Micron Earnings In Focus, Inflation Data on Deck

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:17I'm Keith Lansford, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, June 24th. Two events over the next 24 hours or so could have a major impact on stocks and treasuries in coming days following yesterday's tax sell-off. First, memory chip giant Micron, which got hammered Tuesday, losing about 13%, reports quarterly results after today's close. That will be followed by the release of personal consumption expenditures or PCE price data for May at 8.30 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow. A lot will be riding on Micron's results. Any disappointment could trigger another wave of selling in the chip sector, while an upside surprise could draw buyers back into the space.

1:00Micron has helped lead tech to dramatic gain since the company last reported earnings, but its shares have fallen the day after it reported earnings in five of the past six quarters, though past isn't precedent. Trepidation about a possible post-earnings slide could have played into Tuesday's chip sector weakness, though Micron shares surged on Monday. Regardless, it's a volatile stock that's up around 300 % so far this year, even after Tuesday's losses. This means any disappointment, especially in guidance, could trigger heavy selling. The rally was triggered by a shortage of memory chips and heavy data center demand that caused soaring prices for Micron's products.

1:40There's some hope in the analyst community that the shortage might ease next year or the year after. Last time out, Micron reported that revenues nearly tripled in the prior quarter. At the time, Micron said it expected revenue for the quarter now being reported to reach$33.5 billion, up from$9.3 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. That's reminiscent of NVIDIA's surge in revenue three years ago that propelled that stock during the early days of the AI rally. Micron said in March it expected earnings per share of$19.15 for the quarter reports later today. Analysts have now raised their projection for Micron's earnings to$20.72, though there may be whisper numbers above that, meaning that shares may come under pressure even if the company meets that figure, judging by the way other large tech stocks recently reacted to earnings reports.

2:32The ultimate arbiter of Micron shares could be guidance, however. Any sign of the company getting more conservative about the AI demand build-out could hurt the entire tech sector. However, analysts have been raising their price targets for Micron shares recently, citing signs of memory market strength and stronger long-term fundamentals.

2:56For PCE, due at 8.30 a.m. Eastern Time tomorrow, analysts expect headline monthly growth of 0.5 % and annual growth of 4%. Monthly core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3%. Components of last month's producer price index, or PPI, that map over to the May PCE price report, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, suggest a firm print. Only the air transport component declined. Interest rate expectations have flipped since the start of the war in Iran in late February. As of Tuesday afternoon, chances of a rate hike by the Fed's September meeting had risen to 70 percent, while chances of a hike by year-end had reached 86 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

3:43Also at 8.30 a.m. ET tomorrow, first quarter gross domestic product, or GDP, is due. Tomorrow also brings weekly initial jobless claims at 8.30 a.m. Eastern Time, expected to be 225 ,000 in line with recent readings. Treasury yields could be influenced by the inflation and GDP news tomorrow. As of late Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was 4.5 percent, down roughly 10 basis points from its mid-May high. Tuesday's$69 billion auction for two-year Treasury notes attracted slightly above average demand, leading the two-year Treasury yield to sink slightly to end Tuesday at 4.2%. Today features a five-year note auction.

4:26FedEx shares lost more than 3 % Tuesday ahead of its earnings report after the bell, its first after a significant restructuring. The stock fell more than nearly 2 % immediately after the close, despite reporting earnings that beat estimates. Data due today includes May new home sales at 10 a.m. ET. time. They're expected to total a seasonally adjusted annual rate of$627 ,000, up slightly from$622 ,000 in April, according to Briefing.com. New home sales fell 6.2 % in April from the prior month, hurt by rising mortgage rates. Sales were down 11.3 % year-over-year. On Tuesday, both the NASDAQ and S &P 500 index closed sharply lower, while the Dow Jones industrial average fell only slightly.

5:13The selling appeared to lack any single catalyst, and news was light. It looked less like a broad macro panic and more like a crowded leadership group finally getting stress tested after an extended run. It could also represent a reset after a strong AI and memory-led advance. It's not necessarily the start of a full-marked breakdown unless selling broadens. For perspective, keep in mind that even after falling by more than 7 % on Tuesday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, remains well above its 21-day simple moving average. Technically, support for the S &P 500 index begins at the 7 ,370 to 7 ,380 gap-filled area, then 7 ,300 as a psychological level, followed by roughly 7 ,200.

6:03Only five of 11 S &P 500 sectors closed lower Tuesday. Information technology took the biggest hit, falling more than 3 % on the day, while industrials lost about 2%. Consumer staples led gainers, rising nearly 2%. The U.S. dollar index hit a new high for 2026, above 101. Weakness in the Japanese yen, which fell to two-year lows against the dollar, is a tailwind, as are rising chances of at least one Fed rate hike this year. Strength might also reflect risk-off trading that often sends investors into the dollar. Among individual movers Tuesday, chip stocks led the decliners after posting gains on Monday.

6:45Micron and SanDisk both lost about 13 percent. Vertiv Holdings and On Semiconductor both lost about 11 percent, while Western Digital fell more than 8 percent. IBM withstood the early tech meltdown, gaining about 5 % after an upgrade to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase. The analyst cited greater confidence in software acceleration in the second half of the year and said IBM could gain incremental traction as a beneficiary of AI infrastructure. Amazon gained less than 1 % on the first day of its four-day Prime Day event. If Prime Day fizzles, it might hurt other retailers, while strength could provide the retail sector a tailwind.

7:28It's also a possible preview of retail sector earnings that start to filter in next month. SpaceX rose about 1%, but briefly dipped below its post-IPO opening price of$150 after the company raised about$25 billion in debt sales over the past couple of weeks. Carnival shares sank nearly 5 % after reporting revenue that missed expectations and lowering its guidance And Nike fell nearly 2 % after being downgraded by Evercore ISI to in-line from Outperform The company reports next week

8:07The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 45.87 points or 0.09 % Tuesday to 51 ,666.84 The S &P 500 index sank 107.33 points, or 1.44%, to 7 ,365.46. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 579.56 points, or 2.22%, to 25 ,587.04. This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast. To stay informed, visit www.schwab.com slash market update or follow us for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or a review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update tomorrow.

9:04For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.