Best of Mark Moss: Bitcoin, CBDCs, and the Future of Money

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1:38Prior to 1974, there was a thing called defined benefit. A defined benefit was the pension plan my father had. The state of Hawaii guaranteed him, let's say,$1 ,000 a month until the day he died. But with a defined contribution, if I did the same thing as my poor dad did, and let's say I had$100 ,000 in my retirement account and inflation takes off, the$100 ,000 is gone. you understand the predicament there and then you're like 80 years old and you're up the up the creek without a paddle so what would you do how would what kind of strategy let's say mark you're 65 years old you know all this about crypto how would you do it starting from nothing it depends on the time frame and the amount of money that you need but let's make this simple we'll talk about it in a couple different ways so the first thing is i i just want to say real quick Retirement as far as doing nothing shouldn't be our ultimate goal.

2:40Robert, you retired at 47, but here you are working. But it's about to your game that you have behind you. It's about freeing yourself from the rat race. So you can work on things you want to do. So not freedom from work, but freedom to work on what you want. So let's talk about if you're sort of behind on the amount of money that you need to break out of the rat race as you have on the board game behind you. And so Bitcoin and crypto in general gives us this opportunity that we haven't had before because it's been the best performing assets in history at any time frame. So the best asset in 15 years, 10 years, five years, three years, and this year.

3:19So that gives us this opportunity to make up that gain that we need. Now, I believe this will continue for a couple of different reasons, but mainly what we're witnessing is the digitalization of money and digital assets will always move faster than physical assets. So the digitization of money, digital capital, as we call it, will outperform the S &P 500, which is companies, brick and mortar. And S &P 500, productive businesses will always do better than credit. So we have those three markets. Okay, so Michael Saylor states that Bitcoin will continue to have at least a 30 % compound annual growth rate for the next 21 years.

4:04So let's go with that. What that means is if I have$10 ,000 today, that will be$2 million in 10 years. That's how compounding works. $10 ,000 today becomes$2 million in 10 years. So you can make up a lot of room. I think that Bitcoin can achieve around a million dollars in the next five or six years with about an 8 or 10x from here today. So I think I projected we'll hit about a million dollars by 2030, 2031. So that would maintain a 50 % compound annual growth rate. So over the last three years, it's been 60. I'm saying it will continue at 50 for the rest of the decade, the next four years. That means that if I had$100 ,000 in my retirement account, I could buy$100 ,000 of Bitcoin, and that could be worth about$1 million in five or six years from now.

4:56Now, how do we retire off of this? So that's the first part. How do we make up graph? So if you're behind, you can put some into Bitcoin. It's projected to return somewhere between 50, maybe down to 30 % compounding over the next 5, 10, 20 years. That's tough for me because I'm real simple. I agree with the assumption. Bitcoin was designed to win because it's only 21 million. And we're almost at 21 right now. So that's why with the world market coming to Bitcoin, and they do mean the world. My question to you is, let's say I'm 65 years old. I buy it today at$100 ,000. It's worth a million dollars five years from now.

5:45how would I cash flow it? Like my real estate just gets more valuable and my cash flow keeps going up. So I get richer every year. Happens, it's like some people buy their house and they sell it. They have no asset anymore. They have capital gains. How would a person take, you buy a hundred thousand Bitcoin today, it's a million dollars in five years, let's say. These are just guesses. So what I think about is you buy a piece of real estate and it's going to give you a six or 8 % yield, this capital that you get from it. You don't sell the asset, you get the cash flow from it. But I would say if we look at income just a little bit different and maybe more broad, like a first principle approach.

6:26If I bought a property for 100 ,000 and a year later sold it for 200 ,000, that's income, right? I had to sell the asset. So Bitcoin is going up at 50 % per year, but it doesn't produce a yield like Bitcoin. So to your point, I would have to sell it and I would pay tax. And then I no longer have the asset compounding, which is terrible. So what we want to do is we want to use debt. And what we can do is we can harvest some of the appreciation with debt leverage. So let's keep it simple. It's a hundred thousand today. And it's a million dollars in 10 years, let's say. Yeah. How would you harvest that gain in there?

7:11So if Bitcoin is going up by 50%, let's call it 30. If it continues to go up at 30 % in five years from now, I have a million dollars of Bitcoin now. It's going up at 30 % a year. I can borrow 10 to 15 % against it every year in perpetuity because it's going up by 30. I'm only borrowing at 15. So you would borrow against it? I would borrow against it. And I would roll the debt every year. So in year one, I have$100 ,000 today. In five years, it's a million. I would borrow$150 ,000 against that tax-free, and I would spend it,$150 ,000. Next year, I would borrow$300 ,000. I'd pay off the$150 ,000.

7:58I'd keep the$150 ,000 tax-free. The next year, borrow$450 ,000, pay off the$300 ,000, keep the$150 ,000 tax-free. to amortize the original loan, then borrow more, use the gain to amortize the loan. That's right. And as long as Bitcoin's compound annual growth is higher than the interest on the debt, I can do that forever. Freaking brilliant. I learned it from you, Robert. I learned it from you. And so we never sell the asset, so it continues to compound. I never pay the tax. And then the next question people ask me, Robert, is, well, that's great, Mark, but when would I pay off the debt? And my question, my answer is never.

8:41Never. The only time you'd ever pay off the debt is if the growth rate was below the cost of the debt. But because we're leveraging digital markets, physical markets, and credit markets, it should always outperform a credit market, just like real estate debt. I don't care what the price of gold is. I just wonder how many ounces you have. Right. That's my philosophy. And Robert, that's the perfect philosophy. And of course, I'm a student of yours. And so I kind of have repeated that and I teach the same thing. And so not that wealth is our highest purpose on this earth, but in the game of acquiring wealth, the goal is to get assets.

9:20And the goal is to continue to acquire those assets, not sell assets for fiat, but use fiat to get assets. And so what we do is we're really, we're saving. Instead of what I've done, Robert, is instead of thinking of as investing, I think of as savings. I earn my money through my businesses through my, and then I put that money, I save it in real estate and I save it in Bitcoin and I save it in gold. And so the goal is to always allow it to grow up. And yes, I bought the$70 ,000 top. I'm going to buy the million dollar top. I'm going to buy the$2 million top and I'm going to keep buying it all the way up.

9:51We're talking about Bitcoin. That's old guy, young guy, old bull, young bulls and old saying goes if you're old enough to know that story but uh we're talking about bitcoin where it can go what's expected so i'm gonna have two questions for you on this segment number one today bitcoin's about let's say seventy thousand dollars sixty or seventy what is your guesstimate and as a guesstimate and i'm not recommending anybody buy bitcoin this is an educational show only i think in 50 years from now or less less than 50 years bitcoin is worth 43 million. Per coin. Per coin. And how do you compute that?

10:32Yep. Let's get to that. So the way that you would look at, say, a Silicon Valley investment, if I was pitching you on Uber 15, 20 years ago in Silicon Valley, I'd say, hey, Robert, I have this way to call a ride from your phone. You're like, I like a taxi. I'm like, yeah, I like a taxi, but it's better. It's more convenient. It's Uber. You're like, okay, Mark, how much is it worth? I say 100 million. You're like, what? Where'd you get 100 million? Well, Robert, the taxi industry is this big. The limo industry is this big. The van shares this big. If I get five or 10 % of those, I get to a hundred million.

10:59So that's sort of the way that you look at the markets is disrupting. So Bitcoin is going to be a lot of things more than what we know, but we do know today it's competing as a store of value. So it's competing against value itself. So what are the store of value assets? Gold. We have about 14 trillion. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, they've put out guidance that it will overtake gold at some point. That's about 14 trillion. We know that also rich people store their wealth in cars, fine art, collectibles, things like that. And that's about 25 trillion right there. We know that people store their wealth, not in dollars, but in the stock market, 120 trillion there.

11:38We know that people store their wealth, their value in real estate. There's about 350 trillion there. We know that people store their wealth in bonds. There's 300 trillion there. We know people store their wealth, some of them in fiat, about 120 trillion there. And we know people store them in offshore bank accounts. There's about 30 to 40 trillion there. If we add that up, we get to about$900 trillion. Right. And now if we, if I could, one of the things that I've had to adjust to is thinking in dollars versus Bitcoin. And that's, that's a long time because they just print more dollars. That's right.

12:16I mean, our debt-to-GDP ratio, that was 135. They're printing a trillion dollars every 90 days. It's insane. It's nuts. So, I mean, how do you measure dollars and cents and all this stuff? That's why I'm in Bitcoin because it's 21 million. That's it. And to really put this home, Robert, for your listeners, if I were to buy a stock, let's say I invested into your business and I bought, let's call it whatever, 10%, I own 10 % of your company. As you continue to raise money, a lot of times I get diluted. So I don't own 10 % anymore, I own 5%, 1%. If you think about it, nobody wants money, we want the wealth, the goods and services.

12:56And so really it's all the money in the world divided by all the goods and services of the world. But if I own, let's say 1 % of the US dollar ledger, I own 1 % of the dollars in circulation, I own 1 % of the wealth. But as they print more dollars, I get diluted. I own less and less as the ledger. But Bitcoin changes that. Because let's say that I could own 1 % of the Bitcoin ledger, then the Bitcoin divided by the assets in the world, I never get diluted. As the assets of the world grow, I continue to always own 1%. So it's pretty revolutionary that way. But what back to you... And what I say is, as Bitcoin goes up in purchasing power, as a dollar comes down, That's how I see the whole thing.

13:42I'm going, it's like, yeah, I've enriched that port. I said, savers were losers. But the seller says, what do you call somebody who saves fiat or US dollars? He says, poor. Poor people are saving fiat. They don't understand Bitcoin or crypto yet. So I think, what I think is it's$900 trillion. I think that Bitcoin can easily capture 10 % of that market in the next five or six years. that brings it to about a$200 trillion valuation. That would be$10 million per Bitcoin. But what happens is money is evolutionary. So it starts as like, oh, look at this cool rock or feather. It's a collectible. As it could eventually evolve to become a store of value, fine art, cars, et cetera.

14:25If it has the right money attributes, portable, divisible, durable, et cetera, it could go to a medium of exchange. And then the final stage would be a unit of account. And I believe that in less than 50 years, Bitcoin will be what we call the unit of account. Instead of measuring things in dollars that are changing all the time or euros or yen or yuan, I think Bitcoin will become the unit of account. So then we take the$900 trillion divided by the$21 million gives us$43 million per Bitcoin. That's a big call. It's a bold call.

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17:29So I think I reference quite often what Henry Kissinger said, which was maybe a warning to the world, but I think it was more of a call to arms on their side. So he said, if you control the food, you control the people. If you control the energy, you control the continent. If you control the money, you control the world. And let's back up. A lot of people don't know who Kissinger was. He's still alive. He's still alive. Yeah, he's still alive. He's pretty old. Well, he's Secretary of State, right? For Nixon. Yeah. So he opened the door to China. Opened the door to China, but also, you know, instrumental throughout Europe as well during that time of the, you know, coming out of the World War II, kind of redrawing the world and setting peace and stuff like that.

18:13So he was very influential and he still is today, right? And he was teaching at, was it MIT or Yale or one of the big colleges, one of the big universities is where Klaus Schwab met him and studied under him. That's right. That's right. So Klaus Schwab studied under him. I forget which university it was. But yeah, he studied under him. And so he's carried on the same philosophy, the same philosophies. And I think, you know, people say, oh, you're drawing, you're, you're, you're cherry picking data. Well, really? Like, what are the attack vectors today? So food, we're running out of food. Per the UN, they say 800, I think it's 868 million people could starve to death in the next 24 months.

18:48So are you saying Kissinger, how would you classify his political core? Is it fascist? Power and control. That's fascist. Yeah, fascist. I think those labels are difficult, right? They're fascist, sure. Do you know where he got his education or his ideology? I don't, but I can see the world that he grew up in, right? So World War I, World War II. So that shaped his worldview. I don't know exactly who he studied. But the reason I was shocked when you just said that, I'm going, because when I was a kid, he was extremely well-respected. Oh, yeah. You know, he was Nixon. He was doing all these global initiatives and all that stuff.

19:30Then to hear him associated with Klaus Schwab, who I don't know much about anyway. And then Schwab was a student of Kissinger. It makes what you and I and we teach and so many guys like George Gammon and Kenny Mac makes what we teach more important. Yeah. because we teach freedom and capitalism, and these guys teach fascism. Communism. Communism. Sorry, got anything you want to say? Real quick thing. On Palerslade's Gold, you did an interview, which we all studied here as a company, and one of the things you talked about was Klaus Schwab, who said, you'll own nothing and be happy. What does that mean?

20:04Yeah, so it means what it sounds like, so you'll own nothing and be happy. So what they think, what Marxism thinks is that if we could take away your private property and you could just have everything, like live in a commune, like communism, and we could take away human desire to strive and to have more because that's what poisons us. This capitalist system that makes me want to work and achieve more and have more order. Human nature. Right, human nature. If we can take that away, people would be happy. Because right now we're unhappy because we don't have what we want. We're always striving.

20:38We always have to work harder. And so if we could take that away, but that's what they think. So you'll own nothing and you'll be happy because you won't need to strive. Nobody else. You won't see anybody else having something that you don't have. And they think there's this utopia, but they don't understand there's human nature to your point. But that's what I'm asking you. Is it intent or is it a mistake? It's 100 percent intent. Right. So obviously, Karl Marx wrote the book, The Communist Manifesto. And that book has that book, unfortunately, as far as I understand, has become the most read book in both political science and economics.

21:14Just for people to understand here, it was back in 1944 after the end of World War II, because most times like this leads to war. You know, 1944, a whole new currency came out. It was called the U.S. dollar backed by gold. It was called the Bretton Woods Agreement. And slowly but surely, they kept changing the rules. And so in 1971, Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. He broke the Bretton Woods Agreement. And then what happened is in 74, Nixon sent Kissinger to Saudi Arabia and said, we're gonna back the dollar with oil. So the dollar became the petrodollar. And, you know, for everybody listening to the show for all these years, I'm always saying, you know, don't save dollars, save gold and silver and Bitcoin.

21:59Right. So what are your thoughts on all those historical facts coming to a head today? Are we adding to the dark ages? We are for a number of reasons. I say that with tongue in cheek, because when I studied history, I said, oh my God, the Dark Ages are coming. It's the end of an empire. The American empire is coming to an end. Yeah. So if you look at what sent us into the Dark Ages was after the Roman Empire fell, they went in and destroyed all the libraries, all the information, and it was almost like human civilization had to start over, like they didn't know anything. And what are we doing today?

22:34We're destroying all our history. We're changing math. We're changing facts. 1619 Project. Right. And it's almost like we're losing what we know to be true. And now we're going to be lost in this dark ages. Information will be censored. And then the money will be lost as well. And so I've been a history buff for years. I mean, the way I got into gold and silver was in 1964. I knew nothing. Yeah. And I was just starting high school. And I pulled up a dime and a quarter and it had copper on it. Yeah. I went like this, you know. So why is it copper? And I didn't know I was bumping into Gresham's Law.

23:18And Gresham's Law has been around since the dinosaurs walked the earth. Right. And Gresham's Law says anytime the government or anybody tries to pass fake money off onto you, real money goes into hiding. Good money drives out bad. Yep. So we're at Gresham's Law right now on a massive global scale. So what do you say to people? We're in the middle of Gresham's Law. I don't save dollars. But if you want, let me tell you what's actually being planned by the big bank organizations that they're trying to put in place right now. And so if we look at the world in like this org chart, above us we have like these policy makers.

23:56And so that would be, well, the policy enforcers would be like the governments. Above that are the policy makers. And so these are like the World Economic Forum. We have the Club of Rome, these types of things. You mentioned Kissinger. So Kissinger is really the one that kind of put all this together. Above that, we have the central banks. And then above the central banks, we have the Bank of International Settlements. So they, you know, Mayor Rothschild famously said, give me control over a nation's money. I care not who makes its laws. Right. I love that. Say it again. Give me control over a nation's money.

24:24I care not who makes its laws. Kissinger said, control the food, control the people, control the energy, control the continent, control the money, control the world. And so when you look at this org chart, you see that the BIS, the Bank of National Settlements, and the central banks are above the governments. And they control the governments by controlling the money.

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