Unlocking the AI Megatrend with Beth Kindig and Jordi Visser

31 Mar 2024 · 1 h 9 min

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Podcast Notes: Unlocking the AI Megatrend with Beth Kindig and Jordi Visser

Podcast Overview Title: Unlocking the AI Megatrend Host: Jordi Visser, former CIO and chairman of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers Guest: Beth Kindig, CEO and lead tech analyst at the I/O Fund Theme: The transformative impact of AI on the economy and investment strategies.

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Key Themes and Discussions

The Rise of AI

  • Transformational Impact: AI is identified as a major technological, economic, and societal shift with potential implications on how we live and invest.
  • Investment Strategies: Investors are encouraged to explore AI opportunities, particularly in companies that can capitalize on this megatrend.

Market Insights from Beth Kindig

  • Early Advocacy: Beth has been analyzing AI since 2010, particularly focusing on Nvidia and its potential.
  • Nvidia's Growth:
  • Predicted Nvidia would surpass Apple in market value back in 2021.
  • Despite a sell-off in 2022, Beth maintained a bullish outlook on Nvidia due to its AI applications, not just gaming or crypto mining.

Economic Implications of AI

  • GDP Impact Estimates:
  • AI's contribution to GDP is projected to be between $15 trillion and $25 trillion, significantly higher than mobile technology's previous impacts.
  • Addressable Market: The discussion centers on how AI is solving clear problems for enterprises, thereby driving costs down and increasing productivity.

Future of Tech Investments

  • Semiconductors as Key Players:
  • Semiconductors are projected to represent 50% of the AI market, up from 20-30% in the mobile market.
  • Companies like Nvidia are expected to lead due to their advanced data processing capabilities.
  • Cloud Sector Concerns:
  • A shift away from cloud investments is advised due to the saturated market and potential for consolidation.
  • Beth notes that only strong AI-integrated cloud companies will survive this transition.

AI and Job Disruption

  • Job Market Transformation:
  • AI is projected to displace many jobs, yet it is also expected to create new opportunities, especially in decentralized systems.
  • Dystopian vs. Utopian Perspectives:
  • There is a concern regarding the concentration of power in big tech and its implications for workers and society.

Crypto and Decentralization

  • AI's Relationship with Crypto:
  • The hosts discuss the potential for cryptocurrency to decentralize AI, although currently, no specific crypto projects stand out.

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Key Takeaways

  • AI as a Fundamental Growth Driver: The economic impact of AI is projected to be unprecedented, potentially tripling or quadrupling past tech impacts.
  • Investment in Semiconductors: Companies like Nvidia are seen as essential players in the AI landscape due to their unique capabilities in data processing.
  • Caution in Cloud Investments: A significant portion of cloud companies may not survive the transition to AI-focused business models; careful selection is crucial.
  • Broader Implications on Society: The hosts express concern over job displacement due to AI and emphasize the need for a balance between innovation and societal well-being.

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Conclusion The podcast presents a compelling case for the continued relevance of AI in shaping the future of technology and investing. Both Beth Kindig and Jordi Visser provide insightful analyses on how to navigate this transformative landscape, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and foresight in investment strategies.

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Additional Resources

  • I/O Fund Newsletters: Available at [Real Vision Marketplace](http://www.realvision.com/beth).
  • Kraken Pro: An advanced trading platform for experienced traders, detailed at [Kraken Pro](www.realvision.com/krakenpro).

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This structured approach to the podcast content allows for easier navigation and understanding of the complexities discussed, making it a valuable tool for both novice and seasoned investors interested in the AI megatrend.

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Transcript

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0:56Hey, everybody. Welcome to today's installment of How to Un-Fuck Your Future. Last week, we talked about all the ways that we're fucked, quite frankly. But this week, it's been nice respite to hear about all the solutions. Yesterday, Rao was talking to Yatsu about the continuing growth of play-to-earn gaming, as well as basic equity versus universal basic income. If you didn't listen to that conversation after this one, you should really check it out. Today's discussion is all about tech investment. But what I think is really intriguing here, you're not just going to hear a conversation of people saying, buy tech, get these high valuations.

1:31It's a much more nuanced picture. And to have that discussion, we've got Jordy Visser with us, a Real Vision favorite, former CIO and president of West Multi-Strategy, advisor and lead contributor to In the Search of Green Marbles podcast. And Jordi's going to be talking to Beth Kindig, CEO and lead tech analyst at the IO Fund. You guys know Beth from that famous conversation she had with me calling NVIDIA in January of 2023, up just about 468 % from then to today. And of course, if you want more of Beth's work, you can always check her out at the Real Vision Marketplace, realvision.com slash Beth.

2:08Great deal on her work there. And the people that we talk to in our community just love what they get from there. So with that, Jordi, I hand it over to you to unfuck our future, please. Thanks, Samuel. First of all, I just want to say this is this is an interesting situation for me. And I'm going to just going to introduce Beth in a unique way. First of all, when you're talking about the future, anytime you're talking about the future is someone who spends his entire time trying to get a sense as to places where the future, I think, will happen will be different than where the majority of people think, which I think is what a lot of investing is about.

2:45I gather most of my information from other people. I listen to lots of various people on a given topic. And one of the things that's the most important for me is sourcing people who have different views than I do. And I came across Beth probably two months ago. Someone recommended me to listen to the podcast she did with Raul or the interview she did with Raul, specifically on AI with a little bit on crypto, which is a lot of what we're going to talk about today. And there's a lot of places in there where I was very strongly disagreeing in terms of some of the things she was saying. But over time, as I've read more of it and I've spent time, she's done what I try to find for anyone.

3:30And so I highly recommend you guys spend time on this. She is a good thought provoker. She took my views. She didn't alter them completely. But I think there's a few nuances within my views on AI and crypto and centralization, which we'll get into today. So I highly recommend spending time listening to Beth. So welcome, Beth. This is our first time together. But I wanted to throw some positive words your way to start out. Thanks, Jordy. Yeah, very kind of you to introduce me. So let's jump right into it. So you have written about for a long time artificial intelligence. Can you just remind everyone how important it is and really the amount of time you've been writing about it?

4:15Because you were one of the early people to spend time on highlighting that it was starting now. Yes. And so, you know, 2010, 2011, I was in Silicon Valley, basically doing in-depth work to help technologists determine out of 2000 ad products or 70 cybersecurity products, which is the one that deserves an eight figure or nine figure partnership. I found that this was really needed. It was suggested to me that I take those skills, which is speaking to people in Silicon Valley who are deep into tech and explaining tech to a point where they can make a big decision around this vast competitive landscape.

4:57Clearly, if I can do that, maybe you can go talk to finance people in New York about tech would be much easier and probably more needed. Uh, so instantly I started to garner some attention around my unique analysis because, uh, what I'm always doing is connecting the dots in a, in the competitive landscape, meaning, uh, whether investors realize it or not, uh, you're choosing one out of many, many companies in order to say, this one's going to be the winner. If you have a cybersecurity company in your portfolio, you're choosing one out of 70. That's very hard to do. So what I do is I make that process very, very easy, as easy as possible.

5:39And so the minute I started writing in 2018 on the free, just entirely free to see how it would go, I started talking about why NVIDIA would have a moat based on the data center, GPU driven data center. its AI angle, including versus a company like Xilinx, which has now been acquired by AMD. So I was so far back on this that you probably don't even recognize some of the AI companies because they were beginning to be acquired. But Xilinx is one company that was up against NVIDIA, now owned by AMD. And I was comparing GPUs versus field programmable chips and ASICs, basically. And I was saying in this competitive landscape, GPUs are going to be where it's at.

6:26And then I started talking about things like Microsoft Azure and why Azure would blow Google Cloud out of the water and nip at the heels of AWS. And this was when Microsoft was selling off and was not known as a cloud infrastructure as a service company. So all of that started to really gel. And since 2018, I've written about NVIDIA's AI thesis over 25 times, specifically AI. I said in 2021 that NVIDIA would surpass Apple to become the world's most valuable company. And so you have to go back in time. But in 2022, this company, NVIDIA, sold off 60%. People thought it was over when Ethereum merged to proof of stake.

7:09And there was a big gaming miss. There was a massive$2.5 billion gaming miss. fortunately i was recorded on live news fox business news i appear there frequently with charles payne as well as others saying this is a buy it's not about gaming it's not about crypto mining this is about ai and like you know so so the good news is that there was definitely uh you know a nice track record there and uh just giving you some background as to why why i was able to do that and why I think my firm will continue to be able to find the right AI choices as we move forward to it. NVIDIA clearly big leader, undeniable today, but we think this has a long runway and we're prepared to find more winners.

7:57Can you add to that discussion? So from a credibility basis, you've been talking about this as early as anyone and the impact that it would have. And before I kind of shift into comparing it to mobile, since you were a part of that time period too in Silicon Valley, can you just kind of give people your views on the top-down impact that AI is going to have on the economy for corporations, just so people can kind of put into context how big this is, maybe even relative to mobile from a top-down basis before we get into the investment cycle? Yes. And I think that's a great question because it's one thing to pick a a great product and to analyze the product, which I think is absolutely first and foremost, how to choose great tech stocks.

8:39But you have to look at total addressable market. You have to look at product market fit. And those are those things like for AI, what kind of impact is it going to have on GDP? I've seen the 15 trillion, but McKinsey and others are now raising it to a 25 trillion impact on GDP. You can assume mobile is three to four trillion, maybe four to five, depending on how you chop up smartphones, applications, app stores, things like that, right around, let's just give it the highest estimate of 5 trillion. We're looking at 3x minimum, 5x right now. And these estimates keep getting raised. So the 15 trillion was maybe two years ago.

9:24And the 25 trillion has been a revision. So this is the impact GDP. And that's something we've never seen before in my lifetime and previous generation, next generation. So when you, when you take that kind of product market fit is, is the best way I would describe it. Meaning you are solving clear problems to have that kind of an impact on GDP, which would be productivity. Um, and then you match it with the right product. What you have is this hockey stick explosive growth. Um, and so people are really trying to wrap their heads around this and say the short sellers, I guess, would be the easiest ones to pick on.

10:04And they're saying, you know, NVIDIA is too popular now. It's got to end eventually. Look at this company up 400 or more percent. But what they're not understanding is that that's nothing compared to the impact these GPUs are going to have on GDP now and into the foreseeable future. So that's the piece, I think, that combination, that merging of product with addressable market and product market fit, which macro people will say in these GDP numbers. For me, it's really about, you know, solving enough problems that it's driving down those costs for enterprises, which is basically just talking about it in two different ways.

10:48that is something to just sit up in your chair and really pay attention and to not fight the trend. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing. Kraken Pro is the powerful crypto platform for experienced traders who demand the best. With advanced charts, real-time market analytics, and lightning-fast trade execution, Kraken Pro empowers you to trade your way. Customize your setup and make every pixel count by rearranging and stacking trading modules in a way that makes sense to you.

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12:51Yeah, and so people can put some of those numbers into context. Whether it's$15 trillion or$25 trillion, you're doing that in an economy that right now has a size of between$25 and$30 trillion. So you're talking about a massive impact. And whether it's through 2040 or 2050, I think where Beth and I right off the bat are on the same page is this is a macro trend that is going to dominate our world going forward much more than mobile. And it's really hard for anyone to think, you know, in 2007, before the iPhone was launched, what our lives were like without having that gadget. So now we're talking fast forward the same amount of time.

13:30And the reason interviews or podcasts like this to me are so important is because when the macro lines up with some of the micro stories, which you're seeing now, if we increase the economy by, say,$15 trillion, well, there's a relationship between the market cap of public companies historically and GDP. And so what you're talking about is an expansion in public companies. And that means investing. You're going to find opportunities. And right now, we're looking like there's a bull market without having the traditional cycle of the past. And I think that's why these types of conversations are so important.

14:03And I think on the mobile side, Beth, since you used it as a comparison of how much bigger or how much more important this could be, could you kind of take everyone through? Because you said something interesting on a brief prep call we did the other day. And this was the most important thought-provoking moment for me on this comment about we went from 2 million apps to eventually 10 apps. And the reason that's so important in the context now, most people are worried that this has gone too far too fast because valuations are clearly expanding to levels and no one knows what the proper valuation is for NVIDIA.

14:40But when you have a mega trend that's going so fast, the market does discount a lot of the future. But if that just continues to go parabolic, then the valuations, as we learned from 2009 on, can stay high for a long time. So can you take everyone on a comparison and using that 2 million apps to 10 apps for the prior decade? Yes. And I think what I'm encouraging people to realize is that even if we have a wave of innovation from the private markets, that can be quite exciting. And I would say mobile is more democratized hands down than AI, meaning other than software programmer costs, you're coding.

15:18I mean, it's free. AI has GPUs and power and other costs inherent to training a model that weren't present for mobile. So anyways, backing up, a wave of innovation such as mobile will often put on the market 2 million apps. But in the long run, fast forward 10 years, most people use about 10. I'll never forget the gaming boom. Uh, for me, that was an exciting time because we were, you know, just constant mobile events everywhere. I would go into two to three events a day. Uh, it was very, very exciting time. And many of those gaming companies, you know, are not very successful today. Either they close their doors or they're private.

16:07They had to be brought back private, things like that. Zynga, maybe the poster child for that, but there's some out of Japan and, um, Europe and whatnot. And so to watch that popularity of having hundreds of millions of users that faded is a warning sign that I like to talk to public investors about because it's just simply a hype cycle, which is that you'll go through a lot of innovation that is absolutely necessary. You'll get lots of exciting apps, but then over time, the hype fades on the user side and those businesses don't last. this is present the the the public markets like to call it the dot-com boom and bust it's happened with every every area of tech in all facets I you know I'm talking about gaming right now because it's so niche and I you know and of course it had a boom and a bust mobile had a boom and a bust and you may not have noticed because we have a few big winners meta google apple you may not I've realized that there's, you know, 99 % went out of business.

17:16A lot of that was in the private markets. But you can expect something similar to happen with AI as what we've seen with mobile. And I would even say maybe at a higher rate. Well, that's one of the, this is the reason I said this was a thought provoking moment for me is I've written and said many, many times that for me, and I still believe this, but this is where you changed kind of my view in one sense, which I'll ask you to expand upon. I do believe smaller businesses are going to have the long-term advantage from AI, mainly because what we did see in the prior decade is that you were able to grow a business without debt, meaning you could actually grow in a different way than you had in the industrial revolution.

18:01So to me, this was the inflection point to where the digital economy took over to a much greater degree than it already had. And once that got to the point that it is now, we're losing business cycles. And for me, we're going to have a lot of failures of businesses because interest rates are high, but also because the most talented people are going to use AI and realize that this expansion of ideas will not only need less debt, but it also need less people because you can start a business and grow it without the same amount of employee growth that you used to have in the past. And to me, that's a very big advantage in the same way that you didn't have debt where you didn't need to expand to other locations the same way.

18:43So you had this virtual world. So this is just the next stage for me of smaller businesses. But your point is what got me thinking that, okay, we could both be right, meaning it could be another 10 years before small businesses actually catch up. And what you're saying is at a time when the stock market is very narrow in terms of participation, your argument, which I hear, and it may last for longer, I think that the NVIDIAs, the Googles, the Metas, they may have a huge advantage here, Microsoft, Salesforce, in terms of the rollout and actually monetizing AI for the near term. So the big question for me to you is, how long do you think this concentration can last?

19:26And do you think it'll last even longer than I believe? Yes. So I think we're seeing evidence of it right now. the Mag7, what do they have that other companies don't have? Well, Balmer said developers, developers, developers, and I think AI will be data sets, data sets, data sets. So there's the cost of trading a model that is very different from the democratization of mobile, which I would say is one of the most democratized innovations, again, due to the fact that you're basically paying for a programmer's time. If you happen to be a programmer or have a couple of friends that are programmers.

20:02You can do it for very little cost, where this just isn't the reality. It was, you know, chat GPT has said it's about$4 million in product cost, let alone programmers and AI engineers. So we're already starting to see this evidence that something about having large proprietary data sets is what sets you apart. And so now we have an issue where if you're a startup or a small company, do you even have the data set in order to train these models? A lot of people have followed Tesla for a long time. What are the chances that Tesla would ever give away the data set that their fleet has created and generated over the last, you know, however many years, they're going to protect that with everything they have, not only because of the costs that it required to, to, to create that data set, but because it's really, you know, their secret sauce.

20:58It's Google's secret sauce. They clearly have a lot of money for R &D. These companies have big CapEx budgets. But to me, it comes down to that proprietary data set. And I think we are seeing evidence that big tech will only get bigger. I think that this is actually good news for public investors. Rarely, I would say that rarely have we seen such a big move from what was already a large market cap, NVIDIA. I would look forward to that happening more. This is great news for public investors because we've never had the opportunity to get in on these big power moves that these trends can generate to this extent, considering that most of these companies, in my opinion, that will dominate in AI are already public instead of having a mix of public and private that then you wait for that private company to go public, you know, insiders cash in, et cetera.

21:59So in this case, if you can find those public companies that are going to benefit, of course, there's also those who have smaller data sets that will improve their own platforms. Salesforce is a great example. They don't have the data set that Google has, but they have a big enough data set to improve their process through Einstein, design, help increase productivity across sales and marketing teams. So we will certainly see those cases too. I don't own Salesforce, but I'm just using them as an example, since most people understand that company well. You'll certainly see those as well. And that's what I mean about this great opportunity for public investors is that a lot of these companies with these proprietary data sets are already public.

22:42So now you just have to pick the one out of the 70 cybersecurity or some of those would be private, but you have to pick one out of a couple dozen, or you have to pick one out of a couple dozen productivity or software platforms or data platforms. And that piece is exciting to me. And it's exciting to me that we've had a public company go up 400 % off this trend, because usually that was only happening in the private markets at this stage, very nascent. AI just started and the public investors get to participate. It's awesome. And I think for me, in listening to what you said, the way that I've now incorporated this into the way that I think, for spending my time on recessions or market corrections, I'm always looking for leading economic indicators, leading indicators in the market, things like breadth for the market.

23:38And while breadth has been just, it just has not been good for the last 15 months, effectively what you're saying and what I'm starting to build in more to my views is if those companies do have the advantage, you need to start focusing on them a lot more for an indication that maybe the market's running out of steam. Just because if it's being driven by AI, I do believe that companies see a change sooner than others. So if NVIDIA all of a sudden has an earnings report where they disappoint or something changes and you have the same thing happening for Meta and you have it happening for Microsoft and it's not about cost cutting anymore, those may be because when you get this narrow, it becomes easier to see signs.

24:23So I'm going to take what you said there and that's the way I'm going to incorporate it. I've changed some of my models to say those names are going to be more important. Can you, speaking of the breath, I think a great place to go. You were early on NVIDIA. It's obviously had a huge move. Outside of NVIDIA, are there other semis in particular that you like? And then outside of semiconductors, are there other parts of technology sectors or industries that you think will eventually benefit more from artificial intelligence as we move forward in this trend? Yeah, those are great questions. when it comes to the narrowness of the bull cycle, I will say we're almost always in a neutral stance.

25:04We were with Real Vision VIP members or I was back in January and I was saying, when you look at Microsoft's chart, this thing looks like it put in a major top and in February so far, Microsoft has, and we own Microsoft. So we're very neutral, meaning that when we look at a company like NVIDIA or Microsoft or whatever it might be, we continually evaluate if it's cheap enough. And we're not always ultra bulls. We use risk management first and foremost. Tech portfolios make a big mistake by letting the excitement and the bull story take over. Usually those bull stories will take care of themselves and you've got to know when to apply the brakes.

25:56And that's the piece that I think separates our firm from others. And so I do want to throw in there that candidly on our webinars with our premium members, we have been saying that this is concerning to us because despite the phenomenal gains that, you know, NVIDIA, real revenue growth here that the company has put up, it's not broad enough to protect. you know, tech as a sector. So we're looking for ways to use risk management right now. Sometimes that means trimming. I said on Fox, we were trimming super micro pretty heavily. And it's just because risk reward isn't there right now for us on super micro.

26:35So I do want to say with the narrowness of the bull cycle, typically when we're asked about it as a firm, we see it as a concern. But then when you asked, I think you asked about other sectors or other semiconductor companies that you like. Yeah. So I guess I would preface all this and just say get comfortable with semiconductors. They are 50 % of the AI market. That's up from 20 % to 30 % of the mobile market. And they will be, for us, the right way to participate in AI in the near term. We had like 45 % allocation going into 2023 to AI. I want to say 40 % of that was semiconductors. And the other thing that I guess if there's anything to get out of this conversation today, it's that the semiconductors are going to become the AI software players.

27:31Already, NVIDIA, the biggest announcements this past week, in my opinion, are the Omniverse Cloud APIs. Apple is now partnering with NVIDIA on Omniverse for Vision Pro headsets. like since when does Apple partner with somebody on software to attract developers? Like this is a big, this is, if you know, like Apple's history with developers and they're now going to leverage NVIDIA to make sure that they have enough development for that device, it's like, whoa, this is a big moment. And this is across the board that NVIDIA not only has had the opportunity to have these GPUs pre-launch, of course, it's their GPUs.

28:16But they're also just the closest to the problems that need to be solved. So they're building software rapidly to facilitate renting of GPUs in the cloud, to facilitate better development across the board for AI. Broadcom is one that we don't own, but we're looking to own, is because custom silicon is going to be desirable for big tech. So big tech will want to create in-house silicon to whatever extent they can while still probably having to use NVIDIA. It will be a mix. This will help them on application-specific workloads. And Broadcom is the favorite choice for that right now. And going back to software, right now, most of you know they acquired VMware and they're already rapidly accelerating on the software side post-acquisition because what they're doing is they're creating a private cloud environment through VMware's virtual software fabric.

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29:21And they are allowing that data to remain on-premise because it goes back to those data sets for AI. So long-term, Broadcom's got their ring in the game on software as well, including how do you create a virtual cloud environment where you can use your on-prem data. So that piece is really cool to me. You can see, I get pretty excited about this stuff. AMD is going to answer to NVIDIA this year. Let's pony up. Let's see what the pricing power does there. NVIDIA has had no competitor. You could probably go round and round on a good debate on how strong of a design company AMD is. It's completely underestimated.

30:10This company is very strong on design, where Intel maybe not so much. So those are some of the more exciting things. And then to bring it outside of the semiconductors, they've really dominated data cloud, data center AI, and it's going to move to the edge. So edge AI, we're going to see a major upgrade cycle on your smartphones, laptops, computers, because there's only so much AI can do in the data center. Inference has to run close to the user. So more powerful devices, you know, edge network, that piece is, I would call the next phase of AI. and we're starting to get positioned for that. You'll start to hear about it mid 2024 when Qualcomm comes out with an ARM-based PC.

30:55But I think 2025 is really the year for edge AI and we're getting positioned for that now. And then we do hold a cybersecurity company. Cybersecurity is basically a data problem. So there's a natural affinity with cybersecurity and automation. You won't hear the big headlines. Like you will hear Palantir's commercial segment is up however much and their artificial intelligence platform is up X amount. That's not as what the cybersecurity companies will report. In my opinion, it could change, but it's just overall revenue growth because automation is just integrated into every piece of their platform.

31:36So where analysts that are moving very quickly and journalists that are moving very quickly, They need to really quick grab that AI number from the earnings call and put it out. They're not going to be able to quickly grab an AI number from cybersecurity because it's so fully integrated due to it being really a data problem for many years now. It has been solved through automation and AI. And then generative AI is only going to make it easier for people with lower level security skills to work with those products. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

32:17That's great. That's all the, I guess, the optimistic side of ways to play it from what's working or what's attached to AI. Let's just go a little bit of a different direction for a minute here. Because the prior decade, you know, just as an example, for people sitting there, they probably have some investments that AI is going to disrupt as well. And if you were in auto companies coming out of the great financial crisis and you didn't have Tesla, which grew rapidly and all the other auto companies combined just sat there and Amazon dominated the brick and mortars, are there sectors, stocks or companies with inside tech that AI is going to disrupt that people should maybe check their portfolios and reduce positions or completely get rid of?

33:06Yeah, that's a great question. I guess the one area that we've shifted dramatically away from is having a portfolio loaded with cloud. So in 2019, our portfolio was a lot of cloud. It kind of worked out because then COVID happened. But we were in a kind of a boom cycle with cloud. People love, public markets love the annual recurring revenue. and in general, rates were low, very low. So those cash-strapped cloud companies did well with high stock-based compensation, all the above. And the cloud was doing very well. We've shifted entirely. Our choices in cloud, we have one true cloud stock outside of Microsoft, best of breed cloud stock, and it's because it's an edge AI play.

33:59Otherwise, I haven't touched cloud really since we moved toward AI with H100. We knew the H100 was coming out. We wrote about it on the free newsletter in October of 2022. So we were really moving toward AI. And I mean, I ruthlessly cut cloud and got some feedback from it since people were so enamored with cloud. I just said it's a landmine. It's so hard to pick out a good cloud stock at this point because that hype cycle is gone. It's over. So what that means is we'll go through a period of consolidation. The weak will get acquired or go out of business. The strong will move on and the strong have to have an AI play.

34:39So look for maybe 50 % of the cloud stocks on the market today to not be around in 10 years. I don't want to get caught holding that one myself. Not only that, but they're not the best on cash compared to something like ad tech, very cash efficient sector vertical. So that piece is problematic right now. Ultimately, we are very, very selective in cloud. And if you were to tell me which, if you were to ask me which vertical is kind of a hot potato, I would say cloud because of the hype cycle merging with AI, merging with the fact that If there's, you know, the hype cycle means we're going to go through a period of consolidation mixed with weak cash and bottom lines, very few are gap profitable.

35:25And, you know, for everyone watching, I think, you know, if you read history books on innovation, there's always disrupted industries and companies. And I think what Beth just went through, those are important things to be looking around with, too, because a lot of times, especially when you have a narrow market, as we've discussed, If you went back and look at the S &P 500 and looked at the performance of each stock since even 20 years ago, you'd be shocked at how few participants have been able to generate gains. And if you go outside of the US, MSCI World x the United States is still right around the same level it was in 2007, which means if you've been an investor outside of the US, you haven't done well.

36:09And I think that's why finding and making sure you're paying attention to who gets disrupted during innovation cycles is really important. It doesn't just have to be the sectors we're talking about. It can be globally, too. So this is why these types of conversations are good. Beth, I want to shift back towards the macro side. I'm a macro person, so I spend my time on these thoughts when it comes in. And I want to get your take on this. And we briefly had this conversation as part of the prep call. But I have been writing about for over the last decade, not only as the digital economy takes over more and more from the industrial economy, that by definition, that means we're heading closer and closer to a world of abundance in a way of one of scarcity.

36:55And scarcity is one of the things that has a huge impact on productivity and efficiency, particularly when you think of things like fossil fuels, the lifespan of individuals in the U.S. Lifespan is backing up somehow. We're, you know, over the last 10 years, it's gone backwards. And DeepMind has made a lot of advances in artificial intelligence, specifically on some of these points. So DeepMind made a huge advancement in the fourth quarter of last year in advanced materials and the ability of hopefully down the line being able to create materials, finding kind of the blueprint for them. And this is with GNOME.

37:36At the same time, they made huge advancements in biology with AlphaFold back, I think it was three, four years ago at this point. And then they're also doing and they haven't released anything yet with a name or an acronym, but they're making advancements in fusion with energy, too. So I've looked at this, that things like the price of oil, all kinds of things in the medical side, longevity, you're going to have a big change in some of the most important components that make up GDP. Have you thought about the impact that AI is going to have on more of a top-down basis? And if you specifically want to talk about DeepMind or any of the things there, I think people would love to hear about it and just provoke some thought.

38:19Yeah, I mean, I think when it comes to industries like the healthcare industry, even though it is AI and DeepMind that will disrupt it, the thing about me is I tend to stay in my lane a lot. So I feel like the healthcare industry and pharma and drug discovery is really specialized. And I would hesitate to expand too much in that industry. I would probably defer to someone like yourself. You said that you listen to a lot of people. I would probably go check out what you've written. because it's just an area where I feel it goes back to like, can you pick out one out of 70 cybersecurity stocks? There were 2000 ad platforms when Meta, you know, rose in the stock market.

39:03It's like, I, you know, when it, due to the competitive nature of all of this, I don't know that I could pick out the winner in the healthcare world. Obviously DeepMind is, you know, a marvel and it's probably underreported considering, you know, it's, it's not as hardcore on the consumer side as, you know, chat GPT is getting a lot of attention because it's on the consumer side. Bard now Gemini gets a lot of attention because they're on the consumer side. So, you know, I guess the one thing I would say is that, you know, going toward healthcare and others. The theme that I'm trying to communicate is that AI is really an enterprise technology.

39:46I think enterprise will lead. I said this a few years ago, and then what happened is just this week, we saw Inflection AI basically either shutting down. This was a$4 billion consumer startup that was going to compete with chat GBT,$4 billion valuation, just got$1.5 building in a funding round because consumer is very, very hard. So I think that you're on to something in terms of keeping it enterprise, healthcare, these areas that consumers, this is not a consumer market, but within like healthcare and how DeepMind is disrupting it, I would probably refer to someone like you and would love to hear your thoughts on it.

40:25Yeah. And just so people hear, because she mentioned AI drug discovery within that commentary, Honestly, part of the success of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and Ozempic and Wagovi is directly related to the advancements in artificial intelligence. And if you get the chance, I've referenced this a lot, but if you can find podcasts with Dave Johnson, who at the time, and I think still is the chief AI person at Moderna, talking about what went on for them to come up with a vaccine in basically a weekend after they got the blueprint. it's a way for you to really let your mind wander and you start getting into some of these bigger problems.

41:10And the reason I'm so focused on them is because at some point over the next less than 10 years, for sure, this will have an impact on a lot of different parts of the economy. And so when we talk about 15 to 25 trillion dollars, McKinsey keeps upping their numbers, Goldman does too, on the impact AI is going to have. It's not only an investment trend, But I think for all of us, it's going to have a lot of disruptions. And that gets important for making sure that your kids are entering the right fields and getting involved in things and paying attention. So I think there's a lot in there from a top-down basis.

41:46I did want to kind of finish up our part here before we give the Real Vision crew the opportunity to bring some questions. Can you just give a brief view of crypto? though, because in your world of centralization still continuing, and again, I'm going to say that I've expanded my views that maybe instead of the market discounting this in this year, maybe it discounts it in three years, but I'm still going to stick with my belief that we're headed to less centralization and more decentralization on every level. And for that reason, I've been very, very outspoken about the fact that I believe Bitcoin, which to me is the S &P 500, the amorphous investment vehicle of the crypto world, that in a world where AI is impacting authenticity, where it's forcing more at this point, distribution of wealth problems and the need for more tokenization to open up investment opportunities for people and spread kind of the wealth of selling off or participating in more of the economy, that crypto is actually one of the interesting offshoots of AI, and it's very hard for people to buy into it.

43:01I don't know where your views are, but can you give kind of how you guys are approaching crypto within the context of AI? Sure. We don't own any AI crypto tokens right now. We do own two layer ones, layer two or middleware, and Bitcoin, of course. So we have decent crypto exposure, and always have since we started. But I guess when I think about AI and crypto, the problem goes back to the data sets, the proprietary data sets. So even if you can facilitate like a data exchange, even reward people for their data, adhere to more privacy features into the process, the problem I think is that proprietary data set.

43:55So where I see a few things, meaning big tech will never give up their data sets or cooperate with decentralization unless they're forced. So I think, I guess there's three ways that this could move towards decentralization. AI, specifically with these heavily guarded data sets that are creating fortresses as we speak. And again, I go back to the example of Tesla. Most people would logically say, why would Tesla share their data set? I think Tesla investors get that. And I'm just using them as an example because we tend to think a lot about Google or Facebook because of the social aspect and the search.

44:37But it's all across the board. It was very costly to build those data sets. I'd say there's like three ways. Users finally wake up and they say, hey, this is our data. I don't know if that will happen. Social media use is more like a cigarette or nicotine addiction. people are completely, you know, not aware as to how much they're giving up and how much control big tech has within those news feeds. Most people you have a conversation with, they don't know what you're talking about. So that's not good in terms of the possibility there. And then secondly, I would say the government regulating if we go through a period of dystopia where big tech has ruled it all.

45:18But that piece is also challenging. Or the third, which is my favorite, and this is one I would guess and continue to monitor the space for, is you get some brilliant blockchain developers that create must-have applications, and you see a migration go toward blockchain. And then these search engines and social media apps from a decade ago no longer have that relevancy that they have, that they've enjoyed. So now blockchain starts to control more of the data. You know, you have blockchain applications and developers that have, you know, the data sets, you know, building daily, weekly, over time that are needed for real AI applications.

46:01So that's the one that I like the best is it's an innovation disruption. So I would keep an eye out for those big applications and, you know, that are going to get people to move over to the blockchain. And that's when the AI moment can start. And again, it's all about the data sets. Well, I'm just going to jump back in here now because we have a lot of questions coming in. And I just have to say, I take a lot of notes during interviews, but I think this might have been one of the ones where I most have taken notes. Jordi, I really just have to commend you because talking about how you're making that adjustment, that's really where the fascinating stuff happens in this space.

46:35So it's really interesting to hear how you're adjusting based on what you've read and seen from Beth. And Beth, the last time you told me, if you just remember one thing, it was quite a big thing with NVIDIA. So I'm just highlighting what you said. If you remember just one thing from this interview, that semiconductors are going to become the AI software players. And that example that you gave with Apple partnering with NVIDIA was just a very aha moment for me, as it was for a lot of people watching. I want to bring up some of these questions now. We have the first one with Timothy Vincent. Quite a direct one for you, Beth.

47:09Kathy says, can one invest or place money with IO fund teams? I love that question. Right now we're a portfolio that puts out trade alerts. So we put out like nine trade alerts on NVIDIA under 200. So I wasn't just talking on interviews. We were actually putting out real-time trade alerts. And we actually have an audited result coming out from 2023. Our results are really bigger and better than I ever thought would be possible for our team. And we started out as a hypothesis, can a small team outperform the ETFs and the hedge funds? And our cumulative over four years is going to be 130%. Our time period is negative 10.

47:55And this is from picking the big winners. So what we offer is research, real-time trade alerts, full transparency. Every minute we trade a stock, you know it in instant time. And we've created an exceptional team that even I'm shocked by at times. And so this is going to be one of the bigger announcements we've ever had. And it's coming out next week in BusinessWire. Our audited results and cumulative four-year, which put our 2023 at 56.9. If we were a hedge fund, we would have been number four in the United States, according to Wall Street Journal. So all that would be sourced so people can reference where we would have ranked.

48:35We thought about starting an ETF. Right now, every trade we make is public and our results are audited by BigFirm in San Francisco. So we function very transparently like an ETF does. And we've started to talk to distributors to see what the interest is. And there's interest right now. So we'll see what happens. And of course, if you want special pricing to IO fund, you can go to realvision.com slash Beth and we have a great deal for you there. I want to jump to the next question. Of course, Jordi, feel free to jump in whenever, even though a lot of these will be directed at Beth. Paul English asking the next question.

49:13NVIDIA has price targets ranging from$608 to$1 ,400, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ. What's your price target for NVIDIA, Beth? I'll go, let's say 2030, I'm going to go over minimum 10 trillion market cap. But how we get there will, of course, be determined by the broader tech sector, as well as S &P 500. I mean, there's many forces that come into play. Right now, what I can tell you is that NVIDIA's valuation is hovering around where it was in the October 2022 low. This is very eerie. We're calling it eerily low valuation. This is a buy on dips, but just know that in contrast, Microsoft is sitting at like a Mount Everest valuation.

50:01I mean, if you go and look at the chart, it's just a, it's like a ski slope or something. It's like a dangerous slope. And so can NVIDIA just keep moving in a vacuum? We're waiting for a breather and we'll probably continue to layer into NVIDIA at that time. So I hope that those two things make sense, that NVIDIA as its own stock, low valued, should reach a minimum of$10 trillion by 2030. And majority of that, in my mind, the surprise that's left is going to be AI software. Everyone thinks this is a GPU story, which it is, but that's well understood. Could get you to$3,$4 trillion. But that bigger, powerful move is AI software.

50:48And don't forget that AI software will also include automotive. I don't think I understood that quite so clearly until this conversation. Moving on to the next question, Yunaki Chang. AI replaces white-collar workers and the robot replaces blue-collar workers. Do you see any equivalent of NVIDIA in robotics? Start with you again, Beth? Where NVIDIA will are basically AI will just replace, they're putting the number right now at 300 million jobs, I think is the question. And certainly NVIDIA is in the center of that. And that is a concern. I will say that most technological advancements have had these concerns to some extent, but now that, you know, mobile and internet and software have been proliferated.

51:41You've got people in Africa, people in India that can now be web developers. They can work remotely on teams. We have an excellent web developer from Nepal that we use who's top notch. So it's like as much as there was concerns usually around most technological advancements, somehow, some way they actually improve our lives. So I'd like to say the utopia side. The dystopian side to what you're describing that is a concern to me is that big tech concentration. Because if it's so concentrated, Naval Ravikant, excellent thought leader with blockchain, calls what we live in an oligarchy. And I completely agree with him, which is that this country is run by very few.

52:27And as much as we want to put attention on the president, it's actually big tech. And big tech is controlling people in all ways possible. and I've been a big outspoken person on this. And I know this sounds like I'm getting into a tangent here, but I think that the more pressure that we put on that decentralized AI, even as the masses is going to be really important because we want this to improve people's quality of life, not completely eradicate them. So there's definitely ways to get there. And I think that probably my money would go on phenomenal blockchain developers that cause that migration away from big tech.

53:12And any specific robotics companies that you really single out? I mean, I guess when I think of robotics companies that are most promising right now, for some reason, I go to software. I think something more like UiPath, their automation with software robots. And then of course, NVIDIA. So what NVIDIA is doing for what is important for the robotics world with Omniverse is they create a virtual simulator to where you can train robots in a virtual world. So I like to compare, I go back to Tesla, like I like to compare this because it's easy to understand is that Tesla had to put out a lot of physical EVs and fleets in order to train that data.

53:55NVIDIA at the same time had a virtual world that they were training for autonomous driving. They were training robots in the Omniverse. So they could create a cat that the car had to stop for. They could create the old lady that you have to stop the car for, or like a blizzard that suddenly shows up rather than finding that in the real world. The Omniverse software that, for me, everyone talks about the Blackwell architecture that came out of GTC. I think it's Omniverse is the bigger announcements, is where the robotics world will start to actually see more promise. I can't think of a company right now that is investable to me.

54:30But I think, you know, in one to two years time with Omniverse being integrated more with these cloud APIs, it's going to become more of a possibility that a robotics company could succeed because they can train them in the virtual world. Got it. Fascinating. I do have something to add here. Just because the question gets into an important part of this conversation at two levels. Um, so in talking about job losses from AI, um, you know, instead of saying people lose jobs, what we have a labor shortage right now. And, you know, it's interesting to me that during a labor shortage, people are worried about there not being enough jobs.

55:10And whenever there's a situation like that, you have to kind of dig a little deeper. I also hear complaints that younger people don't want to work as much. Uh, and at the same time, the total value of household net worth across the globe is$500 trillion. The issue you run into is if assets keep going higher and the efficiency and the productivity boom keeps going, what is the value in jobs the same way it was? And I agree with Novel and I agree with what Beth said, which is why I'm strongly in favor of decentralization becoming more of a power movement the same way that populism has been a movement.

55:48The younger generation, the creators, the innovators, the idea makers are going to want a bigger take. And that's what's going to be offered in a world that right now you don't have. And I think that goes for the VC world as well. I think having a company where the owners of the ideas end up only owning 20 to 30 % of their ideas is going to change and it's going to be flipped. And I think that is a movement that is going to be there. And I think people are just going to work less hours and be able to still have net worth that is less dependent on maybe wages. And I think we're just at a turning point.

56:24So I'm less on this robotics will end jobs and more towards people are going to have more time to get a bigger take. And that's going to free up a lot of money that's been trapped in other places for a concentrated wealth component of the world. So I just think this is a different trend that's happening. It's a quite sobering, I guess, somewhat optimistic angle to look at that. We have two questions. First one for Beth from Gary Winters, but then he has a follow-up, which is for you, Jordi. So we'll do the first question from Gary. Beth, which industries, companies will benefit most from AI? You touched on this when you talked about the companies, Beth, but industries, though, could you take it a bit broader and look at the industries?

57:09Sure. So as an analyst for public investors, if I'm too early, then it's the equivalent of being wrong. So I want to basically make that disclaimer that when I usually talk, I'm talking the next year, the next 12 months. We did touch on cybersecurity, but the reason why I like cybersecurity, and we did write about this on the free side, is that it already is an industry that has run a lot of automation. It's based on data and it can just get better and sharper on, you know, threat detection. And this is an industry, cybersecurity, that tends to grow every year, no matter what the broader economy is doing.

57:52It gets more and more expensive to protect companies from cyber attacks. And you can imagine the fallout if a company goes through a cyber attack. So it's one of those very rare areas where we tend to see growth no matter what the broader economy is doing. So that piece is nice because like when we first started the conversation, it's that TAM and that GDP contribution along with the product of the GPU that created NVIDIA's surge. So when you take the product of cybersecurity that has been working with data and automation already for many years, add a generative AI feature to that, plus the fact that this market tends to grow, this industry tends to grow every year no matter what, those pieces are lining up well, in my opinion.

58:37The other one I did touch on, I think we could have a whole conversation on this, is Edge AI. Do not underestimate the impact of AI going to the Edge. In our minds, laptops are archaic. Mobile, who cares? iPhone, et cetera. This is not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about probably one of the first upgrade cycles that we've really ever seen across these Edge devices. So in a couple of years time, the way that your laptop functions, the way that your mobile phone functions will not look anything like it does today. And so that piece is really, really important to remember, too. Those are the two I see in the near term that have that bigger impact.

59:14And just to be clear, you see that as a boon for companies like Apple? I'm not trying to use Apple specifically, but companies like Apple, then you see mega upgrade cycles. So what we need to see from Apple, my hesitation, as you could probably hear it in my voice, is that they have an announcement this week with Google. So I'm not really sure what that announcement is about. I would need more time to flesh that out. But I like some of the semiconductors around this PC upgrade with ARM. um arm's way overvalued right now but there's some that are partnering with arm to move away from x86 on laptops to move into arm-based pcs that's going to be a big move um and then there's some at the edge network that are also really important so apple going back to your question i need to get more time on what's going on here at apple um i didn't love that google announcement this week in terms of a frenemy i mean it's android you know i mean this is their arc enemy, at least in the United States.

1:00:19They have more competition in China, of course. But yeah, so I need to understand that piece better before I can talk accurately on Apple. I love your specificity and your suspicion as well, Beth. And Jordi, going to the second question from Gary Winters, Jordi, which energy sector do you see gaining traction in the next few years, tapping into your macro space there, Jordi? That's a hard question, because I think a lot of the benefits that are going to come are going to be disruptive to the public markets. I think a lot of the ideas, and this is why I brought up DeepMind, and I'll answer the question without exactly answering the question.

1:01:04When I started talking about DeepMind and some of the greatest problems. The question that I spend probably 70 % of my time in macro rabbit holes is the question of why do we age? And the reason that fits into the answer of the energy problem is what AI allows us to do is get to the nano answers that we've never been able to as a species. We're able to get to how can we make other alternative energies by solving the framework for how they're made in the first place. If you think about how archaic it is that we're still on fossil fuels and we have fusion, we have other ways nuclear to already deal with this.

1:01:50I think it's a really hard answer because the governments will stop things. But I also think on the flip side, any kind of advancements that we see in artificial intelligence will probably benefit private companies more than public companies. So I would rather take the case that the fossil fuel side is going to be disrupted. And you can invest in it if you want to deal with cash flow and dividends for a period of time because oil can't go to zero in a day. But I think for any of the energy sides, it's very, very difficult to forecast what the solution on the energy side is going to be. And I think it's very difficult on a lot of these companies that are green, how they're going to survive.

1:02:31So I'm not avoiding the question, but I think it's very, very difficult when it comes to some of these artificial intelligence-driven solutions. Got it. I'm just going to finish up with the last question from Timothy Vincent directed at you, Beth. what type of pullback in markets would get your team motivated to back the truck up on Microsoft and NVIDIA again? Yeah, that's a great question because when we buy, people get just constant alerts on their phone. And that hasn't happened for a little bit now because it's a risk-reward thing. I would say that the portfolio manager, he uses a mix of the S &P 500.

1:03:15He likes to see the S &P 500 risk reward being favorable, which is a little unique. Not all tech portfolios are that interested in the broad market. And then he looks within them charts, and this is pretty in-depth stuff. I mean, it ranges from Elliott Wave to GAN to, you know, he hedges with leveraged ETFs. I mean, it's, you know, deep in the weeds there. And ultimately, on my side, I give the green light a yellow light or a red light on valuation. I have a green light on NVIDIA as a stock, but we're waiting to see what the broad market does. I have a red light on Microsoft, and we did talk about that in January.

1:03:54Microsoft is very overvalued. And so we would need to see that come down in order to back the truck up. And so I wish I could give you an exact moment other than we do a lot of work on the free side. We do a lot of work on this marketplace with Real Vision, and we're crystal clear about when we plan to buy, when that time comes. And it's a lot of transparency activity, webinars every week for over an hour discussing broad market technical charts. So a lot of information in that question that you're asking. And, you know, we do we just do a lot of work there. But right now I don't have a perfect answer.

1:04:38Well, just to recap this very fascinating conversation, Beth talking about looking at the AI players as software players, folks like NVIDIA, also keeping the focus on edge networking and that ruthless cutback, as Beth called it, away from cloud, calling it a landmine. 50 % of cloud stocks on the market today may not be around in 10 years. So quite some takeaways there. Jordi, really appreciate you coming on, talking about how you've adjusted some of your frameworks based on best research. And Beth, always incredible to have you around. Folks know they can find great deals to your content at realvision.com slash Beth as part of our partnership in the Real Vision marketplace.

1:05:23We know what big fans people are of your content. Always appreciate when you come on. We're going to continue How to Unfuck Your Future tomorrow. It's going to be the final installment of the series. we're going to be talking to Dr. Bill Kapp, CEO of Fountain Life. That conversation, I can't tell you how excited Raul is for that one. Really meaningful conversation. And then we're going to wrap it all up on a special edition of Real Vision Daily Briefing tomorrow. We'll have Raul on there. Jamie Coots, our chief crypto analyst here at Real Vision. So look out for both of those tomorrow. And Jordi and Beth, thanks for unfucking our future.

1:06:01Thanks, Sam. Thanks, Real Vision. Thanks, Samuel. Thanks, Beth. Appreciate it. We hope you enjoyed this episode. At Real Vision, we arm you with the expert knowledge, time-efficient tools, and a powerful network to help you succeed on your financial journey. Get a taste of financial freedom with our free offer at realvision.com forward slash free.

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The rise of AI marks a transformative technological, economic, and societal inflection point — one with extreme implications for how we live and invest. So, how can investors take advantage of the trend? Jordi Visser, former CIO and chairman of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, welcomes Beth Kindig, CEO and lead tech analyst at the I/O Fund, to dive deep into AI’s potential for explosive economic growth, how to find winners in this theme, the potential for crypto to decentralize AI, and more. Real Vision members can unlock a special discount on Beth’s I/O Fund newsletters here: http://www.realvision.com/beth
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