In short
The hosts discuss LinkedIn hostility and algorithms, then a quiz about global startup ecosystems. They cover a Big W click-and-collect refund chatbot experience, criticize ATO radio “terror” ads aimed at small business, and debate Australia’s Labor CGT changes (including the CGT “backdown” on concessions). They also mention other headlines: a KPMG scandal, Labor’s CGT shambles, ATO pressure on small business, and “Ferrari goes electric” and “Adore Beauty goes sideways” (mentioned as episode themes, but not detailed in the provided transcript).
Guest backgrounds
No guests appear in the transcript; it’s just hosts Adam Schwab and Adir Shiffman (with occasional references to Mike and Will in chat).
Key claims
LinkedIn video posts can get near-zero reach; abuse is increasing so blocking is necessary. The ATO is “terrorising” small business via radio ads. Labor’s CGT reforms are a “dog’s breakfast” that reduce incentives for risk-taking and change the cost of capital, pushing investment toward mature dividend payers. The CGT “50%” concession is constrained by complex eligibility and a $10m lifetime cap.
Notable examples
Dave Letterman/Howard Stern clip; Big W app chatbot refund; AHM/Medibank online claiming re-keying; Startup Genome-style city rankings (Silicon Valley #1, New York #2, London #3, Tel Aviv top five, Seoul #9, Tokyo #12, Bengaluru #15).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOPersonal Updates and Travel Plans
0:45 to 2:50
The hosts share their upcoming travel plans and personal anecdotes.
“London's like 36 this week, which is not pleasant.”
Emotional Support in Friendships
2:50 to 7:28
A candid discussion about emotional support among friends and personal experiences.
“But even when I post something, it will have some hundreds of responses to it, reactions and maybe 10, 20 ,000 reach.”
LinkedIn Engagement and Challenges
7:28 to 12:57
Hosts discuss their experiences with LinkedIn, including engagement and negative comments.
“I know, that's true, but you know that's what goes on.”
Startup Cities and Rankings Quiz
12:57 to 14:00
A quiz about global startup ecosystems and rankings of major cities.
“Yeah, and so I don't know where that fits, right?”
Critique of City Rankings
14:00 to 15:00
Discussing the validity of a city livability report and its rankings.
“Just because it's a political capital, not a communist capital.”
Introduction to Subscriber Giveaway
15:00 to 17:40
Details about the podcast's subscriber giveaway and recent articles.
“Well, I'll send you the link and you can do something.”
Discussion on Dictation and Writing
17:40 to 19:56
Exploring the use of dictation versus typing in writing processes.
“I've actually got an article coming up on SpaceX.”
Big W Refund Experience
19:56 to 23:24
Sharing a positive experience with Big W's refund process through their chatbot.
“The thing is, not many people can write.”
ATO's Radio Ads and Small Business Concerns
23:24 to 28:00
Analyzing the ATO's new ads targeting small business owners and their implications.
“You know everything that's going on in it.”
ATO's Terror Ads and Impact on Small Businesses
28:00 to 30:20
Discusses the Australian Taxation Office's radio ads and their effects on business owners.
“All right, I'll give you something before we move on.”
Show all 22 chapters
Capital Gains Tax Concessions: Government Backtracking
30:20 to 38:20
Explores the recent changes to capital gains tax concessions and their implications for businesses.
“So, Elbow and Jim Jim have semi-backed down on their much vilified budget, announcing last week that business had turned over up to$10 million.”
The Flaws in Current Tax Policy and Its Effects
38:20 to 42:00
Analyzes criticisms of the government's tax policies and their detrimental effects on entrepreneurship.
“This government loves old rich people, hates millennials, hates Mike, hates Joel, hates me, loves old people.”
Debate on CGT and Capitalism
42:00 to 50:42
Discussion on the implications of capital gains tax and its effects on workers and the economy.
“because instead of going and fighting that and getting$20 billion of lost tax from illegal tobacco, they're getting five billion from CGT changes.”
The KPMG Scandal Unveiled
51:00 to 56:00
In-depth analysis of the KPMG scandal, whistleblower protections, and corporate accountability.
“And this isn't a deep dive, but this intro is a bit of a deep dive as you've just pillared me during the break.”
KPMG Scandal: Unethical Practices and Leadership Fallout
56:00 to 58:56
Explore the unethical behavior of KPMG under Andrew Yates and its consequences.
“So the person who's taken the fall so far and who deserve to take the fall was former CEO Andrew Yates who led the firm when this behaviour occurred.”
Culture and Accountability in Corporations
58:56 to 1:02:08
Discuss the cultural issues in KPMG and the importance of accountability in firms.
“Yeah, but audit, you're representing shareholders.”
Comparing Corporate Hypocrisy and Misconduct
1:02:08 to 1:06:28
Analyze the hypocrisy of executives in light of corporate wrongdoing and its impacts.
“And I do think they can just stop it getting there as well.”
Ferrari's New Electric Vehicle: Market Dynamics
1:06:28 to 1:10:01
Dive into the reception and market implications of Ferrari's new EV model.
“I thought this would be really interesting.”
Luxury Brand Strategies: Ferrari and Hermes
1:10:01 to 1:12:01
Explore how luxury brands maintain exclusivity and demand.
“So I think it's a – There's still the demand for Birkin still massively seeds of supply.”
The Evolution of Electric Vehicles
1:12:02 to 1:14:10
Discussing the design and market positioning of electric supercars.
“Like it's just make it difficult for clients to buy.”
Adore Beauty's Market Challenges
1:14:11 to 1:19:34
Analyzing the recent struggles of Adore Beauty and the competitive landscape.
“There's so many great supercar EVs coming out of it.”
Investment Insights: Insider Movements
1:19:35 to 1:20:45
Examining insider selling and its implications for company valuation.
“It's currently 80, but it will go down more.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00And what about you, Joel? My girlfriend picked them all and I just pay her what she says that we owe. You're really a renaissance man, Joel. I'm Adam Schwab. I'm Adir Shiffman. And this is The Contrarians with Adam and Adir.
0:17And we are back. Episode 215. Our dear welcome. Hello. Our last episode in person till I bid farewell for a different country for a few weeks. It'll be nice. It should be nice. I'm visiting our London team. I'll visit our Barcelona team. I'll visit our Africa. Well, Africa. I'm going for safari, but it should be fun. Africa will be nice. I mostly care about weather, although in Africa, I suspect the weather will be hot. No, Africa, it's winter. Oh, South Africa. Yeah, okay. I see. Oh, I'm sure it's hot in like Egypt. Yeah, yeah. But do you see the weather in London? London's like 36 this week, which is not pleasant.
0:50That's terrible. That's like 50. There's some El Nino or something going on. Yeah, it's back. Is that what it is? El Nino's back. Is that the one? Yeah, I think around the world it's back. I see. Well, it's very nice weather in Melbourne. It's been great. Shocking. It's finally got cold this week, but like last week it was 20, which is pretty unheard of for June. I'm going to say something very earnest to start this podcast, which is, so we won't go into the hell of this, but there was something that happened last week. Something. You know what this is because you're on the chat. I didn't feel great about it.
1:19I've no idea what you're talking about. After a small amount of time interacting with me, I think people tend to work out there's a bit of an emotional overhead in interacting with me. And so I was feeling like very unhappy about something and not great about myself. And I posted it on the chat with you, Mike, and Will. Yeah. And what came back was like the nicest emotion that I'd ever had on a chat. Everyone was so supportive and so nice. I wasn't very supportive. You were very supportive. I thought it was Mike who was supportive. I said, this is the most supportive chat. Mike was like Florence Nightingale on that.
1:50Yeah, well, Mike is very supportive in general, I think. But the thing is, and I said to you, I say well clear that supportive shit No you didn't Now you talk a big game Because we're recording You know this is the thing This is what I wanted to say Firstly what I wanted to say I said this is the nicest chat I've ever been a part of And you said You said This is the exact opposite Of every other chat I'm on On WhatsApp And then I thought You know people would People that know Will Would guess Will is very supportive People that hear Mike It's obvious Mike is going to be supportive Genuine millennial And it's obvious he's going to be supportive But you People might not realise Are you sure we're supportive?
2:25I kind of want to go into the detail. I don't believe we're calling supportive. People might not realise, because you enjoy people throwing rocks at you, basically. People might not realise how supportive of a friend you are. But now I can communicate that and make you feel very – you're not great with emotion. So I can make you feel very uncomfortable on this podcast. And I'll let you off the hook though and say, and that will segue me into – so LinkedIn, that is a crazy platform. yeah so it used to be becoming twitter right oh god so you know this bit of this thing well we're not going to mention people's names because i feel like sometimes it's unfair we have a big of a bit of a megaphone with this podcast and other people don't and so i try to avoid punch up not punch down exactly exactly and really maybe i'd say i don't really want to punch at all but like with your boss if you punch them you gotta do what you gotta do right so anyway so i i had this weird experience where I'll say the nice bit first at the end of the week after a week that I felt like was a pretty hostile week in Australian business and politics there was a lot of uh agro wasn't there it was crazy anyways and so I go in and I find there's this beautiful clip that is from an old Dave Letterman show where he interviews um Howard Stern it's old and they basically do have this thing where for the first 22 minutes for the first half it's funny and then all of a sudden it's like they have this moment where the whole audience and the cameras disappear and they're just having this conversation between the two of them on a sofa and it was like it's so honest and open and I thought this will be a nice thing to post at the end of the week because you know I like the ears you know the comedy is like the highest ideal for me and so I'm going to post this thing and make people feel good at the end of the week usually when I post something you get way more, you get way more, I don't know what it's called, distribution or reach than I do.
4:16But even when I post something, it will have some hundreds of responses to it, reactions and maybe 10, 20 ,000 reach. Like rage bait obviously gets a lot more posts. Well, this is the thing. So I post this and I'm used to getting, let's say, 20 ,000 of like whatever LinkedIn calls reach, right? Yeah, whatever that means, right? Basically, four people like this thing and it got no reach. I saw it. All right. Well, you didn't like it. No. the LinkedIn algorithm it didn't actually I couldn't sometimes I couldn't watch it anyway there was a reason why I didn't like it well the LinkedIn algorithm I think it takes one look at stuff like that and thinks this is not going to drive tons of engagement I think video does video tend to get good reach on LinkedIn well I did a link in the comments because a long time ago someone said to me you can't put video links into the actual I think it punishes you either way now but yeah like basically unless you I think do you think that LinkedIn reads the posts now before it allows them to post it or not?
5:12Yes. And so then on the flip side, so that was, I found that very disappointing. I think unless you get a couple of comments quickly in the first hundred impressions and then you start getting likes, it just doesn't give you any, doesn't give you any. It could be. And then I posted something which was much more typical of like what's going on at the moment. And that went bananas. And then, and you would have seen some of the comments I got, which were not very nice. I think people think, like, my public profile is 1%, let's call it. And I think people that look at someone that has a public profile of even that percentage, they forget that they've got human emotions and, like, people just write nasty stuff.
5:47I used on 20 years to block people all the time because there's so many crazy right and left-wing people on there. But I've actually found out I have to start blocking people on LinkedIn now. Yeah, it's crazy. I probably blocked 20 people on LinkedIn. That means they just can't see a post, they can't comment, you blow the post away. I don't mind somebody else. there's a guy an ex-labor guy called chemical if we have regular jowths with i don't i didn't block him because i've actually because he's a senior lobbyist and he's obviously a senior labor guy i don't mind jousing with a guy like that who's a smart guy we may very much differ on our views but but it's generally respectful you know often funny way but then you got these i'd call them flogs who use linkedin like twitter and think that we're just going to leave them on there like if you're going to be a flog you just get blown away and they abuse like they abuse you personally Yeah.
6:28Now, you probably take that better than I do. I'm getting better at it, right? But I generally don't take that so well. Sometimes I'll just block. I won't even get engaged. I'll just block unless the person is a substance. But you never feel badly as a person about someone you don't know abusing you on LinkedIn. Am I right in saying that? Do you? Would you feel bad about that, Mike? Yeah, of course. So I feel like I got a bit – I get – listen, if someone I have had an interaction with what's personally mean stuff to me on LinkedIn. I find that quite hurtful, to be honest. If I knew someone, it'd be very different.
7:01So I find that quite... So that's kind of what happened. I find that quite hurtful. But even if random people that I don't know, because they're so identified, they're identified on LinkedIn, that used to stop people. I used to think that... Exactly. Because your job's on there. That's right. I used to think anonymity was Twitter's problem. But I've come down to the view that the main problem with social media is human beings using it. anonymity is worse clearly definitely it's worse and then you've got bots who aren't even real and that kind of stuff and so I think I don't want to say this but like LinkedIn that was the last bastion of civilised could be emotional debate but it was civilised debate people could get worked up and now the level of abuse is definitely increasing I think it's going to block people just it takes two seconds you go block, block, bang, gone and then you know what people do people post these posts I don't really block people very much, but people post these posts.
7:57This guy blocked me. That's their post. They've got 100 followers. I know, that's true, but you know that's what goes on. That's what happens on Twitter all the time. I can do it once, but it's a real hassle to keep going on and on. I think nobody cares about it. I was only really on Twitter for a couple of years of COVID. I used it a lot. It was actually really effective. You post on Twitter and then it'd be on some news thing like an hour later. I find that with LinkedIn. I find that if you post on LinkedIn and you've got more than no profile, at some point someone will pick it up and put it in an article somewhere, which, you know, I'm happy with.
8:31The funny thing is for you, because travel trade, travel press is a bit unique. It's actually quite interesting and they talk about travel stuff and sometimes it isn't that much to write about. So I often find I'll write on, whether it's corporate travel management or something like that, and I'll do some rando posts on LinkedIn and then the next day it's like some major article on the travel press, which is always pretty amusing. Well, and that's, you should feel good about yourself with that because most people that are posting and not turning into articles. So that's how I always feel about this.
8:56I just say to myself, like, it's better that people care than no one cared at all about what I had to say. Even when they're, like, writing nasty stuff to me, I try to remind myself of that. You see that article last week, I spoke with Paddy Durkin from the AFR, who I really like. He sent me a message saying, I'm writing an article on Elbow, that CGT stuff, give me a quote. And I gave him a quote. And I was reading, like, the daily AFR, since, like, a couple emails in the evening. I was reading, I thought that article looks interesting. It's like dagger to the heart of work. Anyway, that was my quote.
9:26It was a good result. You don't like anything more than you like the stuff that comes out of your own mouth. Oh, it's so good. That is for sure. It's the best. You know what we haven't done for a while? A quiz? Yes. There you go. I've got something to ask you. I haven't given you a quiz for ages actually. You haven't. That's because I'm hopeless at them. That's why they're so good. All right. So you'll like this quiz and everyone can play. This is the kind of – because the quizzes that you play, that you came up with, they are so obscure I don't even know where to start with those quizzes but this is a very easy everyone can play at home kind of quiz okay so this is a list you laugh now Mike let's see how you go let's see good at quizzes usually well this this people should be good at this quiz okay this is a quiz there's this very reputable study that looks at the size of each startup ecosystem in every city and produces this very detailed report I read the report to kind of look at cities that I knew and see whether I thought it was good.
10:21I think this is a good report. I'd love to be able to say where this is from. I've forgotten. But it's like what startup muster in Australia copied. It's called Startup Genome, maybe. Have you heard of that? No. I think it might be called Startup Genome. Anyway, it ranks cities slash regions, I guess, not states. Like Silicon Valley, obviously. So that's number one, right? Tel Aviv, presumably. All right. So who do you think is number two? So this is – but let me give the quick intro. So this is the biggest cities for startup value in the world. Actually. The biggest cities. So number one, Silicon Valley, not a city, ironically, but a region.
10:55So number one. Number two. Town originally. Number two. Well, everything was a town originally. You don't understand how growth works. The challenge of this is it can be influenced by extreme values. So there could be some like random. It is influenced, but none of this would shock you. Well, Tel Aviv too? Tel Aviv is not two, but it's in the top five. What's number two? Mike, have a guess. Oh, God. I'm going to sound stupid whatever I say. Just think of big cities. New York. Yes, number two. New York's number two. I thought LA would be good than New York. So LA is number six. Oh, really? So New York, but LA was, so I can see a little graph.
11:29LA was at four for a while. Yeah. And it's fallen. There's lots of stuff in LA. It's fallen. It's something AI business in LA. And New York was equal number two last year with something else, and the other city fell to three. I don't really know how defining startups is part of the problem. Which cities do you think are big on startups in the world? Seoul. Seoul is not. There is an Asian city on this list. There's a couple actually. Tokyo? That Seoul is not. Tokyo is 12. It would be Shanghai. Oh, I just lied to you. Seoul is nine. Oh, there you go. Oh, that was a great call. I wouldn't have guessed Seoul.
12:01Seoul is nine. Shanghai is on here. It's number 11. So interestingly, it's a couple of spots below Seoul. But we still haven't done number three. It's not an Asian city. Boston? Boston's on there. Boston is number five. Okay. Just below Tel Aviv. Austin is 19. It goes to 20. It really depends how you define. Well, this is a city that's much bigger than all of those cities. Yes, London is number three. So what's interesting about this – I think there's some definitional issues here. All right, but if you look at one, two, three, four, five, it's not that surprising. Can you know how many start-ups coming out of London?
12:32What, Revolut maybe? Yeah, yeah. London is really a growing start-up scene for sure. So Silicon Valley – Can you name something? Name a couple from London. Think of hundreds of Silicon Valley start-ups. Well, yeah. I would more say – That's it. And then I'm in London. It depends where you do the cutoff for startup, I think it comes down to, right? Like, so in London, so Revelate's the bank, is that right? But there's quite a few big fintechs that have come out of London. Wise, maybe, but they're a public company now. Yeah, and so I don't know where that fits, right? I don't think London does have a lot of startup activity, but what you have is...
13:02Back to the point of London's bigger than LA. Well, US Silicon Valley, US New York, which is Silicon Alley, that's what New York's called. Then London, okay, you're debating that. Then Telev4. The amazing thing about Tel Aviv is there isn't from seven to four over the last few years. Three years, war. There's been a war in Tel Aviv. That probably helps. Well, it doesn't. Well, I tell you what, it doesn't help though. It doesn't help because it shouldn't help. People are in the army. Like all of these founders, literally they're going to the army. Foreigners are scared to invest VC money in the country.
13:33And yet it's risen to number four with no population. So Silicon Valley has got a pretty big population. You're huge. And Stanford. London huge. Yeah. Tell us if you've no population. Boston, Los Angeles. Boston's obviously got MIT and Harvard to all this degree. Yeah, and there's a recent catapult in Boston, right? Like, it's a great place. LA, I heard your comments about LA. Beijing. Beijing? Yeah. Interesting. This sounds ridiculous. No way Beijing's better than Shanghai. Well, why not? Just because it's a political capital, not a communist capital. Well, this is what I suggest, and just, I'm not going to round it out, but the other one that I thought was very interesting is down at number 15, it's Bengaluru Karnataka probably said it wrong Indian Bangalore yes exactly and so I'm going to say what you say what's that I'm going to say what you say this list is trash I don't think it so I would usually agree with you put it in the garbage can but you can you can go and download this report it's long and it's got information about every city in a lot of detail you should look at it it sounds like the report that claims Melbourne's the most livable city you know that piece of junk report well It's clearly not based on knife crimes.
14:40Since you didn't ask me where Melbourne and Sydney are on this report, I'll tell you. Sydney is 26 and Melbourne is 30. That feels about right. So you should go and look at this report. I understand why you're critical of it, because you didn't bring the quiz to the podcast. No, I'm critical because it makes no sense. I love a good quiz, regardless of the source. I think that makes no sense. All right. Well, I'll send you the link and you can do something. Like Beijing better than Shanghai. Well, you can do something that's become very unpopular in this world, and that is form opinions based around facts and data, which is no one wants to do that anymore.
15:15All right, well, I thought that's because we'll get a better response. Maybe if you would have done better, it would have gotten a better response. I thought I did okay. I thought I did well. You did well. You've got well done. We've missed a career over there. This is like the podcast that now has turned into, if you want any praise, you have to give it to yourself. I think it's been episode one. Just a quick touch on, I would have got Will to do it, but he's off more important things. But our fortnightly giveaway for our subscriber giveaway. So we want someone to subscribe both to the podcast, but more importantly, also subscribe to our amazing newsletter at thecontrarianspod.com.
15:52So we saw last week I wrote an article on Luke Sayers, a 2 ,000 word tri-tise. How is it? Tri-tise? Tri-tise. Tri-tise. Well, it was 2 ,000 words of comedy gold, as you would call it. Yeah, it was very good. It was probably the best reaction I've ever got to. I've written like 1 ,500 articles. That's probably up there. People have got messages from all on Sunday. If you haven't had a read of the Luke Sayers article, have a good read of Luke Dick Pick Sayers. It goes into the real background of pre-Dick Pick Day. So Luke was a controversial character at PwC. He was fined for having alleged relationships with people with staff.
16:23So there's a lot of stuff that hasn't really been reported much. So I think he's synthesised about 25 different articles into one. Joe's written some amazing stuff on Luke. but this is a pretty controversial guy who was Teflon for so long, but Teflon's really come off. In part. Well, I think mostly. I think there are still people that rally around him and support him. Oh, there's your Dan Andrews and your Andrew Bassett, who are his mates. We'll get Dan Andrews on the podcast. That'd be a good yes. That'd be a good one. I don't think he'll come. I'll send him a message. So this fortnight's winner is Sally.
16:56So Sally, we'll reach out. $500 luxury games. Great prize. When are you bringing your vouchers to tell you? You're meant to bring an Eva voucher, a Catapult voucher. Next couple of weeks, all right, yeah. What about your Daily Blooms voucher? Well, it's up to the founders. See, the thing is, you're the founder of this business. Yeah, but you're like the Svengali of these places. I've got no influence. You're like the god of these places. I'm sure if you call Courtney at Amazing Daily Blooms, we'll give you incredible marketing. You know, Courtney, she does not need anything from me. She is doing a perfectly great job running that business.
17:26I'm sure Courtney will give us a couple hundred dollar voucher a week. You message her. You're going to have more luck with her than I am. But Sally has won a$500 luxury voucher. Obviously, money can't buy. So congratulations, Sally, for being such an amazing subscriber. And we will have another winner in a couple of weeks. So jump on contrarianspod.com. I've actually got an article coming up on SpaceX. I've almost finished it. You'll have an article if you actually bother to write one, which I'm sure will be amazing. I dictate my articles. Do you dictate them or write them by hand? Do you? Old school.
17:52I find the thoughts flow more easily than I dictate them. You're like a lawyer from the 1980s. Or like René Rifkin. Remember that guy? He used to dictate his... I hope you don't have him in jail for his own training. Well, I mean, I think he ended up going to jail for a very small minority of his crimes, right? A very small minority of his crimes. As a very Al Capone tax evasion. So he was the original guy who made a fortune out of tip sheets. Absolutely. It was actually a great tip sheet, in fairness. But do you know how... I think I've told you this before. Do you know how we did it? He basically stood in his office in Double Bay, looking out the window.
18:23With a cigar. Yeah, with an addictaphone. Yeah. And with a little tape in the addictaphone. And he dictated for 10 minutes and then gave it to an off-sider. And that became the Rifkin report. It was 10 minutes or 15 minutes of work every week. It was great, actually. It was a great report. Presumably every buy that he recommended he already owned the stock in, without a doubt. I think he had like two subscribers. Everybody just forwarded it on to 300 people. No, he made a lot of money out of that thing. An astonishing amount of money. It was an early first-ever subscription email business, really.
18:50Back in the day when… In the late 90s. So there's a publication called The Intelligent Investor that's now owned by InvestSmart, a public-listed company with Paul Clitheroe. Remember Paul Clitheroe? Money fame. As the chairman. And so I'm not sure how that thing's going. But back in the day, that intelligent investor, before the whole world had jumped on the Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham bandwagon, that thing, I subscribed to it. Wow, in Venice. Yeah, but that was maybe 25 years ago I subscribed to it. It was like, it would be$600,$700 at that time. And I had a lot of subscribers. That was a cash machine.
19:23Yeah. So you used to be able to make a lot of money out of these things. Yeah. I had a nice experience. So we are looking for an article for you. Potentially this week we'll get one. I tried to dodge that topic. I remember when I was a really young lawyer, people still use dictaphones. This is like a court of the early 2000s. I couldn't believe people. To me it just felt completely inefficient, people dictating letters and stuff. I thought, I never dictated anything. And you had to, like, there was a whole skill to dictation and then you get sent down to like the typing pool. I was actually pretty fast.
19:51I just typed myself. I could never understand. Eventually dictation went by the way of the dodo. Well, you say it's gone out. The thing is, not many people can write. No, but not many people can, like, being able to type stuff out of your mind and onto a computer screen now, there's a definite skill or talent in that. And so journalists can do it. Some are great. You're very good at doing that. But I think a lot of people still find it easier to speak. And you say it's on the way out and no one does it. But there's this thing that's become quite popular recently called AI. And that AI is all speech to text.
20:24Like when you write an email, like if you write a long email now, are you typing it? Yeah. I would not do that. Serious? Yeah, I'll dictate the email. Really? Yeah, there are some problems in that like it's often not – like forget about dictating anything with Siri. Even a text message comes out as bananas, right? But if I go and I'm dictating something onto a computer, like it's actually pretty good most of the time. Do you dictate stuff, Mike, or not? No, I like typing. You like typing. I don't really like voice to text. I'm a big typer, yes. Yeah, us millennials type a lot. Actually, I will use sort of dictation when I'm in the car, though, obviously, because I can't text.
21:02When I hear the word dictation, what do you think of? Summer High Thai? Jonah from Summer High Thai. I don't even know what that is. It's an old ABC TV show. That was an incredible show. Now it's been cancelled, sadly, but it was an unbelievable show. I love that TV show. That was peak Chris Lilley. It was unbelievable. Are we still loading this? Is this podcast still recording?
21:25I had this experience this week, which was, I'm going to take a risk now and go back to business content. I had this experience with Big W this week. Do you buy from Big W or not? I like Big W. Nothing against it. I like them. They're cheap. I don't like to buy stuff generally. I'm like a minimalist. So I went and I bought this gift for my daughter and I said I was going to do click and collect. And then I told her, I said, I got this thing for you. And she said to me, you already bought that for me like six months ago, the same thing what was it it was like a you know she loves this show Wednesday so it was a piece of Wednesday paraphernalia okay and I'm like oh god I don't want to go and click and collect that thing so I go and started to a refund process have you had an issue with this before and so I probably have this isn't your first click and collect rodeo from memory no but click and collect I had an issue with Essex with my click and collects before I went overseas that's right yeah that was bananas I don't even know if I got that's what I'm thinking of I don't even know if I got double charged from that I think you got it back in the end Hopefully I didn't.
22:22It's long forgotten. So this, I go on and it was this incredible experience. Basically, I go into the Big W app. Big W is Woolworths, right? Big W is Woolworths. I go into the Big W app. I say, go into the chat. What do you want? I'm like, I want to get a, I want to get a, I've changed my mind about something and don't want to pick up a click and collect. I type that into this chat bot. Yeah. It comes back and it knows what I'm talking about and it says, see, you want a refund for this? Did it identify you? Did you send me a one-time password? Well, I logged in. I logged into my Big W app to do it.
22:53And then it says, here are your orders. Here are your recent orders. Which order does it pertain to? I clicked the order. It said, no problem. So do you want to just have this refunded? Sure. Okay. I clicked it. It said, good. Is there anything else I can help you with? I said, I clicked the no. It then said, I'm not really sure what you're trying to ask me. Can you elaborate more? So the wheels fell off at that point in time. But then it said, like, someone will get back to you in 24 to 48 hours. two hours later I get an email saying your order's been cancelled and your money's been refunded that is a I mean it is a chatbot people have got lots to say about chatbots sometimes they just do chatbots when they could have done apps because they want it to be a chatbot but this worked seamlessly this is probably the best deployment of this type of thing that I've seen from a from a major enterprise we've done that on chat for ages your advantage is that you run this business.
23:46You know everything that's going on in it. You push this business hard and essentially everyone in this company, no matter what level they're at, is accountable to you in some way and so you can do things that are good business things. Imagine trying to run Big W and doing this in Big W and the hoops you would have to jump through. Can you imagine when you do a chatbot what the testing is for the chatbot? They would just go and say, write things into the chatbot that are total profanity or sex related or whatever it is and let's see how the chat you have to go through that I don't know if you're going through that at Luxury Escapes it would be a lot of hoops to get through I'm not sure we handle it for weird people calling up but we've been using Sierra for voice chat so the written chat this wasn't voice it was written but we're using voice chat now and voice chat's getting a lot better so we're up to so we basically look at there's two metrics we use one is like how many times is it like really bad because you know like someone getting cut off or talking over them or how many times is it bad and it's down to sub 10 % now which is pretty good so 90 plus percent is either moderate or good and it's like 60 good so it's getting a lot better and we're now solving more than 10 percent of cases over the phone so you can say i want a credit or refund it will generally do like a lot of stuff's really hard we can't do it but anything that's relatively simple you can actually do it over the phone whose voice is it your voice it's a female voice uh i think it's an american voice actually but sierra's been great so we've used to gloricate the australian guys who are a bit better at the written chat not the the online voice one isn't quite that sweet spot yet.
25:12But Sierra, which is Brett Taylor's business, I think it's a 10 billion plus now. Actually, no, it could have been a 30 bill now. They've been actually really good. So that's a great progression. I think people with businesses that are consumer-facing should be testing out this stuff because I've seen the future of good service from mediocre companies with Big W. And it was pretty good, right? The fact that they can deploy that and it can work. That's a pretty simple request. Well, you say it is, but you would know this. Like, the chatbot part of it is not the tricky part of it. The interfacing with legacy systems is the tricky part of it.
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25:48And they've managed to do it, like, I don't know what happened behind the scenes after I did the request, right? Because I'll tell you a funny story. When I was first advising health insurers, like, in the 2000s, maybe 2010s, I got them to do online claiming. So if you used a health insurer, you would know you can do online claiming. So I kind of really pushed them to do that. You were the one who did that. Yeah, because with my global reviews business, I've got two claims to fame. One is that, and one is I got Qantas and Virgin in New Zealand to do one-way fares online. So you didn't have to book return fares.
26:20I wasn't the strategist, but I pushed them hard and said, we're starting to see this in other markets. You've got to bring it to Australia. They used to have one-way fares, but they were like the same price as a return fares. That's right. And Qantas, to their credit at the time, a guy called John Lonergan was running their online part. I think he works for Amadeus or something now. Who works for Qantas, I think. Yeah, who works for Qantas. And basically, he had this attitude, which is we should just copy everyone else around the world. People think we're this big, powerful company, but actually we're tiny compared to these global players.
26:47Let's just copy what other people do. Apple's made a business of copying, really. He's really good. And so what happened with health insurance, though, is really interesting. So I think the first one that did it was AHM before they were bought by Medibank out in Wollongong. I didn't realise I bought it. I thought AGM was just Medibank started as a discounter. They bought them. So AGM was a business, Australian Health Management, based down in Wollongong, or up if you're from Melbourne. And so my business partner, Adam Goodvac, used to go out and spend time with them and give them advice. And I think they were there, and PeopleCare, who are still independent, a little fund, very good fund.
27:23And so what they would do at the beginning is they would have an online form and you would submit all your information. And then literally it would go to a printer and it would print out all the information that you submitted online and someone would re-key it into their legacy system and process the claim. So it was just like, you know, like pay no attention to the man behind the curtain kind of moment. But people thought it was amazing. This is like 2010 probably. And that's how it started. I don't think that's what's going on at Big W. I think they probably did integrate it. There's too much volume, right?
27:56Yeah, nah. I thought it was really impressive. Have you got more stuff? Come move on some business stuff. I've always got more. Was that not business stuff? It was technically business. All right, I'll give you something before we move on. How about this? Have you seen the ATO's terror ads that they're running? I heard them on the radio. Okay, so the ATO's running these ads on the radio. I think this is because the government's so desperate to call it cash. Terrorizing how bad the CJT laws are? No, they're trying to terrorise people. So there's an ad on the radio that has a small business person talking to their friend.
28:25And I won't go through the whole context of it, But the gist of it is, if you don't declare absolutely every last dollar of income that you receive, the ATO is all-knowing, all-seeing, and it's going to fine you thousands of dollars, and it's all-powerful, so you better watch out. It's like the AIDS Grim Reaper campaign. It is, and it's like, I've never heard... So, this is the ATO buying inventory off radio to run these ads. I've never heard this before. Yeah. You think this is because they're trying to just desperate to collect revenue? Probably. What's going on here? I expect so. I thought that was like, because the ATO, they work for you.
29:05Yeah. And me, like we pay them. And I'm all in favour of them going and getting taxes that people haven't paid. That's their job, right? Pay your taxes. How about hitting the cigarette, the illegal cigarette people? That'd be a start. Yeah, but like why? That$20 billion of revenue I've lost there. If you don't pay, if one doesn't pay their tax. Yeah. I'm all in favour of the ATO going and collecting that. I'm not in favour of them terrorising small business people. Like, I really don't support this kind of thing. And, like, that's the minister I want on, the finance minister. I don't think Katie Gallagher is going to be coming on this podcast anytime soon, to be honest.
29:42Oh, yeah, that's a fair point. You've got to tone it down a bit. Like, yeah, tell people to pay their taxes. Yeah. But don't tell them, like, we're all knowing and all seeing and we're going to tear your arms off if you don't pay. I was very shocked. We should have a government that hates business. We know that. Well, I was very... They hate business people. They hate aspiration. They hate hope. They hate wealth. They hate anything like that. They love unions. And as Tim Wilson said last week, they love unions and public service workers. That's who they say they govern for. And Tim got it 100 % right.
30:06Actually, I think the ATO reports to the treasurer directly. So we have to get the treasurer on. Yeah, I think even less chance to get him on, to be honest. But in fairness, could be a new treasurer soon, I think. Could be. AC. Could be. Yeah. Yeah. Speaking of taxes, can we move on to the CGT back down? It was a pretty big week. So, Elbow and Jim Jim have semi-backed down on their much vilified budget, announcing last week that business had turned over up to$10 million. We're eligible for a 50 % capital gains tax concession, as well as, obviously, inflation-charged discount on active assets that are sold after 12 months.
30:41This is up from a$2 million level. I'm so happy that you've started with this, because I never get to criticise you with stuff like this. But can I just say the following? Yeah. Are you a shill for the government? I'm still going. A back down. A back down. I haven't finished my – You should call this a back down. How is that being a shill? You said the word back down. This is not a back down. How is that being a shill? I'm criticising them. Well, maybe it's not a shill because they wouldn't say the word back down, but they say the word carve out. But this is none of that. This is smoke and mirrors.
31:10This is the shell game, as you would call it. Anyway, keep going. The government also announced a near impossible to achieve 50 % discount for innovative businesses where the startup must have less than$50 million in turnover and that any shares must be new equity issued by a company less than 10 years old or 15 years old in case of biotech, medtech and deep tech. Also, the lifetime cap of the so-called generous discount, which is still pathetic by global standards, has been capped at$10 million. This means many successful entrepreneurs and investors will be much more inclined to leave the country rather than give up subsequent gains.
31:40This has happened in virtually every jurisdiction that intentionally targets wealthier people. Despite the backdown, the inept Labor but government needs to be pilloried with Chanticleer. Putting it best and noting, the government seems so focused on redistributing the pie and doesn't appear to have any ideas on how to grow it. James Thompson added, what Albanese and Sharmas don't seem to get is the fact that the CGT reforms will change the cost of capital and push investors towards higher yielding, more mature companies that pay big dividends and is a byproduct of these changes. I totally agree with that line.
32:10They don't realise that it will change the cost of capital. they have no understanding of that concept whatsoever yeah and at the heart of the debate is a simple idea we want to incentivize risk-taking not decentivize it which is the point you're making yeah i mean i think are you attempting to criticism me firstly no no i just didn't like it it's not all right i sincerely apologize for calling you a shill because they wouldn't say back down but i don't think this is a back down this is basically you know like like i call this you know the Simpsons episode where Homer and Chief Wiggin are in a hole and they say, how are we going to get out?
32:46And they say, we'll dig our way out. And then Chief Wiggin yells, no, dig up, stupid. Like this feels like that moment to me. Firstly, I don't understand some of this. Like I legitimately don't. So this$10 million lifetime discount. There's two$10 million things which make it super confusing. But you can claim maximum$10 million lifetime discount. There's a$10 million revenue cap at the same time as a$10 million personal lifetime discount. We'll come back to the revenue cap. But the lifetime discount, what happens after that 10 mil? You don't get the discount. You're paying 47%. You don't get any discount?
33:19No discount? Even Daniel Petrie, who I was obviously very critical of a few weeks ago. Daniel Petrie's finally regained some backbone and criticised the changes. So good on Daniel for changing his views. Hang on. You're saying to me what you think is the case. It is the case. It's not what I think is the case. They literally said this is the case. In your whole life. Your whole life. From the 1st of July, 2027, you start counting how many dollars you claimed as a discount. Yes. Is that for everything or just for this 25 % retention? I presume it doesn't include grandfathered stuff because that will completely just make the grandfathered stuff.
33:54Hang on. So what's happened here is they've basically said, we're going to replace everything with one system, which is indexation of the cost base. We're going to call that system. Okay. and then they got pummeled and they said, okay, we're also, hang on, I should say, we're going to replace everything with that one system except if you buy a new house, a new property as an investor. Yeah. Then you can use this other system a 50 % discount on your marginal tax. Or stuff you already own you get a valuation. or grandfather stuff. Okay. So, so then you can say, that's fine. Now they got pummeled.
34:30We're going to bring in another part of this which is if you qualify for all of these hoops that no one is ever going to understand. Or then you can also claim this 50 % discount thing. Up to 50 million. Up to 50 mil. Yeah. But then there's this$10 million cap. How does that fit? I don't understand how any of this fits together. It's like you're trying to do a puzzle, but people have poured in pieces from eight different puzzles and now make the picture. That doesn't fit together. You can't make this picture. I'm hesitant to assume stuff here because these people are so stupid, but how I would assume is that$10 million lifetime cap is for stuff that isn't covered by these exceptions.
35:09That's the only assumption I can make that makes any sense at all. So you think that if I trade – But if people are so dumb, who knows? Hang on. If I trade shares – Yeah. By the way, I should also point out – so is this discount still you have to hold the asset for a year? Yes, you still have to hold for a year. So cost-based indexation is still one year holding the asset. Yeah, the year thing, whatever. That's always been the case. All right, but I just want to know if they've changed that. No, they've changed that. So if I go and invest in shares, then over my entire life, I get to claim a deduction on$10 million worth of inflation-adjusted gains.
35:42Yeah, you get the discount. But on the first dollar after$10 million, do I just lose all discounts? That was the original budget. You'd never had a discount. So they've added some exceptions to the non-discount, essentially. No, but I got – hang on. I got a discount. The indexation is a discount of sorts, right? So do I keep my indexation over the$10 million or not? I presume so. So I can always get indexation. I think everything's always indexed. I see. So indexation exists. But indexation doesn't help fast-growth companies. It only helps the slow, boring dividend payers. But it helps people that buy and sell shares.
36:12Boring, slow-growth dividend payers. Sure. But if you want to invest in a fast-growing company, it's useless. So my fallback is I always get cost-based indexation. Yeah. And sometimes I might qualify to get a 50 % reduction of my marginal tax rate. Yeah. But I have to jump through certain hoops, which are hard to get through. And even if I jump through those hoops, I have a lifetime maximum of$10 million. I think the lifetime maximum is outside the hoops, but I have to clarify that. But I think what we also forget is this so-called generous 50 % discount isn't actually that generous on global terms.
36:47Most countries are less than 23%. So we're actually, we're a high-taxing CGT government before this disaster government came in place. No, you're right. We can say this. Sweden, not exactly known for being business friendly. Although, by the way, you know they're much more business friendly now. Like, they've really diverged from other... Don't forget they're heroic over COVID. They're the only government that didn't pathetically lock... Enclose their citizens in their houses. But, you know, they've... Like, if you look at Sweden and Norway and their social infrastructure and their capitalist economies, they've really diverged in the last decade.
37:20Sweden didn't have that. I know. Yeah, that's true. And so, Sweden, I think, has a CGT cap. this so-called socialist country, has a CGT cap of 30%. That's their CGT cap. I think it's usually lower. Well, for some stuff, perversely, some of these countries in the Nordics, I can't remember which one, one of them has a 22 % CGT cap for property and Sweden has a 30 % cap. And so my point is this. Our cap is effectively 45%. If you work it out for a fast-growing business, you'll pay 45 % tax on the top, right? You're talking about inflation-adjusted. Inflation-adjusted, yeah. If you've got something with a very low-cost base, that grows dramatically, so the cost base is low relative to where you end up, you're going to pay about 45 % tax on it.
38:02And so it is 50 % higher than the Swedish cap. Like, that is insane. Stalin's Russia had a lower CTT rate than Dimji and Albo. They were massively supportive of private enterprise in Stalin's Russia, but neither is this government, to be honest. They're on par. So I would say... Unless you're old and you're in super, then you pay 10%. So your solution here is being old. That's actually the real. If you're old and rich, you're fine. This government loves old rich people, hates millennials, hates Mike, hates Joel, hates me, loves old people. Well, in fairness, I might hate Mike and Joel as well.
38:34That might be a low bar. No. But I will say, so the thing is, we can say this is crazy, but what we can also say is I think it's fair to say we are at least slightly above the average understanding of Australians when it comes to these types of things. And we can't understand this. It's a complete dog's breakfast to try to put the pieces together. I think it's strange to know they're being shafted here, though. I think people are smart enough for most people. There are some people who just think, I'm never going to make any money, so I'll let someone else pay that tax. But I think a lot of, certainly a lot of business owners, a lot of young people who want to be business owners realise they're getting shafted here.
39:08So I want to say, give you a comment that Albanese said, and I think that this one comment demonstrates a complete lack of belief in capitalism and a capitalist system. He says, what I say to small business owners, so these are people that probably have a mortgage on their house or personal guarantees in order for their business to operate and are taking substantial personal risk. I don't have to sell this to you. And for at least some extended period of time, took materially below market wages, right? Sometimes. So these are these people who are the job creation engine of this country if you take out the public service.
39:52Before they pay themselves, they pay their staff. And that's the true heroism of entrepreneurs. That is a great point. That is a great point. I'm going to start saying that point. That's a great point. I'm not going to give you credit for it. And so this is what he says. What I say to small business owners is in bracket from the publication. What I say to small business owners is that the aspiration, aspiration that means your aspiration as a small business owner is the same as for every worker to aspire to more income to aspire to be better off in life i mean you get what he's saying he's not great with the english language but like and what we're doing is better aligning income from work with income from assets and there in one barely comprehensible sentence is a treatise as you would call it, where he is saying, I do not believe in the principles of capitalism.
40:46Yeah. Because in capitalism, capital, I mean, it's in the name. Yeah. Capital and labour do not get treated the same. For better or for worse, I think it's turned out for better because capital is what drives wealth creation and jobs growth in a capitalist society. And Albanese has just said to you, I do not believe in the fundamental cornerstone of capitalism. But also what's – there's a lot of bad things about that comment. But what's really bad about it is it separates. You either own capital or you're a worker. There are millions of Australian workers who work really hard and don't – so essentially what goes back to the cost of capital point.
41:22Once you earn your money after tax, you can do things. You can spend it or you can save it. And if you save it and invest it in productive assets like start-ups, like businesses, whatever, we create jobs and we create prosperity for a country. And Silicon Valley is the ultimate example of this. Telephi is another great example. If you spend it on cocaine, on alcohol, on illegal cigarettes, or whatever you're doing, you're literally fritting it away. Maybe somebody benefits in the chain, but it doesn't create jobs for other people. What Albanese and Chambles have done is take away from productive assets, which is the most productive of your start-ups, and give it to the least productive, which essentially is your primary residence or illegal tobacco, whatever the hell they're supporting.
41:58You say they're giving it to illegal tobacco because instead of going and fighting that and getting$20 billion of lost tax from illegal tobacco, they're getting five billion from CGT changes. So it's just a policy that harms workers. It doesn't help workers at all. It creates less jobs. It hurts the young. It doesn't help anyone. It's just such a stupid policy. And he's trying to create this workers' good capital bad mentality, but that's not like that at all. A lot of workers own capital. That's what superannuation is, ironically. Well, what he's saying with this is a politician who is paid from the public purse is as aspirational as someone that opens a hairdressing business and doesn't pay themselves for four years.
42:41We are the same aspirational. Now, you might be the same ambitious. I would say Albanese is probably more ambitious if you look at what he's done to get to where he's gotten to. But he's not as aspirational. And we should not compare the taxpayer-funded salary that a politician gets with the hairdresser and the sweat equity they've built up in that and the risks they've taken. And if you do compare those things, then frankly you no longer believe in capitalism. And I think there's been a lot of lies about this tax. Like this whole thing is based on a lie, right, at the last election. But he is not lying about his core ideology.
43:17His core ideology is I do not believe in capitalism. And I will say there are not really democracies that have managed to exist anywhere around the world in history for extended periods of time that have not been based on capitalist economies. There are capitalist economies that are not democracies, but vice versa. Really, the history of democracy has been, and people might say, well, what about ancient Greece? Some nerds will say that. And I'll say, that's not really democracy in what we call it. We took the word from them, but it wasn't really democracy and then it didn't exist for two and a half thousand years after that.
43:49But really, modern democracies have got no history of existing in the absence of a capitalist economy. and this is a slippery slope to democratic disaster if we start eroding capitalism. On that note, I was going to talk about, AFR reported this week that in the past year, the S &P ASX 200 index has eked out basically a gain of 4 % while Wall Street's S &P 500 index has risen at 24%. Oh my God, that breaks my heart. And the world index has risen 25%. And when you factor in inflation, this actually hasn't gone up at all. So Sean Tickler also noted that last month's minimum wage increase of 4.75%, was followed by a 15 % increase for wages for childcare workers.
44:29Australia now has one of the highest rates of inflation in the OECD, with core inflation, which excludes energy costs, up massive 3.4%. This is miles above the midpoint of the RBA. And the RBA's target's too high anyway, but RBA's got a 2 to 3, so 2.5 % target. Have they given up? Has the RBA given up? Well, they seem to have. Even worse, actual inflation, which doesn't exclude energy, because real, inflation is inflation that was 4.2 percent it could be in 4.9 percent so this is we're being smashed the younger poorer people are being absolutely smashed by inflation you rich old people again fine because they've got assets that increase with inflation how often do you check your i know i always interrupt your talks now how often do you check your utility the competitiveness of your utility bills gas electricity i tend to we've i've managed to manage apartments i have a pretty good idea of how much utility should cost i do i do track it but it's pretty hard to change so i did look about because do you sign up for a year at a time i looked six months ago and put my thing i went one of the ai things is how does this compare and it was actually pretty good so i didn't really there's an australian government tool like that um compares gas and electricity prices and i typed all my details in in great detail and it just got it totally wrong it was Totally wrong.
45:41Mike and Joel, do you go and check how much you're being charged for electricity and gas and, like, swap? Yeah, I have records of every bill I pay and I'll examine them after a certain amount of months and decide. And, like, would you know how many megajoules you use and how much you pay per megajoule and stuff? No, no. Would you check that when you're choosing a provider? No, I wouldn't check that much. So how do you know who to choose? I just choose whoever's cheapest at the time I'm signing up. How do you know if they're cheapest? What do you use to know? Pure just dollar value. But how can you compare?
46:14Is it based on how much power you use? But yeah, okay, sure. Do you use a comparison website? Whoever has the lowest rate per kilowatt hour, whatever they charge by, I'll just choose whatever the lowest one is, yes. But I will change and I'll change insurance. I'll change all that stuff. And what about you, Joel? My girlfriend picked them all and I just pay her. You're really a renaissance man, Joel. So I went through that process recently, and actually the difference in what they charge. It's unbelievable. And just so you know, Mike, like with electricity, there's a daily charge and then there's a step one charge and a step two charge and different charges in summer and winter.
46:57And like gas is all, like it is very complicated. Do you have solar? I don't have solar. But you can factor in solar. That's another huge. Do you have solar, Mike? No, we don't have solar. No. So you might tell me that – I mean, you might not be very positive about what I'm about to say, but, like, I just swap to an electricity thing. I don't have an electric car, but I swap to something that gives me free power between 11 and 2 every day, free electricity. I heard an ad for that on the radio the other day. So I did that online, and so I don't know. I'm probably not going to be able to run my washing machine and dishwasher because I'm not going to be home between 11 and 2.
47:26But aspirate – see, that is aspiration. I want to run my dishwasher then. So it's a bit of a tangent, but I just went through the process, and I would say this. The government website cannot be trusted. and I literally I'm shocked I typed in stuff and uploaded my bill to it but you heard of something called Claude why don't you try using that one instead of whatever pathetic government thing well actually I did use that in the end and like so Claude does get does make some mistakes with maths sometimes basic maths but basically like I always tease my son because my son is a math genius but like I'm better at arithmetic I'm faster than him at arithmetic I'm very good at the simple stuff hopeless at the hard stuff and so I think Claude is like more like my son he'll actually not be happy about me saying that at all.
48:08And so, yeah, I used Claude and I just uploaded screenshots of prices from different providers into Claude and my bill and I said, can you just work this out? And I double-checked the end result. Anyway, people should do that. I think also when I asked Gemini or whatever, I said, how much should I be paying per kilowatt hour in Victoria? And I've just used that. That's how it gave me the price. I can compare to what price I was paying and it kind of worked. And I also found out that I was taking showers that were much longer than everybody else's. and also I take multiple showers every day. Yeah.
48:36And so that is not good for my guest bill either. Yeah, I would have thought. Just thinking back to the ASX, you go back to 2006, the ASX is only up 32%. That's in 20 years. That's 1.4 % compounded annually. So the ASX has been, obviously there's dividends on top of that, but there's also inflation. So if you, and that really dividends inflation kind of equal out. ASX has been just a quagmire for two decades. What a disastrous state of affairs. And when you've got stuff like the CGT, it's certainly not helping either. Well, I think the biggest travesty because I thought about this quite a bit in the last week.
49:06We're all fighting about CGT and Chalmers' comment, you know, the fight that he had with the Daily Oz was basically how many young people even are affected by CGT. And that kind of triggered a thought in my mind, which is we shouldn't be arguing whether 10 or 20 % are affected by CGT. We should be saying, how come 70 % of young people are not affected by CGT? And the answer is because if you earn$45 ,000 to$135 ,000, you're paying an extra 30%. You're paying 30 % of tax on every incremental dollar. And frankly, the tax on people earning$100 ,000, the average wage in Australia, it's usurious levels of tax.
49:47And this debate should actually be about income tax and not completely screwing middle income earners out of their income tax. And somehow the entire tax debate has been completely deviated towards CGT. It's political genius, frankly, when everyone who is earning$45 ,000 to$135 ,000 should be – this is the government's core constituency. They should be yelling at this government to reduce their income taxes. I was saying there's so many tax breaks for richer people. And if you're going to give tax breaks to richer people, somebody's got to pay for all this massive spending. So it's middle income earners that pay for it all.
50:25And they finally channel their inner Karl Marx and do these tax changes. But what do they do? they actually go and flog young people much harder than older rich people. Well, superannuation is the greatest war of them all. That wasn't touched. I just can't believe what's going on in this country. On that note, we'll go to a quick break. We've got... I want to talk about KPMG story, which is a massive story in corporate Australia, which will be about to be broken open back in just a moment.
50:59And we're back. And this isn't a deep dive, but this intro is a bit of a deep dive as you've just pillared me during the break. But if you could distill the world's supply of schadenfreude into a single story, it would be the rapid unravelling of the hypocritical and dishonest KPMG. One of the big four accounting firms is being justifiably slammed by pretty much everyone, from its clients, politicians, and now even its own board. KPMG's Australian directors and former directors claim they've lost trust in the firm for misusing confidential client information after KPMG repeatedly discredited and ignored an explosive whistleblower claim that the firm brazenly shared confidential client documents to win new audit work.
51:35KPMG even accessed very confidential board papers of long-term clients, most notably Lendlease, which was a 70-year client of the firm, to win more audit work for its multi-millionaire senior audit partners. Labor Senator Deborah O 'Neill, who's been a bit of a bulldog in all this stuff, said evidence given by KPMG's top brass was truly shocking and suggested an untrustworthiness that could undermine confidence in the company audits and markets more broadly. This would in turn harm every Australian who has ever worked. The chairman of Lendlease, John Gillam, blasted the behaviour of KPMG. It's ordered for almost 70 years in sharing confidential documents to win audit work at Westpac and Texas.
52:13Gillam claimed it was a fundamental breach of trust and how can we trust them if we can't do that? A clearly furious Gillam told the inquiry, whenever you have a fundamental breach of trust then you have other doubts that creep in. The AFR noted that KPMG employs 9 ,000 people, almost 700 partners, and last year earned more than$2 billion in fees. Inside the sphere of chunk, this revenue could be at risk because of the scandal. KPMG argued that it had launched three investigations into the hugely damaging accusations and claiming that law firm Ashurst had conducted the first. Incredibly, this was denied by Ashurst, meaning that the disgraced firm even lies about the investigations that was appointed uh kpmg even more appallingly is relying on legal professional privilege to avoid giving documents demanded by the parliamentship committee investing in behavior this move was blasted by current and former directors so have you followed this part this is almost the most outrageous of all these outraged so basically they said they had this whistleblower they ignored the whistleblower eventually the whistleblower became a whistleblower contacted the board actually so mike baird and these guys mike baird forced these criminal executives to actually do something they then got these law firms in and because they got the law firms to investigate they came oh it's privilege we can't give it this is out they've got this criminal conduct or allegedly criminal conduct and then or certainly dishonest conduct they got this law firm to investigate and using this internal investigation to avoid giving it to a real investigator it's just outrageous no one protects the whistleblower so the whistleblower is being exposed internally throughout the organization globally he's being he's i think he got fired and i'm not sure the whistleblower They tried to fire the whistleblower pretty quickly.
53:49They certainly dismissed the claims. And ASIC has conceded that they have inadequate powers to protect the whistleblower because something about these types of partnerships don't exactly fall under ASIC as part of the Corporations Act. So this whistleblower who has now said, I wouldn't do this again, it was too terrible. Like, this country can't even protect the whistleblowers that do this. We know we're hopeless protecting whistleblowers. Hopeless. I think what's so disgusting is the behaviour of KPMG. If you know Dorothy Hisgrove, who was the head of people, who's probably internally the most on-point person here, have you seen her record?
54:25No. This is quite the record. So she was Armoured for Hoor's person at NAB and then Australia Post. I don't mind Armoured. She did have a great record on these organisations. Then went to the AFL. We know what I think of the AFL. What a disaster that's been. Then went to PwC during the whole cover-up of the whole tax leaks thing. I actually think PwC was less bad than this, I should add. And now she's at KPMG during this cover-up. Is there a more fireable person in Australia than this person? Is that outrageous? I agree. So I generally find a lot of this stuff quite boring with these big firms.
54:53I'm not saying this story is boring. But like – Yeah. Because like there's all sorts of stuff that goes on in these firms that is just – I don't know. It's just a bit boring to me. But I do agree with you that what happened with PwC, it feels like they tried to make a real example of it. And it got political steam. And maybe some unfair things happened to some people internally. but some people deserved it. But some people I think were kind of put up for public execution unfairly, right? Remember what PwC did? So PwC was on the government's sort of advisory board and the government said we might do some tax stuff.
55:28They went and told some big clients internationally here's some stuff that could happen in Australia. But by the time this happened the government found out, shut them all down and not a cent of revenue was lost. I'm not saying the PwC's contract was great. That's wrong, but they didn't – what they did was very inappropriately shared briefing information from the government. So that's wrong and some people should get fired. It was a victimless crime really because they wouldn't lose a cent of revenue. They didn't sell out their own customers. That was just clients. They got a duty to these clients.
55:57They stole their board papers and tried to win work. This is outrageously bad. So the person who's taken the fall so far and who deserve to take the fall was former CEO Andrew Yates who led the firm when this behaviour occurred. and more aptly during the whole whistleblower. It's bad enough their behaviour occurred, but the trick of this whistleblower was the most outrageously bad behaviour. I agree with that. They did everything they can. This is like, remember Theranos when there was all these whistleblowers and they were hiring people to stalk them and follow them and bully them and all that kind of stuff?
56:26That's called we've got something to hide. Absolutely. And Yates was paid$3 million salary last year alone. He's getting a$1.7 million termination notice payment. This is a guy who should get nothing. Clearly should get nothing. Well, I think that's the end of a career, though, isn't it? Oh, of course, but it's old anyway. I know, but the people that run these things, they want to go sit on boards after this. I think the board path is now closed. Even worse. This is the worst part about this Andrew Yates guy. So Andrew Yates in 2023 said this. This is why the PwC issue is so disturbing. Based on the findings of the Tax Practitioners Board and the most recent revelations from Senate Estimates, the conduct of PwC was clearly unethical and unacceptable.
57:04Yates even emphasised that KPMG did not use legal professional privilege improperly, in reference to PwC's use of legal advice to stonewall investigations. How many times can this guy lie in one sentence? He could go into politics. This is good training for politics. I don't think politicians lie this much. I'm not sure about that. This guy is... First, he's accusing PwC who acted white. And this is after all this stuff was happening. He knew what was going on then. And he's trying to claim... We would never claim professional privilege. he then went and claimed it this is just outrageous how this guy that guy's a shocker um so not only did he basically try to steal clients from pwc he also lied about the whole process in front of um parliament actually even got even worse last friday when the presumably soon to be sacked kpmg uh chairman martin shepherd told the senate committee uh that a former kpmg partner kpmg partner who is now chairman of westpac's audit committee uh stayed at shepherd's house while KPMG was pitching for the$32 million audit job.
58:04But worse, that guy called Peter Nash. And possibly even worse again, so Macquarie, which is the biggest audit in Australia,$75 million audit. Macquarie, the KPMG partner called Michelle Hinchcliffe, she left KPMG and within a couple of months was a Macquarie board member. She chairs the audit committee. After 37 years, who do you reckon won the audit for Macquarie last year? I'd be shocked if it wasn't KPMG. KPMG. So you've got these KPMG partners who, they claim they take themselves out of the protest. We know they don't. But that's not unique to them. I mean, there's lots of things that you can criticise.
58:36KPMG is a high watermark for misfeasers now. Poor PwC copped it from everyone. It was something that was nowhere near this bad. So a whole lot of, I'll comment about all this stuff in a second, but that particular thing, which is extending your tentacles, Goldman Sachs are the masters of that globally. But audit's different. Audit's just different to banking. Well, that's true. That's a good point, because that's banking. Yeah, but audit, you're representing shareholders. You're saying these executives are doing it. You're right. So these people come on the board and they don't go on the board to look after shareholders.
59:04They go on the board to look after their former firm. We know how – well, I would say this. One of the things that I learnt when I got involved with a public company – Who's your auditor? EY, which I hadn't thought about previously, is that if you want to change auditors as a public company, it needs to go to a shareholder vote. You can't just change them as a director. and so I think that kind of tells you, that reinforces what you've just said about the importance of auditors as a shareholder safeguard. How's this for, Yates told the committee, I don't believe across my 36 years I was a bad apple.
59:37Mate, you are the rotten, most rotten apple on the tree. This is outrageous. And like the lying to the, effectively lying to the power. Is your most rotten apple today on the tree? Yeah, a few rotten apples are out. Yeah, it's like you've got a lot of trees with a lot of rotten apples. This is, like, how many column inches were given devoted to PwC? This is like levels above PwC. This is not just the crime, not just the stealing the documents and using it for your own money-making schemes, but to effectively victimise this poor whistleblower. And God knows the mental state of this heroic whistleblower who tried and tried and tried.
1:00:12Eventually had to go to the – and credit to the KPMG board and Mike Bedd, who actually – Mike Bedd was revealed, quit in disgust at this behaviour and good on him for doing that. Well, I remember when he quit it was kind of – Of course it wasn't the real reason. Just before, yeah, he said a few things, but obviously he knew what was going on inside. Well, that's why he quit on this basis. But, you know, beware of Mike Baird in front of a committee. The last time he did it, he brought down Gladys. This time he's, you know, I wouldn't say he's brought down KPMG, but, like, he probably was the linchpin that unravelled, well, that's a mixed metaphor, but that unravelled all of this stuff, his testimony.
1:00:48You look at, obviously, Arthur Anderson as a firm, collapsed on the back of what happened after the N1 stuff. This is not hugely – Well, it's less high profile because it's more distributed, you know, malfeasance as opposed to one thing. I tell you how I feel about this more broadly. So I was out at the Western Bulldogs the other day. And so often I'll go out to these clubs, like I get invited out, to talk a bit to players about business stuff. We're a great club, the Bulldogs are. Great club. And Mick Baines is a fantastic CEO and a great coach. The vibe in that place is there's an ex-Catapult guy, Michael Regan, who's out there who's absolutely terrific.
1:01:24He was one of the key reasons we were able to expand into the US, frankly. And so I went out there and I talked to the place. It's kind of ostensibly about business and entrepreneurship and what you do post-career, but there's also a bit of like a life view of things, right? And one of the things that I generally say to these players is exactly what I feel like should be said to this board and this CEO. no matter what happens, in the case of footy, you should never do anything that you would be embarrassed about on the front page of the Herald Sun. And I try to live my life of you should never do anything that you would be embarrassed about on the front page of the Financial Review.
1:02:00All of this would not have been hard to understand, was going to look terrible on the front page of the Financial Review. They just didn't think it was going to get there. Of course they didn't. And I do think they can just stop it getting there as well. But welcome to the reality. It is there. It's literally on the front page. Yeah. It feels to me... How about with the hypocrisy? This guy's trumpeting two years ago. I remember reading that thinking, this guy seems like a real prick. Like, how dare he? Like, PwC, we're at that low air. They've done something stupid, but whatever. Like, it was no one about his bad asses.
1:02:26You're more worked up about hypocrisy in general than I am. Yeah, because hypocrisy's the worst. I don't think it's the worst. I think bad behaviour is the worst. The hypocrisy, like, we're all hypocrites. You're a hypocrite. I'm a hypocrite. We all engage in hypocrisy. But this is hypocrisy writ large. This is like the peak of hypocrisy. We don't all engage in fraud, thankfully, and screwing over our customers. That's why I'm more concerned about that part of it. And I think the thing about what goes on is that organisations have a lot of groupthink where no one else says it's bad, so you kind of roll with it and you kind of feel this may not be great, but everyone's doing it and if you don't do it, you may not end up staying in the firm or you won't hit your billing numbers.
1:03:06So I get that. And a lot of low-level bad behaviour kind of slides through on the basis of groupthink. that's culture right bad culture yeah absolutely this is not that it was so anyone could have known that taking your clients confidential information and using that to win other clients is way beyond acceptable behavior and the fact that nobody stopped this no one except one what was it a partner the whistleblower was an executive of some sort it's not even someone at the top of the organization well you've got the head of people and culture still there i don't know how the old COO is still going back to being a partner none of these and the chairman's still there all these people have to go like clearly they're completely and you've got to feel for the there's 700 partners 9 ,000 people 98 % of good people have done nothing wrong here like you'd be wanting to leave this this hell hole as soon as possible this is just you talk about great I talk about Bulldogs having great culture because Amit's such a fantastic CEO he's a great guy what a great family that is his sister was running ASOP for many years so great culture at the Bulldogs, he's talked about, horrendous culture at KPMG, clearly.
1:04:13And the people who created that culture are still there other than one guy. So what's the, because you know, these partnerships are like a global affiliation, right? And so, what's the global KPMG partnership going to do about this? I mean, this is like... That's what came down on PwC. Remember, they shipped in a guy from the US to run... Yeah, I think they're going to have to do something because this is Wall Street Journal material. Yeah. And once it hits the Wall Street Journal, that does real brand damage. I'm surprised it hasn't. We both obviously get the journal. I haven't seen it in the journal yet.
1:04:40It's surprising it hasn't. Like if and when this starts appearing there, this will be real global brand damage for KPMG. I think they're going to have to do something. Well, they are, but they're not doing moving fast. Martin Shepard's got to go. His Grove has to go. Like they all have to go. It's not just go though. I think, look, I'm not wishing this on anyone because like it's all very bad behaviour, but generally I don't like advocating for people to be publicly shredded. But I think they're going to need to do some public executions with KPMG as a global business to show this is completely unacceptable behaviour.
1:05:12And the NDA's guy should be getting$1.7 million term. He should be getting zero for a start. Like they all should be getting zero. They should be fine. Like Luke Sayers was fined by PwC for multiple infractions. These guys should be fined. Well, you are obviously very critical of Richard Goida and have been very critical of... Justifiably so. And very critical of the Qantas CEO. Alan Joyce. Alan Joyce. But ultimately, he did get his bonus pulled back as a result of... No, but he's still got... And remember, don't forget, Richard Goyne allowed Joyce to sell like$30,$40 million. I know, but in the end, he did have a big millions of dollars of his bonus clawed back.
1:05:44A small percentage was clawed back. Well, it was millions of dollars. But this is a guy who's been paid$120 million, so it was irrelevant. Yeah, so I suspect this$1.7 million, like the thing is this, if you claw that back, then he has to sue you, the company. And I think the look of that is much worse for the person doing the suing. This guy's not going to sue anyone. Who was the guy who sued a few months ago? ANZ guy. Shane Elliott, who accumulately backed down about a month later. It's not a good look. If you get fired and there's some kind of grey clouds over what happened, I don't think you want to – There's a cyclone over this guy.
1:06:21You don't want to draw that through the evidentiary process in a court. It's not going to go well for you. There's no chance he'd win. Can we move on to the final story? I thought this would be really interesting. Ferrari's controversial new EV, the Luce, which I think means light in Italian, has drawn both praise and a lot of haters. What's your thoughts on the new EV? It's not the greatest looking car. I think inside looks really good. The outside is – and there's a reason for that because the way you've got to structure EVs for aerodynamics is very different to combustion. They couldn't get that traditional Ferrari sort of downward pressure.
1:06:51When you see a Ferrari driving down the street, even if you don't see the badge, you know it's a Ferrari. Yeah. You couldn't say that about this car. I think that's the difference. I think what's – we're not going to – we're not a car show, but what's really – what we are is a brand show. And I think this is really interesting. I'm not sure if you saw this article in the journal. I think it was. But obviously Ferrari has this kind of cult following. It's like Hermes but on steroids. So the reason they get these 50 % gross margins is because they have not just the sort of entry-level Ferrari, which costs, call it, 500 grand.
1:07:21That sounds expensive. It's actually not. You want to get the supercars. The supercars cost like five-plus million dollars. And it's a bit like Hermes. You want to buy a Birkin or a Kelly. You've got to buy the same value and other stuff. So these loyal Ferrari owners need to buy lots of Ferraris to get the status. So this new Luce is putting a lot of pressure on Ferrari diehards who may need to buy it to continue what's called good standing. So whilst Ferrari has allegedly issued strict orders to prevent dealers from suggesting that buying the€550 ,000 Luce would give customers a stronger position on the loyalty list, many buyers still believe this is the case.
1:07:58Allegedly, a Ferrari dealer in Western China said he thought buying a Luce would bring significant benefits in the future, noting Luce will come with very attractive credit rewards, much higher than petrol cars. That's your status points in a way. This will make it easier to qualify for certain limited edition models. The Financial Times reported that while Ferrari does not disclose details of its client ranking or allocation policies, owners of its sports cars and analysts closely track customer data, including the number of cars purchased over the years. how long these models were kept and how they were maintained even the participation rate in ferrari organized events and how much the cars were driven after being purchased were also these guys are like geniuses yeah um while ferrari sells cars for as low as 500 000 most hardcore ferrari fans want access to the legendary supercars the ferrari f80 which is the success you know what's the success successor to f40 maybe the ferrari uh is the crown jewel of the current lineup it sells for us 3.9 million if you can get it and 5 million on the secondary market in the US.
1:08:58The Ferrari FXXK is a track only non-legal beast reserved for Ferrari's most elite clients. It sells for 3 million new and 4 million on the collector market. That's what you want to get to. So how good is this business? Well, the ultimate thing is to say, you know, this is better. We say brand is forgiveness. This is better than forgiveness. This is we might have created a bit of a dog but I think actually I would I would buy that before I'd buy another Ferrari I prefer I personally prefer it but I'm not the target market because of the look because it's EV the EV thing I actually like the look but you wouldn't buy a Ferrari regardless no I don't like the normal combustion Ferraris that's not my kind of car yeah I think they're too flashy I agree with you on that but like so the thing is but this is not a popular car okay and so not only do they get forgiveness which forgiveness would usually mean don't worry that we made a mistake when we make the next thing like the Ford Edsel we'll be fine right exactly this is we made a mistake but our brand is so strong and our customers are so desperate to be a part of us that they will buy this thing that no one maybe wants in the same way just to show us that they're there for us in hard times as well as good times yeah this is absolutely remarkable how is that i didn't realize any of this that you not only have to stay in good standing you don't have to buy lots of cars but you have to keep them for a certain period you've got to maintain them and you have you go to track days that's obviously you pay for which is a bit it's you know it's like running subscription business it is a fine balance though because they would definitely want a certain number of their cars to hit the collector market because it shows price increases that's good news for them right and so it's like hermes they sell i mean they sell way too many birkin bags now in my view but they're still pretty tight on how many they sell there's a lot floating around and they're on the secondary markets as well so they want a certain number on the secondary markets but um The thing about it is you still need people to come back and buy new stuff because if everyone buys second-hand stuff, you've got no business, right?
1:10:56So I think it's a – There's still the demand for Birkin still massively seeds of supply. That's why Hermes and Ferrari are clearly the two best luxury brands in the world because they've got such great power over the customers. Well, they've got this unique characteristic or – I don't want to say unique because that would mean only one has it – but very, very, very uncommon brand characteristic that we haven't really, I don't know if I'd call this like a subset of both pricing power and reduced CAC maybe, but it's this unique thing which is people will buy things from us that they don't even really want in order to have standing to buy the stuff that they do want because it's so unattainable and inaccessible.
1:11:42That is like a very, very tough game to play that almost no one pulls off. And the Acquired guys talk about the luxury strategy, the rules for marketing. Well, this is from a book that they didn't write. Yeah, the luxury strategy. And it's like one of the – there's all these rules. And the rules are unbelievable. And it's so counterintuitive. I've read this book by the way. Yeah, oh, you've read it? Okay, we talked about don't pan into your customers' wishes. Like it's just make it difficult for clients to buy. That's a classic Ferrari. It's raise your prices to increase demand. Yeah. And like – That is someone's rule where there's a curve of raising prices.
1:12:16where it increases and I forget whose rule it is. It's very hard to pull off. That is one of the hallmarks that separates... Called the Veblen effect. Right. And that is one of the hallmarks that separates premium brands from luxury brands. And there's so few real luxury brands. There are obviously Arthurs as well. I think Van Cleef would be a luxury brand for diamonds. But the way Ferrari does it, effectively they hold your customers at ransom and Hermes to an extent, but Ferrari takes it to the next level. It's like you want to get the car that's going to go up from four to six million. You have to do all this other stuff and you have to buy this crappy Luce that I personally like, but you hate.
1:12:49So you're going to give us a million bucks just to stay on the list. It's unbelievable. 550 ,000 euros. It's actually 1.1 million Aussie. Wow. People will buy it. You'll see them on the street. I reckon it's, I kind of like it. It's definitely Johnny Ive designed it, the famous Apple legend. He was apparently working on the Apple car and this would be a good Apple car in fairness. It looks more like an Apple car than a Ferrari. Yeah. It's got like, it's a bit Tesla-esque in some ways. Oh, it's very Tesla. The curvaceous nature of the top of it. They talk about it being a cross-border Tesla and a Hyundai.
1:13:25But the reason why it looks like that, and the reason why Tesla looks like that is the way the battery sits in the car. And you can't, you couldn't make a Ferrari like Testarossa style EV. It just wouldn't work. Well, you say that, but I'll say two things. I know it's not a car show, but I used to love cars. You know, I used to go to every car show as a kid and take photos and whatever. I used to really love them. And so the thing is, Tesla's first car, they got a Lotus and they put an electric battery and a couple of other changes to it. I love the Roadster. And there's a car from MG that nobody buys.
1:14:02It's on sale now. MG's Chinese-owned right now. MG's Chinese. And they've taken this heritage brand and they've slaughtered it, basically, and brought it down market, right? And they've milked the heritage brand for some period of time. eventually people are going to catch on that mg doesn't mean what it used to be garage but is that what it stands for i didn't know that um but they've made this one electric car that's on sale in australia it's not expensive i think it's sub 100k it looks amazing yeah it has the same problem in a sense that there was a bmw called the i8 i don't know if you're familiar with that car that looked incredible and it looked like the most amazing supercar it just didn't perform like a supercar it's kind of wrote it like oh what's it called you something that um like writing checks that you're something can't cash or whatever that saying is and so it couldn't cash the check that it wrote basically in terms of its looks the mg has got that problem as well but it looks more like a ferrari than this ferrari looks like a ferrari actually so um so i'm surprised that ferrari didn't try and do something more akin to the styling that that mg has but like yeah But there you go.
1:15:07There's so many great supercar EVs coming out of it. There's obviously BYD's Denzer brand, which has just released a Range Rover competitor, which looks really cool. Which looks like a Range Rover. It generally looks like a Range Rover, and obviously super powerful. But there's so many. I think Geely's got some great product as well. There's some amazing EVs coming out of China. But even BYD's C-Line, which you see one in every three cars. It's actually quite a good-looking car. I think they basically went and got the Porsche Cayenne. Such great value. Copy that. Yeah, such amazing value. And obviously I've got a Tesla, which I love as well.
1:15:35I don't really love the look of Teslas, I've got to be honest with you. I like them, but it's a personal taste, I guess. It grows on you. That's why I like the Lucha as well, because it does look like a Tesla. Can I just say one other? Have you finished with this story? I'm finished, yeah. Before we go, I want to say this one thing. So remember, I've got my IR index. You do. So the Insiders Relative Exit. Love that index. So what multiple of what Insiders took off is the current share price, or what multiple of what they are, the current share price. And so I don't know if you've been following the trajectory of Adore Beauty recently.
1:16:01You more than me, but it's now almost a penny stock, right? So when they were, they got an offer. So there's roughly 100 million shares. That's how you should think about it. And so they got an offer, if you remember, we spoke about it a couple of years ago, of$1.20. I think it was like one year ago, wasn't it? A bit more than a year, I think. $1.20. And I said, well, they should be taking this offer. Yeah, they IPO'd at a 600 mil valuation. Don't forget that. And this is 130 mil valuation. Take the money. I was sceptical. The only reason I thought they may have done the right thing not taking it is because the business presumably had some traction to justify them saying no.
1:16:31And the offer wasn't a fully formed offer at the time. I don't want to be too harsh about it. It was early days. But I think they should have engaged. And they might have behind the scenes. You know, all close on behind the scenes. But anyway, the point is I thought that's a great offer. Take the money. Yeah. Today, they're at – Not so good. 30? 30 cents. 30 million, yeah. $25 million market cap. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and the problem they've got is the problem that we foresaw they were going to have. You're selling third-party retail stuff against an enormous, very well-run competitor in Mecca who also has exclusive brands that bring people in.
1:17:05You can't compete with them. It shows how good Kate was, though, in actually running that business. Obviously, Kate's been gone for like five years now. She did a great job of running that business. So I don't want to say anything bad about Kate because I've known her for a long time. And she did a great job of building a brand. But to be honest, that was never a super profitable business. Quadrant got in and out with incredible timing. They were very smart to take advantage of the COVID boom. and I take nothing away from her or James, who was the co-founder, or Quadrant because there was a market that wanted to buy their stuff and they sold it.
1:17:40But it was pretty obvious to me that the trajectory wasn't going to be good. And when they opened stores, which I generally favour, you know, I hate third-party retail, but they're opening stores three doors away from Mecca. That is not a road to victory. Also, they had a great CEO in Tamalyn and she had to leave for family for personal reasons, genuine personal reasons. I don't think the CEO's got a problem. It's not his fault. Yeah, it's hard to buy them too much. It's a very hard business to run. Yeah, it's hard. Super hard business. At 25 mil, there's two things I want to say at 25 mil. You should buy it.
1:18:06You've got 25 mil in your pocket at the moment. Well, one thing is a brand that wants a big brand that wants a loyal customer. When I say loyal, what I mean is they'll respond to offers from Adore Beauty and there's a real brand there. It feels like Mecca could buy it with a day's profits. And that'd be a great online brand. I know they don't do a lot of online stuff. So Mecca wouldn't bother buying this. But there is an industry that used to make most of its profits from cosmetics and that's Myra and David Jones. Now David Jones is struggling to stay alive at the moment. Erica got appointed CEO yesterday.
1:18:35Oh really? I didn't see that. Obviously from Rebel fame. I like Erica. If David Jones stays solvent that will be a dramatic achievement in my view. That is a business that has big problems. It's really hard to understand because it's private. Who knows what happens with interest payments and all that kind of stuff. They made good money a couple of years ago then they've lost money in the last couple of years but it's all really hard to understand what's going on. But if you're Myra how would you not launch a takeover bid for a door beauty now? It feels very cheap. You know, and like, I think, aren't people tired?
1:19:03They want to get out of this. But what's interesting is, do you remember how much money, I say insiders, I think you've got to include Quadrant as an insider in this because – But they're not the controlling owner. Yeah, and they were selling down. Yeah. So do you remember how much they sold down? They sold half, didn't they? I think they sold 250 mil. Yeah. In total between the founders and Quadrant. Yeah. So they're – Half their stake, yeah. Yeah, so their ratio is 10. Yeah. I think that's higher than Setire, isn't it? Oh, maybe not higher than Setire. Setire was a 300 mil sell down, maybe? Dean's got 330.
1:19:34He put a little bit back, but Dean got 330 from Setire. And what's the Setire market cap? It's currently 80, but it will go down more. But that's, you know, that's a lot lower than 10. Yeah, but give it time. I think Setire goes to zero when it becomes... It could go to zero, but right now, as of today, you'll be tough to beat, I think, Adore Beauty He is number one on the IR indexed. Clubhouse leaders. Yep. Yeah. Pretty remarkable. And even more remarkable, they didn't actually sell down that. They only sold down like not even half their stakes, which makes it even better. So they actually did go down the ship a little bit.
1:20:04Although the farmers took off 90 mil or something between them. I mean, that is a lot of money. I know they could have got 200 if they sold it completely. So it's not if they sold everything. So they didn't like completely run for the hills. They just sold some down. No, I agree with you. And I don't cast any aspersions on the sell down. Yeah. Because they didn't. It was public. They weren't tying people up and shoving it down their throats. I will say this, which I don't know if I've mentioned this before. I'm not going to say the name of the company. There was an investment bank that was pitching for this, a big investment bank, and then dropped out during COVID because they thought the price was too high.
1:20:38It was Macquarie, wasn't it? I don't want to say who it was or wasn't. Did we work with Macquarie? I remember having a discussion with them. It might have been more than one as well. And this particular one said to me, we think it would be, there's reputational risk in us IPO-ing this. Yeah, 100%. So I think that was very, very interesting. On that note, great episode as always. We've got a big, deep dive on Saturday, so make sure you listen to that. We've got a good friend Scott coming on. That'll be a cracker. So thank you for listening. We'll see everybody on Saturday. Great.
From the publisher
The guys discuss KPMG’s spectacular implosion, Labor’s chaotic CGT Reverse Ferret, the ATO’s small business scare campaign, Big W’s surprisingly good AI chatbot, Ferrari’s electric future, and Adore Beauty’s brutal market reality.
00:00 - LinkedIn Thoughts
09:15 - Startup Cities Quiz
15:00 - Big W Chat Bot Experience
27:50 - ATO Small Business Ads
30:00 - Labor's CGT Semi Backdown
44:00 - ASX
51:00 - KPMG
1:08:00 - Ferrari
1:12:00 - Adore Beauty
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