Trading the Markets: October 30 2025 | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki

0:00Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto crypto in the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.

0:43Happy Thursday, everyone, and welcome back to Trading the Markets with Chris Bullock, aka BlastoPlast. We've got a great show for you today. We're going to be talking about monthly timeframes. We're going to get Chris's reaction to yesterday's Fed meeting. We're going to be talking support levels, liquidity, majors, and of course, we'll be taking your questions live. So if you have any questions for us, just throw it into the live chat on platform or just put them in Twitter and we will take as many as we can. And also a reminder to you all, this show is free, but of course we have a longer show on Mondays in Discord.

1:23If you sign up to RV Connect and you'll get access to that show, you'll get access to Chris Bullock's entry-level crypto portfolio and you'll get access to joe bland's videos and his equity portfolio as well speaking of joe bland video with him and nico just dropped today on the platform so make sure you check that out and make sure you sign up for rv connect and uh do us a favor go ahead and like and subscribe to the show uh very helpful so we can make sure we get it into as many eyes as possible because We talk to markets here and well, oh my God, we need market help more than ever these days.

2:01Chris, happy Thursday. How are you doing today? Doing very well, thank you. Yes, it's an ugly day, ugly day in the markets. So on days like today, I generally just like to zoom out and look at things from the most global perspective possible because that's where you kind of get the real signal in situations like this. Like it's easy to get caught up in the noise and follow the day to day and just get wrapped up and, you know, you end up nervous and not sleeping at night because you're just so like freaked out about what's going on on a day-to-day level. But when you zoom out and kind of just look at things from a broader perspective, see what the charts are saying, things actually aren't quite that bad.

2:39So that's what I'm going to focus on. Yeah, absolutely. And glad to have you back. We normally, of course, you know, we're here on Thursday. We're normally here on Wednesdays and we'll be back again next Wednesday, of course. But Chris, before we dive into some charts and look at a whole bunch of items that we were talking about. Why don't we just, why don't we get a brief reaction, you know, your quick take on what happened in yesterday's Fed meeting with Jerome Powell? So, yeah, it was a bit mixed. I mean, if you were watching, you saw too. We got the rate cut that everybody knew was going to happen.

3:11So that was nice. That was obviously expected. That was already priced in. Not a big surprise there. So really what everybody was looking for was the tone of the press conference as per usual and just, you know, how he saw the rest of the year playing out. He did announce that they are going to be ending QT in December, which is also positive. We were looking for that. I think a lot of people were maybe hoping that he was going to say starting now, you know, or starting in November or whatever. So that was a little bit of a disappointment. And then the bigger disappointment came when basically he said, we're not sure if we're actually going to do a rate cut in December or not.

3:48It remains to be seen. He kind of put it down to more like a 50-50 take on that. And so it was interesting to look and see how Polymarket reacted to that. And they actually, you know, initially they were pricing in effectively, you know, a 90 or an 80, 90 % chance that we would get a rate cut in December, a 25 basis point rate cut. That dropped quite a bit down to 69%, but then it's ticked back up to 70%. So Polymarket is still betting, you know, at a 70 % clip that we will see a rate cut in December. My gut says we probably will too. You could argue that he was just saying this to, I guess, sort of temper the exuberance that we're seeing in the stock market and things like that, because, you know, the actual equities markets are getting a little bit overheated, you could say, particularly in the AI sector and the tech sector and things like that.

4:39So, you know, maybe he just wanted to kind of slow things down a bit in terms of expectations. But as far as I can tell, you know, generally, the betting markets still think that we will see a rate cut. I personally think we will see a rate cut. And I think that, you know, that combined with which we'll get into maybe some of the stuff going on with the trade dispute with China seems to be resolving itself. And I think that overall, things are generally going to start picking back up, you know, come next month, which is next week, basically. So I'm optimistic going forward. Oh, all right. Let's stay optimistic.

5:13That's definitely the best thing we can do. So why don't we start diving into it and see maybe if we have reason to be optimistic in the chart. So why don't you take us through what you got for us today? So I want to start with Bitcoin. And again, I said I was going to focus on the monthly. And so here's Bitcoin on the monthly timeframe. A couple of things jump out to me. One is green line, which is the 10-month moving average that we've essentially held really for the entire duration of this four-year cycle that we call it, you know, that started back in January of 2023. And, you know, we kind of touched it here at support.

5:49We wicked down below it here last summer, but we ultimately held it as support in terms of the candle body closes. Same thing with, in April of earlier this year. We also wicked down below it, but ultimately never closed below it and held it as support. And then here we are now. So we've actually wicked not even all the way down to the level yet. There's still a little bit of a gap there. And the candle body itself is still a fair bit above it. So I like what I'm seeing there structurally. I think that this, you know, it's obviously ugly. I know our patience is being tested because we've gone sideways for so long now.

6:26But we're not technically like rolling over yet, even though the moving average itself has, you know, slowed its trajectory somewhat. You know, we're still well above it. We're still holding above it. And then we have this sort of horizontal channel that I've drawn these lines in. And we're holding really within that as well. I mean, yes, we have wicked down below it, but we haven't closed below it. And we're holding this steady. And then if we look at this on like a, I have this kind of log channel of the same Bitcoin chart on the monthly time frame. You can see here, we touched the bottom of the channel here.

6:59We kind of wicked down to the channel here. Again, wicked down to it here. We're at the bottom of the channel right now, holding support. We have not closed below it. Tomorrow is the monthly close. So I think as long as we can stay steady right here, things look good. And really kind of the bottom line, the question we all need to ask ourselves with all of this is, it's basically either this is the bottom of this correction right now, and we're going to bounce off of here and run back up, or this is the beginning of the end and the cycle is over. And I don't think anybody, well, some people think that, but really the macro doesn't say that.

7:32The macro is nowhere close to saying that. And I just, you know, the circumstance, the macro circumstances are nothing like what they were back in these previous four-year cycle peaks, back here and then back in 2017. You know, the Fed was talking about, you know, raising rates at that point and everything was wildly overheated and overextended and parabolic. And this is not even remotely close to parabolic. The Fed is still talking about cutting rates. The Fed is still actively cutting rates. They're talking about ending QT, not engaging in QT. So again, it's all very much the opposite of what was going on in those previous peaks.

8:10So I just can't make a case for this being the top and it's all over when the macro is set to improve for the foreseeable future, for the next whatever year or whatever that means. So that's kind of where I'm at. And so my base case, my highest probability scenario is that we bounce from here and go back up. I'm not saying it's going to rocket up to the top of this channel necessarily in the next two months, but I just don't see us going rolling over and this being sort of the top and that's it. And, you know, we all go home. It just doesn't make sense, especially with stocks running, especially with, you know, everything going on in the AI sector.

8:47That's not going to be slowing down anytime soon. It just makes no sense. So that's where we're at as far as Bitcoin. And generally, a lot of the other top 10 alts look pretty good on the monthly as well. I think once you start to get out of the top 10, it starts to get very risky at this point, at least in the moment. But the top 10 still looks pretty good, I would say. And we can get into those here if we want to and look at stuff as well. Yeah, and I think kind of what you were saying here, I think this just adds more weight to the thesis that we've been hearing on Real Vision, especially coming from Rall and Julian of an extended cycle, right?

9:23You know, we're kind of coming up to the end of the year, but the macro and what Jerome Powell is saying about ending QT, just super bullish, right? So I think the wins tell us one thing, even though our bags and the chart right now is down overall. Yeah, Chris, why don't we hop into maybe some majors that you think are holding up particularly well or that you would feel comfortable getting into right now or just holding if you have already. Real quick, before we get into that, one of the things I want to talk about that I think is really contributing to the volatility and contributing to the wonky price section is the liquidity environment right now, just real quick.

10:03And so this yellow line represents just global M2. And we can see Bitcoin has been tracking with it. I mean, really, you know, to a T since all the way back in March. And even just right now, you know, we had a spike up in liquidity, a spike up in Bitcoin, immediate drop in liquidity, drop in Bitcoin. And then this has been kind of rolling over. And so too is Bitcoin in this interim. And what we're seeing is because the liquidity environment is considerably tighter right now and order books are very thin, it doesn't take much in terms of like news events to really move the needle and make things super volatile.

10:35And so I think we're going to continue to see that until this chart rolls back up to the upside. And that's kind of what we're waiting for. And that's, you know, rate cuts will help with that. and, you know, ending QT will help with that. So like, it's going to be a minute maybe. I mean, hopefully it might happen in the next week or two, but I think, you know, I won't be surprised if this takes a minute to kind of roll back up. And I think, you know, based on this, we're likely to see Bitcoin and everything follow along with it. Now, with that said, let's look at some of the other majors. Real quick, let's see, Solana, we'll start with ETH.

11:10ETH also looks good on the monthly timeframe. you know, it's 10 and 20 are all the way way down here. Like it's not even close to it, whereas Bitcoin was basically butted up right against these. So it's holding up nicely. It's above its bull market support band. Structurally, it actually looks better than Bitcoin, honestly, in this moment. And then Solana, kind of the same thing. It's also, it bounced nicely off its 10 and 20 where it wicked down below and is, you know, holding this upper horizontal range nicely. It wicked below it, but the candle body is above it on the monthly. So that looks good.

11:44Other big ones in the top 10, Tron had a bit of a wobble, but it's still way above its 10-month moving average. Same thing with B &B. B &B has got a green candle this month. I mean, it's just like it's totally like completely ignoring this downturn as if it didn't even happen. XRP, a little bit of a wobble, but its body is actually below the 10-week or 10-month rather. But yeah, I mean, generally things look good. I wanted to touch on hype real quickly, too, because last I looked, yeah, hype actually, despite this massive, massive green wick down or wick down, it's still green on the month. It's still posting a green month, albeit just barely.

12:22I mean, it's less than 1%, but it's technically up on the month, which is pretty impressive given how poorly most things are doing. So, you know, I think hype is definitely in that conversation as well. So, yes, the top 10 is doing well. The rest not faring nearly as well. Many things are down double digits today. Most things are down double digits today on my watch list. And, you know, they're struggling. Well said. Why don't we, before we maybe take some questions, why don't we also take a quick look at SWE while we're on it? Yes. It's sort of right at its, it's funny. I drew this support line back here based on this previous dip and monthly candle closes.

13:05And we're right down right at the same support level. So again, hopefully it's like I, when I said earlier, either this is the bottom or this is the beginning of the end. Hopefully this is the bottom and it's going to bounce at the same level that it bounced previously earlier back in March, you know, and, and, and bounces from here, but it is again, right at the level also much uglier and that it's well down below both it's 10 and it's 20 month moving averages. So not a good look for SWE from a technical standpoint, but maybe we, you know, maybe it bounces at the bottom of this channel like it did before.

13:40yeah we're definitely at key support levels here across the board um but let's you know like you said we got to bounce off of this and not it's not the beginning of the end there and also just adds to what you were saying before you know the the top anything outside of the top 10 is going to be uh pretty risky and sweet while you know it has been a favorite of the of our community it's uh it's definitely risky in the moment um but also interesting that hype uh while outside of the top 10 has been holding up well this month. Yeah. All right, Chris, let's hop into some questions, shall we? Sure, sure.

14:17So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. First question comes from Sebastian on the platform. got to take them in the order that we get them. So Chris, what do you think about Bitcoin dominance turning into green on the weekly and ETH, Bitcoin and SolUSD going into red on the weekly while altcoins continue to decline? So if altcoins lag three months after Bitcoin or nine months after gold, will they just start outperforming in Q2 of 2026?

15:00And to add to that, taking into account the government shutdown might prolong everything. Wouldn't Bitcoin be a safe haven in that case? What are your thoughts on that, Chris? So to answer the first part of your question, and I've talked about this on recent shows, I go back to the dominance seasonality. And so on this left side, we've got this is Bitcoin seasonality. And I've been talking about this really since the beginning of this month, that this is actually in terms of Bitcoin dominance, October is its strongest month overall historically. And so I was prepared for Bitcoin to outperform the rest of the market this month.

15:36And it, in fact, did. Though, what was its average percent? 5 % is its average. And it's at 1.3 % right now on the month. So it underperformed its average, but it still did gain ground this month. Meanwhile, if we look at altcoin dominance in the form of others.d, we can see October is typically a red month, but then November and December are green months. And so I expect, you know, I expected this to happen as it has thus far. And based on historical seasonality, we can, you know, I guess, operate on the assumption that Bitcoin dominance should fade starting next month and alts should should run because historically they have.

16:23So that's what I'm going on as far as that goes. And then what was the other the second half of the question? The other if the government shutdown prolongs, does that mean would you consider Bitcoin as a safe haven asset? Yeah, yes. I mean, of course, I definitely would, though I I don't think that the shutdown is going to last a whole lot longer. But yes, I mean, it's already proven to be that. And and every time we get sort of negative news about about the shutdown, it seems to help Bitcoin's case along the way. So yeah, definitely. Yes, is the simple answer there. Awesome. Thank you for the question, Sebastian.

17:01All right, next question comes from Benedict Michel on the platform. Chris, you mentioned a week or two ago that you weren't that bothered with Bitcoin being around$108 ,000 so long as it wasn't still there in, say, two weeks' time. Are you more concerned now, especially as crypto keeps falling while stocks are at all-time highs? I don't know if concerned is the right word. You could say maybe just a little bit annoyed. And again, the reason I say that is because I think we're still seeing a lot of selling pressure from Bitcoin whales that continues to remain the case. And ETF inflows have waned.

17:45They're not necessarily upside down, but they're very just kind of neutral. So I think it's just a product of like I've like I've kind of been saying, it's a product of the low liquidity environment. It's a product of just the general market uncertainty with, you know, with the tariffs, with China, with the Fed, you know, the Fed and everything that's going on there. So I still am optimistic. I mean, again, I keep I keep saying this, but it either comes back to either this is the bottom or this is the beginning of the end. And I don't think it's the beginning of the end. I can't make a case for that.

18:18And so I, as annoyed as I am for Bitcoin and the rest of crypto being just ugly right now, I just don't see it rolling over. I mean, sure, of course, anything can happen, but the highest probability scenario is that we bounce from here and that, you know, we have a better, the remainder of Q2 still is, I think, upwards. Now, whether that means we rip up again, I don't know. But I mean, I've heard some people saying it's going to be at 150 ,000 by the end of the year. I think that's a stretch, honestly. But I do think it will be higher than it is today. So yeah. And I still think that we're going to push into Q1, Q2, and so on.

18:58So I remain optimistic. All right. Thank you, Benedict, for the question. All right. Ian Dunn has a question for you. Well, first of all, this is something that we actually haven't really talked about very often on the show here. But Chris, how familiar are you with fan tokens and what do you think about them in general? And then Ian cites OG being the best fan token or seeming to be the best fan token. um well to be honest ian i am not familiar with them at all but let's take a look at the og chart um let's see what we can glean from that so this is uh well i've just i'm on the monthly so i started it on the monthly um interesting chart in that the very very uh a lot of wicks here the wicks are jumping out at me big time so i'm seeing uh very low this tells me there's not a lot of uh not a lot of depth, not a lot of liquidity in this asset, at least on Binance, but it should be on, if it's going to be anywhere, it would be on Binance.

20:07So I don't know. I mean, clearly it had a big month in August, another big month in September, and then October, it's corrected a bit. But the volume, it's funny, if you look at the volume historically, it hasn't necessarily exceeded any of these previous months. Even with this big massive candle here, it was on relatively low volume. I mean, even average volume, you could say. And then the subsequent volume has been even less. So it's pretty hard to glean much insight looking at it from a technical standpoint. This chart is just, it's too sideways, it's too choppy, and the wicks are too big to really get a sense of what the market is wanting to do with this asset.

20:48So I don't know. I can't, I would struggle to make a case for investing in this because to me, it would just be too unpredictable. I can't, you know, I can't glean any insight from the technicals on this chart, essentially. Right. Yeah, definitely nothing more than lunch money if you're interested in a fan token, as evidenced by this chart with these crazy wicks. Yeah, yeah. All right. Next question comes from Guy. He wants to get an update on SPX. And of course, we know with SPX, there is no chart. But Chris, how are you feeling about SPX in the current environment or, or is it like the, you know, is it, are we finding the bottom?

21:31Are we going to die or are we going to, is this the end or are we going to, what are you thinking? I don't know. I mean, it's tricky with us. I still remain bullish on SPX overall. I still think the sentiment is strong. I still see lots of, uh, you know, just anecdotal evidence of, of people getting out on the streets and, and preaching it. I, you know, the thing with SPX to keep coming back to is I've never seen any other altcoin out there, or I'm sorry, meme coin rather, where people are making their own t-shirts, making their own flyers, writing their own books, going out on the street and talking about it, you know, passing out information, building their own websites even, you know, and it's not like there's a centralized entity that's doing this.

22:10It's the community. Each one of these people are taking it upon themselves to go out and create this merchandise, you know, make their own sticker packs and go out and stick them everywhere, you know, putting flyers up on billboards and stuff like that, find me any other meme where anybody has done that. And that's what I keep coming back to. And this just tells me that like, this has the, the grassroots just sort of groundswell that, that is going to need going to be needed to, to, you know, continue to pump this asset going forward. And I think the fact that it hasn't really dropped that much, you know, like we're still seeing, like, if you go and look at like the, the holder scan and, and, and the specs, no sort of OG whales are selling their positions.

22:49You know, no whale has ever sold a majority share of any of their position. And just the diamond handedness of this community still, I think, remains strong. And it's like, yes, everything is down right now across the board. But I, you know, I'm just not seeing like the rapid sort of sell-off rollover that we would see with, you know, most other memes, honestly. and so I yeah I remain I remain positive about it and I think that you know right now with just everything down you're gonna of course you're gonna see some short-term holders and some traders you know moving the prices more than maybe you'd like to see but again it's not really about that I think you know I think the goal remains the goal and I you know it's still in effect I mean go back and watch this the video that Mirad put out it was like two weeks ago you know how to find the next 100x altcoin and he laid out a 45 minute case for why spx uh it is and remains the the best you know meme out there and and everything he said in that video still holds true today regardless of what the price is showing you so nothing has changed on that front and uh i remain confident very well said one thing i you know always loved about spx is it has such a simple yet very memeable goal, which is, of course, flipping the S &P 500.

24:09So anyone that is in crypto or has any inkling of knowledge of finance understands what the S &P is and understands also how hilarious that goal is to flip the S &P 500. So it is a noble cause. So we're rooting for SPX here. All right, Chris, we're up on time for today. So I wanted to throw it to you. We'll be back, of course, on Monday for our live show in Discord. But until then, what do you want to leave us with? Or what are some thoughts we should think about going into the weekend until we see you on Monday again? I mean, just I know it sucks right now. But just don't get wrapped up in the day-to-day.

24:52I mean, as always, when things are ugly, you just need to just zoom out and consider what's driving all of these markets right now. Think about the macro. don't just like look at today's price action and think that, oh, it's down. That means, you know, everything's dead. And don't, I think, don't get so hung up on this four-year cycle narrative either. I know it's easy too, but we know there's only like two or three data points. It's hard to make such an argument for that when it's like, yes, technically it happened three times, but that doesn't mean that it's going to happen exactly this time, every time going forward.

25:26There's lots of reasons why it happened the way it did in the past. And none of those reasons are sort of in effect now, like I said. So not that the four-year cycle is a myth or whatever. It happened the way it happened. And I get it. But just we're seeing the whole economy shift across the board. It's not just crypto. And crypto is just riding that wave with everything else. And so you can't just say, oh, the economy is going to keep running for another year. But crypto, the four-year cycle is peaked and it's over. Like that doesn't make any sense. So just, again, zoom out. consider all of the information.

25:58That's why we're here at Real Vision. That's why we watch all of these amazing shows and all these amazing guests and experts, economic experts, amazing panel discussions, people who know a lot more than we do, frankly. And everything that I'm seeing from everybody that I watch, like nobody thinks that it's over, literally nobody. So there you go. There you go, Chris. It's been a pleasure as always. Thanks again. and everyone thank you for tuning in we'll be back of course on monday remember as always don't fuck this up until then we'll see you all next week take care everyone you obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end but listen don't forget to go to realvision.com forward slash join and grab a free membership it's an incredible community packed with alpha great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future so get started now, go to realvision.com forward slash join.