Trade in Focus Ahead of Next Week's Data, Earnings

0:05Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with a recap of recent news and a look at what's ahead.

0:18I'm Colette O 'Claire, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Friday, July 11th. Investors get a short reprieve today and Monday before earnings and data get rolling with big bank results and June inflation numbers. Stocks wavered Thursday before finishing at new record highs once again, even as the tech sector lost some traction. Today could see investors on edge anticipating trade-related news. Considering all the events ahead, including earnings, the Fed meeting, and what's now an August 1st tariff deadline, the market isn't pricing in much volatility. The 30-day SIBO volatility index, which spans all those events, fell below 16 this week, meaning the market is charging an unusually low price for downside insurance given a still high level of uncertainty.

1:12This could be tested with next week's June inflation and retail sales data. The June Consumer Price Index, or CPI, gets things started early next Tuesday, with current consensus at 0.3 percent month over month for both headline CPI and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both would be up from 0.2 percent in May, so heading the wrong direction for anyone who hopes to see rate cuts. Major indexes had trouble holding on to early gains Thursday after the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite set a new all-time high Wednesday on support from chip stocks. That support withered as the weekend approached amid what appeared to be profit-taking.

1:59Some consolidation is expected during an uptrend, especially given the magnitude of the rally, and it appears that the FOMO-slash-MOMO momentum is still intact for now, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, referring to fear of missing out and momentum. Despite relatively broad breadth, with roughly 73 percent of S &P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average, the market remains top-heavy, Peterson added, reflecting large-cap strength. Technically, we were overbought coming into this week, and we've seen some modest consolidation so far this week as a result, but longer-term and intermediate-term trends are all bullish until proven otherwise, Peterson said.

2:54In corporate news Thursday, Delta Airlines earnings yesterday lifted spirits, especially among airline shares. The company's second quarter earnings of$2.10 per share were four cents above the average Wall Street estimate, while revenue of$15.51 billion exceeded the fact-set consensus of$15.46 billion. Perhaps more importantly, Delta's guidance for the third quarter and full fiscal year were in line with analysts' estimates. This came after Delta pulled guidance the previous quarter, citing tariff uncertainty. In an interview with CNBC after the results, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said fall bookings look strong and he's optimistic about corporate travel.

3:40No major earnings are out today or Monday, but a host of results come at investors starting next Tuesday, as many big banks report. Other major firms on tap next week include 3M, United Airlines, and Johnson & Johnson. Stay tuned later today for FactSet's final earnings estimates before the season unofficially begins. Analysts recently expected about 5 % second quarter earnings improvement year over year, well below the roughly 13 % achieved in the first quarter. One thing to monitor as earnings proceed is the rate of beats by revenue versus earnings. Though only a handful of S &P companies have shared second quarter results to date, they tended to beat estimates more on the revenue side than the earnings side.

4:29This could be a sign that margins are getting hurt by tariffs. On the sector scorecard Thursday, a healthy mix took the top positions including consumer discretionary, utilities, health care, real estate, and industrials. Most sectors finished green, but the usual suspects, tech and communication services, both ended slightly down. It's only one day and follows tech's rally Wednesday, but could provide more evidence of investors looking beyond the mega caps. Seasonally, however, the market is at record highs, approaching what traditionally are some of the weakest months of the year, though past isn't precedent.

5:12Over the last month, Infotech holds a solid lead, but energy, industrials, materials, and financials, known as cyclical sectors that tend to reflect economic trends, are right at its heels. And although the rally is being led by tech, almost 75 percent of S &P 500 stocks traded above their respective 50-day moving averages as of late Thursday. That said, Nvidia's market capitalization alone counts for more than 7 % of the S &P 500's value and is now on its own worth more than the combined value of the Canadian and Mexican stock markets, Reuters noted. Nvidia set another new high yesterday and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced about 0.7%.

6:00Tesla rose more than 4 % as Reuters reported the company seeks approval for Robotaxi service in Arizona. In other corporate news, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump Thursday before Huang heads to China, Bloomberg reported, but the subject of the meeting wasn't immediately known. Huang has been a vocal opponent of U.S. chip trade restrictions that prevent sales of many chips to China and which he thinks could give Chinese rivals an unfair advantage. NVIDIA expects to lose about$8 billion this quarter alone in sales to China. Speaking of China, investors await Beijing's June export and import data late Sunday U.S.

6:47time, an important metric considering the drumbeat of tariffs. Analysts expect both to rise solidly. In data yesterday, initial jobless claims of 227 ,000 released yesterday, where 8 ,000 below the Bloomberg consensus and likely another strike against a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Continuing claims, which measure how hard it is to find work, rose 10 ,000 to 1.965 million, still near three-year highs. Turning to fixed income, investors appeared relieved late this week by decent demand for Wednesday's 10-year note auctioned by the U.S. Treasury. The benchmark 10-year yield, which had climbed steadily over the previous week, rose one basis point Thursday, but at 4.35 percent remained well below its highs from Monday.

7:41A 30-year bond auction Thursday saw decent demand, according to Briefing.com, but long-term Treasury auctions aren't on the calendar next week. The trend suggests that yields for intermediate to long-term bonds likely will stay elevated even if inflation comes down, Schwab's fixed income experts said in a recent analysis. Investors likely will demand a larger risk premium to hold long-term debt versus holding a series of short-term T-bills or notes. This risk premium, or term premium, already has been rising and could continue to move higher. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday the Fed should continue reducing the size of its balance sheet and that the Fed funds rate is too restrictive and could be cut as soon as the Fed meeting later this month.

8:34However, he admitted he's in the minority among his colleagues in terms of a July cut. The Fed's been shrinking its balance sheet for three years to fight inflation, but that remains well above pre-pandemic levels after expanding massively during that period. Chances of a July rate cut were around 7 percent late Thursday, and odds of at least one cut by September are 68 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 192.34 points Thursday, or 0.43 percent, to 44 ,650.64. The S &P 500 index gained 17.20 points or 0.27 percent to 6 ,280.46. And the Nasdaq Composite climbed 19.33 points or 0.09 percent to 20 ,630.67.

9:37This has been the Schwab Market Update Podcast. To stay informed, visit schwab.com slash market update or follow for free in your favorite podcasting app. And if you like what you've heard, please consider leaving us a rating or review. It really helps new listeners find the show. Join us for another update Monday.

10:04For important disclosures, see the show notes and schwab.com slash market update podcast.