Diet TBPN: October 28, 2025

0:00Our first guest of the show, Satya Nadella, the serial of Microsoft. There were a ton of bullet points in the announcement today. Can you just zoom out and explain it to me like I'm five? You've been in partnership with OpenAI for six years now. It's an important moment and the story continues. Sure. But the story actually got started, even the OpenAI one. I've known Sam for a long time. It started, I think, in 2016. In fact, we were. Azure was the first cloud provider. That's right. When OpenAI got started. In 2019, Sam came and talked about sort of, hey, we're going to really, we think the scaling stuff works.

0:35In retrospect, I mean, who would have thought, hey, I didn't put in that, you know, billion dollars saying, oh, yeah, this is going to be a one of a hundred bagger. I mean, that's not like what was going through our head. We kind of had a little bit of high risk tolerance. It keeps coming back to this moment when AGI will be declared. First step to me is even to get to broad intelligence. Forget sort of general intelligence. We've got to get rid of these jagged problems. And that, I think, is the first place to do. We will achieve more robustness, let's call it that, for different systems, right?

1:10So coding is a good one. I think the entire goal with GitHub and GitHub Mission Control and Agent HQ is can I, just like how I use compilers, can I use agents to generate better coding artifacts? So if you ask me about, you know, first, how do you get rid of this jagged intelligence problem is you build a great knowledge work system that is multi-agent, multi-model, multi-form factor, yet to a great benchmark and an eval where you can trust it at two nines, three nines, four nines. And until you achieve that, you're not going to be able to move and say, hey, we have anything kind of general intelligence.

1:48How are you thinking about the interplay between OpenAI and what you do internally at Microsoft? I have much more, like, again, my mindset is all platform, man. Like, hey, on Azure, do you run Windows? Yeah. Do you run Linux? Yeah. Do you run SQL Server? Yeah. Do you love Postgres? Absolutely. JotNet, Java. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Hey, I'm happy with OpenAI. I would love to have Anthropic, MAI, Turok, anyone. If Google wants to put Gemini on Azure, please do so. What is that like culturally? Like, what does it mean for the next Satya Nadella? Somebody who's working their way up in Microsoft, Do they need to be, okay, I'm building something internally, but my company isn't going to favor me?

2:26I need to fight it out with all my competitors across? We all grew up in that culture where it doesn't mean because it's always we're going to bring our pieces together. As a platform company, you kind of want to support everything. Office was born on the map before Windows was even born. Yeah, if you don't give people choice, developers here will churn, right? They'll find other platforms. The concepts Bill had when he started Microsoft was, hey, we're a software factory. We love all software categories and we're just going to go create software. And so to me, we definitely want to sort of have that same attitude to innovation.

3:03We definitely need to stitch our stuff together so that they come together to solve bigger and greater problems. If somebody is pursuing a career in tech, is becoming a great deals guy or deal maker, like an important path now? Yeah, you have this great investment and it has great return and no carry all the valuables to my shareholders. That's awesome. Maybe we should start a venture for... I think the thing you're touching on is something that actually platform companies should think about, which is what's the ecosystem upstream and downstream, right? To your point right now, we have to as an industry.

3:39The reality is let's take power, right? Which is if they sort of say intelligence is about tokens per dollar per watt, we've got to get efficient on all of it. In order to get more efficient on it, you got to really think about, even in our own industry, the token factory itself really getting better order of magnitude. This is like, again, a renaissance time for systems architect. Then the next barrier is going to be, man, can we generate energy faster? Can we build faster? Do you think you're more ROI focused than others that are throwing around big numbers? I'm always focused on long-term return.

4:14Well, and we're at a time right now where there's people that have come out and effectively said, I don't actually care about ROI. I just care about winning. You always have someone else willing to give you the billion dollars or the$10 billion. You can always be about winning. Sure, yeah. There's a ton. But at some point, that party ends and everybody needs to sort of have a plan. In that context, in these platform shifts, to be short-term oriented doesn't help at all. I always say long before it's conventional wisdom. I mean, if you look back, you asked how we put the billion. And the reality is we put the 10 billion.

4:53That's right. Or the 13 and a half was fully committed before it became a thing. Remember, that was all done before Chad GPT became a thing. It feels very possible to predict like a year out, two years out, and then 10 years out is extremely fuzzy. What's your view on that, given that going back to the original OpenAI investment and the original partnership, it seems like you've had at least really good six-year foresight abilities to invest against a six-year time horizon. But how are you thinking about managing over the next decade? One of the things about tech is as a percentage of GDP, you get around 4 % or 5%.

5:36If you ask me five years from now, 10 years from now, is that percentage going to be higher or lower? I think the answer is pretty straightforward. It's going to be higher. It's just a question, is it going to be 10 or 15? So why is that? Because the rest of the pie, the rest of the GDP would have grown faster. So that's why I always go back to at the end of the day, the only rate limiter here is the overall economic growth and the factors of sort of input to it. So tech as an input, I think AI and everything that it entails is going to be a core driver. And some of it will come from just this intelligence and its sort of continual march of capability.

6:17But it will also come from, I'll call it, great engineering and product making. That, I think, is going to be the big difference maker. I was talking to Eric Leiman at Ramp, who makes the show possible, of course. He had a question about what advice you would give to someone running a DECACOR, thousand plus employees in this age of spiky intelligence where there is the possibility that tools are going to get better very rapidly and maybe you don't want to scale up too fast and then have to do layoffs or retraining how do you think about managing human capital in what feels like an uncertain time does it feel more uncertain to you now than it did 10 years ago i think the key is learning the new production function this one is interestingly enough both the tech shift a business model shift because this is the first time you have marginal cost software.

7:07It's not like cards of the SaaS world, but true marginal cost. And three, the way you produce your artifact, your software is changing. So the product development process is completely getting ripped and replaced. Unlearning is the hardest part. It seems like the console wars are over. Take me through the journey. You're a peacetime CEO now. We're a peacetime CEO. The war's over. But take me through the evolution of the business model shift on the gaming side of the business. It's one of the most interesting pieces of Microsoft. Remember, the biggest gaming business is the Windows business. To us, gaming on Windows.

7:46And of course, Steam has built a massive marketplace on top of it and done a very successful job. First of all, now we're the largest publisher after the Activision. So therefore, we want to be a fantastic publisher. a similar approach to what we did with Office. We're going to be everywhere in every platform. So we want to make sure whether it's consoles, whether it's the PC, whether it's mobile, whether it's cloud gaming or the TV. So we just want to make sure the games are being enjoyed by gamers everywhere. Second, we also want to do innovative work in the system side on the console and on the PC.

8:22People think about the console PC as two different things. We built the console because we wanted to build a better PC which could then perform for gaming. And so I kind of want to revisit some of that conventional wisdom. But at the end of the day, console has an experience that is unparalleled. But most importantly, the game business model has to be where we have to invent maybe some new interactive media as well. Because after all, the gaming's competition is not other gaming. Gaming's competition is short-form video. It feels like the entire world's competition is short-form video. Is there some sort of advantage of being a hyperscaler at$4 trillion dollar company that you can go and retool a piece of the business over here, change the business model and have almost the privilege of not having shareholders come to you and beat you down about a slight shift in a business model in a subdivision.

9:14Diversity of business models, diversity of the portfolio that Microsoft has, has been helpful. But that said, I don't think you can take that and say somehow you can make it if you don't reinvent yourself. So I think what happens in tech, unfortunately, is that when these shifts happen, whether you like it or not, you have to first be relevant. It doesn't matter what the business model is. And so given the binary nature, you got to make it to the other side. But then the category economics matters because if you can't sustain long-term innovation, if there is no category economics, I mean, hyperscale is a great one.

9:51In fact, the best day in hyperscale business was the day Amazon announced their operating margins. Oh, AWS IPR. Yeah. You know, because that's when everybody knew hyperscale business is an unbelievable business. It's a commodity, but at scale, nothing is a commodity. To me, that is kind of going to be the key here. Think about our server business. It's super profitable. Yeah. Except it was one-tenth the size, but I look at it compared to Azure. So we sold a few servers, but man, we sell a lot of Cloud VM or containers. Who would have thought how expensive? The cloud consumption model is going to be in terms of people being able to sort of, it's kind of the Jevin's paradox that sort of really played out in a massive way.

10:34But we would line this gong and hit 27%. Wow, that's a good hit. That's a very strong hit. It's as big as possible. Oh, there we go. That is a fantastic signature. Thank you so much. Thank you for coming on. Thank you for having us. This is a really great time.