Our 2026 predictions for the creator economy

0:00Hi, everyone. This is Scalable, a weekly show about the business of the creator economy.

0:04Jasmine Enberg: I'm Kaya Yurieff. And I'm Jasmine Enberg. Every Thursday, we take you beyond the headlines to tell you what's happening, what it means, and why it matters.

0:29matters. Automated recovery, clean data, a business that keeps moving no matter what hits. One platform, not a patchwork of stitched together tools and gaps. Don't wait for the next attack. Secure and accelerate your business at rubric.com. Again, rubric.com. Here are five predictions for the creator economy in 2026. Instagram pushes into podcasting. TikTok goes big on TVs and micro dramas. Mr. Beast IPOs. LinkedIn launches collab hosts.

1:00Jasmine Enberg: An AI influencer breaks into the mainstream.

1:08Hi, Jasmine. Hey, Kaya. Happy New Year. Happy New Year to you and all of our viewers and listeners. On today's episode, we're going to be looking ahead to 2026 and how we expect the business of the creator economy, social media and tech to evolve this year.

1:25Jasmine Enberg: Predictions are are always the most fun, but also the hardest part about covering the space. And this year really felt especially challenging, I think, because there's just been so much uncertainty and it's been such a tumultuous year. Totally agree, but we got to do it anyway. So to start, you had the very good idea of picking a word that we think will define the year of the creator economy. This is something you've done in past years. So what is yours and what have yours been in the past? So my word for this year is control. For the past couple of years, It's been legitimacy and professionalization.

1:56Jasmine Enberg: So the first was for 2024 and then for 2025. But there's a couple of different reasons why I chose the word control this year. I think part of that is because 2025 has just been such a tumultuous year. We had so much uncertainty in the economy, also with the rise of AI, then with a TikTok ban that wasn't. We're also seeing signs of social media fatigue as well as influencer fatigue. I think part of that has to do with the rise of AI as well as the uncertainty in the economy. But we're seeing platforms start to cater to that, to really recognizing that people want to have a little bit more control, more agency over their digital lives.

2:32Jasmine Enberg: Then on the brand creator front, we're also seeing more signs that brands want to have more control over how they're spending their influencer marketing dollars. Creators also want to have more control over their businesses. They are focused on sustainability over virality, which is incredibly unpredictable. So all of these things really just point to more, you know, focus on kind of control and agency over what's going on within the creator economy. What did you pick, Kai? I know this is the first year you were doing this and I kind of threw it on you last minute. I know you sprung it on me this morning.

3:04You're like, pick a word. I'm like, oh, but I basically picked the first thing that popped in my head because I'm a very like gut reaction, like go with your gut person. So the first thing that popped in my head was focus. So similar vibe to yours. And I think to piggyback off of that, lots of uncertainty, like you said, in the economy, it's still shaky. Money is not going to start suddenly flowing back this year unless you're an AI startup. So I think this is a time when creators and companies really need to focus on their key priorities. I think we're already seeing that energy with Instagram, calling people back to the office five days a week, asking staff to cut down on meetings.

3:37The message is very like, OK, we need to work. And I think a lot of that is coming from the fact that there's just more competition than ever before. And I know we say that every year about the creator economy, but it's true and it gets worse every year. And I think the factors that are exasperating that now is that there's just so much struggle for attention, right? Streaming platforms are competing with social media, competing with creators, and the rise of AI is a big one. And I think AI generated content, we saw it have a huge impact in 2025. It's going to be even bigger this year. So I think this is a year that everyone from creators to brands to platforms need to really hone in on their strategy and focus on the things that will make them stand out and succeed this year.

4:18Jasmine Enberg: So to break all of that down a little bit further and give some specific predictions on what we think might happen in 2026, I think the first one I want to start with kind of piggybacks off of your idea, Kaya, of, you know, figuring out how to stand out amongst, you know, this really crowded space. I think there's a big chance that static content could start to make a comeback in 2026. It really just feels like everything across all types of platforms is just video now. I mean, video podcasts, for example. We're seeing Instagram launching a CTV app. YouTube is a top social and streaming platform.

4:54Jasmine Enberg: And then, of course, we had Sora, which, you know, lets users turn text prompts into videos. I think people are going to want a break. And I think brands and creators are also going to need to figure out a way to break through all of that noise. Another big theme for 2026 is a theme that was big in 2025, which is regulation. Social media bans, you called this last year, Jasmine, were a theme of last year. We had obviously meta antitrust, the TikTok ban that wasn't. But looking ahead to 2026, it's the 30th anniversary of Section 230. So some lawmakers are already preparing new bills to try to overturn and change that.

5:36We are expecting much more regulation, I think, less likely to hit in the US, more so in Europe. Europe has been very trigger happy on the regulation front. You know, there's some murmurs of them following Australia and trying to move to ban social media for teens. So that's something to definitely watch this year. And we also may start to see more AI frameworks and regulation, though, again, And I think I would expect more of that to come out of the EU than the US. But, you know, it's been three years of the AI boom. So we are in that period where we might start seeing some regulation in the US as well.

6:10Jasmine Enberg: So speaking of trends that were big in 2025, that will continue to be big in 2026, AI is one of them. I think in the context of the creator economy, a lot of the concerns that creators had about AI just taking everybody's job have started to fade. there are still some very real concerns around things like copyright infringement, deep fakes, as well as the rise of digital clones and potential misuse of that. What is really interesting to me in all of this, though, is that there's so much ambivalence toward AI, whether that's among regular people, whether it's among creators or brands or the platforms themselves.

6:46Jasmine Enberg: So, for example, you have so many creators that are using AI to streamline their work. You also have a lot of people, you know, who are engaging with content or AI generated content, even when they say they don't like it. One of my favorite examples that I always point to is the Barbie box trend. Basically what happened was, is people were using chat GPT to create AI doll versions of themselves. I was one of them. I posted it just before I went to Cannes. It was just so much fun. And I thought it brought some lighthearted energy into the AI space, which of course is still really scary to a lot of people.

7:18Jasmine Enberg: In terms of a prediction here, I do think that 2026 could be the year that we see an AI influencer kind of break through into the mainstream. We had a couple of examples of this kind of starting to bubble up. There was the AI actress, for example, pretty controversial. And I'm sure it will be controversial if we have an AI social media influencer that really starts to make it big. But I think the other thing to note about this year is that Gen Alpha are actually starting to turn 13. and for them, they're growing up in an AI world and it just isn't as scary as it is for us older generations. Yeah, I think one other thing I would add too is I think, you know, creators have been using AI, you know, in various capacities, but I think the technology has not totally been there.

8:05So I think this might be a breakout year for AI tools for creators. I think the tech is getting better and I think there might be some interesting pivots with AI tools, right? Like, I don't know that AI clones are gonna take off, but maybe some of those companies or those strategies shift to agents and really helping creators with the back end. We've seen kind of some stories of individual creators using AI in different ways to kind of help with their business. But I think we might see that in a bigger way this year.

8:30Jasmine Enberg: Yeah, I mean, I think that's such an interesting point, right? I mean, there is such a mismatch between the AI tools that are out there and what creators actually need, as well as what brands want. I wrote a big report about this earlier this year, and I hear so much buzz, for example, about AI tools that help with brand safety or brand suitability. But that was one of the least important things to a lot of the or to the brands that were in the research that I was conducting. And so I think and this is probably the most overused thing that people say about building AI tools and services. But you have to make sure it actually solves a problem.

9:03Jasmine Enberg: And, you know, perhaps this is the year where we're going to start to see sort of more creator AI startups really take that into account as they're as they're launching new products. Moving on to the investment business front. So our big prediction is that Mr. Beast will IPO in 2026. I think the deal book conversation was kind of an interesting one. It felt like a way for them to sort of test the market, unveil some of the ambitions, confirm their valuation, all that stuff. So that is our big prediction on that front. We're also expecting some big M &A this year and more consolidation. I think that's been the trend over the past few years.

9:45But 2025 was a pretty big year for M &A, but I think bigger players are going to come in. Omnicom potentially could do something post-merger with IPG. Publicis has already acquired so many influencer marketing firms. And then I think all of these moves force the smaller influencer marketing firms to consolidate further as they try to grab more market share. So I think big year for M &A. And I think it's also going to be a big year for these hybrid business models. We started seeing this at the tail end of 2025, including with Scalable and our approach. But I think we will see more people going off on their own, becoming creators, but doing so via interesting partnerships.

10:24I think now there's so much competition. People know the lack of resources. It's also a shaky time, like we said, in the economy where people might feel less emboldened to take that step. So I think what we've done, what others like Alex Heath have done, where it's this hybrid approach of like, okay, Alex Heath, for example, former longtime reporter, doing a newsletter on his own, but then co-hosting a podcast with someone else, which is also part of Vox Media. So I think this is going to be more of the norm in 26, that people are going to go out on their own, but forge these kind of interesting partnerships to make it feel a little more stable.

10:56Jasmine Enberg: So we've already talked in sort of broad strokes about what's going to happen within social media and on the platform. So we have some specific predictions in terms of product releases that we think might happen next year. And so the very first one is that LinkedIn will release collab posts in full transparency. This is very high on our wish list for features from LinkedIn. When we launch Scalable, we would have loved to be able to do a collab post instead of posting separately from our accounts as well as Scalable's account. So LinkedIn, if you're listening, this is what we would like to see you roll out in 2026.

11:34This is sort of cheating because we already published this prediction in a past news that are. But we think Instagram will get into podcasting. They are one of the few social networks that has not and clips are already so popular on Instagram. Threads is dabbling in some podcasting tools, which is their sister company. So we expect something on that front. And we also think TikTok will launch its TV app in 2026. Instagram already launched its TV app very recently. I reported back last summer that both companies were eyeing TV screens. Of course, this feels inevitable as YouTube has pushed so much deeper into the living room and onto the big screen.

12:11So that is my prediction on the TikTok front.

12:13Jasmine Enberg: I think you are spot on there. The other prediction we have for TikTok too is that it's going to go big on micro dramas. People have been writing these off all year, but the numbers don't lie. There is an estimate out that micro dramas could account for about$11 billion in global spending. Now, of course, most of this is coming from China, where micro dramas have been big for a very long time, but we're also seeing them start to gain traction in other parts of the world. TikTok has to be thinking about this. And earlier this month, we saw signs that they are. They released them in TikTok minis and basically allow people to sample a micro drama on the app before they move off platform and actually pay for the service.

12:57Jasmine Enberg: I think we're probably gonna see a bigger push into this next year from TikTok, but maybe also from other apps like Instagram which released its own micro drama series over in India. And the way that this could play out, there's a lot of different variations, but they could start striking deals with individual creators. Dhar Mann, too, said that he was going to be releasing something in the micro drama space or have them just be exclusively on the app. So more to come there, but I think this is going to be a space to watch for sure this year. So finally, influencer marketing. Obviously, it's going to remain a big and growing part of marketing budgets.

13:34but it is a mature market now. So growth is going to be slower. And we think brands are going to be more intentional about how they're spending their dollars.

13:42Jasmine Enberg: Yeah. I mean, I think the days of brands just throwing money at influencer marketing are well over now, right? They want to understand really how those investments are leading to business outcomes. That is a big problem still in influencer marketing. And one that I think is really going to continue into 2026. There's going to be a lot more conversations about measurement. I think we might see some of the groundwork laid out for a better framework for measurement. It's hard to say how much progress we're actually going to make there. I do think one thing we definitely will see is more of an emphasis on performance data over vanity metrics.

14:21Jasmine Enberg: That is going to be welcome news, although I don't think we're ever going to be able to fully get away from vanity metrics because they really are a good way, at least initially, to understand what somebody's audience is, right? I think the other big trend to watch in this space is creator marketplaces. There are so many popping up now. The social platforms, of course, have long had their own, but now Substack has one, Mr. Beast is planning one, and even brands like Lowe's, Kaya, like you mentioned, are launching their own. I don't really have a strong sense of which way this is all going to go yet, but it's definitely, you know, an area that I'm going to be paying a lot of attention to this year.

15:03Thank you everyone for tuning in and we hope you have a great start to the new year. Don't forget to subscribe to Scalable and we will see you here next week.