Real Vision's Birthday Special

0:02Hey, everyone. If you like this podcast, go behind the paywall to get privileged access to the smartest minds in finance. Visit realvision.com slash RVpod and use the promo code podcast10. That's podcast10 to get 10 % off our essential membership for the first year. Join the Real Vision community and learn how to become a better investor. And now to the top analysis of today's markets. Hi, everyone. Welcome to this special birthday edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing. I've got the whole gang here with me today. Rao Powell, Samuel Burke, Ash Bennington, And Nico, I'm going to try this, Nico.

0:40No. We're close. Close. I tried, Dad. I tried. But it's great to see you all. Welcome, everybody. Good to be here, Maggie. Excited. We have so many people who could possibly go wrong. Famous last words. We're going to do our best to make sure this isn't chaotic. But we wanted to do this and have everyone come on because we're super excited. Real Vision turns nine years old today. And it's amazing because although so much has changed, we once again find ourselves in a really rocky period with the markets. U.S. stocks have been selling off over concerns about higher yields. We know they bounced around all over the place.

1:20They've been selling off this week, bounced around all over the place, managed to end mix. But there are a lot of concerns out there. People are worried about recession, energy, a sovereign bond crisis. And in some ways, Raoul, it feels like it's exactly the reason that you launched Real Vision in the first place. Yeah, it's exactly this. I mean, don't forget, we launched this hot on the heels of sovereign bond crisis in Europe. Now, it was different to this, but not different, right? These stresses and strains in the system were there and have been there since 2008. And that's not gone away. And we just knew where we launched the thing is we had to help as many people as possible navigate the complexities of the economic environment.

2:01And it's only got more complex as we've layered in this exponential technologies. We've layered in cryptocurrencies, and then we've layered in geopolitics in another way as well. So suddenly, the whole world's spinning faster and faster and faster, and you don't want to get thrown off. And that's really what we set up to do. I mean, if you remember, our very first video was coming out of the crisis, telling people we want to democratize the very best financial intelligence to level the playing field. Even in that first ever video, we featured Bitcoin and said, well, by the way, here's an answer as well for you.

2:35And we've gone through this. Over the nine years, somebody said, well, what's nine years in investing lives? It's like a million years. So much has happened over the nine years, from pandemics to countries blowing up to - War in Europe, like on the ground. I mean, unthinkable. Extraordinarily elections, we're polarizing people. I mean, The world is spinning faster and faster and faster. And now more than ever, we need a trusted source, a place where you can get valuable information and process it in your own way to fit your own framework. And then on top of that, I remember, we'll go through the story in a minute, the story of launching when we were launching the new platform.

3:24And here we are launching the new Real Vision platform where we've kind of hypercharged everything and said, not only do you need the information now, we need to help you turn that into knowledge and then wisdom by giving you the tools and incredible super network of people around the world. So again, we're trying to change the game, keep ahead of what's going on to help people navigate all of this. Yeah. And we're going to talk and we're going to try to take questions. We're going to try to do it all, talk a little bit about some of the transformation and why we're leaning into certain areas.

3:56Before we do all that, though, I just want to flag at the very beginning, it is our birthday, but we have a gift for all of you. So in honor of the big day, we are giving our YouTube audience access to our website for just$20.14. That's where most of what we're talking about today lives, not on this channel, on the website. So just go to www.realvision.com forward slash new. We're going to drop it in the links in the chats as well. But if you're listening on audio, if you are already a member, yes, you're going to get upgrade deals available and three gift memberships for you to get for free so you can invite people that you care about into our network as well.

4:37So all that's going to be in the chat and you can go to our website for more information. But I just want to flag that in the very beginning. Yeah. And these are really incredible deals. And we do this on our birthday from time to time because we want to make sure as we build out this new platform that we arm as many people as possible with the knowledge, tools and network to help them succeed in their financial journey. We're passionate about it. And that's why we just want you to come and check it out because it's a super cheap price. And this way you'll get it. And those of you who are already Real Vision members, as you said, Maggie, we want you to level up.

5:10We want you to get to that journey to wisdom as fast as possible and take control of your financial life. And we've got that, again, the knowledge, the tools and the network to succeed. And the more you go up the levels, the more power it will give you to level up. So we, of course, as always, have questions coming in. A couple of them are specific to the crypto world. I'll ask in a minute, but Ash, I feel like you've had a front seat from the very early days to a lot of the changes and transformation not real vision, but you've also seen all these market shifts, especially in the world of crypto.

5:47Yeah, absolutely. From the day that Raoul and I spun up the crypto platform a number of years ago, you know, it's still the only place right now where you can find natives of the crypto digital asset space, as well as macro global, you know, events and all of that in one place. It's the only place I can think of where I could do what I love to do, which is talk to people about macro issues, talk to people about markets and economics, and then simultaneously have a native discussion about digital assets, crypto, and all the things that have been happening, obviously, in that incredibly fast-moving space, Maggie.

6:20Yeah, that's true. By the way, I just realized the chat is blowing up. I think 6 ,000 members just got their invite to migrate onto the new platform. So I'm having a hard time keeping up with all the questions. And check your emails emails to see who's gone through on this 6 ,000. There was a couple of thousand went through before, so check your email, get onto the new platform, it's going to change your life. Yeah, but Raul, this is - And I just have to jump in then for one second, because we've been kind of shitting ourselves, haven't we? Are people going to like the new platform? How's that going to work?

6:52And we just had the in-person event in New York, in London, and not one person disliked it. I mean, they all liked it. I should be speaking in the positive. So it's so fun to see how we've been behind the scenes. It was just endless amount of people coming up and saying how much they're enjoying the new platform and curious to see what they're going to get next on it, because it's just kind of layer by layer getting more and more tools. Yeah. And we have some comments coming in for those who've been on it, talking to people who are jumping on it about what to check out. Raoul, I think it's good to slip in a question because a lot of people are asking, as they always do about what's happening in the crypto space.

7:34Just give us a quick thought on that. I mean, we talk about it being crypto winter, but this is a long game. We haven't changed at all the fact that we're paying close attention to this. It's crypto spring, not winter. Crypto markets, and I've been saying that for a long time, and Bitcoin's up 60 % this year. Solana's up 92%, ETH's up 35%. It's CryptoSpring. CryptoSpring often squirts up, chops back, goes sideways, frustrates you, goes the opposite direction you think it's going to go, and then powers ahead. That's what CryptoSpring is like. Same with MacroSpring. They're all the same thing. So we've been very sideways.

8:15And the reason being is liquidity has not been going into any of the system. So it doesn't spill into this. And without liquidity, it's going nowhere. So we wait for that to happen. And we're getting catalyst forming. If you look at the chart, we talked about this last week in New York, the chart of the BKX or the KRE, you look at the chart of bond yields, right? We're getting to the point where somebody's going to have to say enough. And that's the kind of trigger we're looking for when the narrative shift comes. Will the GDP numbers get revised lower tomorrow. Don't know. There's a possibility because everything's getting revised lower.

8:53The economic data looks like it's still weakening, which again, could change the Fed's narrative. It's all to play for. My whole thesis has been it's all about Q4 and the back end of Q4. It's end of October, November, December. This is always historically a very seasonably sloppy time, both in crypto markets and equity markets. It's about to go into the seasonably extremely strong long time in both crypto and equity markets, which is usually from middle of October. It's usually an up-only market. It's not a guarantee of that. It's just seasonality. But that's kind of where I am. So I'm observing the fact that the dollar's been screaming higher, bond yields have been screaming higher, and crypto has gone sideways.

9:38That tells you something in itself. Somebody else mentioned that. I love this. We have somebody in the chat, a dingo ate my Satoshi's, which is a great name, saying happy birthday. Thank you. Someone else asking, is Bitcoin being suppressed by paper Bitcoin through TradFi exchanges such as EDX and Citadel? I don't believe in that theory. It does dampen volatility because people can short, buy, sell, hedge, all of that stuff. And you need volatility to come down over time. But no, I don't see that. If it's being suppressed, there's a bit of an overhang from the FTX sales, the Mt. Gox sales. And there's a whole bunch of stuff that needs to get liquidated.

10:19That's happening over time. But really, it's just because there's no new money coming in. If you don't move any money, if nobody's got any capital gains, then nothing gets recycled through the system. So it just all feels a bit flat. And that's OK. And then the longer tail assets in crypto, if you think about equity markets probably lead housing markets by 18 months. Well, token markets lead NFT markets by about 18 months too. And NFTs are in the world of pain stage now that crypto was going through in the kind of May to October phase. So, you know, it's patience. It's the macro cycle. This is how it plays out.

10:56It takes time. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved.

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12:09Right, which is why we're always talking about both. One of the things, by the way, for my journey on Real Vision, I went from coming in with you guys, not knowing a lot or knowing it from a really outsider's perspective and probably wouldn't have been able to understand what you just said or the question. But I've learned so much from not only our programming, but from the community about digital assets, about crypto, about blockchain. I minted my own NFT, which is like no one can believe who knows me, including my children. But Nico, the thing I love is that that education DNA is really part of, and that's something we lean into, especially on something like the Academy, which has been amazing.

12:53Every time I meet someone, they talk about how helpful that's been to them. Absolutely. And it's one of the things that I love about working at Real Vision. I stopped taking math in 10th grade because I went to one of those schools that were like, oh, you're good at English. Don't worry about this. Never took an econ class, came here purely as a producer. And it's amazing when I'm on family calls and they're now asking me about the S &P 500 and what an option is and all of this stuff. And, you know, I'm really excited because we actually are going to be launching shortly our first Crypto Academy session with OSF and Mando.

13:26So we're going to be creating a new session to join our amazing other ones, like with Dave Floyd and Peter Brandt and Imran Blaka and Tom DeMarc. We got OSF and Mando joining them. That's going to be quite the interesting page there in the future. The DGens are starting to infiltrate, but that's what we want. So keep an eye out for that. We'll make some announcements about that over the coming weeks. That's so awesome. And Samuel, I know you and I just did our VIP events in London, along with Raul. Of course, and I were in New York. You were in London with Roger Hurst, who is, of course, all over the academy.

14:05And I think that the macro learnings there are among the best you'll find anywhere. And I know I heard that. We hear that all the time when we meet our members in person. You're just seeing images right now of the great event that we did in London, in the city. If you ever get a chance, let us know. Come and join us at that space that we have there. Roger, what he talked about was really incredible because all of us have been watching the Crash or Boom series. And you've seen what could feel like a lot of contradictory thesis out there about what's happening. And Roger was able to thread the needle in a way that only he can and made sense of every single speaker you saw in that 10 part plus series.

14:47and how even though it seems contradictory on the surface, it's all about the time horizons and they actually all make sense together. They can sound opposite, yet in a kind of symphony, let's call it, makes sense. So that piece is actually going to, you're going to see part of that on the platform in the coming days. Check that out. We thought Crasher Boom was over, but the way Roger did this, we just had to bring more of it. But it's great seeing people in person the way we did in London. I always say Real Vision's captured magic in a bottle And when you actually get to see the people, when we jump off these screens, it's really incredible how much the community say, oh, I was already meeting with this person in Germany.

15:25People are finding each other, even if it's not an official Real Vision event, because that's how much passion they have for this community and the types of markets that we're covering. Yeah, and RVIP is really interesting. For those that don't know, because it actually only went to, I think, the Pro All Access group first, because we wanted to test it out. it's this kind of amazing network of real vision members around the world that get together in person they message each other they create opportunities together they learn from each other they help each other and it's our premium experience it's kind of the top of the tree for real vision outside of club b which is the big family office network it's an extraordinary place and you know again i was at the new york event and it's a blessing to meet everybody and see how keen everybody is to help each other and to create opportunities for each other and learn from each other.

16:21So the RVIP is a magic experience. And you might hear some more about that in due course, because we've had a lot of people ask us about it. But let me - I know I put you on the spot instead of reopening it up again. Yeah, well, a lot of people are like, what the hell is this? We want to be involved. And look, it is special. I mean, I was there. Samuel was there. Roger was there. You were there last year. Incredible people. They're very diverse backgrounds. They have incredible jobs. They're really, really curious. They're trying to take our jobs, Maggie. They're already doing presentations for each other about what they're investing in or their products.

16:55And they're just doing them on their own, uploading them where the section only the RVIP members are. So they're just not going to need us in a little bit. Well, it's the power of the network, right? Yeah, let me show you the network. Yeah, while you're doing that, Raoul, pull that up because somebody who I think just has got on the new platform is saying, love this live view on the new platform, chat and comment side by side, plus the video and the ability to take notes at the same time in the same window. That's a game changer. I think that's on the other part, but this is also where you can see the conversations and the comments.

17:29Yeah, so this is, I don't know if it's up, it's not up yet, but here we go. So this is the RV network brought alive. And this map of the world shows you RV members. And you can dig in to quite granular detail, find out who's in your town, who's in your city. But you want to see how bloody global this thing is. I mean, look at this. We've got people in Sierra Leone, Kenya, South Africa, all over the place. And that global network, Australia is a huge crowd in Australia. And that global network can now message each other, network with each other. We're creating subgroups, chats for them. So this is where our VIP people can speak to just our VIP people, and they can exchange ideas.

18:25There's a level of power within this that will turn itself into an expert network over time as we increase member profiles. I come onto this every day and look at this and it just blows me away. And this is only a few of our members. We've still got 20 ,000 plus members to come onto this over the coming weeks. So this whole network comes alive and it's your network. It's all of our network. This is something really unique. So I love it. Yeah, and amazing things are going to spring from this. Guy said he just joined Essential from YouTube, and he gets so much from watching the Real Vision content and following the team members on other channels whenever they appear.

19:04Glad to be part of the RV tribe now. Thanks, Guy. We're so excited to have you pop up on the globe when you get your invite. So I feel like Milton, we've got the AI bot now, which I'm much more fond of than Milton. Maybe that's a change for the good. I don't know. Careful. Milton is listening. Yeah, Milton is everywhere. He's the fifth co-founder. He lives off a yacht in Monte Carlo somewhere. But he is the orchestrator of everything. The story behind Milton is actually a great story. So we launched the new Real Vision website in 2014, September 2014. We launched it to the world, this email list of 3 ,000 people who'd signed up.

19:50And it crashed. And it didn't work on Chrome browsers and this browser and that browser. And we were in a world of shit. We were like, what the hell do we do? I was in Cayman. Remy was in Spain. Grant was in Singapore. And Damien was in London. And what we had to do is man the kind of complaints email or the customer help email 24 hours a day because we have members from all around the world trying to get them on, telling them to use a different browser, clear their cache and all of that shit. Everything was falling apart. And we thought, how do we do this that it feels like reasonable? So Damien said, we need to have an invented person, which is Milton.

20:33So then everybody writes to Milton. So then Damien ends up, so why Milton? Milton was actually a play on, we don't like any of the schools of economic thought. So we thought Milton Friedman's as guilty of blowing up the world as Milton, as John Maynard Keynes is. So we had two, Milton and Maynard. Milton is a 1920s ventriloquist dummy, because we thought it was creepy. We thought it was fun. it was a little bit rebellious. So Milton's been the voice of Real Vision. He's part of Real Vision's mythology. You see him, there's always an Easter egg of Milton around. And he's part of it because we had no way of dealing with this.

21:15We're now 100 odd people, so we can deal with things that go wrong on the platform. Then it was four of us. We had no idea. As we said before, we knew fuck about fuck. And so we were scrambling to sort that out. But Milton remains with us, But the Real Vision bot, that's also going to be your kind of friendly little helper. You see the little green face at the bottom right hand of your screen. That bot will get more and more supercharged over time. We're working on tons of initiatives. And he's there to be your mentor, your co-pilot, your helper to help you explain, understand, assimilate information quickly, summarize stuff.

21:52He's there to really power your journey. So Milton's there to help you in your Real Vision journey, and the bot's there to help you in your financial journey. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

22:14Yeah, obsessed with the bot. A lot of people have been messaging us about that because, listen, there are a lot of barriers to understanding finance, however you come to us, and lingo and language is one of them. And this way, if there are theories that people are talking about, something that you don't understand, you can use that AI bot. It's been so helpful. We did it on the air yesterday when Jared just threw a term out that maybe everybody didn't know. It's absolutely tremendous. It's great stuff. That's a game changer. But it levels the playing field. That's always been our journey, right?

22:45So our mission statement's changed from democratizing the very best financial knowledge because we kind of did that. We invented this long form finance content. But now we've gone to, you know, we arm you with the network tools and knowledge to help you succeed in your financial journey. And this is all part of that. That leveling up of the leveling of the playing field. It's not fair that some people get all the knowledge and all the wisdom and others don't. So because finance is full of jargon and full of complexity, well, AI is going to change all of that and we're going to change it for everybody.

23:22Speaking of AI, Samuel, you had probably one of the most interesting conversations in the last year on Real Vision, and that was the first time we had Beth Kindig on. Speaking of AI, that was just mind-blowing. Well, this is one of my favorite things about Real Vision is elevating voices that people don't know. And a lot of those people are now known in this community. But one of those people of late is Beth Kindig. She's at IO Fund. And she was on the show Three Ideas. And she was just talking about NVIDIA, NVIDIA, NVIDIA. And this was before the NVIDIA craze. and afterward I got off with her and I said wow Beth you know we're off air now I said that was really good I've talked to a lot of people in tech over a lot of years there's something different what you're talking about here and she said listen if you only listen to me on one thing and not just in that one show but ever she said just listen to me on NVIDIA Damien Horner our co-founder he was running this kind of investing fake money in the company like just competing with each other and I told him watch this episode he knocked the socks out of everybody because he was paying such close attention to three to three ideas we have a tracker if you watch the show we have these sessions we get great people like Beth to come on and we track and see who does the best you're seeing it right on the screen there and at the end of the year Larry Lippard with his commodities which he's a big player in the commodity space Raoul's absolute favorite space And then Beth, these were the two best performers.

24:58Beth eventually in number one space because of NVIDIA and what she saw coming forward with AI. So Beth is just this great story, the great NVIDIA story that so many people have profited on from who watched that show. And then watching Beth rise. I mean, I haven't even gotten a chance to slack you yet, Raul. But so many people saying, can I get a discount to best material? And so many people wanting to know more about Beth now. because of her appearance here. I know you're a big fan of her as well. Yeah, and look, technology investing is an underserved market as well. Even though there's a lot of investors in it, it's very underserved by quality information.

25:36It's hard to get. So that's a great thing for Real Vision to do is like, okay, you're all interested in technology. Technology is changing the world. Let's give you the information you need. I just love that about Real Vision. We brought so many people to people's attention. that didn't really get the limelight before that they deserved. And people like Beth, amazing. I mean, I don't know if you saw the conversation yesterday with Robert Scoble and David Matten. It was just amazing. It's just incredible stuff. By the way, I love those conversations. Sorry, Ash. I love those conversations where people say, what's it like to work with Rao?

26:15And then Rao, in the middle of the day, messaging people who work at the company, oh my God, have you seen this interview yet? Yeah, we were working on the interview. No, no, you got to watch it again. That's how much he likes it, Ash. Oh, I was just going to say, talking about AI, I've completely gone down this rabbit hole and we're spinning up a new show here on the Real Vision platform called AI Firehose, which we're going to be bringing to you every three or four weeks where we talk about AI with an AI engineer named Mikhail Volashin, who I work with. And in fact, our first guest on that show, Samuel, to your point, is going to be David Mattin.