In defence of Europe - from Charleston Festival

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0:58The New Statesman Bloomsbury Group, a place shaped by ideas, argument and cultural exchange. I'd been invited to chair a discussion in the festival's In Defence Of series. Ten years on from the referendum that redirected the course of British politics, we gathered to consider a question that still sits at the centre of Britain's national debate. How should we think about our relationship with Europe? Joining me in this old house, long defined by international influences and European friendships, was Caroline Lucas, the former leader of the Green Party and former MEP, Anna Menon, director of UK and a Changing Europe, and Marina Wheeler, barrister and author of A More Perfect Union, The Europe We Need.

1:41Hello, everyone. It's absolutely wonderful to be here. I haven't been here before, and it's absolutely gorgeous. And a lovely break from Westminster, where we came from this morning, which last time I checked is still just about standing but we'll see later. There was a sort of hint that we began this discussion earlier in the green room so I can confirm I think it's going to be, we're going to have differences of opinion on the stage which I think is great. So I think we're going to kick off with Caroline who can offer us her defence of Europe and perhaps Britain's place in Europe before we move on to, I think, different ideas of what Europe means and a different way of defending Europe across the stage.

2:32But I'll hand over to Caroline, and I'll shut up. Thank you, Tom. Yes, I am very delighted to make the case for rejoining the European Union. And, you know, for a few moments, I thought that... APPLAUSE For a few moments, I thought that Keir Starmer was agreeing with me, because you might have heard him say on Monday that he wants to take the UK back to the heart of the EU. Well, at the risk of stating the bleeding obvious, you can't be at the heart of something that you're not in, in the first place. So I would love him to agree with himself and say, yes, let's be at the heart of Europe. And that means getting rid of his very arbitrary red lines, these red lines that are crippling our economy, that are undermining our security and that are making a lot of people very miserable.

3:22So my argument would be very strongly that we should rejoin. We should start straight away talking about the single market and the customs union, but with a view to getting together at the next election to say at that point we would want to start negotiations to rejoin the EU. Now, having said that, as Tom indicated, there was a little bit of pushback on that proposal in the green room. And I just wanted to address a few of the points that were made. So first of all, there are people who will say, but what about the vote to leave 10 years ago? Surely it's desperately undemocratic to seek to overturn that.

4:00And it is odd to me as someone who's been in the electoral system and around politics for a long time that somehow there's just one vote that you're not allowed to reverse and every other vote every three or four years you're allowed to reverse it. But this one is pickled in aspic and you cannot reverse it. Well, of course you can. and I would argue that you should because the world has changed so much. And not only has the world changed so much, but actually voters have. And if it's not too indelicate to say it, as a result of demographics, which is a delicate way of saying around six million people have died since 2016, the vast majority of whom were more likely to A, vote, and B, vote to leave.

4:41Actually, seriously, if you do look at the demographics, and Peter Kellner has crunched the numbers on this, What he says is basically now that a combined impact of demographics and people having changed their minds converts a 1.3 million majority for leaving the EU to an 8.1 majority for rejoining. And I think there is a very powerful argument to say that if somehow you're still going to say that that means that we should still keep to the leave position, that in a way is kind of privileging the views of the dead over the views of those who are now able to vote, because there have been around six million young people who have become eligible to vote since 2016.

5:24So those two six millions kind of are the same figure, but with a very different set of views when it comes to what they think the EU should be doing. So I think the democratic argument doesn't stand up. The other thing that people will say is, well, of course, the single market, that means free movement, you know, shock and horror. Well, all through the Brexit debate, I was absolutely proud to say I stand for free movement. And in any case, I think the ability to live, love, work, travel, and be able to live our lives in 27 other member states is a gift, and one that we should uphold, not one that we should rip up.

5:59But even if you were worried about that, if we look at what's happened since we left 10 years ago, actually the vast majority of immigration from Eastern Europe has now come, the people that were going to come. Most of those countries have labour shortages themselves now. A country like Poland is on course to be richer than we are by 2035. So this idea that somehow there are going to be millions and millions of people who are all queuing up to come here and none of us leaving is also not held up by the facts. You're going to shut me up in a minute. But I just want to say maybe one other quick thing, which is that a lot of people would say with some justification that, well, surely the EU isn't going to want us back, especially not if there's a risk of a reformed government at the next election.

6:45and I can see their point about that. But do you know what? To me, that is just yet another argument in favour of proportional representation. If we had a fairer voting system, then the chances of a Farage-led government would be diminishingly small. It would not happen. And so my plea to Keir Starmer, for as long as he's still there, and as far as I know he is, then would be, first of all, rip up your red lines. Second of all, seriously, do everything that you can between now and the next election to safeguard our democracy from the very real risk of a reform government because anybody who thinks that reform is just like any other party frankly just isn't paying attention you know they have said quite clearly two million people they would be happy to deport a very short time after coming into power this is existential so we absolutely need to change our voting system in any case and fireproof our democracy and our creaking governance systems because of that threat but it has the happy coincidence of being able to I think reassure our EU colleagues that we are serious about this and this is not a decision that would get overturned through a reformed government.

7:52And the final thing just to say is of course the world has changed so much in ten years. You know we now have someone in the White House who is feral, who is totally narcissistic, who has a totally transactional approach to politics, to foreign policy. You know as Mark Carney said you know the old order isn't coming back that this is not a transition, it's a rupture. Life is so different now. Our future is so different now. If this was a government that was serious about putting the country first, as it keeps saying it is, then it would absolutely commit now to rejoin the EU. APPLAUSE

8:37Well, Marina... LAUGHTER ..you're going to have a difficult job, I imagine.

8:42Marina Wheeler: I know. I know I don't have the room, and Caroline is brilliant, and I'm not expecting any applause whatsoever. But it would be so boring if we all agreed. So here I am saying that I don't agree that the best way to preserve liberal democracy, to move forward in this very changed world, is to rejoin the EU. And it was mentioned in the introduction that I'm now not just a barrister, but a mediator. So with my mediator's hat on, I'm just going to start my very few brief comments by identifying the things that I do agree with Caroline on. And I think we both, I would say I love Europe. I would identify as a Europhile.

9:27Marina Wheeler: I love all sorts about, you know, living and loving and moving and all of that. But the EU isn't Europe. It's a bigger entity. And I think, number one, I would love it if people could come to realise that you can love Europe and want, you know, all of the continent to flourish, but not think that the modern European Union is the best way to do it. And... Oh, my God, that was at least one clap. Thank you. So now, fueled by that encouragement, I'm plunging on to say that I think the truth is that the EU and other European countries are not flourishing in a way, that leaves us sort of in the dark.

10:19Marina Wheeler: The truth is that the EU itself is struggling. It knows it has to change. And I want to be part, and the other member states, we're not the only ones who have a far-right party poised to take power. There are many other... In fact, we're rather behind the curve, I think, on that. There are many other parties in Europe who share this basic fact, which is a lot of the voters are disenchanted with the status quo. And I'm afraid to say that the EU very much symbolises the status quo and does need to change. And my big worry about the EU as it was, was that too many decisions were being taken too far away from ordinary citizens.

11:02Marina Wheeler: And that is not good for democracy. I mean, I think you have to address that. And if you don't, you know, in a sense, all the other things become rather secondary. So what I would like to see is us, the UK, being part of that movement, that change to help the EU, but us too, for our own interests, be able to change and develop in a way that we can be closer. And that all, you know, there are many countries in Europe waiting to join. I mean, there's the Balkans, there's Ukraine. How is that going to work? The reality is, as the EU itself recognises, it is not going to work in the current way that the EU operates.

11:44Marina Wheeler: Decision making will be stultified. So drawing that up, I think in summary, I would say that Europe is bigger than just the EU. We should really put a lot of effort into our cooperation in defence in NATO. I think we've shown our commitment to the wider European continent through supporting Ukraine. I'm personally a great supporter of the European Convention on Human Rights, which has nothing to do with the EU. But again, it's a sign of, as I see it, values and commitment. And it is somewhere that we can show some leadership. And I think also, having left the EU, I am worried that if we walk away from another old institution, that we will not be forgiven for that.

12:34Marina Wheeler: But I think then, otherwise, we should try and work with voices within the EU to get it focused on the really important things, the core things of prosperity, which means letting go of all sorts of things that over the years it started to do. So it's this do less, do better, and have looser arrangements with other countries that will allow us to avoid an incredibly divisive fight that we will have over rejoining. Because, I mean, we'll maybe get into this later, I don't think it was right for the entirety of the country. And this is a democracy. We have to bring everyone along. so let's create something that everyone can feel content with and we can have some stability for a change

13:28I'm Marina you did get your clap there that's a good thing I'm listening to what you were saying I think two things jumped out at me from my experience looking into this in the history of Europe you're right to say clearly that that Europe is not a static entity, it is constantly evolving, whether that's having Britain as a member, joining a few years later than the original members, or then leaving, or then Ukraine, looking to want to join. Whatever it is that we seek to rejoin will be different from the entity that we left. I think that's an interesting sort of observation that you made because it is constantly changing.

14:07Anand, you know about this as much as anybody else. And the other thing that jumped out at me from what you both said is this phrase, you know, at the heart of Europe. You know, as you point out, there is an absurdity, clearly, in what Keir Starmer was saying. He went into the general election saying that Labour would make Brexit work. And then two years later, to save his job, he is talking about returning Britain to the heart of Europe. It's actually the same phrase that John Major used. and I think that is something that is also worth kind of reflecting on and maybe and this is this is a point for you John Major was using that phrase to lead Britain back into the heart of Europe in I think it was sort of 1991 and that was over the question of the ERM and Margaret Thatcher and and the sort of battles that were then underway over the single currency and Britain's relationship with the single currency and the view back then of course from the Treasury and the Foreign Office was that you had to be tied to the ERM, tying your currency to Europe's pursuit of the single currency to be able to be at the heart of Europe.

15:19If you were not in the ERM, you couldn't be. And that was the central dividing line in the early 1990s. And I think it's one thing perhaps, Caroline, that you didn't draw on, which is this question about would we have to join the euro if we went back into the European Union. And perhaps you can sort of pick up on some of those themes. OK, I'm slightly hamstrung in this debate in the sense that I'm not really allowed to express my own opinions, but what I want to try and do is spell out. There are some really difficult trade-offs around the debate about Brexit at the moment. First and most obvious one is that Brexit is costing us money.

15:56I think we now have evidence to show without a doubt that there is a significant economic impact from being outside the European Union I think some of the estimates that put the figure as high as 8 % are a bit silly but it is a significant amount I think if there was any other public policy that was costing us the money that Brexit is costing us it would be a public policy we would be having second thoughts about so that's the first thing the second thing is Caroline's absolutely right in an age of geopolitical uncertainty. The one thing I've really come to realise under Trump too, which I was naive perhaps not to have thought about more beforehand, is just how important geography is.

16:35And the fact of geography means we share interests with those countries near us in a way we don't with countries that are miles away from us. And it seems absolutely bleedingly obvious, but actually it's quite an important principle to bear in mind with your foreign policy, and I think we are going to end up having to work closer with European countries, partly because of Trump, partly because even after Trump, Europeans are going to have to look after themselves a bit more. So I think, you know, it's not a stable equilibrium where we are now. It's not a nice, comfortable status quo. It's a very, very wobbly one.

17:07And it's a wobbly one that's made even wobblier, I think, by the fact that what Keir Starmer has been trying to do is going to make very little difference. He's got these negotiations underway with the European Union at the moment. The government's own estimates say there's about 0.3 % of GDP if everything goes well and if we have a tailwind. Now the fact is the negotiations aren't going well, so there's no guarantee he'll get even that. So there are good reasons to be upset about the status quo. Thinking about the rejoin question and what Caroline was saying, I've got several reflections. Firstly, I don't believe Peter Kellner's numbers, which is a very brave thing to say about Peter Kellner and numbers.

17:42But I don't believe them for several reasons. One, because I think any question about rejoining or having a closer relationship with the European Union that doesn't spell out trade-offs is going to get a misleading answer. Would you like to be in the single market? Oh, yes, please. That sounds nice if it'll make us rich. Would you want to be in the single market if it means freedom and movement, enormous payments into the EU budget, and the fact that we will no longer be able to set the rules for our economy? That becomes a slightly different trade-off. And I think people aren't really thinking about this yet, which is another core point about the rejoin argument, is if you sit in a focus group with voters now and say the word Brexit, half of them will hide under the table with their fingers in their ears, humming to themselves because they never want to hear the word again as long as they live.

18:24There's a sort of collective PTSD about Brexit in this country. I mean, you all seem like very nice people. You seem representative of one side of the debate, if I may say so. There are other parts of the country that would react differently to this conversation, let me say. but one thing that voters seem to agree on is we're not going through that again okay so then you've got to decide whether as a political party you want to go into the next election with front and center an issue no one wants to talk about that strikes me as bad politics it also strikes me as bad politics to think about doing it at a time we're in a really interesting moment in british politics not because of the pantomime that's playing out in westminster today but because at the end of this month we're going to get net migration figures which i guess are going to be pretty close to zero.

19:12There's going to be a massive turnaround in the numbers when it comes to immigration. There is a real possibility that our debate about immigration is going to change quite profoundly between now and the next general election because we're no longer talking about hundreds of thousands coming in, we're talking about where are the immigrants. Under those circumstances, does a Labour government really want to major on the one issue which you know Nigel Farage will be able to use to reunite and motivate voters base to get out and vote. I think that would be a very dangerous thing to do. And then there are practicalities about rejoin.

19:43And maybe rejoin is the best option, but we shouldn't go into its starry eye and think it's an easy option for a number of reasons. One of the things we've realised in our discussions with the EU to date that Keir Starmer is carrying out is they will fleece us on every occasion they get. We've rejoined the Erasmus scheme for student exchange, which audiences like you usually cheer, so I'm pretty sure you didn't. It's costing us half a billion pounds for a year. As far as the European Union are concerned, this is a battle of interests, and their interest is to extract as much from us as humanly possible as we would to an outside state if we were part of the European Union.

20:25Negotiating our way back in is going to be painful. It's going to be intrusive. it's going to mean European officials crawling over the minutiae of regulations in our country in a way that is far more sort of in your face than anything when you're a member state the worst place to be with the European Union is a candidate member state because they have the complete control over you and I just wonder whether at a time when in our country there are so many things here at home we need to fix we need a social care system we need a decent property tax We need to figure out bloody planning once and for all.

21:00And there are lots of things we can do here that will help our economy grow. It does seem to me we need to think carefully before we commit to a process that I guess is going to last five to ten years, it won't be quick, where EU relations suck the life out of everything else and God knows we've been there before. That will be a very, very bold gamble to take. And I think even if you're going to applaud Caroline for saying we should take it, be aware of the fact this won't be easy and it won't be painless. What about the euro question? Would we have to rejoin? Well, I think we would have to rejoin in the sense that we'd have to sign a piece of paper saying we are hereby saying that if we fulfil the conditions, we will rejoin the euro.

21:39There are two member states now who fulfil the conditions, the Swedes and the Poles. Neither of them have any intention of joining the euro. And I think the European Union knows better than to actually take them to court. whether they have different stipulations to us I was wondering this I was talking to a friend who worked in the European Union the other day and just wondering if there would be a Farage clause if we did rejoin that says if you choose to leave again this is the number you'd have to pay they will hedge against our political futures and not only would the deal not be the deal we had last time there'd be no budget rebate all those sorts of things but it's also worth saying as Tom intimated, that the European Union we would be joining is a far less Britain-friendly European Union than the one we left.

22:27This is a European Union that does joint borrowing of the kind the British government always tried to veto. This is a European Union where the European Commission has the sort of role in defence policy that British governments of both sides would always veto. The European Union would feel even more foreign to us this time round than it did last time round because it's changed in very non-British ways since 2016. I think that's a good point to bring Caroline back in because I think there's the challenge, essentially. I'm interested in this sort of five to ten year period of negotiating back in and what you think about that because I remember during the referendum campaign one point that I thought David Cameron made that I'm surprised didn't get more pick-up and actually has felt quite real subsequently was this argument that we will just spend 10 years debating how to leave and working all of that, which we could have done, we could have used to do something better.

23:24Do you think the same mistake could happen in reverse if we try to rejoin? I think we haven't diverged that much from the EU yet. So if we were to start renegotiating fairly soon, then it would be an awful lot quicker and a lot less difficult than it would be if we were from a starting point where we had no alignment on our standards, for example. So I think five to ten years is a fairly pessimistic perspective. But I wanted to say two other things as well. I mean, Anand said quite humorously that any talk of Brexit will drive people under the table with their fingers in their ears. And that would certainly be true if it was anything like the discussions we had on Brexit ten years ago.

24:07And I would be the first person to say that the Remain campaign ten years ago was absolutely unforgivably terrible. It was top-down. It was absolutely led by the wrong people. It was technocratic. We were banging on about how much your supermarket trolley of shopping was going to cost, while the other side was talking about really visceral things about who we are and our sense of identity and taking back control. So it was a terrible campaign. I think a campaign that was fronted by young people, for example, and was actually fronted by people who can have direct experience of what Brexit has meant for them.

24:41So I'm thinking of all of those small businesses that have had a terrible time and probably gone out of business as a direct result of what's happened for Brexit. It could be a very different conversation. I also think that we ought to recognise that not everybody who voted Brexit was voting on the issue of the European Union. That might sound controversial, but in my experience, and I went round the country in the aftermath of that vote, I set up this thing called Dear Leavers and went to lots of the places that had voted overwhelmingly to leave so you know Dudley and Dagenham and places like that and sat down with people and listened and that was the first thing because so many people just felt that they hadn't been listened to for so long they felt that Whitehall and London could as well be on another planet for the relevance it had to their lives there was so much frustration is what I'm saying, particularly in England, because we don't have the same kind of political institutions that represent England in Englishness as Scotland and Wales have.

25:41I think there was this pent-up anger and frustration about a sense of just simply not being listened to, because we haven't talked about the fact that, of course, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to, well, not overwhelmingly, but much more positively to remain. The vote in Wales was a lot tighter than it was in England. I think you can make a very strong case that Brexit was primarily an English-driven phenomenon. And I think it's worth trying to unpack why that might be. And I do think a lot of that was to do with a sense of powerlessness and anger and not having our own political institutions. So ironically, the one opportunity people had to express their anger about that was when it came to that European vote as well.

26:19So I don't think... I certainly take on board from what both Marina and Anand have said that going back into the EU wasn't a walk in the park. Of course it's going to be difficult and of course there are going to be trade-offs. But at the same time, I also think that it's perfectly more possible and more positive than perhaps Anand made it sound. And the last thing to say is, when others have said that, well, the EU isn't doing all that great at the moment, either economically or in any other way, that in some senses is true. But my arguments aren't only the economic ones, although I think there is a strong economic case for rejoining.

26:55It's not just a transactional argument. It's about where we think our future lies. And I think what we've just seen happening from the US over the last few years should really underline for us that our allies and the people with whom we have greater solidarity are the ones who are our neighbours, not ones who are likely to try and take over Greenland, given half a chance. Marina, can I pick up on some of that and I guess gently challenge you on interests and geography and these kind of things. If it is the case, which it does look like it's the case, that the United States wants to withdraw as quickly as it can from Europe, the NATO that you talk about is not the same NATO.

27:42It's a European NATO. If we are left to our own devices, if we have shared interests with Europe, economic and... security interests, but also sort of a sense of shared identity and values with the continent that is right there. Why shouldn't we seek a kind of political expression of that? Why shouldn't we want to find a way of working together that sort of binds us together and we can have a kind of a shared destiny in a sense.

28:19Marina Wheeler: I mean, I agree with all of your description, Tom, of Britain's place and the desire to have a shared destiny or be close. But I do disagree that there's something binary about it's either Europe or the US. I mean, I think we've always, you know, for decades, managed to have relationships with both. And I think, you know, despite the challenges of the Trump administration, some of which are really very extreme, I think we've got to carry on with a deep relationship with the US. Yes, they're disengaging. I mean, militarily. And this was always on the cards. I mean, you know, even from the beginning, when the Americans during the Cold War deployed in Europe extensively as they did, this was always meant to be a temporary position.

29:11Marina Wheeler: So to an extent we have allowed ourselves to become dependent, I think it's right that we should take more control of our destiny. And of course, you know, the flip side of that was they spent all the money on defence, but also they wanted to be in charge. So personally, I think, yes, this sort of greater autonomy is a good thing. But I think there's a big difference. we've always been an ally, you know, in Europe. And I think that's, you know, why I mentioned Ukraine, which is that I think when we left the EU, there was an anxiety that Britain was going to become this sort of isolated country.

29:47Marina Wheeler: And we absolutely haven't become that. And we were, you know, we were very quick to express our support for NATO, and to show that in no way are we withdrawing into ourselves? So I think what I would envisage is, of course, the dangerous world that everyone recognises means closer cooperation with Europe. That predominantly means also, you know, strengthening the European arm of NATO, which has been there but has not really been used. Of course we must do that. But, you know, we must do it, and this works both ways. I think without messing up the conversation with this complexity about the EU.

30:30Marina Wheeler: So, for example, there is a procurement programme, the safe procurement programme. Of course, Britain should be part of that. We have a very well-developed defence system, but the EU is demanding silly amounts of money for us to be involved in. So I think the distinction, just so I'm not sort of talking too long about this, is that I don't think the EU is a way, is the only way, the existing EU is the only way for us to be, you know, cooperate politically. I think Britain outside, not, you know, not sort of stifled by trying to find agreement among 27 still quite different countries, more aligned economically, but with quite different political traditions, being able to make our own choices.

31:20Marina Wheeler: I mean, as I see it, the challenges of the world, so are not just, you know, military challenges, but they're also competitiveness, that we need to be nimble. And I think we can show a sort of, you know, as an ally, a kind of competitive, a sort of friendly competitive way of being with the EU that I do think would be to the benefit of all of us. Okay, and I wanted again to pick up on a couple of things, but one thing that strikes me is how this debate can change and how it can shift quite quickly because of conditions outside Britain sometimes, whether it's geopolitical, security, all of these types of questions.

32:03I cast my mind back to the original referendum to go back in, And I was quite surprised when I was researching about that referendum. And the highest join areas in the country were Essex. And the highest leave areas were the Shetland Isles, parts of Scotland. It was a completely inverse map to what we saw in 2016. And of course, if you look at the politics back in 1975, The left of the Labour Party was overwhelming the Eurosceptic and the Conservative Party were the pro-European party. And things have obviously completely inverted. Now, there is a kind of scenario where Europe or the EU changes significantly while we're out.

32:53It elects not just Maloney, but a Le Pen or an AFD in Germany. And Europe itself moves dramatically to the populist right. now if that were to happen how does that impact our sense of wanting to join this thing and does it change does it is there a chance that it changes our politics entirely where the right the populist right start to look at that kind of Europe and think hang on maybe I want to join that Europe and there are kind of dangers in the other direction I find it quite hard to wrap my head round. I mean, what I would say is I think a Europe that is far right in political complexion becomes more hostile to us and more tempted to be protectionist and to limit our participation.

33:42I mean, that that will be the temptation is to put to pull down the shutters even more. And I think here the discourse about sovereignty has become such an integral part of the narrative of the right in this country. I don't see that going now. And this is partly because we've never internalised the politics of European integration. If you think about European integration, okay, virtually every single member state now, there is, European integration is an economic project, but for them it's an economic project that you pursue for political reasons. So for the original six, integrating coal and steel wasn't because you thought integrating coal and steel was cool, it was to prevent war.

34:23okay, for the countries of southern Europe joining the European Union was about entrenching democracy. So for all the other member states there's a political narrative. We were transactionalist from the start. We wanted to join the market because it was a market, end of. And so from the start I think that glue or that political sort of narrative that overrides concerns about sovereignty was never part of how we think about things. I mean I remember years ago, so in the early 1990s I was doing my PhD and I had to go and do some work in the French Parliament's library. Every single book in the library in the French Parliament has got a sticker on it that says, Montpellier, Europe is my country.

35:03I remember looking at this thinking, weirdos, no, it's not, your country's France. Because I'm British, right? It just doesn't compute. That's how they're used to thinking about Europe. And I think actually for a fundamental shift, we need to find a narrative that reconciles ourselves as a country with the European story. and I just don't see how certainly the right of the political spectrum does that.

35:24Marina Wheeler: Why? Why would we do that? I mean, it seems to me that, I mean, I think you're right, but why, the reason why there's this profound difference does seem to be because of our, you know, great, the great historical difference, which is that we didn't have our institutions smashed up at the end of the Second World War and we haven't had to rebuild, which they have done. and so you know if you look at the think of the state that France and Germany I mean every almost every other um one of the member state you know the whole of Eastern Europe completely you know under the Soviet yoke so that's why I think it's emotionally hard is that our system has by and large and I'm saying this partly as a lawyer because I think our legal system is one of the strongest parts of our constitution it has worked well and so I think giving that up and you know everyone thinks sovereignty is a really abstract word but I think you know it actually is about who takes decisions and I think that is hard for this country to let go of and parliament you know sovereign parliament which has worked well doesn't mean it's perfect there's lots that could be done But I think that is such a strong, profound difference and that we probably do better to work with that.

36:43I think it's a hard case to say Parliament is working well at the moment. But I think on the identity question, I would love to hear both of your thoughts on that before we come to some questions in the audience. We'll save about 20 minutes for questions because I think it's not impossible to build a European identity. What is striking when I look back through the prime ministers we've had since the Second World War, I think what I discovered really, or I discovered myself, I hadn't really appreciated this, that the most radical of the prime ministers was really Edward Heath. He was the only one, the prime minister who took us into Europe, who really believed in it and really felt it in his soul.

37:32He felt that there was a European civilization to which we belonged. And when he went to America, he felt more alien than he did in Europe. And that was the core of his belief. Now, what is also striking, of course, is that he tried to sell that. He had a festival of Europe, but he thought there would be a grand national celebration when we went in. And, of course, it fell flat. and I've always thought there's a certain sadness about that. Anand and I were talking about a moment actually on the train down, we came down the same train, when Jacques Delors died in, I think it was 2024. It was quite recent, well maybe it wasn't quite so recently.

38:15But anyway, not a single British MP or member of the government attended his funeral. all of the main figures from each of the European countries attended. There was just one man, one Brit in the entire audience, and it was a guy called Charles Clarke, who Anna and I both know, who wrote a biography about him in the 90s. And that sort of small detail, I think, is quite telling about our continued disinterest in these questions of shared identity, which I think is a difficulty if we do seek to rejoin because it's that sort of what you need is a sense that we are of shared belonging in a sense. I think there's a greater sense of shared belonging than perhaps you give credit for.

39:07But I think my strongest argument would be that the world that we're going into now is so very different from the one 10 years ago or 30 years ago. And by that I mean we haven't talked at all yet about the existential threat of environmental breakdown, of the climate crisis, of the fact that we are, all of us, about to be facing a very, very different world very quickly. And at that point, then it feels to me that our greatest security is working with our closest neighbours to protect ourselves to the extent possible from that level of threat. We haven't talked really very much either about the fact that there's a war going on in Ukraine, in Europe right now.

39:47So if I was to come up with a kind of a unifying sense, it might not be an identity, but a sense, it would be around security. In its broadest sense, people want to not have to be worrying all the time about the future. People want to have that sense of a basic kind of safety and a sense of belonging to something bigger than ourselves. And I think that that is what the EU can give us on this. And Anne, quick final thoughts? Let me go back to geography then and just say that insofar as there was a Brexit story, the Brexit story was we will go out into the world free of the shackles of Europe in a world where our partners are open liberal trading economies, where globalisation is pushing forward at a pace and we will trade our way to success.

40:31Now, that was never an economically coherent plan because the costs of leaving were greater than any benefits of trade deals. But the world has changed. The US and the EU have become more protectionist. globalization has stalled if not gone into retreat that makes being in a world dominated by continental sized economies being outside an economy of that scale feels a little bit lonelier i think than it did back in 2016 and marina was quite right as as you know as a preference our country should avoid choosing between the united states and europe i'm just not convinced that's going to be possible going forward give you one example ai we've taken the decision we're going going to try and sort of align with the Americans as much as possible on AI to get loads of American investment in and so we're not going to sign up to European rules on AI.

41:19Okay that's fine as far as it goes. The European Union then starts saying well if you want to work with us on defense and given that so much defense equipment is AI based you can't. Your regulations are different we don't trust your systems. So I fear that being a medium-sized country in a world of continental sized economies we're going to be forced to make choices down the line and then we need to think I think about geography more than anything else.

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42:53Can we take some questions now? Shall we try and take three at a time? If you put your hand up and I'll try and come to you. Lady in the front. Lady over there. And man's the front here.

43:11this lady here we'll take the one at the front first then we'll come to you and then we'll come to the man in the beret I can see the emotional appeal of sovereignty and I like the way you were talking about it but if you look at this country I mean our nuclear sector is owned by foreign players so it's our water gas and electricity distribution and even the majority of our ports are owned by foreign players. I mean, that ship has sailed, hasn't it? And on top of that, we've also got big money getting more and more involved in our politics. I mean, what's the point of waving a little Union Jack?

43:52If you look at it against that background, it's just... It's almost an outdated concept. OK, that's a good question on... APPLAUSE The reality of sovereignty.

44:07Hello. I suppose my question is, I completely agree with what Caroline is saying, but given the current sort of febrile atmosphere with reform and the right-wing press, how would you manage to promote the idea of going back into Europe? Because I can just see that the right-wing press and reform would attack that in every way they possibly could. yes I think it's a fact that the this is addressed primarily to Caroline but also the other panelists as well it is a fact that the European Court of Auditors has not been able to approve the accounts of the EU for the last 14 or more years and connected with that is the issue of bringing in Romania and Bulgaria into the EU.

45:10They were not allowed to come in because they were so corrupt but then magically a year or so later they were allowed to come in. They managed to tick a lot of boxes but the corruption was still at the heart of their countries And of course, they, under the rotating presidency of the EU, both are entitled to be president of the EU. Thank you very much. Okay, so, Caroline, I think most of the questions had you in mind. I thought this was, and Marina will certainly come in, I thought this was an interesting question. It's something that sort of plays on my mind, the reality of sovereignty. the reality of a modern economy, thinking back to ideas of kind of social democracy and whether any government can have control over an economy.

46:06I'll say my very quick sort of point would be, if you look at Europe, if you think about the monetary systems that they use, you know, the bank systems, the internet that they use, all American owned. So it's not just a question of Britain at the moment. It's a question, you know, thinking about AI. There's only one country actually outside of the United States and China that has sovereign AI, I think, and that is France. That's because they put a lot of money and effort into maintaining it. But that question of sovereignty, I think, how you maintain some kind of control in a modern globalized world seems to me crucial.

46:45But do you want to? Yeah, I mean, it is a crucial question and you put it very well. And I think you're right in the sense that the ship has sailed. I mean, whether it should have sailed is another question. I am not happy that most of our water companies are owned by foreign companies in other countries, for example, any more than I am happy that the US basically has a veto over whether or not we use the nuclear weapons, which I wish we didn't have either. So I think that's an issue. But I think Tom talks about a really critical issue here, about how valuable to us is that sovereignty in terms of if we were to try and go the way of France, presumably it would cost a huge amount of money, to take AI as the example.

47:26my sense is that it's probably worth it. I am really worried, actually, about AI in particular. And hopefully, if we were part of the EU, we could influence what they were doing with that. But it feels that things are very vulnerable at the moment in the way that we're dealing with it. I thought the question about how we would actually promote rejoining in a world of right-wing media that, you know, totally emblazoned the lies, even bigger and brighter than they were already coming from the political leaders who were espousing them, is probably my biggest concern how we would do that. And there are lots of other reasons why we need to regulate the media in general and social media in particular, but that's certainly one of them.

48:11And I don't have an easy answer for that. I think it's going to be a major issue. But for that issue and for so many other reasons too, we ought to be regulating the media far more strongly. and there are bills in front of Parliament as a result of the King's speech that could help us do some of that, and we should. The Court of Auditors, it's so annoying. I used to have an answer to this and I can't remember what it was. I used to have a really... It was so long since we've had the Brexit arguments, but if Ann can remember the good answer to that, I'm going to pass over to you. What was it? Well, I mean, there are several answers.

48:46Well, I mean, the most obvious answer to the Court of Auditors point is simply that what the court of auditors have always found is that national governments haven't kept good enough control over people in their countries who are controlling the money. So actually, this is a problem of national government. It's not a problem of the European Union. It never has been a problem of the European Union. Exactly. On Bulgaria... No, it's not. I'll treasure that moment. Yeah. On Bulgaria and Romania, I think you're right. I mean, you're absolutely right. They were let in ahead of when they should have been for a whole host of political reasons.

49:17What I would say, though, is on corruption schools, both in the last two or three years have improved incredibly quickly. Marina?

49:25Marina Wheeler: I'll leave the Court of Auditors to one side. In fact, there was a commission that had to resign entirely. Do you remember? Because of a Court of Auditor. That was an octogenarian dentist, if you remember. Anyway, the sovereignty, I think, is the only real thing that I would answer to. I would say that I don't see sovereignty as a kind of you have it or you don't have it. It's a sort of, it's something that sort of ebbs and flows and it's in, you know, present in different areas. And I think economic sovereignty is a very different thing to, you know, political or legal sovereignty, although they're not watertight.

49:59Marina Wheeler: But I think you're completely right. But what you describe of, you know, foreign ownership of utilities and ports, I think is maybe part of a globalization and era that we are now, you know, looking at. for which the EU was a big proponent. But it was something we all, I think, accepted then, and that we now, because of the world changing and suddenly looking and seeing we have these dependencies that don't work for us, whether it's China or the US, I think we are looking at it again and thinking you've got to have certain industries that you do have control over. And my understanding is that this is a new consensus in politics, but that, you know, is important to regain some sense of national control.

50:50Marina Wheeler: And I, so I don't think that shit particularly sells. But then I also think that some of the things that I would say, you know, in the referendum debate and that matter about sovereignty are more things about who decides some of the big political questions. I mean, things like who should be entitled to benefits strikes me as a paradigm political thing that we will fight about and it's right that we should fight about at Westminster or wherever but it's wrong that that as it was should be something that's given say to the European Court of Justice which you know citizens European citizens should be entitled so it's things like that that I think if you keep giving your political you know last word on political things away you know people feel they've been robbed of of influence and and that's my big worry about you know people feeling they have no connection with politics and I wanted to come back just on that point very quickly I think that's partly a failure of our politics I think what we need is good healthy central and local government people want to feel like they have a say and they want to feel like they're in control one of the most interesting things that happened after the referendum in 2016 was for about two or three years the public never talked about immigration because the idea of having control was quite important to them so I think whatever the reality we're always going to live in a globalized world because actually we can't enjoy the standard of living we have unless we have open trading nations but you need to have that sense that people ultimately have control and very very quickly to the lady over there if I may yeah just say one thing the genius of Nigel Farage in 2016 was to take an issue that no one cared about Europe and and to link it to an issue that everyone cared about, immigration.

52:33And all of a sudden, that made people care about Europe. I think if we're doing it the other way around, the rejoined side have to latch Europe on to something that really matters. It might be the cost of living. It might be convincingly making the case that the cost of living problem is worse than it would be if we were in. But you've got to link Europe to something that is massively salient, that gets people interested and gets people engaged. Mortgages, maybe. there was a an interesting point I thought I'd just throw in but we should get three quick questions it was Dominic Cummings apparently has his slogan ready to go for the next tell them again which is not a bad slogan one lady here Amanda Bluejacket and lady in the back with the pink can I start?

53:23yes I'm sure the panel are aware of the difficulties for graduates in this country of getting the jobs that they studied so hard for, including young doctors. Do you really believe in restricting their chances of working in Europe, which is what has happened since that Brexit vote? OK, doctors. There's a man in the blue there. Yeah, just wondering, bearing in mind we're paying over£100 billion a year in debt repayments, and Erasmus apparently is going to cost us 500 million. I'm just wondering what the panel thinks, how much the EU would demand to allow us to rejoin and how much they would be prepared to pay to allow us to rejoin.

54:09And there was another question in the corner over here, the lady in the pink scarf. Shall we...

54:23Thank you.

54:24Marina Wheeler: I just find it really scary the language that is used about them and us and, you know, they're going to fleece us. You know, we're just humans and unless we move into a world where our narratives are about I am the same as you and you are the same as me, we are never going to solve the global problems that are going to come up and absolutely overwhelm us very shortly, which is the environment, which is flooding, which is weather changing, which is food shortages, water shortages, these issues that we are literally in denial about, we have to change the narrative. We cannot hold on to a sort of old colonial empire island mentality if we're going to survive.

55:09Marina Wheeler: So it would be really, I don't know, my question is, why can't we as a nation move our story into something that will not only help us but help everyone else too i'm quite excited about the prospect of having a colonial mentality what i would say is actually this isn't our problem i mean when i talked about them policing us this is just the way the european union has has approached negotiations with us a gentleman over there asked how much will it cost there was a story in the times the other day saying if we want to align with other sectors in the single market the european union has mentioned the figure of a billion pounds annually the european union will do what is best for its member states and its population and if that involves extracting money from us because they know that we're desperate to be closer to them that's what they'll do uh and you know this isn't i'm not saying this is a problem of our politics when we talked about the safe program earlier the the military procurement program.

56:13The reason why the British government that was desperate to be involved in this on the basis that our security interests are the same as theirs, the European Union came up with an initial bill of six billion euros. Well, it was an EU position. The French were pushing for it. Well, it was. The countries were very strongly against it. Excellent, the EU said it would cost you. Well, no, the fact of the matter is at the negotiation, the EU negotiator said 6 billion euros. So this is just a reality at the moment, which is the fact that, quite rightly, the European Union will get what it can get for our citizens.

56:51On the doctor's point, I mean, obviously there has been a significant impact because of us leaving freedom of movement. Equally obviously, one of the things that was weird about the referendum was we spent a lot of time talking about the EU citizens here, but not about the Brits who'd lose their lights over there. I mean, the one thing I would say about doctors is in an ideal world, I'd like the people we pay to train over here to stay here and not to go anywhere else, whether it's Europe or Australia or wherever.

57:23I'll give you the final word. Marina, do you want to come in and then I'll give the final word to Caroline.

57:28Marina Wheeler: Just this point, Arnand, I don't think it is OK and just accept that's the way the EU works. I mean, my big worry is, and it does pick up on the point, I know it wasn't necessarily aimed at me, but I think we do need to look at the people of Europe, the citizens, you know, who is all this meant to be for? And it just feels that, you know, we've been a bit forgotten. And as a punter, I think that I don't want, you know, this to be determined by what the EU thinks is in the EU institutions' interests. So we'll put pressure on the UK. I mean, you know, it's the people of Europe who will suffer. if we don't have come together for a defence collaboration.

58:12Marina Wheeler: You know, it really should be the focus, the people, not whether French industry is, you know, advantaged over British defence industry, etc. And I think that's a bit what I would like to move the conversation towards, which is going back to basics and finding what works for in the interests of the largest number of European citizens, those who are in the EU and those who are out of the EU and maybe who are in sort of candidate status. And from there, build something that is a bit more durable and that we won't be fighting about for another sort of 20, 30 years. Caroline, you've got the final word.

58:53Bring us home. Well, on the point of the doctors, I mean, the specific issue of doctors, we've already touched on, but I think your wider point really goes back to a point that I made a little bit facetiously at the very beginning, but that issue about what young people want and what older people want. And it does feel that it was completely wrong that a primarily older generation, which have benefited, frankly, from our membership of the EU, were then pulling up the ladder and preventing young people from having what they had enjoyed. And so I come back to saying that is another argument, I think, for at least testing this proposition with a new generation of young people who've come through, who in all of the evidence that we have are overwhelmingly likely to want to rejoin the EU.

59:33On the issue of whether or not the EU would fleece us, I think there's a big difference between the way they might treat individual piecemeal menu picking from us, which frankly isn't very much in their interests, and we are very much the demandeurs on that. I think that's different from how they would look at our rejoining. What I hear from my colleagues in the European Parliament and elsewhere is that actually there's a very big interest in the UK rejoining. They would like us to rejoin, both because some of the skills and some of the expertise, and because of our security industries certainly as well.

1:00:08But there was something that we brought to the EU. We made a big difference to the EU. You know, our diplomats were fantastic at the EU. And people recognised that that is a loss that they have lost too. It would also, it would have to be pragmatically said, that if we were to rejoin, it would send a very strong message to any other country that might have been thinking about leaving, that it's probably not a great idea if we're coming back to rejoin. So for all sorts of reasons, I don't think that it would be quite as dismal a negotiation as perhaps others do. But then the last point about the stories that we tell.

1:00:38I mean, this is lovely because it allows me to plug my book, which is very cheeky off me. But the book is called Another England, Time to Reclaim Our National Story. And it is all about the stories we tell ourselves. And if we tell ourselves that we are competitive, aggressive, out for ourselves, then that's how we will act. if we find the stories of England and beyond which are very different stories which are about collaboration and inclusiveness and progressive stories and about cooperation and the book is full of those stories then we can tell that different story but that story, having a story is so important and to bring it back to exactly where we are now who knows if Starmer is still Prime Minister but if he isn't, one of the reasons he isn't is because he never had a story, he never had a vision he never had an idea of where we were going and how we should come with us.

1:01:25So I think part of the new story has to involve rejoining the EU and I look forward to being out on the barricades with you.

1:01:41You've been listening to The Exchange from The New Statesman. This event was produced by Charleston Literary Festival, which is running until the 25th of May. You can find more information in the show notes. This podcast will be back next week.

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