In short
The economics of the Super Bowl and other major live sports events, focusing on broadcast/streaming scale, ad pricing, and why viewership numbers are confusing or misleading. Dan argues advertisers and broadcasters “aren’t telling you” what’s actually being measured, how streaming differs from TV, and how that affects ROI claims.
Guest backgrounds
Dan Rayburn is a sports media/streaming analyst and podcaster who does an annual real-time Super Bowl live reaction/live stream.
Key claims
Super Bowl TV viewership is ~127.7M (Nielsen, last year) and it’s the most expensive ad inventory; streaming is a smaller share (~10%). Streaming metrics are inconsistent (AMA vs unique viewers vs engagement; simultaneous streams vs “average minute audience”), often mixing platforms (TV, NFL Plus, apps). Advertisers rarely challenge measurement publicly. Streamers inflate comparability by redefining metrics (e.g., Netflix ad-tier “monthly active viewers” defined as watching at least one minute of ads). Nielsen remains dominant because alternatives struggled.
Notable examples
Fox/Tubi free streaming last year vs this year’s firewall; YouTube NFL numbers later corrected by ~2M; NBC “4K all day” as upscaled 1080p; Thursday Night Football on Amazon where “viewer” counting is unclear; Peacock’s NFL/NBA losses (Q4 -$552M) and Netflix stating live NFL doesn’t drive subscriptions.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOSuper Bowl Anticipation
0:46 to 3:08
Discussion about the upcoming Super Bowl and its significance.
“You know, when the time this podcast comes out, we'll be 48 hours away from the next Super Bowl.”
Broadcast Scale of the Super Bowl
3:09 to 4:35
Dan Rayburn discusses the scale of the Super Bowl from a broadcasting perspective.
“So Dan, I think one of the things we want to talk about today is we sort of alluded to it.”
Production Costs and Accessibility
4:36 to 6:27
Exploration of production costs associated with the Super Bowl and its accessibility for viewers.
“And it dwarfs any other thing out there.”
Super Bowl Streaming Options
6:28 to 8:00
Dan explains the streaming options available for watching the Super Bowl.
“So from that perspective, are you anticipating there's any, I don't want to say problems with that, but just in terms of a viewership accessibility, do you think that there's any problems to see with that?”
Challenges in Streaming Metrics
8:01 to 12:17
Discussion on the challenges of measuring streaming audience metrics compared to traditional TV.
“It'll be NFL Plus, NFL Digital Properties, outside the US as well, Game Pass, which is DAZN.”
Advertising and Viewership Standards
12:18 to 14:01
Dan emphasizes the role of advertising in shaping metrics and standards for viewership.
“We've heard Netflix say that a couple of times.”
The Evolution of TV Viewership
14:01 to 14:58
Discover how the definition of TV viewership has expanded in the streaming era.
“So what these services, sports leagues, and broadcasters are trying to do is really get an entire encompass viewership from every single device possible.”
Advertising's Role in Broadcast Measurements
14:59 to 17:30
Learn how advertising drives the need for accurate viewership metrics in streaming.
“The larger audience they can show, the more they can charge for advertising.”
The Challenges of Measurement Accuracy
17:31 to 20:28
Understand the complexities and lack of transparency in current viewership measurement.
“think how many advertisers know that there's a bunch of fraud taking place with the ads they're buying.”
The Inadequacy of Current Metrics
20:29 to 23:04
Explore how legacy metrics fail to accurately reflect viewing trends and behaviors.
“And I asked Mayer when he presented that at the NAB Streaming Summit why he did that, and his answer was great.”
Show all 20 chapters
NFL Streaming Performance Insights
23:05 to 28:00
Examine how NFL streaming deals affect subscriber growth and financial performance.
“You know, it was Amazon with Thursday Night Football.”
The Complexity of Streaming Costs
28:00 to 29:10
Explore the challenges faced by streaming services in achieving profitability amidst rising costs and competition.
“Now, at the same time, though, they also had a price increase of$3.”
Evaluating Long-term Streaming Deals
29:10 to 30:30
Understand how long-term contracts affect financial assessments for streaming platforms and sports rights.
“How quickly can we make a judgment as to whether that investment in rights has actually paid off?”
The Uncertainty of Viewership Metrics
30:30 to 33:22
Learn about the challenges in measuring success and viewership in the streaming sports landscape.
“But they at least did provide us some numbers what that was supposed to be.”
Advertising's Growing Role in Streaming
33:22 to 34:31
Discover how advertising revenue is changing the dynamics of streaming services and their business models.
“fair way to compare one event to another.”
Engagement Metrics and Viewer Retention
34:31 to 37:12
Dive into how streaming platforms define engagement and its impact on viewer retention and ad revenue.
“They're doing an 8 to 12 reverse stock split, which is going to happen in Q1.”
The Evolution of Streaming Quality Perceptions
37:12 to 42:07
Examine how consumer preferences have shifted regarding content quality and the implications for streaming services.
“How does that compare to those other numbers that might indicate growth if the actual engagement isn't necessarily matching those same levels?”
The Challenge of Viewer Engagement in a Crowded Market
42:07 to 43:51
Learn about the difficulties of capturing viewer attention in today's media landscape.
“And it's probably exacerbated even further now just because of the proliferation of YouTube and other social video platforms where there's even more content than ever that everyone's competing with.”
Super Bowl and International Sports Viewership
43:52 to 47:20
Explore the viewership dynamics of major sporting events like the Super Bowl and World Cup.
“Well, one of the things we're going to talk about today, Dan, and we've got a few more minutes to kind of get into this is, yes, we're talking about the Super Bowl.”
Insights and Predictions for the Upcoming Super Bowl
47:21 to 49:18
Get insights into the Super Bowl's streaming potential and audience expectations.
“what I'm seeing, I'm also pushing out numbers that people are giving me on the back end of what's actually going on.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:07Nick Meacham:Hello, everyone. Welcome back to the next episode of Streamtime Sports. My name is Chris Stone, the community lead joined as always by our CEO, Nick Meacham. Now, Nick, today we have a special guest. It is actually a former guest. And I had a quick check just to confirm my numbers, Nick. Nick, his interview that we did with him on our last time we had him is the second most viewed, second most listened to podcast in Streamtime history. Some may ask, Nick, why didn't we bring him back sooner then?
0:33Chris Stone:I think I'm going to ask that question as well. I didn't realize it was that high. But well overdue by the sounds of it.
0:39Nick Meacham:And yes, so today we have Dan Rayburn. Dan, it is a pleasure to have you back and it's a good time to be speaking with you. I know you mentioned just off air that it's a bit of a tall task for you, but one of your big annual pieces is you live stream or I should say live react to the Super Bowl in real time. You know, when the time this podcast comes out, we'll be 48 hours away from the next Super Bowl. So it's a really good time to have you back on, Dan. Hey, guys. Appreciate being back here. Yeah, Super Bowl. You know, it's an interesting event for our industry because all the broadcasters tend to try and rule out something a little bit different and supposedly be the first or claim all kinds of crazy things and press releases.
1:18But the bottom line is it's a great event for consumers.
1:21Nick Meacham:As a football fan, as soon as the Bengals were knocked out of contention, I'm just going to let everybody know that I hate watch the NFL playoffs. So what I mean by that is I want the team to win that will have the least amount of impact on Joe Burrow's legacy. So what I mean by that is I needed Josh Allen to not win because if he did win, that would put him on a different pedestal to Joe. So, you know, I'm probably rooting for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks because if the Seahawks win, no one's putting Sam Darnold in the top five. Wow. OK, serious watcher here. I could care less either way.
1:51Chris Stone:It doesn't matter to me. I gotta say um I'm someone that follows the NFL but not nowhere near the same level that you do Chris I have to say I was quite shocked with the end result and who the matchup is and I'm going to be on holidays on a ski holiday when the Super Bowl is happening I'm going to try and work out if it's going to be viable that I'm going to try and watch a bit of it or I'm just going to give up this year and uh put turn the phone on silent and check out the result later on once I've crashed into some skiers on the way down my first ski run. It's great for the NFL, though, because you have New England, big viewership, Seattle, still large viewership on the team, East Coast, West Coast.
2:31So from a viewership standpoint, the NFL is definitely happy.
2:33Nick Meacham:I know, at least as a neutral, it is nice to see some new teams in there. I mean, I think I saw a statistic. It's the first time, and this is a cheap way of throwing the Bengals. It's like the first time since 2017 that an AFC team hasn't been the Bengals or the Chiefs, something like that ridiculous. So I think it is nice to have a little bit of new blood, although I say new blood as if they didn't have their own long-running consecutive streak in Super Bowls between Belichick and Brady.
2:58Chris Stone:Well, I've seen a lot of those Patriot fans are now flying high now across all my social media channels after not hearing from them for a number of years. But yeah, let's jump into things.
3:08Nick Meacham:Yeah. So Dan, I think one of the things we want to talk about today is we sort of alluded to it. There's a lot of big, bold statements that come before and particularly after Super Bowls about the success that they've had for whatever different reasons, whether that's, you know, viewership, you know, money made on commercials, all those sorts of things. But for you, Dan, maybe just to give our audience some perspective, you know, for those that maybe aren't from the U.S., I mean, they'll be aware that the Super Bowls, you know, the big tentpole moment in U.S. sports. But can you just perhaps frame the scale and just a little bit of context as to how big the event actually is from a broadcast perspective?
3:42Yeah, sure. So So broadcast perspective, I forget how many years the Super Bowl's been broadcast. Streaming perspective, this will mark the 15th year that it's being simulcast online streaming. As far as total TV history, last year's Super Bowl was an estimated 127.7 million viewers. Those numbers come from Nielsen. And of course, that's across everything you can possibly think of as far as viewership, TV, streaming, whatnot. not. So it's definitely the largest event out there as far as TV viewership in the U.S. From a streaming standpoint, it isn't. But as we know, too, just in terms of what advertisers talk about and what they're paying per 30 seconds, 60 seconds for ads, it's the most expensive ad spot out there as well.
4:30I forget what they're going for this year. But it is the largest event that we have from a broadcast TV viewership every single year. And it dwarfs any other thing out there.
4:40Nick Meacham:It is funny. I get a lot of Brits that are always like, oh, there's too many commercials. And I was like, if you went to a high school football game, the football game's actually really quick. I was like, if you could sell a 30-second TV ad for like$4 million, whatever they're selling it for, you'd have a hell of a lot of commercials too. That's the issue is the cost to produce a Super Bowl is so high. And the amount of cameras that they have there is just so large that production value is super, super good. And it's incredible how much they do. You know, Super Bowl this year, I'll have 80 cameras, 150 microphones.
5:13Just think of the cost of all that. And that's really what it comes down to is the cost to produce it is high.
5:18Chris Stone:The cost, and surely even with all the technology we have today, the manpower needed to control and manage 80 different cameras running at the same time, it must be a heck of a production. It is. It's absolutely amazing to see. and just the process that all these companies put in place, the broadcasters behind the scenes to make this all happen. And, you know, Disney's already planning now for the Super Bowl for 2027. And that's what it takes. At the same time, you know, this year you've got NBC Sports. They obviously know what they're doing. They're producing sports events all over the world.
5:52They're doing the Olympics at the same time, plus the NBA games they now have for Peacock. So I expect it'll be a flawless event unless there's some sort of unfortunate technology mishap, which happens, we're talking about the internet, unless something like that one-off happens, I expect it'll be a very good game as far as the streaming quality produced, just like Fox did last year.
6:13Nick Meacham:And on that front, you know, last year was a bit unique where there was to be, you know, an ability to watch for free on the streaming service. My understanding is this year is that that's not the case. There's not necessarily going to be a quote-unquote free way to watch the Super Bowl. where you're either going to have to have a cable subscription or you're going to have to have a Peacock subscription. So from that perspective, are you anticipating there's any, I don't want to say problems with that, but just in terms of a viewership accessibility, do you think that there's any problems to see with that?
6:42I don't. We've had, again, across 15 years of Super Bowl streaming, we've had a lot of them where it's been you have to authenticate with a paid TV provider to get the stream or you have to have the streaming service. It's been behind what we'd call the firewall. You mentioned last year, Fox Sports, it was free. You didn't have to authenticate. Plus Tubi, it was free. This year, it's not. I don't see that as an issue. The vast majority of people are watching on TV. If we look at the number I gave out before of 127 million and think, okay, well, Tubi had 15.5 million AMA, that means streaming accounted for roughly 10 % of total viewership.
7:20The number's actually not that big when compared to TV. So no, I don't think there's an issue. So I'd be more concerned if, for instance, Peacock was a streaming service that just rolled out brand new three months ago, and now they were doing the Super Bowl. But they've obviously tested everything. They're ready to go with people signing up. So I don't expect any problems outside of something across the internet that they can't control.
7:43Chris Stone:Dan, do you have any sense of, from what I understand, the Super Bowl will be still available on NFL Plus as well and on the Game Pass product internationally? Is that correct? And if so, do you have any idea on like the, I'm guessing it's a very marginal number of people watching you through those types of services? Correct. It'll be over the air. It'll be NFL Plus, NFL Digital Properties, outside the US as well, Game Pass, which is DAZN. Except there's a few countries where DAZN doesn't have the rights to it. We never get the actual breakdown. NFL has never pushed out ever publicly what the audience is for NFL Plus or even how many subscribers they have.
8:23and that's part of the problem we don't at the end of the day we don't have a true breakdown of all the different platforms but to your point nick it's it's small overall so why is what do i do i
8:33Chris Stone:not open that pandora i'm gonna hold on that pandora's box uh okay i know what you're gonna
8:37Nick Meacham:ask but okay let's do it no let's do it because i was going to change topics i want you to go there
8:43Chris Stone:nick okay well i was just curious there from your point of view and i know you're you're very vocal on this so why is there still such cloak and dagger around some of these numbers why do whether it's the NFL, the major streamers, why have we still got to this situation where the marketplace therefore, I feel like the lack of certainty in the numbers that we see day to day, this creates uncertainty in the way people act and react in the marketplace. It just creates an environment and a culture that is hindering the industry. What's your view and why is it still like it is today? So let's just take a step back here.
9:19One of the biggest problems we have in the industry is comparing streaming, which is a technology, to broadcast TV. And everybody's comparing, you know, YouTube to Netflix, right? So they're comparing different types of content, live or on demand, short form versus long form, mobile to desktop to TV. Streaming is just a technology. It's a distribution platform. The problem we have is that people are comparing apples to oranges. and people in our industry over the last, I'd say, two or three years, it's gotten just absolutely terrible where I see a post every day in LinkedIn that's wrong. People just don't know how to read press releases.
9:58It's that simple. There's a difference between simultaneous streams, concurrent devices, average minute audience, unique viewers, and many of the services that publish numbers after the fact use different terminology and different methodology. And then you have Nielsen who puts out one type of report based on the data. VideoAmp might do another. Adobe might do another. Then you have first-party data from the actual streamer. It's all different methodology, and a lot of it cannot be compared. And that's the big problem that we have. We don't know what the average viewing time is for the Super Bowl or any other streaming service.
10:43Afterwards, words, we'll get a here's the AMA, average minute audience. But that doesn't tell us how long somebody actually watched. That doesn't tell us that that person is unique. So it's interesting, 15 years ago in the industry, after a live event, the numbers that were put out by the broadcaster, the streaming service was simultaneous streams. That was the number we used. That was the methodology, I should say, that we used. And it was great because we know what a simultaneous stream means. And yes, you could have somebody like me who's running six or eight simultaneous streams in the house as I'm doing testing for the Super Bowl across two or three different ISPs in the home, but that's not the average person.
11:22So when you did simultaneous streams, you really knew exactly how many were watching. Today, it's so vague of what's put out. And then when they do push it out, it's also not streaming only. So analysts in our space who do a terrible job just reading a press release, even after the Super Bowl or Netflix NFL games on Christmas, notice they didn't say streaming viewers. They said average minute audience because even Netflix doesn't break out what percentage of viewers for the NFL games were just streaming. Because Nick, to your point, it includes over the air. It includes NFL Plus. It includes NFL digital platforms.
12:04It includes all these other services. So we just don't know the numbers and why the companies do it. Part of that is they just don't truly want to put out the number, right? Just proprietary. Sometimes we'll say something like, you know, we just we don't want competitors to know how well it's really doing. We've heard Netflix say that a couple of times. But the real problem here is part of it is just how you actually do the measurement. Okay. YouTube, when they did their exclusive NFL game, you know, they came out with numbers. And then a couple of days later, they said, oops, they were wrong.
12:35It was actually two more million viewers than we realized. This is YouTube. You're the largest company in the world outside of Netflix for video, or you might be larger than them if we're just talking total bits delivered. And this is off of their own first party data and the numbers off by 2 million. That's a big deal.
12:51Nick Meacham:When I sold that announcement - And I covered that story.
12:54Chris Stone:Yeah, yeah. I remember hearing that announcement and it raised a lot of flags with me as to what is going on here, particularly that what I understood is that was their case or not their case, but more what some of the thinking was why the numbers were off is they were trying to take some sort of hybrid approach of measurement alongside to try and be more like the way Nielsen does it. Can you shed any, have you got any take on that, Dan, as to why they were so far off? the numbers that they shared? I can't go into detail on that. I had a conversation with them afterwards off the record, which it'll have to stay.
13:29I would just say that what is the root cause of all this? The root cause of all this is all the streamers want to have as large an audience measured as possible because of the advertising revenue. And they're trying to make it look like TV when it isn't. We know what TV is. There's a standard. There's a standard quality. when when you and i turn on the same channel make if you lived in the u.s and you were watching this football game and chris was watching in a different state me in a different state we all turn on fox we're all getting the same quality on tv it doesn't matter where we are streaming is completely different and what you're watching it on is it is it mobile ipad desktop remember two nielsen was only measuring things on you know tied to the tv for a long time they weren't doing other devices that you could get streaming on.
14:18So what these services, sports leagues, and broadcasters are trying to do is really get an entire encompass viewership from every single device possible. And I will agree with them. That's much harder to do compared to just measuring a TV viewership. But even today, the industry wants to argue every single day about what TV is. Who cares? TV is wherever anybody consumes video. That's the reality of it. You go where the consumer is. Now, what classifies, quote, TV quality video? That's a whole separate conversation we don't need to get into because that's just each person's opinion of what's considered quality versus not.
14:58But the reason they're doing this, let's get down to it, the root cause is advertising. The larger audience they can show, the more they can charge for advertising. And that's why they're trying to show larger numbers and encompass viewership across every device possible.
15:12Chris Stone:And that makes sense to draw and drive advertising revenue. But from my perspective, what I don't understand, and Dan, maybe you have some view on this or have heard more from the streamers you're speaking with, is how much do the advertisers care about what we just discussed? Are they all they're looking for is the biggest number possible to put in their proverbial budgets and plans to show ROI? Or are they at a point they're really pushing back on the streamers to sort out this predicament of the ratings mess that it is today? That's a great question. And that's the question that should really be discussed openly in the industry, which it's not.
15:49It depends on the advertiser you talk to or the agency that's buying the ads for the advertiser. Right now, there are people arguing in the space, and rightfully so. oh, should we care about viewership or should we care about engagement? We should care about engagement. Well, define engagement. Well, that's measured multiple different ways either. With viewership, if we're looking at just the number of, say, AMA, that's great. But I always go back to the exact same example, which Nielsen won't give an answer to, which I've been saying for years, which is Thursday Night Football, Amazon Prime Video.
16:20You go to Amazon.com. The video for the game loads in the upper right-hand corner. Now, if I don't click on it, I don't engage with it, and I leave within seven seconds, am I counted as a viewer? I don't know. You know what? No one else knows either because Nielsen won't say. When I ask Amazon, they're like, well, ask Nielsen. And Nielsen's like, stop asking us. Nielsen's just annoyed at me at this point and, you know, probably two years ago sent an email saying, stop sending any emails to us. Because I keep asking. But you also notice this is a company that everybody is using for measurement.
16:55When was the last time either of you guys saw Nielsen on stage at any event speaking? You haven't. The reason is because they don't want to be on stage because they're going to get hard questions asked to them like, can you define what exactly you mean in your methodology where it says this word? No, they don't want to. So the problem that we have here is we don't truly know what's being measured or how it's being measured. And advertisers are not very vocal in the industry. They're only vocal behind closed doors, which doesn't help any of us. It doesn't help the industry move forward. It doesn't help us from an analyst standpoint.
17:29I look at it, Nick, almost like when you ask that question, think how many advertisers know that there's a bunch of fraud taking place with the ads they're buying. And they're like, hey, you guys should crack down on the fraud. But I also hear advertisers go, well, we assume 10 % or 12 % of everything we're buying is fraud. Just like if you opened a physical store, you know that theft is going to be part of doing business. which is just an absolute terrible answer to the question, but it's just the reality of the business that we're in. I just want accuracy. That's all I want. I want accuracy.
Read the full transcript
18:06And let's just use the example of NBC puts out a press release for the Super Bowl. What do they call it? They call it 4K all day. NBC and Peacock will be 4K all day for Super Bowl. Well, it's upscaled 1080p to 4K HDR. So is it 4K to consumers? Yes, because they don't know what upscaling is. But is it actually native 4K? No, I don't think the term should be used. But everybody determines differently what terms they use in the industry.
18:40Chris Stone:Lots of smoke and mirrors going on all over the place, which doesn't help anyone. I remember seeing, I can't remember what social media platform it was, but someone started to launch. They changed their metrics to zero second views, I think, wasn't it? that they did for their content. So you didn't have to watch it for a second to get counted as views, but just to beef up the numbers so people were happier with the amount of people getting across their content. Well, Netflix has done that too. Look, they just changed their methodology for on demand. Or not just on demand. They changed their methodology when it came to how much time you have to watch in any given month.
19:17You have Tubi, whose monthly MAUs, monthly average users, their metric used to be you had to open your app just once that month. You didn't even have to stream anything. You just have to open it. You're considered an MAU. So that's the other interesting thing is when you read the SEC filings, when you did 10 queues, that's where all the good information is. It's not in the press release. And many of these services actually used to break out in the SEC filing their definition of MAU. Almost none do that anymore. Once Tubi got acquired, it's no longer included. Fox no longer discloses methodology.
19:52And then when I ask, I'm told, well, we'll tell you, but we'll only tell you off the record. You're not allowed to publish it. And that's just silly to me, right? This should be about educating the industry. But this is something that everyone does. All the services have. Fox is the only company, broadcaster, I should say, that we've seen in 15 years of the Super Bowl, who last year disclosed publicly stats tied to the stream that No other broadcaster had ever historically released. CDN capacity, rebuffering rate, video startup times, what percentage of viewership was in upscaled 4K. And I asked Mayer when he presented that at the NAB Streaming Summit why he did that, and his answer was great.
20:37He said, well, we want to share more information with the industry, and if we share it this year, we're hoping that whoever does the Super Bowl next year, meaning this year with NBC, they'll share it themselves, And we'll just keep doing that and more information will get out. And that's what we really need in the industry.
20:54Chris Stone:A hundred percent. One final question before Chris, we move on, is that Nielsen have obviously been this bedrock of the ratings world for however long it is now. Why is it that they are still the central source with all of this stuff? Is it just because the legacy of their OTA, basically the way they've been doing ratings for so long? or why hasn't someone else been able to come and cut their grass, so to speak? It's a great question. And Nielsen should not be the default platform for a lot of the broadcasters out there, except that some of the other vendors who tried to replace them, VideoAmp, there's a bunch of others legacy-wise, unfortunately struggled with their business.
21:34And Nielsen's an interesting one here because if you look at what they're doing, there's all these reports. And even in the last month or two, public broadcasters and streamers who come out and say, Nielsen, your data is bad. Your methodology is wrong. Your viewership doesn't match what we have. And then you see all these closed door meetings that broadcasters and sports leagues are having with them. And yet, then these companies still sign up for Nielsen. So I push back on the broadcasters and the streaming. You're complaining about Nielsen publicly, but you're still signing large contracts to use them.
22:09stop using them however they say they can't and that advertisers need data from a third party which to me is a shame because i would rather trust netflix and their data when they're the one streaming it across their platform using their player or their app they know better what's going on than nielsen does but they will always say all these streamers that advertisers want a third party. So it's a shame somebody hasn't replaced Nielsen out there as the default metric. Now, outside the US, Nielsen doesn't have as much exposure. You'll notice Adobe's used a lot more or it's just first party data.
22:52But yeah, the only reason they haven't been replaced is because other vendors have stumbled. VideoAmp was really trying and then VideoAmp had some issues with their business over the last couple of years and had to do a lot of layoffs and then different rounds and then they went through multiple management teams as we've seen many companies do but but that's the only reason Nielsen hasn't been replaced fair well we've talked about the
23:14Nick Meacham:Super Bowl but given it's the end of the season there's also time to recap the NFL itself and you know it's seemingly every year you know Nick and I are always amazed we're like well the NFL has wrapped up its meteorites deal but some way somehow it always manages to find a new package of games to sell somebody. You know, it was Amazon with Thursday Night Football. Then it was Peacock. Then Netflix got a bit of a Christmas deal. And they seem to keep being able to splice up new media packages for new streaming partners. What have you seen on the performance of some of those streaming partners that they do have in comparison to maybe some of the broadcasts?
23:49Nick Meacham:I know we've talked about apples and oranges and things like that. But just general take from your side how some of those bespoke packages are performing from a streaming-only perspective. So one thing we don't know from any of these streaming services is they don't talk about churn across their platforms publicly. So we don't know how much sports. Everyone says, well, you have to have sports in order to sign up new users and keep them. We don't know that. We say that because it sounds cool. It sounds good, but we don't actually know that. NBC's 20th season of Sunday Night Football, that was this year, had a streaming average minute audience of 2.5 million viewers.
24:26Now, 2.5 million, people are probably going, hey, that's a great number for Peacock. Hold up. That's Peacock, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app, NFL Digital Properties over the year. So how many is actually that on Peacock? We don't know. They don't break it out. My guess is call it 2 million, 1.8. So what does that mean? Total viewership. If you then look at the number that's put out for a game, it means viewership is less than 10 % tied to streaming. Now, 10 out of 100 is a low number. It's a small number. I don't view that as that's not good or not successful. We know that the vast majority of NFL games are watched on TV.
25:07It's the reality of it. When it's an exclusive NFL game, people are forced to go streaming. but what we don't know is what the impact is to this game on the bottom line. And it's interesting to see Peacock just had earnings, what was it, yesterday? No, sorry, last week. In Q4, Peacock lost$552 million. Now, that's up from$372 million in the quarter. Now, why did they say they lost more money? The exclusive NFL game that they had rights to and the NBA. So what we don't truly know publicly, and companies, executives will talk about this privately off the record, is the true impact of these games on subscription services.
25:52Can they get a bump? Yes. Is it long term? It doesn't appear to be at this point. and you and I as fans across pretty much every sport out there except for something like Major League Soccer where all the rights are in one place with Apple it's extremely fragmented but when you actually go and break down these numbers most in our industry would not know if you ask them what Peacock averages for NFL for streaming you know I bet you they would be like oh it's got to be five seven eight million well it's two million or less and that number is directly from NBC Sports. Now, I'm going to give NBC Sports a shout out here because they are the only broadcaster to break out any viewership tied to streaming throughout the season.
26:36Fox doesn't. Nothing. They don't give out a single piece of information. Disney, nothing. So when Disney puts out, here's how many we got for an NFL game. Yeah. What percentage was on ESPN? Well, we don't say. They don't even mention ESPN director, ESPN Plus. Every once in a while in the release, it'll say okay, highest viewership ever on ESPN+. Okay, what was the number? Well, we can't tell you. So keep in mind that the companies know these numbers, but the vast majority of us publicly don't. And then when companies are willing to share them, they're only willing to share them on background, but you can't publish them anywhere.
27:10Chris Stone:I saw those Comcast numbers as well, Dan, and I was quite shocked at how much money they had lost and how much that had increased from year on year. I'm curious, do you have any insight as to, you talked about the fact they referenced the NBA and the NFL deal as impacting the cost, which makes sense. But is that cost being absorbed at a different time to when they're able to generate the revenue to offset that investment? And is that why the costs are so pronounced in those financial earnings? Yeah, great question. And so even though the deal with the NBA was cut whenever it was right a year ago for those rights, it didn't actually hit the balance sheet until they started streaming it, which was last quarter.
27:57That's when the NBA came to Peacock. So we all expected that their losses would be higher in Q4 simply because their costs went up. Now, at the same time, though, they also had a price increase of$3. So I was thinking, OK, we know your costs are going up because of NBA and NFL in that quarter, but you're also charging$3 more per month. And hopefully you're going to gain more subs, which they did, a couple million more. I forget the exact number. And yet their losses were still higher. So it's a tricky business. I'm not here to say that this is easy to do. Remember, just Disney alone lost more than$10 billion before they got to profitability for their direct-to-consumer streaming service.
28:44Now, note I said direct-to-consumer. I did not say Disney Plus because it's direct-to-consumer for Disney who now breaks out streaming revenue completely separate. But the cost to bring these services to market and to get to profitability is huge. And Peacock is the one that still has not yet gotten to profitability.
29:03Chris Stone:In that Comcast example, again, the cost of those rights that they've acquired, they come and hit the balance sheet when they did. How quickly can we make a judgment as to whether that investment in rights has actually paid off? Because in the NBA's instance, they're holding those rights for a number of years. do get this initial hit to the bottom line and then would you expect it to improve over the coming quarters or actually we get a pretty good sense from day one given the the increase in the uh the cost per month for the number of subscribers how good a feel should we know if they've they've made the right decision i don't think i don't think we can know that i was i was just gonna add to that
29:45Nick Meacham:dan nick and i uh in a recent recording talked about the introduction officially of ufc on paramount and sort of the question was is if you were paramount based on the numbers that they put out again to your point they they listed out a few different stats dan these some of them i don't always know what they mean but like you know i asked take the question you know if you were paramount you know seven years seven billion dollars if that was the the first fight you had how are you feeling about that because we but we broke down some of the numbers in terms of they've got the two tier subscriptions and you know they're going to be the advertising money's gonna have to make up the difference because you know we've seen pay-per-view can far surpass that But I think the point Nick and I made is not every fight is necessarily a big fight.
30:22Nick Meacham:So it might work out for the UFC. But whether or not that is going to work out for Paramount, just sort of some of the numbers that they try to put out. Because, again, they said single largest streaming event in Paramount Plus history. But they at least did provide us some numbers what that was supposed to be. True. So you're both asking the right question, which is how do we judge the success of these events on the balance sheet of these companies? And we can't in the short term. There's no way. these deals are too long we don't know what the ad revenue is we don't know what the potential ad revenue share split is in the case of the ufc it made a lot more sense they'll make more money than they were with with amazon with uh disney because you had to be an esp espn plus subscriber just to have the ability to get to pay-per-view and i'm not going to go into numbers here but i know a lot of the pay-per-view numbers for those ufc fights and they were not large you had some that were large what paramount here is what they're getting is in this deal sorry ufc with paramount is getting guaranteed revenue they're getting more exposure in the industry globally with a lot more consumers than they're reaching an espn i think it's an extremely smart deal by the ufc i think it makes sense now paramount are you going to get your money's worth it's too early to know and i don't even think you could look at this over a year or two because to chris's point the contract is so long how is this going to build subscribers over time how many new subscribers do you get more importantly how many do you keep how many people stay on the platform as a result what is the ad revenue you can you can sell they're making strategic long-term guesses educated guesses on the business and what that content USC means for Paramount.
32:08But we can't judge this, Nick, to your question. It's far too early. The NBA deal with Peacock is extremely long as well. There's a lot of money tied up. And frankly, we're never going to really be able to understand the impact of the bottom line because they're not going to give us those details. And just look at the Apple deal with MLS. I mean, Apple and MLS did that deal and everyone talked about, oh my God, this is just, you know, incredible. And then what happened a couple of years later, meaning last year? Well, they restructured the deal because it didn't quite work for either side the way they
32:42Nick Meacham:thought it was going to. So part of the problem here is it's too early. And then part of the problem is we just don't have the data. You know, I talk about how good NBC Sports is in terms of putting out viewership numbers for Peacock, but for their exclusive NFL game on December 27th, they never put out numbers. They never published them. Now, Nielsen put out numbers with an AMA number of 9.72 million. But NBC Sports chose not to put out any press release for that one game, which is the only NFL game I can find that they've never published stats on. So that's part of the issue we have too, is sometimes we get stats, sometimes we don't.
33:21And we don't have a fair way to compare one event to another. And then with sports, we also have to add in And part of the Super Bowl or pick whatever game you want is based on who the teams are. If they're not major market teams, that's going to impact viewership as well. So, man, you know, we could talk all day about this stuff because there's so many moving pieces and complexity. But, Nick, you asked the right question, which is these are businesses. What's the impact of the bottom line? That's what we should be caring about as an industry. And right now, it's just too early to know.
33:55Chris Stone:One of the things that's been coming up a lot, and particularly there's a lot of excitement, sorry, excitement, that might sound too big a word, a lot of cautious optimism, let's say, around the growth of advertising outside the US in terms of its impact on live sports revenue streams and the fact that streamers especially are now diversifying the way they're monetizing their streams, not just being a subscription-only product. just wondering what you're seeing there Dan in terms of some of the existing and the major streamers who have a hybrid approach in place with both subscription and advertising revenues driving the bulk of their monetization of those rights are you seeing advertising becoming a bigger share of that revenue for each of the streamers or is it staying fairly stable still obviously Netflix has only really made this move I don't even know a couple years ago at best when they started to lead into advertising but are you seeing that pick up pick up pace or just steadily growth great question we are and i say we are because we actually have some numbers so some of the streamers actually break out in their quarterly earnings what percentage of revenue for their streaming platform came from subscription versus advertising some break that out others don't so we we don't know others will just say it's growing but we don't actually have a percentage or a share.
35:17But some of them actually break out. Here's the actual revenue we got. For instance, Fubo does that. They did earnings this morning. They're doing an 8 to 12 reverse stock split, which is going to happen in Q1. Interesting to see their earnings. So some of these, we know exactly what they're doing in ad revenue. We can see how that's growing over time and how it relates to the overall percentage of the revenue they're getting from streaming from subscription. Others don't disclose it at all or really mention it. The other thing that's a little hard to compare there is when we're doing streaming on demand, advertising is extremely targeted.
35:56When we're doing it for live, it's not because dynamic ad insertion is not being done at scale for live events. First time it was ever done in scale in the industry was Netflix, Christmas, NFL. And that's a big deal because if you can do that down more to a local level, targeted advertising, you're going to get a higher CPM. That's where the industry is going. We also have to look at, again, doing a fair apples to apples comparison. People will say, well, look at how much revenue has grown for ads on this platform now versus two years ago. Yeah, but also they've doubled the ad load. That's something people don't like talking about.
36:33But Like when you're doubling the ad load from when the service launched, okay, are you actually making more money as far as advertising? Or are you just inserting more ads so you're making more money? So these are all the little things that you really have to know in the industry and you have to compare and you have to read SEC filings and you have to think about what was the ad load when they launched. And we've seen ad load go up from Max, Peacock, Prime Video. We've seen them go up from just about every streamer out there. And, of course, that impacts the number from ad revenue as well.
37:03Nick Meacham:I'm just going to bring up a point again. I'm just going to keep rehashing stuff because I want to get second opinions on you. Nick and I spoke about Netflix. As you mentioned, they had their Q4 reports, and I think they talked about$1.5 billion from ad revenue. And the spokesperson gave a large credit to that to the live sports they were showing because as we talked about at the top of the show, the NFL and sports, or some sports I should say, maybe not the Premier League, are really geared towards advertising. but then what nick kind of called out is that's one statistic to show this you know nice growth in subscriber numbers nice growth in um ad revenue but then nick also points out that there was was it a decrease nick or a very marginal increase in terms of actual um watch time where it was like it was interesting that some numbers grew up with the actual gate yeah and just dan from your side kind of your thoughts on you know the netflix stat that hey they great they gained subscribers They made a bunch of ad revenue.
37:56Nick Meacham:But on the other side, they're not actually keeping users on board for a longer period of time, especially if you're thinking of the NFL, you're talking three and a half, four hours of a live event's not necessarily increasing the viewership time. How does that compare to those other numbers that might indicate growth if the actual engagement isn't necessarily matching those same levels? Well, we don't know across any of the platforms because we don't know how they're defining engagement. We have no idea. Now, Netflix has a new metric they call monthly active viewers for its ad-supported tier.
38:30So it's counting people who watch at least one minute of ads monthly, then multiplying by estimated household size to show total on-the-couch reach, as they call it. And that's replacing their older account-focused metrics like MAU. Now, it makes sense because you also have Netflix accounts that can add a second user to the account, but that's not actually considered a second subscription. Netflix makes that very clear. So they're trying to give advertisers a fuller picture of who's seeing ads. I think that absolutely makes sense for sure. But you're only talking about they have to watch one minute per month.
39:09So we just don't know engagement. And it's fascinating when we talk about Netflix and NFL because people run around going, okay, well, Netflix, it's only a matter of time before they get an entire season. They do all these NFL games and this and that, but Netflix has also been very vocal in their earnings, just as they were again, that viewership alive on their platform is less than 1%. They said also that live streaming events, that's not driving subscriptions. And Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters said bidding on an entire NFL season, NFL games, doesn't make sense for the company because he said, and this is important quote Netflix doesn't have a way to figure out that math end quote to know if spending so much money to season NFL games would make sense I mean he's literally come out and said we don't know how to do the math and the methodology to figure out is that beneficial to our bottom line if we spend billions of dollars on an NFL season that is an absolute fascinating statement to hear from Netflix because it makes you wonder, well, what's the math that the others are using if Netflix doesn't know?
40:23Now, at the same time, we know Netflix is not a broadcaster. And NBC, Fox, and CBS are making their money on broadcast TV. But let's say they weren't broadcasters. Would they get NFL streaming games? Could they afford to? It's an interesting way to look at the business. And that's part of the issue is last year, many listeners won't know this, Mark, 30 years since streaming technology was first invented. 30 years. We are really just now, 30 years later, as an industry, figuring out business models, bundling, aggregation, what consumers are willing to pay, how often prices can go up, what consumers want to watch, how they want to watch it, the device they want to watch it on.
41:13Remember years ago, we were all talking about 4K. Well, I should say the industry was. And everyone was saying things were going to go to 4K. Almost nothing's in 4K. Why? Consumers aren't willing to pay more for it. And the services started charging more for 4K access, the majority of them, and consumers weren't going for it. What is the number one plan that consumers are signing up for on Netflix where it's offered? The ad tier. Well, the ad tier doesn't come with 4K. So the industry also, it's interesting to see it shift. It was always about quality, quality, quality. Consumers want quality.
41:47They'll pay for quality. Wrong. Consumers want a great experience. It's easy to use. It's reliable. That looks great based on how they define quality. So these are all the things that 30 years later, really the industry is just starting to figure out how to package, price, productize, market, and sell services.
42:07Chris Stone:And it's probably exacerbated even further now just because of the proliferation of YouTube and other social video platforms where there's even more content than ever that everyone's competing with. That ability to cut through is harder than it's ever going to be and it's not going to get any easier. No, it's not. And to your point, every service out there is competing on our time, our eyeballs. We only have so much time in the day to watch, listen, read. That's reality. What bothers me, Nick, is how you have Nielsen pushing out stats and numbers where they're comparing a 20 second reel or a 20 second TikTok to, you know, Netflix, which doesn't have 20 second pieces of content.
42:46And I thought that was real interesting what BBC came out and said recently when all this talk about BBC and YouTube and Nielsen and how things were being measured. And, you know, BBC came out and said, we view engagement as you have to watch for at least 10 minutes. So why are we being compared to a 20 second TikTok? That's exactly the right thing to say. And yet, when you look at the information Nielsen puts out, they're comparing a lot of different types of video content at different formats and different lengths and suggesting that viewership is higher for one service than another. It shouldn't be compared.
43:23We should have a baseline minimum in the industry that if you're going to compare streaming services, you have to watch for X minutes of time. That doesn't mean that's engagement because others might define engagement differently. But we don't even know, again, how Nielsen defines an average minute audience. Do I watch for 10 seconds or two minutes? I don't know. And when Netflix's own definition is one minute a month, that really tells us where we're at in an industry from a measurement standpoint. We have a long way to go.
43:52Nick Meacham:Well, one of the things we're going to talk about today, Dan, and we've got a few more minutes to kind of get into this is, yes, we're talking about the Super Bowl. because it's coming, but also the Winter Olympics is coming. As of recording this, I believe they kick off in 24 hours or 48 hours. It's very close. So the Winter Olympics, obviously going to be a tentpole moment. In the summer, we've got, you know, Super Bowl is the biggest event for the U.S. The World Cup is the biggest event for the world. You know, maybe the U.S. isn't going to be as good as I thought they'd be when I made some bets about what we would do in 2026.
44:21Nick Meacham:But I'm getting the impression from you that this is not something that's just limited to the NFL. oh, this is, you know, we're seeing similar issues with other major events with the Olympics, the World Cup. This isn't even necessarily just a U.S.-centric problem. You know, this is something that is broader globally. Correct. It is. I think what people don't understand because I understand that consumers don't get what viewership is in these events. Who's reading a Nielsen press release as a consumer? Nobody. But in our industry, what frustrates me is you talk about how these posts I see wrong on LinkedIn every single day talking about how big the World Cup is going to be and it's going to break records and like the streaming audience.
44:59Why are we debating this? Fox pushed out numbers in 2022. The average minute audience for FIFA World Cup was 1.28 million viewers, 1.28 million in the U.S. That number is from Fox directly. So suggesting that this is going to be some sort of record breaking, you know internet's gonna melt down what are they talking about it's it's not based on any actual facts if we look at fifa 2022 viewership around the world bbc had just under 19 million viewers on tv uh japan versus costa rica had 36.3 million if you look at what happened around the world, Korea, 11 and a half million. Spain versus Germany had 12 million.
45:48Mexico, in Mexico versus Argentina, they had 20.9 million. In France, TF1 had almost 12 million. This is all TV. The numbers are huge. We know the World Cup is huge, but in streaming, it's actually extremely small. And that's part of the problem we have in the industry is people just throw out like, oh my god world cup gigantic well tv absolutely no question hands down huge streaming it's actually not that large at all um take any other event out there major league soccer take the f1 deal with apple we have the stats from espn for f1 the largest race ever is 1.6 million that's it now i'm not suggesting 1.6 million is bad it's f1 it's a targeted audience but the world cup is actually not a very large event when it comes to streaming.
46:38Fox is doing it this year. It'll be upscaled 4K, won't be native 4K. Olympics is, because of the time zone and just how many events you well know they have over a period of long period of time, the Olympics has never done more than a couple million, a handful, under 5 million of simultaneous streams in terms of AMA simultaneous streams. So the Olympics overall, there's a ton of viewership on demand, but actual streaming live, of live streams. It's actually really small. So I'm just always trying to reinforce on LinkedIn and everywhere else, just if we're going to have a conversation about the industry, we have to start with facts.
47:15You know, numbers don't lie. Numbers matter. So that's why I'm always trying to point out all these numbers. And that's why every year during the Super Bowl, when I'm live blogging, what I'm seeing, I'm also pushing out numbers that people are giving me on the back end of what's actually going on. And that always makes streaming the Super Bowl every year for me interesting. More work than I ever want to do, but it makes it interesting just because of what changes year over year and then what I'm measuring on what device over what period of time.
47:44Nick Meacham:Well, Dan, as you mentioned, we could easily talk for at length about some of these things, but we do appreciate you taking the time also as well because I recognize you just came back from a trip quite exhausted. So to squeeze this in before we get out, something before the Super Bowl is really appreciated. And I think next time we'll try to not wait so long between your next appearance coming back on Stream Time. I appreciate being here today. You know, obviously I listen to you guys all the time and being a fellow podcaster, you know, I appreciate the work you guys put into the podcast because it's not easy.
48:14People don't realize doing a podcast every single week what it takes and having to record it, produce it, figure out what you're going to talk about, what news of the week is most relevant. You know, I'm covering news across the entire streaming stack. Man, you guys are just in the sports realm. But every day, it seems like there's 10 things that come out that you could talk about and you have to have focused every every week on what it is. And it's incredible. If we think about the podcast across our industry, there's actually very few. there's literally a handful of people doing podcasts dedicated to streaming as opposed to say larger media entertainment movies publishing because of the work that's required but you you basically have picked the right niche because you're going to have enough content to talk about every week for the rest of your lives um with what's going on with sports and with all the deals being cut and you know the future you're going to be talking more clearly about aggregation and distribution and packaging of content, not just the right side.
49:15And the Super Bowl is definitely an interesting one. It's one the industry will watch. If people want to see what I'm blogging about during the Super Bowl, you can go to superbowlstreaming.com. Yes, I don't know how I have that domain, but I still have it. That'll take you to the post on my blog every year where I do the Super Bowl. People can put in comments during the Super Bowl and I'll actually answer questions of what I'm seeing on the technical side. I talk to ISPs in the US. They actually dump me data as well. I also do, just so everybody knows, I do work with the broadcaster every year who's doing this for free.
49:46And I dump them Charles Lods and other things I'm seeing of like, hey, here's what I'm seeing on this device, on this ISP. I have multiple ISPs in the same house, same location across multiple devices. So it's something I take seriously. It's a cool thing for the industry. Super Bowl, I'm excited for it. I think it'll go well but you know afterwards i'm sure you guys will have plenty to talk about with with the numbers or uh lack of numbers that will be put out yeah thank you so much dan and for everyone
50:14Chris Stone:listening make sure you follow dan rabin on linkedin especially and his blog as well particularly over the super bowl and of course the dan rabin podcast is a great lesson as well so make sure you sign up to that but dan thanks very much for joining us and i look forward to catching up again soon thanks guys
50:34Thank you.
From the publisher
The Super Bowl represents the biggest event in sports. Streaming expert Dan Rayburn joins co-hosts Nick Meacham and Chris Stone on this episode of StreamTime Sports to break down the real story behind Super Bowl streaming — the numbers, the myths, and why the industry keeps getting measurement wrong.
Key Points:
- How big is the Super Bowl really from a broadcast and streaming perspective?
- Can the industry realistically compare streaming vs. TV when methodologies differ across every platform?
- Why do broadcasters continue using inflated or inconsistent streaming metrics?
- What are the data points we should be asking for?
- Do the economics of live sports work for streaming platforms?
To follow Dan Rayburn's live Super Bowl stream review please visit http://www.superbowlstreaming.com/
