What does the future of mobility look like?

0:01Business should and can be and will be helping us go from that heavy, expensive, elite way of moving to one that is nimble, more democratic, more democratic, more inclusive and more suitable to the environment. in which we live. Mobility, it's a basic need and it has to be a basic right. So we have to assure that when we move to a new way of mobility, in this case electric autonomous mobility, we assure that it remains affordable and accessible for all. Before you would own your one car and use that car for every single trip. And we are now able to break down vehicle use into many, many people.

0:44And all of this leads into the potential of a more multimodal system. In many parts of the world, moving from point A to point B meant getting in a car, one that you had to own and maintain, put fuel in it, then drive it. But that could soon be a thing of the past. As we speak, an entirely new system of transport is being created. AI, climate change, innovation, they're combining to alter the way that we move. Cities are already changing the way they're designed to keep up with this shift. And now, do businesses need to follow suit? I'm Lizzie O 'Leary, a podcaster and journalist. And I'm Femi O 'K, a broadcaster and journalist.

1:27And this is a special series of Take On Tomorrow, a podcast from PwC's management publication, Strategy and Business. Each episode, we look at a different fundamental human need from the way we build the places we live and work to the way we move around cities. Meet the innovators and global experts who are forging the future. We will chart the next decade of change and understand how businesses are approaching human needs differently, all while creating value in their companies and society. And we'll cover the lessons we can learn whatever industry you're in. Today, get in your autonomous vehicle and pack your electric bike.

2:09It's time to look at the future of how we move.

2:16Soon, we're going to talk to Robin Chase to explore how the way we move is transforming. But first, to help us understand the challenges facing mobility, we're joined by Heiko Seitz, PwC's global e-mobility leader from PwC Middle East. Hi, Heiko. Hey, Femi. Hey, Lizzie. Great to be here with you. Heiko, I wonder if you could lay out the biggest challenges facing how we move today. So the main challenge, Lizzie, is climate change, because while mobility is a basic need, it still contributes to 24 percent of CO2 emissions. We need mobility. It's a pillar of prosperity, of economic success. It provides access to food, to health care, to education and to income.

3:03So we have to think to keep mobility affordable and accessible to everyone. And at the same time, we need to decarbonize it to assure that the generations to come retain a clean, green and sustainable planet. Why are we in a situation right now, Heiko, where people like yourself are thinking about how do we reimagine the way that we move? Why is that necessary? Look, Femi, there are a couple of mega trends in the world that affect the way how we want to move. Because there is not just climate change, there is rapid urbanization. We see across the world that people move from rural areas to urban areas and we see mobility starting to compete with living space.

3:49then we have the availability of technologies to make mobility more affordable, more convenient, cleaner and greener. And then the way we want to consume mobility has changed as well. Just like users or consumers are used, Netflix and Amazon, they want to make mobility always available at the tip of their fingers. Heiko, thank you so much. As you have spelled out, the way we move is set to shift tremendously over the next few years. As the types of cars we drive, like electric vehicles, proliferate more and more, the opportunities for new, unexpected types of businesses to enter the space are expanding rapidly.

4:31But it is not just the type of vehicles, Lizzie, that we'll be driving that's set to change. The way we move goods and people is also shifting. To find out more, I spoke to Robin Chase, a transportation entrepreneur for 25 years. Robin set up Zipcar and Buzzcar, both car-sharing companies, and now spends time advising cities and governments on their transportation strategies. I began by asking her how she's seen transportation change over her career.

5:05Before I did Zipcar, when people thought about innovation in the transport sector, it was, let's build a new transit system, let's build a new bridge, or let's build a brand new kind of vehicle. And now we have these distributed systems. We are now able to break down vehicle use into many, many people. It used to be one owner equals one user, whereas before you would own your one car and use that car for every single trip. And all of this leads into the potential of a more multimodal system because of our wireless devices in our hands, the internet, payment systems. We've developed all of that very much.

5:47So transportation has been digitized over the last 25 years. We have seen climate change, changes in technology, AI coming into play as well. These global changes, how do they impact the way that people move today? It used to be that people would grow up and think, I want to own a car and that would be a defining achievement of my adult self. And my expectation is to drive a car everywhere I go. That is increasingly unpleasant, impossible in our current urbanized world. there are no circumstances, economic, environmental access, safety, in which one 150 pound person in a two or three ton vehicle makes sense.

6:39And yet that is how we have designed our infrastructure and our personal economic expectations and our tax laws and the way we build things. And that fundamentally has to change. As the way that we move around the world changes, as the way that we see transportation develops, how do companies look at transportation and think, hmm, I could develop this. What would this be? So governments need to relieve congestion to address climate change, to address traffic safety, traffic congestion. Developers need to figure out how to make their office space, their retail space or their residential space one that is easy and convenient for all the needs of individuals.

7:28If we think of that broadness of things, there are so many hard problems to be solved as we move towards a multimodal way of life that includes a much larger spectrum of users and use cases, addresses both climate change and all the safety hazards that are brought about by cars while reducing price. There's just such a myriad of problems. So companies just need to think which is the sector they are in, which are the people that they are closest to in terms of stakeholders or partners, which are the things that they think they can solve. There's so much opportunity. What are the possibilities for different industries to team up to collaborate for innovative solutions?

8:14What are you seeing? If we think about the rise of autonomous vehicles, because of the layering of very complex software on that, and because of the new ways of using things that we have the owner and the users are different groups, it's such a much more complex, many, many more areas of expertise that are required, that it's going to require partnerships to pull this off. So there's generally one vendor that's going to handle the customer service. There's another vendor that's going to be doing the routine maintenance. There's another person, of course, who's doing insurance. There'll be people who are looking at the data and seeing how to make things more efficient.

9:02Connectivity, software updates. There are so many different types of expertise required to operate these businesses well. Transportation is one of the most complex industries we have. We haven't even mentioned how different individual cities are from each other. So you also have to have city experts as well. People really know that particular environment. I want to ask you about some recent PWC analysis that suggests that in transportation, that there will be around$425 billion of revenue to be redistributed among companies this year as they reinvent their business models in this sector. Where do you think that money should go?

9:50We should be improving mobility and access. We need to be reducing costs for a large number of households. Their transportation, which is their car, is about 16 % of household costs. And for poor rural people, it's 50 % of their household budget is going towards their car. We want to be improving convenience because that is how we think about the car as being, wow, so convenient. But it comes with these incredibly high costs and the annoyance of traffic and parking. And so we can expand the number of users. We need to address negative externalities, climate, air pollution, and safety. And so back to this idea of how can companies make it easy and pleasant for people to have multiple modes, which means maybe I'm going to own my own personal electric bike, and then I'm going to use transit passes, and I'm going to use taxis, and I'm going to use shared cars, and I'm going to use buses and planes and rail, that it's an explosion of choices that are facile.

10:53And companies can think about where is their personal network of partnerships? Where is their own personal access capacity? What do they have today that is being underused that by partnering with other people or opening up, they can make better use of? I'm going to give you three different groups of people, industries who are responsible for our transportation. We have businesses, we have governments, we have city planners. what role do they play in transformation? I think that infrastructure is destiny. And when I say that word infrastructure, I want to think of it as something foundational. I really would like to see governments, both cities and national governments, step up and lay the ground rules, which means at a minimum treating all transportation modes equally, but ideally demonstrating that they are favouring lighter, more sustainable, cheaper modes.

11:49Do they work together or do they stay in their lane? We do work together. Government is the one that lays out the basic infrastructure. Here's the rules of engagement. Here's the roads and the taxes and the safety requirements we're going to put on you. Individuals and the buyers shape things in as much as they buy things that work for them. And so when business is interacting between those two things. Business is understanding the direction that government is pressing them. And we can see in cities around the world that they are trying to reduce what is available to cars and elevate what is available to other modes.

12:33But it is all in the context of what is viable or interesting to individuals or to the buyers. So as I said, there's a lot of problems and I think marketing is everything and we can make it interesting and palatable using the right words. When it comes to companies looking at how we move, how do they create new value in this space for the future? So they're thinking about how we move now, but what's the value proposition for the future? How we move now is an oversized, extremely expensive, the single most expensive, creating the most negative externality ways of moving. How we will move in the future is much more lightly, much more cheaply, much more space efficiently, with fewer negative externalities, I want to say more nimbly.

13:24And that is where business should and can be and will be helping us go from that heavy, expensive, elite way of moving to one that is nimble, more democratic, more inclusive, and more suitable to the environments in which we live. Robin, thank you for sharing your insights about how we move. I so love this topic and it was lovely talking with you. Thank you, Femi.

13:55Heiko, we heard a lot in that conversation about how the way people are moving could be changing, particularly the pivot to a multimodal way of moving. How are you seeing that kind of shift reflected in your own work? I think we can really divide the transition to two main phases. And the first phase where we're currently in is really about moving to connected and increasingly shared and electric mobility. And when we talk about connected mobility, this is all about the software-defined vehicle. This is really there. At the same time, depending where we are in the world, we see an increasingly electric share of mobility.

14:36and in parts of the world also a greater openness of shared mobility. That really comes down to regional user preferences. And then in the future, and I think this is really coming down to the readiness of autonomous mobility, both by technology and regulation, we will see a massive shift into connected shared mobility where vehicles will be picking up people and dropping them off based on autonomous technology, driving circularity and getting down the cost. What is the role that governments and policymakers need to play in making that happen? We're having a massive infrastructure challenge that needs to be closed in order to make electric mobility attractive for the users.

15:21So building these EV charging infrastructure networks is extremely capex-heavy. And they're also in an ecosystem where you don't have many electric cars, especially at the beginning, they don't pay off the bills very easily. So there is a long lead time for investors to get their money back. And that comes down back to the governments having the responsibility, if they want to electrify their ecosystems, to kickstart the electric engine with subsidies. And we really see that in different parts of the world. Wherever subsidies are applied in the beginning of the electrification of mobility, these ecosystems start to decarbonize faster.

15:59Heiko, so if we think big, bigger than commuters, bigger than people moving around the world, and we start thinking about goods, products and cargo moving around the world, how is that changing? Is EV making an appearance in how products are being moved? Absolutely. And it's not just EV, it's also autonomy, because autonomy will be predestined for cargo fleets, because, you know, driving around on a highway for hundreds of miles, probably on only one lane of the highway, it's much easier to apply these new technologies. And for electric mobility, it's the same. It's more predictable journeys, and you can plan the charging spot and location much better.

16:42The challenge, however, is that the business case for heavy transport is not as good and attractive yet as it has become already for passenger cars. Electric trucks and also buses are still quite expensive. The cost is coming down significantly. But for fleet operators that are much more profit oriented have to be because it's a business. This is still a challenge, but we're getting there. It would not be 2025 if we did not ask you a question about the role that AI has in changing the way companies move people and goods. How does AI fit into this picture? AI is obviously the basis for autonomous mobility.

17:21And this is really the end goal to make sure that we don't only sell more electric vehicles and therefore put more vehicles on the street, which would not be green and circular at all. Keeping in mind, we're doing this to make the planet greener and more sustainable. So autonomy and therefore AI are the key enabler to take more vehicles off the street to drive the utilization up of fewer vehicles. But there is also another challenge, right? So currently there are approximately 5 million truck, taxi, ride-tailing drivers in the United States, for example. if you think that in eight to ten years time 80 percent of these jobs might be replaced by autonomous mobility and artificial intelligence while we want to push and have to push for these technologies we also have to keep the human element in mind and think about how we transition this workforce then into new jobs to make sure that people feel that AI actually contributes to something good for mankind and not creates a new fear, which is unemployment and not being able to feed their families.

18:28I mean, I think one of the things that happens when you introduce a new technology like this is that it's very different depending on where you are, where you live. How can we make sure that this shift in mobility feels equitable in terms of the jobs aspect that you were discussing, but also equitable across the globe and how this technology lands in different places at different times. Mobility is not and may never be a privilege for wealthy parts of society. It's a basic need and it has to be a basic right. So we have to assure that when we move to a new way of mobility, in this case, electric autonomous mobility, we assure that it remains affordable and accessible for all.

19:23Otherwise, society will experience major social tension. And by the way, autonomy will significantly take down mobility costs. We will see some parts of the world that will stick to combustion engine cars. And that comes down to regional political agendas. That also comes down to regional purchasing power of some countries. So we shouldn't have the illusions that the whole world will electrify over the next decades to come. Some parts of the world, depending on their preference and political agenda, will electrify to a higher degree and others won't. And we have to therefore make sure that we make the right recommendations for different parts of the country's recommendations that work and that are acceptable, not just by society, but also the industrial and political the set-up of each region.

20:11Thinking about listening to this from an executive's point of view, are there places where you see business opportunities, particularly for partnerships, in this new world of mobility, putting together things that help support the infrastructure, help support autonomous vehicles that maybe are a little bit hidden or that people aren't thinking about immediately? Successful companies in new mobility are usually champions in collaboration partnerships. And why is that? Because the way businesses are still built, particularly legacy businesses, based on traditional industry silos, I should say, right?

20:55Because oil and gas company and utilities company and automotive company, they still, even though in the new world, they're now breaking out of these silos, they're still confined in their certain sector with the new mobility topics that doesn't work anymore. So in order to embrace these new business models, the only way to do that fast at pace is by partnering across different sectors to realize the value that is out there. Heiko, it's so fascinating listening to how you're describing the future of how we move and how we're developing towards that future. There's a lot of care, a lot of consideration, a lot of education and awareness that you're talking about that is necessary.

21:39So if we are able to put people and communities at the center of how we move and how we want to move, what could be the impact on society? Well, in the end, we want to push for this transformation because we believe it helps create a better place for society because we want to show that the planet remains healthy and sustainable for many more future generations to come. So that's the idealistic element but then there is obviously the realistic pragmatic element of acceptance of this change towards society and this is where we really see a lot of challenges along the way. Keep in mind this is one of the greatest and most impactful transformations mobility is experiencing and our generation would have seen in this area by far.

22:28So there are lots of hiccups and that's very normal for such a mega transformation. And this is why politicians have to think big, but also long term, because on the long term, whoever is not being part of this transformation now might very well get left behind. Finally, if I could ask you to sort of use a crystal ball and look ahead 10 years, what does the way we move look like in a decade? When we look at US, China, Central Europe, many other parts of the world, but especially those Wave 1 regions, by the way, also Middle East, which is a Wave 2 region. Middle East is heavily going into smart, sustainable mobility.

23:12There, I believe that a majority of cargo transport and a high degree of passenger cars will be electric and it will be autonomous. I don't see anything that should stop the move towards electric mobility. Heiko, thank you so much. Thank you, Femi. Thank you, Lizzie.

23:34That was such an interesting conversation, Femi, because it got me thinking about the ways I am used to moving as an individual, but then also stuff. I think stuff was the most fascinating to me. Like the idea that goods and services are going to be out there traveling around in autonomous vehicles. I hadn't really contemplated that so much on my own. I did a double take, which doesn't work in audio. But the double take moment was when I realized that there would be vehicles that wouldn't even have a steering wheel. So they would not look like how we imagine a vehicle to look like. And I'm going to be honest, I love the future.

24:21I'm very scientifically minded, but I was momentarily scared. I think that makes total sense. And I think that is why we have seen people be anxious or scared about the embrace of some types of autonomous vehicles in the markets where they have rolled out. Because it is so unfamiliar to us. We expect a pair of hands on a wheel. Yeah, exactly. That's it for this episode. If you like what you heard, please follow Take On Tomorrow wherever you listen to podcasts. And consider leaving us a review. That really does help more people find the podcast. For more, visit pwc.com forward slash take on tomorrow.

25:07Next time, the way we eat is being transformed. We'll talk about the innovation needed to feed the billions of people on the planet in the decade ahead. We are basically producing food more independently from the day-to-day trials of how nature shifts. It means people can eat great food reliably. That's a huge step forward. Take On Tomorrow is brought to you by PwC's Strategy and Business. PwC refers to the PwC network and or one or more of its member firms. each of which is a separate legal entity.