdays okay. And then we begin to get bad news out of the White House or crises across the world or just a general bad mood.

6:40does this say anything about the psychology or nervousness of Marcus lately or how do you view this Andres it's actually a very good question because you know my initial thought when I saw this weekly pattern it by the way holds true even if you look further back than just three months Michael Thursday has been the worst if you look at the the whole year to date my initial thesis seeing this data was that if you look at the weekly seasonality of the Trump administration, they've grown accustomed to deliver upbeat news late Sunday, early Monday, while they've typically announced tariffs either Thursday or Friday.

7:25I remember back in March and April, we had these Friday afternoon announcements on tariffs more or less weekly. So I think that explains at least a great deal of this seasonality through the week. So the simple reason why we're up today is that it's Monday. There's nothing more to it. It's Monday. And that kind of kills my positivity a little bit, Andreas, because if that's all there is to it, then we probably have a rough week ahead of us. Anyway, let's see, Andreas, let's see if this holds up. This must be a different week then because you have no Thursday trading day. So, yeah, let's see. Let's see.

8:02Okay, Dres, another hot take from the internet here. I just came across this. We're going to talk more about the December meeting today. Of course, you have a couple of points on that. I saw this from Barry's profile, not only this Ash Crypto guy on X, that suddenly the polymarket odds for a rate cut jumped. Now we need a pump. And I think maybe we have a few words of caution here. Obviously, the December meeting is very, very important. But it's not going to save crypto or what, Yenres? Just to get the helicopter perspective here. Well, a rate cut is not enough on a standalone basis. I think the key question for December is actually the balance sheet now.

8:47A week ago, many pundits concluded that too many members of the committee were against easing in December. I'm personally still in the camp that they'll end up cutting interest rates, especially after what John Williams said on Friday, the regional boss of the New York Fed disk. So I actually think it's a make or break meeting in many ways. First of all, we need to see how they deal with this very fractured, almost polarized committee. You made this simple sketch from just the speeches that we've had, say, over the past couple of weeks. Four members more or less explicitly stating that they're pro-cutting.

9:32Waller, Bowman, Miran, three of Trump's lieutenants. Let me put it like that. And then we have John Williams, as I mentioned, on Friday. He really moved the needle on pricing. Then we have four members clearly stating actually explicitly that they would probably prefer not to cut. And then we had Lisa Cook and Michael Barr out last week. And both of them kind of referred to the financial excesses, valuation risks, etc. So if anything, they're probably more in the right-hand camp than in the left-hand camp. But they didn't explicitly state that they would not be willing to cut in December. And this is a big regime shift compared to the very consensus-driven Fed that we've seen under Jay Powell.

10:20If you look at the typical number of dissents back during former governor's reign, then it was much more normal to see this kind of internal divergence between hawks and doves within the committee. But Powell has been incredibly good at forming a consensus, trying to orchestrate a very uniform message among all of the members. But, you know, they're shooting right, left and center right now. And, you know, it's very tempting, in my opinion, to also, you know, pull these pro-cutters and anti-cutters from a political standpoint. I mean, many of the members to the very right here, including Lisa Cook, as I mentioned, they've been appointed by Biden and vice versa.

11:13To the left here, they've mostly been appointed by Trump, right? So I think it's very, very obvious that there's a political game going on now between these two camps within the committee. By the end of the day, I think John Williams is incredibly important to listen to. He's, first of all, known to be a close ally of Jay Powell. It's very rare that John Williams has gone on the wires stating things that haven't been, at least to some extent, cleared with Jay Powell in advance. So I think John Williams has said that they need to expand the balance sheet. And I think he's now also very clearly stated that he's in favor of cutting near term.

11:58So it might be worth listening to. And the market actually did listen to it on Friday.

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13:08Some of the undecided camp here might be waiting for more data. And it's a little bit unclear what data they might actually have. So I just wanted to take a quick look at our regime model. This is what we base a lot of our research on, or at least use to support it. This is the regime model for the U.S. We're running it for a couple of other countries as well. And it's essentially, for people who don't know, it's essentially the likelihood of either growth, inflation, and liquidity growing or not. I mean, Anders, just look at this inflation probability here, dropping like a stone. Will we see that already in inflation numbers during coming weeks, or is there a bit of a lag?

13:48What do you expect? So the inflation report for November will be released on the day of the press meeting for the December FOMC meeting. So I guess they will be allowed to have a look at that data before taking a decision. It's worth mentioning here that we've gone from a high probability of inflation actually rising year over year to a almost non-existing probability of inflation going up. So this basically means that we'll probably move from a three-handle to a two-handle again in inflation. It doesn't necessarily mean that we'll get back to target, but it just shows that inflation is not building pressures on the top side.

14:31And I think that's very relevant when you look at this decision in December. If we get a soft report, that probably seals the deal. In any case, we're not too far from a GoldieDog scenario. But the issue here is that actually through parts of October, also the early innings of November, it felt more like a down, down, down scenario with this one, right? With growth taking a small beating, as you can see now in our costs, mostly due to trading volumes coming to Sutton Hall due to the standoff with China. We saw inflation coming down and we saw liquidity coming down, not least because of the constraints in repo markets.

15:11So we're starting to see a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel for the repo market and the dollar liquidity market. We're seeing inflation disinflating versus its current yearly growth. And we see growth sort of in a lukewarm territory right now. So we need to see the needle moving on growth as well to really get to a golden egg scenario where growth is picking up while inflation is doing nothing. Interesting, Andreas. Okay, now before we get to a couple of recent questions, we've gotten some really nice ones this week. So we usually do, but especially today. So I wanted to set aside a bit of time for that.

15:51I just want to touch on one thing that I think most investors need to be aware of moving right now. And I think most people are following what's going on in Ukraine. the peace process has got new momentum after the leaked peace plan. And it seemed to me like the Trump administration sort of jumped at that opportunity. I'm not sure they leaked it, but it sort of jumped on that to breathe some momentum into this process. And, you know, Andres, it's very, very hard to predict this because we don't know what's going on inside the Trump and we don't know what's going on inside the mind of Vladimir Putin.

16:22But, I mean, where we are right now, and I'll expand on this in my The Drill article later this week, Essentially, we have a U.S. peace plan that a lot of people are criticizing for being sort of dictated by Russia. So we have that plan. They took that plan to Geneva to meet with Ukraine. And now we're hearing that out of this meeting with Ukraine, they've agreed on a plan. So there should be a lot of momentum here. There should be a plan that both sides are more or less agreeing to. so we don't know if the Russians are sincere in this if the Ukrainians or if they can find common ground but it seems to me like there's a good chance that there's at least some chance that this could be very very quick and a lot of stuff could happen over the next week so so really really something something to to consider I've been banging the peace drum for for a long long time so I've worked on that scenario for for a long time and we'll expand on a little bit later but just a heads up for investors that this could be another one of those geopolitical game changes like we've had earlier this year.

17:26But this perhaps with a positive outcome for market breathing, some positivity into markets. So a developing story. We don't know what's going to happen, but one to watch, obviously. Yeah, and Miguel, as far as I'm concerned, they actually, there's a soft deadline on Thursday for these talks, right? Yeah, there's a lot of momentum, a lot of short-term sort of pressure to get this done some one way or another. It might not get done. It might all blow up. But there is a chance that this could develop. And that's obviously another game changer for markets. Michael, you sound increasingly like Jim Carrey when you describe these deco-chases.

18:07There is a chance, right? I'm saying there's a chance. Yeah, well, I'm hoping for peace. But let's see. Let's see. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Okay, Andreas, I want to move on to some listener questions that we've gotten in here. We have a lot, obviously, on liquidity, etc. Let's start out with these two that I grouped together. It's going to be a little bit much to read, so I'll try and do it relatively quickly.

18:46You can view it on the screen as well from Theta. Besant expects, I'll try and do them in the right order here. I'm not sure which is the right order. Anyway, how likely are we to see elevated sofa stress again at month end? If so, that could likely mark a bottom as a lot of options exist to support the sofa market, including TGA drawdowns, new SLR coming up, and light QE. So do you see this as the buying opportunity? And how do you see the surface status right now, Andreas? I mean, if you look at repo rates a couple of weeks forward, we're certainly not completely out of the liquidity, which yet, despite the TGA shrinking by roughly 110 billions by now compared to the peak during the shutdown.

19:35So we have seen some liquidity being added to dollar markets, But we're still, say, between France, a couple of hundred billion from going above paying levels again in the overall dollar money market liquidity. And this is why I still expect the Federal Reserve to do this light technical QE to get the balance sheet back to a size that they can sort of deal with the repo markets with. in relation to the supplementary leverage ratio, the SLR I think this is a key question for next year and it is you know, it's a trend that is starting to catch some momentum also with some of the governors talking about the balance sheet policy of the Federal Reserve.

20:22I wrote a whole story on this on Friday that we're starting to see, especially some of the lieutenants the Trump lieutenants, asking for a smaller balance sheet in return for very swift rate cuts. So if they can deliver on that cocktail, bringing the balance sheet size down while they deliver a lot of rate cuts, they think that kind of policy mix is more aimed at Main Street rather than Wall Street. And I think there is some merit to that. Let me say a few words on this supplementary leverage ratio easing. I think it was back in the early summer this year that the Federal Reserve hosted a special meeting on this topic, and they ended up proposing some revisions to the supplementary leverage ratio.

21:12And the supplementary leverage ratio is essentially a piece of legislation or capital legislation that decides how much capital you need to set aside as a liquidity buffer in, for example, your high-quality liquid asset book. So again, it is a piece of legislation that designs how much capital you need to set aside when you run risk as a bank. and the proposed changes to this supplementary leverage ratio would lower these capital requirements for the so-called GSIPS, so these systemically important banks. And I think, as far as I remember, on the holding level, the current requirement is five and will be reduced to a range of three and a half to four and a half.

21:57So we're talking about a sizable reduction in percentage points. And if you look at the subsidiaries, we're talking about a drop from six to three and a half to four and a half, the same range as mentioned. So to assess what this means, you simply need to estimate the risk-weighted assets of banks, because that's essentially the liquidity you need to set aside or the capital you need to set aside is a function of how many risk-weighted assets you have on your bank. balance sheet. And, you know, based on my back of the napkin calculation, I think every 100 basis points reduction in the surcharge of the supplementary leverage ratio unlocks, say, ish$150 to$200 billion.

22:50So at the very least, we're talking$250, maybe even$300 billion worth of unlocked capital capacity from these banks. And I actually think the most important conclusion of that is that that capacity will be available for lending. Of course, there is also this discussion on whether they will be allowed to hold treasuries and their high-quality liquid asset books without having to set aside capital for that. And I also think that's important. but maybe not as important as the surcharge on a border scale. So, you know, overall, we're talking at least a couple of months of peak QE from the COVID era in terms of how much capital this frees up.

23:41And again, it goes hand in hand with the wish to try and limit the amount of intervention from the Federal Reserve in the private market. And instead, they want these banks to be incentivized to hold treasuries. So it's sort of an indirect QE, if you know what I mean. They want the banks to do it. And on top of that, they will ease their capital requirements to allow them to push more money out into the system. Very, very interesting when the exact timing of this implementation will be best at this, as alluded to here, referred to first quarter, and I think that's likely. Interesting. Now for something completely different here.

24:22A very interesting question we got in from a guy called Sir William. I think it was on the Real Vision platform here. I don't know how much you follow this address. So a little bit of a curveball here. Sir William is, as name suggests, UK-based, heavy investor in Tesla Bitcoin strategy. And he is a bit frightened of the upcoming government budget that's going to be announced on Thursday. afraid of a bond market revolt, perhaps also reminiscing back to the list trust days here. We don't know exactly what's going to be presented, but there's been a lot of talk on wealth tax and mansion taxes, Andres.

24:59I saw one calculation from one of the earlier tax commissions that you could put a wealth tax of 1.12 % on assets over£10 million. It could bring in a lot of revenue to balance the budget here. how screwed is Sir William using his own words here rate his screwedness I actually don't think Tesla, Bitcoin and MicroStrategy are super sensitive to this budget from the UK administration overall I think it's it's getting increasingly hard to be upbeat on the UK outlook especially fiscally and the guild market is is suffering as a consequence of this. We've also seen the spread widening materially between treasuries and guilds and yield terms this year, and I expect that to continue.

25:52So, you know, rate my scrutinous, you've chosen the wrong place to live. Can I be that blunt? I don't necessarily think it's a biggie for your portfolio. That's a positive, at least. This one was interesting, Andres, from Trav Barger here. What's the probability that the Bitcoin market structure changes, meaning that liquidity is no longer the main driver for Bitcoin and that marginal liquidity is choosing to go to other markets, data centers, most notably perhaps, on a permanent basis? Is there something to this, Andreas? So I think the big question for 2026 is whether this trend towards Federal Reserve not being as active with its balance sheet as it has been in the past, and this whole trend of legislators and commissioners trying to push private banks to do the liquidity injections in the economy, whether that alters the picture from an asset allocation perspective.

26:57because it's not the same if the Fed injects liquidity or if a private bank does it. A private bank is much more inclined to lend that out to the real economy, data centers included. And it is less clear that it goes directly into asset inflation when you do it that way. We only have a sample size of one yet because actually this year, the Fed has been pretty hawkish on its balance sheet. They've been very slow in terms of responding to the repo market stress. But we've actually seen a pretty material liquidity injection from private markets, despite all of this. And we've seen international equities outperforming even tech in the US.

27:44We've seen international equities outperforming Bitcoin. And maybe that's not a coincidence. And it's something that I've started to ponder to do something about structurally in my portfolio. But I think the make or break is the decision in December on the repo market and the balance sheet. Because John Williams, for example, is still in the old school camp, fighting his 2008-2009 PTSD. and when you have PTSD from 2008, 2009, all you do is to expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. So I still think they have one expansion left, at least the technical one there. And that should be pretty good news for Bitcoin at least for the next three, four months.