REKT Vision: Can the Market Take This Much Bitcoin Selling?

25:49And I think that's what we're seeing today with like airdrop farming, right? Like the metas get really, really repetitive. Like there's no need to be doing everything. And so just kind of like, you know, rolling most of my stuff back into like the mains and waiting for those fat pitches to come and then really being ready to take the swings. um monad i'm hoping that we get some allocation through my matlads uh matlads i love that community i really like uh just kind of the airdrops we got in we got like wormhole and a bunch of other things so there's there's good kind of like tie up there hopefully with monad bear chain is one that i've been following more for like the technical side um just very interesting what they're doing proof of liquidity and so on but again haven't really had the time to sit there and just airdrop farm.

26:35I think a lot of the airdrop farming opportunities, people fail to account for kind of like the opportunity cost. Not just time, but fund-wise, right? There's a lot of people that spent a lot of money farming some of the recent airdrops that didn't go so well for them because they failed to account that. You're spending 10 Ether to go farm 8 Ether worth of tokens. That's just a terrible, terrible trade. And I think folks are going to be much more discerning going into the fall and the winter, which probably means, you know, more opportunities to actually farm good stuff, which was like, you know, Q2, Q3 of last year, all those Solana protocols that nobody was using, nobody was farming.

27:13That's why those airdrops were so juicy because people got so much of them. People were not engaging with Bonk, for example, or like Jupiter and the like. But once you have to spotlight on, like everybody's doing the exact same thing, like Blast, then you get the kind of results that we just got. So yeah, just being patient. Obviously, meme coins have held up pretty well. I have some Mog, I have some Pepe, I have some Whiff, which is not so hot right now. But I have some Giga or Giga, however you pronounce it. I think that's... Yeah, I think that's one that I just... I don't know. I like the meme and I bought it.

27:50But again, I'm just degening my personal time with my startup rather than like trying to catch every single meme coin or airfarm opportunity right now. I think that's a good idea. I think Monad and I don't even know how you farm Monad, but I think Baratain people have been farming for a while. What do you think of Punks here? Like as people maybe going back to NFTs as a player? Yeah, so obviously they're a big part of my portfolio. So actually, you know, I'm a couple of DAOs, PunkDAO for example. I like them at 60. I love them at 28. I think if you don't like punks at 28 and you like them at 60 or 100, then there's something that you should revaluate about your allocation.

28:36For me, punks have really transcended that NFT, PFP bucket. And I think they're the ultimate NFT asset when it comes to portfolio allocation as the industry continues to mature. And you see it with, obviously on crypto Twitter, everybody loves to hate whatever's doing well or not. And there's a lot of tribalism, but if you step back and you look at Punks being in major museums and you look at Punks really being kind of that marquee asset that every single NFT fund has and a lot of VC funds in the space have, it's going to just fluctuate with planned demand. And to your point, there's not a lot of demand right now for NFTs overall.

29:18So they get thrown in that same bucket. But I do think that down the line, once people feel wealthy again and more players want to get exposure to the ecosystem, punks will shine back to the top, even though they're still at the top when it comes to floor price. And there's not a lot of punks to go around. There's about 1 ,000 punks that are lost forever. So it's 9 ,000 punks. In the greater scheme of things, that is not a lot of tokens. obviously the asset ownership concentration is still pretty high and part of the reason why Punks dropped 50 % over the last six weeks is because a couple of large holders have just been kind of like cashing out but it should be in something that for me Punks are like the one thing that I don't want to sell for a couple more cycles obviously with you got the helm that introduced some risk as we saw with the recent drop that didn't go so well but it doesn't change the provenance or the way they're positioned in the ecosystem.

30:20And every single time they drop, I see more and more people kind of like saying they finally want to punk. So I think the demand is there. I just think it hasn't been a really good time for NFTs. But if you think about it, I bought my first punk at 6 Ether back in 21. That was 10K at the time. They're still$80 ,000,$90 ,000 right now. That's still a really nice return over, what is it, three years. even if they're going up to$500 ,000. You just look in a vacuum versus a lot of other crypto assets. They've done really, really well. Honestly, I just really like them. Yeah, I just feel having done this newsletter every single day, there's farming fatigue, there's a bit of meme coin fatigue, and then you have punk sitting at basically all time, well, cycle lows in terms of ETH.

31:15And in NFTs, which again are not loved and it does feel like a good, it feels like a good counter trade. Like it just feels like something that is non-consensus that you could, you can maybe look at and load up. That is the main worry. It's just that they're still very concentrated in terms of holders. So when one person exits, it can be a little bit painful, but at the same time, that's also a good opportunity to get in sometimes. So yeah, that was the one thing I was looking at where I was like, well, this could be a good time to look at sweeping something like that and getting involved. You did mention some of the top meme coins.

31:54Interestingly, this week, Bonk flipped Whiff, which we did kind of speak about on the show. These have been two of the biggest Solana meme coins. And Whiff, I think, hit a high of around, just shy of 5 billion. is now a reflip by Bonk. And then you've seen a lot of strength in Mog over Pepe, which has been two of the biggest ETH meme coins. Where are your allocation buckets for those four? Yeah, so like I said, I have some WIF. I have a very small amount of Bonk. Bonk obviously has a team behind it and have a lot of things that they're building. It's a coin that it's almost like the Dogecoin of Solana even before WIF and obviously the mindshare got taken away when WIF came around because it made a broader group of people more money than the bunk did.

32:45Also bunk dropping in the depths of the bear market always kind of like you know and a lot of people missed it. Honestly my favorite meme coin is still Dutchcoin. I think you know we have not seen the masses come back and and it's funny I remember, and again, I keep talking about fire blocks, but I remember pitching, I was in the sales role, I built up the Latin American sales team there for a year. And I will do a lot of demos and pitches. And we will put the slide up of all the blockchains that we supported at the time. And it was all major L1s and Dogecoin. And it always just stood out because it was like, you know, Ether and Bitcoin and stuff like that.

33:25And relics from the past, like XRP and Litecoin, but Doge. And the reason why Barblock supported Dogecoin was because there was so much demand from exchanges and retail-focused players that they needed that. And I just continue to think that when the masses return, Dogecoin will be the one that captures the majority of that mindset because everybody remembers the Goldman Sachs MD that retired from Dogecoin. Everybody remembers like the Dogecoin millions. Everybody's seen the Dogecoin, like, you know, McLaren around. Whereas some of the newer ones, they're more crypto native. And that's why I think they've outperformed during this period where like, you know, normie retail is still largely absent from the space.

34:09And then just memes like Mog and Giga that just kind of resonate with a broader population. My mistake with Pepe was, for example, not realizing that it was like, you know, a right wing thing. And like people really liked the frog memes and kind of just faded that a little bit to my detriment. With being so cute, hard to miss. But again, I think we mentioned last week, might be tied to certain crypto Twitter personalities that might not be having their best moments right now. So I don't know, I'm a lot less easy in these days. So set it and forget it. I think Dogecoin, really the one that will be the easiest thing to capture mindshare when things return to kind of like that late stage cycle, probably also a really good top indicator or like late stage cycle indicators when Dogecoin runs.

34:59It's everywhere you can buy it on every single app exchange around the world pretty much. And yeah, Dark Horse Mog, I saw somebody with the sunglasses that are wearing last month in Portugal and they had no idea about the coin, but they were like, oh shit, there's a coin for this. Let me know how to buy it. And so things like that, I think that speak to the populace are going to do well. Meme coins being just attention tokens and why can't really keep attention. I think they released a new app where you can just mock any picture. So that's pretty cool. Yeah, again, like distribution of the meme, right?

35:36Like that's, these are all just distribution networks and tokens being those endpoints. How can you get that in front of more people? And that's why I think Dogecoin rules supreme. Obviously a huge amount of performance versus everything else this year. But yeah, so just honestly, like Dogecoin is my biggest meme coin allocation. But again, that's stuff that I've just been setting and forgetting. And then it's hard to trade around the other stuff. So yeah, I'm actually curious to hear you because you've done really well with a couple of these. How are you thinking about them now? Yeah. First, I think it's a little bit difficult because I think this has actually been one of the few periods where top meme coins have been underperforming altcoins.

36:12And we'll maybe get into that a little bit. But this week and last week, you know, normally you would expect to see on this sort of bounce, a lot of these meme coins do well. And they've all done pretty badly. So we may be seeing a bit of more of like a rotation, actually, a little bit of a fatigue, like we've said, generally in meme coins. But out of those ones there, I agree with you that Pepe, Doge and Mog are my three favorites. I would probably say Pepe just from a risk of war standpoint. point um i think doge obviously is going to be here for multiple cycles and i think mog has has got a good beta to it at the moment but it's difficult with the others like i don't really feel that maybe even multi-cycle coins yeah but but this week it has really been it has been kind of a short squeeze with we looked at things like celestia was up like 80 from the lows things like Say did its V2 mainnet launch.

37:07You had Sui, like some of these L1s have really bounced back this week. Do you think we've hit peak meme point? Do you think meme coin dominance goes down here? Do you think we're now going to be now looking at other things start to take it? Yeah. So Notcoin is kind of a meme coin on the Tom blockchain, but this is not really meme coins now. This is Mantra, Celestia, Optimism, Aave, Core, Stacks. I mean, Yes, but that's definitely underperformed as a meme coin this cycle. And then Cardano, do you think it's now so uncool to own altcoins that it's now the right trade? You look at those charts for all these coins, like Celestia, yeah, it's up 28 % of the week, but its chart looks like an absolute death.

37:56And again, the majority of the holders, I don't think they even know what they do. It's just like a really good airdrop. The dev hacks, like the FBI or something, I think that was like the number one thing, the selling point for Celestia for a while. Yeah, so, you know, down 75 % from February for something that technically has, you know, business behind it. Mint coins will always be mint coins, right? Like it's a tension market, I think. Just from the sentiment around crypto Twitter, it just feels people are just very tuned out. It's a summer lulls. It's beautiful out in the majority of the world.

38:31you have you know football tournaments that have been really good you have the olympics coming up yeah good luck on sunday by the way um and and so it is it's it's just not lost to me that you know people are burnt out it was a very very aggressive rally from like october november till march i think a lot of people sat on the sidelines for too long and once they all jumped in and like march april that's where like, you know, there was no momentum to continue. So a lot of backholders, again, right with NFTs, like NFTs go higher when people feel richer and they want to flex. Nobody today, even though, you know, the main coins up multiples from last year, nobody really is feeling rich on crypto Twitter right now.

39:18Like there's been, I mean, other than Wizard of Soho flexing his club and his seaplane stuff, like there's been very little compared to other cycles where you really start seeing people you know i've seen rolex pictures from like that blast protocol that was doing rwas that i've seen from people buying them because they had a good meme country but like to me those are signs right like i remember in 21 people were like oh shit i just flipped this fidenza into like this house and now people are like oh fidenza's trading for 20 ether like we're all so poor and i don't know i feel like i feel like people were late to get off the sidelines they got they you know some of them did really well with main coins at the end of the year.

39:56Either rotated too late or just came in too late overall. And now everybody's feeling like a backholder. And that's why you have like this really low sentiment. But I just think once we really get the green light from like the Fed, there's a cut coming. And honestly, the more professional players start leading these things higher, we'll get the crowd back into the main coin trade, back into the NFT trade. and hopefully people book those games and flash those Rolexes this time around for real. Yeah, I'm still undecided. I'm sitting here and I'm really taking note of the idea that for the last month or so, meme coins have not had a good beta.

40:36They get smashed whenever mages fall and they never really bounce in the same way. I think that's mainly because the top meme coins have really been the ones that have suffered. I really do like Pepe, Doge even, and Mog, but it's just something I think to be aware of. If you are one of these people who is 80 % meme coins, Doge hasn't really moved this cycle. We could have a situation where Pepe and Whiff have hit their cycle high and they don't really come back on the same sort of strength. And that's not to say you can't get 100x on some random Solana meme coin, but as a sector, it's just pay attention because this has been a softer period for the majors.

41:23And you're starting to see clearly people rotate into other bags, which used to, you know, your 10x altcoin play, people might be starting to play. I think the tokenomics don't help a lot of those projects, but it is interesting to see that switch. which I think I still prefer the majors. I still prefer Solana than most other trades. I agree. It feels like meme coins, there could be some pain on those streets. It's also so much delusion, right? Sites like Pump.Fun, and there's so many new sites that are similar. I see people saying, oh, Pump.Fun made$20 million in fees over the last week or something.

42:05Like to me, that's bearish meme coins, right? That just, that's$20 million that is coming out of the meme coin ecosystem. That's, those are fees. Those are burnt, like, you know, pumped up fun and like creators are not using that money to pump actually or like buy tokens. Same thing with like, listen, I have a lot of artist friends, obviously Ovi is one of them. Like royalties used to take out a lot of money from the ecosystem because those are just transaction fees, right? They're like taxes. And when you see the ecosystem being monetized through increased activity in that sense, and those fees are high or just, you know, there's, I mean, you jump on Popdown Fund and like, it's hard to keep up with how fast the site is moving for new launches.

42:53Like that's little by little, that's a lot of equity that just starts to really get taken out of the market. You know, people still go to the casino, like it's probably a trillion dollars that gets spent on casinos every single year. Yeah, but casino stocks fluctuate massively, right? Like if we're looking at like your major mean coins as, you know, the stock in the casino, then you have some really rough years for the winds and the sands of the world. So, yeah, I think to your point, like it's a really good thing to keep in mind, right? Like why are mean coins not doing well? And for me, it's just attention.

43:27People are just, they're burnt out. even like the professionals, like the infrastructure of people. I don't know if you saw like recaps from ETC, which is obviously, you know, one of the largest EVM conferences in the world. It's very, very like developer focused. Like the talks are very, very technical, but you know, some pictures of, you know, keynotes with three people in the audience. Yeah, it was Brussels and, you know, it's the summer and so on, but people I think are kind of like rent out, checked out. The tension's not there and in a market that is so needy, needy of that attention being invested and recycled and the hype cycle and the FOMO.

44:03When you see those signs, I think that's when it reflects and stuff like the meme coin sector. Yeah, look, I think that's why we are still plugged in. You know, there's still opportunity in this market. I think this is what gets me very, very bullish about the market right now. A lot of people are switching off. They think it's over. you know um we've hit cycle highs and this just really reminds me of 2021 we in the in around june to august of june or kind of from the spring into the summer bitcoin and eaves dropped 50 50 60 percent and everyone said it was over and then we then we hit new all-time highs just later just a few weeks later month later in the um uh in 2021 it feels it feels similar to me here it's like people are giving up and then they'll FOMO back in as we, as we skyrocket.

44:56So that's my view. I think we have maybe some questions. Let me just, let me do a few of them. My throat is, is giving way to me at the moment, but it's all that celebration for England and the Eurocop. I know, I know I need to, I need to prepare myself for it today. So we have some one from Sarah on the real vision website. Any thoughts slash position on the Ton ecosystem, Ton blockchain, the open network, obviously linked to Telegram? So obviously, it's one of those where the alpha was getting involved early. Gigantic user base, not easy to buy. So again, alpha there too. Now, for me, I think it's probably the ones that sustains very well, just given the level of user engagement on the platform.

45:47but it does seem that it's maybe I wouldn't put too much into it just because now everybody's talking about it and really maybe that's when you really get that last hurrah on some of these projects I don't have any real view when it comes to who's actually buying the token what is it being used for or is it just everybody trying to farm hamster things, hamster races and so on. But yeah, I think, again, to your point, right, we should be aware of what the flows are here and it just seems to be like, it's been a really good story and it's more like a momentum play. And I would love to do more research myself, but I just haven't had the time.

46:36I'm a buyer. I like this one. I think it's going to have adoption in this cycle, maybe through some of these gaming gaming on mobile that they've managed to get done with like these clicky games. But at the same time, it just feels as though if they integrate it more and more into Telegram and Telegram becomes more and more the crypto app, it seems, then I think they've got a good shot. The tokenomics are not great, but I think it's one of those ones where you probably buy it. The tokenomics were terrible for Solana last cycle and it still did really well, so I'm not going to fade this one. This is definitely one of the old coins I'm I'm looking to buy on dips.

47:16If you were buying here today, what would be your target? Or what would you be thinking about exiting where at? I think this is more just a two to two and a half X by the end of this cycle, if I'm honest. So it's more replacing majors rather than like a de-gen plan. It's an$18 billion FTV. So I don't think that gets to like more than 60-ish. that would be high I think even by the end of the cycle but so yeah 2 to 3x but but anything I have in stables or anything they have in other majors I feel like it's got a decent a decent risk reward still at that level I like that framework thinking about the trades like that and which buckets they fall into and kind of like what the goal is I think a lot of people go into trades they do really well they're just skill or luck but they don't have an exit plan and that's how you get in trouble especially at things start getting frothy and you get all excited about your PA.

48:16So I actually appreciate that you guys always have a trade plan. It obviously gets reassessed as you go through time, but having a trade plan, I think it's super important. Yeah, for sure. That one for me, you've got to have an idea of your risk reward for each of these trades. And that also determines your allocation to it or what you should be replacing it with in your portfolio. Right, we'll do two more questions. So is it time to rotate into 30-year bonds? So basically, are we going to see a massive, massive move here to decrease interest rates around the world and you're going to have these big moves in long-dated bonds on the back of that?

49:01I think that question might misinterpret or misunderstand the reaction function in markets to short-term stimulus. And that I would think the curve steepens. And if you're really expecting liquidity to come in, you want to be in the short end. Especially with the way that a lot of the, let's call it, country treasuries around the world are set up where they now have a really high debt burden. or they're going to have to print a lot more money to satisfy those debts in the future. So that will cost inflation, that will cost rates in the long term to go higher. So bonds to sell off. So if your trade is liquidity coming into the market, I think you got to express it with the right tool.

49:49And that's either risk assets, or if you want to play the rates market. Oh, sorry about that. If you were a credit trader, you know this better. but obviously playing the shorter end of the curve rather than the long end. Yeah, I feel like it's one of those trades that you might be frustrated in, that even if people reduce rates or governments reduce rates, you don't see as much of an outperformance by those longer-dated treasuries. My guess is, like you said, there's a creeping in of credit risk, or at least maybe not credit risk, but the idea that they're going to have to print just insane amounts to get out of this?

50:29And is that really viable? We're now at the situation where most economies are, well, many of the major economies are kind of above 100 % debt to GDP. And I think that's just like an underlying uneasiness in long-dated government securities there. So I agree. I would rather be in the belly or in the short end of the curve, even for that trade. I just think it would be, they'll actually perform better and you can be frustrated in the longer end. And then we will have one more, which is, is the four-year Bitcoin cycle way too common knowledge now with everyone expecting it to play out again? Do you think we're going to see a classic four-year cycle here?

51:13I think so. I think that, you know, humans are cyclical by nature. And I think that it not only does the timing match what we're seeing with macro and with policy, I think there's the fact that everybody expects it means that there's a lot less people that are skeptical about it than they're not. So that means that more people are going to position for it. Now, to maximize your return over the cycle, that's where you really need to be smarter than everybody else to really try to sell the top. But the fact that it's so expected tells me that people are going to position for it and therefore we're going to get the majority of it.

51:59I think that again, the risk of repeating myself, but the real alpha will be like, how do you get out at the top and not either leave money on the table by exiting before the top or by coming back in if you get out too early and then following at the top or just round tripping like a lot of the stuff we did in 21. Yeah, it's difficult because this four-year cycle, I think people probably faded it last cycle and it happened again. I'm more in the fading it. I feel like we maybe move away from classic four-year cycles just because of the amount of TradFi that's come in. I think we probably more start to mimic the cycles in macro rather than have our own separate cycles.

52:39And I also think just because so much of the Bitcoin supply now is out there, it feels as though maybe that delta difference from the halving is smaller and smaller. It's something like over 98 % of all the Bitcoin is out there now. So these halvings are less of an impact in many ways. So I'm probably fading it this cycle, but I wouldn't be shocked if we end up just having a classic four-year cycle again and everyone then expects it to happen again for the next cycle as well. Okay, well, look, that was it for Rec Vision again this week. Thanks a lot, Sergio. Great to have you. Good luck with what you're building.

53:25You can obviously follow Sergio on X. He's Sergio, or Sergito on X with his punk PFP. Do you want to tell us a little bit about what you're building again? Sure. So Reeling Popset, it's a mobile native web three powers social network so everything it's an image sharing similar to like an instagram where every post can be made collectible on solana by the creator so it can be like an open edition limited edition and your followers fans friends can then go and instead of just give you a like that's quite meaningless and valueless they can collect that token and thus curate their own online presence through the stuff that they've been pinning to their profile through collection.

54:07And so it's a good way to lower the inherent differences that exist between creators and followers in that now I'm not only supporting you by promoting your content, but I'm getting something in return in a token being an NFT in this case. And down the line, if, for example, like you guys, like OB, right? Like OSF is not really well known in the space, but if I had collected a large early posts and then obviously you guys got the level of popularity that you've gotten, I could represent to the world that I was there in a moment of time. That was an earlier supporter of Ovi or Mando or Real Vision, for example.

54:47So it's really using Web3 Rails in a way that's non-speculative, but it gives you that long-term value system where you can forever represent what is some of the actions or support that you gave on chain. So Pops at XYZ, we actually are about to go live on the App Store here in a couple of days, but we have a test flight version that everybody's welcome to download. There's no invite code or anything needed. Nice. Well, thanks a lot for coming on for the last couple of weeks. That sounds kind of like Pinterest meets Twitter meets Instagram, it sounds like. Yeah, it should be fun to use once we have, you know, outdoor full launch and more people creating on there.

55:27But we've minted over 4 ,000 NFTs already from the small beta tester user rates that we have. I think people are really enjoying posting and collecting. So welcome everybody to come. I'll have to go on with OSF next week. But yeah, really, really appreciate you stepping in. Obviously, we have a bit of history, so it's great to kind of pick your brain about how things are going to be moving forward. We are obviously doing this with Real Vision. you can go onto the Real Vision website. We do every, in fact, last week, we do a section for premium holders where you can sign up and we do a drinks session, Q &A every four weeks.

56:05Otherwise, you can follow us on YouTube or find us on X. Thanks a lot, everyone, for tuning in and we'll see you again next week. We hope you enjoyed this episode. At Real Vision, we arm you with expert knowledge, time-efficient tools, and a powerful network to help you succeed on your financial journey. Get a taste of financial freedom with our free offer at realvision.com forward slash free. That's realvision.com forward slash free.

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