Trading the Markets: November 26, 2025 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

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1:20Thanks a lot.

1:27happy wednesday everyone and welcome back to another episode of trading the markets with chris bullock aka blasto plas and he's actually fresh off of an interview with caleb franzen for our rv pro members so if you're not an rv pro member it's actually now a great time to become one because our Black Friday sale is officially live. So you can right now get up to 50 % off of Real Vision memberships. So make sure you head over to realvision.com forward slash Black Friday, check out more information on that. And you can become an RV Pro member or an RV Connect member and get access to Chris's portfolio, our live TA show and discord, Joe Bland's show with Nico and our Joe Bland's portfolio as well.

2:14So a lot of stuff on the Connect tier and Alpha tier, of course, you get Julian's MIT report, plus a whole bunch of other content. And also, guys, we have the crypto gathering coming up in January. So head on over to realvision.com forward slash crypto gathering for more details. And we actually just released a video on the platform from our for our members most frequently asked questions, just kind of explain to them what they can expect at the crypto gathering and what we have going on there. So make sure you check that out if you haven't already. But we have a great show for you today. We're going to be looking at global liquidity.

2:52We're going to be looking at a whole bunch of charts. We're going to check in on Bitcoin, see where that's at. So without further ado, Chris, I'm going to throw it to you. First of all, happy Wednesday. Hope you're doing well on this day before Thanksgiving. But what do you got for us today? Yeah, doing well. The markets are rebounding nicely, which we've been hoping, expecting, you know, whatever. Things look good. We're getting the bounce that we talked about on the Monday show. Like we knew that things were very oversold and we were expecting a bounce. The question just is how big of a bounce will we ultimately see?

3:26We know there's quite a bit of selling pressure still. We know there's the general consensus out there of people who are like, as soon as it gets to a hundred, I'm going to sell, I'm going to get out. As soon as it gets to whatever, 105, 110, I'm going to sell everything and get out, you know? So there's a lot of people who think that they missed the peak and that the top is in and that they're going to sell on the bounce. And so now we have the bounce and we're waiting to see if the, you know, the, the liquidity environment that we keep talking about is actually going to whatever, turn the hose on whatever word you want to use and sort of outweigh that selling pressure that we're seeing from all of the people who are planning to sell the bounce.

4:06And, uh, it's playing out before our eyes right now as we speak. So, well, the liquidity hasn't come in yet en masse, I should say. Like, if we look here, if we look at the dollar index, we can see the dollar index didn't get rejected, which is nice. We can see that global liquidity has ticked up last week and this week, which, you know, again, is sort of reflected in this dollar dip here. So we're seeing some. But if we look at it just from like a U.S. standpoint, it hasn't really moved yet. It hasn't really changed much yet. We know QT hasn't ended yet. We know, you know, just the rate cut hasn't happened yet.

4:41All of that stuff. So we're kind of waiting for it from the U.S. side. From a global side, we're seeing it a little bit. So that's nice. We do have the bounce here. On the Monday show, I highlighted several resistance levels that we were going to be looking out for as potential rejection points. And the first one was the 10-day moving average. Right now, we're above the 10-day moving average, thankfully. In fact, just like 20 minutes ago, we were below it. and it was starting to look kind of ugly. So it's nice that right as soon as this show kicked off, basically, we got a nice bounce. And the next one we have is going to be the 20-day moving average.

5:16Then we have this downward diagonal trend line. We have the 50-day moving average. Kind of the$100 ,000 level is floating around in there, that even psychological level. That's something that people talk about a lot. And then we've got a few more up and beyond that. So still early stages, still a long ways to go. So, but, you know, we're baby steps and we're moving in the right direction. And it's happening kind of across the board. Stocks look really good today, too. Stocks are all up. All the major indices are up. So that's kind of what's going on. You know, not a lot has changed since the Monday show outside of the fact that, you know, we are continuing to see the bounce, which is good.

5:56And we just have to see how it plays out, really. Yeah. So would you say we're, I guess, trending in the right direction, at least? We are indeed trending in the right direction. I'd like to see us trending a little further. It's interesting. Some alts are actually trending much faster. Seeing some major accumulation and some random stuff, big accumulation in like, you know, strange SPX, for example. I've been looking on the on-chain data. There's some big player coming in and buying huge chunks of it, you know,$90 ,000,$100 ,000 chunks of it at a time. I don't know what's going on there, but I mean, that's interesting.

6:32Nice to see. um you know just other kind of random ones uh like uh what was it um wrecked wrecked is up 27 today you know like just little little strange ones here and there and then um what was it you some popular memes that have been kind of catching a bit lately like usd what is it usd usc unstable coin rather um and uh things like that you know just random things but it's causing the it's interestingly, it's causing the others dominance to continue to do well and put in a green month. Meanwhile, we've got Bitcoin dominance, you know, putting in a red month. So it's strange to see that despite all of this sort of doom and gloom across the broader market, random alts are still outpacing and it's causing the general, you know, market cap of all of the alt market to outpace Bitcoin right now.

7:29And so, yes, strange times, strange times, strange times, indeed. So we actually had we had a great question come in from our discord that I think I want to dive in. We were talking offline before about this. We want to dive into some of it's quite a long question. So I'm going to try and shorten it as much as I can to to read it on air. But Hope Crocodile in our Discord says, here are a few short-term risks that I'm watching over the next 90 days. MSCI may remove MicroStrategy from its indexes in February, and if they do, other funds might follow. There's uncertainty around what happens when the U.S.

8:09government short-term funding deal expires on January 30, 2026. And finally, we're seeing some selling from people who still believe the four-year Bitcoin cycle will repeat. Now, given all of that, do you think these risks are already priced in, making now a good time to buy? Or is it the smarter time to wait until late January, early February to see how things shake out, assuming the investment horizon is six months to multiple years for Bitcoin?

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9:40Well, that is the million-dollar question, isn't it? You know, let me kind of back up and take that into chunks a little bit. Let's talk about the MSCI thing, first of all. So on October 10th, we had the big crash. Not uncoincidentally, this is when MSCI announced that they were potentially going to delist not only MicroStrategy, but any stock that basically holds more than 50 % of its, I guess, treasury in a digital asset. And so MicroStrategy being the biggest and the main one that we know about that does that. And so if they delist, now what would happen if they delisted it? What does that even mean?

10:25So if they delist MicroStrategy, that means that all of these mutual funds, ETFs, index funds that have MicroStrategy listed as part of their fund would be obligated to sell and divest that MicroStrategy position. And it would no longer be tracked as part of this index fund, as these index funds. So effectively, there would be a ton of forced selling. MicroStrategy would not be allowed to be listed in these indexes. And it would kind of take away the whole catalyst, this, you know, the flywheel thing, the mechanism that MicroStrategy has for existing in the first place. And so as such, MicroStrategy would not be required to sell their Bitcoin necessarily, but they wouldn't also really be enabled to buy anymore.

11:14You know, their whole kind of plan would dissolve basically. And as such, their stock price would go down because one, people wouldn't want to hold their stock because they're not going to be buying more Bitcoin. But also there would be forced selling of their stock by way of all of these index funds and ETFs and mutual funds having to divest these positions and remove them from their funds. And so there would be both kind of panic selling a little bit or sentiment selling, I guess, if you will, but also mechanical selling by way of these funds actually selling the stock, which indirectly will affect the price of Bitcoin.

11:52and it'll sort of remove MicroStrategy as a long-term catalyst for buying Bitcoin. MicroStrategy has largely held up the price of Bitcoin, more or less, over the last couple of years. Now, of course, there's been other factors. There's been ETFs and things like that. But MicroStrategy has been a big player in the price appreciation of Bitcoin over the last two years. And so it would effectively kind of remove them from the equation going forward, and it would be a pretty big deal. Now, is that priced in? I would say yes, to a large degree. I think that that is reflected in the chart. We saw sort of major outsized selling of Bitcoin, kind of disproportionate to stocks and disproportionate to even the rest of crypto, to a large degree even.

12:40So the sentiment has been priced in, the fear has been priced in, but the actual deadline for this rule to pass isn't until January. And I think it's January 15th or somewhere in the middle of January. And so it's only then at that point, once the rule actually passes, that those funds would then be forced to actually execute those sell orders. And so that part of it has not been priced in yet because we don't know if it's even going to pass yet or not. It's likely from what everything I'm reading says it's very likely to pass. Like there's a 75, 80 % chance this is likely to happen. So we're kind of going to have to deal with this going forward.

13:19This is going to be a thing, you know, unless we get lucky somehow. And it doesn't, but we have to operate on the assumption that I think it's going to pass. And so we are going to see it's going to be a change in the environment. And yeah, it's going to be interesting. Obviously, there's more going on than just micro strategy in terms of crypto and ETFs and all of that stuff. So there will be other avenues. You could argue that MicroStrategy is somewhat less relevant once the ETFs came online anyway, because prior to that, that was really the big way that a lot of people in traditional finance got exposure to Bitcoin.

13:55That was kind of the number one thing. And once the ETFs came along, it kind of negated a lot of that. And so, I don't know, it remains to be seen. Certainly, it's going to prevent MicroStrategy from continuing to buy large swaths of Bitcoin going forward. So we'll see how it goes. It's an interesting thing. And then you mentioned the other thing about the government funding potentially having to be redone again in January. Yes, that is a thing. Also, it's certainly an X factor looming out there. And we don't know. It's like, I don't think they're going to have another government shutdown. I think that would be hugely politically damaging for both sides to have yet another shutdown only a few months later.

14:37And so I think that they will do everything they can to avoid it at all costs. Certainly the stakes will be much higher for both sides in that scenario. So it's likely that they'll pass something or more likely, I would say, than certainly last time. But yeah, it also remains a thing. So then coming to should you buy now, should you wait? we kind of talked about this on the Monday show you know we've got several levels several sort of resistance levels that that I identified and I'm just kind of in the moment waiting to see how it fares over that time I think that it's probably it's probably prudent to operate on the assumption that we aren't going to set a new all-time high between now and the end of the year you know I I think that we will have some kind of a reflexive bounce here, but we don't know the point at what it's going to be rejected.

15:31So if your idea is to just kind of sit it out and wait, I would be looking for major, major hurdles to be overcome. Like once we get past, say, the bull market support band or once we get past the 200-day moving averages, like the 200-day exponential and simple moving averages. Here, let me kind of clean this up a little bit. But like these two big moving averages, the 200-day EMA and SMA, once price can get back above that, that's sort of a good, clear hurdle. Like maybe it's safe to get back in the water at that point. And ideally, once these moving averages are pointed back to the upside too, that's a thing.

16:10So I think really the best way to play it is just to wait until major technical hurdles have been overcome. Wait until we're starting to see some clarity in terms of the outcomes of those things. and the micro strategy situation, the government funding situation and go from there. But in the meantime, if we do get some macro catalyst and price starts ripping, which is possible, then just wait for sort of those big hurdles. You know, the 200 day EMA, SMA or the bull market support band, which is basically the 20 week moving average, more or less, you know, or something like that. Or Bitcoin sets a new all time high.

16:45Obviously at that point, we know that kind of it's game on a little bit. So... Yeah, I think it's time to be cautious right now, especially if you're out of the market and you're looking for a point to buy back in. Then definitely wait and don't try to catch the bottom. Don't try to catch the falling knife. I think the odds are not in your favor in that scenario. So it's tricky times at the moment, for sure. Yeah, and actually just as you were saying that, SportDad7777 came in with a very similar question about the MSCI micro strategy. so support that um if you didn't hear chris's full answer just uh replay this back now chris now like say because we have a lot of people in the rv community that have had micro strategy at one point probably still do uh what would you say to them obviously not financial advice but like from your perspective if you were holding micro strategy right now what would you be looking to do so a quick break in your regular programming if you're serious about your future grab my free report called Prepare for 2030.

17:50I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. It's tricky. Honestly, I wouldn't want to be holding it right now. There's massive selling pressure, like I said, both from a sentiment standpoint, from just selling the fear that's coming into the potential outcome of this decision. But then there's also going to be the forced selling that will come from these funds having to divest these positions should they need to. And there's anywhere, I've heard anywhere from like$2 billion to$8 billion worth of MicroStrategy stock that could be impacted by that forced selling.

18:32And you have to remember, these funds, they don't care what the price is. They have to sell. They're legally obliged to sell. So they will be selling no matter what. And it's just, that's what's going to happen. And so it's not like they're going to be strategic about it and wait for a bounce, wait for liquidity to be in a certain situation. They just have to sell. So yeah, it's not a good situation. Obviously, if the rule is in favor of microstrategy, that's going to be a significant positive catalyst, certainly from a sentiment standpoint, and we'll likely see a pretty big bounce. But right now we know, again, the odds are not in their favor.

19:12You know, the people are saying it's a 75, 80 percent chance that this is very likely to happen. And kind of the reason it is likely to happen is it's you have to what's going on here is it's not because the MSCI doesn't like Bitcoin and they're just trying to stick it to Microsoft or they're trying to, you know, you know, one up for TradFi kind of thing. It's really just based on their, their general model. And their model is such that like, they, they're designed to track operating companies, like that's what they do, businesses that make or provide services, basically. And so if a company's primary asset is, you know, a financial instrument, like a that moves one to one with the asset, and basically functions more like an ETF, or a closed end fund, and not on the basis of that company's product or service, then it doesn't, you know, meet the requirement to be listed, you know, there.

20:09And so it's really as simple as that. If you've got more than 50 % of your, if your primary asset in Bitcoin or anything else, that's a problem. And so, and it's not just micro strategy that falls into that boat. They're the biggest one, but you know, there's Bitcoin mining companies, there's other treasuries that will also be impacted by that. And so they too will be delisted also in this scenario. So yeah, you want to certainly be wary of treasuries right now. This could be a big bump in the road for Bitcoin treasuries in general. One thing it won't impact is companies that have Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but it doesn't equate to 50 % or more.

20:52Say like Tesla, for example, we know Tesla holds a large position in Bitcoin, but it's nowhere close to 50 % of their balance sheet. So they won't be forced to do anything. They're fine. It's really just these companies that hold large amounts of Bitcoin whose stock basically moves in step with the price of Bitcoin as a result. And so that's where the problem lies. And so that's what the MSCI is looking to sort of distance themselves from. And so that's the situation. And it doesn't really look good. It's going to be hard for MicroStrategy or any of these other treasuries to negotiate their way out of this or find a logical sort of workaround, you know, in this scenario.

21:33So it'll be it'll be interesting. Yeah, something we have to watch for in January as this approaches. But of course, we'll probably be getting updates or like rumors and all of that, you know, leading up until then, which, of course, we'll be sure to cover here as well, because it's going to be a very impactful thing in crypto one way or the other, regardless of whether you hold MicroStrategy or not, whether you hold Bitcoin or not. So, Chris, last question on it. So if you are taking, so which side of that, I guess, you know, I guess I can guess where you're going with it, but if you're taking this on Polymarket or Myriad Markets, which side of it are you going to place your money on?

22:16Well, I think you have to operate on the assumption that it's not going to go in the favor of MicroStrategy. I mean, it would be stupid to bet on some hopium in that scenario. Certainly, if you've got a lot of money at stake, I think that just from a risk management perspective, you need to operate on the assumption that this is going to happen. And if it doesn't happen, great. You get lucky. You can buy on the announcement, jump back in, whatever. But if you are just sitting here going, well, I'm going to take the 25 % chance and hope that this all works out. And, you know, what do you have to gain from that?

22:55Like, sure, you got some upside, it'll kind of get back to maybe where it was. But the downside is the price craters, not only the, you know, the price of MicroStrategy, but even Bitcoin probably is going to be impacted by that as well. Bitcoin. Now, keep in mind, Bitcoin will be impacted less, there will be less direct selling pressure on Bitcoin itself. Because again, MicroStrategy does not have to sell their Bitcoin in this scenario. Only their stock will be sold. And so it's more of like a sentiment crash from the Bitcoin side directly. But it will probably have a negative impact because we know going forward that there's going to be less buying coming from these treasuries.

23:33And so it might change the structure around how TradFi gains exposure to Bitcoin. Although, again, I kind of think it's a little... I don't know about all these treasuries that have come up over the last year. I still think the ETF is obviously a much more pure play. And so I struggle to see how these treasuries are as relevant as they are anyway. We know they're a lot less than the ETFs in terms of owned Bitcoin, but maybe in the long term, this will be okay. Maybe we just flush the market of the treasuries and it'll create some volatility in the short term. But in the end, people will just migrate back over to ETFs anyway.

24:15And that money will rotate back in one way or another. I don't know. Well, we'll keep an eye on it for sure. All right. So maybe we should, before we end here, maybe we should look at a few popular charts from our community. Sure. that they want to probably dive into, even though they might not have asked us directly, but we can front run that for them. So why don't we take a look at what Solana, SWE, Hype, BNB, XRP, let's maybe at a quick glance see what they're doing, see how they're holding up right now. Yeah, yeah. Let's do kind of just a general run through and see what we got here. So I'll turn on some moving averages.

24:54Oops. Okay, well, we looked at Bitcoin. Let's see, Ethereum. Nice bounce too. Above its 10-day as well, which is good. Also step in the right direction. A lot of these just look so ugly. We know everything is very oversold. It's like, I guess we don't have to comment on how ugly everything looks because we know it is. But what I want to see, what's going to put a smile on my face is to see stuff getting up to or above its 20-day moving average. That's when I'm going to start to get a little bit more excited. Ethereum is about halfway there, which I think Bitcoin is not quite halfway there. Now, if we move on to Solana, Solana looks good.

25:31Solana's at its 20-day moving average. So Solana structurally, and I remember commenting on this on Monday as well, Solana structurally is a little bit better off than Bitcoin and Ethereum. It's already back at its 20-day. So it's at its next resistance hurdle. And hopefully we see it continuing to push a little further. Moving on to SWE. SWE does not look as good. SWE poked above its 10-day. it's red on the day it's still above its 10 day but obviously not doing as good as the three that I just mentioned so lagging a little bit but not terrible either I mean it is above its 10 day so I'll you know I guess credit where it's due looking at XRP real quick as we move down the list XRP also is above its 20 days so looking good like Solana is I think I remember commenting on that as well XRP on Monday looked better than a lot of stuff and is holding up well.

26:27B &B, B &B is about halfway in between the two. So tracking with the market, not outperforming anything, but plugging away. Let's move on to hype. Hype also, hype got a little bit overextended to the downside. I feel like it had a pretty big flush out. So it had a little bit further to go to get back up, but it has made its way back up to its 10-day moving average. It's put in some nice green candles the last, you know, four days in a row. Not this, I guess this little doji candle notwithstanding here, but like it's doing what it needs to do. So I like that. I wanted to comment on Rekt too, because Rekt basically, we know Rekt experienced a liquidation event that, you know, last week that caused its price to, well, to crater, frankly, but it's basically recovered that.