947: How to Get Hired at Top Firms like Netflix and Spotify, with Jeff Li

9 Dec 2025 · 1 h 10 min · 25 chapters

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In short

Jeff Li (Netflix) discusses how to get hired at top firms and how forecasting/AI systems work at scale, focusing on time-series forecasting, pitfalls, and when “sexy” models or agents are actually useful. He also covers his past startup yourmove.ai and lessons about AI automation requiring human mastery.

Guest backgrounds

Jeff Li is a senior data scientist at Netflix; previously a data science manager at Spotify and a machine learning engineer at DoorDash. He specializes in forecasting, experimentation, and causal modeling. He also co-founded yourmove.ai (over 10,000 users), an AI-assisted dating profile/texting app.

Key claims

For scale, shift from hacky “zero-to-one” building to reusable frameworks with robust MLOps (auditing/alerting, naming conventions). Forecasting pitfalls: don’t random-split time series; use expanding/sliding windows. Stakeholders often need interpretability, so simple models (additive/GLM) can beat opaque foundation models. LLM “agents” often become effectively Python scripts when you need determinism; automation fails without domain mastery. In dating, AI can help ideas but can’t fully replace human voice; AI-generated photos can hurt.

Notable examples

Spotify’s podcast ad business built from scratch; forecasting at Netflix with large budgets; using ARIMA/exponential smoothing and Prophet; testing time-series foundation models (e.g., Chronos, TimesFM) that didn’t beat internal baselines; DoorDash “briefcase technique” sending a detailed pain-points solution doc to a hiring manager; yourmove.ai using GPT-2-era message/profile help and earlier photo-based models.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Jeff Li's Data Science Journey

0:45 to 2:11

Jeff discusses his early exploration into data science and his experience with the podcast.

“I've heard about Super Data Science since I literally started data science.”

Transitioning to Data Science at Scale

2:11 to 3:39

Jeff contrasts the approach to data science from startup environments to large companies like Spotify and Netflix.

“So, I mean, initially we were gonna start off what we did in algorithms course.”

Building for Scale vs. Startup

3:39 to 5:21

Discussion on the differences in mindset and practices when building data science solutions at scale versus in startups.

“What's like being a practitioner at that scale?”

Podcast Hosting Evolution

5:21 to 7:25

Jon shares the challenges and decisions made regarding the podcast's hosting platform.

“to going zero to one i like that i gotta say the spotify ad thing that you built from scratch that is, I can't remember exactly, but about a year ago, we were looking at, so we ran into a problem.”

Spotify's Podcast Business Strategy

7:25 to 8:57

Jeff elaborates on Spotify's strategy in acquiring podcast-related businesses and owning the value chain.

“I didn't know that it was another business that had been acquired.”

Forecasting in Data Science

8:57 to 11:10

Jeff explains the concept of forecasting in data science and its relation to time series analysis.

“Anyway, let's talk kind of more about the data science sides of this.”

Common Pitfalls in Forecasting

11:10 to 14:03

Discussion on the technical and practical pitfalls data scientists face when working with forecasting.

“So the ARIMA one, that's one that I'm familiar with from my trading days.”

Forecasting Techniques in Time Series Analysis

14:03 to 17:26

Explore effective forecasting methods and the role of ensembles in data science.

“it'll make a prediction and we don't really know why it made a prediction.”

The Importance of Train-Test Splits and Explainability

18:01 to 24:16

Understand the nuances of train-test splits and the need for model explainability.

“Yeah, and I suspect that in the future is just going to be like bigger ensembles with more approaches in them.”

Strategies for Getting Hired at Top Tech Firms

24:16 to 28:02

Discover effective strategies to increase your chances of getting hired at major tech companies.

“Those are probably some of the companies that people most want to get into.”
Show all 25 chapters

Strategies for Job Applications

28:02 to 30:16

Learn effective strategies for tailoring your job applications to stand out.

“Nobody has been sending me these big, like these are your pain points.”

Finding the Perfect Partner with YourMove.ai

30:16 to 30:51

Discover how the startup YourMove.ai enhances dating profiles and messaging.

“And then also too, it's like, do you have a unique intersection of skills that is hard for the person to hire for?”

The Evolution of Dating Technology

30:51 to 34:33

Explore the impact of AI on dating apps and user experiences.

“So switching gears now from finding the perfect job to finding the perfect partner.”

Shifts in Dating Culture Post-Pandemic

34:33 to 39:22

Understand the trends in dating and the preference for in-person connections.

“It is interesting that I was reading actually just yesterday at the time of recording that a lot of the big dating apps, which saw surges in their share price in the U.S.”

The Importance of Mastery Before Automation

39:22 to 41:42

Learn why having mastery in a process is crucial before automating it.

“which maybe some of our technical listeners are like, get back to some data and AI stuff more explicitly.”

The Intersection of Ads and AI

41:42 to 42:00

Discover the challenges of creating effective ads without creative experience.

“that it's better to like know how to do the workflow manually first and know that you can get a good result and then you can automate it.”

The Challenge of Creative Experience

42:00 to 43:19

Explore the limitations of experience in creative roles and the nuances of working in advertising.

“that allowed you to have such a specialized niche and to get hired at Netflix after trying multiple times.”

Understanding Agents in AI

43:20 to 45:55

Delve into the concept of agents in AI, their potential, challenges, and deterministic workflows.

“I think it was a little too condescending and scathing.”

Context Engineering and Monorepos

45:56 to 47:23

Learn about context engineering and the advantages of using monolithic repositories for AI projects.

“something that's very trendy these days is context engineering.”

Exploring Personal AI Tech Stack

47:24 to 49:42

A look into personal AI tools used by Jeff Li, including Whisperflow and other AI models.

“split out different kinds of functionalities or use cases into different repos.”

Challenges in Image Generation Tools

49:43 to 56:00

Discuss the challenges of using AI image generation tools and the importance of accuracy in outputs.

“because I'm actually, I swear pretty liberally in my day-to-day life.”

Exploring AI Tools for Creative Projects

56:00 to 57:36

Learn about various AI tools used for creative projects, their functionalities, and the importance of experimentation.

“I think it actually, yeah, it was in Gemini that I had the frustrating experience where I just couldn't get it to spell this word accelerate correctly.”

Mental Models for Decision Making

57:36 to 59:30

Discover how mental models can aid in making better life decisions and optimizing personal experiences.

“So I've found that they have pretty good front ends.”

Insights from 'Unleash the Power Within'

59:30 to 1:02:49

Hear about the impact of Tony Robbins' book and the value of attending his events for personal growth.

“So I think like I kind of like use mental models and life principles kind of in conjunction with each other.”

Where to Follow Jeff Li

1:02:49 to 1:05:12

Find out how to stay updated with Jeff Li's work and insights in the tech and data fields.

“I did the unleash the power within like a few years ago.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Jon Krohn:Welcome to another episode of the Super Data Science Podcast. I'm your host, Jon Krohn. I'm joined today by an outstanding guest, Jeff Li. He's a senior data scientist at Netflix, previously of Spotify and DoorDash. He goes into a tremendous amount of detail on what it's like to be working as a data scientist and a machine learning engineer at these top companies, working at huge scales on problems like forecasting with budgets of hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in play. It's a really great episode. I think you're going to enjoy it. This episode of Super Data Science is made possible by ARIA, Dell, Intel, Fabi, and Anthropic.

0:39Jon Krohn:Jeff, welcome to the Super Data Science Podcast. It's such a treat to have you here. How are you doing, man? I'm doing good. Yeah, thanks for having me. I've heard about Super Data Science since I literally started data science. I saw it on Udemy like eight years ago. So yeah, Yeah. Glad to be here. Nice. Yeah. Shout out to Kirill Arimenko, the founder of the super data science company and this podcast. It sounds like you might've even, I think you've been aware of the podcast since back when he was hosting many years ago. Yeah. Yeah. I heard about it. Well, I remember when I was first trying to get into data science, I was on Udemy and I was like browsing courses and I saw super data science there.

1:15And then, yeah, it's always kind of peripherally, peripherally, you know, I've been aware of it. So yeah.

1:20Jon Krohn:What were you doing at that time that you were doing that exploration? So this was before I even, I was in consulting and I was trying to decide if I, what to do next, because I hated consulting. It's pretty much why consultants end up doing that too, right? You're like, well, I don't really exactly know what to do. So let's work like at a bunch of different companies on a bunch of different problems. Exactly. Yeah. And then you realize that like, it's not for you and everyone kind of realizes that. And then kind of have to pick something and then commit to it for a period of time. And then I was browsing a bunch of Udemy courses.

1:53I remember there was like the super data science, like A to Z.

1:58Jon Krohn:Machine learning A to Z. Machine learning A to Z. And I remember I like bought it for like 10 bucks or something from some Udemy sale. And I kind of used that as one of the resources to help me start, kickstart my data science journey. Nice. And now actually like coming full circle, you and another famous content creator, Kenji, you've been creating courses that take a little play on that name, like machine learning process A to Z is one of your courses, for example. Yeah, yeah, that's right. So, I mean, initially we were gonna start off what we did in algorithms course. And then I told Ken, I was like, hey, like, honestly, like when I'm working day to day, the algorithms don't really matter that much.

2:36It's like your end-to-end process of like scoping the problem, getting the right data, making sure you're actually solving the right problem. That end-to-end process, I find it's more important. And if you get that right, you can kind of like plug and play many different algorithms thousands of people have bought that

2:51Jon Krohn:course i think it's data science 365 365 365. yeah yeah 365 data science should be easy to find yeah we'll be sure to include that in the show notes but this has been a little bit of a tangent i didn't mean to get talking about yeah the podcast and all things a to z i wanted to talk about where you are today so yeah you are a senior data scientist at netflix a former data science manager at spotify and a machine learning engineer at doordash previously as well in those roles you specialized in forecasting, experimentation, causal modeling. And I think something that's really interesting about what you've been doing is the scale at which you've been operating.

3:27Jon Krohn:So Spotify, for example, it's an over$100 million a year ad business. Netflix has a billion dollars supply and demand forecasting. So how is data science different at that kind of scale? What's like being a practitioner at that scale? Yeah. So I could probably actually contrast it with zero to one because I've like at Spotify, we started zero to one jumpstarting the podcast business. And, you know, you kind of have to scale it from zero to one. So I would say like the mindset when you are say a startup, you're going zero to one is you need to be quick, you need to be hacky and you need to be able to move fast and be nimble to feedback.

4:08So like in that kind of phase, what you usually do is you are building things quickly. You're hacking things together. You're not doing things that are very efficient. So you're actually not like picking at the small details of like, how is your model version? You know, how is your model named? What's the schema? It's actually like writing to, you know, how are you serving the models online? You're just trying to do that as fast as you can, versus when you're doing it at scale, you're trying to think about, you're thinking less about being really hacky and like hacking things together. You're thinking more about how can I do this once and reuse this multiple times over and over again.

4:48So at that level, you know, you start to need much more robust, say like naming conventions, you need much more robust, repeatable frameworks. And you need to say, like, say model ops like you need auditing or alerting for say your models you know a lot of times for one model you might build it once and you might have to rebuild it each time if you're being hacky if you need to build it for scale you ideally want to build it once and then like you get the benefit across all your models so that's really kind of the the mindset shift from from building for scale

5:21Jon Krohn:to going zero to one i like that i gotta say the spotify ad thing that you built from scratch that is, I can't remember exactly, but about a year ago, we were looking at, so we ran into a problem. We used to host this podcast on SoundCloud. So when Kirill founded the show 10 years ago, it was on SoundCloud and that worked. There actually were some cool things about SoundCloud. So for example, people could, it was public, how many downloads every episode was getting. And that looked great. It made it so that if somebody looked up Super Data Science Podcast, you could see, wow, there's all these downloads.

5:58Jon Krohn:It's a pretty popular show. Maybe I should accept the invitation to be on it or whatever. And so one of the weird things about the podcast world, really outside of SoundCloud, is that there's very little visibility into downloads. You know, like on YouTube, you see views, but how many times has somebody downloaded a podcast episode on Spotify or Apple Music? It's kind of hard to tell. so that's actually that's about the only thing that we lost by moving away from soundcloud but we had to move away from soundcloud because they only support uh 500 episodes you can actually have more than them in soundcloud but they won't push those to like apple music or spotify or whatever and so now that we're at almost a thousand episodes that's a problem when half our catalog isn't available so a year ago the point that i'm getting to here is that we did a comprehensive search of where should we be hosting our show?

6:51Jon Krohn:What's the best platform? And it was an absolute no-brainer at the end of this months of analysis with Spotify Megaphone, which is the, yeah, it's a great platform. If anybody's thinking about getting into podcasting, I definitely recommend starting with that platform for, you know, for publishing, for, you know, if you're going to have advertising within your podcast, it's by far the best tool out there so nice work yeah yeah when i was at spotify i remember we were we bought megaphone and it was a huge purchase because podcast was a big place yeah like i see like spotify was just when i joined there was the big deals with joe rogan caller daddy and then spotify wanted to own that value chain from having the biggest hosts but also getting to like smaller scale creators so the megaphone and also the anchor play was to own that kind of entire value chain.

7:45So yeah.

7:45Jon Krohn:I didn't know that it was another business that had been acquired. So yeah, it was acquired. So then how did that, so the kind of the ad business was something that was created from scratch before the megaphone acquisition. Yeah, yeah. So when to talk through the podcast business, yeah, basically there's like kind of different segments of podcasts. So like there's the really big names like Joe Rogan, Caller Daddy. Those were like exclusive deals with Spotify. So it's in the news. It's like, you know,$100 million deals, podcast deal with Rogan. That's kind of the big names that the bet was to kind of get users onto the platform because they'd want to listen exclusively to this show.

8:30And then Megaphone was kind of this enterprise, you know, medium-sized, you know, podcasts that, you know, were pretty established. They had audiences, but they weren't as big of a name. And then there's also the anchor, which were kind of the smaller scale, like, hey, I'm an individual podcaster at home and I want to, yeah, like start creating a podcast. So you can like do that immediately through the tool. So that was really the play just to kind of own that whole value chain.

8:54Jon Krohn:Yeah. They've done a great job. It is a very cool platform. Anyway, let's talk kind of more about the data science sides of this. So in particular, let's talk about forecasting. So yeah, tell us about what that means. I mean, it's presumably something it's about trying to predict something in the future. So it's kind of like a time series analysis, I suppose. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I guess like at a really simple level, it's we're just making a prediction about the future from the dimension of time. So I think anybody who's studying ML, you know, you're learning all these core ML techniques, all these core ML techniques apply, but it's just, we're just like using a different type of data.

9:39And naturally, because there's auto correlation within the data that you kind of require some slightly different models, slightly different approaches, but at its core, a lot of time series models are basically linear regression models, but like, you know, with, with certain unique characteristics to the linear regression model.

9:57Jon Krohn:So yeah, so auto correlation there, meaning that the data are correlated with themselves over time. So for example, if you think about like stock prices over time, the best predictor probably of what the stock price is today is what the stock price was yesterday. Exactly. And so there's that inbuilt correlation, that auto correlation, self correlation in the data. What kinds of tools do you need to apply to handle that? Yeah, so I mean, it's for to build these models, the common models you'll learn in textbooks are like ARIMA models. You'll use like exponential smoothing models. A common popular one is profit.

10:37But I think, you know, AI is like a big hot topic right now and transformers and LSTMs. You, in theory, can use those kind of models to actually for time series data. because for LLMs, you're basically looking at, say, tokens, and you're trying to predict the next token. Time series is actually very similar. You're trying to take the current time unit and predict the next time unit. So there is kind of like a proliferation of foundation models for time series, but they're definitely not as hot as the language models right now.

11:09Jon Krohn:Right, so to break down some of those terms. So the ARIMA one, that's one that I'm familiar with from my trading days. so it's A-R-I-M-A very common statistical approach to handling this autocorrelation you also mentioned their profit and so that's like guru as opposed to profit margin it's like a profit like being able to see the future and so that's a tool originally out of Facebook it came out of meta Facebook book, the crux of the model is it's kind of an additive model where you break the time series into like seasonality. So that's like, you know, if there's like a weekly bump or like a monthly bump or yearly bump, you break it down into a trend.

11:57So you basically take the trend plus the seasonality and trend is just the direction in which the time series is moving. So it's really kind of just taking the time series, decomposing it into two pieces, two or three pieces, which is trend seasonality and error the error term so yeah yeah it made a big splash when it came out

12:14Jon Krohn:and i think sean taylor was one of the key people behind developing it and he's been on the show um i'll be sure to include that episode in the show notes for people who want more on that yeah um profit tool all right so when you're doing forecasting i mean this could be at the kind of scale that you're doing forecasting at or maybe it's just forecasting in general what are the kinds of pitfalls that people run into? Like what are the tricky parts about getting forecasting right? So I can give two answers here. One from a technical perspective and one just from a general approach perspective. So I think common pitfall with forecasting is because time series data, the order actually matters.

12:57Like, you know, a common rookie mistake is to actually split the data doing like a random split. Like a train test split. Yeah. Yeah. Like it's easy to miss that, but you do, you definitely do not want to do that because that kind of ruins the, uh, the kind of time series dependent aspect of it. But I think actually at a higher level from, from my experience, at least I've found that the biggest pitfall in business is, is that people want to use very complex techniques for time series problems. So like, it's fun to use LSTM is fun to try to like use transformers for your time series data. But what I found is that a lot of stakeholders who use the forecast, they really want to know why we are making this prediction and what assumptions are going into that prediction.

13:45So that's why univariate time series models and, say, simple additive models or GLMs, which are generalized linear models, are still going to be important because the interpretability is always going to matter. with a lot of the very complex foundation models, it'll make a prediction and we don't really know why it made a prediction. So we can't actually trust and go to stakeholders with it. So I would say that's probably a bigger pitfall I've seen where more junior data scientists, including myself, I was like really excited about all these like sexy techniques and in reality, like a lot of times you don't need to actually use those.

14:26So yeah.

14:27Jon Krohn:It's been a while since I've done time series analysis. It's been a few years. But before the pandemic, so this is like 2019. Yeah. That was kind of the end of me teaching in-person deep learning courses. So kind of like 2016 to 2019, I was teaching deep learning these like six-week courses at the New York City Data Science Academy. and being in New York, like we are actually recording today, which I didn't mention at the outset, we're recording in person today at a great studio. And so being in New York, there's a lot of people in finance, obviously. And then, so you get a lot of people, either, you know, individual traders or people working at financial institutions where they're trying to predict the future.

15:13Jon Krohn:They're trying to forecast commodity prices or stock prices in the future. and all of those people would try to use deep learning approaches like you mentioned lstms there are transformers different kinds of deep learning approaches and it could have just been the tooling that we had at that time because this is now talking six years ago at the latest but nobody ever got results anywhere close to what they could with more with simpler statistical approaches right yeah like i think it's i do think that like over the years so there's like these there's like these forecasting competitions they're called like the m1 m2 have it every like five ten years and uh it's like they they have these competitions because they basically want to figure out what's the best forecasting approach and um historically when those competitions started the um the univariate time series methods won like quite a bit and then but then over the years, deep learning has gotten better.

16:13But what they found more recently is typically the hybrid approaches have had the best of performance where you have an ensemble of both tree-based models, deep learning models, and you have univariate time series models that handle certain cases. So I think that like really so far right now, it's like, it's not like one method will replace the other. It's kind of like both will be in tandem. They're kind of like a team and they're both going to be used for different types of problems. But yeah, I found that in practice at work, it's not needed as much. But maybe like if you're a quant trader, you need to like edge out, you know, 1.1 % accuracy.

16:53Maybe it's like a little bit more useful.

16:54Jon Krohn:So yeah, those are great tips. So I'll have a link in the show notes to these M1 and M2 forecasting competitions to give people a sense of where they can be looking for whatever the latest kind of modeling approach is to get the absolute state of the art and unsurprising to hear as usual that it's an ensemble. Yeah, yeah, it's an ensemble right now as of the last paper I read, so. Data scientists, it's time to talk about your tech. With Windows 10 support coming to an end, now is the perfect moment to rethink your setup. Enter Dell AI PCs powered by Intel Core Ultra processors. These devices are built for the demands of modern data science, delivering faster performance, smoother multitasking, and the power to handle even the most complex workflows.

17:40Jon Krohn:Whether you're training machine learning models or analyzing massive data sets, these PCs are designed to keep you ahead of the curve. Don't let outdated tech slow you down. Visit dell.com slash shoppcs to explore how you can upgrade your device and elevate your work. That's dell.com slash SHOPPCS. Yeah, and I suspect that in the future is just going to be like bigger ensembles with more approaches in them. Yeah. Yeah. Going back a little bit, you mentioned that the other big problem that people run into with forecasting is doing their train test split wrong by just randomly splitting. Like if you think about a big table where every row is a time point, they're just randomly taking some rows, putting them in the training set and the other rows, putting them in the test set.

18:28Jon Krohn:I think it's pretty obvious but i would just love to have you confirm for me and the audience that that i have this correct that the right way to be doing a train test split with forecasting is to train up until a certain time point so use all the data points up until a certain time point and then use that as a cutoff and you're predicting after that cutoff yeah yeah that's right and i would say like with time series uh we typically don't want to do one split we there's two approaches there's expanding window. So you kind of imagine that cut off you iterate through the different cutoff points and then the training data expands.

19:03So it's called expanding window. And there's also sliding window where the training window stays static. And then it just kind of slides down the data set. And that's usually the common cross validation techniques that we'll use to see if our model is performing better or not.

19:18Jon Krohn:That again, sounds like a similarity to a pre-training of a language model. where you pass a window over your entire corpus of data just trying to predict the next word. Yeah, yeah. I find language models and time series to be pretty, not the same, but pretty adjacent. Like similar techniques can be used for both. So digging into this a little bit more, the similarities and differences between time series models and language models, you have said, I have a quote here, that forecasting isn't as sexy as NLP or LLMs. You said that previously, I think on Harpreet Sahota's The Data Scientist Show. Yeah, yeah.

19:58Jon Krohn:And you said something similar to that already in today's episode. Okay. But with now LLMs, you know, getting state-of-the-art results in ensemble with other approaches, like you mentioned tree-based approaches and these statistical approaches, does that change your interest a little bit in potentially using transformers or other kinds of language models in forecasting? Is it something you explore more and more? Oh, yeah. I mean, like at work, you know, it's like transformers, AI agents, LLMs. That's like the hot thing. So everyone wants to like - AI agents for forecasting? Yeah, yeah. I'm trying to figure out how we can do that.

20:37So, you know, it's like the hot thing. So you want to like, everyone's excited. So you're trying to figure out like use cases for it. So I totally would, if there's like a good foundation model that can like prove strong accuracy that's significantly better than the models that I have current, that I'm currently running. And then we, and I can make a reasonable business case for it. I totally would be, would be open to do it. But I think right now it's like, we've done some tests where we tested some of like the foundation models. I think it's like Kronos, Times FM. There's one from Nixle, I forgot the name of it.

21:15And then, yeah, It just didn't beat our like simple approaches internally, but you know, like they're going to get better. And then in the future, maybe we could justify actually using them, but yeah.

21:27Jon Krohn:And then I guess there still would be the explainability issue that you mentioned earlier. We'd still have the explainability issue. And, um, like if, if there's like, if somebody is able to solve that, then, and we, and we can use these models then yeah, I'd, I'd totally be down. There's probably some situations where the explainability matters more than others. I'm just going to absolutely completely conjecture on some kinds of scenarios where that might happen in Netflix. And you don't need to like give away anything proprietary at all. But just kind of like as I think about it, something like a model to be predicting what somebody might want to watch next and what to show them on the homepage.

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22:02Jon Krohn:Maybe you don't really care about explainability so much there because they're seeing lots of different options. It's not like a mission critical decision. whereas some things like predicting maybe where to allocate some financial resources, what market to put advertising money in or something where it's potentially large sums of money and you don't want to be doing that without understanding why you're doing it. Yeah, yeah. So I think you got it right. And if I were to bucket the two things you said, there's two common types of forecasting problems. You have operational use cases and you have like strategic use cases.

22:44So I actually learned this from a forecasting course I took from, uh, his name's like Tim Januszkowski. Um, I don't know if you met him, but he, um, he, uh, basically bucketed this, this concept into like operational forecasts where you take, you build these forecasts to help run your operations. So let's say that you're trying to, let's say Amazon, right? You're trying to predict where deliveries are going so you can kind of effectively run fulfillment. In that scenario, you will probably want the most accurate model. You don't care as much about explainability, but if it's really, really accurate, you will get significantly more efficiency gains from the operations of it.

23:25Versus there's the other bucket called strategic forecasting. And that's typically like, say, FP &A, where they're saying, hey, I think this is where the business is going to be. We need to make decisions off of this forecast. So typically, if your forecast is for like a strategic purpose, you want high interpretability. If you want an operational purpose, you don't care as much about it. So I found that I've worked on both those problems and like with those operational approaches, you can actually use more deep learning, you know, sexy models for those approaches if you can like prove out the accuracy.

23:59But then if you're like, you're trying to like make decisions off of it that are strategic, then you actually really want to know the assumptions going into the forecast.

24:07Jon Krohn:So that was a really elegant, nice way of bifurcating the kind of hand wavy idea that I was describing. Yeah. No, like trigger that. So yeah. Perfect. Yeah. Really cool. All right. So we've talked about some of the approaches that you've been applying at top companies like Spotify, Netflix, DoorDash, some of the most competitive companies to get into for any kind of role, you know, whether it's data science or software engineering or marketing or even probably people working in legal, HR. Those are probably some of the companies that people most want to get into. What kinds of tricks do you have for our listeners to get hired by these top firms?

24:44Yeah, I have so many. So I would say, I'll kind of talk through all the tricks that I used. So when I was trying to get into DoorDash, there was a technique I learned back then called the briefcase technique, which I think actually still works. And I've talked about this on a number of podcasts. but um basically the idea is that like the core principle of getting a job right it's not like interviewing it's actually can you add value and solve that company's problems right so when you an interview is just a way to kind of test your skill set for to see if you can actually solve their problems but in reality you can actually just circumvent this and actually see if you can solve their problems so an example is actually at doordash um like i what i did was i figured out what their biggest pain points were and then i like put together a doc outlining hey these are your problems this is how i would solve it um and i like it was pretty detailed i spent at least like a couple days on it and then you send it to the hiring manager and sometimes it'll hit it's not always going to hit but you have a reasonable shot for it to hit and if it does hit then they'll they'll actually be much more sold on saying hey okay like i'm this person has a skill set that I could solve my problem, I'll bring them in again to have a conversation with them.

26:02So I found that technique to work pretty well for -

26:06Jon Krohn:Do you mind if I interrupt you for one quick sec on this one, on that first point there? Something that's interesting today is, so you started working at DoorDash like more than five years ago, I think, if I remember. Yeah, it was a while ago, yeah. And so back then, obviously, we didn't have generative models that could be creating. So if somebody gets an email from you that's like, these are your pain points, and you clearly spend a lot of time, a couple of days. This is quite an unusual email to get probably for a hiring manager. And that's part of what makes it such a great tool for getting hired.

26:36Jon Krohn:But I wonder if today a hiring manager might say, this is definitely Gen.AI. You know, and it's almost, there's kind of like a, it's almost like the more effort you put into it, the more crisp and perfect it looks, they might say, maybe they're more likely to say this is something that was just created by Gen.AI This person doesn't, like they're just, you know, they've figured out some relatively simple agentic workflow to be like spamming tons of hiring managers with these like, what look like very complex reports. Cause I get that, you know, for the podcast, for example, or for my consulting business for YCaret, I end up getting these like huge PDFs, like 30 page PDFs with illustrations, tons of detail.

27:20Jon Krohn:But I get them like, you know, once a week for each business from some different random person who's just doing a cold outreach. And I'm like, this is definitely some agentic thing going on. Yeah, I see, I see. So yeah, I guess like for, yeah, it's an interesting point because yeah, back then it definitely would have worked. I think today, I still don't think it's, people are doing it as much for like these big companies. Definitely for you, it's like you have an audience so people are gonna reach out. Well, and it's a different kind of thing. Like I'm getting sales, I'm getting sales pitches.

27:52Yeah, I see.

27:53Jon Krohn:And so I think that it could be something very different. Maybe nobody is, I mean, because actually, because I haven't been getting those at all, people reach out and say, are you doing any hiring? And it's a relatively simple message. Nobody has been sending me these big, like these are your pain points. This is how my data science expertise, this relevant experience I have could be useful. So maybe you're right. Maybe it would stand out anyway. Yeah, I think so. So I actually, so I do agree that for the Jenny Eye piece, it's like people, you can easily spam that for sure. I think the hard part is still like you want it to hit like like if you have a Jenny eyes because I think a lot of times even if I do this like if somebody does it to me if they don't if they didn't actually understand my problems then it's it's not really going to hit then I'm going to ignore it but then if they actually said hey like I listened to all your podcasts and I figured out hey your podcast is maybe kind of like you know you could use this kind of software I don't know like you can like improve this aspect of it and they like, and it was like very specific and you get, it was clear that they understood what you needed, then it would hit a lot better.

28:56Jon Krohn:But here's the magic button you press to 10 X your audience and revenue. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, it's like, it's also, so, so I do think that was one trick like that worked back then. I haven't tried it recently. Cause I don't think I need to as much these days because I think as you get more experienced, it's easier to get your foot in the door. Sure. But I would say my recent job at Netflix, the way I got it actually wasn't through applying or using any kind of tactic. It was basically because I had been working in ads at Spotify. I was working in forecasting. So I had this like unique intersection of skills in ads and forecasting at Spotify.

29:38And then when I, when Netflix decided to start doing ads, they needed for forecasting is essential to, to running an ads business. Uh, they needed somebody with that exact experience and that exact overlap and skillset. So then I was like, basically the perfect candidate. And then I, when I interviewed, it was like, you know, pretty, like, I I've been like thinking about this stuff for the last like few years. So it was pretty smooth. But I had been rejected multiple times before at Netflix. You had been. I had been. Yeah. So I think the key thing is, is like you have to just keep trying even if you get rejected.

30:16And then also too, it's like, do you have a unique intersection of skills that is hard for the person to hire for? Because I think there's many people that will do forecasting. There's many people that do ads, but there's a lot fewer people that do both. So I do think that as people like develop their careers, it is good to build some sort of niche expertise in an overlap of say industries and skillsets. And that's actually what really like differentiates yourself from the rest of the market. So I love that.

30:44Jon Krohn:That's a great soundbite. It sounds like that's going to end up in a YouTube short later on. Yeah, sweet, sweet. Yeah, because that's perfect. All right. So switching gears now from finding the perfect job to finding the perfect partner. You have a startup called yourmove.ai and you've scaled that to over 10 ,000 users. And I'm reading a quote here. It promises to perfect your dating profile and put your texting on cruise control. So it helps users sound witty, flirty, or funny on demand, depending on what they're looking for. And so, yeah, it's kind of blurring the line between human expression and machine creation.

31:25Jon Krohn:Tell us about how you got into this particular thing that you're doing yeah yeah so i'll caveat i don't i don't really work on it anymore so it's like a old startup um but i'm happy to talk about it so does it still does it still work yeah it still works it's still yeah it's still it's still going um so my co-founder at the time dimitri he um he he basically uh this is when gpt2 came out he basically wanted to build a like an app that helps you text better and then for me like in 2019 i built a i trained like some deep learning model on like photos that i swiped on and then i would have the deep learning model predict whether i'd like a profile or not and then it'll auto swipe for me um so then i thought my my friend dimitri's project was a natural continuation of what i had built before but i I think I thought I had more legs because I think the dating apps would definitely ban me for trying to like auto swipe on the, on the app.

32:29So yeah, really the idea of your move, um, was to help you write better messages, write better profiles. Also, um, you know, there's a photo service now, so you can actually use AI to help you craft, you know, better dating profile photos. And, um, yeah, really it was like, I was very interested in this space because, because I was trying to figure out dating. And then, yeah, I was like, okay, how can I use my skillset to apply to an area to make my life better? And that's kind of where it came from.

33:06Jon Krohn:It's the, and I mean this in a genuinely affectionate way. This is the nerdiest way to approach dating. I love it. Well, no, everyone's like, they're all like, if you spent all your energy building this system to do it, you could have just done it and gotten the same result. But as kind of data science engineering people, we like to just build systems to do it rather than do it ourselves. And it sounds like it's been effective for enough users that a lot of people have been using the product, have been using yourmove.ai. Was yourmove.ai useful for you? Did it end up having a real-world result for you?

33:44At the time when I was using it more, it was helpful, but it definitely could not replace it cannot i cannot let it be fully automated like i think a lot of the message suggestions it'll give me some ideas but i'll still craft it in my own voice so there was that and i think a couple years ago uh the photo the photo tech was not good enough yet even like today i think it's still like you can kind of tell it's still ai generated and and Like if people see that you have an AI generated photo, it's actually like a negative, like a negative perception. So I still think the photos are not quite there yet where it feels like really genuine.

34:26Yeah. So I would say like it helped, but it could not be the sole thing that like really solved all dating problems.

34:33Jon Krohn:Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. It is interesting that I was reading actually just yesterday at the time of recording that a lot of the big dating apps, which saw surges in their share price in the U.S. at least during the pandemic. So kind of around 2020, Match Group, which owns a bunch of these dating apps, I think like Hinge, Tinder are all owned by this Match Group. Don't quote me on this. I'm doing this from memory. Yeah, yeah. No worries. But then there's also Tinder. and so yeah, Tinder, Grindr for some people that's the perfect dating app and with all of these apps actually they've had a decrease in user activity so kind of post-pandemic with people wanting to meet in person again wanting to have that real connection and so share prices for the publicly listed ones like Match Group have plummeted and apparently all of these companies are betting on AI solutions to improve the app.

35:32Jon Krohn:And I wonder if that's going to work out. So basically these kinds of things, like you did with yourmove.ai, it sounds like companies are integrating more and more. And what clicked me onto that is that, of course, relative to if you were doing, if you got started with yourmove.ai in GPT-2 era, that was like, I mean, there was a 50-50 chance you just got nonsense out of it. And whereas today you can get, obviously, I'm sure everybody who listens to this show uses conversational agents regularly and is kind of familiar with the state of the art. It's mind-blowing how accurate and helpful these results can be.

36:07Jon Krohn:And so integrating that into an app, I can see the idea and it's easy to imagine being in a boardroom, like how are we going to get our share price back up? AI, that's probably happening in a lot of boardrooms all over the world. But I wonder if all of a sudden everyone is doing that in a dating app, like getting help with what photos to select and yeah maybe with photo selection and stuff that's good because why not show yourself in the best light yeah but if everybody's having ai generated messages and ai reading of messages it's kind of a weird environment it feels like to me yeah i mean that's like when we were working when i was working on your movie.ai that was like the biggest concern they're like is this going to be this like dystopian future where every everyone's ai is talking to each other and setting updates for each other um i i personally think now like it's been a couple years since i worked on your move i've noticed a trend to be a little bit more towards in real life so like there there is like a strong especially like being in here in new york i have like a bunch of single friends there's a strong appetite to like go to run clubs go to like in-person events to try to meet people and like there's a really like strong negative perception towards dating apps but people will still use it because that's like the easiest way to like get dates but there's like a strong negative perception so it does seem like it's still going but there's it's like the trend is starting to kind of shift a little bit um i found for me when i was dating being social like doing hobbies that i loved like going out to events that like aligned with my personal values tended to to work better for me but you know you have to use it so like you know it's it's still gonna be a part of what you what you do yeah i think it's uh i think that the the volume that you can get through a dating app yeah the volume of potential people that is it's it's a double edged sword because while theoretically it allows you to see more options that prospective option is also seeing more options yeah and so like you know if it's something like a run club and you two are you know you and the person that you're interested in are both regular runners like you know the number of single people that are regularly going at the same time to that run club like it's going to be end up being a pretty small pond and you're going to feel like hey this is like you know the person for me because yeah you know i keep seeing this person and they're just you know it's just the perfect fit whereas online you're just like well i could see what else there is yeah yeah so so my girlfriend right now um i don't think i would have matched with her on a dating app like we met through like ski friends so we like both love skiing and snowboarding like she was filtering i'm five nine she was filtering for six feet plus guys so like we would never have met on a dating app so it's like you know the medium kind of like forces you to behave in certain ways as well so it is um yeah it's unfortunate part of the game yeah yeah that is interesting that's a really good it's a really good data point solid data point on why uh real life can be better so yeah so interesting things happening in the dating world because of algorithms and now AI, this automation of love.

39:18Jon Krohn:And we'll see how that goes. All right, moving on from the dating conversation, which maybe some of our technical listeners are like, get back to some data and AI stuff more explicitly. So we'll do that right now. So something that you've argued before is that automation with AI fails. Automation with AI fails if people first don't have mastery. And so I'd love you to fill us in more on what you mean by that. So is it that like in an organization, you can't have success just through agents automatically doing things if there isn't some level of human mastery in the system already? Yeah, so I can give a concrete example.

40:05So I tried on the side, right? When AI was like really popping off, I really tried to, I was like, hey, like, you know, there's the gpt image launch i can create ads with this and then if i can promise say bit like founders that i can just grow their business by creating ads and they launch it on meta ad manager then it's like a clear business like opportunity here and i think i still think it's like a good business opportunity but what i realized was like i basically tried to build this ai workflow that would automatically create ads for me and i i was able to create ads but the problem was the ads were horrible.

40:45Like they were not good. I would show them to like a person running a business and they're like, these, these, these are not good. And I didn't have an eye for what was good and what was bad. So like I had never made ads before. I knew how to like hit the open AI APIs. I knew how to like write Python scripts. I knew how to generate the images, but I had never like created ads before and i think because i never had created ads before and i didn't have an understanding of what was good or not like i i wasn't the right person to try to like completely automate this workflow like ideally it's like somebody who also knows ads but also has the tech skills or you know you partner with somebody who knows how to create ads uh ideally that's like the right setup where okay like this person has an intuition on what's good in the system and then I can like automate it, that will tend to work much better.

41:41So I learned from that project that it's better to like know how to do the workflow manually first and know that you can get a good result and then you can automate it. So yeah.

41:52Jon Krohn:It's interesting how there's also how you can carve up any one of these topic areas into different parts. Because earlier in the episode, you were talking about how your expertise with advertising was one of the key things that allowed you to have such a specialized niche and to get hired at Netflix after trying multiple times. But despite all of your experience working with, in the ad industry and working on ads, you didn't have experience with creative, with creating the copy, with creating the image that goes out. Correct, yeah, I didn't have it. I thought that because I had the background in ads that I could do it, but then I never actually, yeah, I didn't have the expertise in creative specifically.

42:32Like I can create agentic workflows doing forecasting and automate time series analysis, I feel very confident in that. But in creating like high-performing creatives, I'm probably not the right person to do that.

42:46Jon Krohn:So my last question I asked, I mentioned agents. We talked about agents a little bit. You have a popular tweet where you condescendingly, condescendingly, I think that's the right word, scathingly certainly is the right word, said that agents are just Python scripts. Yeah, yeah. And so what do you mean by that? Is it really that simple? You know, do you think, yeah, what do you think about agents? Is it overhyped? Are we gonna get, are we gonna see a lot of value out of the money? Because you have mentioned them a few times in this episode already in ways that sound like you see some potential there.

43:18Yeah, yeah, I think I was probably a little too, I think it was a little too condescending and scathing. But I think I'm realizing, right, like, as I try to build, I'm very pro agents. I wanna like build them. I'm trying to get more projects like this. It's like hot. It's fun. But like what I'm realizing is that when I want an agent to automate something, a lot of times like passing it to an LLM, the space in which you can answer is too wide. Like I want a more deterministic, hey, do this exact thing how I want you to do it. And when I really want to make it as deterministic as possible, it then just becomes a Python script.

44:02So like, but I'm very pro agents. I'm pro trying to like automate my job and automate parts of my job. And yeah, so.

44:09Jon Krohn:Yeah, you're hitting the nail on the head there with some of the bigger issues with agents is that, you know, I talked five, 10 minutes ago about how, you know, LLMs are so powerful these days. And obviously that's just going to get better and better. yeah but the flip side of that the double-edged swordness of that is that it can mean a very wide variety of possible responses and moving further away from uh something deterministic something predictable there's different kinds of approaches that people you know you can turn down the temperature on the model to try to have things be a bit more deterministic but but getting you know getting that right can definitely be tricky and then there's also like frameworks out there for testing lots of possible different responses but either way you know i think there's a i think at least what what you're highlighting here is that you know getting an agentic workflow to work effectively in a real world commercial use case especially where it's going to be going at scale is really hard work it's hard and um yeah a lot of times like you wanted to do like especially at like a really large scale a small mistake could be really costly you want it to like work exactly how you want it to work versus like you know maybe there's a five percent chance it might might give us a like a weird answer we want to like reduce that risk so very pro agents i think one of the things i learned recently was actually like it's you can have like the the work execution be much more deterministic but the decision to to trigger that execution actually should be like through an LLM.

45:41So you can have an LLM make that decision on whether to trigger or not. And then when it makes that decision, then you just have like a deterministic workflow to run for that. So I found that to be like a good balance, but we're still seeing.

45:53Jon Krohn:On the topic of agentic AI, something that's very trendy these days is context engineering. And you also have a tweet about how a monolithic code repo can act as a great automatic source of all the contexts that you need to engineer for a particular kind of problem. Do you know what I'm talking about with this? Yeah, yeah, I know what you're talking about. Yeah, yeah, so I think one of the things as I've gotten really deeper into the AI space is that, and this is for me, my personal workflow, if I have 10 different repos scattered across, it's hard for me to say, go into Cursor, have cursor figure out all the files in all these like five to ten different repos and figure out what it's doing and like bring that context into what I'm trying to do versus if everything is in like one place it's much easier for the say cursor or cloud code or codex agent to go and find the relevant files and and start doing things with it and like when everything is in a monolithic repo So then I can just say, hey, like reference this folder, tell like, you know, make a Python script similar to like whatever is in this folder.

47:10And then it'll just like do it how I want it to do it. So yeah. So that's kind of why I was like, I'm like much more pro mono repo now with AI versus before I was actually kind of like against mono repo. So yeah.

47:23Jon Krohn:It seems like the kind of thing that it was a software best practice to say, you know, split out different kinds of functionalities or use cases into different repos. Classic like microservice architectures where everything's separate. And by changing one repo, you can feel like your API isn't gonna be impacted. But yeah, it's interesting how things change now in this world of huge context windows for tools like Cursor. And actually is a great next follow-up question. At the time of recording at least, and these things change quickly, you shared recently that your current So your personal tech stack that you use, you mentioned cursor just there, but you've said that it spans Claude, Whisperflow, Gemini, and V0.

48:09Jon Krohn:So let's dig into those a bit, maybe elaborate on your stack a bit and kind of where these fit together. So for example, Claude, probably a lot of people are aware of is one of the leading conversational agents out there in general. Gemini, similarly, but whisper flow I haven't even heard of and v0 I've heard of and I'm kind of kicking myself that I don't remember off the top of my head what it is sure yeah I can talk through it so yeah whisper flow is basically a voice dictation software where you basically can press a button and it's called whisper flow because you can like whisper into the mic and then it'll actually dictate it pretty accurately because you're like in an office you don't want to be like talking super loud.

48:54And then I found that to be really useful to like leverage with AI because it's much easier to like say everything on my mind than to like type it, type it all out so I can actually inject a lot more context when I'm trying, when I'm prompting, say the agent or the AI.

49:11Jon Krohn:So you'll be kind of sitting at your desk and you'll just be whispering into your mic on your laptop. Yeah. Yeah. Or if I'm working from home, my, my girlfriend will just hear me just like saying a bunch of stuff. And then she'll be like, oh, he's talking to the AI right now. So yeah, yeah. Nice. We'll see. Our listeners probably just heard a beep on that first version of stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They can use their imaginations. Yeah, it's okay. You can swear. We'll just bleep it. Okay, cool, cool. And by the way, listeners, I probably haven't mentioned this in a very long time, but the reason why we bleep, because I'm actually, I swear pretty liberally in my day-to-day life.

49:47Jon Krohn:but if you swear one time in any of your episodes, you have to change, you have to tick this box across all podcasting platforms. You go from like a suitable for everyone podcast to like an adult's podcast. Oh, interesting. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, it's crazy. So yeah, so we bleep and then that's the way around. It's pretty funny. A few years ago, it was our previous podcast manager. She's Eastern European. um originally and she kind of she sent me this list of swear words and was like which of these words do you need to bleep out and which ones can we leave in that was a fun one um i'd go into it but you just hear a bunch of bleeps uh on the show so whisper flow that's cool i like the idea of that do you think that there's a difference when you when you take the time to write an email So now with my consulting business, one thing that I'm trying to make sure I do is convey things clearly to a client of my consulting firm and to make sure that their blood pressure is staying low on kind of everything that we've been thinking across the details of their project.

51:01Jon Krohn:And I think if I tried to dictate that, I might not be able to do a good job. Although, even as I say that, it would be a great starting point maybe for the email. You know, I could kind of, I could stream of consciousness. And even if that stream of consciousness isn't very clear, I don't need to go from my stream of consciousness to transcript. I can pass that through an LLM on the way and say, this is going to be an email to a client. You know, can you take this audio or this transcript and convert it into a nice structure? And then I could review that. So actually I've kind of, I was going to say, do you think there's a downside to just dictating, but I've talked myself out of it?

51:43Yeah, I actually would say like for prompting, I dictate a lot. But if I'm trying to like write my own, say doc or like a spec, I actually just write it because I find that like writing it helps me think through things. So like I, for a lot of cases, I actually don't dictate and I, I don't dictate and prompt. I just actually will write it. So I actually properly think through it. But if I don't think I need to think through it, then yeah, I'll probably dictate. So Nice.

52:09Jon Krohn:Okay. So we do kind of agree that there would be situations where dictating might not be the best place to start. And so you're saying that, so it's when you're prompting that you're often dictating. So it's, so you're literally, so you're talking to a conversational agent, you're talking to Claude or Gemini. Yeah. Yeah. If it's like not too disturbing to people around me, then yeah, I'll try to. I'm going to have to try it. I've literally never done it. Yeah. I think if you use cursor now, they added a dictation feature. So you can, you don't have to like download, you can just try the dictation feature in cursor and see, see how well it works for you.

52:38Jon Krohn:Nice. I like that. All right. So yeah, so let's talk about some more of these tools. Why do you use Claude, Gemini, and Cursor? And what is v0? Is that also kind of of the same ilk? Yeah. So, okay. So I use Claude code for the terminal agent. So if I'm running the agent through the terminal, I found Claude code to work better for me. I haven't tried codex. I know that's also a popular one that's like growing, but I've just found Claude code to have the most number of features like they have some cool features like skills they have an agents feature where you can actually like save your agents i've liked those um but recently a cursor just released their new model composer one which is crazy fast and i've actually started to like move over to using that model a lot more so you know this stuff changes you know week to week um gemini i will use actually more for image generation i found nano banana to be like a lot better than the chat gpt image generator so if i want images i'll use uh nano banana and i test this with um image like i try to test different hairstyles using my face and chat gpt will like mess up my face versus nano banana will actually maintain my facial structure and then actually add a different hairstyle so i use that kind of to test the image generation to see how well it captures my keeps my face is that it Is that because did you stumble upon this particular test, this particular validation mechanism through a real world use case?

54:10Jon Krohn:Yeah. Yeah. I was like growing my hair out. So I was like, oh, I kind of want to know what I look like with longer hair. And then I did it with chat GPT. It was horrible. I was like, this doesn't look anything like me. And then I tested it with Nano Banana and actually like looked pretty reasonable. So I was like, oh, yeah. like i think like maintaining the facial structure and making it like look like you as a person is still hard um so yeah so i found nano banana to just be much better yeah i recently had the same experience with uh i had to update a social media uh card that for a podcast episode a super designs podcast episode that i was posting because i gave the artist who creates our thumbnails the wrong long title of the episode.

54:53Jon Krohn:I had accidentally like in the file I left in a previous episode title. And so, but I didn't notice that mistake until it was time for me to post it. And so I went to chat GPT first, just like you did, because we often, I think we often think of, and cause this was the case for a long time or for at least a year or two, where across any kind of, across almost any kind of generative capability, you know, there were points where maybe you'd say mid journey for some kinds of image generation tasks, but a couple of years ago, it was like OpenAI is the place to go. Just start with the OpenAI tool because you're probably going to get the best results.

55:28Jon Krohn:And so that's where I started, kind of out of habit. And I couldn't get the image to stay, my face and the guest's face and the whole layout of the image to stay exactly the same. And it kept doing the exact same misspelling of a word. It was the word accelerate and it was missing one of the E's. and it just could not get it to work. Whereas in Gemini, oh, you know what? I think it was the other way around. I mean, it just goes to show how quickly things change. Because now that I'm actually saying this out loud, I think it actually, yeah, it was in Gemini that I had the frustrating experience where I just couldn't get it to spell this word accelerate correctly.

56:09Jon Krohn:And it couldn't even seem to, it's amazing how you can get into these loops with the agents where I was like, it just could not, I'm just like start from scratch and just do it over. And it was just like, I actually, it just said, I can't do this. I'm like, what? Like, how can you not do that? You can definitely do that. And then with chat GPT, I think the reason why I'm remembering this is because it gave me multiple outputs. And it was like the first one I clicked on, I was like, oh, it doesn't look good. The second one I was like, oh, it doesn't look good. It changed my, it changed our faces.

56:38Jon Krohn:And then somehow the third one was just perfect. So yes, it goes to show the stochastic, kind of tying back to your point about determinism or even something like that, where like, obviously we want the image to stay the same in this kind of use case. And two times out of three, it gets it wrong by luck. I guess one time out of three, I get it. Yeah. Yeah. I remember when I was doing the ad creative thing, I like, I think I spent like$200 of API credits to figure out how to like prompt it in a way that would get it like exactly right. But it took like a lot of experimentation to like figure that out for me at least.

57:13Maybe it's like much better now. So yeah.

57:15Jon Krohn:that can end up being ip for some people in uh some use cases you know just getting that prompt right spending a lot of time on getting things uh just right for that particular model and then they do a model update and yeah then it changes so you always have to keep playing with it yeah um yeah i could talk about the other tools if you want as well oh yeah for sure yeah yeah so the last one is v0 so i found v0 to be really good for spinning up uh web apps so like if you want a front end And I mean, there's like lovable bolts, but I found VZ, I like V0 the most because V0 was originally like software for deploying infrastructure.

57:53So I've found that they have pretty good front ends. I can screenshot something, paste it in there. It'll generate the front end. And I like have deep trust in their backend because I've like used V0 for app deployment in the past. So yeah, that's like for spinning up easy web apps.

58:12Jon Krohn:That's cool. I like that a lot. Yeah. And so I guess like as a, you know, as a kind of underlying point across all of this, it seems like just like for me that it's worthwhile having Cloud Code, Cursor, Gemini, V0, and to be experimenting with them for different kinds of use cases because every month, which one is going to be the ideal choice for you for a given and use case changes. Yeah, it changes all the time. So yeah, I think the core of it is really just to keep trying stuff. When new things get launched, just try it, see how you like it. And yeah, I mean, like if one provider changes something that makes things a lot better, you just switch over to it, so.

58:56Jon Krohn:All right, as a kind of final topic area for you, before we get into the final questions that I ask everyone, as a final kind of topic area, you have spent a lot of time in your career, I guess, in your personal life as well, you know, optimizing and also, you know, developing mental models of how to make the best decisions in the world. And so what kind of advice do you have some kind of like, you know, general takeaways from that experience that you can share with us? Yeah, yeah. So I think like I kind of like use mental models and life principles kind of in conjunction with each other. Like I think the mental models concept was inspired by the like reading about Charlie Munger and the way he approached investing was to like read from a wide variety of, of like topics to kind of come pull these like essential principles out of life to apply to like their decision making and investing.

1:00:04Jon Krohn:Charlie Munger there being the right hand man at Berkshire Hathaway. Exactly. And I think he lived in 98 and passed away just recently. Yeah, he passed away recently. So, but yeah, he's been a, he's a huge influence in the investing world. And for me, it's, I found it to be really useful just like to help guide day-to-day life decisions, how I approach life when things do come up, how to like approach things. And I'm still kind of iterating on it. like um like what one that comes to mind is uh this concept this like model of asymmetric upside so when there are like things that occur in your life and there's asymmetric upside you do them like an example is like actually going to parties with interesting people like you know sometimes i might be a little bit like feeling introverted a little bit anxious about like not knowing anyone there but i always found that it's never there's no bad downside to going though there's only upside you could like meet somebody really cool that you want to be like really good friends with you meet a great business connection versus the downside is like maybe you didn't meet anybody interesting you just go home and and then just like move on with your day so like i found that mental model to be really useful another one that comes to mind is activation energy so like in chemistry like first i don't i don't remember the exact terms but like in chemistry you need to hit a certain level of activation energy to have some sort of like a chemical reaction i found that like when i'm feeling kind of sluggish i don't really want to do stuff um as long as i get myself to take some action i know that i will hit some threshold for activation and i'll i'll like get a lot more excited to do something.

1:01:50So that's like another one as well. But yeah, I would say like, it's just kind of a useful way to guide your life and guide your decision-making and how you approach things.

1:02:01Jon Krohn:Nice. I love that. Thank you for those. And so, yeah, now moving along to my kind of my standard ending questions, maybe it'll flow nicely. You know, the topic that you just had there, your mental models will flow nicely, maybe into your book choice for us. Do you have a book recommendation for us? For me, the one that comes to mind is Unleash the Power Within by Tony Robbins. So I'm a big personal development guy. I found that book to be very impactful for me because it really helped me clarify what I valued in my life, like what is important and like what is maybe not working for me. it also helped me really like learn how to instill a high level of belief in yourself and I think you know you need that to kind of be confident and like tackle any kind of goal that you want so I found that like if if I were to recommend only like one self-help book I'd probably recommend that book that was like pretty impactful for me nice very cool he is a kind of a classic name if not the most canonical name in self-help yeah so that is cool have you have you seen Tony Robbins live.

1:03:08Jon Krohn:That's supposed to be quite a show. I did the unleash the power within like a few years ago. Um, it was great. I mean, it's, it's kind of like, like a rave slash like motivational, motivational event, um, at the same time. Um, so yeah, it was, it's like really brings your energies up. It really like, it gets pretty emotional. Like he does some interventions where he like talks to like some people come in with certain problems and he really kind of tries to help them and it gets pretty emotional. I did it a while back, but I found it to be pretty useful. That's really cool. You know, in my mind, I kind of had this impression in my head that, well, you know, that kind of experience, that kind of Tony Robbins thing, that's not for me.

1:03:53Jon Krohn:I'm not the kind of person that does that. So it's interesting to have someone like you who actually is a lot like me in a lot of ways. Say that you got so much value from it, I guess it's something I should be considering. Certainly, I mean, the book is a pretty safe place to start. Yeah, I think read the book if you like it. It helps. It helps when the event is like much more like you'll definitely feel something versus the book. You know, some people have read through it and they're like, oh, yeah, it's like I got kind of bored or, you know, so it hits people differently. Nice. All right. Well, hopefully an interesting wreck, not a boring wreck for most of the listeners who checked that out.

1:04:29Jon Krohn:Yeah, yeah. Nice. And so, Jeff, my final question for you is where can people follow you for more of your thoughts? It's been a really interesting episode where, you know, I've mentioned things like your Data 365 courses. I'll be sure to have a link to those in the show notes. We've talked about some popular tweets that you've had. Where should people be following you? Yeah. I mean, my personal website, jeffleechronicles.com. And I'm on, I'm kind of lightly on Twitter and not like, you know, I kind of just post whenever I feel like it. Twitter is Jeff M as in Mary, Jeff M L I, Jeff M Lee. And yeah, that's pretty much it.

1:05:07Yeah. That's where you can find me.

1:05:10Jon Krohn:Fantastic. We'll be sure to have links to all of those in the show notes. Jeff, thank you so much for taking the time. And yeah, hopefully we can check in again in a few years and see how your journey is coming along. Yeah, cool. Thanks for having me. What a knowledgeable guest. I hope you learned as much in today's episode as I did in it. Jeff Lee covered strategies and tools for effective forecasting and time series analysis in general, his top tips for getting hired in technical roles at top firms like Netflix and Spotify, the promise and peril of ever-increasing automation and AI around finding your romantic partner, and the collection of AI tools that he uses as part of his daily workflow, including Whisperflow, Cloud Code, Gemini, V0, and Cursor.

1:05:53Jon Krohn:As always, you can get all the show notes, including the transcript for this episode, the video recording, any materials mentioned on the show, the URLs for Jeff's social media profiles, as well as my own social media profiles at superdatascience.com slash 947. Thanks, of course, to everyone on the Super Data Science podcast team, our podcast manager, Sonja Breivich, media editor, Mario Pombo, partnerships manager, Natalie Jaisky, researcher, Serge Macisse, writer, Dr. Zara Karche, and our founder, Kirill Arimenko. Thanks to all of them for producing another super episode for us today. For enabling that super team to create this free podcast for you, we are deeply grateful to our sponsors.

1:06:31Jon Krohn:You can support the show by checking out our sponsors links, which are in the show notes. And if you'd ever like to sponsor the show yourself, you can find out how at johnkrone.com slash podcast. Otherwise, just keep on listening. That's the most important thing to me. But share the episode with folks who might like to hear it. Review the episode on your favorite podcasting app or YouTube. Subscribe. but most importantly, yeah, I just am so glad to have you listening and I hope I can continue to make episodes you love for years and years to come. Until next time, keep on rocking it out there and I'm looking forward to enjoying another round of the Super Data Science Podcast with you very soon.

From the publisher

Jeff Li tells Jon Krohn what it's like to work at scale as a data scientist and a machine learning engineer at Netflix, Spotify and DoorDash, as well as how to get a foot in the door at these companies. Jeff also discusses how to run forecasts and trends, and how to read their results. Listen to hear Jeff Li discuss how Spotify became a podcast powerhouse, his startup move.ai, and the tools he uses every day.

This episode is brought to you by the ⁠⁠Dell⁠⁠, by ⁠⁠Intel⁠⁠, by Fabi, and by Airia.

Additional materials: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.superdatascience.com/947⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Interested in sponsoring a SuperDataScience Podcast episode? Email natalie@superdatascience.com for sponsorship information.

In this episode you will learn:

(09:05) Forecasting in data science               

(23:33) How to get a data science job at Netflix    

(30:06) Jeff’s experience on launching an AI startup     

(51:57) Jeff’s AI toolkit                                  

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