REKT Vision: Jamie Coutts EXPOSES Top Bull Run Predictions for 2024

0:00Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools, and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.

0:28Hey guys, welcome to this week's Wrecked Vision. This week, the show is not live. We're actually recording this on Thursday afternoon, November the 14th, Eastern time. It's actually evening my time and it's probably tomorrow in Jamie's time. But that's because Mando's off and we have Jamie all the way from Australia. Jamie Coots, as you guys are probably familiar with, is the chief crypto analyst at Real Vision. Jamie, welcome to RectVision. Hey, great to be on, Obi. From the future too, my man. Yeah, exactly. You'll have all the right information that I'll need to make my decision tomorrow, I guess.

1:04Yeah. No, thanks very much for having me on. I'm a big fan of the show. Yeah. No, thanks for being here. How have you found it in the last week? Yeah, look, last week's been okay. The week before, that was the week, right? I think, you know, I'm feeling pretty tired. There's a lot to write about at the moment. And it's really like picking what to write about and set that up for the pro-crypto community. But last week was just, you know, it was a tear. It was a realization of like so many different things all at once. But yeah, it's markets are settling in now a little bit. You know, you've seen pullbacks and it's at this stage where you start to see like who are the like, who are going to be like the true performers going forward because everything exploded.

1:52Things are catching up and then, you know, there'll be profit taking. And then from there, you obviously, okay, where's the leadership coming from? So yeah, it's a great time to be in crypto markets. We've all been suffering for eight months. I like that point that you made on this kind of now where the market leaders get discovered kind of thing. Because I think when you have a big move, either a big move down or a big move higher, it's always led by something. And in big moves down, you always have like, I don't know, a handful of things that the first to rally back will never really move lower.

2:23And that's kind of like when the market shows its hand. And I think when you have stable price action, it's difficult to really judge the technicals to the naked eye unless you're an expert chartist. But when you have these big parallel moves across the whole space, and then you see like, oh, wow, this is the thing that was up three times more than everything else. Or this is the thing that didn't move lower when everything else did. That's when, in my opinion, the hands get shown and you kind of get a sense of like, okay, this is what someone out there is buying for whatever reason it is. Whether they're smart money, whether there's a big short base on it, I don't know.

2:56And I feel like it's something that's held true, not only in crypto, but back when I used to trade credit, it was the same thing. It was like, it's always been like a bond I was short, trying to take low and the market put. And then you get a phone call and it's like, ah, I see you've quoted these bonds lower. Can you offer some? It's like, ah. It's always a lie. Yeah, like the counter, like the relative performance is always something that I've been most interested in just trying to rank all of these assets to see where the pockets of relative strength are. And it's hard in crypto because it's an unstructured market or relatively unstructured.

3:35It's getting a lot better. And I showed you earlier like the sector classifications that are now coming through. So the ability to sit down like effectively in front of like a Bloomberg S type screen in the future and be able to say, okay, this sector is outperforming this sector and this sector is underperforming. That's all coming. But it's at the moment, people are just like glued to the coinmarketcap.com or CoinGecko and they just see like 200 assets and they don't know what's what. So it's difficult. Yeah, definitely. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading, but haven't dared try?

4:11The futures market is more active now than ever, and Plus 500 Futures is the perfect place to start. Plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, crypto, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade from anywhere right from your phone. Deposit with a minimum of$100 and experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open. Not sure if you're ready? Not a problem.

4:53Plus 500 gives you an unlimited risk-free demo account with charts and analytics tools for you to practice on. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. visit us.plus500.com to learn more trading and futures involve the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone not all applicants will qualify plus 500 it's trading with a plus well i think we're gonna have a good show today we have a few interesting topics to talk about obviously uh we're not at a loss for things to mention given the price action in the last week um before we get started just want to quickly mention um as you guys know we are organizing a Real Vision in-person event in Miami.

5:33It's going to be the crypto gathering that's going to take place at the end of January. If you want to find out more information and secure tickets, head over to realvision.com forward slash CG2025. That's realvision.com forward slash CG2025. You can get discounted tickets right now. That offer will end on November the 28th. I will definitely be there. So I hope to see everyone there. Are you planning on attending, Jamie? It's a long way for you, I guess, but... There's a chance. there's a chance there's always a chance always a chance um all right so look let's i thought we'd kick it off with just like a general market chat um we had a great week in the first week post trump but the last week is really where the meat of the price action has come um as things stand bitcoin is up about 17 to 18 percent in the space of a week it's a move uh from about 76k to almost 90k i think we hit an all-time high of almost 93k at some point last week um it feels like and you know we've i've been doing the show with mando for a good few months now it feels like this was the move we've all been waiting for post the trump win finally bitcoin through all-time highs to 88 85 88 90k and i think many people out there had potential like bitcoin tops for this cycle at these levels or potentially even maybe like 90k or 100k and we're kind of there or thereabout so i'm just curious like what's your take on the move in the last week did that happen faster than you expected it to and what was your expectation for like the bitcoin top price for this cycle and has that changed given the price action we've seen in the last week have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet.

7:27With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy metals forex and beyond with a simple and intuitive platform you could trade anytime anywhere experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with plus 500 with over 20 years of experience plus 500 is your gateway to the markets visit us.plus500.com to learn more trading and futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone not all applicants will qualify plus 500 it's trading with a plus

8:19Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. It definitely hasn't changed. And I think the price move that we've seen is 100 % to be expected. I mean, like no one has a crystal ball. But when you get a resistance level, which extends four years back, essentially, I mean, so we had obviously broken the high back in Q1, but it was pretty much a failed break.

9:10And then we traded lower. So four years of essentially touching a resistance level and failing each and every time, always in TA and in markets, you know once it breaks, it breaks with really high velocity. And that's exactly what we saw. We saw all the built-up shorts and all the derivatives positions around that top because you have a built-in expectation and market belief that it won't break. All have to be unwound very, very quickly. that just adds fuel to the upside move and you get this really strong high velocity break so that's pretty much in line the thing that I find interesting and I put this on Twitter yesterday which is always like always tricky because you know everyone's long real vision subscribers have been on the right side of this trade you know from very very early on everyone's super conscious of like when the top is when the top is everyone's got the trigger finger looking to sell will take profits.

10:12So I probably did the worst possible thing and just highlighted a few concerns that were coming to my attention. But it doesn't change the long-term outlook. And those things are just short-term macro liquidity indicators because some of the framework that I have catches things on a more short to medium term, like the momentum of these things. And DXY above 106 is not generally good for risk assets. Yields rising is not good for risk assets generally. The Treasury volatility index above 100, it was as high as 130 recently, is generally not good because that's a collateral of the entire financial system.

10:57And so I just pointed out that these things are still like, they're not coming down or they're not moving the way that we would like them to. and we started to see PERP's funding rates get as high as like 40%, which is not as high as they can go. And it's only like one or two days and these things can sustain themselves for weeks usually like we did in Q1. But it was just like more of a warning. It's like, okay, Bitcoin's at$90 ,000. It was, as you said, like$70 ,000 a week and a half ago or even like low$60 ,000 a week and a half ago. Don't get over your skis here. And, you know, if you've got leverage, this might be the time to take it off.

11:40But in terms of long term, I read some reports for Real Vision Pro Crypto, which went pretty deep into this question of like, when does the cycle likely top and where could Bitcoin get to? Which, you know, is always a tricky thing to analyze because you know for 100 % that you're going to be wrong on every level. It's just my aim with these reports and this analysis to try and just get directionally right and within a fairly close timeframe. So that report looked at using just global liquidity and the relationship that it has had with the Bitcoin price may not continue in the future as high. That relationship may not stay as high because markets are non-stationary, blah, blah, blah, blah.

12:26But we looked at the sort of relationship between tops in global M2 and Bitcoin And it looks like Q3, potentially, if it's just a normal cycle. So Global M2 would probably top early in 2026. And Bitcoin always tends to top before because it detects the rate of change, the slowdown in Global M2, because that's a forewarning of what's to come, which is tightening. And based on a couple of different sort of probabilities, I saw Bitcoin potentially getting to about 189 ,000. So that's kind of my long-term cycle view. And of course, this can extend, it can contract. We may get something like in 2021 where it gets really heated and there is extreme positioning in the futures market.

13:17Funding blows out and stays blown out for a very, very long time. Positioning is all one way. Catalyst event and it just knocks the wind out of Bitcoin sales. Who knows? But I think this time it's actually going to be the opposite. we'd probably get an extension of the cycle. It's just, we can get into that, but that's essentially the long-term view. And out of that, I also made some forecasts around other sectors and the total market cap. It's been interesting to watch the funding aspect of this cycle, because as you mentioned in 2021, you'd have periods of weeks with funding, like 80%, 90%, 100 % in some cases.

13:54And obviously on some altcoins, it would even be through that. and we did have we did sort of have that at the beginning of this year in Q1 this year and the end of last year we had you know 60-70 % maybe like 50-60 % funding on like Bitcoin eating the soul for a long time it's actually it seems to have stabilized or gone a lot lower and for a while all throughout summer obviously it was flat or maybe even negative in some cases but I think two things that have changed in the funding angle now compared to 21 which makes me look at it less because I feel like I'm not getting all the information is number one, the existence of ETFs.

14:31So you have all these TradFi guys putting on the basis trades where they're taking the other side, shorting perps basically and owning ETFs. And the rise of Athena as well, which just didn't exist last year, which also captures the funding rates. So now when I get funding rates, I'm like, no, sometimes it looks like funding rates are low and you naturally assume, oh, that means like OI is probably quite low and there's not much risk in the system. But then you go look at OI and it's like a ton of OI out there and you realize there's this massive gross risk, but like low funding, which in itself is a bit concerning to me sometimes.

15:11But it's hard because I feel like we don't get the full picture, you know, because we don't see, you know, you don't see who, like the people who are taking risk now, perhaps it's like, you don't know if it's delta neutral or directional risk. It's tough to really judge, I think. Yeah, it's a lot harder. Like that one measure of funding I don't think has as much signal or probably what I should say is going forward won't have as much signal. It actually was perfect for the Q1 top. Like it pulled it wonderfully well. I usually put a Z score on it just to look at, you know, how extreme is the move relative to its history.

15:48And so anyway, that was, it worked really well in Q1 and it's not there at the moment, but like you've got more products, You've got all the micro strategy derivative ETFs and the 2x leverage and all this stuff. And there's probably going to be a whole private market of leverage that's going to grow up this cycle, which is like super concerning always. So it's going to be harder to detect. Maybe the perps market loses a little bit of its signal because there's just other ways to play Bitcoin this cycle. and yeah, you've got, you know, big R players who are now shorting the perps. So it's a more sophisticated player.

16:31Yeah, so it's trickier. I think it's almost like even more concerning now if funding goes a lot higher because it means, you know, all these guys who are taking the other side and putting on that basis trade, it kind of means their mark-to-market is getting incrementally worse. And especially if you're like a big tradfire shop doing it, like you can't just like run that position forever. Like if your mark-to-market gets worse, and therefore your P &L gets worse on a daily or monthly basis, eventually someone comes to you and taps you on the shoulder. You have to like, you know, unwind it. And again, like back when I was at Barclays, it was the same thing.

17:03People would, um, put on the arm on like the crossover CDS index versus single names. And there's one point where the, I've just got to like this crazy level because of like various technicals and all these guys had to like stop out of the trade on literally a Delta neutral, neutral trade. They all stopped out and just cause like, cause all the, the gross risk was massive. So just cause all these like crazy things to happen. the market. So like, I'm actually like even more concerned now on funding levels, because if it starts to go like north of 50%, you're just thinking like, why aren't these guys taking the other side of the trade anymore?

17:34How are they out of their risk appetite for it? And that's the kind of, that's the kind of thing, which is like, it's a little bit, a little bit dicey, I think. Yeah, that's a really interesting perspective. Cause I mean, I was just an equity guy, right? So I hardly dabbled in the derivatives market. I always looked at envy over the derivatives guys and also the fixed income guys because they were generally the smarter guys in the room. So, yeah, it's a bit of a worry if it stays sustained for sure. Like it was just a couple of days spike and then it has come back but probably hasn't come back as much as you would hope it would.

18:07But once you start seeing it like day after day and it stretches into weeks like that, I think it was like February of 2021 all the way through to May, the elevated funding rates. It was the end of the bull run for Bitcoin, really. That was the top, even though it did make a new all-time high. It just knocked the wind out of the entire cycle. So, yeah, it is a big concern. I just got to hope the ETF spot buyers are just overwhelming the derivatives players, which actually there's an argument to say that they are at this point. I mean, the demand is strong for these ETFs and it's overshadowing some of that expansion in OI.

18:51Yeah, absolutely. It seems so. I mean, it's the perfect environment really because 2021, if you're not crypto native and you're trying to put on the crypto trade, it was kind of like sign up for Coinbase and then you don't really have to go through the KYC if you're not in a jurisdiction where they offer it easily and then you just have a completely different app. Whereas now you can just go out and then buy the ETFs in your stocks and shares portfolio. We spoke about some of the top signals that you identified there with regard to money supplies. Is there anything else you would look out for here to give us a better indication?

19:26We spoke about funding, obviously, as well. But anything else you'd look out for to give us an indication of approaching the top or warning signs or just something for people to monitor, I guess, as we get to uncharted territory in terms of Bitcoin price? Yeah, I mean, we'll see it. the macro indicators and they generally have been pretty good they they're always late they're because they're momentum based they'll have to top and then it'll have to break a significant trend or momentum filter and then you'll sort of have a clear indication that this is this is you know potentially a top and if it happens after a sustained run then it just increases that that likelihood although at the time everyone will be so bullish and we'll be laying on extra risk that to convince yourself or to convince others that that's the case will be the challenge.

20:19But in terms of like Bitcoin centric type or market centric type indicators, like tried and true MVRV on Bitcoin is a great indicator. So what I look for on my dashboard for Bitcoin, which I don't know if I want to show this, But like there's really three things that I think are quite effective, which is like Bitcoin network profitability measures. So MVRV, which is the difference between the market cap or the market or the price versus the realized price. So the last value of all the coins moves on chain. So it's like the aggregate cost price. And that just captures the unrealized gain. And when that extends way above the cost price, it's just human nature that profit-taking will happen.

21:20The question is, how much does it need to extend? So if you put it on it, like if you just use a standard like Z-score, you get a measure for that. Another one is NUPL or the pure multiple, which is just looking at fees relative to where they were. So fees always spike. There's always more activity on chain or an increased activity in a bull market. And then it reaches fever pitch. And so if you can just look at how much they're extended relative to their past, and I have these Z-scores up. And I don't know if you can see that at the moment, Ovi. but for these ones here we're in the so what I'm looking at in this column here is the four year percentage rank of the z score for these measures and for these three measures we are in the 62nd percentile for MVROV so that would tell me that there's based on sort of the one year look back period and beyond that still a lot of room to go um but we're over like over 50 like we're in the second half the you know the bull market phase where things will get crazy and this would could shoot up very very quickly and so once it gets up to sort of like 80 or 90 percent generally you're on notice um and so the question is like how do you play it do you um if you are looking to take some chips off for this cycle, then do you just start like layering out or do you let momentum roll over and then use that as your signal?

22:53And that's really, you know, that's a personal thing. So all of these things at the moment, whilst they are above 50%, above 60%, they're not yet at levels that would indicate we're even close to anything close to our market top. so did this did this stuff get to 80 90 percent in 21 and then was that sort of like timed with that top basically so did it i don't know i guess october november time maybe or maybe even before that yeah yeah it um it actually got there with the may top right um which was we call it like the china ban but it was really just over extension the china ban was just a um the catalyst that cascaded the proper technique um yeah it did like if i haven't got the chart here just on hand but like if you look at the mvrv um overlaid with price is still one of the best indicators the pure multiple um is again like exactly the same it just picks the tops and picks the bottoms so well and so you combine them together you've got a pretty good pretty good gauge you can overlay just like a weekly rsi weekly rsi above 75 from memory is usually toppy yeah um yeah how how i guess the rsi will measure that momentum but how fast can this can these typically move like is it is it is it typically like a slow grind up and we sort of see like 60 now then we head towards 70 in a few weeks or you know in a week can you go from like 60 to 90 I guess, again, I'm sure the RSI would forecast that anyway.

24:36Yeah, it's a good question. I don't have a great answer. I can't quantify it, but instinctively, I would say it goes pretty fast. Once you start getting into the banana zone, as it's called, it can move pretty fast. I mean, like, where are we relative to the last cycle? We're in Q4. There's been an election. It was 2020, last cycle, Q4, that Bitcoin had broken the high and through Christmas it just ripped. And it probably, I'll get these numbers wrong, but like from memory, like it was like 30 ,000 by Christmas, you know, so it had done 50 % on the all-time high. At that time, have we done 50 %?

25:24No, we've done 25%. So like for like, maybe it's like 110. I don't know, something around then. And then within five months, it basically peaked. After that, it was May. So it can be, yeah, it's usually fast. Well, I'm definitely, it's not something I've looked at before personally. I'm definitely going to start tracking it now and full on panic if I see it go to 80 % or 90%. No, I won't do that. All right, cool. That's a good one to look at. I'm definitely keen to start tracking these numbers a lot more because it's not something that I've typically looked at. I tend to focus more on the macro setup.

26:05And we obviously had inflation data this week as well, which came in line with expectations, but higher than last month at 2.6 % for the US. But general macro indicators are starting to... I mean, I don't want to say they're turning, but it's not quite the kind of like Goldilocks environment that it feels like is it really? Like you know 10 years back at 4.4 % equities have been strong but they kind of seem to have stalled out here a little bit do you think there's any cause for concern there? Is it just a bit of a pause or election now priced in and happened is it sort of like a sell the news type thing or the thing I'm curious about really is rates as well like it's you know I kind of would have expected 10 years to be sub 4 % with what the FOMC has been saying and with inflation trending the way it has.

26:57But I guess maybe the last meeting was a bit less dovish than people were hoping for. Yeah, I mean, I don't like seeing the DXY at 106 unless we're about to pivot and then it's going to be perfect for crypto because crypto has rallied as the dollar rallied and it's back at... is it like a one, one and a half years sort of resistance level? I don't know if I've got the DXY on hand, but yeah, I think I do actually. I don't know if you can show that. Oh yeah. But yeah. So, I mean, these are, this is a level which it's usually it's usually peeled back from. And it's typically not been, you know, around this time, I mean, it's usually risk assets are sort of starting to price it in and sell off a little bit.

27:54That could just be the perfect area to go long crypto because we're going to see a pivot. I don't think the central planners are comfortable with the dollar this strong right now and yields is where they are. But I don't know. It's above my pay grade a little bit. I don't know what the transition looks like between this animosity between the Fed and Trump and the administration. So maybe they'll let shit burn for a couple of months. I really don't know. But to answer the question, really, I flagged it on Twitter because the macro liquidity dashboard that I use does a pretty good job of just pointing out when risks are arising.

28:41And you had Global M2s rolled over. DXY is strong. Global central banks' balance sheets are only moving higher because of the PBOC. So it's just pulling them all up. So hopefully soon the Fed peels back on QT and that will be perceived very well and that should help the situation at the moment. We'll have to wait and see though. Yeah, it's really at this point of inflection, isn't it, really? I hadn't even realized that we were at these levels. like basically what like a two year it's a big it's a big straight move up in what two months I mean you had that big move in October I guess and then just the last two weeks it's just completely spiked hasn't it yeah so the market is begging for liquidity yeah well it's going to be yeah it's going to be interesting to see what happens I think it's funny because people say oh you know elections are times of uncertainty and once we get the result things are certain again, but I'm not really feeling like that certain about stuff on a macro level.

29:51It just feels like we're still at a very inflectious point. I don't think it changes too much though. They're definitely going to add liquidity. I'm surprised that we're seeing the DXY almost 107 now. So I think it brings it forward. if they thought they could just pace it out, I think. So it could get a little bit rocky from here if we see a break higher. But what I'm saying is it really doesn't change my thesis of what's happening on the medium to long term. They'll need to do something. Fair enough. Something I wanted to chat to you about actually is Bitcoin dominance. so this rally whether you like it or not has really been bitcoin led i think bitcoin dominance hit a high of 61.3 or something like that earlier this week um that's the highest level we've seen since december 2020 back when it was around 70 i think right before it dropped and we had that great big alt season um you know a lot of this has been driven by etfs obviously I think all the chatter about there being a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

31:10Legislation is obviously fueling that even further. What's your take on this? Because, you know, ALTS have had a terrible performance this year. I mean, many ALTS are down on the year. ETH BTC is at the lowest point it's been in a couple of years, two or three years or something like that. And we get kind of at this point now where there's a school of thought where we've seen the first part of the rally, which has been Bitcoin-led, and now perhaps see the second part of the rally when alts regain some market share. But is this time different just because of ETF and ETF phenomena and also the potential for the US to go out there and buy a million Bitcoin over the next five years and then every single other sovereign state probably having to phone them in after that as well?

31:59yeah um i think it's all those things um so i had a view that bitcoin would break it would probably run to 100 000 and that would be the that would be the trigger for an alt season um but i also made the point in the research especially in the last couple of reports where i was doing projections because in order to project the total market cap after you've projected Bitcoin, you have to assume what you think Bitcoin dominance will be. Like it's like just backing out Bitcoin first and then saying, okay, if Bitcoin dominance is this, then the rest of the market would be roughly worth X, Y, Z. And I use a top 200 index.