171: How Wall Street Values Stocks (And How You Can Too)

20:26Robert Croak:What are you doing now with this information?

20:29Austin Hankwitz:Austin, I really like that breakdown. And I think this episode is incredibly important because there's all these terms and acronyms and everything that goes on in investing. And we just really want to educate everyone so they actually understand what they're buying. Personal finance is personal, but we also want to get you guys on board to understand better how we choose a stock, how we know if it's the right time to start dollar cost averaging into NVIDIA or Micron or whatever it may be. And this episode is for all of that to help you guys really totally finally understand what all this means.

21:02Robert Croak:So let's now tie it all together here and say, okay, I know these valuation metrics, I know how to compare them, but how is it going to help me predict what the stock price might be in the future? And that's what the analysts on Wall Street do every single day. You might turn on CNBC and hear that Goldman Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on XYZ Company with a$250 price target in a buy rating. Or maybe you go to Yahoo Finance or maybe in your brokerage app and you see a price target from Wall Street. Wall Street Favorites has price targets on the website. But where does that$250 price target from Goldman Sachs actually come from?

21:42Robert Croak:Because it's not a guess. It's not just vibes. It's an exact framework that we have just walked you all through, but they project it forward.

21:50Austin Hankwitz:So here's what an analyst actually does. They take the three valuation ratios we just covered, the PE, the PS, and the EV to EBITDA ratio. And instead of looking backward at what the company earned last year, they project forward. They estimate what the company will earn next year or the year after. And then they build these detailed financial models, essentially spreadsheets where they forecast revenue growth, margin expansion or contraction, capital expenditures and earnings per share, all of it. Then they apply a valuation multiple to those forward estimates. And that's how they derive at these numbers.

22:26Robert Croak:And you can create your own price targets. It's super simple. Let's walk through how to do it. Let's say an analyst is covering a company that earned$8 of earnings per share last year. The analyst studies the company's product pipeline, their competitive position, the trends, the management guidance, all that stuff. And they conclude that company is going to deliver$10 per share of earnings next year. So a 25 % increase. So their profits, that net income are going to increase by 25 % the next year. Now they need to determine what multiple this company deserves. They look at where the company has historically traded.

23:06Robert Croak:So let's say that five-year PE ratio is 22. They then look at where maybe their peers are trading. Similar companies are trading between 25 and 28. They factor in the company's growth and they think that a 25 PE ratio is fair. So now the simple math is they take that 25 and they multiply it by next year's profits. So if their profits is$10 of earnings per share, They then take that$10 of earnings per share, multiply it by 25, and they get a$250 price target. That is literally how it works. That's exactly how it all comes together. That is all Wall Street is doing here with these price targets.

23:45Robert Croak:They try and forecast what the profits, what the sales, what the EBITDA might be in the next 12 months. They then look around and see, well, what is it historically trading at? What are their peers trading at? Has this industry growing. They slap a multiple on it. And then in turn, they have a price target that they are looking toward.

24:04Austin Hankwitz:And this is exactly why you see wildly different price targets on the same stock from analyst to analyst. One analyst thinks earnings will be$10 and their fair PE is 25 and they get a$250 price target. Another analyst is more conservative on growth, estimates at$8 and uses a 20 times multiple and they get$160 price target. Same company, same publicly available data, completely different assumptions about the future. So the consensus price target, that number you see on Yahoo Finance or your brokerage app, is the average of all those individual opinions. Maybe 20 to 30 analysts who each built their own model with their own estimates averaged together to give you that blended price that you see right there in your app.

24:50Robert Croak:And that's actually what we put inside of Wall Street Favorites. We only cover companies, I think with like at least 10 or 15 different analysts take their consensus average price target. And that's what you see when you go to wallstreetfavorites.com and you look up a company by their price target. And it's ranked by those highest upside to the price targets on wallstreetfavorites.com. That's what we do there with the consensus price target. But here's where things actually get useful for you as an investor. When a stock is trading at 150 a share and the consensus price target is$200 a share, that represents 33 % upside.

25:24Robert Croak:That means the aggregate view of all the professional analysts that cover the company full time, people who get paid six figures to study one stock and their competitors every single day, believe it's worth about a third more than where it trades today. So it's interesting and important to go look and see, okay, wait a second. This company is at$150. WallStreetFavorites.com says that the consensus price target is$200. That represents a 33 % upside. Do I agree with that? If yes, maybe I should add it to my watch list. Maybe I should do more research and digging into what this company is and determine if it belongs a place in my own portfolio.

26:04Austin Hankwitz:Now, to be clear, this does not guarantee the stock will reach$200. Analysts get it wrong constantly every single day. And you should actually study these analysts as well to see what their track record is actually like. But when 25 out of 30 analysts who study a company for a living think it's worth significantly more than its current price, that's a meaningful data point that we want to follow. It tells you the weight of professional opinion is on one side and the gap between the current price and that consensus, that upside percentage is one of the most powerful screening tools individual investors have access to.

26:39Robert Croak:And again, WallStreetFavorites.com ranks stocks in the S &P 500 by the highest upside. So right now I'm looking at the website. DoorDash sits at number one with a consensus price target sitting 72 % above its current stock price. Tractor Supply Company, Intuit, Boston Scientific Corporation. These are all companies whose consensus price targets are above 50 % their current stock price. So you don't need to build models yourself. You don't need a Bloomberg terminal. You don't need a MBA. You just need to understand what that price target represents, which is that forward earnings times a fair multiple, and then use the gap as one input in your investment decision.

27:21Robert Croak:Do not go see, oh my gosh, DoorDash. I'm looking over at these names. I need to go buy them all. No, you don't. No, you don't. This is one simple input in your larger investment decision, right? If you want to invest into a single stock, you have to build conviction as to why you want to own it in the first place with, yeah, Wall Street thinks there's some meaningful upside is one part of that conviction, but it's not everything. So don't just blindly go follow what Wall Street says and buy all of the different names that they think of the biggest upside, because in my opinion, that's a fool's errand.

27:53Austin Hankwitz:So Austin, here's the framework in four steps for the audience. Step one, stock price is not the price tag. Market capitalization is. A$200 stock can be cheaper than a$50 stock when you measure what you're actually paying for, for the whole business. Step two is the three ratios that tell you what you're paying. The price to earnings ratio for every dollar of profit, the price to sales ratio for every dollar of revenue, and that enterprise value to EBITDA for every dollar of core operating cash flow. Each one has its place depending on the type of company you're analyzing.

28:28Robert Croak:In step three, those ratios only mean something in context. Compare them to the company's own five-year history or their sector peers. A price-to-earnings ratio of 30 is cheap for one company and expensive for another. So context when you're doing this is so important. In step four, those analyst price targets. They're built by projecting those ratios forward by one year. Estimated future earnings times some fair multiple equals a price target. The consensus is the average of 20 or even 30 analysts on Wall Street coming together and saying, yeah, this is that consensus price target. And the gap between the current stock price and that consensus price target is the upside signal you're looking for.

29:15Robert Croak:But remember, it's only one input as you build your entire investment thesis on a single stock. It is not something that you take and go run with and just go buy all these stocks because Wall Street thinks they've got high upside.

29:29Austin Hankwitz:If you want to see all four of these steps applied to hundreds of stocks in one place, valuation scores, analyst consensus targets, upside percentages, historical comparisons, go check out wallstreetfavorites.com. We built it to give you the same Wall Street analysis that professionals use. So check the link in the show notes. And if this episode was helpful, share it with someone who's just getting started investing or someone you know who's still picking stocks based on share price, because this is foundational stuff. And the more people understand it, the better decisions they'll make in the future and the better off they'll be in their portfolios.

30:06Robert Croak:Yeah, this might be one of those episodes that people have to listen to twice, write down some terms, get the notebook out, things like that, which no shame in your game if you're doing that. I think that's a great idea. But the big call out here is to ensure that you understand that none of this stuff happens in a vacuum and that the stock market is a pendulum that swings from overvalued to undervalued. If you can look at the stock price and then plot over the years, the price to earnings ratio of that stock price, you will see that it swings from overvalued down to undervalued, back up to overvalued because humans are emotional creatures and we buy, buy, buy and we sell, sell, sell and we are all over the place, which is why it's never been more important to have a plan and stick with it and dollar cost average into the index funds and ETFs we talk about, as well as the largest, most blue chip names in your own portfolios.

31:00Robert Croak:So think Amazon or Google or Apple or Microsoft, right? Just buying and dollar cost averaging into things over a long period of time and not trying to time the markets. But as you do have this information now handy in your back pocket, next time you think, hmm, I really want to buy this stock, or this is really interesting to me, or my buddy Joe told me about this, or my Aunt Martha brought this up at the dinner table, I'm going to go figure out the valuation metrics. I'm going to go figure out Wall Street's price targets. I'm going to go do research myself. That's the whole point of the show, to provide resources and information so you can go be an educated investor making educated decisions with your money.

31:43Austin Hankwitz:I love this episode because after today, there is no more buying a stock. You don't understand why or what the company actually does because you heard about it on the internet from some random guy who's getting paid to talk about it. So that is what this episode is all about, arming you with all of the information to make educated decisions so you can do the best for your own portfolios because personal finance is personal.

32:08Robert Croak:Now, before we jump to the Q &A section of the episode, got to give a shout out to public.com, the platform I hope that everyone uses to buy stocks on. On public, you can build a multi-asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, cryptocurrency, and now generated assets, which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index using artificial intelligence.

32:30Austin Hankwitz:And it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20 % year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one-of-a-kind index, and even lets you backtest against the S &P 500, all with just a few clicks.

32:51Robert Croak:Generated assets are like ETFs, but with infinite possibilities. They're completely customizable. They're based on your thesis, not someone else's. So go to public.com slash rich habits and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash rich habits.

33:07Austin Hankwitz:Paid for by public investing. Full disclosure in the podcast description.

33:11Robert Croak:As a reminder, we close off every episode answering your questions. You can ask us questions on Instagram via DM at rich habits podcast, or you can email us your questions via email at rich habits podcast at gmail.com. We get hundreds of questions every week. So if you don't answer your question, give us some slack here. But we've got three great questions in this episode. The first one comes from Arturo. Arturo emailed us and said, Hello, Austin and Robert. Thank you for answering my last question about direct indexing. You're welcome, Arturo. That's awesome to hear. Your insights were very useful in my decision making.

33:45Robert Croak:I have a question, this time regarding the hype stock of VCX. A few episodes after the VCX ticker went live, Austin said something along the lines of, I hope you guys didn't buy the hype. Which leads me to believe that there is some pattern recognition happening, likely from your experience and knowledge that this was indeed a hype case, maybe a bubble bursting. My question is, how do you distinguish between a short-term speculative bubble, like I think the one VCX experienced, and genuine growth potential? What a great question. So yes, let's talk about VCX for a second. VCX is the public ticker for private tech.

34:23Robert Croak:It's the Fundrise Innovation Fund. They own Equity and Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, I think Anduril, like a bunch of incredible privately held companies that are growing like a weed. Anthropic has grown from$10 billion to$45 billion in annualized revenue just in the last five months. These companies are the next frontier as it relates to the next trillion plus dollar companies on the stock market. But the unfortunate problem is they're all privately held. Anthropic is still private. OpenAI is still private. Anduril is still private. Databricks is still private, which means retail investors can't invest in or buy exposure or get any sort of equity in these businesses easily through the stock market.

35:05Robert Croak:So what happened was Ben Miller came on the show, the CEO of Fundrise, and he took his innovation fund, which is their venture fund. They essentially put it on the stock market, listed it, and then said, now people can buy VCX and get exposure in their portfolios to the underlying equity that the VCX venture portfolio has in these businesses. The problem was it became a meme stock and people all over X and Reddit and Instagram or wherever online, they just bought this up into$500 a share. Ben came on the show and said, listen, the biggest risk to this is that this portfolio has something called a net asset value of about$20 a share at the time of that recording.

35:47Robert Croak:Now, that has changed a little bit and I'll allude to that in a second, but it's worth 20 bucks a share on paper. And that's why they listed it at about$20 a share. But what happened was these retail investors got really excited about owning Anthropic and their portfolios and OpenAI and their brokerage accounts. They just kept buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, and it went up like crazy. And why that's important is because if you think about the math of this stuff, you can go kind of back into, wait a second, Anthropic is now worth this, OpenAI is worth that, and Drill is worth this. I can kind of figure out if I combine them all together here, what's the price tag, that market cap of it all, and how you should think about that, and then back into a stock price.

36:28Robert Croak:Right now, that market cap price tag is somewhere around, I don't know,$80 to$100 a share, because Anthropic is now worth well over$1.5 trillion, and OpenAI is worth over a trillion. So it's a little different than when it listed, but it certainly isn't worth$500 a share, or even at the$200,$300 a share it's worth, it's trading at today. And so to answer your question very, very clearly here, how do we recognize and distinguish between short-term speculative bubbles, like the one that VCX experienced there, and genuine growth potential? It all comes back to those forward expectations that we talked about in this episode.

37:04Robert Croak:So if Wall Street is saying, hey, I think NVIDIA's profits are going to skyrocket, go through the moon, Micron's profits are going to skyrocket, go to the moon and 10x their profits because of all the demand for the data centers, then yeah, fundamentally speaking, if their profits go up by 10x, the stock price is justified to follow it. But on the other side of that token, you can think of an Oracle. Oracle said, hey, we've got these remaining performance obligations of half a trillion dollars. Go put my stock price up to the moon. And so retail investors, boom, that went up like 300 % or something.

37:41Robert Croak:Profits didn't follow. All of that was speculation and Oracle stock price came crashing back down. When a stock price goes vertical, you have to ask yourself, is this justified with fundamental progress? Is cash flow and profits and real money being generated here? Or is it all speculation? Is it not justified because people are just getting excited for whatever reason it might be. And they're just bidding the stock price up or the VCX price or whatever it is up, up, up, up, up. Because that's what happened with VCX and Oracle and a lot of these other names. Retail investors get really excited and they buy, buy, buy without actually seeing profits move up with that excitement.

38:22Robert Croak:So being able to see the difference and figuring out are profits actually moving? If yes, maybe it's justified. If no, be careful. See on the way down.

38:31Austin Hankwitz:What a great breakdown, Austin. I feel like we could just talk about this for hours because because we do live in a hype cycle. Everywhere you turn, something is getting hyped up. I mean, just a couple of weeks ago, Allbirds went from a shoe company that's failing with hundreds of millions in debt to all of a sudden they're an AI company the next day and the stock shot up 40%. That is not what we're trying to do here. We're trying to teach people to avoid those hype cycles and really look at genuine growth potential, like in this question and everything we laid out in this episode, to teach people how to be real investors and not try to gamble on these meme stocks in all of the hype that's out there in the market.

39:11Robert Croak:Yeah, the Allbirds example is a great one because you're totally right. It was trading at$2.50 a share as a failing business. It jumped up to$20 a share, so 10X overnight. And now it's back down to$4 a share. And the reason you saw that up and down is because people speculated. They got excited. They think, oh, it's going to make all this new money. But unless profits or EBITDA or sales or these valuation metrics we just talked about in this episode actually show up, it's all just hype and speculation and bubbles. That's all this is. And before we move on, I just want to add one more thing about VCX, right?

39:50Robert Croak:VCX is this four-year-old fund. It's a venture fund that Fundrise made in 2022. Then they said, let's take our venture fund and list it on the stock market. And so they did that at about$20 a share. And now what investors are doing is they're speculating what 20 % ownership or 22 % ownership of Anthropic or OpenAI or Andrill or Databricks, they're speculating what that ownership actually translates to in market net asset value. And that's why you see wild movements of price between the 20 to 500 to 80 to 275 as markets are trying to figure out, is Anthropic really a 1 trillion company? Or are they a 5 trillion company in disguise?

40:36Robert Croak:Is OpenAI really a 1 trillion company? Or is it a$500 billion company with this lawsuit? I don't know. And so that's why you see crazy volatility in things like this. Now let's jump to our next question coming from Luciano on Instagram. Luciano says, Hello, my name is Luciano. I moved a few years ago to the United States and I found your show and I started listening and it's helped me a lot to understand the U.S. markets. I'm looking for ideas about actions to take to protect my family in case of death. A will, a trust, other actions needed to make sure I leave my loved ones protected and covered.

41:09Robert Croak:Thank you for the amazing show. Robert, this is all you.

41:12Austin Hankwitz:Yeah, Luciano, great question. You should do all of the above because you want to make sure the earlier the better you have any real estate in a holding company through an LLC. You want to make sure you have that trust in place. it's probably going to be a revocable trust, but research irrevocable trust as well, because it's going to depend on what all you hold, what assets and what you're trying to accomplish. And it also depends on do you have siblings that are going to be sharing in these equities and these assets upon passing. So I think you're on the right track. I would engage with an estate attorney to help you figure it all out.

41:50Austin Hankwitz:But to save yourself a lot of money, go in and feed ChatGPT or Gemini, all the information about your situation, your finances, what you own, your investments, and get some details there first, and then go meet with this estate attorney to help you figure it all out and make sure you're covered on all aspects. Because the last thing anyone listening wants to do is leave it up to chance. Because if your property is in your personal name and you pass and it goes into probate, It could take years and a$10 ,000 fee to get through probate and get that to your siblings or your daughter or whoever it may be to protect yourself.

42:28Austin Hankwitz:So always make sure you do these things with the LLCs, the holding company, and possibly a living trust. So all of these are important. Do your research first. You're definitely on the right track and then hire a good estate attorney to get it all dialed in.

42:43Robert Croak:That's great feedback. I think the only thing I will add is the insurance side of it all. If you do not have term life insurance, highly recommend doing that. All term life insurance means is you will have a nest egg to give to your beneficiary to help supplement their lifestyle as they lose your income because you are no longer around. So if you are the breadwinner of the family, you're making$100 ,000 a year, normally about 15 to 20 times annual income is where you should take out coverage on. So about$1.5 to$2 million of a term life insurance policy. It'll cost you less than$30 a month. I think I pay even less than that for a$2 million term life insurance policy that I have right now.

43:25Robert Croak:I got it from assurance.com slash rich habits. Shout out Russ and Robin. They are incredible friends. They created this great term life insurance company, S-U-R-I-A-N-C-E dot com slash rich habits. There's also a link in the show notes below for that. But term life insurance, so, so, so important. They're just brokers. They just connect you with, you know, the ethos of the world and the ladders and all the other different brokers that are out there to sell you term life insurance. So affordable. Skip the whole life insurance. Skip the indexed universal life insurance. It's not worth it. Term life insurance is what you need.

44:00Robert Croak:The other thing I'll add, umbrella insurance. If your net worth, I mean, you just moved to the United States, but maybe you're very wealthy. As your net worth climbs over time, you should have umbrella insurance, which is also very affordable. I think I pay$1 ,000 a year for like a$10 million policy. But having umbrella insurance means that if you got into a, you know, at fault for a tragic car accident or something terrible happened on my boat or, you know, something very, very bad, accidental, but someone is injured or bodily harm or death and I get sued or something happens here. I've got now this sort of extra umbrella up to$10 million that I will be able to lean on as umbrella insurance.

44:43Robert Croak:Robert, how big is your umbrella insurance policy? I have$5 million. $5 million. And it's affordable. It's like under$1 ,000 a year.

44:51Austin Hankwitz:Yep. And I've had it for decades, never had to use it. But I'll tell you what, it is one of the best policies I have to help me sleep at night to know that if somebody does something silly or tries to pierce the corporate veil and come after my personal assets that I'm covered. So that is a great call out that I didn't mention.

45:12Robert Croak:So our last question comes from Justin J on Instagram. Justin says, hey, quick question. I work for Amazon and I'm blessed to receive stocks for the company. I'm 26, married, and I have a child on the way, trying to do my best to continue to invest even with everything going on. I have a salary of$100 ,000 and my wife does not work. I receive restricted stock units from my company and I have 100 of them at the moment. It's worth about$28 ,000 at current market prices. I've got$15 ,000 invested into a brokerage account, mainly in VOO, QQQ, and VTI. My question is, do I sell my RSUs so I can diversify my portfolio better?

45:52Robert Croak:And if I do, how does capital gains taxes work? So love this question, Justin. Glad you're working at Amazon. Congrats on the child. So, so exciting. You have a growing family. You're just, you're doing it, man. That's awesome. In my opinion, I think of RSUs, especially when you're young here and you're still building your base as part of your compensation. So if I were you, I would sell the RSUs, take the$28 ,000, pay your taxes, and then I would dump all that money into my Roth IRA, into the index funds and ETFs we talk about. And then I'd also, whatever's left, make sure that I put that in my brokerage account, my bridge account on public.com.

46:29Robert Croak:I like VOO and QQQ, maybe even add AIQ or VGT or maybe DIA, a couple other ETFs in there for you. But I think until you have that$100 ,000 base built, you should be thinking about your RSUs as a way to just increase your annual compensation, and then take that to begin building your base in a more aggressive manner. And then once your base is built, and you've got 100, 200,$300 ,000 in the markets, then you can say, yeah, I could have$30 ,000 invested in Amazon or 15 ,000. You know, it's only 5 % of my portfolio or 6%, whatever that number is at the time. But the thing you don't want, and I've seen this all the time, is people work at the same company their whole lives.

47:10Robert Croak:And it's a good company like a Johnson and Johnson or a Procter Gamble or a Home Depot. So the stock price has gone up over a long period of time, but their whole nest egg is in the stock. And you get one earnings call that's bad, or you get a CEO departure, or you get one Campbell's Soup hot mic situation, and the stock price goes down by 30 % and your nest egg, you're out$700 ,000 because something out of your control. Now, yes, the S &P 500 could also go down and could also pull you down by$700 ,000. But for the stock market to go down 30%, we need something crazy to happen. For a Campbell's chicken noodle soup to go down by 30 % or an Uber to go down by 30%, you just need one or two weird things to happen in a short period of time and your nest egg is evaporating.

48:02Austin Hankwitz:I love that breakdown, especially because right now his Amazon position through these RSUs is a major part of his net worth. So I love exactly that playbook of what you laid out for this question to really get that base built and move on.

48:17Robert Croak:Yeah. The important thing when it comes here about those taxes too, with these RSUs is because it's like part of your annual compensation, they will be taxed as ordinary income. So don't be thinking 15 or 20 % like flat rate or whatever it might be, I guess 15 % for you because you're under that half a million threshold, you will pay ordinary income tax on this$28 ,000, which is fine. I mean, that's what it is. It just pretty much gave you this money. So just set that aside, do some math, work with Gemini or whatever you talk to here to figure out your tax situation and make sure you've got that money set aside.

48:46Robert Croak:So in April of 2027, wow, 2027, when April 2027 comes along. Reflecting upon 2026 tax year, you're not hit with a$7 ,000 tax bill or whatever it might be for you that's going to surprise you and throw you off your kilter.

49:04Austin Hankwitz:What a great episode, Austin. This was long overdue, breaking all of this down and helping people understand how we do it, the magic behind the curtain to make really good choices with your money and your investment strategies. So I really, really enjoyed this and I hope people do as well.

49:20Robert Croak:Everybody, thanks so for tuning into this week's episode of the rich habits podcast be sure to go check out wallstreet favorites.com we built it it's powerful we believe in it ton of free stuff over there ton of paid stuff over there ton of value regardless of whatever's got going on we love wallstreet favorites.com and we're so proud to have built it for you all and yes go back and listen to this episode again hit the play pause button you know write down the definitions go like do what you got to do to learn from this episode and your homework is to take what you learned and actually apply it.

49:54Robert Croak:Go look at the price to earnings ratio of Apple. Go look at the price to sales ratio of Meta or Amazon and look at the historical averages and see is it trading above or below. Compare it to its peers. Is it overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers in the industry as a whole? Because once you begin to understand these valuation metrics, the stock market becomes this ever evolving, exciting wealth building, you know, mechanism that is just so, so, so intriguing and exciting to learn more about. You've been awakened as Robert and I have both been when it comes to these valuation metrics. We love running numbers and figuring out, is this an opportunity?

50:34Robert Croak:Is Wall Street missing this? Right. It's just it's so much fun.

50:37Austin Hankwitz:Thanks, everyone. And we'll see you on Thursday.

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