REKT Vision: Crypto Fears Creep Back In: Central Bank Policies And Choppy Markets ft. OSF and Mando

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1:53Hello again. Sorry I was not here last week. bit of a family emergency you might say but i am back again this week um with for rect vision our update on the crypto markets even though everything seems to be going sideways for a few weeks now um awesome to see again osf how have you been without me uh yeah it's uh things have been okay i was kind of out um a lot of this past week so it's really nice to come back and see markets are basically at the same price as it was a week ago with all that random chop and volatility in between i think um again like if you look at the weekly move on bitcoin we're up three percent on the week which i guess is nice ether is up five percent on the week's amount of performance which is nice so yeah i guess we are up a little bit on the week across the board but um it doesn't really tell the full story of everything that happened uh yet again as the uh the chop continues and cries from crypto space everywhere saying stop the chop um this isn't i mean we've been in chops for much longer than this um what has surprised me how narrow the range is right we've just kind of bounced around this 83 84k level um it feels like we could be in there for a while in my opinion uh maybe we'll go through the macro week because it was it was meant to be a very very volatile macro week and we did have to see some volatility went down to around 80 went up to around 87 88 back to 84 again um bitcoin dominance has gone kind of gone back up to around 62 percent um in general alt coins have have continued to underperform but uh it definitely doesn't the fear i don't know if the fear is still there are you still fearful of us going down to like 70k or lower here not really it does feel like to me we seem to have found a flaw and found some stability at current levels i think there's there was a couple of times we went into the 70s and that got bought up relatively quick such that i don't think i don't know if we've had any daily candles closed in the 70s i think we've always um i think the lowest um actual candle close may have been you know 80 and a half or something like that so to me it feels like we've seemed to have found a bottom um that doesn't mean that we just v-shape back up and i still i'm maintaining we're in for this period of sideways price action some volatility some drop but it does give me a bit more confidence to be like okay you know maybe this is now the level where it should be adding some more risk and just DCAing a bit more heavily, basically, just because it seems to have found a flaw.

4:40The panic feeling seems to have left the market now. It just now seems to be more frustration rather than panic, I would say. Yeah, I think if you've been around crypto for long enough, you kind of know that we're in a period of choppy and it could stay like this for a decent period. This week, we did have quite a lot of different like macro pointers though i think maybe to touch upon we have three different central banks coming out all not really changing rates at all um although the fed in my opinion was a little bit more hawkish than i thought that they would be they pointed to the idea that we'd have inflation although they use that classic word transitory um and they reduced their growth growth expectations and they said that you know competitive tightening was at least probably going to come to an end um still only two rate cuts expected though this year from them the the market seemed to like it and then just kind of returns being around 84k like we've spoken about the idea that the fed and generally global liquidity going higher is probably the major tailwind for this year it didn't really fill me with a ton of confidence that they're about to just like turn on the taps or immediately pivot What was your thinking of it all?

5:58My base case was that we would not see a dovish Fed this month. I think we've started to see data weak, and we've started to see inflation come a little bit lower, payrolls come lower. But I don't think there's enough movement on the table for the Fed to pivot or do a U-turn or give any meaningful message that was different to the last FOMC. And remember, the Fed is looking at kind of looking more at stuff like inflation, labor market, etc., rather than stocks. So, you know, I think people, anyone who was expecting the Fed to be materially dovish this week, maybe were thinking about stocks and the moving risk assets.

6:43And I think that's less important for the Fed. So that's more of a byproduct of what happened. So my expectation was we wouldn't see anything that was meaningfully different from the last FOMC. And that's generally what happened. however the next fomc i believe is in may towards the end of may and so we should have two months worth of uh renewed data until then and if we see these trends continuing so if we see to handle inflation persist and drift lower if we see payrolls continue to drift lower then i think you will start to see the fed become more dubbish and whether we pivot straight away or whether you start to see signs of a pivot, I'm not sure.

7:22But that, for me, is a timeline. And I think that dovetails quite nicely, or not nicely, if you like, with the whole six-month CHOP thesis and the fact that it will take time for us to break out of this. I think that is the timeline. And just given the price action we've had towards the end of last year after Trump's victory, I think the market is a little bit spoiled in terms of instant gratification, things happening right away. and still everyone wants the moves to happen to happen tomorrow they want that v-shaped rally they want bitcoin back at 100k and all this stuff and they want it to happen like right now they want it to happen yesterday but it's not going to happen like that it will just take some time and it'll take some time for risk to consolidate and clear um but that timing for me makes sense which i think sets up for a potential summer rally should the data go the right way and should Powell step up and start to become a bit more dovish so um yeah I felt like on the back line yeah on the back of that I felt like May wasn't going to be a rate cut again in my opinion it felt but you may get more dovish commentary that's what I don't think it will be a rate cut I still my expectation is still not for it to be a rate cut but I think May could set the stage for potential future rate cuts like I think a surprise rate cut when the market isn't expecting it is not necessarily a good thing.

8:40I think it causes a little bit of panic. Whereas when a rate cut starts to get telegraphed and then it eventually happens, I think it gives time for the market to digest it and become constructive about it. So I think the Fed are kind of aware of that as well. Like I think if they just immediately slash rates, it would just put people back, well, like what the hell? We must be in a really bad spot. So again, like the data is like really, really terrible for the next two months. And maybe you might see it, but again, that starts to get baked in. So I don't think we see any surprise rate cuts. Maybe I don't think we even see a rate cut in May.

9:12But from May onwards, I think you maybe start to see more rate cuts get priced in, whether it's this year, whether it's over a 12 month period, I'm not sure. But I think the tune starts to change in the second half of the year. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030.

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11:01Yeah, we're going to have to... A rate cut in September, hopefully. What does happen is when Bitcoin ranges for a while and ETH ranges for a while and majors range for a while, you do have pockets of performance from other stuff. And in 2023, that was maybe like Mean Coins and Pepe for a little bit. obviously have meme coins in 2024 so I do expect I think if we continue to range like this for another two or three more weeks I do expect something to just come out of nowhere and start doing really well because those are the environments where people get you know sidetracked into experimenting with other things so maybe it's not right now but I would keep an eye out for developing narratives I would say It does feel as though the fear factor is still in stocks.

11:46I don't know if you would agree with that but like you're starting to see you've seen the biggest reduction in equity allocation by fund managers for over a decade. This was the fastest correction I think we've seen in something like seven years, like from all-time high down, or one of the fastest corrections in the last two decades at least. I think COVID must have been quicker than that, so maybe I'm wrong on my stats there. But it does feel as though this has caught people off guard. this whole trump trade where you own like um big tech alongside maybe energy stocks tesla trump media all of that has been destroyed and it's interesting to see that like part of the narrative actually coming out of tradfi is that bitcoin's been outperforming bitcoin's still one of the best performing assets since trump got elected it's like it's bitcoin and it's china stocks yeah we're down from 100 and 100k like 110k but it is interesting to see that like it's still being seen as a pocket of almost outperformance since Trump, or at least in that Trump basket of things that were meant to do well.

12:56And I think that's a very interesting narrative that I think, and we spoke about this last week, I think could actually, or two weeks ago, could persist even if stocks go a little bit lower. I think Bitcoin could continue to kind of outperform, let's say, stocks here and probably keep such its correlation with things like empty money supply and gold. um i it still feels like stocks with the rise of china particularly um on the ai side you know all these new models a lot of the the announcements around self-driving cars around deep sea baidu some of the robotic stuff they've been announcing is really challenging like some of the magnificent seven stocks and that could be a bit of a medium-term trend i don't know but that could drag the stock market lower even if global stocks stay relatively elevated and gold keeps on pushing higher so do you think we're in this sort of market where bitcoin can go higher even if stocks go lower as well yeah i can see it i think the upside of bitcoin is obviously if you're talking about like a massive risk on environment i think the upside of bitcoin especially in this new regulatory regime is a lot higher than it is for equities.

14:11And so it comes to a point where it gets to a level and some flaw where someone is like, or a bunch of people are like, oh, we're just going to accumulate Bitcoin here at these levels. Because when the policies come into place and if the US does ever start buying Bitcoin and all that kind of stuff, it's going to go a lot, lot higher. So it seems like that level has maybe been found at least at the first iteration of it. And that is a very Bitcoin specific thing. It's not an equity specific thing. It's not even a risk asset thing. It's just a Bitcoin thing. Like there's probably a handful of people out there who are like, okay, I'm going to front run the US and potentially other sovereign nations in buying Bitcoin.

14:49And here's my line in the sand. I'm going to deploy X amount of capital here. So it feels like that level has kind of been found. Like it's very clear there's deep bids for Bitcoin once you get like sub 83K. and that to me says yeah we maybe do see some outperformance um of it because you know we've been outperforming on days where stocks are red and bitcoin has actually held up pretty well so um i would attribute that to new trump crypto policies and the potential of countries buying bitcoin and people wanting to front run that and deciding this is the level to do it yeah arthur hayes came out this week and said who had been bearish all the way down actually had had a good call um for once uh came out and said 77k thought actually was the bottom when we touched it then um and he'd been calling for 70 to 75k bitcoin um it on a technical side bitcoin is hanging out right at its 200-day moving average.

15:55So there's a lot of huge calls at the moment for like, oh, we're about to enter a bear market, oh, we're not. Oh, we've got 12 months of everything going wrong, oh, we're not. And as long as it kind of stays around this 200-day moving average, I think people can get wrecked thinking it can go either side. My gut is that Bitcoin probably will continue to outperform now, as we've spoken about kind of on this, in terms of dominance. I know there'll be pockets of outperformance, like you said, but I feel as though this is a market where in most scenarios, I still think Bitcoin has a pretty strong trend to it.

16:31And like you said, there's a lot of people just want to buy on a dip. I was actually thinking today, like, what are the top five catalysts that it could possibly be now for 2025? Because this week there are rumors of zero tax on crypto in the US, and I don't think that's very plausible. but it feels as though stablecoin regulation coming through they've talked about that potentially coming by the summer again so that kind of fits your narrative of something strong there um rwa regulation no it'd be good to see more broad regulations there about putting securitizing essentially or tokenizing assets which are securities on blockchain maybe you get another one of the big sovereign wealth funds buying a lot of crypto maybe like saudi arabia or um one of the uae states or qatar coming in and buying a decent amount maybe something out of china maybe we get maybe we get something about uh softening of of at least policy on the mainland towards china or um just some form of government policy which is going to be supporting crypto and then the final one was like maybe not just like a micro strategy but one of the big tech stocks decides they want to have a some form of a crypto holding um alongside alongside tesla you know who kind of is known to having some but these things all feel a bit more i wouldn't say unlikely but they just feel less certain when they'll happen and they could it could they could never happen or they could happen in like three years from now do you know what i i mean um so it does feel as though even though there is all these catalysts i think will happen at one point or another i do think uh we're kind of in a yeah it will just get dip buyers rather than like aggressive buying i don't think anyone's like out there aggressively buying i think they're like well if it goes lower i'll i'll be the bid but i don't know if people are like oh this is going back to 100k in the next um in the next couple of weeks just because i just think that that the the fear is is really there in um in macro wherever i wherever i look in macro everyone is freaking out about china or about japanese bond yields um i know rao like breaks it down just in like a purely empty money growth equation which i think is actually very easy it like makes everything much calmer but um it's just interesting to see that that's kind of i think what's keeping a lid on stuff it's like people are wary of something in macro about to break yeah it does um it does feel like that doesn't it does feel like the fear is more on the macro side of things and i've seen talks of like recession stuff now etc um yeah recession like maybe maybe but but i mean i don't personally don't see it but i'm seeing people talk about that again i don't know if all of it is just trump kitchen sinking stuff to get things to where he wants to before they can just start um relieving pressure with cutting interest rates i think the one chart that um kind of goes against all of the macro fears is the um uh u.s money supply chart m2 which continues to go higher yeah which continues to go higher and has historically been a very good leading indicator for bitcoin um and that's something that kind of maybe is like bucking the macro fears i would say not that many people look at that chart i guess like a lot of crypto people do the most foolish shot in crypto brawl shares it like every every show he gets on which is like the leading indicators or the uh the money supply with a three-month flag we haven't seen that like correction of bitcoin to that chart yet we saw the correction of bitcoin to that chart to the downside which maybe had what like a one or two month lag but we haven't seen the correction to the upside and again like i'm not the sort of person who just thinks oh well because that chart's gone up again bitcoin is eventually going to correct again just because it always does i don't usually think that but it does feel like we've had enough good news and enough of a clear out and enough of um a risk unwind potentially lower leverage now for bitcoin to just i could see it just being up 10 you know back up to towards 90 95k without like for you know for minimal move in equities i could i could definitely see that happening and then that would that would kind of again be in line with that um with that m2 chart so um there's belief in that chart i think i think i believe in that chart yeah it's just like there is just a general belief so people buy in the same way that you're like oh people are going to buy because they're expecting you know sovereign institutions to buy there is just a general belief that like oh we'll just follow global liquidity because that just that makes the most sense because there's been correlation for so long now so if you want to be bullish just i think ral did a q a actually during the week go listen to that uh where he just goes through all the major charts as they always look at you know the the ism and the uh and the the three-month lag to global liquidity and it does feel as though just you can just have faith in that one thing that has also been up only in crypto is it has been stable coins so we've hit 230 billion now um which was another all-time high in stable coins they were up i think 15 to 20 billion already this year um like year to date and it's a figure that interestingly like maybe this goes against the the whole narrative for for original blockchains or at least for bitcoin but um are these l1s just now going to become places to trade uh or move stable coins the eth was even like touting it that as it's one of its main use cases this week and there's a lot of eth maxis basically being like oh god we've just we've just become a way for people to move the dollar do you think this is also kind of becoming the age where some of those dreams die away from bitcoin that you'd have like not sovereign but like you have independent current like currencies is eth just a way for people to to like transfer stable coins basically is that the real use case here or like are we give are we giving up on some of the dreams i think of some of these l1s no i think um i think the dream of programmable money is still a real dream we just have to find do that with stable coins yeah there's a lot of questions about that at the moment like bitcoin's got this gold narrative and uh look obviously we do a lot of d5 stuff we use the collateral of some these assets quite a lot but it's interesting that even the the biggest blockchains themselves are basically pointing to that being like their number one use case is there's people saying that stable coins could go up to like one trillion dollars this year like the amount of stable coins if rwa and stable coin regulation gets passed and then you start to question like well is it just bitcoin and stable coins i don't think so i think there's there's i think it's important to recognize that even though eth hasn't moved a lot there's still a ton of activity that happens on ethereum l1 ton of activity that happens on like arbitrary in terms of defy there's still a lot of activity that happens on base um i think like the idea of activity is separate to the idea of price appreciation if that makes sense and you would you would sometimes think of activity is going through the moon like the price of it will go up um sometimes sometimes that does happen if you think about solana etc but um there's a ton of i guess like a lot of it is stable and stuff but there's a ton of like defy um nfts still have like their place on ethereum then it's still a relatively active ecosystem even if it's not quite to the heights of 2021 so i don't think you know i don't think these dreams are necessarily dead but it does raise a big question as to what drives the price higher um and they become gas a separate thing yeah they become gas fees but like even for the l2s for eth there's been talk about maybe like base could move to stable coins being the gas fee for an l2 right um and then that's it that's a dangerous narrative for some of this stuff um i don't know it's not something that i believe in i'm just seeing it and i can tell you if there's a if if in a year's time we have bitcoin worth what two to three trillion and stable coins are worth a trillion or bumping up against that there's going to be a lot of questions i think about like what are we doing here with a lot of them um so or at least like the the idea that they are currencies and not just um gas tokens i think i think might be uh might be called into question more and more over the next year particularly as you start to put other real assets on chain like if rwa has become big there's gonna be questions about other other coins as well it's i don't know i i'm still a believer you know i like i like the ideas of our own native currencies but i can see this trend i can see the foothills of this trend happening and i can i can tell you that's going to be the narrative that's going to be a strong one in in um in six months who knows so what with this kind of price action and if this continues for the next i don't know like this it continues for another three to six months what are you uh what are you doing like is there anything that you're looking at apart from the obvious boring thing which is just a dca majors um is there anything that you're looking at that you think could create some alpha here um is there anything you maybe have your eye on but maybe haven't put risk on are you even bothering to look for that stuff or are you just kind of taking a bit of a break from from markets like what's the i mean i've got a lot going on no i have but i have been um you know i was in jlp and then i shifted a lot of that more into bitcoin um i've actually been in my dgen stuff i've been doing a lot of um d5 style farming and some of that's actually been delta neutral some of that's been like um like on things like sonic for example you can earn like 300 percent delta neutral doing some of these strategies um that's not been a bad thing and you can get like the airdrop and stuff so like i've been doing some of that but because i had so much going on in personal and then it's really i i moved more i went from defensive to a bit more risk on but buy bitcoin and then and then just doing some degen stuff but not like meme coins you know what i mean degen defy is what i've been basically paying attention to which i i've had to get you in a couple of times but you've never really been a defy guy no i think the problem i have with dj and defy number one i've never made money on it in the past number two um if you live somewhere where you pay income tax on crypto staking that becomes a very painful thing to do because if you have staking income for example you owe tax on it at the time at which you get the interest so i'm presumably the staking income is in the native token so if it's worth 10 bucks and you're getting it paid like every single you know in real time every single second you owe tax on the value of that coin at that time now unless you're instantly selling selling 50 % of it each time you get it paid um you're going to have to calculate some tax amount and then you're gonna have to owe that amount later on so i think what people sometimes get tripped up here is like you make i don't know 500 000 worth of staking income based on the token price at the time at which you got the income and then the whole thing just goes down which eventually all you know all the dg and d5 stuff eventually does but you didn't sell your token in time so you have this massive tax bill but what you're trying massive income tax bill but what you're trying to sell is worth a lot lower and you can't in many places you can't offset your income tax with capital gains tax so it's a very risky game i think if you if you don't somewhere you don't sell the rewards i agree that for you more difficult like you don't sell the rewards but um yeah no there's definitely some interesting stuff there like which i've been more paying attention to but i've definitely been setting myself up for a for a longer period here like uh i definitely did not nail the exit um like from trump into melania like at least i went more defensive after melania um but yeah it feels like we could be here for a while um there has been some degen stuff going on so i don't think you've been paying attention to money has definitely been leaving solana that that that's kind of clear but it's been the two blockchains you seem to be seeing the majority or maybe three i would say bmb interestingly like bmb uh whenever because i do a daily newsletter check it out mandaminutes.com um and all the runners at the moment the daily runners as we need to speak in meme words are all on bmb um there seems to be a little bit of a season going on there and that's been one asset since cz kind of got out of jail and he's definitely been pushing it a little bit more and some things they're doing there that's one that's held up bmb is basically flat to where it was um in march uh so it's held up uh remarkably well um and it's kind of held up the best over the last month or month or so it looks like on the 5th of uh november again it's also kind of where it was right now so it's even slightly up slightly even more than that so it's uh that one's held up pretty well tron as well which is another one of these asian um star blockchains which which has really been used for for non-sanctioned countries under sanctions to move stable coins but they've been building out a bit more of a um of a degen aspect for them that they partnered with pump fun for then you um pump fun launching their own decks uh so you're gonna see tron go on there and then i would say some of the dg and d5 stuff so like things like um sonic has seen a lot of activity like that's gone above a billion even 1.1 billion tbl now so those are the three i see a lot of activity on um i don't know if there's like there's tons of money to be made like what i just said like it's more like longer term strategies or maybe you do catch the bmb runner of the day um a lot of them seem to be related to the the binance team like every single week there's a new coin which like cz bought or is linked back to the binance team or but they have a they have this thing called binance alpha which um i'm sure you're aware of where they like list new coins a lot of those new coins over the last month or so have been have been bmbia b coins yeah so there's been like a big shift to right right binance has actually been way more aggressive on listing its own native coins and you get a b you get a binance listing your coin kind of goes to 200 million it's it's kind of par for the course for most of these so there has been like a yeah that's been a trend i've seen um and i know some of the guys that we were in chats with who kind of do trading in the trenches they've largely moved over to bmb um i don't know do you think that's that's like really worrying for solano do you think solana still looks okay here at like 125 ish it's i don't know if it's necessarily worrying for solana i do like solana here at this level i think it's quite attractive um obviously pump fund revenues are down a lot the ai sector is down a lot so the kind of the two big tail ones that had at the beginning of this year um are significantly weaker and it's quite clear to me that finance obviously put some capital behind some of these bnb tokens and stuff and trying to take this opportunity to bring the activity back to find out smart chain but um i think it's too premature to call the death of solana i think we've seen people do it yeah we've seen people do it time time again um i do expect it to have a resurgence in activity i think and you'll probably see some point this year where you know some of these are old you know i think you've had a big meme coin crash on seoul and stuff is down 80 90 but i do think you'll have some sort of a bounce at some point in time um during this chop actually i do think you'll have like a some sort of a meme season or an ai season during this chart which is likely still to be on solana i think um so what's crazy is solana to put in perspective right it's about to be flipped by usdc as a stable coin um it's it's market cap is 64 billion bmb is at 90 now um so it's full 50 above it xrp is more than double the market cap of solana right now yeah um so obviously it's way too late to be like oh yeah watch out but like it it really has the one that really is interesting me is that like you're starting to see major blockchains like i just said get flipped by stablecoins um xrp is the third biggest crypto again sorry no usdt is the third biggest crypto again 143 billion um there's world you know where it goes bitcoin usdt usdc um i don't think that's that crazy genuinely uh and i think it's something that we could see at the end of this year um which would be uh i think we would it would have really startled some people i think this feels like you're now taking the path to becoming a bitcoin maxi or an anti anti everything else like i'm just saying i can see it happening like i'm not actually i'm not a bitcoin maxi but there is the time to own bitcoin like i've just said and there's like in these periods of it going sideways like if we start to see stable coin regulation happen in the us which seems very likely by by uh by the summer and then you start to see even um rwa regulation happen those assets aren't priced in ETH.

35:38Those assets are priced in dollars. And you'll see more and more dollars come on chain. And I just think it's going to be an interesting narrative here. It's something that I think is going to question a lot of crypto for a lot of people who came in and thought like, right, Bitcoin and then we're going to have tons of other currencies, our own native currencies. Well, what we're starting to see is if you include all stablecoins, which is$230 billion, that just flipped ETH it just flipped ETH's market cap and that's that's just something to pay attention to yeah there's nothing how do you it's not a trade that can be expressed is it really how would you yeah just own stable coins some of the biggest M &A you're seeing right now is people buying stable coin companies because most of these don't pay us native yield right by the circle IPO.

36:38They just clipped the coupon. Some of them have in the past said they would do that. But, you know, I don't know. It's not something that I really have like a strong view on like how to trade it. But other than I see it happening and I can see where this will be in six months. The only things that are up only right now are stable coins. And I actually think that will accelerate. Like I do think we could triple that figure after that stablecoin regulation comes in the US. So there's going to be, maybe the crypto total market cap can go back up to like all time high, you know? Through stablecoin.

37:19But it's through stablecoins. And everyone will be like, oh God, this is the worst possible way that that could have happened. You've really ruined my Friday. I'm just saying, I'm seeing it. like you'll hear about it in a in a few months trust me on that um but yeah one thing i in that world i do still think you can have like runners like meme coins i still think could have a period right you might buy some of those coins i think what it really questions actually is the coins that that are non-culture related you know the coins that are like just meant to be coins that you would own and you you buy stuff with which is a lot of the l1 coins really rather than like the culture coins or um that that's what i'd be more worried about you know uh which is other than maybe their use case increases with gas like solana has done a very good job of making sure that sol is like at the heart of everything right um so you can imagine a lot of the value still accrues back to that in terms like the the validators um so there's still value there but the number one collateral for defi could very quickly become stable coins here maybe what we need is like a we need a meme coin of usdc or usdt so you can actually have some i know they haven't in the past but something so we can actually have some capital appreciation otherwise yeah so one thing that has happened in terms of the other dgen stuff is um it's nfts have you seen this this like resurgence it kind of happened yeah happened in a few different ways over the last week or so so we've had um sam spratt who's probably one of the best known artists in the space did a very very uh successful drop um raised i think two and a half million on the first drop and then the assets have all done like a two or three x since they uh since they were released and um he does like these gamified drops with like almost like a competition or a prize at the end of them in previous ones it's been one of ones um and his one of ones go for at times millions of dollars so it's like it seems like a quite a fun way to do it and then just yesterday we had pudgy penguins um announce a pengu nft etf which will include pengu that they're calling but also the nfts um and i've just generally seen more activity from nfts You've seen a bit of an ecosystem happening on Abstract there, which is also linked to Pudgy Penguins.

39:55You've seen some of the other collections start to rally back and definitely are as well, taking a bit more center stage. Do you think that will be the thing again? Do you think that's what we're going to be playing around with the next six months to trade it around? Are we doing a REC ETF? Have you spoken to Luca? Yeah, that could be interesting. i'm curious to see if it gets approved and um what the follow-on demand for it is but it's nice it's an interesting way to but it's a smart way especially for brand like pudgy penguins to open up investment into what you're doing to the masses who maybe don't want to touch crypto but if you don't have if you have an ipo if you don't have public equity if that makes sense and you know obviously like a meme coin isn't any form of equity but it does move on sentiment and if pudgy penguins do really well i'm sure the price of pudgy penguins nfts will go higher and the price of pengu will go higher so um i think it's a really smart thing to do to open up potential investment for people who are perhaps not crypto native but start to get familiar with the brand um and want to express a sentimental trade in it i guess nfts coming back we'll see i'm still not convinced we'll ever see the mania we saw in 2021 i think you will continue to have pockets of performance you had obviously um sam spratt stuff do really well and then you had something called the good vibes club i think it was a new nft mint that did really well after the mint as well so it's nice to see some activity and good price action return there but um you know um specifically sam's thing like that's i feel like that's very unique to sam it doesn't really matter if he was in a bull market or a bear market it still would have done really well and so it's hard to extrapolate that to the rest of the nft market and i still don't think we'll ever see the same mania we saw in 2021 but we may have these pockets of performance now and again i don't know maybe maybe if there's absolutely nothing going on and people start coming up with cool creations again and and stuff we could see it and i think that feeling of like minting something that's unrevealed and then finding out what you get post-reveal i think is a very novel feeling that won't ever really go away so maybe there's there's a chance you know maybe maybe there is but um i think it will take a lot to really it will take a few projects doing really well going crazy for people to want to jump onto the band by getting anything people are going to do something you know like what we tend to see in this sort of market is they do have to do something i agree with that but everyone's still a dgen so uh and as much as i think yeah and you know you can do some dgen d5 stuff and it feels as though meme coins people at least on solana like people are too scared to get back in the water right now you're seeing i don't know how many times we can do like cz bought this coin it's going to get listed on binance like i i don't know if that's like a fun meta for people like enough so i think that people will find something that they want to gamble on do you know what i mean um so i do agree like the gambling never stops um the gambling definitely never stops and eventually there's something that a handful of people make a lot of money on from gambling which then brings in the mass brings the masses back in so i do expect something like that to happen which is kind of what i was alluding to at the beginning talking about you know the chop and and it's almost like you want bitcoin to stay stable for gambling activity to start happening because then people feel like they want to sell their bitcoin to gamble the next thing if it's not really moving so um i wouldn't be surprised if that happens if it's nfts i'm not really sure but could be you know never say never you know yeah uh i'm i'm as i look through the different stuff that people are doing that's the space where i see people having the most fun again um i see like in mean coin you see like fart coins doing okay but other than that it's it's stuff out there um and i think some people are doing stuff on these prediction markets a bit like polymarket and and myriad and um kalshi but i uh i think maybe we see some some cool nrt stuff the other like the game five stuff as well has generally been destroyed during this during this period as well there's been a lot of like criticism again for like whole teams missing the the bull market to release products and we're going to be another three years before a triple a game comes to crypto so um i don't know what else we're gonna do um yeah i think that's that's generally it for what we were gonna see this week it does feel as though we could be doing this show for a while um where where we're looking at smaller stuff and bitcoin's probably stakes sticking around 83k um just feel like that's the best uh still has the best risk reward out there at the moment unless you're going to try and do some really like dgnd stuff like i was talking about before well we did we did do we did podcast every single day throughout 2023 when nothing happened for that's rough yeah that weeks and months um it's almost like you'd rather prices go down so you have something to talk about but um i have i literally have no doubt that something in the next two or three weeks something's going to come up which everyone will be like oh damn why didn't i see that um so i would encourage ai i do think ai's probably got one of the better shots coming back and coming back strong i still believe that and that's the only thing i've really been adding to um on dips i do think there's a lot of the big bigger projects that are still building and creating stuff i think you will see new launches come out in the next um in the next few weeks i just don't think the ai season and the air rally we had um november to january will be the only time it happens i don't think it's going to just go away so um i would agree that's something i think is worth keeping track of even if you don't have risk in it but um that's sort which has been like my altcoin, my altcoin bet outside of majors.

46:13All right. Well, should we have back on the Arch public, guys? Yeah, let's get up with you last week. Seems like a good time to talk about what's been going on in Bitcoin, what's been going on with the sort of trades that you can put on. Obviously, we're partnering with them at the moment. And I don't think there could have really been a better time to partner with these guys. uh bitcoin basically staying exactly where it is and just going up and down and you're getting to pick out trades yeah let's uh let's bring on uh andrew and tillman welcome back guys let's see guys there there is clearly an alpha money moment from mando moments ago and he said listen i'm looking at fart coin and it's doing pretty well that's there that's the money shot for the podcast right there i'm looking at fart coin and it's doing pretty well i'm like man this is why i listen to the show this is why i'm here is looking like a multi-cycle meme uh to me like it's the pepe it's the pepe of next cycle the pepe of next cycle i like it well thanks for having us on guys you know the um you're you're right about these moments of you know boringness will we be at 83 in six months that that may be the case.

47:34I don't know. But ArchPublic, we build products that are here to take advantage of volatility. Bitcoin just overall over its life cycle has been nine to 25 times more volatile than traditional markets. So again, in the past week, we've seen two buys way down at the lows, 78 and just at 80. And then we had just an extraordinary execution at almost 87 at the top a few days ago. And again, these are algorithmically automated trades, which you can't pull off on your own unless you're lucky or you're not asleep or you're not at dinner. This is all happening with your hands off. And so true to Mando's point, when you're in these moments and it's and it's not just number go up um you know having a product that you can rely on to generate some level of alpha to generate some level return is important the other point that mando made that i think is is probably prophetic are we at a point now based on the regulatory environment where we end up with the top three tokens being bitcoin usdt and usdc i i i would put money on that, to be honest.

48:53I would as well. Yeah, I would put money on that, Tim, and you can talk to that a little bit more. Well, I just think that the Bitcoin dominance number for me has been the key indicator of this cycle. I think this cycle's, especially on the Bitcoin front, it's being driven by institutions and not so much by retail. I think retail's been bored with Bitcoin, honestly, for quite some time now. I think that's the point of having automated tools, is to cure your boredom, but still get done what you need to get done. You should never be a slave to your emotion, whether it's exuberance or boredom in terms of making decisions on a day-to-day basis.

49:31And I think when you see the volatility of Bitcoin enter into a real choppy range, some people don't know how to trade that. And so they push their money other places and they start to sell their Bitcoin to kind of get those emotional highs that they're used to when Bitcoin's on these parabolic moves. And in my experience as a trader, those are the times where you refocus your energy on your strategy and what you want over the next time period. And you retool that into something that's going to be executed hands off because the emotional side of trading is really the enemy here. Bitcoin's chop is an opportunity, just like Michael Saylor says all the time.

50:17It's a gift. It is the gift of Bitcoin is the volatility of it, both up and down. And so having something that's sitting there waiting for that volatility and executing on it is an opportunity that most people don't take advantage of, I guess, in the Bitcoin space. And it would cure a lot of the boredom because there's a lot of money to be made in chop, to be honest with you. There's, it's a, it's a, it's a, if you know what you're doing, there's a tremendous opportunity because when you look at how many times Bitcoin over the last six months has crossed 90 ,000, for example, a lot, and look at the variance off of that$90 ,000 price, it's been plus or minus, you know, 18 ,000 on each side of it, almost that, that, that's a lot of range.

51:02And that's a lot of movement in a tight uh period of time so take advantage of it yeah i uh i agree you feel like you're on the front foot with this sort of stuff um rather than just like being uh being reactive can we maybe go through what trades were done this week um i saw you tweet it out but you've got some like common ding dingers of a trade um it would be good to maybe look at like what you could have done yeah yeah let's take a look at it if you if you look at the tweet that i put out There's a couple of things to discuss. One, in that time period, over a nine day period, there was a purchase, you know, at 78 and change and there was a purchase almost right at 80.

51:44And then there was a small sale as it bumped up to 84 and change. And then there was another sale that happened up at a right around 87. So the commentary there is this, our arbitrage strategy, it's a 2.25x long bias. So every time you're making a purchase at that 78 and 80 level, you're buying nearly three times as much Bitcoin as you sell whenever there's a sell signal that goes through and you sell a little bit. So you're accumulating Bitcoin along the way at price levels that are beneficial to what you're trying to get accomplished. And then you're generating a little bit of cash yield. So beyond the levels of, you know, 78, 80 and then sales at 84 and 86, you know, we also put out a case study that you could find at our website, archpublic.com.

52:42that case study shows you that if you're using our arbitrage strategy, as well as our intelligent accumulation strategy, which by the way, our Bitcoin algo is not just some binary output and only does one thing. You could be running two, three, four, five strategies at the same time, a truly institutional tool. But if you're using those both at the same time, this is a question we get every single time we do a demo for folks. Well, does this really beat buy and hold? Look, if I buy Bitcoin and hold it for four years, I should have a lot more money. Does it beat buy and hold? So we put out case studies that show four-year timeframes where our arbitrage plus intelligent accumulation, our algo, absolutely crushes buy and hold.

53:28So you put in 100K four years ago, you'd have 185K now of buy and hold. If you put it in 100K in our algorithms four years ago, you'd have nearly$300 ,000. So it's 2x your return. And by the way, it's a lot of fun along the way, right? You're taking arbitrage stuff, you're generating cash yield, you can take that cash and do whatever you want with it, but if you play it the way that we've set it up, you end up with significantly outperforming buy and hold with the asset itself. Yeah, so that's quite... You go, it's just... the last three or four weeks it's just incredible like how perfect the environment is for it and um i have the arbitrage strategy on and it's just like um you know i've got these like crazy prints of buying bitcoin in the 70s like like 80 um and subsequently selling it at like 85k 87k and it's like it would have been impossible for me to humanly do that i think um so what it is yeah if i'm not mistaken the 87k sail print based on the time difference you'd have been asleep yeah exactly right um and and that's the that's the value and the power of a tool like this is the stamina is way beyond the stamina of a human the ability to use zero motions way beyond the ability for a human to do that.

55:03And again, then, even if we move out of a volatility range-bound type of deal, there are other stock versions of the Bitcoin algo which will significantly benefit from that. So if you're using arbitrage, which benefits from volatility, and you're using intelligent accumulation, that accumulation part is going to do extraordinary things when there's a lack of volatility or when there's a sprint higher, right? So you have the ability to work with our team and say, well, I want to get this, this, and this accomplished with Bitcoin or Ethereum or Solana, by the way. And I want to do it over a six-month period or a three-month period or a two-year period.

55:45Click, click, click, click. Your hands are off. You're just watching it with your phone. It's extraordinary. And really seeing is believing. We could spend all day talking about the nuances of how automation gives you an advantage over when you're trading manually. I don't know if you noticed this, Obi, but if you look at your charts, the exits are always on green candles and the entries are always on red candles. That's a very slight nuance that most people don't pick up on. But it's extremely hard as a human being to manually be selling into the buying pressure of a green candle. And conversely, it's very difficult to be buying into the downward pressure of a sell-off.

56:28But that is where quick execution and taking advantage of those turnarounds or those exhaustion points in the market. And so if you want to do it on a shorter time frame, you can put it on a four-hour or six-hour or one-hour, and you can measure the velocity of those indicators and enter those positions on a much shorter time frame. But you can also do it on a daily, monthly. So you can customize it, to Andrew's point, to not only the individual outcomes and the timeframes that you want, but to the market conditions that are best presenting themselves at any given moment. So if it's a real trending, choppy market, you can have the vast majority of your trading capital operating in some sort of a trading arbitrage manner inside of that trend.

57:11And if it starts to pivot into a bull run, then guess what? You've accumulated during the arbitrage all of the losing trades that you're going to essentially capitalize on during that run. But you're also going to be able to then change your settings to create bias for that bull run so that you're buying all the way up the ladder and creating a new rule set and a new structure as it pertains to a buying schedule. So what are the different strategies that you guys have? You said, is it multiple strategies that you can invest in or how does it work? Yeah. So if you download the free product, you can explore.

57:49There's about four different stock strategies right now that you can operate across three different symbols, BTC, ETH, and Solana. We'll be adding XRP here in the very short future. And so if you take your allocation and divide it up to your individual needs and or desires, there's an infinite number of strategies that you can deploy based upon dividing up that capital. So again, to Andrew's point, let's say I have a deep desire to accumulate Bitcoin and I have a set end date that I need to accumulate it by. Well, I can set a schedule and I can dollar cost average in an intelligent way, not just blindly at a given date and time, but when the market dips, buying through that schedule.

58:38But at the same time, I can have a set schedule for a range. Let's say I have a set number of dollars that I'd like to place in Bitcoin between$50 ,000 and$60 ,000, and I'm convinced it's going to go there. Well, I can create an entire schedule of dozens of purchases within that range at different dollar amounts and set it and forget it. So that if I'm asleep one night and we see a nasty wick go into that range, I've capitalized on something that I couldn't otherwise have capitalized on. So there's an infinite number of ways to set it up. That's kind of the fun of it. But if you download the free version and start playing around with it and use our videos and our manuals to familiarize yourself with it, it will definitely bring up a lot of questions.

59:25Schedule a time to talk to us. We've got a lot of great folks that can jump on the line with you, share a screen with you, and show you how to work all of the feature sets and all of the different ways to trade it differently. To give you exactly the number, if you just used our stock strategies inside of the Bitcoin algo, there's currently four stock strategies where you just click a button, that strategy is overlaid on top of your capital, and it runs. There's arbitrage, and then there's three versions of intelligent accumulation that have different parameters in them and are acting in a different way to accumulate Bitcoin for you.

1:00:03Same with Ethereum, same with Solana. And a reminder to everybody on this call and watching, you can get involved here for free. It's 10K in annual transactions. So you can have the Bitcoin algorithm, the Ethereum algorithm, the Solana algorithm all for free. And we're also running a pretty serious promotion right now where if you download our software, our Bitcoin algorithm, the free version, If you sign up with us and you follow Triarch Public's X account, you're going to be in a drawing to get two industry passes to the Bitcoin conference this year in Vegas. So sign up for the free product.