Will Earnings Bolster the Bulls? With Dale Pinkert

0:00Hi, everyone. Today's Real Vision Daily Briefing is sponsored by Crane Shares. Learn about their KCCAETF at CraneShares.com. forward slash KCCA forward slash Real Vision. Now to the top analysis of today's markets.

0:25Will earnings bolster the bulls? Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing. With me today is Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGateHub. Hi, Dale. It's great to have you back. Good to be with you, Maggie. Wow. Yeah. Wow. Lots to untangle and to make sense of. And I think a lot of people are sitting here thinking that. So we are all sort of watching nervously and with a great degree of horror, I think it's fair to say, on the developments that are happening geopolitically. And then we roll in and we see stocks rally to start the week. Despite that backdrop of Israel's imminent invasion of Gaza.

1:07We see Treasury yields, stocks up across the board, NASDAQ 1.2, S &P going to end with a gain of 1%, Dow nearly 1%, even though Russell was up, VIX down 10%. And we see Treasury yields creeping up a little bit, the dollar a little bit off its recent highs, a little less action on those two fronts. But I mean, what do you make of this? What's top of mind for you as we kick off this new trading week? Well, when we were up around 4 ,600, I said I was looking for a decline to 4 ,200. And that would be a battleground. And that's exactly what it held. I have to admit, I'm surprised how well it's held up with the backdrop that we have geopolitically, what we had with the NFP, what we have going on in Congress.

1:54So it's definitely the strength. I thought we had peaked last week at 6 ,188, which is around 4 ,400. And we're almost there again. And I didn't expect this kind of move today. So I'm very close to abandoning my bearish stance in the market. If the S &Ps close over 44.50, I'm gone. And I think we could be talking about new highs. So we're really in this good or bad area right now. I would say that probably the bulls have the advantage if we don't reverse these gains sometime this week. So a lot of things have surprised me. I was looking for 1 ,800 gold and 2 ,60 silver, and we got to 1 ,810 gold, and we got to 2 ,60 silver.

2:48And I just bought a third of a position in silver because I thought that it was going to take some time for accumulation to take place. I certainly did not expect gold to rally under$10 in a week. so it's kind of no man's way. What's your sense? Because you can always find something to hang your hat on. So we've seen headlines saying, let's separate these markets out. Let's take equities. We've seen headlines saying, well, some of the early earnings came in good. We had a couple of financials out of the gate, did better than expected. We're going to hear from more. Does that seem reasonable or does it seem like maybe it's something else going on?

3:31I don't know whether it's safe haven flows or just people who are looking for those dips who've been on the sideline and missed out. I mean, can you figure out what's happening underneath the covers here, or is it just too hard to tell? There's a relief with the dollar in a correction. Okay, so last time I was on, I said we could pull up that dollar chart, Gabriel. I said the 107.20 level was a 50 % retracement, and that I can't say just buy the dollar anymore. I said trade the dollar. And we came off from 107.20 pretty good. And then we had the CPI and had that big up day. That's a weekly, that big up week.

4:15And last week, not much. So to me, it looks like we're in a corrective pattern. That takes pressure off of everything. Remember, if you get the dollar right, you could get everything right, usually. Although, you know, things are not trading as all one market as of last week. It's the first time I saw gold up with the market down. Normally, they were moving together. So we're starting to get some differentiation between asset classes. But I can't claim that this is a dollar top. I'm not declaring a top in the dollar. We could correct to say 105, 104.50, but I'm still looking for 109 in the dollar.

4:57that would be probably the next time equities would feel pressure. So a weaker dollar, and if there's still some more left to the downside, I don't see that hurting equities. So that pressure is off, even with yields still looking like they have another push in them. So the dollar is really the linchpin. And unless we reverse today's action, weaker dollar means risk on. Interesting. And you mentioned silver. You mentioned silver surprised you as well. Is that right? I think you sent over a silver chart. Yeah, not as much if you want to put up the silver chart. Silver had a great run. But I want to point out, you see the little red circle at the bottom.

5:45A real important part of my work is RSI work. So when we had that low of 2060, the RSI was making a new low with it. And, you know, I still think that there's a chance if silver stays under 23 and a half and, you know, may try 23, that we could still have one more washout in silver back to the lows. Gold was a stronger move. I'm not sure if that's going to happen in gold. Maybe we make a new low in silver because of the industrial aspect of it. and gold puts in a higher low like 1840, 1850. But I think silver is going to be trading more in sympathy with the copper that I brought, which is also interesting because copper, they say, is the commodity with a PhD in economics.

6:41And we had a breakdown in the copper. and Dr. Copper is being sued for impersonating a bull market. Because, you know, a lot of people love copper because, and they're right, it takes 10, 15 years to get a new copper mine online. But this is not bullish action to me. I think we're going to see the lows. In fact, it reminds me of TLT where the low was confirmed back there, I think it was in October, and that was my basis for looking for new lows in TLT. I think copper is going to make a new low. That would tell me that it's still in a void in China and that the Aussie dollar hasn't bottomed yet and that you could still have a sell-off in silver as it's partly industrial, partly monetary, where gold is all monetary.

7:32And I've said that gold can advance with the dollar advancing. But historically, silver needs a bear market in the dollar to have a bull market. And I just don't think the dollar has peaked yet. I think this is just an interruption in the trend before we have one last hurrah on the dollar. And maybe that last hurrah on the dollar is the Fed next month, which a lot of people are saying. You know, with the war going on, the Fed has the opportunity to pause and wait. If we didn't have the war, that CPI number would be worrisome and the Fed would probably go ahead. Maybe they go ahead anyway. If the market's strong, the market could take it.

8:21So, you know, if we're breaking out and the S &Ps are on our way to new highs, that wouldn't stop the Fed from making a move because that's, you know, they don't have to worry about that we're in a crisis in the financial markets. That would hold them back. Yeah, so there's no fragility. They're not seeing any fragility or strain on the market if they're seeing stocks, so it might give them the cover to. That's interesting because that's not really priced in right now. Is it that the sort of narrative seems to have shifted to the Fed, at least this is people, how they're interpreting what the Fed's talking about, that they're looking to pause and see what happens from here.

9:04Right. And the war may be that excuse for them doing it. And you're right. All the Fed speakers have been out and they're starting to talk that way and the market is believing it. So if it doesn't happen, that could be a shock. Yeah. So the market's setting themselves up for a shock. Once again. Yeah. Once again. because that's been so difficult. And the sentiment has been swinging around and really punishing on will they, won't they, is it higher for longer? Are they pivoting? And everyone's kind of been waiting to catch that. It's been a falling knife on that bond trade. So I think this is, it's so interesting what you're saying, because there's so many correlations that we need to watch.

9:45It's always true in the markets. But I feel like right now, it's particularly true, especially against this very unpredictable backdrop. We have been getting a lot of questions is about gold. I'm glad you brought that up. It came up last Friday when Raoul and I did the AMA wrap at our Festival of Learning. Let's listen to a clip of what he had to say, and then we'll talk on the other side. The regional banks are still weak. Gold doing this tends to tell you it's a cowbell signal. It's like gold is pricing in something happening. Now, I think people like gold over geopolitical weekends like this as well, as a hedge.

10:23because you don't know what's going to happen and bonds aren't working. So what do you do? You go to gold. So my guess is some of this is weekend stuff. But look, gold is also driven by the liquidity cycle, very much like crypto. So a lot of people have been waiting for this to happen. So let's see if it continues past the weekend. But yeah, I mean, generally, I've been bullish on gold. It's like Paul Chidder Jones was talking about gold and Bitcoin. This is the right point in the cycle for these things. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners.

10:56We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

11:22is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500.

11:57It's trading with a plus.

12:04You can watch that full conversation as well as all of the interviews that were part of the festival of learning that we just wrapped over on our website. If you're not a member, just scan the QR code. If there is one, otherwise hit a link that Gabrielle will put in the chat and come join us. It's so worth it. There was so much wisdom shared. I cannot even begin to tell you. And if you did attend, remember you still have time to complete the Ledger Quest. The Quest will provide you with the knowledge tools that you'll need to participate in the next digital wave. 100 of you can also win an RV branded Ledger device.

12:37The contest will be live for the next two weeks. I think anyone can join it. So just go to realvision.com forward slash Ledger Quest. Really cool stuff. So interesting to hear all those people talking about how brands are positioning for this next digital wave. And so interesting, Dale, in that conversation, we're starting to talk about gold and Bitcoin in the sort of same conversation. And we've got some questions about Bitcoin, but let's just kind of make sure that we fully understand your position on gold. So do you think it rallies from here? How are you feeling about gold? I always feel like there's a little bit of perennial disappointment, but I don't know.

13:18As you say, we just saw that rally. So what happens from here? Well, like Raul said, let's see what it does next week after the weekend. And we were down$10,$15 today. I'm not saying that this is a top, but I don't chase leveraged investments. I would buy, you could buy physical, but don't chase leveraged investments. I hardly bought any miners. so I would welcome a retest of the lows in gold and you know I can't rule it out because gold just like silver the RSI confirmed that recent low and that's why I was so surprised with what it did you know you had record shorts in gold and I remember saying when it turned it was probably going to be vicious a vicious spike because of all the short covering that would have to occur so you know what i want to wait till 109 in the dollar and use that as a key because i still think that after this pullback in the dixie and we get one more high i'm just waiting for major levels like euro i've been talking 102 for about five months is my entry just like i was talking about 1800 gold when it was at 2000 and 1980 and 1950.

14:39So I'm going to be patient for that level in euro and about 62 cents or so in Aussie and 118 or so in cable. And then I want to see where the precious metals are after one more high in the dollar. And we'll see, is it going to just be a correction. Maybe it retraces half of the move. That would take it to the level I talked about, 1850 or so, 1860. And perhaps silver, that would really be a strong signal in gold. If silver made a new low, traded down to 20, which I still think is a possibility, and gold puts in a higher low. So we'll see. I look for gold to outperform silver for a while because of silver's industrial nature.

15:31So really, some really good levels and signals to watch out for, for people who are looking at that trade. One of the things you said at the very top of the show, I think we just need to underscore that because you, I think people forget because it's easy to get married to narratives. But the first thing you said is, I'm getting ready to abandon my position. I mean, this is all about watching what the markets do and making sure you stay flexible enough to change your mind and change your positions, right? WDGAN, if you don't learn how to change your mind, you won't have any change left. And do you know how I know that?

16:05Because I've been stubborn before. So you once asked me, Dale, if your scenario doesn't work out, what makes you change your mind? And I said, my stops. So I don't have to change my mind. The market takes me out of the trade because when I get into a trade, I know where I'm wrong. or I won't do the trade. If you can't define your risk before you enter the market, you shouldn't be in the trade. You have to know where you're wrong and what you're looking for if you're right before you assume risk on any trade. So as I said before, we start closing over 44.5. That's it for the bear case for me, and the melt-up guys are going to end up being right.

16:49That is just, I think, such fantastic advice to underscore, and many of you tell us that, And I think it's always worth just really putting an exclamation point on the end of that, because that is the kind of, you know, the framework, the things we talk about in the academy and that all of you caution, you really need to have a plan. You just cannot be flying by the seat of your pants and going with your gut. You got to make sure you protect yourself, especially in times like this, when it's surprising even veterans like you. I mean, you know, you've been trading for a really long time and these are really tricky markets right now.

17:21And you need to make sure you're. And it's okay to say, I don't know. Okay. Because there are times you just don't know. And it's okay to be a spectator rather than a speculator at times. I feel that we're in one of these time periods right now where I'm being very cautious. It's a good time to reduce leverage and have wider stops to let your trades breathe if you're going to trade or be patient for your levels. and act when they get there instead of feeling like you have to be in the market all the time. Okay? And, you know, when I was a younger trader, I felt very uncomfortable saying, I don't know.

18:05So I would pretend I knew and come up with something because people have a hard time. They feel stupid if they don't know when it's really wisdom to admit, I don't know, and I'm on the sidelines. That's a position, too. Cash is a position too. Yeah, absolutely fantastic advice, which is what everyone's saying right now, including Paul, solid advice. Doug has a really interesting comment. Isn't Mr. Market saying that our money managers are off their benchmarks and need a year-end rally? That could be. You know, pretty difficult year, except we've had that big rally. I don't know if they're off their benchmarks because they became cautious or they bought the wrong kind of equities.

18:56But yeah, there's always that performance chase going into the end of the year. But, you know, just be careful out there because things can change overnight. But we do have two wars going on. We have two theaters of war in Europe and in the Middle East now. So there's only one theater left that hasn't opened. so you have to be careful you don't know if this could escalate and uh like i said it's right to be prudent and rather than trying to be a hero so i i don't know if that's going to be the reason i think the reason is going to be a dollar peak uh yields peaking um are going to be the reason for the market to continue.

19:49And earnings, you know, we're getting good earnings. So, you know, we're going to know very shortly whether or not we're going to have this melt up or not. We're not that far away from that inflection point of 44 and a half. We're about 70 handles away. But I did bring a few charts of some tech. Yeah, before we get to the tech, let's just touch on, because there were some questions about this. And it was part of what Raul touched on. We just talked about gold and Bitcoin. Are you watching Bitcoin at all? Gabrielle, on the platform, if you pull up the Bitcoin chart, it's on a lot of people's minds.

20:26Because, of course, we saw that spike on a rumor that maybe BlackRock was approved for the spot Bitcoin ETF. That was later shot down. But clearly, people feel like a decision is getting closer. I don't know. Are you, how does Bitcoin look interesting here to you? And of course it came right back down, but you know, it shows a lot of people are circling this. We mentioned Paul Tudor Jones has been talking about it. How do you feel about, how do you feel about Bitcoin right here? You know, it was coming real close to a breakdown at 25K before today. And the fact that it's spiked that way tells me there's some backholders that chased it and they're still long waiting for the news event for BlackRock to get approval on the ETF.

21:13I'm still in the camp that there's going to be one big swoosh in equities, including Bitcoin. And I still think there's a chance for risk off that could take Bitcoin under 25 and down to 20 or 19 ,000. That would be a big move from here. It would be a big move. So, you know, I think that today's rally was a selling opportunity. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

21:52All right, Ralph, that answers your question. What about technology? So last time we talked, you were bearish some members of the Magnificent Seven, and you did bring some charts. It's different. Some of them are different now. I think last time it was Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, if I'm not mistaken. I think that today we've got NVIDIA, Apple, and Tesla. So what are you looking at? Well, the Magnificent Seven must know we're getting close to Halloween because the ghosts of the Magnificent Seven that I thought was buried, they have recovered. But what's interesting, let's start with the poster child of AI.

22:33That would be NVIDIA. All right, Gabrielle, can we pull that chart up? She's like, she's like, has fire fingers, Gabrielle. Yeah, so if you look at this formation and look to the left of the high, you have a left shoulder. Last week, and I thought, you know, it was finished after we got to 380 and reversed last week. We're taking out last week's highs in the S &Ps, and NVIDIA is still pretty far away from that. This could be a right shoulder of a head and shoulders top with a neckline down there. What is that? About 410. And if we break down under 410, that measures to the gap area, which is something I've been looking for a long time.

23:19So I'm still bearish NVIDIA and thinking that we're putting in a failing rally in NVIDIA. Okay, so beware. What about Apple? Apple rallied towards that 180 level. It was down today. What a surprise. Apple sales, iPhone sales in China aren't going well. Last time you and I talked, I made that prediction several months before. Yes, you did. He's banning iPhones. Yeah. So he wanted to hit an American icon. And so is it a surprise that the general population in a totalitarian state doesn't want to buy iPhones either when the people in the government that control them aren't using it? Also, you know, China has some problems with economic strength and maybe they get a better deal on Huawei or however you say it on those phones.

24:22So if we stay under this 182, 83 level, I see us heading back down towards that 165. And under 165, you get big targets like 135. So still negative Apple compared to the rest of the market. It's really not performing. So, you know, and it is something that everyone owns. And they haven't given up on it. And they probably won't give up on it. anyway they may have to start liquidating if we take out 165 170 is big but I'm still bearish that as well and then I thought I'd take a look at a cult stock yeah because yeah because last time I was on one of your viewers said Dale what do you think of Tesla the monthly chart looks outstanding and I said I said I couldn't answer because I haven't looked at Tesla but I I brought it here and Tesla as well with market strength is underperforming.

25:26We have two lower highs in Tesla right now. And under Friday's lows, it's vulnerable for maybe a move to 210. So there are, you know, and these are darlings. I'm not talking about some esoteric stocks when I talk NVIDIA, Apple and Tesla. So, you know, even though the S &Ps look great today, there are some underlying cracks in some of the widely held Magnificent Seven that put on their sheets to be a ghost for a few weeks. Scaring you. Some people are happy about it, I bet. But what do you, Christopher asking, what does Dale think of the tired action in IBM? I don't think we can put them anywhere near the Magnificent Seven, but have you looked at IBM?

26:19You know, I'll have to bring that up next show. I haven't, but I have looked at Intel. And Intel had a false breakout a few weeks ago and keeps testing this level. And, you know, Intel's kind of like IBM. And it has a chance to still not be good here if we start to stall. I forgot the numbers. I don't have it in front of me. But if anything that's tired now, right, will end up being comatose later. So if something isn't showing relative strength in this market, that's a sign. Like when you have a tailwind in the market and laggards are barely participating, what's going to happen when the tailwind turns into a headwind?

27:08They become weaker. Or, you know, there's another metaphor I use. What happens when you buy something at a discount store, the dollar store? You bring it home and it breaks, right? It doesn't have any kind of durability or anything. It's cheap and it breaks. You get what you pay for. And it breaks, you know. So the same thing happens in stocks. It may be cheap, but that doesn't mean it can't break. TrillionX asking, do you think we see a tax-selling driven bare leg on TLT before Christmas? Why not? Why not book the loss? But I'll tell you something. Last time I was on, I said I think TLT could go to 86.

27:58We got down to 84. We had a nice little bounce. It looks like we're, I wish I had brought that chart, going to have one more break. That could be a third drive. I wouldn't be pressing the short side of TLT anymore. I know the whole world's real bearish. But, you know, if the market doesn't break out to the upside and we do take out 4 ,200, which I still think is possible. And under 4 ,200, there's going to be, I think, an air pocket to 39 and a half. Some people are talking 41 and a half. But if we get that break, I know Raul said bonds weren't working, but it's possible that we finally get some type of flight to quality.

28:46There are divergences developing in TLT. So it tells me at the minimum cover shorts if you don't want to be long. I wouldn't be short TLT anymore. Yeah, that's a great point. And yeah, I think Ralph fits into that camp of people who - I think gold miners are a real great candidate for tax-less selling because gold and silver miners are miners because they've been under pressure all year. They've bounced pretty good, but not as good as the bullion has. And if the metals sell off, especially if I'm right about the RSI take on it, There's going to be plenty of tax selling in miners because people are pretty fed up.