Big Tech to Pay for Power, Anthropic Abandons Safety, the Adoption Paradox | Diet TBPN

13:27John Coogan:Yeah, yeah. It's like, oh, my business isn't doing poorly right now. I'm laying off people because I'm getting so much benefit from AI. The stock should actually go up. We're more efficient. There's gonna be a lot of that, but it does feel like it's a little bit early. Whereas there are a lot of people that just can hold up their power bill and show you year over year increases. And if that goes away and people don't feel that anymore and they don't have that evidence to share, I think that take gets debunked pretty quickly.

13:55Jordi Hays:I would say I mostly disagree with the idea that rising energy prices is the main reason to be against AI. The rational thing to do then is say, okay, before you build a data center in my community, you have to build a power plant. So then my energy prices go down. No one's doing that. If you look at protests and stuff, they're not saying, please build a power plant first. They're saying it's going to destroy the environment or the water stuff or you're going to take all the jobs because it's going to destroy them.

14:20John Coogan:We need to send you to that New Jersey, New Brunswick protest. Build the nuclear power plant first.

14:25Jordi Hays:I think it's much more on, like, basically job loss of, like, oh, the AI is stealing IP of Disney or whatever.

14:33John Coogan:Anyway, happy NVIDIA Day to all who celebrate, except the bears forget them, says Tay Kim. He's getting fired up. For NVIDIA earnings, it's going to be a fun one today.

14:43Jordi Hays:So we have... Now, the real news, this has been destroyed. This is tearing up the timeline. a new guinness world record and i want to ask john if this if you think this should actually count this is a chinese hyper car going for the fastest drift ever that is but here's the thing he doesn't

15:04John Coogan:he doesn't actually pull out of it does he just crash kind of just u-turn it's like a really fast u-turn i think this counts as a drift that's definitely drifting turning counts if you saw If you saw that car going by, you'd be like, wow, that's drifting. Hype Tech SSR, formerly Hyper SSR, is a high-performance, all-electric, two-door supercar. I mean, this is crazy. This is out before the Tesla Roadster. We've never seen a two-door electric supercar. 1 ,225 horsepower goes from 0 to 60 in 1.9 seconds. And it set the Guinness Book of World Records for the fastest electric car drift at 213 kilometers per hour,

15:43Jordi Hays:which is really really insane i feel like you have to actually stay in the stay in the turn

15:50John Coogan:and not do a u-turn what do you mean stay in the turn yeah i don't think it counts you don't think

15:55Jordi Hays:it counts for what it's worth i don't like theoretically if you were drifting yeah i think of drifting it's you're drifting around a corner around a turn and if you were to drift and spin out during the drift then that doesn't if you were doing if somebody was doing that on a track You'd be like, you didn't drift around the corner, you spun out.

16:13John Coogan:Yeah, okay, okay. Yeah, the top comments is fastest spin out. That's a power slide at best.

16:18Jordi Hays:Fire whoever called this drifting.

16:20John Coogan:That's not drifting, that's losing control. Yes, the chat does not like the drift, the fake drift. Call Guinness Book of World Records again. Reset, reset completely. Stolen drift valor. Stolen drift valor.

16:37Jordi Hays:Palmer is sharing something from Compound, the research from their annual meeting.

16:43John Coogan:Yes. They're showing dollars invested in the top 10 companies versus the other percentage,

16:49Jordi Hays:as a percent of overall funding. So you can see there's just heavy, heavy, heavy concentration in a few names. Is this them? I would say overall this is...

16:57John Coogan:Or is this KOTU?

16:58Jordi Hays:No, this is... Oh, the source is KOTU. KOTU is part of...

17:02John Coogan:Okay.

17:02Jordi Hays:They are part of, I would say, driving this data.

17:05John Coogan:Part of the problem, part of the opportunity. I mean, this is what happens when companies -

17:08Jordi Hays:So much of this is about the AI labs just raising more money than any private companies - It's never happened before. Have ever.

17:15John Coogan:$200 billion. Venture as a class in a good year will do like 400 billion, and across OpenAI at 100 billion, 30 for Anthropic, 20 for XAI, then you have a bunch of Neo labs all picking up a billion each. like you very quickly get to a few companies raising half of all the money and that's shown here. It's an incredible amount of concentration. I think a lot of it is due to companies staying private this long. The idea of Facebook went public at, what was Bill Gurley saying? He was saying Amazon went public sub a billion dollars. When Facebook went public at like 60 billion it was like wow crazy they waited way too long and now it's like multiple trillion dollar companies are still private, which is just an incredible capital sink.

18:03John Coogan:So I don't know, should you even put those in the same bucket? Are they even venture bets at this point? If any venture capital fund is putting that in their venture bucket at this point, it feels ridiculous compared to growth scale. I mean, you're bigger than probably 90 % of the S &P. It's a completely different business.

18:24Jordi Hays:Some kind of relevant data. We're about to witness three of the largest IPOs in history. SpaceX is targeting$1.5 trillion. OpenAI aims for$1 trillion. Anthropik is valued at$380 billion. Combined, they're at$2.9 trillion in potential market cap. The scale is unprecedented, but the real problem isn't the market cap, it's the float. Typical IPOs offer 15 % to 25 % of their shares to the public markets. This creates enough liquidity for price discovery while allowing founders and early investors to maintain control. Facebook floated 15 % at the$60 billion that you mentioned and actually traded down pretty much immediately, right?

18:58Jordi Hays:Google floated 19%. Alibaba floated 15%. At 15 % float, here's what these three IPOs would require. SpaceX would be$225 billion. Opening I would be$150 billion. Anthropic would be$57 billion. That's a lot of smackaroos. He was, yeah, a lot of dollars. He was comparing that to Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, and SoftBank, which were combined at the IPO. I believe Saudi Aramco raised$29 billion at a$1.7 trillion market cap, so he's making the case you can't really kind of model how the public markets will absorb these companies off of Saudi Aramco, even though from a sort of like top line market cap standpoint, it is a good proxy.

19:48Jordi Hays:We'll see what the labs end up doing. They are obviously wildly capital intensive businesses. And you can imagine they raise quite a bit more than the Aramco's or the Alibaba's.

20:02John Coogan:Saudi Aramco was such a wild ride. I feel like they were trying to IPO for like a decade.

20:08Jordi Hays:The San Francisco company? It is.

20:10John Coogan:Yeah. Founded in California. I remember hearing Saudi Aramco IPO rumors in 2015. I think it actually kicked off in 2016. They finally got out in 2019. It was the largest IPO ever. There were a million investment banks attached, going all over the world, marshalling capital.

20:28Jordi Hays:Anthropic dials back AI safety commitments. Competitive pressure prompts it to pivot away from a more cautious stance. Anthropic, the AI company known for its devotion to safety, is scaling back that commitment, The company said Tuesday it is softening its core safety policy to stay competitive with other AI labs. Anthropic previously paused development work on its model if it could be classified as dangerous, but it said it would end that practice if a comparable or superior model was released by a competitor, given that they are at the frontier. That kind of opens them up to, I would say, perpetually kind of avoiding some of their prior policies.

21:05Jordi Hays:Sure, sure, sure. The changes are a dramatic shift from two and a half years ago when the guardrails Anthropic published, guiding the development and testing of its new models, established the company as one of the most safety conscious players in the space. Anthropic faces intense competition from rivals, which regularly release cutting edge models. It's also locked in a battle with the Defense Department over how its clawed suite are used after it told the Pentagon it couldn't be used for domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal activities. Anthropic said the safety policy changes an update based on the speed of AI's development and a lack of federal AI regulations.

21:40Jordi Hays:Anthropic, which started as a AI safety research lab, has battled the Trump admin by advocating for state and federal rules on model transparency and guardrails. The admin has, of course, sought to curb states' ability to regulate AI. The obvious sort of criticism here would be that you were heavily focused on safety when you were far away from, I would say, leading in AI. And so switching up now that there's actually real competition.

22:09John Coogan:Switching up on their day ones.

22:10Jordi Hays:Switching up on their day ones. The safest. Now that there's real competition.

22:14John Coogan:Are they forgetting where they're going?

22:15Jordi Hays:Feels a little self-serving. It's possible the money changed them. It's possible the money changed them. it's possible they they always plan to switch up on their day one maybe once they got once they got to to the level they're at now it could just be that they realize like alignment's pretty easy and we don't need a yes what's this new study that's showing like they were doing some war war game simulation and and almost every model was choosing to drop nukes really that's crazy that's

22:44John Coogan:not good I don't like that at all the interesting impetus of like this line around the policy environment has shifted towards prioritizing AI competitiveness and economic growth while safety oriented discussions have yet to gain meaningful traction at the federal level. I still feel like there's a lack of communication around what safety orientation at the federal level means. Like yes, okay, we'll pass the bill that says the AI can't kill everyone. Like, obviously everyone supports that, but like what does it actually mean in practice? because I think part of why that's dangerous means million things to different people.

23:19Jordi Hays:Like, yeah, part of why I think it's fascinating is they've been pushing for regulation as much regulation as possible. Yeah. Seemingly. Yeah. And they're kind of saying, hey, we're not getting what we want. So now we're now we're just we're not even going to play by the own set of rules that we created for ourself because we just want to compete and win. Yeah.

23:40John Coogan:I mean, like going back to the protesters, there are protesters that would say like, like training on intellectual property is dangerous. It's dangerous to my career as a writer. It's dangerous to my career as an illustrator. And so like this, this question, like danger is just too vague. And no one has really been able to concretize it in a meaningful way. And I think that's why it's not getting traction on Capitol Hill.

24:04Jordi Hays:Yeah, I think there's there's just like so many ways that you can define safety. Like so if you read Dario's essays, this thing he brings up over and over is like, okay, we can't let AI get in the hands of like authoritarian government. Sure. So there's like a real like safety narrative that you could do, which is that like, regardless of if our models are like pretty safe, they still need to be better than like China's, for example. Yeah. Because if China gets ahead of us, authoritarian government, right, it's like very bad. So even if, you know, we're releasing models that are less like safe than we would like, As long as they're better than China's, that's still a pro-safety issue, right?

24:37Jordi Hays:Except they'll just be distilled within six weeks. Yeah, but obviously, I would be very surprised if Anthropic keeps the same guardrails of API access. Well, Buco Capital Bloke has a solution.

24:50John Coogan:He says it's simple. We kill Claude.

24:54Jordi Hays:It's simple. We kill the Batman. Well, that was in regards to the Sasspocalypse.

24:59John Coogan:Okay, okay. Who knows? There's so many headlines and the timeline moves so quickly.

25:05Jordi Hays:The anthropic antagonizing the Department of War, the open source community, the entire media industry, the general population, other developers, other labs, foreign governments, and nearly every single person on Earth. What is the plan here? Sell Claude subscriptions to aliens?

25:20John Coogan:It ain't easy having principles.

25:23Jordi Hays:Hackers use Claude to steal 150 gigabytes of Mexican government data. That's crazy. They told Claude they were doing a bug bounty. Claude initially refused. A hacker just kept asking and manages to successfully steal some documents. Apparently, it's four state governments, 195 million taxpayer records, voter records, government credentials.

25:50John Coogan:Anthropic investigated the claims, disrupted the activity, and banned the accounts involved. The company feeds examples of malicious activity back in the Claude to learn from it. In this instance, the hacker was able to continuously probe Claude until he was able to jailbreak it. I was listening to someone talk about like, the ability to jailbreak has generated me like tens of thousands of dollars in profit. It was kind of like a hustle mindset guy. And I was just laughing because whatever you're doing after you jailbreak it is probably not good and so you should probably stop. But he was talking about like, I can sell so many more courses now that I've jailbroken ChadGPT or whatever.

26:30Jordi Hays:Duran says not to worry. They'll hit usage limits before anything bad can happen. This was interesting. Rob Wiblin had a guest on his podcast. The guest is talking that saying every AI lab is working to make their AI helpful, harmless and honest. The guest thinks this is a complete wrong turn and aligning AI to human values is actively dangerous. Today, a nominative determinism because the guest's name is Max Harms.

27:01John Coogan:Max Harms. I feel like with that name, maybe you've got to go with Maxwell or something. I don't know. Perplexity Computer. Computer. Computer. Computer. Launch a Perplexity Computer vibreel. What is Perplexity Computer? Let's pull up this video. Perplexity, the official account says Perplexity Computer. Computer unifies every current AI capability into one system. It can research, design, code, deploy, and manage any project end to end. Okay. Hmm. So it should be able to get a soundboard app in the app store, right? Manage any project, code, deploy, design, research. It should be able to do that from start to finish one prompt soundboard in the app store using the tbpn sound effects which are available online which we have up there this is a good benchmark let's give it a try and you can

27:59Jordi Hays:give it a try at perplexity go check it out i'm just very curious to see how this does it feels like the again going from consumer llms to a net new product that is uh objectively uh just as competitive. And we'll see. Best sellers on Substack for finance are all doomers.

28:21John Coogan:We got to do TBB.

28:22Jordi Hays:And of course, the treaty is not. This is so obvious. No, this is.

28:25John Coogan:Yeah, this is. We need to truth zone this a little bit. A doomer. He's not a doomer. There's plenty of bullish. Very AI bull. But definitely shot to the top of virality and top of the charts on the back of doom. I live this on YouTube. Like you put a negative title up and you just get 10 times more views. but they're lower quality and so you got to balance all that out. It's really hard to go viral with something like everything's fine. Everything's going well. Don't worry. Don't click this because you're scared. Click this because everything's kind of the same as it always has been and you're going to be fine.

29:00John Coogan:And stuff's cool, but it's not really going to change that much. It's going to be pretty incremental. That is not getting clicks. You need to be you need to be telling telling a tall tale you need to be spinning a yarn it's a bull market in yarn spinning folks get ready get out the yarn and start spinning so uh more news from get the gong

29:19Jordi Hays:get the gong okay hit me tell me uh steven over at wop says we're excited to announce that tether the largest stable coin company in the world is making a strategic investment of 200 million into wap valuing us a billion dollars our partnership with tether marks a major step and building the world's largest internet market. Tether is committed to enabling everyone in the world to participate in the new internet economy. The way humans work and create value is changing fast. The world needs both an open internet market, giving people a platform to conduct business as well as a transparent payments network.

29:51Jordi Hays:Fast, cheap, global.

29:52John Coogan:Exactly. And so, yeah, fast, cheap, global.

29:55Jordi Hays:Mike Isaac is saying what we're all thinking. Ready for this to be over. PBH talking about the Warner Brothers, Discovery, Netflix.

30:05John Coogan:It's in the paper every single day. Every single day. Paramount increases Warner Bid. We get it. You guys want to acquire this company. Mark Zuckerberg is planning a stable coin comeback. They also have a banger deal with AMD. And if you head to the bar this weekend and you drink too much, you should just say that you were the victim of a distillation attack. That's the correct turn of phrase. Anyway, thank you for watching. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Have a wonderful day. You