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Podcast Summary: SEC Launches "Project Crypto" — Is This Everything We've Wanted?
Podcast Details
- Title: Real Vision: Finance & Investing
- Episode: SEC Launches "Project Crypto" — Is This Everything We've Wanted?
- Guests: Mando, Gmoney, Spencer
- Date: [Episode Date Not Provided]
- Podcast Objective: To provide cutting-edge insights and expert analysis in finance and investing.
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Episode Overview
In this episode, the hosts and guests discuss several critical topics surrounding the current state of cryptocurrencies, particularly in light of the SEC's announcement of "Project Crypto." The discussion encompasses macroeconomic factors, recent economic data, the resurgence of Ethereum (ETH) and NFTs, and the evolving regulatory landscape impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Key Topics Discussed
- Market Analysis
- The hosts examine the reactions to recent Federal Reserve statements and U.S. economic data.
- Discussions on market conditions suggest a mixed sentiment among investors, characterized by:
- A dovish interpretation of the Fed's stance.
- A volatile crypto market with fluctuating sentiments leading to sell-offs.
- The importance of job data and its impact on market expectations regarding interest rates.
- Regulatory Developments
- The SEC's Project Crypto aims to widen the acceptance and standardization of tokenization in various asset classes.
- The SEC chair's statement minimizes the designation of most crypto tokens as securities, indicating a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
- Concerns about the permanence of these regulatory advancements amidst shifts in political power, particularly if the Democrats regain control.
- Cultural Shifts in Crypto
- Gmoney and Spencer highlight the cultural aspects of crypto and NFTs, emphasizing that:
- The integration of traditional finance with cryptocurrency is accelerating.
- The growing interest in NFTs, particularly CryptoPunks, as a form of digital status symbol and potential hedge against inflation.
- Institutional Interest
- The conversation touches upon the influx of institutional capital into cryptocurrencies and NFTs.
- Growth in treasury companies purchasing ETH and NFTs is seen as a bullish signal.
- Discussion of how institutional money could create value in digital assets, moving away from traditional equity markets.
- Ethereum and Altcoin Dynamics
- Ethereum's performance has been particularly strong, with implications for broader market trends.
- The emergence of altcoins and potential for an "altcoin season" prompted discussion of Solana as a significant player next to ETH.
- The importance of diversification in crypto portfolios is emphasized, with suggestions to hold a mix of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select NFTs.
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Key Takeaways
- Bullish Sentiment on Regulation: The SEC's positive stance on crypto regulation is seen as a major development that could facilitate greater adoption and legitimacy for cryptocurrencies.
- Market Volatility: Acknowledge the ongoing volatility in markets and investor behavior driven by external economic indicators.
- Cultural Significance of NFTs: NFTs, particularly renowned assets like CryptoPunks, are being viewed as cultural artifacts and investment vehicles, highlighting the intersection of culture and finance.
- Institutional Entry: New waves of institutional investment are reshaping the crypto landscape, indicating a shift toward mainstream acceptance.
- Future of Altcoins: The discussion indicates that while ETH is currently strong, there is potential for other coins, particularly Solana, to rise in prominence alongside ETH.
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Closing Thoughts The episode wraps up on a note of cautious optimism, recognizing both the potential for growth in the crypto space and the inherent risks posed by market volatility and regulatory change. The hosts encourage listeners to stay informed and consider the broader implications of recent developments in the financial landscape.
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For more insights and to join the community, subscribe to the Real Vision Podcast and connect with them on social media!
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:31TOGs, well, 2021 and before, let's say, to come in and talk about that alongside macro, crypto, maybe a bit of AI too. It's obviously a bit of a volatile day in crypto markets, so a good time to get into a bunch of different topics. Just as a quick introduction, we have G-Money. I'm sure a bunch of people know who he is. OG trader in the space, was famous. I first came across him for the Punks thesis, which kind of set off part of the 2021 bull cycle, has been involved in a number of different NFT projects and broader crypto projects since then. Thank you for coming on. And also Spencer, who is, well, a bunch of different things, has his own VC fund, also has been part of OCAT Games, the founder or CEO of Orange Cat Games, which has recently bought Moonbirds.
2:24so we're going to get a bit of perspective on on various different sides of entities thank you both for coming on uh great to speak to you g money what are you what are you making of the market right now um well first off thanks for for having me on and for reaching out a couple weeks ago it was uh truly an honor i i really love the work that that you and osf have been doing uh obviously really smart guys ex-wall street guys so always uh always listen to what you guys say so So appreciate coming on. In terms of the market, I think it's been really interesting, I think, in probably the last, whatever, 30, 48 hours or so.
3:01You know, I think I initially took, let's say, the Fed statement as dovish because of the dissenters. And it was kind of interesting to see the market sell off. And then obviously we got the jobs data a couple hours ago. So and again, I think that the market hasn't been reacting as positively as I would have thought off this number. So it's just been interesting, kind of like a wait and see approach. I think right now maybe it'll take some time to digest it, maybe over the weekend or something. But yeah, I think we're in an interesting macro spot in terms of like I think we have a lot of positive tailwinds to be happy about.
3:39But then I think you see on the timeline a lot with like this small pullback in the majors and people kind of, you know, calling for the end of the cycle. So I guess that just tells you a little more about how people are positioned, maybe more so than anything else. That's something that I think we're all kind of from that sort of training background. Like very quickly, did the timeline immediately go to this is the top or this could potentially be the top. Watch out below. spencer what have you been making of this like do you think this is just just uh everyone just getting caught up in what just feels like a bit of a natural pullback like broader macros everything's been hitting all-time high yeah just the fact you get an nft rally points the idea of a kind of a bit of the market where stuff is being a bit frothish i mean look like we're certainly not at the bottom right like no no one no one's gonna be here and like, oh, this is the beginning of any, like, like, like the question is kind of where are we?
4:40Right. And I think, you know, the reality is no one knows for sure. But in my mind, like, things are just so hot. I think you have to look both in crypto and outside of crypto. Like, it's not like in crypto, it's easy to be like, oh my God, there's so many good headlines about crypto. Like crypto is hitting, you know, all time highs. Like Bitcoin is, is in a really great range, like all this kind of stuff. Right. But you look outside of crypto and everything is doing that, right? I think a big thing was we said, okay, the Circle IPO performed incredibly well, right? It's this crazy, it's the best IPO in forever, right?
5:09Well, just yesterday, we had the Figma IPO, and the Figma IPO is also one of the best IPOs ever, right? I think this really shows you how much of what's going on is crypto is having a moment versus just the market is really hot, right? And there's a difference between the market is hot and the market is frothy. The pullback that we've had so far off these jobs data to me is not a signal of like everything is cooling forever, right? Like, yeah, the jobs day is different than people expect, you know, the expectations versus whatever. Like there's a big, it's a big difference, but like I don't think this is a structural shift, right?
5:41Like really what the market is singling its hand at is everyone feels like we're really hot and we're going to pull back in a substantial way at some point. I think there's sort of like no question about that, right? Like, you know, we're however much amount of time into the Trump presidency, you know, historically, like we're not going to run forever during a single presidency. I don't think that that's usually been the case. And we've run a lot so far since he took office. And so the real question is, but I think there's also a lot of shell shock. In December, things were incredible. And then if you held through January, February, March, April, Liberation Day was awful.
6:23And I think people have a lot of shell shock and PTSD from that. And so when things are now feeling like they're back, like you know ETH is close to four grand right like it feels like it's back like the amount of mental like instability the people that you know held ETH at 4 ,000 in December had when it hit 1 ,500 in between which was nuts right like like I think that you know in my mind there's there's a little bit of overcompensating people are doing like oh my god it's over on like a five percent move because they didn't see the signals in December when it was kind of over and like if I remember anything from the prior bull market, like those people get getting shaken out, like once they're like, you need to shake those people out.
7:05Once they get shaken out, that's when the real like crazy, not so impractical, like frothy, frothy run happens. Right. And so I think I would be very concerned to not be positioned for the nutso bull market here. But I would also be very concerned to be like leverage trading this market because it's very erratic. yeah i think going back to what you said a little bit g money it felt like 24 hours ago everyone was scared with i mean i i i've generally thought people viewed it more as a hawkish fed although it was a split split fed you kind of saw the odds of of a rate cut in september go down to 40 let's say and everyone was like oh no rate cuts you know this is gonna be bad for crypto and crypto side to sell off then and then today we've had a slightly weaker jobs figure and suddenly the chances of a rate cut have gone back up to like 70%.
7:57So it just feels as though people are just getting themselves caught up with whatever narrative they can to just like sell, sell. And I think that's more just a case of people got kind of ahead of each other rather than a coherent reason why we're suddenly going to go lower. I think what you pointed to there, Spencer, is a good point, though. This has been, just to take a zoom out here a little bit, we've had a move in meme stocks over the last two, three weeks. We've had IPOs pricing and going 2 to 3x. These are IPOs, which, you know, it was a year ago. It was very, very difficult to even imagine some of these IPOs kind of coming to market.
8:32Like there was a big, big worry about some of these big companies that have failed to IPO, that they were going to get difficulty to come out of this sort of pre-IPO market. And then you've had altcoins start to move. We had a little bit of an altcoin season. like Bitcoin dominance went from 65 or 66 to 61. And then NFTs started moving. It just felt like this feels almost natural. Do you think, because we'll get into the crypto-specific headlines this week, because personally, you kind of look at them and go like, wow, it's been a good week again for crypto. But is there anything, putting your macro hat on there, again, G-Money, that you think could derail us?
9:15Do you think if there is no rate cut in September or if I try and look through what could happen over the next three to six months that could really damage? And I don't know if there is anything, but is there anything that you're like really worried about? I mean, I guess like the things that that come top of mind to me is obviously one if war breaks out. Right. That I think throws everything out the window, at least short term. um maybe have tariff headlines uh which it seems like they punted a little bit on that uh earlier this week or last week um i think that those are top of mind but then i i was kind of thinking about this because i haven't really heard a lot of people talking about it but we have jackson hole at the end of the month which is usually a market moving event right uh in terms of getting an idea of how powell's thinking uh and what he might be thinking uh in an intermeeting um uh from an intermediate positioning point of view.
10:10So I feel like that that might come front and center over the next couple of weeks and we might get something out of that. But if the data starts coming in as weak as it came in this morning, then I think you're going to see more and more people clamoring for some sort of cut and some sort of easing. On top of that, you have Trump also like pushing for that too, right? And so, but like, I do want to highlight to something that you guys brought up of like, obviously Figma did awesome yesterday, but I'm also take that with, you know, a little bit of a grain of salt in the sense of like, are things heating up too much?
10:44Because it's in, you know, it's in all the investment banks best interest for it to do really well. Right. So I'm sure it was really, really well positioned and I'm sure they really took advantage of the fact of like the market positioning and making sure that it was successful, because obviously that opens up the gates for more underwriting, more IPOs, and thus more fees for all these bankers. So, you know, like it was like win-win for them, like the more successful this is, because I already heard from a couple of friends being like, you know, this is great, because I have a lot of friends that trade syndicate and they were telling me that this is great.
11:18But what was even better is the fact that, you know, it's going to open up the gates for more IPOs in crypto and outside of crypto, which is great for, you know, all startups. Yeah. And maybe, oh, Mando, can I jump in here? There you go. Yeah. Like, like, I think that like, one thing that Giovanni maybe, you know, touched on, but I want to double down on too, is like, there's also this like erratic risk, right? Which is like, like, a thing that we haven't had historically in the same way where like, in past administrations, you know, stability has been a very big, like goal overall, right? You don't want these big jerks.
11:53We had not a few months ago, Liberation Day, where Trump got up, held up a sign, and the market nuked multiple percentage points. There is always in this market this outside risk that something erratic happens. G-Money, you mentioned war. I think there's some other risks. I think people don't really believe the tariffs anymore. But it's not insane to think that some sort of erratic thing could happen. I think how being forced out would be up there, right? Oh, absolutely. He made some comments today that the Fed board should just take over. And I think the market wouldn't like that. Yeah. And the other thing too, in that risk factor though, is like, as G-Money is saying, Figma is not a stinker.
12:43That's a very real company. It's a ubiquitous company in its industry. That's a great company to take public, right? I think if you want to think about how the heavy hitters or investment bank macro guys are really, if you want to see what they think of the phrasing the market is, is like that's them taking a really great company public, as Gmoney said, repair for other IPOs, right? It's when they start taking the kind of questionable companies public, that's when you should feel like they think the market is topped because they're doing the trade-off of the underperformance of this company that I'm going to take public that sucks is like not, it is like, will make it harder for me to IPO other companies, but that doesn't matter because the market won't allow me to anyway.
13:23So long as they're IPing like true blue chip company, IPOing true blue chip companies, it means they think we're using our bullets correctly, right? And they're IPOing them at prices where they're going to go up after the IPO. Like, you know, like Circle is a... We work. Yeah. Yeah, when one of those comes along, I agree with you. I think this was a natural one to come. Maybe Stripe we see. That's always the big one that gets spoken about. It's still pre-IPO. Is Stripe the pump fund of private markets? How much money needs to go into the Stripe IPO to take it public? Does such money exist? But I know that there's a lot of capital tied up there, and I think everybody's really waiting for that, for a liquidity event.
14:08I think there are a lot of funds that are in there. Yeah. Yeah. So let's get into what's in crypto this week a little bit, because bringing it back to that, it was a, I mean, I felt like it was a strong week. There were some definitely some stronger headlines coming out. And I felt the strongest headline actually came out yesterday, which is from the SEC, which is this Project Crypto, they've announced it, which just seems something completely wild to come out of the SEC compared to maybe the headlines that we saw 12 months ago. So seemingly pushing for a tokenization of a broad range of assets as like standard, like that there would be a natural process to tokenize stocks, bonds, potentially things like REITs, and maybe even a broader set of assets here.
14:52The SEC chair come out and say, basically, we don't think most things are securities, which are just crypto tokens. It really did feel like, wow. And this was on the back of another White House report, which came out on middle of the week, which basically also pointed to it was maybe a bit of antifimax, but again, points to the idea that crypto was going to be a big thing in terms of policy for the current administration. We've also seen pretty decent inflows into things like the ETF. It's felt like a pretty good environment here. And we've also had, you know, treasury companies continuing to run.
15:31it has gone down let's say the list of quality i would say when we're starting to see various different altcoin treasury strategies uh spin up but it definitely didn't feel like the sort of week where crypto should underperform let me put it that way what did what did you make of this project project crypto g money did you did you kind of is this everything that we have been hoping for and more i don't it just kind of felt like wow uh although it's a multi-month rollout, potentially even multi-year rollout, it did really feel like they're giving us everything we ever asked for. Yeah. So I think obviously incredibly positive and just comparing from where we were as an industry 12 months ago and even like 24 months ago with all the bank closures and whatnot to where we are today it's like night and day, right?
16:19It's a 180. The question that I think I was asking myself and I was asking a few friends last night was it I'm a little nervous unless we get maybe like true legislation that gets enacted into law that, you know, if let's say Trump loses the midterms or, you know, Dems take over after this after this administration, if they're just so anti Trump and anti the Republican platform that they just roll everything out just to do it. Right. Because I think we've seen that in the past, like in the past decade where people were just like, I don't care like what the position is, as long as it's anti-Trump, I'm pro that.
16:58Right. And so that kind of like scares me a little bit of like, yeah, this is great short term. I think we got everything that we asked for in terms of crypto becoming like a true asset class and starting to become a little more standardized and people starting to take it a little more seriously. But I guess a little longer term, my first question was like, well, you know, what happens if, you know, the Dems win the midterms or if the Dems win office, does this all get like reverted and we're back in like the dark ages again? And I'd like to see probably personally, and I don't understand maybe totally exactly how Washington works in this sense, but I would love to see some sort of maybe institutionalization of these frameworks so that we don't have to worry about, oh, well, if this other party or even select members, because I'm not going to say that the Dems across the board are anti-crypto.
17:49There are specific members within Congress and the Senate that are. But if they gain back control of that power, like the real question is like, are they gonna roll everything back? And then you have to worry about that liability down the road. But I think overall, personally, obviously, but for me, my first question was, well, how permanent is this? Because we know if history is any indication of what is to come, If Trump is pro something, then there is some group of people that are, you know, immediately anti that without even necessarily thinking about the long term consequences of it just because they're anti Trump.
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19:31Yeah, I think obviously, I mean, and just to give some context to the audience here, like in the last week, there's a Trump stablecoin coming out. the Trump family is being aligned with Bitcoin miners in the space to create vehicles. You have this world of the financial, which is doing a ton of different things in crypto. It does feel as though that is the main risk. I agree. It really depends how much you can repeal if something like this happens and also the chances of the Dems getting in. But I would like to hope that the SEC is meant to be independent. The SEC is meant to be independent. We've seen in the past it hasn't been.
20:07But I would like to hope that if Wall Street, if some of these Wall Street banks come in and start really building out infrastructure here to onboard crypto, that there's enough money now being invested into this from them, that it would be very, very difficult to sway. What did you make of it all, Spencer? Is this a strange week for us to be selling off? Is there any particular asset you're looking at as well? A lot of people pointed obviously to the L1s. again, ETH looked like it could be a winner around a lot of this. So, I mean, I think like the way that you see that I look at this, I share some skepticism that Gmoney has in the short run, but I think it's also like you have to at some points dig down in your fundamental beliefs.
20:50Like I think my fundamental belief is that crypto is ultimately an apolitical issue that is inevitable, right? And I think that that may or may not play out. I think, you know, we had never felt so over as after the FTX collapse and to think that, you know, under any administration now, we have everything that we're getting to have happen now would have been unbelievable. I mean, it was unbelievable then, right? If someone had told you, hey, like, you know, the president's going to launch a stable coin and a meme coin, and we're going to have, you know, American leadership in the digital financial revolution is like on the SEC website like a few years ago.
21:23And like, they just none of it, you would have been laughed out of a room like easily. Right. And so I think like to me, crypto is inevitable. Right. And that's the beauty of it is that it doesn't matter long run who wins elections in the short run. I think midterms are pretty scary. I don't think that I'm super bullish on Republicans retaining the control they have right now. But again, I believe in the inevitability of crypto. And certainly there's been progress made towards the realization of the inevitability of crypto in the U.S. this week. I think there's no doubt in that. That being said, I think one of the big challenges is like crypto has become a kind of cash cow in Washington.
21:59you know there's real lobbying money getting put behind it etc and unfortunately like that kind of has the opposite effect you might think which is that there's now this huge incentive for the politicians to kind of edge this along and really have more and more sort of like statements of things they're hoping to do versus things actually done right because if they passed all the legislation that they want to pass tomorrow then suddenly all that lobbying money stops flowing in And so there's this very perverse incentive to continue to ship something, but not the ultimate thing that everybody wants.
22:32And that is a very dangerous game. I think I, too, worry about the overcorrection after this. If the next administration comes in and undoes everything, nothing that's been done so far feels impossible to undo. That being said, I think that we've become very jaded to what is actually incredible progress. As you said, Mando, one of the biggest things here is the government tends to not do things that are bad for business. And the more that the government and the people align with this being part of the fundamental underpinning of business in America, which is definitely a shift that's happening.
23:08We see banks taking it on. And we see, you know, retail investors in holding this in their Roth IRA now that the ETFs are public. Like, this is very much more ingrained into our society. And like, there is some amount of like, what percent of Americans hold crypto in their retirement accounts going up where it is an issue that would be silly. Like, you don't like no one is going to become popular by nuking the American people's retirement accounts. Right. Right. And so like that is like regardless of your political stance, there is some amount of it is bad for business that won't happen. Right.
23:41And I think if you believe in free markets and you believe in capitalism, like you have to believe that like there is some amount of bad for business that just isn't going to happen. And I think that's really the threshold here. And that's what excites me about these inflows. Right. The institutional bid, whatever, it's like literally the random people. I mean, I was at San Diego Comic-Con last week and the number of people that came up to me and were like, here is the$50 of Pengu I hold in my Robinhood account. Like that was to me more exciting crypto adoption than anything else because that hadn't happened in prior years.
24:14Like we didn't see that kind of adoption through NFTs or anything. But like the ease through Robinhood and other places like of just owning crypto right now is so substantial that more people own it. And it becomes more of an issue and it becomes more of a thing that like, what is the tactical and practical purpose? We see, I think, I always thought, and Amanda, I think you and I even talked about this on a podcast once, that Elizabeth Warren's war on crypto, it was a very silly political move. It's not going to win you more voters. All those people are already voting for you. And it might lose you some of your base.
24:47And so as the old guard rotates out of American politics, again, people will do things that are not bad for business. People will do things that are EV positive for their chance of getting elected. And the more people that own crypto, the more that math just works out in the favor of you, at the very least, can't be anti-crypto, but probably must be pro-crypto. And I think this is pushing towards that. Yeah. Look, I think we have to put into context how good for business this is. Tether also reported earnings this week, and they reported$5 billion of net profit. Also, the US government essentially just gave banks the biggest layup ever with stablecoins here, where they've literally made it illegal for them to pass on the yield on any sort of stablecoin.
25:33So they've just given them a vehicle to print money. That's bad for all of us, but it's the biggest good-for-business thing for TradFi to get into stablecoins right now. You know, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, they now can basically print money and not have to pay anyone. It's it's it's or just convert their dollars to stable coins and not have to pay anyone. It's like an incredible product. Suddenly, that's why everyone is trying to get into stable coins. It's it's massively been skewed in the favor of businesses here. So I do think it's going to be tough for them once they've now let that out and you've got all these people now pushing into stable coins.
26:09I think it's going to be difficult to turn it around. And I think a lot of people right now are looking at ways to, how do I benefit from that? How do I benefit from stablecoins? We're talking about maybe even trillions, tens of trillions suddenly coming on chain just in the form of just dollars. USDC to$5. USDC to$5. Putting it in perspective, the 16th biggest holder of US treasuries right now in totem is stablecoins. So not only they're good for the US government too. there's no buyers of u.s debt apart from stable coins so it's it's a great it's a great business um the next thing i wanted to get on really was eith here because that's one of the things that people have played played at a little bit and g money you were you were there this week for each 10-year anniversary at the nasdaq all the titans of eith were there and then there were you and um and it looked like it was a lot of fun what what was what was the feeling like um at the nasdaq as you kind of rang the bell?
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27:10Because this has been a very good period here for ETH. A lot of the ETH treasury companies coming in, it feels like change of leadership at the foundation. It just feels like there's a lot of good momentum around it. Yeah, listen, I think, you know, for better or worse, I've been an ETH bull for a really long time, even as things looked really bad for us, as little as like five weeks ago. But I'll say this, it's like, I think personally, and I think we've kind of seen this in crypto, So I think as soon as ETH started to outperform and started to catch a bid, then you start seeing, you know, altcoin season or the beginnings of that begin to start.
27:46And so I do think that people probably are fundamentally underweight on how important ETH is to the broader ecosystem of, you know, how much actual innovation came out of the ETH ecosystem last cycle and how much stuff, you know, and really cool experiments actually happen on there. And that once you start getting a bid, what that leads to for the broader ecosystem. So I'd say over the last couple of months, I've had the opportunity to listen to Joe to Joe Lubin talk in some fireside chats and kind of give his opinion on, you know, where he thinks the broader ecosystem goes from here and how important it is overall to, you know, creating trusted systems worldwide that the incredibly neutral systems that people can build on.
28:30And I do think that between, you know, guys like Joe Lubin, Andrew Keyes, Tom Lee, they've been able to kind of sit there and obviously buy, come in and buy a lot of ETH and create that bid. But then also there, those are guys that like, I pretty much, I trust in their decision making more so than maybe like other vehicles that are coming to market. And I'll give Tom Lee credit where credit's due is, I think it was like three weeks ago or four weeks ago when he came up with his thesis on, if you're bullish on stable coins, just get long ETH. And that was probably one of the best two or three minutes I've seen in terms of distilling a thesis so clearly and so eloquently that people understood it.
29:20And obviously putting his money where his mouth is, along with those other guys. And it just makes me so bullish on the ecosystem, knowing that, you know, I think because there was regulatory unclarity up until recently, I think a lot of this, you know, was stuff that couldn't necessarily be talked about because you had the SEC taking action, you know, is it the security? Is it not? All these enforcement actions happening that now seems to be in the rear view mirror and really allows these leaders like Joe and Andrew and Tom to really, you know, not only just talk about it in a more public manner, but then become distilling that gospel out to the masses.
30:02So overall, like, I came out very bullish. I've been, you know, anytime I listen to Joe talk, I get more bullish coming out of it, because it's like, oh, wow, there is a vision here. And there is, you know, this grandiose infrastructure that's that's being built. And it makes me just bullish, bullish on the ecosystem, which in turn makes me even more bullish on crypto in general. Yeah. Yeah. I've called it the best marketing makeover of this cycle to kind of, you know, Vitalik, although is a complete genius, I think is, is less commercial was focused potentially on different use cases for the blockchain.
30:41And now you've got these, these more wall street facing entities and people leading kind of the marketing charge this is a great website by the way strategic uh eth reserve dot xyz it's a new website which is kind of popped up in the last month or so shows various different things but this just shows you where all these um eth treasuries are coming in here we have bitmine which is the tom lee vehicle we have sharplink which is the one run by joe lubin there's this new one called the ether machine which i hadn't even heard of two weeks ago and is now the third biggest holder of ETH all three of these are higher than the ETH foundation now in terms of that ownership so uh the ether machine that is Andrew Keyes's vehicle who's also um very early on at ConsenSys I personally love I tweeted about this I think a week or two ago I love the name like I it gives me um I don't know if you guys ever saw Arnold Schwarzenegger uh when when he was being interviewed when he was really young about like working out and he's like I love the pump and it's like i'm coming and like that to me as i was like machine that's like that's where i want to put my money machine yeah apparently i've just the producer has told me that the the the co-founder andrew keys is coming on real vision next week so um you can go check it out next week uh andrew keys is going to be on real vision maybe go check that i'm sure it's to premium subscribers but yeah this this just puts into perspective how how quick this has been none of these companies were doing this what two months ago this is all just happened out of nowhere um What do you think of all this, Spencer?
32:14I think that what you've got to understand is institutional buyability. I think it's very clear that Bitcoin is buyable. You don't need to think too hard to make a thesis on buying Bitcoin. I think there's not a lot of assets that really are ready for prime time in this way in this industry. ETH is the obvious next one after Bitcoin. There's a real ecosystem. As we've said, it really benefits from this massive stablecoin adoption. there's all these silly numbers you can draw about 10 years out. How many stable coins do you think? Like what percent of the U.S. economy is in stable coins, right?
32:47If you're predicting any reasonable number, like there's just a lot going on, right? And ETH is clearly, as you said, a beneficiary of that narrative. It really felt dead from a crypto native context, but from an institutional viability, like it is number two to Bitcoin, and I don't think it's particularly close, right? I think the natural question is, all right, where are we in this ETH trade? And like, is there a number three, right? And in my mind, like Solana is number three in terms of institutional buyability. And it's not particularly close to who's number four, right? We've only seen the only ones we've seen in treasury companies.
33:21We've seen people like start to do some stuff with Solana. We've seen some people do some stuff with hype. In my mind, hype is orders of magnitude lower a peg in terms of institutional buyability than Solana is for a whole number of reasons. But largely because it's, you know, a protocol. It's relatively new. it has a lot of execution risk whereas an ecosystem and infra like it's just it's a lot less similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum than Solana is I don't think SWE is that close I think AVAX We had SWE and BNB this week What? We had SWE and BNB this week I think SWE and Binance Coin but I agree with you wholeheartedly I think it's Solana would be the next one Right and so I think the question in my mind is and you know I'm someone who like I almost gave up on Ethereum at one point right like it looks really really bad during this pullback from Liberation Day.
34:09And it feels really back. It feels like, oh my God, they're actually going to send it to 10K. It feels like that right now. Will that actually happen? I don't know. But that's definitely the feeling. And I think Solana looks more defensive than it's looked in a while. But I also think it has a more actively managed foundation. So maybe that's a good position for them to play from. And so what I'm looking at right now is clearly there's real meaningful ETH adoption happening. Some of these treasury codes are a little scary overall. just because of how they're kind of coming out of the woodworks and doing this.
34:40But this is really, truly a thing. I think this is a lot of actually what we saw in terms of like the CryptoPunk wave right now is people saying, well, these ETH treasury codes might go out and buy CryptoPunks. And like that's part of that ETH adoption narrative. And so maybe CryptoPunks is an institutionally viable asset, right? But I think like if you think about who can buy at real size, a lot of NFTs are hard to buy at that size because the market cap just isn't high enough, right? Whereas what are the assets in crypto with high enough market caps that have been allowing for long enough? It's like, clearly Bitcoin is number one by a lot.
35:14Clearly ETH is number two by a lot. And clearly Solana is number three by a lot. And then we have these sort of peripheral things that are looking to claw their way into this narrative. But that's at least how I'm thinking about it. And I think everything that we're seeing happen to ETH, I believe strongly happens to Solana over some reasonable time period. assuming that not everything goes to shit for some reason. I agree with you. And I think I'm also very, very bullish on Solana's use case. Obviously, it feels like it's a chain really for, which is dominated payments and uses for various different bits of crypto.
35:50But it just feels like each time you've got to respect it. Like it's when this happened to Bitcoin, Bitcoin dominance just went to the moon. And you've just got to, I mean, ETH dominance since this has started, it's gone from about seven to 12. And this feels like it's just begun. I do think Solana will have this when the ETFs start to pick up pace and, you know, trap five positions themselves. And maybe you get a few different vehicles like this come through, but it may be now more of a next year trade. I don't know if like there's enough behind it. Like it feels like with ETH, there are some, I mean, there is Sol Strategies.
36:20There's a couple of other pretty large Solana treasury companies, at least with backing, which is relatively large, but it doesn't feel as deep as this. I think there's going to be a moment here where a Kingmaker trade in the next 18 months, I think, is you pick the moment where you rotate your ETH bag to Solana. If you pick that moment right, it's a Kingmaker trade because it's ETH up 100 % into Solana about to rip 300%. That feels like the Kingmaker trade if it's timed right. The question is when you time it. If this was the top of ETH, that's not a trade, right? It's like ETH needs to rip to 10K and then stabilize.
37:03And Bitcoin also can't rip to 200K because if Bitcoin rips, it's the elephant in the room and suddenly all attention shifts. What do you think, G-Money? There's a part of the ETH community that just thinks Solana's never coming back. They've now wrestled it back and they're going to push on from here. Yeah, so I'm, I mean, I firmly believe you should, like living in a world of absolutes, Like you should never be a maxi in anything. I will say I'm not like an ETH maxi per se, because I'm, you know, fully cognizant of the fact that other things could come along after the fact. But I am like obviously super bullish on ETH.
37:40And I do say I do think that there's a world where like, you know, there's going to be we're going to live in a multi-chain world where whatever, five, 10 years from now and hopefully sooner, all of that is abstracted away. And because at the end of the day, like as a user, do we know like, you know, when we send an email, like what protocol we use? And then when we go on the Internet and browse a website, what protocol? It doesn't matter. Right. They are all interconnected and they work with each other. And we have our front end UIs. And I think it's going to be very much very similar. And I just I always laugh at tribalism within crypto.
38:15Right. Like, I just think it doesn't it doesn't make sense. But I also understand why it exists. Right. because people are like, well, I want my bags to go faster, my bags to outperform here. And even sometimes when I see people compare, let's say like ETH and Sol or ETH and BTC and like rotating and whatnot. And I'm just like, I think, okay, if you're a very, very active trader, for sure. I mean, I think those things are things you focus on. But then like a way to combat that is just diversity, right? Diversification is like, hey, I'm going to put a percentage of my portfolio in this. I'm going to put a percentage of my portfolio in that.
38:48sometimes one will outperform the other, but on a risk adjusted basis, owning these assets together will outperform most. And so that's usually how I take a look at capital allocation on a personal basis. And I'm not necessarily sitting there being like, oh, well, ETH is underperforming or outperforming for the last 30 days. And then thinking that you're going to catch tops and bottoms, trying to catch relative outperformance. At the end of the day, ours will outperform inflation, right? And like the devaluization of fiat currency, right? And I think just holding any of, you know, these top three tokens that we're talking about, you're going to massively outperform most, right?
39:29Especially where, you know, I think most of the people probably listen to this podcast and especially I think us three on here, like, I mean, I still have a significant portion of my net worth in crypto, you know? And so, you know, I think I'll be fine whether I choose ETH, Sol, or BTC? So this is one of the questions I posed before the show. And you are known for your, you know, your, your crypto punk thesis. You just said diversities, you know, diversification is good in your portfolio, but Bitcoin, ETH, or PUNX, which, which of those are you picking for the next 24 months or maybe 12 months?
40:06Cause it feels like PUNX right now, there's a lot of people coming in and being like, well, if I want to own ETH, PUNX is levity, you know and it has been going up as ether's been going up it's got that veblin good style coming back to it you know you're like you want to make sure you own one as if it goes to 10k because everyone will will remember um arthur hayes coming in and sweeping then we've seen huge sweeps of expensive punks like hoodie punks um is this is this the time where where punks breaks through the all-time high was that 450k yeah do you think do you think it just matches ether from here so i i think it's funny because as long as i've been in especially crypto punks uh this conversation has always happened i'll and i'll never forget the first time i bought a crypto punk i bought a zombie eth was trading at around 525 550 so that's a subtle flex for anyone who doesn't know um uh crypto punks uh that's that is a subtle flex to buy a zombie but we can continue the story so at the time i think the zombie was around twenty thousand dollars so i bought i bought the zombie.
41:11And I specifically remember it was sold to me by Nate Alex. And in like the negotiation process, he was like, well, you know, I think like ETH is going to go up. So like, I want to sell this, you know, so I can capture the upside in ETH. And then because there were a lot of guys that were trading around CryptoPunks pretty actively for a number of years, and they were kind of like market making, you know, buy low, sell high and whatnot. And so my thesis always was, if I think ETH is going to outperform, I want to own ETH-denominated assets. Very similar to when the stock market outperforms, you want to be selling, you want to own expensive cars, cigars, wines, expensive real estate, all these things.
41:52Because when you have that wealth effect, people want to display that in some way, shape, or form, whether it's with a watch or one of those high-value goods that I just mentioned. And so I was always super bullish on it. And I think this whole outperformance, underperformance that people talk about is like, well, if ETH is at 10K, then the punk floor will go down. Right. And so I firmly disagree with that because I think if ETH is at 10K, you as an owner of ETH assets, you will feel wealthier. So you'll be willing to splurge more. And, you know, there's a very limited number. There's only 10 ,000 crypto funks, right?
42:28They're extremely rare assets. When you think about, you know, the global basis of everything. And, and so I'm, I, you know, gun to my head, 24 months, I, you know, I have a lot of punks. I still hold a lot of punks. I'm not looking to sell any, anytime soon. I'm super bullish on them as a reflexive asset, not just for ETH, but just as crypto in general. And I think we're going to start seeing like, and even so over the last, definitely over the last two weeks, I'd say. But the CryptoPunk floor has been above one Bitcoin for a minute. And I think it was briefly below there for a couple of months in the last couple of years.
43:11But I think we're going to see it as we go higher if you expect CryptoPunks to go higher. Well, I think, yeah, the Punks floor is$190 ,000 right now versus obviously Bitcoin floor about$115 ,000. And just to give a bit of context to the viewers here, Spencer did one of the best trades, I think, of the cycle here in buying Moonbirds, which has been one of the NFT collections which has done best over the last couple of months. So you're probably one of the best people to pitch NFTs here. We'll get your thoughts on Punks too, and then maybe get into what you've got going on with Moonbirds and why now's the time for them.
43:46Yeah, so I think it's very simple what's happening right now. And I think this is my thesis on what's driving the CryptoPunks stuff today. I think there's the overall crypto fund thesis and there's the today thesis. And what I see happening right now is you look at these treasury codes for ETH. This is a lot of what's driving Ethereum adoption overall today.
44:11And they are pushing ETH price up, up, up, up. But ETH is a$400 billion asset, right? If those treasury codes, one of the things that they're doing is competing with each other, right? How do you differentiate? How do you beat ETH yield? right? One of the ways that you can do that is by like accumulating NFTs. Well, not saying that's the correct answer or the wrong answer, but it's one way to differentiate yourself from the other players. There's that long list of ETH, treasury, co's, public companies, etc. Now the public company bid, CryptoPunks, even at$200 ,000 a piece, is a market cap of like$2 billion, right?
44:46$2 billion, not$400 billion like ETH, right? We're talking about all these other assets like Bitcoin, right? You know, ETH, even Solana, like these are like hundreds of billions of trillions of dollars assets. This is like watching the effect of the institutional bid on them is very substantial. If the institutional bid before going to other altcoins goes to NFTs, specifically if the treasury companies begin themselves picking up CryptoPunks, for example, it does not take a lot of those and does not take a relatively large amount of capital to move the market cap of CryptoPunks incredibly substantially, right?
45:21We have seen the effect of the institutional bid on$100 billion asset, and it went to$400 billion, right? That's sort of the ETH story. We have not really seen the effect of the institutional bid on a$2 billion asset and where that takes it. And if it takes it to$410 billion, then I think you start to say, well, maybe NFTs are a better paired like ecosystem play within these treasury codes and like maybe nfts leapfrog the line in terms of getting onto the public markets against some of the other assets that you might think might happen sooner right that's i think the the current like super bowl thesis on nfts is like these public treasury codes that are doing so well on eeth begin expanding the ecosystem and the first thing they do is buy a crypto punk and then the question is what's the next thing they do right do they expand that strategy and do they continue going lower and lower and does the expectancy of maybe i could be in one of them uh benefit these products most fundamentally yeah if a punk treasury company does i mean we've already started to see this pengu has got a has got potentially an nft etf coming out but not a treasury company i think a punk's treasury company if that this is the talk of NFTs right now, right?
46:38And it doesn't need to be a Punks only treasury company. That's, I think, a really important part is I think it's most likely going to be an Ethereum treasury company that also has Punks, right? And so what's that ratio? Like, I'm not 100 % sure, but even if it's 10, 15, 20, 30 % that is allocated outside of, that is like Ethereum and Ethereum beta and 20, 30 % is the beta, right? That's all it takes. You only need a small amount of beta to out, as long as your beta outperforms to outperform someone who's just alpha right and that's the competitive landscape for these basically undifferentiated products which are treasury codes yeah i and i will say we've already started to see that right uh that uh gsq holdings bought a crypto punk ape last week right they bought lesner's ape so we we already see that some of them are starting to differentiate that i actually just shared with you amando their um twitter handle and they bought the ape, they made it their profile picture.
47:33And I think to Spencer's point, we're going to see a lot of these companies be like, all right, well, where can we generate more yield? Where can we increase our effective ETH per share? And I think a great way to do that is probably through these high value NFTs that are relatively liquid, that have established themselves. You're not going to see NFT mints that are happening next week and then being added to these treasury codes. you're going to have to see it's going to be these these long-standing communities that have an active let's say a pretty active market around them and and that's probably where they're first going to start bidding well and i think a really important part of that is going to be like like at the most fundamental level crypto is often driven by where its inflows are and historically inflows have been inflows to on-chain in or inflows to exchanges those are the two types of inflows that exist, right?
48:27And a lot of it was like exchanges are aggressively spending, they're growing. The most marketing spend in all of crypto used to come from exchanges kind of acquiring users, right? What we don't see this cycle is really exchange-driven user-based growth and liquidity growth in crypto. What we do see this cycle is public company-driven, like Wall Street marketing engine-driven growth of crypto. This is why these inflows to ETFs matters is why these treasury codes matter. And this is why like, you know, I think if you think of NFTs as a platform, like one of the things that the platform matters for right now is what is your stance on this public markets thing?
49:03Because this is where all the capital and crypto is coming from right now. And it's a very dramatic and paradigmatic shift from a few years ago when, you know, Wall Street was very anti-crypto. The government was very anti-crypto and this was almost unimaginable. And now, well, they're the ones bringing all the money in. So they're sort of the ones controlling the narrative. And if they're picking, you know, as you said, Game square right with the crypto puns i think it's a big part of the overall narrative for all assets right now in crypto is how do you play this particular thing that's happening look guys if i if i was to pick two people that could be up there for being the uh the tom lee or joe lubin of an nft treasury company you guys would both be up there uh you got no one's reached out i mean spencer you kind of you did this if you hadn't have so much going on you kind of had an nft focused fund uh before it was cool potentially um i actually want to get to actually just focus in on what you're up to at the moment which is with with moonberge which um was obviously a project known uh more infamously in more recent times um as as kind of a project we didn't really live up to expectations was a project originally launched by kevin rose you came in and bought the ip off of um yuga labs right who had originally bought the uh ip off kevin rose and have turned well at least turned around the full price you've integrated with some of your the trading card company that you'd also helped um create i think if the viewers would really be interested to hear like what what are you doing with moonbirds at the moment yeah i mean we're doing a lot of stuff right i think like as you mentioned like like it just seemed like there was this opportunity for NFTs to come back and also for like, you know, what Moonbirds was is very interesting, right?
50:47It's a company with a lot of history, right? An all-time high floor price of 40 ETH. I think there's 350 ,000 ETH lifetime trading volume on the main collection. That's over a billion dollars, right? Like that's a very substantial thing to exist. And, you know, it's gone through this very storied history, but so has all of crypto, right? And so we looked at this, we were like, all right like you know if this is what's on the horizon and we think and the thing that we think is going to play out is the thing that plays out then like moonbirds makes a lot of sense for for us to pick up and run with as sort of our horse into this right um i think you know what we needed to do in the beginning was reactivate the initial community what we needed to do then is sort of build internally how do we grow it as an ip as a resource as as something that is meaningful to the industry like one of the things that we look at like you know floor price goes up to goes down markets do market thing, but like, what is relative volume on on birds, right?
51:43And volume on the words has been quite high, we've been number one in volume and NFTS many of the days. But even in days, we're not we're still in top five, right? And like, it's a meaningful part of the discussion, right? And so part of this bet overall is what is the value to being a meaningful part of this discussion, and also having a lot of the bullets ready to fire a lot of the things that like, you know, maybe some of the other projects have made certain moves that create liabilities in the bear market that we just didn't make, right? We're taking on this project that both has history, but like we're hard restarting it, right?
52:16Like we're not focused on what was in the past. And so it doesn't have a lot of the same kind of liabilities that some other projects have. And we get to run a 2020, we got to run Moonbirds in 2025, like it's a 2025 project, which is very different than how you would run, right? Like you think of something like a Yuga Labs, you know, had has made commitments to a metaverse and they had a DAO, right? Those were the things that made sense at that time in 2021. But in 2025, you don't see people launching metaverses, you don't see people launching DAOs, right? They just undaubed their DAO. I think that made a lot of sense, right?
52:50I think it was less controversial than maybe people expect it to be. but like the beauty of Moonbirds right now is that we get to build it into like something that just makes sense and gets to be at, you know part of these meaningful conversations that are really important inflection point overall for adoption, right? Like, you know, I come from this world of like you know, when we venture back and we invest in companies like we're hyper focused on like taking them from$10 million companies to billion dollar companies, right? Above that, we have less experience. You know, like I tell people when they hit a billion dollars on their token like I'm not the first phone call you should make when you're in trouble.
53:23before that that's fine um but like this is where like you know we we wanted to stay take a step back and like really do it ourselves and so that's why for moonbirds it's like how do we pick up a company that's in the range that we're comfortable with and try and take it to the range that we've not done before and like that's kind of where where we really think about moonbirds from from a holistic level um from a practical and application standpoint like right now is a lot about ip growth and like how do we get more information and distribution and just be more relevant in a time when being relevant in nfts is very valuable um you're right like right now i've said it before but if you can own an nft brand without the baggage right now there's a lot of things you can do there's a lot of things you can do suddenly with with the tone coming out of um the us it feels as though this is the the time you could do things that in 2021 would have required like an offshore foundation like a dow like something to kind of push it through and now it feels like yeah it's a good time to look at some of these i i reckon and the irony is a lot of them are are going the other way and like shutting down um well it's like that was a great if you're in this moment not winning then like there is no better moment right and so like i think a lot of people are like all right if we're not winning nfts are winning really hard if we're an nft product and we're not winning in this moment like it's time to find new leadership or time to do something like nft companies one of the most interesting about nfts is like Like while they are shutting down, I expect that we'll see a lot more M &A in the NFT space like over the next six months.
54:52Like we, I'm glad we did it when we did because it was probably much cheaper than doing it now. But I think that like, you know, if this continues the way it's looking, like I would not be surprised if other projects also get acquired. I think projects with a fungible token market are a lot harder to acquire than those without. And I think that's a really key part of kind of the matrix of things here because it's the projects that have fundable tokens in market that aren't doing well, that have the hardest path forward. Yeah, cool cats. Who's going to buy that? It feels like we're in that sort of market.
55:28Right, we'll get to the... We've only got five minutes left here, guys. I think we've gone through a ton of different topics from macro, crypto, now NFTs. But we'll get some questions from the viewers now. I just want to again shout out our affiliate partner Arch Public. Obviously, they've been with us for a number of months now. Feels like we're in a choppy market. Go check out their algos. I'm sure they've been trading very, very well for the last, well, the last month, really, particularly on Bitcoin. You can register for free at realvision.com forward slash arch. Actually, there are a couple of questions here on Moonbirds, but I feel like you've answered a large amount of those.
56:06We'll go to the next question, which was, may I ask for your views on Besant's statements? We are exploring new possibilities in decentralized computing and digital payments to unlock the potential of blockchain technology. Which companies or coins might benefit from this? So which coins or companies might benefit from a shift from the U.S. government to decentralized computing and digital payments? I'm not really too sure on that one. I feel like there are a few of these decentralized compute coins on Solana, but I don't know if I'd go and buy some of those digital payments. I feel like this is more just a question about stable coins.
56:47Is there anything that jumped out to either of you guys on decentralized computing digital payments? People have talked about Tau. Oh, you're big in Tau, aren't you, G-Money? Why don't you talk about Tau for a little bit? Yeah, so my first thought on Decent... And I think you are too, Mando, right? Are you still in? I have been in the past. I'm not as big anymore. Definitely not as big anymore. But there was a period where I was a big Tau guy. Well, so I'd love to hear why you pared back. But yeah, I mean, I think when I hear decentralized compute, I immediately think of Tau. And I think it's interesting because I think about it a lot.
57:19It's like, why has it been underperforming for the last couple of months? And I think part of it is probably their tokenomic structure of how they're set up, which I think works long term. But I think in a world where a lot of startups will set up some sort of pontification of their tokenomic structure so that number goes up very fast. That's, you know, it's probably one of those slower horses where people are going to wait. But I do think that the ecosystem that's being built around Tau in general is pretty cool. I was at Proof of Talk about two months ago over in Paris. And just like the excitement in the ecosystem, it was really, really awesome.
57:58And it got me more excited and bullish on the ecosystem in general. In terms of stable coins, I know people have been throwing some stuff out there. I think I read some thesis around Curve and Ina, Athena and stuff like that. I haven't been as close because I feel like I'm a little late to that trade. And I wasn't necessarily looking at it as closely before. I do own some Frax, which is from last cycle. And I know they've been iterating and setting themselves up for this type of situation. So, you know, I think there are opportunities there. I think it's just really who can like have the lobbying power and is set up in the right place in order to fully take advantage of it.
58:44But I'm not close enough on like the stablecoin infrastructure to really have a really good opinion on that. yeah we could have we could have really spoken about tau a lot because i am actually this is potenser by the way it's the the ticker is tau but but it's potenser is is the name of the of the chain it is super interesting like i'm why i really agree with what you just said it's got this belief behind it from a lot of people who are deep into ai as like an alternative basically or like a this is going to be absolutely massive in like 10 to 20 years which is why I've always owned some I only played it down from like a top down perspective I just wanted to be in in majors but it's one that I can consistently look at and I know it's one of those coins if it starts rallying and starts breaking out there'll be a lot of FOMO because a lot of people have owned it at one stage and been like oh this is really interesting like me and perhaps I've got smaller positions now and I just feel like it does feel like one of those coins.
59:46For those not really familiar, it's kind of like a reward mechanism for AI. It has the same sort of tokenomics as Bitcoin, but there's a number of different... They're called subnets. Am I right? Subnets. I forget if they're called... I know subnets are from AVAX, and I've forgotten if I had the right terminology. But they basically do various different things related to AI applications, and you get rewards based on the efficacy of what you're doing on the different subnets. So it's like, it is a super interesting system and there's a lot of different things being built on it. So yeah, I would guess that Tau would be one I'd look at on the back of Besant's comments.
1:00:23We have end of alt season, can we see on YouTube? What do you reckon of that, Spencer? Do you reckon end of alt season here? It feels a bit premature. We have seen the others index doing well has retreated, but end of old season. Here's my take. I think this actually ties these two together. I think that there's a lot of things that are very obviously happening, right? Very obviously stablecoins are becoming a big thing, but very obviously AI is becoming a big thing, right? However, there is also not very obviously trades to give you exposure to both of those theses within crypto, and I think it's very dangerous to think that there is, right?
1:01:06Stablecoins is funny because like Even USDC, if BlackRock comes out with BlackRock stablecoin, that could be a real challenger. It's not obvious that being first is better. This is my joke earlier on the show. USDC to$5, there's not an easy bet on USDC to$5, more stablecoin adoption. Maybe you buy Circle in the public markets, but really, there's a lot of things that happen. The best intersection for a trade is things that you think will happen and a clear way to get exposure to them happening. I think this second leg is where a lot of things break down, especially because the competition coming into crypto from these traditional players, and we won't see it immediately, it'll take them time to adopt, but it's going to be very real over the long haul.
1:01:49And who's the actual long term winner is tough, right? In AI, right? I think there's like three companies that are meaningful, right? You've got like Anthropic, you've got OpenAI, you've got Cursor, like there's a couple, maybe not three, but it's countable, the number. And there's a lot of like, very not the same derivatives. and I'm very skeptical a lot of the ways that you can get exposure to there being more stable coins in crypto or like AI happening in crypto overall but I think this is actually part of this like NFT, CryptoPunk, Moonbirds culture thesis is like the thing that Wall Street can never replicate is the culture, is the art, is the things where the tech itself is not the moat because tech isn't a moat because it becomes undifferentiated.
1:02:32I think this is what we're so far ahead for so long. And then nobody talks about Polygon that much anymore, right? Like, the tech amongst L2s became undifferentiated. And the winners of that market are people who understood culture better and who have culture better. Like the thing that is, if you believe on-chain culture is going to be a thing, like there is a very obvious way to get exposure to that. Like, CryptoPunks are hard to unseat as the leader of on-chain culture. Like there are other NFTs around that that are, but like BlackRock cannot come in and make BlackRock CryptoPunks, like they just wouldn't be as serious competitor as BlackRock Stablecoin would be because the driver of adoption for stablecoins is these institutional plays and the institutions like other institutions.
1:03:14But institutions are not going to attempt to do culture plays like they just can't. It's not a thing that makes sense for them. And so that's where like the moat that the historic like crypto Twitter and the crypto as we know it from the prior cycles, that moat does not exist on a tech level, I believe, fundamentally. It does, however, exist on a culture level. And that's why I think it's really important when you're picking your bets and making your investments is the absolute worst and most emotional trades I've ever made are ones where I'm very certain that a thing will happen in the world.
1:03:47And I just picked the wrong way to get proxy exposure to that thing happening. And I think there's a lot of people I see in crypto making specifically that mistake at size right now. Yeah, I've done that before. You literally have the exact thing that's going to happen and you buy the wrong asset for it. This cycle or this last few months example would be probably some of the ETH beta plays. They've kind of underperformed to a large extent, even ETH. I feel like as soon as ETH started moving, everyone was like, right, I need to own this. Only really punks and a couple of coins have done okay. And a lot of stuff has just kind of just done the same is what ETH has done, or sometimes even worse.
1:04:31Luckily, I avoided that. I made sure I owned ETH this time. But I agree with you. That's one of the main errors I see. It's the same way that people bought ordinals last year because they thought Bitcoin was going to go higher. I thought, all right, I need to own Bitcoin beta, and then that all. Yeah, I mean, imagine just being like, I believe in the future of Bitcoin, and then you've lost all your money in Bitcoin and ordinals. That's the worst place to be. Actually, I think this has happened more generally, where like the best crypto portfolios amongst my friends are my friends who don't do anything in crypto and just own a bunch of BTC, right?
1:05:04Like BTC is this in a very substantial way, this cycle dominate, like, you know, Bitcoin was like, what, 17 ,000 and it's now 120 ,000. Like very few betas to that at all have out before. And certainly not baskets of what you would think to be betas. Always make sure you're in part of the winner. Like if you're bullish on NFTs, always make sure you own some punks. You know what I mean? Cool. All right. Well, we'll end it there. It's been a great hour, I think. There were a couple more questions, but I'm afraid we haven't had time to get through everything. G Money and Spencer are going to be regular co-hosts.
1:05:38We're going to be having them on at various different times, I think, over the next few months. Ra will be on the show next week. But yeah, thanks again for tuning in. Thanks a lot for coming by, Spencer and G Money. Really appreciate your thoughts today. And we will be back again next Friday, same time. Thanks, everyone. See you next week.
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