Research: How the Pros Do It - Jared Dillian and Tony Greer

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0:57Hi, everyone. Welcome. Welcome to a new week. We're going to kick off this one with a series on researching like the pros. And to get us started, we have two of the very best, Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, and Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirt Nav. Hey, guys. Good morning, Maggie. How you doing? Good, good. So we are doing this, listen, we're in a period of rapid change, increased volatility. We talk all the time with you guys and all the guests we have on about how it's a really sort of difficult environment, one with a lot of opportunity, but difficult to navigate. We're kind of maybe moving into something different.

1:31So we wanted to take the time this week to talk a little bit about how each of us can use research to be smarter investors. So we thought it would be great to talk to each of you about the sort of process and that framework you use. So why don't we start out with maybe a little bit of your background? And I'm interested to hear from each of you, if you kind of remember when you went from the beginning, how you were operating to kind of establishing your own system. So, Jared, why don't you kick us off? Do you kind of remember that transition where you're like, okay, wait a minute. Like, I'm starting to get a handle on this, and I'm starting to create my own idea about how I operate.

2:11Yeah, I mean, when I first started the newsletter in 2008, I was really looking forward to having time to research, you know, and I said to myself, I'm like, I'm going to subscribe to all these newsletters. I'm going to subscribe to Jim Grant and all these, you know, smart people. And, you know, I'm going to have hours a day to read all this stuff. And, you know, it actually, one of the things, I don't know if you remember this, but back in 2008, this was kind of before Twitter. And this is when financial blogs were a big thing. So I was reading a lot of blogs and I did this for about a year. And I'm like, this, this is a terrible process because what I'm doing is I'm reading other people's opinions about things.

3:00Right. And so when you read opinions, you sort of co-opt them as your own and it's not really your own ideas. So after about a year of doing that, I said, I am never reading opinion ever again. So I unsubscribed from the newsletters and I stopped reading the blogs and I literally just started reading news articles, like just facts. And that was the turning point for me. you know and that's really what i've been doing for the last 15 or 16 years so yeah helping get to get your own original thinking into it um and i think that's i think that's a really interesting point because we talk about sort of in the academy and other places about building your own framework right because only you know what's relevant to you what your risk profile is but there are a lot of opinions and you know we see it all the time every headline is sort of cliff bait about what you should do, what you should buy, what you should treat, but it's not kind of a one-size-fits-all.

4:00So Tony, what about you? Do you remember where you kind of made that transition? Yeah, I would say I had two transitions. I had the one transition where I realized that me looking at the world and putting on positions based on what I thought was going to happen, the realization that that was a losing proposition was one sort of wake-up call I had and got tired of losing money and decided to figure out how to make money. And that was kind of probably five to seven years into my trading career of kind of piddling around with kind of small amounts of money, trying to get acquainted to markets and feeling them with my own flesh and blood and understanding what that emotion was going to be like.

4:43And then the next one was definitely to kind of echo what my man JD was saying. when you start working for yourself you are no longer you know like burdened by the duty to do anything for anyone else you know other than for your own process and so when it became time to start writing the newsletter in 2016 that's kind of when i similar to jared started saying okay i got to decide what i think about markets now so that i have a clear view and i can profess my own ideas like kind of like JD was like I don't want anybody else's ideas crawling around in my head and influencing what I think so when I started the newsletter is when I really beefed up my sort of market watch spreadsheet where you know I monitor the closes of things on a weekly and monthly and quarterly basis and kind of follow where the market's going and use that as a little bit of a map in as much as I can and then refining that skill over the last seven years to to to come to a really comfortable point in understanding the risk that I have on and when I want to be in it and when I want to be out and having really surrendered control of the book to what the market tells me kind of thing.

5:58Yeah. So it's interesting in both of your cases. First of all, I think there's an idea that people have that they got to be perfect out of the gate or somehow like there's people who know and people who don't instead of it just being a process that you create and both of you sort of it sounds like this was a process jared what do you feel like changed when you started kind of creating your own ideas did you become more disciplined was it more organized like what was the what was the change that happened well first of all you know you never should have brought me on this show because like my process is very different from other people's So I don't do any quantitative research at all.

6:41I do qualitative research, right? So if I'm going to research a stock or a country or something like that, I pull up a bunch of news articles and I read news articles and I look for language in the news articles so I can get clues on sentiment, right? And I actually have an assistant, so I have the assistant pull all the autographs for me and print them out and stuff like that. What I've found over the years is that the amount of research that I do into a trade is not necessarily correlated to the success of the trade. I've had some trades, like my whole short candidate thesis from 10 years ago.

7:20like I did more research on Canadian housing than any other trade that I've ever done and it and it was my worst idea you know and I've had some trades where I've where I just like pulled up a chart or something and I'm like hey cool chart and I buy the stock and it's like you know goes up 100 so like there's there there's no correlation at all as to like how much you know research you do and also i've started to come to the opinion that like more information isn't necessarily better and a good idea can usually be summed up in a sentence if you have an idea that has all these moving parts that's very complex and stuff like that it's probably not going to work the best idea is you can sum up in a sentence or an elevator pitch or something like that so i like to keep it really really simple you know that is why we asked you on the show jared because everybody has a different approach and it can't all be the same there are lots of different inputs right and we know that you're you're a sentiment person and you know ral always says one of the best out there um and that's your framework that you operate on and it's incredibly helpful to people who are maybe looking at different things and the other thing i think Tony is that people have different people have different timeframes they have different goals they have different lengths and we talk to you a lot about trading strategies um because of all your time and I see you nodding when you when Jared said sometimes the more complex the idea you can kind of get lost in it I feel like you tell us a lot too you're like listen what's the market selling did you did it help you get some clarity once you kind of locked into building the kind of framework you operate off of yeah well you know at least at least then i knew that there was something more powerful than my brain trying to tell me what was going on right and and that being the market you know so being led to you know the one thing that i can notice is um you know i'm i'm i'm visually oriented so one thing that i notice is when something performs several times in a row like my memory kicks in and say oh this is the sector that's been up three weeks in a row and it kind of you know i'm not going to say that that's the answer to the trade but a little bit it tells you a little bit about where to look and then when i go about the rest of my process which is sort of overlaying where that move is within the technical framework and totally understanding sort of jd's viewpoint about where we are in the sentiment of the framework of the trade you know then the trades start to jump out at you when the stars kind of align you know whoops we have a technical breakout here where everyone's bearish and everyone's short and there's you know there's a lot of room on the upside on the chart.

10:03Sometimes those are the ones that represent themselves, like JD said, where you look at the chart and you're like, oh man, everybody's bearish, they're short, this thing's breaking out, just buy this. I don't have any, I have nothing holding me back from those kinds of trades. So yeah, it's a freeing experience when you get that overlay of things that sort of all line up and then you don't have to do any more research. You put the trade on, you manage the risk. Hey everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

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12:21yeah um i and i i really really remember that day we were talking november right before that monster rally it was exactly that you're like wait a minute i'm seeing this stuff and and not that you were there beforehand because we were all kind of at this point where we were looking at rates and suddenly these things fell into place for you and you were like super super bullish which at the time was, you know, no one was really saying. And so it felt like that, we sort of saw that moment because it was at the end of that day. You're like, wait a minute, what's gone? Today was really important. Exactly, Maggie.

12:55So, you know, on a day that, you know, when you're sitting here going through the grind of the market days that don't speak to you very much, you know, you'll notice that there'll be one or two stocks that, you know, spark up on the upside and have huge moves and a couple that are, you know, fall apart on the downside. on a day when 17 sectors have major magnitude moves in the same direction and they all or most of them break major technical resistance levels on the way i mean the scream is the screens are screaming at you at that point right they're like get this message out like what are you observing there's something going on that is not to be faded so it's when those sort of bells and alarms that the market sends off start going off all at once that you can you can read that statement that the market's making and go with it yeah jared uh both of you talked about sort of there's so much noise out there and and tony was just talking about getting out of your own brain for somebody who watches sentiment how do you grapple with that because you have ideas like i know you were watching argentina really early when people weren't watching it and and you know we're all human beings right we love stories we love narrative how do you kind of back test that when you're thinking about something, you like an idea, but Tony just mentioned kind of getting freed up from getting too locked into your own brain and thinking.

14:18How do you balance those two things? Well, first of all, the Argentina trade wasn't really a sentiment trade. I kind of have this belief that when an economically unfree country becomes an economically free country, you're looking at you know multiple triple digit percentage growth like over time so that wasn't really a sentiment trade um you know in terms of my research for sentiment like just say for example you know i wanted to research corn okay i would go into the twitter search box and type in corn or hashtag corn or something like that and i would look through all the tweets and i look at the comments from people you know uh twitter is an amazingly useful tool so um you know as you know corn broke four dollars today so now we have three dollar corn i actually haven't done this yet but i intended to do it later today i actually wanted to like search for the tweets on corn and see where people's heads are at you know um the the type of the type of comments i'm looking for is uh something is relentless or something is unstoppable or this is going to go on forever or you're an idiot if you're long corn you know like that's that's the type of stuff i look for and that that's what gets me interested so yeah tony just said he can't go down yeah i mean one of jd's best calls ever was when he decided at 135 dollar oil that sentiment was just too bullish and he didn't give a flying rat's ass about how little oil there was in inventory because we had reached peak sentiment and then oil went down 60 in five days or something like that so it's like it's really powerful tool when he's got a handle on it yeah um i i think that uh the too many assholes and uranium was also another uh oh that was those uranium people came at you too jared that was a perfect that perfectly lines up with what we're talking about maggie two weeks ago there was no uranium and you couldn't say anything bearish on twitter without getting shoes thrown at you and you know i i'm on tape on video saying this is exactly when the uranium market breaks because all the bulls are in it they're long they think it can't go down and guess what mr market is about to introduce them to a big sell-off.

16:49And that's exactly what's going on right now. So, you know, luckily some of the pros made a couple of good escapes out of that trade, but it's the way that the sentiment lines up, man. It's really, really powerful. And JD is the best at sniffing it out. You know, it strikes me as I talk to you, we're spoiled. We talk to you all the time. We have a lot of fun on the daily briefings. We joke around when you're on together. We joke around about this, but you're not just shooting from the hip. I think it's kind of important to point that out because you have great turns of phrases and a great sense of humor, both of you.

17:22But there is a process. I think that's kind of what we're trying to shine a light on. There is something that's going on. You're not just bullshitting. You're looking at things. And it's why you're both able to catch things early. And both of you are on the record with us being very contrarian at times and or leaving behind what people think you think. And Tony, we've talked about this with commodities and everybody thought you were not a tech ball, that you were permanently bearish tech and hated everything tech, which was absolutely not true. It was just at the moment. And I think it's important to point that out.

17:59Yeah, you know, yeah, the way to look at it is that we're, you know, we're in everything for the trade, you know. And I mean, I don't really get the sense that JD is a dogmatic type trader either, where he would be kind of one way in something no matter what you throw at him. You know, we're people that realize that markets change and move on sentiment, and that's where the money is made, you know, like at the extremes. And so it's got nothing to do with the fundamentals most of the time when the stock is doing one thing and sentiment and tactical trading and price action are doing another. you know and it takes a long time to be able to separate out the positive sentiment flying around your head and be able to make a sale into that like i finally learned a long time ago that if i'm high-fiving somebody that's in a position with me because we're making so much money i better be making a sale with the other hand because whenever i forget to make a sale and i only high five i always give money back you know so if you're ever going to learn it you have to be really uncomfortable and be like, oh my God, they're ripping each other's arms off for this thing that I'm long sold, right?

19:10You got to be able to feed the ducks when the sentiment lines up and everybody wants it. So that's another way of looking at it. Yeah. Jared, I think this is one of the things where I'm curious to hear from you. I would say one of the things timing, doing exactly what you just said, Tony, we get a lot of questions on that. Jared, what do you hear from your clients? What did they struggle with the most? Well, first of all, I want to say, this is super important. This just came into my head and I just want to get this point across. There's a rule of marketing that you have to hear about a product six times before you buy it, right?

19:48So let's say you hear about this fancy electronic cat litter box and somebody mentions it to you and you're like, oh, that's interesting. And then you forget about it. and then you see a facebook ad you're like oh i think i've heard about that before then you see a commercial and then two more people talk to you and by the sixth time you've heard about it you're like okay i'm going to buy the litter box right the same thing is true of stocks okay or any trade but stocks if somebody gives you a stock tip you're like oh okay i'll look into that and you have to hear about it six times before you finally act on it but by then it is too late it's too late so one of the things i've trained myself to do over the years is if somebody gives me an idea i i look it up immediately i research it immediately okay and then i have a saying and the saying is invest then investigate right because markets move fast and if you have a good idea you want to put it on immediately and then go do the research if the research doesn't confirm your initial idea you can always get out of the trade right but if it does confirm your initial idea then you can add to the trade so that's basically what i try to do like the first time i hear about something i i do a little bit of research and then invest then investigate which Which goes contrary to what people are taught in the CFA program and stuff like that.

21:21Like you're supposed to research the hell out of a stock before you buy it. And the thing about that is, is that people get lazy about research. It's effort, right? So they're like, ah, you know, I'll do the research on this stock next week, the week after whatever. And then they end up not doing it. And then the stock runs away from them and it's too late. So. You just described, I think, everybody's experience right now. because things move with lightning speed. Do you think that it's such an interesting concept? Do you think by putting a little money in something, you're more committed to it as well?

21:59And you'll follow through. Once you buy the stock, now you have risk on, right? So now you will actually do the research. But people get paralysis by analysis, right? They're like, oh, like I gotta do all this research on the stock and yeah they they do it in the wrong order so but you at least have to take a starter position yeah i i just want to uh i just want to also throw in we were talking a lot about you being a sentiment person but you look at charts and prices too i think jared if i'm not oh yeah absolutely yeah so we we talk a lot about sentiment but i i think i i think we we need to sort of fill in that there's there's more to the framework as well and it sounds like you're putting pieces together you're very keen on the sentiment it's the part that interests you and where your gut takes you but you're you're balancing it with more than just one component is that fair to say like what what else are you it what's in the in the pot when you're looking at something basically sentiment and technicals i do look at charts um and the best trades are when the two line up when the sentiment and the technicals line up.

23:07So for example, back around 4 ,800, 4 ,780 in the S &P, I took a shot on the short side, which was purely based on technicals. And it worked for two or three days. And then I got stopped out. And the reason it didn't work was because the sentiment and the technicals did not match up. The sentiment was not extended enough for that to work. So we're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

23:43Tony, what do you what do you feel like your clients struggle? Well, we just talked about the fact that you've got a kick and slack, which I'm psyched we know about now. I'm going to ask you about it all the time. But what do you what do you think you are? Why is this happening? Does anybody else see the balloons going up? Yeah. Well, did I just get a bonus question or something? was amazing must have said this super you know super secret code word that unlocked the balloons maggie what did you say i don't know but i gotta i gotta do it again maybe something else will pop up but um what do you what do you think your clients uh struggle with a lot what do you hear about a lot yeah you know the thing that i try to to instruct the most i think in in you know the slack channel which is kind of an ongoing study on trading and markets and it's fun but i I try to teach guys with less experience that you can be bullish and make sales.

24:30You know, it's like you can be bullish, but when you perceive something to be at the top of the range or someplace where sentiment is freaking out or someplace where it's all stop loss buying, you got to learn to be happy about that, but learn to be able to make a sale so that you're less long at the highs, because that's more important than being most bullish at the highs. right and it's like a thing that you want to say like you know kind of like an oil when oil was on the way down and like people would come up to me and be like oh you're bullish oil you're bullish oil and I'd be like I'm not bullish oil at all you know oil looks like it's on the way down to me I'm not bullish there and you know when oil becomes a good buy I'll talk about you know buying it and that's another thing that that guys struggle with I'll have something that I'm bullish on the view matrix and bullish isn't a position yet bullish is just a sort of view meaning i have it on my radar and i may go long and i'll establish a level where i would bid for that security and i'll have guys come into me and like dms and say like hey do you think we should buy some here or you think we should buy some here and i'd look at the chart and be like why it's not a good buy it's not anywhere and just because i'm bullish something let's buy it when it's a good buy let's buy it when you know as we used to say on the floor you know when a paper broker comes in and smashes it down you know a couple of percent let's buy it there you know and not worry about you know what you know that we need to get it on the pad now let's buy things when they're a good buy and you can be bullish and make good sales like the saying down on the floor was like that's what the badge is for right and you'd show somebody the badge saying like yeah i'm bullish but i shorted 500 lots to the guy that came in and was buying on a stop loss into technical resistance right so that's a trade that works also you know like you're fading sentiment you're fading a guy that's stopping out at resistance and it's like yeah you could be bullish that security but put that trade on because that trade lines up you know and it's just trying to get that thinking that limber thinking to people um who want to have a view and establish it and keep it forever and ride their security into the stratosphere when they can retire and never have to work again and it don't work that way.

26:40Yeah, Jared, I think this is the kind of danger of everyone going for the 10 bagger. Someone sent me something this morning, I think Warren Buffett put it in his annual report about like the whole market seems like a casino all the time now. You know, we know Warren is more of a traditionalist, but he does make a point that everyone seems to be going for like the killer trade that they're going to be able to retire on immediately. Do you find that you come up against that, Jared, especially if you talk in sentiment that's the thing that feeds into that feeling of narrative like i believe that you know tesla is a great example of this i think there are hardcore elon fans that believe he is like the next coming and you know uh can do no wrong and i think that guide their trading and investing but then they struggle when things are you know that that's a that's a super example how are how do you think about that you know what do you tell clients that that are kind of like tony said just just anxious to get to get that winning trade well first of all conviction can be good but conviction can also be bad and conviction in a lot of cases is being impervious to opposing points of view right yeah like so there's there's such a thing as too much conviction and getting back to your earlier point about how people are looking for retirement trades and stuff like that there's a phenomenon today which i didn't really see up until about 2021 but people are basically behaving in such a way that it's infinity or zero right they buy a stock and they're one of two outcomes is going to happen it's going to go to infinity or it's going to go to zero and they're just going to hold on no matter what well nothing ever goes to infinity so inevitably it always goes to zero right so people people will take like i've never i've never seen such a lack of discipline in the markets like people are psychologically prepared to take 80 drawdowns on stuff you know i'm a big fan of taking profits i mean look like people say if you bought apple in 1986 and you held it to today then you would have made a hundred thousand percent or whatever like that's fine but like i'm a big fan of taking profits along the way and the reason people don't is because they have fear of future regret right they're afraid that they're going to regret missing out on more gains just take the gains pay the taxes and go on to another trade like there's always another trade so i think that really explains part of why we wanted to talk about this this week, because there is this, and it could be a lack of discipline, but it's also the pressure that everyone else has found that unicorn.

29:39Everyone got in and NVIDIA has fueled that like nothing else. That's the, you know, it could be Apple, but lately for people, it's been NVIDIA that if you got in early, that that's it. You just needed that one thing causing lack of discipline. And we worry also causing people to put outsized bets on something, maybe without protecting themselves. And Tony, this is something that you talk about all the time. And both you and Jared also are focused on taking money off the table, but protecting yourself in terms of the risk you're taking. And that's part of what you guys focus on as well, correct?

30:12Yeah. When you get a position on, and especially if you get it on well and it starts going your way, you got to figure out when to turn seller, right? Because as Jared just pointed out, and we've gone over things don't go up forever and what happens to people is they get conditioned response if they bought apple a long time ago and they're not really a trader they'll get lucky by holding it for a long time because they get conditioned response they get the condition of looking at it and seeing the price go up and the response of folding their arms and saying beautiful i don't have to do anything and eventually you know that it gets to a point where they should have done something and sort of that's the kind of that that's the way to approach the market where fat pitches come if you're really patient and you want to pull 10 12 trades a year out of the market you can sit back and wait for fat pitches all day long because i'm confident that i'm going to see 10 or 12 really good ones come over the plate over the course of the year you know sometimes you get in trouble when you say oh i got to be in this got to be in that got to be in this and you don't have the conviction in those but they just look okay you know so if kind of sit back and you know god forbid you were ever you know had all of your dry powder on a day like november 14th like we keep talking about maggie when all of those bells went off if you would have put your first if you would have had the conviction that stocks were going up from then like we had and put your first trade on that day you're you know you're that was a good position to be in you know like because you sat back and you waited for the fattest pitch of them all right that's kind of impossible to do by november but i'm saying if you kind of structure your strategy and the way you look at the markets like that you can let a lot of curveballs go by and say nah you know that's not the one that i want to lean into and then when you find the one it's usually the one that's kind of screaming in your ear where at our point in in you know probably experience-wise jd and i like are automatically putting it on like okay i'm not sure if this works or not but let's start moving some money into this yeah you know and that's sort of how the trade evolves I think that's what you guys are teaching people with the newsletter.

32:15So, because I don't think the rest of us, it's such muscle memory for you now that you see those pitches, the rest of us are like, wait, is that the pitch? I'm trying to find the pitch. So, I mean, that, but I know what you're talking about. Um, Jared, what do you, what's a, what do you think of a good hack is that you have, or something that makes the research process easier for you or, or most beneficial for you? I think we just, by the way, we already talked about a couple because you both mentioned, um, you know, like some serious pro tips and invest and then investigate with one of them. Tony, you talked about, um, high five on one hand and taking money off the table with the other one, which are both amazing.

32:56I think people should just like print those out and put them on your bulletin board in front of your monitor or tape them on your monitor, post it on your monitor. But any sort of final thoughts, about advice you'd give people as we're all trying to introduce a little bit of a discipline. And we keep calling it a framework, right? You have to be loose about it, but you have to have some operating procedure so that you're not just shooting from the hip. Sometimes we get questions from people and it just feels like people are moving with the chat on Twitter or We're like bouncing around and we have a lot of conflicting opinions right now.

33:28One person says one thing and they're very compelling one day. One person says something and they're very compelling the next day. And it's like, how do you separate that noise out from the real path we should be on? So what are your thoughts about that, both of you, as we close up here? Jared, start with you. Well, I think that, you know, as if you're an individual trader and you're researching a stock you just have to know that yes you're doing research on the stock but somebody out there is doing a lot more research than you okay like one of the things that blew my mind was when i heard that hedge funds were taking satellite photos of parking lots outside retailers to see like how many people were going in the stores right so no matter how much information you think you have somebody has more information than you and you as an individual trader are going to be at an information disadvantage so the question is if you're going to be at an information disadvantage how are you going where are you going to get your advantage right what is your edge okay is it sentiment is it charts is it something else is it you you have to have some kind of process because research alone isn't going to get you there, at least based on publicly available information.

34:52That's an amazing point. And you're right. And there's so many of those professionals. That's what we talk about. How do you at least reclaim a little? They've got such an edge and an advantage. How can you skill yourself? I think that's what Raoul's always talking about, right? How can you use the tools available to increase your knowledge so that you're operating from a place of making informed decisions and not just sort of you know getting thrown around by the last bit of information that's coming and that's hard tony because that's usually when most people get stuff is when it's sort of you know made the rounds what what about you what are your thoughts you know I think I've always been of the survivor mentality and like you know I'm I'm um oh whatever my point that I wanted to make regarding this was I the best way to do that is to remove as much emotion from the trade as you can right and to me that just entails like you know if you have the right risk reward on which entails being patient and you know getting into the positions that you want to buy lower and being quick with the ones that are breaking out and like being really on top of your game the bottom line is you're looking at that chart and you're saying okay i can risk it getting back below these moving averages on the downside and that's my stop loss and i have a target of let's see where i think it can go i think it can go here so if you kind of get into a trade and you put those two points on the board and you put alarms in your market watch systems that wake you up at those levels you have to be non-emotional enough to be like oh okay this is a sale because it's breaking down below my price and i understand there may be other things going on in the world that may make me want to not sell it or whatever but at some point i have to live and die by that discipline or else you start making an excuse for every trade and then the framework is out the window right so you got at some point abide by the framework and what the framework does for me is it just lets me say okay i lost a couple percent on this trade small losses are beautiful for me you know what i hate big ones so i've learned to accept small losses and not accept big ones and so it's kind of like you know you're kind of spinning your p and l around to the fact that with a trailing stop mechanism i can let my profits run and if i'm stingy about the positions i put on and don't like to give up more than a couple of percent and demand that i don't lose 20 on anything god forbid you force yourself into a like non-emotional, got to trade this because it's breaking out, got to sell that because it's breaking down, emotionless trading framework.

37:30And that's what works the best for me. That's how I feel when I turn the screens on. I feel very relaxed. The stuff that I have on, I'll part with it in a minute. Stuff that I don't have on, I'll put it on my pad before you can blink. And at that point, it's just managing the risk. And so to me, that's kind of one of the more important things is to say, okay, can I establish a good three to one ratio here with a one loss and a three parts profit or a one to four? I'm going to put that on and let that work all day by itself. If I have to wait a little bit to be patient, I can do that. If it's one of the things that I'm breaking out on and I've got to be there immediately, I can switch that year too.

38:07But the bottom line is as long as I have a tight risk on the downside and much bigger reward on the upside, totally manageable, no sweating, no hemming and hawing, and I can just trade the thing. Yeah, it's guardrails, right? Guardrails are helpful. They keep us intact. They keep us up with these amazing stuff. Um, and this is, this is all wisdom. We always appreciate you sharing it. It's wisdom. That's hard, hard one. I mean, earned, um, both Tony and Jared have done my life before trades with me, including two of their worst trades. So you can get a little background on how they came to all this knowledge and to this process that they use, because I think, you know, making those mistakes and failing, is often the best teacher.

38:48And that is part of why they are as good as they are now. And we're so grateful to both of you for being part of our community, for being in the RV marketplace and being able to share your research with our community so that they can kind of get on the path to profitability. I feel like it's more needed now because that zero interest rate, just set and forget kind of environment we were in, it fueled a lot of the passive behavior that we're all accustomed to, but things are changing. People are living longer. Things are more volatile. It's harder. So we all need to kind of up our skills. So we really appreciate both of you being part of that journey.

39:27Absolutely. Happy to share everything, Maggie. Yeah, thank you. Thank you so much. And it's damn fun to read our stuff too, I have to say, which makes it easier. It's not drudgery. It's super fun. We appreciate your humor too. Great to start the weekend day with you guys. Thanks so much. We'll see you soon. Take care, everybody. Thank you. We hope you enjoyed this episode. At Real Vision, we arm you with the expert knowledge, time-efficient tools, and a powerful network to help you succeed on your financial journey. Get a taste of financial freedom with our free offer at realvision.com forward slash free.

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