The Tariff Battle Heats Up | Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays: October 27, 2025

0:00Before we begin with the show, I just want to take a minute to shout out our friends over at Bitwise. Bitwise has a lot to offer people like us who live and breathe crypto. They are a crypto asset manager with more than$10 billion in client assets. They offer more than 30 products, and they've been building some of the most successful solutions in crypto since 2017. But here's what really stands out for me. Bitwise actually gets the crypto community. They donate a percentage of their profits from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds to the developers who help keep those networks running. What's their philosophy?

0:30If the ecosystem wins, everyone should win. And that includes the builders. You can't help but respect that. So go check out Bitwise. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all they've got to offer. And that's bitwiseinvestments.com. There are tons of ways to invest in crypto. Do it with the people who care. Look for Bitwise. Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world.

1:05Thanks a lot.

1:30Hello out there. Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays. My name is Miguel Rosenblatt, your usual host, and as usual, I'm joined by Andreas Steno. It's been another very, very eventful and packed weekend, and we're here to unpack it all for you at Macro Mondays. Remember, this is our weekly free show where we give you a sneak peek into all the analysis and trade recommendations that we post on Real Vision. For the full package, you'll have to go to Real Vision Pro for that. More on that a little bit later. We've got a very packed week ahead of us in Real Vision on Tuesday, tomorrow at 10 a.m.

2:05Eastern. Jared Dillian joins Ash Bennington to preview the Fed meeting on Wednesday. On Wednesday at 7 p.m. Eastern, Jamie Coutts gives a live update to the crypto market after the Fed meeting and the expected rate cut there. And then on Thursday, I'm joined by you, Andreas, for the monthly macro meets micro, where we give you a live update on our trading portfolio, which is doing very, very well, despite a couple of small setbacks today. So lots of interesting stuff to follow. If you are a subscriber at Real Vision, I do recommend that. If you're only here for the free show that we do on Monday, there's Macro Mondays, remember to post your questions, whether you're watching on YouTube, Twitter, or whatever, and we'll pick them up either live on the show afterwards or in next week's show.

2:52So lots of good stuff there. Quite the weekend, Andreas. I just want to ask you, how back are we right now? Are we this back, Andres? I brought a banana this time. Are we this back? I almost felt scared when you reached the desktop there. Well, I don't think we're quite there, but it's obviously a good day. Watching the screens right now, NASDAQ is up 350 index points or something like that in the first future. So big relief rally on the back of Scott Besson's comments yesterday that we have some sort of trade truce with China on the cards later this week. We obviously still look forward to Trump and Xi actually shaking hands.

3:40Is it on Thursday or Friday? I don't think we know the exact timing of it yet. It's obviously in conjunction with this broader meetup in South Korea. the weekend has been full of news from the u.s administration on on deals with various asian countries so in essence it seems like we've quote-unquote bought ourselves some very very valuable time on this whole question on on trade not least related to rare earths because that's obviously been center of attention whether these rare earth magnets would be um yeah would be exempt from the current turmoil or not. And it seems like they have some sort of framework in place where they at least kick the can down the road on this whole issue.

4:26We'll get back to that a little bit, Andreas. Lots of stuff to unpack there. I can't help but notice, Andreas, is that an exercise bite behind you? I don't think you usually have that, do you? No, no. But, well, we're trying to send the right message to our audience here, Mikkel. Don't expect me to use it a lot. but it's here for the show, right? I don't know if this is the target, Andreas, but I just want, I don't know, do you know the queen of crypto, Onyx? I just want to post this picture as one of the hot takes of the week and just if you agree here that the bottom is in. I don't know if that's the target body that you're going for with the bike, but anyway, just to sum up this, we're not going to talk too much crypto, but do you think the bottom is in?

5:13Was this it for the China trade scare? Yes, at least for now. We'll obviously return to this topic probably on an ongoing basis. I have a couple of main takeaways from what we've seen during these trade talks over the weekend. First of all, I think it's evident that we, and when I say we, I mean the West and the Asian democracies are starting to pay a pretty large price to keep the flow of these rare earth magnets intact. So we have to provide China with sizable concessions every time to convince them not to curb these exports. For now, we haven't seen actual export curbs. We've obviously seen attempts to threaten the rest of the world with these export curbs, but they're not curbed as per now.

6:08But obviously, every time we see these trade talks, every time there is a round of trade talks, they bring up this topic again. Back in May, they agreed on a trade truce also related to rare earths. Already during June, we saw issues. And now, three, four months later, we have to strike a new deal, so to speak, with China on these exact rare earth magnets. So I'm not sure we're out of the woods on this question. I think we need to scramble to secure our own supply chains in the West. A couple of the very, very popular names within this rare earth space, they've taken a beating from the get-go of the trading session here.

6:49I consider that natural given that the can has kicked down the road, but I don't think this was it for this rare earth cycle, to be honest. Let me ask you as well, Nico, around this topic, because it seems like they hold the upper hand to some extent in these trade negotiations because we need these rare earth magnets as everything from the fighter jets to the missiles to semiconductors, et cetera, right? So we're stuck in a peculiar situation in the West on this topic. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's the setup right now. We're not going to be able to change that within the next 12 months. On the other hand, China knows that they have a certain window to leverage this upper hand.

7:33And I think that is what they're trying to do. We're still to fully understand what they're sort of getting in return for this, aside from a cool down on tariffs, maybe. But it's very, very clear that China knows that they've built this upper hand, this advantage, and they're going to play it over the coming years. So what's going to happen over the next 12 months? We can't solve this. we can begin to solve it. And that's a very, very strong trade thematic. The geopolitical chessboard might change entirely over the next 12 months. So that's hard to bet on. But it's not hard to bet on that this advantage will still be China's in 12 months' time.

8:14But that the West will do its utmost to begin fixing this. We have already done some. The European Union passed the Bare Earth Minerals Act. Trump is moving very, very aggressively using federal funding to solve this problem. I think the EU is going to go even more aggressively in that direction. And that's sort of the trade takeaway for me here, Andreas, because the geopolitical chessboard tariffs, we don't know where that stands in 12 months. We might have new conflicts. We might have a peace in Ukraine. So the US-China dynamic could be different 12 months from now, but the rare earth dynamic is going to be mostly the same.

8:52So that's still the window we have for investments. That's a certain, and that's a very, very significant playing field. One thing I'd like to know more about, and we obviously don't know the details as of now, is whether China intends to keep this global military ban on rare earth magnets intact. We haven't really seen any details from Scott Besson on that, because that would obviously be a very, very interesting takeaway also from a geopolitical perspective if they're not willing to provide the magnets for the F-35s, to take one example, right? Those are some Maorium-based. You simply need China in that supply chain.

9:33You also need China in the supply chain for various long-ranging missiles, right? So is this the actual reason why Trump is holding back on the tomahawks to Ukraine? Is it out of fear that the U.S. is simply running out of ammunition, so to speak? that's part of it. He is getting that feedback from within the military system. Still, I think, in the very long-term strategic view, China can only play this card so many times because the more they play it, the more it appears to the West that we have to do something about this. And there are solutions. They're going to take a very, very long time to implement.

10:07It's going to be very, very expensive to implement. It's going to take a lot of government money. I don't think there is a pure market solution to this. But there are solutions to this. There are ways to fix this problem in the West. And I think China has delivered the wake-up call for us on this. So that's absolutely the angle. It seems to me, Andreas, that this is another one of the cases where the market was waiting. We had this meme of, I just want to bring it on here, it's hilarious, of Trump being the resistance and Xi and Putin being the support. Perhaps this should be Scott Bessing being the support because it seems like whenever shit hits the fan, you send in Scott Bessing and markets are calmed.

10:48Just as long as he says, we have a solution, people trust, okay, then there's probably a decent solution, whatever he comes up with, even if we don't know quite what it is. Miguel, I saw another Twitter account posting a picture from the negotiations yesterday. And to be honest, it looked very much like a guy called Tom Lee. If you know that guy, you know, the Ethereum bull. It looked like he was present there. Of course, it wasn't him. And as soon as that appeared, and everyone started buying crypto yesterday.

11:21To be honest, having traded these markets for a while, I think it's been, I can't recall a year where political standoffs have had such an importance for markets. Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. It is slightly tiring, to be honest. And yeah, we're going back and forth between these sentiment changes on an ongoing basis. It is sort of, I don't know quite the right expression for this, but it is something that wanes itself out. Because a few cycles back, a decade back, a U.S. government shutdown would have been a huge market crisis. We're not even talking about, doesn't even matter almost to markets.

12:05The tariffs discussions, people are getting sick of it. there's still some power in the US and China breaking off trade because it's essentially the entire world trade system we're talking about. So that still holds a little bit of oomph to it. But I think over time, we will get used to these cycles. And we have to get used to the fact that the US and China are decoupling to some extent. Yeah, Michael, maybe we can show the chart on the imports to the US and these critical materials and so on. because I think that's actually a key takeaway from this weekend. No matter whether we get a trade deal or not, I think we've crossed the rupee con to use a cliche within geopolitics, right?

12:51We're past the point where the West can just lean back and accept to be this reliant on China in such an important supply chain. They've shown their hand. They've shown their willingness to use this against the West. They used this against Japan back in 2010 after a territorial dispute. But they've never used it to this extent versus the US versus the Eurozone. And we obviously have to act. There's no doubt about that. And as you can see, even... Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo.

13:44See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets.

14:17Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

14:32despite imports going down on a running basis between china and the u.s we're also seeing the proportion of that in critical materials going down even more so i mean we are decoupling also in the rare earth space we've also seen trump scrambling for deals with australia with kazakhstan etc to try and avoid china and the supply chain to the extent that you can Absolutely, Andreas. And we see this in all spaces. I also have a chat that didn't bring it on investments that are decoupling from the US and China. So this is a megatrend. It's going to take a couple of decades. We're not at Cold War levels.

15:06The US and China are still going to be trading very much. The EU is still going to be buying lots of stuff from China. But China's role is changing as well. They're moving up in the value chain as well. So they also have some windows to play these cards. as at some point China's not going to be refining this stuff either because they don't have the manpower for it, perhaps. So, yeah, very, very interesting, very, very bullish for markets, obviously, that you had some sort of inkling of a deal. I think, Andreas, on the Ukraine topic, slightly more on the Gaza topic, we've had a lot of back and forth, a lot of 180s.

15:47I think the Trump administration, and Trump in particular, is a little bit more careful when it comes to China. So I'm not too fearful of, because that theory has been out there that things could break down once Trump and Xi meets. I don't think so. First of all, I don't think they communicate very much one-on-one. And I think Trump is very, very careful here because he knows that this can really, really shake markets. It really, really shake stuff. So I'm not too fearful ahead of these talks later this week. I think usually when Xi gets involved, everything is settled and everything is done. So I think that should more or less be a formality and that we have some kind of deal and some easing on markets, which is obviously positive, Andreas.

16:30So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. So maybe let's look a little bit further ahead or maybe let's just go back to some good old macro-andrefs. We had the CPI print on Friday just to talk about something a little bit more down to earth maybe. And I just want to ask you two things here. First of all, we've come to the point where energy can't really keep down the year-on-year levels anymore because it was already low levels a year ago.

17:12But still, where is the inflation? Is it in the room with us? I guess to some extent, right? But it's clearly not in the room with us to the extent that was expected by every single investment bank. As I've said before, all of the big investment banks have had close to a perfect 0 % hit ratio this year. They've highlighted the risk to growth from tariffs over and over, and they've highlighted the risk to inflation spiraling upwards due to tariffs over and over. And we're not really seeing either. When you look at the details from this inflation report, it's actually a very benign report outside of energy costs.

17:56We've obviously seen how electricity costs have gone up in the US, not to the same extent as elsewhere. But we're currently trending towards higher electricity price levels. We're trending towards higher gasoline price levels now, in my opinion, as well. Now that we see oil prices at least starting to sort of accommodate the news that we've seen over the past couple of weeks, and they're starting to trend upwards to some extent. So I guess overall, no, inflation is not in the room with us, at least not relative to the expectations that were brought forward by all of this, both central banks and investment banks earlier this year.

18:40We're trending-ish between 2.5 % and 3 % on a trend basis. That's not a catastrophe. It's obviously not target, but it's not a catastrophe. And it's far, far from the worst-case scenarios that were painted by others. No. Another part of this, Andreas, is the freight race. We talked a lot about this a year ago when we had the Red Sea crisis. I mean, we technically still have that going on, but just like with the government shutdown, people get used to this. And all the shipping giants are getting used to this. But they're seeing rates dropping through the floor. We obviously had a huge spike earlier this year, two major spikes, among other things related to front loading of tariffs.

19:32But we are seeing very, very benign freight rates, which obviously also aids the CPI picture on all transportation from Shanghai to Europe or North America. So this is obviously also testament to the beginning, slowly building, decoupling of these economies. also a matter obviously of supply. I've heard that from a couple of experts in the business here in Denmark. It's a matter of big congenial ships coming in there. But this is obviously also aiding inflation. We're taking inflation down. Sure. And, you know, this is the kind of backdrop we're seeing ahead of the FOMC meeting now, right? Inflation is not, you know, anywhere near what people feared, despite tariffs.

20:20I still think that we have some terrorist effects left for 2026, but it's pretty clear that they're being massaged into the consumer prices very slowly but surely. It's also very clear that we do not see rising import prices, which is very important here in this equation. Japanese car manufacturers, for example, they've lowered the prices for the U.S. domestic market while they've hiked prices for the rest of the world, which is the exact opposite effect of what everyone projected except more or less us. So I'm still very happy with what we've said on inflation since April. We've continuously said that you shouldn't expect inflation to show up in the size that everyone highlighted.

21:02And we've continuously said that the rest of the world will also feel a part of this tariff's impact since it will be distributed across the global supply chain. it will not just be one big fat bill for the American consumer. It will be distributed. And that's why I've said over and over, a tariff is the only tax where you can actually feasibly claim that a part of the bill is paid by foreigners. And I stress a part of the bill, because there is obviously a bill for everyone. And even if it's only 15%, 20%, I think most reports are showing, that's still something from a tax revenue. A large part of it is swallowed by the importer as well.

21:48We know that. I want to jump to a couple of audience questions, Andreas, here. Let's start with Gabriel from the Real Vision platform. Hello, gentlemen. Are you expecting further corrections on the S &P due to the new orders coming lower for October and perhaps a lower ISM print for November? Or do you think this correction is likely over? well, I think we're basically past the worst on this China story. I understand why you highlight that October probably wasn't the best growth month for this year. When you look at the container volumes from China to the US, we've obviously seen almost a Liberation Day 2.0 impact on container volumes, which will impact growth both in China and the US through the month of October.

22:41The good thing is that once we get those growth numbers for October, we know that the problem is mostly solved. So I don't think you should care too much about a small setback on, for example, PMIs as a consequence of this because, well, sure, it could be a hiccup for the PMI picture, but the overall trend still looks benign, especially if you look at the PMIs that are most relevant. the S &P ones. So I get why you'll ask this question around the growth momentum in October because it doesn't look overly pretty due to the container volumes dropping. But I don't think it's a biggie if we know that the problem is already solved or at least kicked down the road.

23:23Okay, there's a bit of a harpoon here. I should have prepared you for this, but it just came in via YouTube. So it's completely fair if you want to push this for one of our shows later this week. But from Rina here, how does silver look until the end of the year? I think silver is a decent story still. It's obviously connected to a weak dollar that we've seen this year. It's connected to a manufacturing uptick. It's connected to the gold rush among the global south. And it's connected to the solar case, which is starting to gain traction. So you have almost a handful of decent explanations why silver is going up.

24:00Silver looks incredibly bullish technically still, at least if you zoom out a little bit. But it's one of those assets where, you know, you basically have decades between such rallies. And a lot of the silver bulls that are currently, you know, celebrating, they've highlighted the possibility of this silver rally forever. So I don't have anything against silver. We also hold exposure to precious metals in our portfolio. And I think it is a relevant theme, especially given the ongoing decoupling between U.S. and Global South peers. We've obviously seen China rerouting exports to all sorts of Global South peers.

24:42And as a consequence of that, we're also seeing flows being rerouted into gold and silver from an official institutional perspective in many of these global south countries. So all in all, what I'm trying to say here, I get why silver is accelerating. And I don't necessarily think the trend is over, but I don't think it's the biggest position you need to hold in your portfolio. An interesting question here from Dan Top from the Real Vision platform. What are the key variables that could unlock more liquidity? Well, we get some early clues already this week from the Federal Reserve because for those of you who have followed my research over the past month, we've seen more and more signs of a reserve scarcity, basically.

25:33so the amount of dollars available for commercial banks and their net position with the Federal Reserve is very tight and that's basically been the missing link in the liquidity equation so far this year we've had liquidity creation from the US Treasury we've had liquidity creation from commercial banks but we haven't had liquidity creation from the Federal Reserve they've kind of allowed the rest of the system to deal with that but now they need to add liquidity if they want to control short-term money market rates. It's not overly urgent, but they have to deal with it before New Year's, in my opinion.

26:11And in that sense, we'll get some early clues already this week on whether they'll end QT by now or whether they'll just give us a forward date. My best guess is that they'll give us some forward date next year, meaning that from that point onwards, they'll probably start buying treasuries to at least match the growth of the economy, which is what we've seen Bank of Canada doing a couple of quarters ago. So we're starting to see the first signs of actual central bank liquidity creation on top of the liquidity creation stemming from the private credit creation that we've seen from commercial banks.

26:48So that's where we need to look for the next liquidity wave, so to speak. Great stuff. Okay, Andreas, I just wanted to do a little quick preview of the Macro Meets Micro show this Thursday. What can people expect? I mean, the portfolio has been doing incredibly well so far this year. As anyone else, we had a few hiccups here in October, but actually came out relatively okay, I think. So what can you expect? New trades, new trends going forward in broad terms? So we're going to spend some time on digesting the rare earth trade, the quantum trade, the AI trade, and some of those very popular topics.