My Life in 4 Trades: Dan Tapiero

12 May 2024 · 1 h 17 min

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Real Vision Podcast Episode Notes

Episode Title

My Life in 4 Trades: Dan Tapiero Episode Description Dan Tapiero, founder, CEO, and CIO of 10T Holdings, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his career in high-stakes trading and shares the four pivotal trades that defined his journey in finance over three decades.

Key Themes

  • Personal Journey in Finance: Dan Tapiero reflects on his early life, education, and the key influences that shaped his career in finance and trading.
  • Career Highlights: Through the lens of four significant trades, Tapiero illustrates the highs and lows of his experiences in trading and investment.
  • Philosophical and Analytical Approach: The importance of critical thinking and an analytical mindset in making investment decisions is emphasized throughout the interview.

Summary of Key Discussions

Early Life and Education

  • Background: Tapiero grew up in New York City and Princeton, New Jersey. He attended Lawrenceville School and later studied history and philosophy at Brown University.
  • Interest in Finance: Influenced by familial ties to banking and a fascination with foreign currency, Tapiero's interest in finance was sparked later in his academic career.

First Job and Early Experiences

  • First Job: In 1991, Tapiero joined a trading class at Kidder Peabody during a recession, where he was the only trainee hired.
  • Learning Environment: He crafted his own learning experience by moving around different trading desks, gaining insights from various market dynamics.

Trade Highlights

  1. First Significant Trade: Irish Punt (1992)
  2. Context: Amidst the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis, Tapiero recognized an opportunity to short the Irish punt against the pound.
  3. Outcome: The punt devalued, leading to significant profits, illustrating the power of thorough analysis and understanding of macroeconomic trends.
  1. Worst Trade: Japanese Government Bonds (1994)
  2. Context: After a successful 1993, Tapiero became overly confident and heavily invested in Japanese bonds, which plummeted after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
  3. Outcome: A loss of 50% of his profits served as a stark lesson in risk management and the importance of market timing over fundamental analysis.
  1. Successful Trade: Thai Baht Devaluation (1997)
  2. Context: Tapiero forecasted the impending crisis in Southeast Asia and took a position against the Thai baht, mirroring his previous experiences in the ERM crisis.
  3. Outcome: This trade was highly profitable, reinforcing the lessons of historical patterns and critical analysis.
  1. Failed Venture: Avatar Metaverse Company (2008)
  2. Context: Tapiero invested in a friend's metaverse startup without going through his typical rigorous analysis, relying too much on trust.
  3. Outcome: The company failed, highlighting the risks of not adhering to investment protocols and the impact of personal relationships on business decisions.

Founding 10T Holdings

  • Transition: Tapiero discusses the shift from traditional trading to focusing on digital assets and cryptocurrencies with the founding of 10T Holdings.
  • Thematic Approach: His experiences shape the investment strategy of 10T, focusing on managing volatility while maximizing upside potential in the evolving digital asset ecosystem.
  • Philosophical Reflection: The journey from macro trading to digital asset investment reflects an evolution of thought, integrating lessons learned from both successes and failures.

Key Takeaways

  • Critical Thinking: A liberal arts background can enhance analytical and critical thinking skills essential for navigating complex financial landscapes.
  • Risk Management: Understanding and managing risk is crucial to trading success; even seasoned traders can experience significant losses.
  • Innovation in Investment: The growth of the digital asset ecosystem presents unique opportunities that require a blend of diverse skills and perspectives.
  • Trust and Due Diligence: Relying on personal relationships in investment can lead to pitfalls; thorough due diligence is always necessary.

Conclusion Dan Tapiero's insights provide a compelling narrative of resilience, adaptability, and the value of continuous learning in finance. His experiences serve as a roadmap for both new and seasoned investors navigating the complexities of modern markets.

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Transcript

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0:01Picture yourself on a beach, retired early and enjoying financial freedom. If this is your dream, then now's the time to level up your investing game, and Real Vision can help you. We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed on your financial journey on your own terms. Take control of your future and visit realvision.com forward slash free. That's realvision.com forward slash free.

0:38Hi, everyone. Welcome to another edition of My Life in Four Trades. Joining me today is Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings. Hi, Dan. Welcome. Hi. How are you? Hi, Maggie. I'm doing well. This is going to be a really fun conversation, and I'm sure it was really hard to whittle down to just two of your best, two of your worst, given the long career you've had. But you managed, and we're going to jump into them in a moment and discuss. But first, it's our tradition to just kick off with a little bit of background. So tell us about your early years. Where'd you grow up and what were you like as a kid?

1:12Well, I guess as a child, I mean, I was born in New York City and grew up there when I was very young. And then also later on in Princeton, New Jersey, and then went to the school actually that I'm still involved with, Lawrenceville School. It's a boring school and focused really on playing water polo and swimming. And it was a tough place academically. So you really had to work hard. But once you made it through that place, college was sort of a breeze. And I ended up going to Brown and studying history and philosophy there. um yeah you know that was a great experience for me even though i can't say i was thrilled with all the liberal politics and stuff going on there and it's gotten much worse but i stuck to my you know playing water polo and studying and was active on the newspaper there too so that was uh that was right up until i guess 22 i did an extra year actually at brown to study another year in history and i used that year really to think about what i wanted to do uh afterwards and were you thinking about finance it's it's amazing by the way philosophers not on this program i should say but were you thinking finance or was it something else that you were focused on career-wise?

2:52My grandfather had been a banker on my mother's side in London, and my father's side had been in business for a long time. So I was aware growing up of all sorts of things, and we traveled a lot as well. So I was always fascinated by foreign currency as well. And so that was something, but I wasn't, you know, I wasn't one of these guys like starting a business at age nine or 12 or whatever it is.

3:26And I just, you know, I had this approach where, you know, I really did like to read and I would read all sorts of things. And then I would follow things that I was interested in. and I was talking to a friend of mine and he said you know you should take a look at this book the alchemy of finance by this guy George Soros he does lots of currency investing trading etc so I read that book and I mean it was fascinating I probably read the first 100 pages of it you know 10 times over the years or more I can't even remember and then I read that fun book Jack Schwager's book, The Market Wizards. And again, I was doing my MA that final year and I wasn't playing water polo, had a lot of time to just sort of think about what interested me.

4:15And some of these stories really were exciting. I remember the section on Bruce Kovner was just fantastic. I thought, wow, that is sort of exactly what I could do. And I think in the Schwager book, that talks about Kovner, you know, he was a, I think, a humanities major as well somewhere. And, you know, I sort of felt always that I thought in a similar way. And he would read widely and then come up with a big thesis about the world. And then instead of writing a paper about it and getting a grade, he would put an investment on, you know, he would. And I just thought, well, that, you know, I had a lot of energy.

5:01that seemed exciting, connected to things I'd always sort of been interested in. And so that's how I came at it from an abstract standpoint. Which makes a lot of sense with that background when you think about macroeconomics. But it's funny because it's switched, hasn't it, where everybody's really intent on that MBA and that finance degree and not at all thinking about liberal arts or any of that. Yeah, I mean, I think the most valuable asset one can have is the ability to think critically and creatively. And I don't know, an MBA or economics, I tried to take one economics course and really dropped it in the end.

5:53it was just so boring. Microeconomics or LSDN line or whatever it was called. I just didn't make any sense to me. So I actually got into this and had never really taken an economics course. And I still think about things in the same way that I did, you know, in the very beginning at my very first, you know, proper job that I had working for, you know, a tiger. And So how did you, what was your first job? How'd you get involved? Yeah, it was 1991 and my, it was a recession, if you recall. I do. The 80s in the sort of late in 88, 89, it was still sort of really rah-rah, even after the crash. And then we had that recession and they had these trading classes at the investment banks back then.

6:47you know, uh, uh, and it was banking and trading. And I thought, well, okay, I'll, you know, apply for a few of these. This seems like a good place to start. And they, the trading, the training classes for trading had dropped from like a hundred people to almost none. And so, um, there was a firm doesn't exist anymore, kid or Peabody. And, uh, I was the one person that they hired in 1991 for the training class. And I thought I was going to get there with 50 people or whatever. And it was just me. And the guy who was there, the guy who was the head there just said, you know, why don't you like go sit somewhere on the floor and come back to me and, you know, after a few months and tell me like what you're interested in kind of thing.

7:41So I sort of devised my own schedule. This was an advantage of being at Brown where we didn't have any requirements, thank goodness. And I could come up with my own schedule. Curriculum, your own, yeah. Yeah, curriculum, everything. So I would spend the mornings out on the trading floor and then I would go back into the back room and read for four, five, six hours. And no one was guiding or telling me what to do. And, you know, I spent a month on the treasury desk. Then I was a month or two sitting on the CMO desk. That was Mike Vranos. He was the CMO king of Wall Street at the time. I never forget because there was an empty seat on the, on his desk, on like the CMO mortgage back trading desk.

8:31And no one was sitting there. And I was like, oh, I'll just sit here. But that was the seat next to Mike, who is like the king of CMOs on Wall Street. and no one wanted to sit in the seat next to him. He was hollering and this and that. And I'll never forget, I sat down there and he looked up at me and he looked over at me. I guess he just noticed I was sitting in this seat. And he said, who the F are you? And what are you doing sitting in this seat? And I said to him, well, his boss, I said, told me to sit here. and you know i said because that was the guy who told me to go find somewhere to sit i said oh yeah you know ed told me to sit here and he's like oh okay he's like yeah i'm uh i'm just new here and i'm supposed to observe and like learn stuff and he's like okay well there's a lot to learn here and then that was it right so i i uh there are a lot of funny things like every other guy is probably like incredulous that that like the sort of trainee gets the seat.

9:36Yeah, I was too young and inexperienced to know better. And then they thought I might be a good CMO structure. You know, you chop up the mortgage-backed securities, but I really wanted to be in trading. And so I ended up taking a seat on this treasury desk and sitting next to a really nice guy um who i became very friendly with who in fact i am still friendly with and who i even spoke with just yesterday um believe it or not and he was a bond trader there and um very nice guy had had gone to harvard was there for six years was a wrestler was captain of the wrestling team there and we just started talking and again i had come at things from a very sort of abstract viewpoint and I had done a lot of reading.

10:31He had done a lot of, you know, market meeting, treasury bonds and T-bills, but I was, you know, a little more abstract. And I remember saying to him, you know, like, this isn't really that interesting here. And there you go. You can imagine a guy right out of college and like, who the hell does this guy think he is? He said, I was like, you know, this just doesn't seem that interesting. I said, well, why aren't you, I said, why aren't you at a firm like Soros? Because, right, that for me was what trading was, you know, you know, and there were a few firms like Soros and Tiger was one of them.

11:06And six months later, that guy became the head trader, execution trader in macro at Tiger. and we had been talking about it of course and you know he'd been there six years and tiger was just moving into macro and then six months later he hired me and i became the european bond and currency uh trader and i ended up working for the two uh you know partners above me. I was 24, I guess. And those guys were in their early thirties, which now seems like, you know, just hysterical because I thought at the time they were so, you know, so old, right? Oh my God. 10 years older than me. And I, there's a big difference between 24 and 30.

12:04There is though. There is. I know. And so I worked for these two guys at Tiger and just learned a phenomenal amount immediately was just, I would say, probably the defining experience of my looking back on it. I had one more, but really of my career, because the analytical methodology, the way the narrative of an investment gets scripted, the research behind an investment idea, what the sort of thorough digging that's behind making a judgment, all those things were things that the analysts did at Tiger. And I wasn't an equity analyst. So 95 % of the firm or 90 % from all the Tiger Cubs, they're all equity portfolio managers, the very famous guys that people read about, Lee Ainsley, Steve Mandel.

13:05you know, the guys up on the Mount Rushmore. And I was in this quirky little new group with essentially three people, me, the two senior partners, and there was one other guy. And then there was a woman as well. But I was sort of the number, you know, the guy who was tasked with coming in at three in the morning to be the European bond and currency guy. And, you know, it was crazy. no one else obviously wanted that job. Um, and as a 24 old guy, I, you know, I routinely had stayed, you know, pulled all nighters in college and had lots of energy for me. This was no problem. I mean, to work at tiger, uh, you know, that was, you know, it wasn't Soros, right.

13:55Which I had thought at the time was like the only really great trading place for to go um and but it was close it was pretty damn good exactly it was it was very close and in a lot of ways i think it was a lot better um you know in retrospect but you know funnily enough they still put me through about 20 rounds of interviews if you can imagine like this is a real firm and you know you're to meet almost every single p.m. or person there it just was strange for a very junior role at the time but what happened they weren't fooling around was that and I know and the last one was Julian um and you know but what happened was I sort of got lucky because um they knew activity was picking up in Europe and they knew they needed someone to man the helm uh in those hours and of Of course, that was the beginning of the ERM crisis.

14:57Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

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16:09I was going to say they probably went through such a, I was just thinking about that when you said it, they probably went through such a rigorous interview process because they could see that they needed, you know, it, this was not a throwaway position. This was going to be something that they were building. I don't know. I think it was, I think I may be the only guy who applied for it. They still had to make sure you weren't crazy. Yeah. I don't, I don't know. I don't know, but that was all of a sudden, like within, you know, a month or two, you know we just had the pound break out of the ERM and the first currency trade I ever did for Julian and my two bosses there above me was the breaking of the Irish punt out of the exchange rate mechanism it was it was very easy.

17:05This is Julian Robertson right for those who are Less familiar with the history. He's legendary, legendary traders and investors and managers. Yeah, it was so strange because, you know, the pound had broken against the DMARC, so it had collapsed in value. But the Irish punt, which everyone had forgotten about, was still pegged to the DMARC. By the way, this is the world, folks, before the euro, when there was a massive amount of currencies, there was a massive amount of activity and cross-trade, and this was a different time. Yeah. Yeah, but listen to how, in a way, and I don't want to say how easy this trade was because it wasn't, but the pound had devalued massively against the demark, but the punt was still pegged because they were trying to peg the currencies.

17:56But all of Ireland's trade was with the UK, not with Europe so much. So what happened was the Irish economy started to collapse. Currency was way too strong. So Julian and the two guys I worked for and a few other guys, Julian had quite a few outside analysts as well, said that we have to short this point. and I'd never even heard of the point. And someone said to me, Dan, could you go out and find some liquidity? And I'm thinking, this is just crazy. So I call all my guys up. Now, listen, I'm 24 years old and this is the strangest thing. All of a sudden, I'm the number one client on the buy side for Credit Suisse or number two, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs.

18:54Did you realize that and like the implications of that at the time? Or were you just kind of like just doing what was in front of me? No, I was sucking from a fire hose. I was just, I was just like praying for survival. Hang on, right. You know, working, you know, 10, 12 hours a day, massive positions on that we had. No, I, I, but I did notice that when I called somebody up, they did something, they moved right away. And I got used to that. You know, some people would say, you know, Dan, that was a plus and a minus because for my first real job, I got used to being at the very, very top of the hill.

19:36And having power. And having power. Yeah. Yeah. Which is not a permanent position. At age 24, you know, you go through ups and downs there. But my first experience was I was representing Julian, and that was a huge bat to wave. And so I called up my Credit Suisse guys, and I said, guys, listen, this is 1992, late 92 or early 93. It's in that period. And I said, listen, we want to sort some Irish pun. Can we even do that? Like, you know what else you don't read about it. And one of the guys, this very crafty English guy says to me, listen, I think I've got a direct line into the central bank. And so I was like, really for liquidity.

20:27So all of a sudden we start doing twenty five, fifty million dollars, one hundred million dollars. And and I say to Julian, I'm like, I think I've got a line in the central bank. what does that mean? I said, well, it means for now we can do sort of as much as you want to do. So they're like, let's do 400 million. Okay. There was no$400 of Mark Punt. So there was nobody in the world who had like that kind of size position. So all of a sudden we start selling and you know we start pressuring it a little bit and i'm watching this thing on the screen like the forward points move out and all of a sudden people sending me messages like what's going on in the put i'm like well i have no idea you know i i don't know what's going on i you can't you know you couldn't talk about the position at all and so you know we finally were pressuring And then that salesman, he put basically the entire position on all 400.

21:33It was like with one guy, which must have been like the biggest trading commission. I think, you know, whatever, certainly in his career at the time, these are very large spreads. And we sat there with it for, you know, not too long. But the central bank realized that there was selling pressure there. But listen, it wasn't an attack by us in the sense that people in the marketplace might think about an attack. It was simply a fundamental bet that that currency was misvalued versus the British pound. It was not – it wasn't like, oh, we're out to get the Irish. No, I mean it had nothing to do with it.

22:17You bring up a really good – so there's a lot of things. Believe it or not, this isn't even your first trade. So we're going to – We haven't talked about any of the trade. We haven't gotten there yet, but we will, because I think this sets a really important scene about what was going on at the time, the type of bets that were happening. This is the sort of beginning of, you know, funds like Soros and Tiger and throwing weight around global financial markets now. What was possible? The leverage that was about? I mean, all of these things. And then also the headlines, right? Because you hear, and we still know today, you know, Soros broke the Bank of England.

22:53You know, there's a connotation to that. And so I think the, you know, the threads of all of what we saw through the great financial crisis, you know, the personalities that were assigned to what you say is just a mismatched valuation, there became a narrative behind that too, which is really interesting, I think. So yeah, that changed, those events changed so much, I think. Yeah, it was just fundamental sort of value-oriented investment. And opportunity, right? Yeah, we did our work and we realized that the peg didn't make sense and that if it stayed, that Ireland would fall into a deep depression.

23:40So no one wanted the depression. It just made sense that their currency should track the pounds. Yeah, it was going to happen. It was going to happen at some point. You were just on the first to realize it. It needed to happen. But you know what? The thing with macro is that, and I think Rudy Dornbusch, when I worked for Steinhardt Partners later on, he was our outside analyst for us. But Rudy, well-known MIT economist, used to say, you know, macro, it never happens when you expect it to happen. And then it happens all at once. And then it happens more quickly than you ever thought it would. Something like that.

24:22Yeah. I can't remember exactly. But, you know, and so, yeah, the punt needed to devalue, but it didn't necessarily have to within any certain period of time. Theoretically, it could have stayed pegged for six months, for a year. It could have, theoretically. It's just we thought that there was too much pressure building. And also we thought that the authorities would see the same thing we saw. hey, it doesn't make sense to maintain the put mark rate at this rate when the pound mark had changed so much. So anyway, then we put the trade on and I woke up one Saturday morning and I always used to wake up so early, obviously, because I was normally getting up at 3 a.m.

25:16and I never changed my, I never changed my sleeping pattern. So I would wake up on the weekends at like 5am. And that was like me sleeping in. And I would go down and every day for every day for like first, certainly 10 years of my career, I was, I would read the Financial Times. The Financial Times was really the Bible for a while. I don't think it's unfortunately so much so anymore, but, And I remember going to one of those machines, pulling out the FT, and on the front page of it, Irish punt devalues 10%. And I looked at that, and I thought, oh, my goodness, we just made$40 million. It was just in one day, like overnight on that trade.

26:03And, of course, there are many other trades in the portfolio, and this was not actually even that large a trade for us. Oh, my gosh. But it was a trade that I actually helped execute and found the liquidity for and facilitated. Right. So now you're in. Yeah. It was just the first trade that I felt like I was really a part of. Yeah. I'm not, would never clean credit. That was Julian and my two. But you're on the inside now of these type of, of these type of trades and at that level of what's happening. Yeah. I mean, it's like I was the mechanic changing the tire, you know. Finding the parts. Finding the necessary parts to get it going.

26:47We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

26:58So I think that's a great setup to jump into your trades because you obviously have manifested to the – really your dream job or your goal as you're coming out, you find yourself there. You now know you're at this sort of, I don't want to say inner circle of power brokers of finance, but yes, that is essentially what was going on. You're operating and participating in these massive trades that are making front page news. So there's already very quickly a level of success. So we're going to go through now some of the good trades and bad trades, and we're going to go chronologically, even though we talked about whether to do that or not.

27:37But I think it makes sense that we're going to do it. So the first one is a bad trade. And that is in 1994. And that involves Japanese bonds. So there's going to be a theme of global events, I think, in some of these. And that's the Japanese bonds wipeout. So set the scene for us here. Are you still at Tiger? Are you someplace else? What's going on in your career at this point? Yeah. So in 1993, the biggest bet, and this is the bet that made all of the famous macro managers, I would say, their first gigantic hit. So as much of it, and this was the collapse in the interest rates in Europe, US, and Japan.

28:27And I think every, you know, Julian Soros, Lou Bacon, Tudor, they all made over a billion dollars, like personally, not in like their funds. I think personally, I can't, I don't remember exactly, but it was the trade that provided the liquidity for, you know, this sort of kicked off the golden age of macro, really. and in 93, I had mentioned one of the trades we didn't put down, but long Spanish bonds. And I remember they rallied pretty much straight line 20 points. I mean, to have 20 points, have a bond future go up 20 points in a straight line, pretty incredible. And rates went down in two-year notes in the U.S.

29:21to about 3%. They were eight in 1991. They went down three. And in Japan, of course, 89, 90 was the popping of the bubble. And Japan then went into a, I don't know, a 30-year slump, coma. But it was clear at the time, and I was still a tiger, that the Japanese economy was going to be in big trouble. And the rates there came down. Again, I think they were, they didn't, this was a, they came down, you know, five, six hundred basis points in a very short period of time. in 1993. And it started in 91 and then 92, 93, because the popping of that bubble necessarily meant that equity values were weak and that there was going to be a negative period.

30:22The 80s boom was over and it was a very clear bet. And the data coming out of Japan, I remember looking at in 93. I'd been long Japanese bonds. Tiger had been long more in 91, 92, and then had moved to focus on Europe in 93. That's what I was doing there because that bet was even clearer and hadn't moved yet. So I'd had all of these in my own account. I'd had all of these Japanese bond calls on bond futures on and they also went up dramatically and in 1993 as I said every manager in the world had a huge had a huge run myself included I was very active at that time in my own personal account and at the time you could these were bonds there was no you know ruling as long as you told you know your boss you were buying them you could buy them there was no You can't front run a bond, right, a future.

31:26Like the liquidity is nearly infinite. I was not buying that much. Anyway, so I did very well for myself in 1993 outside of the funds that I worked at. And I had made, just say it was thousands of percent return. And it was not on a small number. so it was a very i i i sort of hit it well right away you know right out of school i made a lot right away it was maybe a little too much of a confidence boost maybe a little too early but it happened i had a lot of conviction i did a lot of work and i had i was comfortable with a lot of leverage especially using call calls and um so uh i had massive leverage on in these long these jgb calls japanese government bond calls and i sort of stayed with it because the data through 94 because the data had stayed weak but then the fed in march of 94 started to raise interest rates, right?

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32:36And I still had my massive long in, not in the European bonds that I'd had, but in the Japanese bonds. Thankfully, I had these call options and the calls within about a week or two in the middle of 94 went to zero. So it ended up being that I'd lost about 50 % of everything I'd made in the previous year. Wow. So within a week, literally it was a week. They went to zero almost immediately. And I held them. And so I was completely mortified. It was very early. It was my first really big trading loss. I had done the victory dance celebration, just like any, I guess in, in, in 93, I would have been 25, you know, shedding down to Miami, doing all that kind of crazy, stupid stuff you do, you know, with the, the big apartment overlooking the central park and the whole, the whole thing.

33:44Okay. It's dumb as you can imagine. I, you know, I, I didn't go completely overboard, but I'm just saying, I was definitely very confident and I'd done it myself and sort of these interesting different ways um it wasn't uh and i just thought okay look i was excited i came out of school and this is i felt like naturally this was something i was going to be good at and you know it was proven to be the case until i got wiped out in 94 and i still had made you know i If I hadn't had call options and I'd stayed with it, I would have been completely wiped out. But I knew risk management. It was a big enough haircut that it hit.

34:32It was a big enough haircut even though you didn't get completely wiped out. It was a big enough loss that it – No, no, no. It was massive. You lose 50 % of what you made in over a year in a week. It just, I didn't, literally, I did not say a word for like, felt like three months. I did not literally speak. I was just so shocked that I'd completely missed it and gotten sideswiped and that the fundamental analysis I'd done was just not relevant. The market turned and the Japanese economy could be in complete meltdown and it wouldn't matter. It got priced in. And when the market prices something in, it's obvious.

35:18Everything that I thought in March of 93 about Japan was more true in March of 94, but it didn't matter. It got priced in. The market sought. So very important early lesson that, you know, it's not really necessarily about what is your opinion or your view of the fundamentals. It's only important, your view and your analysis is only important versus what the market has priced. And so there are all sorts of signs of euphoria. And obviously, my situation, March of 93 was very different from March of 94. And it was just like today, I mean, I don't want to say I laugh at it, but I mean, it's very obvious, right?

36:07That things had moved a long way. That was enough. I wasn't going to get another, you know, 400 basis point drop in the following year. Right. And again, I did cut back a little bit and I did have those calls. But it was it was an important lesson also in risk management that, you know, those calls protected me in some way. I knew that always there was a lot of risk. I was massively leveraged. I really was. I mean, like it was like 50 to one. I was leveraged 50 times, something like that. We talk about risk of leverage all the time these days because people are continuing to learn that lesson the hard way.

36:49Yeah, yeah. Again, but because the risk was defined, it didn't matter that it was 50 times to me. I was like, okay, I didn't think that those calls would go to zero. But if they did, I could still live and function. Well, I didn't actually really function. That wasn't actually accurate. I was like for several months, like nearly catatonic. And I went back over the trade a hundred different times. What did I miss? How did I miss it? You know, I didn't do a trade for the rest of the year. Did anybody ask about that or ask why? You mean for your own personal account, you didn't do a trade or for at work too?

37:38Yeah. No, at work, I had one trade. It was very small. My activity just dropped off completely. Did anybody ask about it? Did people ask what was going on with you? Well, so in 94, many of the large guys got destroyed. Like Michael Steinhardt, I think, who had made, call it, you know, 50, 60, 70 % in 93, was down 30 % in 94. So in 1994, the two-year note went from three into March of 95 went to eight. So the movement in the two-year from three to eight was the largest bond market correction since 1929. I think the long bond correction, I mean, it was, I can't remember the exact numbers on the long bond at the time or the 10-year note, but the funds rate went up to eight.

38:32The two-year note went up to eight from three. and many people got completely wiped out. And then, of course, Mexico also got wiped out. And Bob Rubin came in and basically helped restructure some of their oil revenues in March of 95. That was the Mexican, the Fed hiking program wiping out the weaker countries out there at the time, Mexico. So it wasn't just me. I just got wiped out right away. It took another year. Everybody else is nursing their ruins. Nobody noticed that you were sitting there not putting a train on. No one noticed because there were much bigger problems happening and many people were, you know, but for me personally, it was impossible.

39:21I mean, it was very difficult, but it made me also realize the importance of having a little bit of that downside protection always, even if you have maximum conviction in your analysis. Yeah. I mean, these are the lessons hard learned. So your second trade is one of your best, and it's a few years later. So this is in 1997, the Asian devaluation. I love that you sent in the email, 1997, Thai bought Asian devaluation. Everyone else calls it the Asian financial crisis. So we had a hint even before I looked that it was one of your better trades because you referred to it as the devaluation. But you obviously were able to come out of that catatomic state, but you had that lesson in your pocket.

40:10I'm assuming that helps now as you're moving forward thinking about this. But walk us through. So where are you now? Are you at Tiger? Are you someplace else? No, I left and I ended up going to work for Michael Steinhardt, who was a competitor. And I was head of macro research there. Actually, with one of the senior, so the partner I'd worked with at Tiger, I ended up with him. And there was another guy who joined us. It was the three of us doing macro for Michael. And Michael retired in 1995. And I went to go work for, I took some time off, and I went to go work for what at the time was the largest Asian hedge fund.

40:57It was the first Asian hedge fund ever started called Sofair Capital. And it was a billion dollars in 1996. It was a pretty big fund. And he was a very, I thought, very smart, very good investor. And he basically, I said, look, it's time for me to have my own track record. So none of this just in my personal account. So I said, look, I was looking for a position where I could have my own separate account, and then I would run macro for the whole fund. And so he was doing mostly long-short equity in Asia and around the world. And that's what the whole team was doing, and I was going to do the macro part of it.

41:40And so what happened in early 97 was that the economies in Asia had really come under pressure. You know, I don't know if it was necessarily a delayed impact of the Fed raising, but the Southeast Asian economies, it was called the, what was it, the tiger miracle or something, the tiger in the early 90s. And they had big, big booms into 92, 93. And then the economies weakened substantially. And then by early 97, they were really weakening. And interestingly, those currencies were still pegged to the dollar. It was sort of a vestige of a time like, I guess, in the 60s and 70s when those countries didn't have the ability to manage their own currency policies.

42:37And, you know, they were still pegged to the dollar. They outsourced their monetary policy to us. And we saw that. And the dollar, TyBot rate, again, it was like the ERM crisis. So this was a bet that was easy in a way for me to see because I was in on the front lines of the peg breaks during the ERM crisis. And so I thought, this is the exact same thing. The tie bought valuation is much, much too rich versus where it needs to be. And the dollar had gone up a lot against the yen. And so what happened was it was exactly like the pound punt trade. The yen had weakened a lot against the bot. It had weakened a lot against the ringgit, all of those Asian currencies.

43:30And so they were getting destroyed because their trading, their export revenues had collapsed versus other currencies that had weakened against the dollar. because when the Fed raised rates dramatically in 94, that caused the dollar to go up a lot. But if you were pegged to the dollar, that meant your currency also went up a lot. It's amazing it played out almost the same way. It did. So if your country was in a recession and all of a sudden your currency went up 20 % against a competitor, you knew that wasn't going to be a, right, That was going to be not going to last. So what did I do? I said to Michael, so fair at the time, end of 96, early 97.

44:22I said, this is like the arm. I wrote up one of my like 10 page analyses. Cause I used to, this is from the tiger days and my history background. I used to write up the thesis. So I said, look, we need to have a hundred million dollar tie bought on. and these are the reasons and i remember i i wrote these pieces i probably still have them for every single currency i went through fundamental analysis explaining why it needed to be back and because i was gonna i did some in my own account for the fund so i had my own separate account and then i did some for the bigger fund and um it was interesting because it didn't cost anything to be long the dollar short the tie bob it was only the interest rate differential.

45:12So when you bought dollar, sold TyBot one year forward, the cost of carry, the negative cost of carry was one percentage point. And I was making the case that TyBot needed to go down 20 to 30%. So just think about that trade. You're going to risk losing 1 % to make 20 or 30. That was the best trade I'd ever seen in my career up until that point. So in February or March, somewhere around that time, I put on a one-year dollar tie bot forward. And I just sat there and I said to Michael, I said, you know what? I'm going to come in at 9 p.m. at night and I'm going to work from 9 p.m. till 5 a.m. That's going to be my work schedule because I need to be there to live this.

46:05and I was 27 or whatever it was, uh, and not married, uh, just starting to have a girlfriend who ended up being my wife, still my wife after 24 years. And she can remember this. She could put up with that schedule. That's a good, a good early vacation. Yeah. She put up with that schedule. She put up with a lot more also. Um, and they thought, probably thought I was nuts because Michael and his brother, you know, Philip, it was their fun. And, um, they're like, Holy, what do we do getting this crazy guy here? But this guy's going to make us some money. Hopefully. So we got on this dollar tie bot and we just sat there.

46:51And then all of a sudden pressure started built. I started talking to people about the thesis. I like circulated my memo that I wrote. It was just a, It was an idea. And then all of a sudden, a lot of guys started coming in. Like, wow, risk one to make 20. Ooh, right. That's a macro trade. And our max loss would be one. Yeah. Like, max love having a defined bottom because then you create the asymmetry, right? And so I sat there and I had a few other ones, but I was really just sitting there in the middle of the night with one dollar tie bot that was pegged watching and waiting. And then the pressure started to build and the forward started to move out.

47:38So then there were so many people doing it that it ended up costing, you know, 2%, 3%. People were still doing it. They're like, oh, 4%. So it's like, I'll risk 4 % to make, you know, 20 or 30%. This is fundamentally undervalued. And what was happening at the time, like you're saying, like, what was I doing in the middle of the night? The central bank was allowing capital exodus. So what happened was the short term currency reserves of the central bank were getting down to very low levels. Gap of flight. Like lower than two or three months. And so if some very small portion of capital flight started to happen, like Thai people pulling their money out, it would create a situation where the central bank didn't have enough reserves on hand to allow that exodus.

48:44So that was the linchpin. That was the linchpin, the fulcrum in a way. That was the point. And once you knew it went beyond a certain level, it was game over. And so I was sitting there, believe it or not, on July 4th. I'll never forget this. In the middle of the night, 1997, in my T-shirt, in the office we shared with Morgan Stanley Asset Management. It was Barton Biggs. I was very good friends with Michael. and I had a little office, it wasn't even an office, it was more like a little cubby hole there. And all of a sudden it prints across the tape, tied back on pegs. And we made, I don't know, within like a week or two weeks, it was like 50 million bucks or something like that.

49:34And then we ended up shorting over the duration of the year, all of the other currencies that were still pegged that needed to de-pay. So the ringgit, the rupiah, the sing dollar wasn't pegged, but it was going down. It was just dominoes. I remember it was just dominoes. Yeah. And the big one, I had two other big ones. I bought these puts on the Indonesian rupiah at a four vol, but I bought the puts and they ended up going up 18 times. like the value, right? You saw this because you were doing the, you were doing the, you were doing the, this, you saw sort of history rhyming. Correct. Did other people, I'm surprised it wasn't more crowded because did other people sort of see the correlation or were they just not looking in that part of the world?

50:31It's a little bit of both, but a lot of people, the macro, the New York macro community saw it. You know, my friend, by the way, who I'd worked with for the first five years of my career. The guy who I mentioned hired me at Tiger. He ended up working at Lou Bacon's firm, Moore Capital. And he and I, like, I don't know if I got him into the trade. I don't even know. But he ended up doing the trade really big for Lewis. So that was one guy that had it. I think they all had it. I think Julian, you know, I wasn't in conversation with Julian, but I'm pretty sure they had the Taibati Val. Soros, probably.

51:19I ended up working for Druck later on, and I remember him saying something about having it. But then he went the other way on the ringgit for some reason. He had some analysts who thought he should be long the ringgit, the Malaysian ringgit. So he lost a chunk on that. But I, it was, you know, I tend to be very concentrated and focused on opportunities that I think are really clear where there's a lot of asymmetry. So I didn't do anything else. I didn't have anything else. I didn't care about anything else. We just shorted every single currency. And our fund was the only Asian fund in the world that was up in 97 because in 97, the Asian stock markets went down like massively, 30, 40, 15%.

52:06I don't remember. There's a ripple effect through all that, which impacted so many, even if they saw it coming. So clearly your confidence is back by now, fully recovered. I mean, it didn't take three years. My confidence came back in 95 when the fundamentals in Japan, I know we don't want to go back to this, but the fundamental view that I'd had in 93 that I thought was right, that got sidetracked in 94, actually reasserted itself in 1995. I thought that Japanese rates needed to go to zero in 1993. You were just early. So it just took 10 years or longer to happen. They eventually did go to zero and stayed there for a long time.

52:53So I want to move, picking up on being concentrated and really focusing where you see opportunity. So your third one is one of your worst trades. It's a 2008. And this is so interesting. It's a VC investment in an avatar metaverse company. This is so interesting because of course, everybody knows away what was going on in the focus. So we're, you know, sort of in the beginning of the financial crisis and you're already in that part of the world or you're just beginning to get interested. Talk to us about that one. Yeah. So 07, 06, 07 was a very good year for me. I was, then I had moved to focusing on agriculture and grains and starting in 05, 06, I'm sorry, 06.

53:39And it had a pretty nice windfall in a bunch of investments, had a great years and end of 06, 07. And even 08 ended up being a great year for me too. And a friend of mine came to me and said, look, I've got this, uh, you know, investment that I'm doing in this company and it's a metaverse and you go into, you have your avatar and, uh, you can like, I'm like, so what do you do? Well, you can hang out like in a room together and talk and people with similar, you know, uh, hobbies can, can talk and do this and that so he's like you got to come down and again i'd made a decent chunk of money and people were always coming to me for you know for investments you know they were suggesting you know coming to me with their business ideas etc so this is a good friend of mine who incidentally he and i had done a trade together before in the grain related thing that had we'd made seven x in three months which is sort of my biggest, shortest term hit up until the time.

54:53So we'd had a good rapport, right? It wasn't just like somebody saying, hey, come look at this company. This is a guy who I respected, made a lot of homework, who together with me, we both made this 7X in a three-month period. This is while I was at SAC Capital in the early 2000s. And so he says, you've got to come look at this business. So I went down, I looked at it. and again I hadn't made too many private investments at the time but I looked at the thing and I was like wow this is really interesting I could see people from all around the world so I said you're telling me people from all around the world can get together in this living room and they can all talk about like cars that they like to drive so it was that kind of functionality the avatars are a little clunky but I was like this is really cool and I sat down with a guy I need the CEO and he seemed like a decent guy.

55:52And I asked him about the financials. Right. And he's like, well, you know, it's been a little rough period for us, but we just need some money to like get through this little rough period. And then we have this big deal. So I said, okay, all right. And I was like, well, you know, I wanted to see the financials. And just to, you know, you've got to have some books, audited record. Anyway, he kept hemming and hawing about that. And my friend was the single largest owner, outside owner, my friend, who I had done these deals with. And he's like, Dan, it's fine. It's all good. And I don't think he misled me.

56:34I just think that maybe he didn't know. I don't know. Anyway, the bottom line is I ended up making an investment in this company and it was only a few percentage points of the business that I ended up owning. And I never got to see the financials. And I completely trusted my friend who had a much larger position, had millions in it. And this is the guy that I had made a 7X. So I made my investment. And then all of a sudden, a month later, I called him to try to speak with him. and like he wouldn't answer the phone, things aren't, whatever. I couldn't reach him. And then he basically, you know, I finally got him and he's like, well, you know, we're done.

57:28It's over. We're closing. And I was like, well, what do you mean you're closing? I just gave you this chunk of money a month ago. He's like, yeah, well, we couldn't get any money from anybody else and we don't have enough to run and we're just going to close. And I was like, oh, my God, you just defrauded me because you knew you were going to go under. And maybe my friend didn't know. He probably had some inkling. But I was like, the money was gone. Zero. And I didn't sue him. I don't do that. I mean, I leave that for sort of, you know, that's not a way to live happily or successfully. Yeah. But it's interesting because you had such a process and research things like that.

58:23That's the way you operate. And then this one time you just kind of didn't follow your own rules, right? Yeah. It was a little bit of a different area for me. It wasn't macro. It was a little macro in some ways because it was this very big picture idea, but he was building this product. And again, I was maybe living like a little too confident from all my gains in the previous year. And I was like, ah, it didn't matter. It wasn't such a huge amount in a sense. It didn't change my life at all, of course. but it was really a wake up call that well you don't do that again you know you don't you know not only not go through your process but that excessive trust on one character also who was my friend was not a great idea and the guy just straight out lied to me and um So I have a pretty good sense when someone is just lying to me because there's a lot of misleading and lying going on.

59:35I still make mistakes. I still make mistakes.

59:42It's difficult. There are a lot of misleaders out there, people who kind of suggest. There's a lot of desperation, right? Like someone's reluctant to give up their dream. And so they, they think they're manifesting the future, you know, and. Right. Right. And I don't know if you ever are able to completely scrub that out. I mean, I, we can talk about this later on, but I mean, I, in my current business, in, in the digital asset ecosystem world, I passed on over, you know, over a hundred deals in the last two, three years. I passed on FTX three times. I passed on BlockFi, passed on Celsius, you know, but we have two companies in our portfolio.

1:00:40I mean, it was less than 5 % of AUM combined, but I had to go to zero. And both the cases were guys essentially, you know, misled. And it's two out of 26. So it's sort of the nature of any investing or trading. You have your winners and you hope that they run high, and then you're inevitably going to have things that don't work out, whether it's the founders or it's just the timing or it's too early. That's the nature of VC investing, I suppose. Which, by the way, I'm going to switch things up. Hold on one second. That is not exactly right. Like, meaning that you can make an investment and, okay, the cycle turns, the growth goes down, whatever it is.

1:01:26But fraudulent behavior is, and it exists in the current space. losing money as a result of that is not the same as losing money because you were early or because you know, these two cases now often they're connected. Okay. I get that. But I just saying even now after 30 years plus of making investments in trading, I, you know, I relied on somebody internally on those two investments. I probably didn't do as much work as I should have myself. And this is the problem is that, and I've removed both of those people from anything I'm doing in the future. But look, it's my responsibility. I run the fund.

1:02:26All investments are my responsibility. I have final decision-making on everything. So I never blame anybody else. It's my fault. But, you know, had I done the full work, you know, maybe I would have missed it. Maybe not. There were things that were bugging me about these two investments. My only point is that even after all these years, right, and remembering that 08 experience. experience. And again, this guy didn't blow up because of the financial crisis in 08 had nothing to do with that. It was just a straight out fraud. He knew he was going under and he took my money to pay himself back some money before he announced that he was going under.

1:03:16Right. And I, I, I, I, I relied on someone else's judgment a little too much. Right. The balancing point, and this is an interesting one, and I'll stop after this, is that, you know, if you're to grow to a certain point, you have to have a team. You have to be able to rely on the team. You know, Warren Buffett, when he makes an investment, it's not just him doing all the work. He has a team of people who he respects and trusts. And you need that. You can't do everything yourself. Right. And so, yes, a very big part of this is partnering and having the right people working for you. But even after 30 years, you still can make that mistake.

1:04:09So they just have to try to structure your portfolio in a way where if that does happen, it minimize you have the loss is not a cataclysmic. It's a loss within a portfolio. So those two things were 5 % of total AUM. So it didn't, you know, so, so meaning like even after 30 years, you need to protect yourself, even when you're investing in things that you love. That's right. And listen to your gut. And for the people on the other side, don't be an idiot and burn bridges because if you're operating in a straightforward way and being honest with your investor, you're going to suffer the consequences of that, which you didn't sue, but certainly many others could have pursued it that way.

1:05:05So you really need to try to keep that moral compass, I think. I want to, for your fourth trade, switch things up a little bit because we're going to do another one of your best. Long Gold was in there in 2009, but I actually want to, since we were just talking about this early foray, I want to do the fourth one as the best one, which is starting 10T. because it's so interesting having heard your whole journey through macro, being at a front row of not only some of the biggest trades that went down and profits that were made, but also this sort of, you know, running in the circles of the names that are now legendary and working with them alongside them.

1:05:46You've kind of shifted your focus and are really concentrating on this digital space. So talk to me about launching Tenti. Why does that feel like one of your best ones yet? Well, it is the biggest macro trade of all time. The growth in the digital asset ecosystem and the broader general adoption of Bitcoin, I think it's something that's outside the existing macro world. And so all the bets I did, and again, starting the gold company, GBI, the company Druckenmiller and I launched together, Agcoa, which was a farmland reed. I sort of moved from just trading in liquid markets to starting businesses because the risk reward, the asymmetry of the bet in starting a business is much greater than in just doing a trade.

1:06:51And also I'm more of a long-term investor and it's much easier from a lot of different standpoints to structure a bet within an operating business. Um, but so, you know, the experiences that I've talked about in the beginning, this idea of being able to sit through volatility, um, being able to, um, build a sort of broad diversified portfolio. those are very important things we didn't talk about my experience with ag coa which is a diversified portfolio of farms um that was built and ended up becoming the largest private farmland in the u.s and we ended up selling 2013 but the structure of the investment the structure of 10t how it exists, this fund with 24 different companies, the way that it's put together is, in a way, it's built to optimize and leverage to the greatest degree the upside while having a control on the downside.

1:08:19and this space is the most difficult that's ever existed. This trading cryptocurrency, not just Bitcoin, ETH, but like all of these other various things, this is, in my view, 10X more difficult than trading the euro. So the structure of 10T exists. it comes right out of my background in terms of trying to create this asymmetry where you have a limit on your downside, but then you are participating in the upside. I think that the volatility in Bitcoin, ETH, the whole space doesn't exist in the old world. It doesn't, you don't have an asset that goes up, you know, 20 X and then drops 90%, 20 X 90%.

1:09:13It's a whole, you know, it's a whole new world that's being built here. It is literally the digitization of money. And I always say like the internet was the digitization of ideas and information. This is the digitization of money value. And then it's something well beyond that. This whole concept that I talked with Raul about back in 2019, this truesmith machine concept, it's a permanent ledger that can't be distorted. And so when you start to think about what is a permanent ledger, digital ledger that can't be manipulated or distorted, like what's the value of that and how applicable is that to almost everything that we do?

1:09:54You know, maybe, you know, maybe it can help remove the odds that you deal with fraudulent people or fraudulent things. Let me ask you, so I can see how this is this sort of new world connecting back to your idea that you create a thesis, you get conviction, you study these things, you're all in it intellectually. do you feel that your gut and all the experience you learned from these massive macro trades, do you feel like that process, you can bring that process into this chapter and this trade that you're in the midst of? Yeah, 10T doesn't exist at all without my previous background. It's not something that, like we are right now, as far as I know, the only growth equity fund in the world.

1:10:50exclusively focused on crypto blockchain, Web3 digital assets. It shouldn't be that just some old time macro guy is the only guy focusing on this. Where are all the other, like the growth equity guys, the crossover guys, where are the guys from the KKRs or Blackstone or Silver Lake? But it's a very strange area because it's very interdisciplinary. in there. And you need to understand macro and currency and monetary policy and cryptography and coding and tech. And it's just, it's so many different things. So you really have to be, you know, you have to be able to think creatively about like, what could the future look like?

1:11:39And do you believe in that future? And that took me a lot of work to get to this point, right? It took me, it took me a lot of work. And so maybe in some ways, the strategy is unique to my background, but it's not exactly because you have people like, you know, Dan Moorhead, Mike Novogratz. These are guys my age who were earlier than me to the space. Mike is Galaxy, of course, Dan, very successful, Pantera. And these are guys who had that macro analytical framework and they got and now they're all in on the space just like me because what you realize is oh my goodness all that stuff that we used to do and those guys did many of the similar bets that i did that's like a horse and buggy situation right like the old macro i mean you can still make money there those guys are very successful but it's really the old way and the opportunity set in the new world is so huge.

1:12:42The only caveat is, as I said, the greatest macro investment trade of all time, but there's a caveat, is that it comes with crippling volatility that human beings aren't really normally used to. And so the structure of 10T and the investments that we've made in the fund, the way we've diversified it and the structure of the actual equity that we own puts us in a position to weather that volatility and then also participate on the upside. So I would say I certainly had, there's no chance I could have come up with this. It comes right out of my experience with early macro trading in the 90s and then building Agco and GBI.

1:13:34And I'm not even saying it's the best structure. There are funds that are going to outperform us, but it is the only thing I could do to get myself to a place here where I felt comfortable bringing in outside investors. It's amazing. And when you put it that way, I just get the sense that the sort of Brown University graduate who is studying history and philosophy and writing these theses in his 20s is sort of applauding and has a front row seat to this. It sort of feels like that. So it's a fantastic arc. Dan, you have so many trades and so many stories that's like impossible. We really need three hours.

1:14:13So maybe we'll have to have you back for another one. But it's been an amazing conversation. Thank you so much. My pleasure. Thank you. We hope you enjoyed this episode. At Real Vision, we arm you with the expert knowledge, time-efficient tools, and a powerful network to help you succeed on your financial journey. Get a taste of financial freedom with our free offer at realvision.com forward slash free.

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Dan Tapiero, founder, CEO, and CIO of 10T Holdings, joins Maggie Lake to take us on a fascinating journey from his childhood in New York City to a career in high-stakes trading alongside investment legends like Julian Robertson. Dan shares the four trades that defined his career and what he's learned in the most dynamic trading environments over the last 30-plus years.Show less
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