TDI Podcast: Wile E. Coyote Market

26:23It was a sort of an asymmetric curve and it would sort of be trying to do it now. I can't, I can't do it, but it was sort of be like a smile with a little bit of a curve up to the left because the people, people wanted to, you know, downside insurance. The reason for that being there are tend to be natural sellers of calls through buy rights and other strategies of that nature. But sellers of puts tend to want to be incentivized because there's more of a natural, there has historically been more of a natural demand for protection. So the SKUs reflected that. You needed to, you know, there were a little bit for something that was, let's say, 10 % below market versus 10 % above market, you would tend to see higher volatilities on the below market strikes than on the above market strikes for those supply-demand dynamics.

27:14that got flipped on its head. And it's still, I'd say it's more symmetrical now, but what I called the upside was FOMO insurance, because what happened was people were afraid to miss a rally, petrified of missing a rally. So they, so you had, so in many cases, you had institutions holding their nose and saying, you know what, I just can't, I can't go all in at these prices, but I can't risk underperforming. So how do I do that? I buy calls. At the same time, a lot of the traditional call writers got out of the game because if you do nothing but go up, why cap your upside? I was at a conference a couple of months ago where I was speaking and a lot of individual investors, and one of them raised her hand and said, I've been writing calls.

28:04I've been doing a lot of buy rights, and I find I'm just having to buy back the stock, buy back the options, I'm sorry, at higher prices than where I sold them. And what should I do? And I'm like, stop writing calls. If you don't want to sell the stock, don't write the call because right now, you know, a market that, I'm sorry. A market that goes up to the right. When you go to the doctor and you say, yeah, continue. Yeah. So, yeah. So, so there was, so, you know, I don't, I, if you, I don't think it's a wrong idea to have selling discipline. If you think the market is, you know, if you want to sell X, Y, if you bought X, Y, Z stock at, at$70, and you're seeing it now at 95 and you're thinking that was my price target, fine, get paid to write, right.

28:51Get paid, get paid to, to, to, to lock that, you know, at least, you know, put in the sell discipline. But, um, you know, I think the idea that it's just steady income when it's just not the wrong, it's not the right environment. So those two ideas, I think, held up very well, I think, over time.

29:12So one of the things that we've talked about many times this time of year, we're getting towards the September time, there's some volatility. September, October are usually known for their volatility. And I think September goes down. I think, correct me, but I think September goes down as one of the, on average, worst. It's not a terrible month, but on average, the worst month of the year. October is kind of right in there as well. But you recently wrote about seasonality and September's reputation, right?

29:41And the thing about seasonality is that I think we all agree when we look at seasonality, it's not like, oh, September is usually a bad month. So therefore, it's going to be a bad month. Therefore, I have to. It could be a bad month, but it could just be not as good as other months. How much value, how much credence do we need to put on this idea? and with these historical patterns. And when do they become like self-fulfilling prophecies too that becomes, you know, well, we know about it, therefore it's not going to happen. Seasonality is a very fickle friend, is the way I would put it. So yes, you're correct.

30:16September, if you look at the averages, September on average is the worst month of the year. I went back, depending on, pretty much over any time period, if you look back, you know, 10 years, 25 years, et cetera. I look back to the beginning of 25 plus years, the beginning of the 21st century. And September, there were four months that had, there were four months that had negative averages. I don't, I'm forgetting them because I have them written down. I wrote about them in my piece yesterday. I think it was, I think it was like February, June, August, and September. But I may have the, I may have the exact months wrong, but September stood out because the other months were sort of marginal, Like they started with a zero handle.

30:58September started with a minus one handle. But even within September, the last two Septembers were up 5%. I'm talking S &P terms here. I think about 5 % each of those years. The four prior Septembers were ugly. They were down 5 % or more, I think. So September, you can say September can be a very volatile month. But I think the fact and I think it's important to know that, yes, September, if you if you're going to have a first of all, I think what it tells you is be in the market because most months tend to be up. You know, when I look back over all the various time periods over the last, you know, however many years, the majority, the majority of them were up months.

31:43Yeah. But what it means is, you know, I think it's important to understand it. I think it's important to know that, yes, markets have had more than their fair share of hiccups in the September-October period. That, you know, I think it's psychological. I think a lot of institutional investors become more risk averse. You know, I've had a great year. Maybe I don't want to risk losing it. Maybe that wasn't the case the last couple of years. It seems kind of a little bit, it seems that there is a, it's kind of far in advance of the end of the year. You would think that maybe November would be the case where they start doing this, you know, and when September seems a little bit early, doesn't it, for them to have that opinion?

32:30It does, yet November is, I think, the best month of the year. So go figure. I think just, I think for whatever reason, maybe people come back from vacation and sort of look at their position, you know, look at their positions and say, maybe I've been riding this train for a while. Maybe it's time to rebalance. And sometimes the rebalancing gets out of hand. I don't have a great reason for it. You know, one of the things is I always, I often refer to the movie trading places with, you know, the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip, you know, where Eddie Murphy's learning the commodities markets. And he's like, oh, you know, hold on.

33:03I can't buy my kid, the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip. They're panicking. They'll get out of the way in a minute. Obviously that's fiction, but it is rooted in, you know, they did actually do their research when they wrote the movie. You know, they did get at least a fair amount of fair amount of the psychology. Right. And I think it was, wasn't it all about, it was all about orange juice futures if I'm, if I'm not mistaken at the end. It wasn't concentrated orange juice and. Concentrated orange juice futures. Funny. It was actually supposed to, what I read, it was supposed to be pork bellies, but they, they, And it was supposed to like dump a load of pork bellies on their lawn in the snow.

33:45And that was apparently perceived as being silly. And there is an IBKR podcast out there. Episode number three, where Thomas Pederfee tells me that he believes that he was one of the inspirations for the movie. Oh, really? Mm-hmm. Which character? there. Do we know a character? Wait, don't tell me. People are going to have to go there. People go there. People go there. Look up the IBKR podcast. Go to episode three. Yeah, yeah. Let's talk about switch gears. I think the episode is called You Mean You Don't Have to Know Anything to Do This or something like that. And that was the root of a... It was a bet made and I'll leave the rest up.

34:32Yeah. Let's talk about Fed Policy. Well, there's a clock. Because markets have been – well, so Fed policy. And with regard to – I'm very thankful, by the way, that we're not totally overwhelmed and oversaturated with every single guest on every single show talking about the Fed. Although it's starting to pick up a little bit because there was a period of time there that every question of every guest that came on, not here, but other shows was, hey, what do you think the Fed's going to do right now? Now, I know that's an important issue, and I know that there is a lot of that. I'm going to talk to you about that right now because I'm going to talk about what markets are doing because it appeared that markets are repricing the rate outlook now under Chair Warsh, which he basically, in my opinion, threatened to – not threatened.

35:20He dared, dared the markets. You take over. You figure it out. We'll come on the backside and let the markets run with it. But do you think that investors, there's a misunderstanding now about the current rate environment that we're in? Or what is exactly happening? Because this is not only specific to the U.S. The parabolic move on the Japanese JGBs is pretty unbelievable. Yeah. Two very important points here. Let me talk in some ways the broader one first. And if you look at basically pretty much every developed market, if you look at the performance of their 10-year notes from the start of the year to now, they're up double-digit basis points.

36:10It's just a question of how many double digits. Japan is pushing triple-digit basis points. The US is, I think, around 75 basis points. But even something like Norway, I think, is up like 20-some-odd basis points. So it's global. Wow. The reason I say that is, yes, there's a few reasons. First of all, there's inflation fears. And we'll get back to that because that gets back to the first part of your question. Global inflation fears or fiscal concerns, let me say. And I think the situation in the Persian Gulf is not helping the inflation fears. And consequently, as rates rise, it's actually a feedback loop, because then you can get more concerned about the effect that interest rate payments have on a country's debt and deficit, and that those tend to spiral.

37:01So because the higher the interest rate, the higher the debt, the higher the interest repayment on the loans or the harder it is to refinance them. And that, of course, raises more questions about sustainability, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And so there are credible reasons to think that maybe we're in a different secular period when it comes to bonds. Plus, I alluded to this earlier. You now have companies needing to go borrow hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars themselves. So you've got huge competition for these funds from people who used to just not know what to literally, in some cases, Apple literally does not know what to do with all its cash.

37:48They're not among the big borrowers. But, you know, Microsoft, Alphabet, these companies, cash came out of every pore and now they need to go get money. So they're competing with these governments. And again, I mentioned at the same time, private equity is going to need to refinance some of its older loans. There's a huge competition for funds out there. And so I think you add all those factors in and you see a bond market, global bond market, where rates are trending higher. There's a multitude of reasons. Some of it is basic, and a lot of it is basic just supply and demand. But then when you say about like, then let's throw the Fed into this.

38:31Sure. The Warsh came out of the box saying he is a sing basically a single mandate Fed chair. I counted it. And in his last press conference, I think he used the term inflation 20 or 30 times. And I think he used the word labor like three times. It's it's just not it's just not their focus. And I mentioned Waller's comments, you know, thinking about Waller's comments today, you know, Thursday, where he basically said, oh, labor is a foregone conclusion. I'm concerned about inflation. So you're stealing that out of the Fed right now. And by the way, Waller had a lot of comments today, just on and on and on and on, which was like, I thought they were going to kind of chill out on that a little bit.

39:16But he definitely took the spotlight today. He did. He did. And then and as we're taping this, markets are responding very positively because there they they heard the part about I'm inclined to keep rates steady at the next meeting instead of if inflation is bad. I mean, I'm going to suggest raising rates. So maybe, you know, we didn't hear that. Yeah. So market again, markets hear what they want to hear. But, you know, one of the comments Warsh made early on was I want to see stock markets playing the playing the ball, not the ref. you know, basically the sports analogy saying, you know, don't tell me what you think the ref is going to call, watch what's going on on the field.

39:57I think to some extent, he's forcing us to do that by not speaking much. I saw a chart today that he is like the least talkative Fed chair at this point in his tenure. I think all the last, you know, called the last six or seven. So he doesn't say much. And we've gotten used to a very communicative Fed. So we do have to sort of read between the lines and maybe we do have to read the data, but we don't do that all the time. On the last jobs report, which was by all means pretty much atrocious, a loss of 23 ,000 jobs and a big revision downward, markets rallied because, and I wrote at the time, they're playing the ref, not the ball today, because it was, okay, we're not going to raise rates right now.

40:43And we're very much enthralled to this will they, won't they idea. of will they raise rates in September? Will they not raise rates in September? My feeling all along is they're not inclined to raise rates in September. I've been pretty consistent about this. Do you feel the same way I do that politically they just don't want to open that can of worms? Yeah. It would be suicidal. Yeah. I think it would just, you've got a president who wants lower rates. He's not getting that. That's off the table. And I think any real follower of the economy understands that, that rates are not getting cut anytime soon.

41:23But I think the idea of raising rates ahead of a midterm election will create a lot of unnecessary issues for the Fed. I think they're probably better off waiting. I think their credit, you know, someone asked me recently, does this stretch their credibility if they keep talking about, you know, inflation and not doing anything about it. Yeah, it probably does. But, you know, September is, you're in that sort of yellow light area about, you know, the Fed is, you know, in that caution zone. Maybe they don't want to start antagonizing the president now. And then the next meeting is the end of October, which is like literally the week before the midterm.

42:06So I can't imagine they do anything there, barring like something absolutely crazy that requires them to step in. which puts it to me, puts December on the table. Will the market wait that long? I don't know. Somebody raised the point, you know, our market's fighting the Fed. And I'm like, they're not fighting the Fed because the Fed's not doing anything. And that's another reason why you can sort of, why we have this glass half full approach because we can debate whether the right odds for next month are 50%, 68%, 36%, all of which were on the table in the last week and a half, by the way. But bottom line - bit of trouble hearing you on a couple of those points, but I will say that, you know, I agree.

42:47I mean, the Fed is, while we don't want to believe that there's a political side to the Fed, the fact of the matter is that there's sometimes, I think, an agreeable by all parties that, you know, within the range around an election, I don't necessarily know why, by the way. I really never understood why. The thought of raising or lowering rates right before election would have anything to do with the election, but maybe people will be happy or sad about what's going on. But if in fact that the Fed is supposed to have a separation from politics, then therefore most people believe that's what it is.

43:21I don't know. The whole thing's nonsense in my opinion, by the way. But I agree that instead of facing the wrath of a pissed off political party, right, the one that's currently in position that could lose and then blaming, it's just better off to stay out of it because then you definitely have a credibility issue on the backside. Yeah, that's exactly it. So I think the path of least resistance is watch and wait, stress your data dependency, stress your

43:56enthusiasm for being diligent about inflation. Remember also at the same time, the treasury in some ways is working against the Fed, literally. Besson's bond buyback bonanza, a lot of alliteration there, bond buyback program, which is supposed to start next week on the 9th and end very, I'm sure not at all coincidentally on November 4th. November 5th is midterm day, by the way. But that is very reminiscent of Bernanke's Operation Twist, which was a form of QE. Were they spent? But it's not. Wait, wait, wait. Hold on. I have some thoughts on this. First of all. Sure, please. It's Besson's Big Bond Blunder.

44:46Besson's Big Bond Blunder. That's my alliteration, by the way. And how the markets are, in fact, and how we've turned it into the discussion of Operation Twist, the differential between this and Operation Twist is Operation Twist also aligned with quantitative easing because there was money still being created by the Fed. The Treasury's not creating anything. They're just moving their buying from the short on the maturity base to the longs. And we saw what happened. It didn't do anything. The commentary. So I'm not exactly sure. Do you believe, is this an Operation Twist? Or is it just Bessence, like what he did with the pad of paper where he showed he was buying the yen and that was supposed to do something dramatic from just the optics.

45:35Yeah. Is this rearranging the deck chairs to some extent? Yes, that is what it is. And it's totally cosmetic and the market sees that it's cosmetic. Okay. So basically this Operation Twist, maybe? Yeah. I mean, yeah. You could certainly argue that this is either rearranging the deck chairs, on the ship or even more of a blatant attempt to just move the market one way or the other. We know that the president wants lower long-term rates as much as anything else. And the Treasury, we can argue about Fed independence, but the Treasury is not independent. The Secretary of the Treasury works for the president.

46:16Right. And that's what they're trying to do. What's a little disturbing to me at some level is Besant knows this isn't going to work. He has to. And he knows this has to be temporary. Right? I mean, he started his career working for Soros when Soros broke the pound because the Bank of England could not keep the pound at the low end of the European exchange mechanism indefinitely. He knew that. In 2013, Besant had a big trade on his own where he basically did the same thing in the yen. So he knows that if markets are moving in a tidal direction, you can't – central banks or fiscal authorities can't fight that without actually doing something.

47:10Might the Bank of Japan raise rates? Yes. Yes, might the government of Japan do something to try to rectify the fiscal situation? Yes, that's what shifts the tides. It's not just a matter of, oh, let's go out there and buy a few yen, or let's go out there and move a few treasuries. What's going on here does nothing to fix the secular situation that you and I just discussed about longer term rates, both in the US and globally. This is just a cosmetic move. But again, the fact that it's time to end the day before the midterms, that tells us right on its face exactly what the aim is. So let's again, let's take another turn.

47:58I want to talk about commodities because quietly in the background, commodities, for a lot of different reasons. You want to look at oil, why? Well, of course we know. And this whole thing I've talked about this week on a podcast earlier this week, I talked about how, you know, my concern is that we really have a lot less oil than we think. As a matter of fact, crack spreads on diesel are out of control. I think the oil prices in Europe today were some absurd number, like$165, converted$165 per barrel or something. There's been some really crazy things going on. But down here, we're like, ah, it's only$4 a gallon, which isn't terrible in most areas.

48:32But in the background for investors, we're seeing the commodities are working pretty well, right? Everybody's focusing on AI. Everybody's focusing on technology. So what role of commodities play in a portfolio today? I have my thoughts on that. I'd like to hear yours. I think commodities play an important role in a portfolio today. You know, I always hold a little bit of gold and some other stuff. I just always have. But I think in general, yes, I always hold energy shares for that reason, for the same reason. because I think the needle on inflation, bottom line, let's take it from its most basic thing.

49:14If the Fed wants 2 % inflation, that's not saying they expect prices to go down. That's saying their goal is for prices to just rise really slowly, that they're still going up. So it's moving in that direction. And you raise some very important points. Copper, Dr. Copper is sometimes, right? They say, right? It's, right? If we're building data centers, you need wires in those data centers. You need copper to do the wiring. You need all kinds of commodities to build these things out. At the same time, the crude oil prices have been very firm. I saw something that US inventories were as low as like 41 days or something like that.

49:57So we're basically not refilling. We're just using up what we have. I think China's doing the same, but they had much bigger inventories. so they can get away with it longer. At the same time, remember that you and I don't use crude oil. We use gasoline. We use home heating oil, depending on how you heat your house, or natural gas, depending on how you heat your house. The truckers use diesel, and you refer to the crack spread. Refining capacity is not getting any better. By the way, building out copper mines, refineries, oil wells, all these things take a long time. So you can have relatively long periods of supply-demand relative imbalances.

50:46On top of it, the Ukraine war is not helping the crack spread either. That's why Europe is going so crazy because a lot of refining capacity, particularly for diesel, comes from Russia and Ukraine. And they're busy bombing each other's refineries. So, you know, and then diesel is used in everything. Anything that gets from point A to point B probably utilizes diesel for at least some part of its trip. So it's a very sneaky embedded cost. Agricultural commodities, the cost of fertilizers going up. Part of that is because of the situation in the Gulf. Part of it has to do with El Nino and the anchovy crop, the anchovy catch being down.

51:27And so you talked about sort of like the storm that nobody's watching back to 2007, 2008. This is problematic because what I've rattled off is not just one thing. It's several things that were already probably in place before the activities in the Persian Gulf. And those did nothing to make it any better. They just piled on at a very inopportune time. And it's interesting because I think back to what we started talking about in the beginning, which is the idea that there's a lot of chatter. There's a lot of things that are being put out there. Markets are seeing what they want to see. And when we see that the 65 billion barrels of proven reserves in Venezuela that somehow we got our hands on, nobody asked the question, how long is that going to take?

52:22because essentially, for the most part, Chevron's doing a little bit down there, but there is no operations down there and there is clearly no refining going on down there. And what kind of oil? It's the heavy, it's the sour, it's the very difficult to refine, very expensive to refine. And that process is going to take years. We're talking about down to 41 days. We're talking about 10 % inventories in other places. We're talking about the salt caverns in New Orleans, in Louisiana and in Texas that are now questionable in terms of their ability to hold because of the drying out of their walls. And again, nobody seems to really be caring about it.

53:06And if you do care, and if you do say something about it, they're probably gonna hit you back in the face about what an idiot. I feel like that's just what I started the conversation about back in 2006 when I was sitting on the desk, kids ranting and stuff, cutting off my tie and tearing my shirt off and saying, people, why don't you listen? Oh, that guy's an idiot. I'm not, I'll just finish my one point here and then get back to your comment on it. But I'm not saying, I'm not suggesting, I'm not, by the way, that we're in for an all out, absolute, any day now kind of situation, right? I think there's too much money still sloshing around in the markets from Inflation Reduction Act, from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, from all sorts of crazy things that are out there, the builds, the leakage of government money, of sovereign wealth funds, et cetera.

53:49However, all that seems, it seems to be a gigantic sponge that's starting to suck that up and dry things out a little bit. And that's kind of how I see my concern over the next six months. I would push back on you if I thought there was anything to really push back on. You and I are making the same sort of points, right? You know, I was calling it a tailwind turned headwind. You use the term sponge sucking up the liquidity. Both are appropriate. But again, you know, like markets, if everyone is convinced that everything is fine, then it is fine. It's, you know, the Wiley Coyote effect. You know, I don't want to use that here because it implies it would fall off a total cliff.

54:38I don't know that that's happening. But sort of, you know, chasing the roadrunner off the cliff and continuing to run, run, run, and he's fine until he looks down and goes, oh, and then he falls. You know, I think that to some extent that's a sort of appropriate analogy for the market right now where, you know, if nobody recognizes that maybe we're, you know, maybe we're standing on some much less stable. precipice than we thought we were, then, you know, why bother? Why not? Why, you know, again, going back to the FOMO insurance idea, you see on a, we're taping this Thursday, you saw on a day like today, it didn't take much because as all it takes is, you know, a little bit of a rally and that FOMO kicks in.

55:29I can't miss that rally. I got to jump in. I got to chase. And, you know, As long as that psychology prevails or until some group of people say, oh, wait a minute, we're out at the edge of a cliff here or we're out over the edge of the cliff, it persists until it doesn't. I know that's a terrible market analysis or a terrible market strategy, but to some extent, I think it's true. Yeah. Let me give you something, if I may, if you can use it. I'm giving you permission to use this if you choose to. The Wile E. Coyote, I like that. We're going to use that. But how about this? It's a sinkhole. Basically, a sinkhole.

56:14You got this giant area that's a river that's running underneath a road, a rock bed, a piece of land. And everything is fine, right? You could drive your car over. Everything is great. But there's still a lot of destruction being done underneath the surface that's invisible by most, unless you had some kind of equipment to figure it out that could pierce through the ground, etc. And you really don't know about it. Most times you don't know about it. There's no sinkhole service out there that's going to do a predictive nature of that. But the sinkhole, once it does open, kind of sucks everything back, sucks everything in, and it takes it and sweeps it all away.

56:49That's the way that I'm looking at things when I see this. It's a big sinkhole environment right now. Yeah, undercutting underneath a stable surface. You've got stuff that you can't see that will come get you. I've used something similar, not the term sinkhole, but I've used something similar to describe market volatility to a large extent. Because, you know, people ask me all the time, oh, you know, VIX is 15. There's no fear. Part one is VIX is not a fear gauge. It plays one on TV. But it is a very dry measure of implied volatility expectations. Yes, we expect when we have volatility, we expect more volatility.

57:30When we have no volatility, we expect no volatility. And that's why it tends to act like a fear gauge. Or my other analogy there is, you know, when I was trading volatility, I was an umbrella salesman. Nobody wanted to buy my umbrellas when the sun was shining. As soon as the clouds came, they would pay anything for them, especially once it started raining. But one of the things that we see underneath the market is there's very high levels of dispersion in individual stocks. And so what happens is when all the stocks are moving in the same direction, they never all do, but when you have the vast preponderance of them moving in the same direction, that increases volatility.

58:12And I'll use a very simple example. Let's say we have a two-stock index, stock A and stock B. And on day one, stock A and stock B, yeah, exactly. Stock A and stock, doesn't matter what they are. We'll just buy the index. Stock A and stock B both move up a half a percent. Okay. Okay. The index moves up half a percent. That's not, you know, nice. A little bit of volatility in the market. You know, they both move down 1%. Market moves down 1%. They move together. Right. On another day, stock A moves up 10%. Stock B moves down 10%. What'd the index do? Nothing. Um, exactly. So which, which day was more volatile?

59:00You can argue day two, but from an index volatility point of view, it was day one because that, because the index actually moved on day two, it didn't. Correct. So I'm greatly oversimplifying, but that was, that's the best math free way that I can do this. However, put that, let me just interrupt you for a second, because I think if you actually think through that for a second, that is exactly what's going on. I do not have the proof, but I believe if you look at what's going on and you can see the footprints in the sand from this, that there is algorithms are out there trying their best to make sure there is not a lot of rocking going on on the big picture from the outside.

59:38And when I've seen this so many times when you see a stock, a major player that's really taking on the chin, all of a sudden you see the markets, they're not doing much. Maybe even they're going up. So many times IBM back in the day or even Meta gets whacked. The whole market's doing fine. I think there's an algorithmic process, a gentleman's agreement somewhere out there that do not let the market start doing anything. Because once they do, the Momo traders are going to get a hold of it and start moving the entirety of the market. And we don't want that happening.

1:00:10I'm going to say it's less conspiratorial. As someone who did a lot of algorithmic trading, I never even spoke to anybody else doing this stuff. So I don't know that there's a conspiracy. But I think it's more, I just think it's behavioral. If algorithms play statistics and patterns, and so if the pattern for 15 years running is every dip is going to be bought, then your algorithms will reflect that. Sure. Right? And we see that behavior in our customers. When there is a dip, they come in. And it tends to work for them over time. It doesn't work every single stock every single time. Of course.

1:00:51But we see this. And so algorithms, if they're playing the odds and playing the percentages and recognizing this behavior, that's what it is. So I'm not going to go down a – I'm not going to say there's any great conspiracy. I think it could be explained by just pure statistics. But I do think, yeah, that's exactly what it is. And, you know, as long as the cavalry is going to keep coming to the rescue, you know, then you're going to take these risks and you're going to continue to be rewarded for taking these risks. And one day, one day it doesn't work. But who knows when that is? And, you know, hey, you only live once anyway.

1:01:41So let's take our shot. I like it. Well, the theme of our investment analysis, you only live once. Just let it rip. Steve Sosnick. Steve Sosnick. I appreciate your coming aboard, as usual, doing a great job at explaining things in a very understandable way. Make sure we'll have all the links also. Visit all the things. He does a lot of writing, does a lot of education, obviously podcasting as well. So we'll have the links back to your areas on the Interactive Brokers website. Thanks so much. My pleasure, Andrew. Thank you so much. Take care. All right, thanks. There you go. So we had a lot of the things that I was thinking initially that I brought to him, interestingly, on the same page.

1:02:27He said it several times, and I thought it was really interesting. I was sitting here nodding my head the whole time in agreement with so many things that he had to say, because we know that a lot of the things that are going on right now are covering up, maybe not in a conspiratorial manner, but they're covering up some of the things that really are happening under the surface that may not be as pretty as they could be. Listen, thanks for joining me this week and every week we have some great guests coming up over the next few weeks. Make sure to be there, go over to Instagram, make sure to subscribe, go to Apple, Amazon, Spotify, and get on it and do it.

1:03:00We'll see you. Thank you. Have a great Labor Day. Have a great summer ending. And we're on for the next part of the year into the end.

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1:04:36We'll be right back.