A Shoe Company “Pivots to AI”… and the Stock Jumps 582% (Markets Are Cray-Cray)

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3:18We cut through the noise to focus on what works. Compounding, discipline, and the conviction to buy wonderful businesses and stick with them. Your path to financial freedom. Start now. And welcome back to Investing for Beginners, everybody. My name is Stephen Morris. He is Andrew Saylor sitting on the other side of me. And today, before we get into any topic, Andrew, we got some news to talk about. some big things happening in the stock market and with some big companies as well that I wanted to bring up. We're recording this on April 16th, so starting tomorrow, April 17th, Amazon is introducing a 3.5 % charge to the third-party distributors.

4:13Am I saying that right? Andrew? They're third-party sellers. Third-party sellers. Thank you. I knew that wasn't the right word. Anyway, so yeah, they're issuing 3.5 % of their third-party sellers. And obviously, that's going to bleed back onto all of us, even if you have Prime. And they're saying it is for fuel and rising logistical costs. And obviously we know that that that's a real thing. But I got to the reason I'm bringing it up, Andrews, I got tagged in a ton of videos about it and people are ticked about this 3.5%. And I'm really curious on your take on what Amazon's doing. i don't know like amazon doesn't have the best reputation with its third-party sellers you can argue the third-party sellers really helped them kind of put them on the map because how did amazon start amazon started as a bookseller and then they said okay we're gonna be the everything store but they couldn't carry everything in the entire world so what they do they partnered up with third-party sellers now you have a situation in I don't know how long this has been going on but there have been claims that they have competed directly against their third-party sellers so it's like oh you're selling this stapler I'm gonna sell Amazon stapler and totally undercut you and use all the data we have about you to completely take you out so it's like is that happening i don't know i don't know how much of it is like business drama and how much of it's really happening this whole thing does fall and feel like in my mind it falls under the whole just business drama people just want to they want to yell uh they want to yell just to be angry and that's what they're doing yeah i completely agree i i think i think they're just looking for something to be mad at for the most part um dude do i think i mean 3.5 percent is not that big a deal i think you did the math or looked it up a little bit ago and you said it was like 17 cents or something like that yeah per unit but of course that's going to be based on unit size weight all that stuff um so i mean that could get really expensive i guess but at the end of the day 3.5 isn't i don't i don't see it as corporate trying to get even richer than it already is um and is it do i think they're being fully honest about what why they're doing it probably not i mean you've been in business long enough you've been around businesses long enough you you know there's always some sort of spin making things sound as flowery as you can um so i mean i really don't think it's that big of a deal i think it's just uh i think i think it's just them trying to keep up stay competitive and i think that and what i wanted to talk about the main thing is you know one of the things that i guess kind of irritates me about at least the american consumer is we tend to forget that businesses need to make money and so if shipping and logistics costs are going up which we know they are then obviously they have to do something otherwise they're going to start losing money and i think that's something that a lot of at least american consumers i feel like miss a lot Have you tried shipping something lately, like straight up going to the post office and like shipping a package?

8:17Bro, I haven't been to the post office in like a decade. Well, and I think most most American consumers probably haven't either. But like I I've been there a few times lately. A, it's like more miserable than the airport.

8:36You know, it sucks when it's worse than TSA. there's like one person working there and there's like a line that just wrapped all the way around to the door. Um, and then the machine, like if you go to the self-serve kiosk and it literally, I don't know, like it would be quicker to download like 15 apps on your iPad than to use this thing to ship one package. I'm not, I am not exaggerating. Uh, the U S postal service could work on their tech a little bit. Um, But it's expensive. It's like I was shipping something to a buddy, and it wasn't very heavy, but it was a decent-sized package. I was using an Amazon box to ship it, which is kind of ironic.

9:24But I think it was$11 or$12 for the cheapest shipping. Because we get shipping from Amazon, and we just all assume, oh, this is free. this stuff costs money to move around the country I think we're so spoiled by Prime we've completely lost this disconnect between the real costs of things I agree completely and one of the videos I saw in particularly in particularly good grief that's embarrassing but i wish i had saved his name uh he he was uh talking specifically about the fact that amazon has primarily sent or transitioned to electric vehicles which that is true for like their their daily um delivery trucks i don't i don't know what their name or what name they gave them But yeah, like their normal, like daily, like we're used to seeing like the brown UPS trucks.

10:35But that's just a local. That's not shipping from Washington or LA or Atlanta or wherever, whatever hub it's coming from. And I don't know how many people pay attention, but if you look after you buy something, you can see where it will say where it's coming from. And that has to get to you some, you know, some way. In a lot of cases, that's a 24 to 48-hour turnaround. So that means it's either coming on an 18-wheeler that night or a plane, more than likely a plane, and those costs are skyrocketing too. So, I mean, it's not just about their electric vehicle fleet, which also has to be maintained, has to be charged.

11:24those prices are going up so i mean yeah i think three three point five percent is reasonable um and i am not i'm not happy about it of course but i'm not in the slightest well it's interesting you say that so um i was gonna save this for later but we might as well just jump in there are i know we did the episode on what's going on in the middle east bloomberg has these different KPIs they have on their homepage. One that I saw today, which I thought was interesting. They have global stocks, dollar index, 10-year yield, and then there's daily Hermu's ship transits. They're tracking this. They're tracking this.

12:13Right now, April 16th, this thing's been going on for a month. A little over, I think, yeah. Five. There's five daily ship transits, and it says change since the start of the war, minus 99 ships. So I'm doing the math on that. They used to do 104 ships per day through the strait. Today, April 16th, five. That's concerning. So to your point about like there's real costs, costs real real factors real things going on when i hear them say that this is a temporary thing i wonder if it's going to be longer than that and there was another article i saw from bloomberg um and this was written a while ago but basically why gas prices will stay high even after the war is over and they're talking about supply chain disruption and things like that we don't need a mba or to go really far back in history to remember what happened the last time a supply chain was disrupted if you look at what happened when the auto supply chain was disrupted a few years ago from the pandemic that had repercussions over several years and it hit different areas of the economy at different times i remember a shortage with semiconductor supply chain and then there was a shortage with the automakers and then you know you had insurance prices just go through the roof for for cars these ripple effects were just really in the early innings and um i don't know i mean i don't want to like laugh about it but sometimes you just can't help yourself um this stuff just we need to just start paying attention i i think i agree And education, I think, is the biggest thing, which, I mean, with that survey we did at the beginning of the year, one of the things we learned is how educated you IFB listeners are.

14:23And kudos to you guys. I love seeing that because education is truly the best form of power you can have, in my opinion. And it's a power that can never be taken away from you. so i mean i think just educating ourselves and not jumping the gun and rushing to social media and fear monger really because i mean by the time i got done watching all of those videos that got sent to me it was that's what i felt like i felt fearful and it's just it took me a second to to form together my thoughts around it and be like wait no this is this is standard sop it's nothing we haven't seen before and is it going to be permanent maybe but at the end of the day is it going to you know you you mentioned kim is going to be upset about it and katie will too um but is that going to stop them no probably not when i tell katie about it tonight is she going to be like ah screw it we're canceling prime no promise that's never gonna happen um so i mean it is what it is and and you know like you said you almost just kind of have to laugh about it and carry on about your day there are other companies doing far less things far far worse things which we could talk about next if we're done talking about Amazon yeah I just wanted to bring it up but it kind of like a yeah public service announcement I guess if you will just you know and let us know your thoughts in the comments guys if you if you all are upset about it let us know if you think if you think I'm wrong or Andrew's wrong let us know and we're happy to to hear what everybody's thoughts are.

16:22So yeah, sorry, Andrew. You're just a rational corporate shell is what you are, Steven. I am, I am. You're too rational. Now that springtime is here, it is time to update and reset my wardrobe. Last month, I talked to you guys about how I was getting my shipment from Quince in the mail. I got myself a three-pack of Lima Cotton shirts and they are quite easily my favorite shirts to wear right now. The material is soft but still airy, so I feel cool while I'm wearing it, but comfy at the same time. Looks great, looks premium, and the price was not what I expect to pay for that type of quality. What's cool about Quince is they make high quality everyday essentials with premium materials at great prices.

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20:25And then this is on Seeking Alpha. There was somebody from Renaissance Macro Research. He said, the company has no existing GPU inventory, no data center footprint, no engineering talent on record, and no customer pipeline disclosed at the time of yesterday's announcement. What it has, wrote Jeff DeGroff, analyst, is a press release, a new name, and a single day's worth of market enthusiasm. History has an opinion on that combination.

21:01Like, people say these things like AI has changed the market forever. You know, like we have just an entirely more advanced stock market. People are so much more sophisticated. They're still doing this. They've been doing this all the time. They did this with crypto. They did this with the dot-com bubble. It's probably just not a good sign for AI when something like this happens. There was a stock, I don't know, like when Square became Block, that was because blockchain and Web3 and crypto was really hot at the time. And people were changing their names to blockchain, and then same thing was happening.

21:45their stock just rocket ship it's just it's um no that that's so are they serious like i guess that's my first question like they're actually serious um i i have legality questions like how can they because they're publicly traded obviously you said so there has to be like man i don't know because i know like when when you form an llc for just the bare base bones example you form an llc you have to declare simply for taxes what it is you do and you know other things go into it like if you need insurance or whatever but and changing that on your LLC is not a simple task. Right. So, I mean, like it blows my mind that a company can just be like, you know what?

22:54I know we made shoes and I looked them up and now I know why I never heard of them because they ugly.

23:04But I mean, we made ugly shoes and now we're just gonna be AI. Like how I've heard of pivots, but I feel like that's a bit of an extreme. And like, I don't know, it kind of takes me off too. Because it sounds like to me, and I know nothing about this company, I know nothing about their management, but just outside looking and hearing that story, that article you just quoted, like they're just simply trying to take advantage of a market situation right now to make profit. Yeah. It is sickening. This is a very small company, so the market cap's not even$150 million. So we're not talking about a huge amount of money.

23:56This isn't the same as NVIDIA going up and there's billions of dollars. NVIDIA is starting to make shoes.

24:07This is... I guess what I'm trying to say is like there's not that much money in this. It was such a small company that, you know, there's hope for humanity, I guess. But at the same time, like there's this much speculative, ridiculous money that's still frothing around. Like what I don't understand is who can hear that? Like who on Wall Street hears that and is like, oh, that's that's a deal. Like that's solid. Let's jump on this. like why I don't I don't know it's like uh have you ever seen Iron Man I can't remember the name of the character but it's a blonde and a news reporter lady from um Brown and Brown University and uh Tony says Tony says to her uh the day of my weapons are no longer needed i promise we'll start making bricks and bottles for babies and that's kind of the obviously that was straight sarcasm from his why he was saying in the movie but that that's literally what they're doing is they're going from one extreme to the other and in the movie he made that statement just to show you how ridiculous it is and then here we have it in real life i think that's parody at its finest in my opinion it really is and i don't know if there's a valuable takeaway other than the market's still cray cray i mean you know like we always say do your research don't don't buy the hype don't don't always you know sometimes the media is right a lot of times the media is wrong sometimes the annual analysts are right i guess a lot of times they're wrong so just do your own research and have an intelligent opinion about what what what's happening i think is the takeaway yeah we'll see we'll see where they are in five years if so are Are you going to buy some stock?

26:30I mean, it does have a cool ticker. It's BIRD, B-I-R-D. If I put one in there just to look at it in my portfolio. Just collect all the cool tickers and just put those in the portfolio. That's a really good idea. Yeah, it'll probably outperform too. That's the way things work. I think that's a cool idea. and then the other the other news piece that you brought up before we started recording that i think i have very strong feelings about is uh i guess the sec is doing away with day trading limits on margin accounts yeah so can you break this down like break down what what was the rule previously because i'm i'm not familiar with this it's actually kind of confusing so you have you have three trades you can make in five days so basically if i made a trade on a day and a day trade is anything within 24 hours of buying a stock um so if i buy we'll say i buy nike at you know 10 o 'clock in the morning on monday morning and then monday afternoon at 3 p.m i trade nike the the the same share i bought that is a day trade so now my my account would go down to two across the board so i only have two day trades left i can make in that five days days and then I don't make another day trade until Wednesday so then after that day trade my count would go down to one in five days and then I do the same thing on Friday so then at the end of the week my day trade count four or five days would be zero but each one of those day trades has its own timer so my Monday trade I'll be able to make another day trade on Monday again my wednesday trade i'll be able to make on wednesday again and my friday i'll be able to make on friday again what if you did you bought on monday and then you waited the 24 hours and sold on tuesday would that not count against that's fine okay so what's the intent of what used to be in place we have the inside scoop on something that's absolutely taken over the internet by storm Live shopping on Whatnot is exploding.

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30:26It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate C. According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs have four times more applicants than non-sponsored jobs. So go build your dream team today with Indeed. Get a$75 sponsored job credit at Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. So the intent, so I guess, so there are two different types of accounts you can have. You can have a cash account or a margin account. a cash account obviously is just an account where you fund it from your bank account or card or whatever um a margin account so margin is a fancy word for borrowed money it's a loan um and typically uh the so if you're on a margin day trade account your buying power will be forex so if you have a hundred dollars it'll say um you have four hundred dollars pretty much right so yeah um i'm to be honest after we started talking about it before we started recording i like i know a lot of day traders use margin i don't fully understand what their benefit from doing so is um i've never personally done it and the other the other big thing like that that daily counter goes away on your margin account once your account hits 25 000 so if your account hits 25 000 or 25 000 and one dollar you can make as many day trades as you want the second your account drops below 25 ,000 those three trades come back into play again so you have to maintain at least 25 ,001 dollars in your margin account in order to day trade that way um and so basically the the simple math of it is if you um had 30 ,000 dollars and you used your forex margin to buy 120 ,000 dollars of amazon stock but then that stock fell 10 now you owe your brokerage account twelve thousand dollars it's a forex and obviously you don't have to like you don't have to use all your margin but it's just what they offer um so yeah apparently the sec is taking that away and i don't know why.

33:11I never had a problem with that rule. I always thought it was a smart rule because let's be honest, people get kind of cray cray whenever they think they have the next big idea. And I don't know, I hope people are smart to not try to think, oh, I can put$1 ,000 in a brokerage and have access to four or five grand. And now all of a sudden you're owing, you know, you're getting into massive amounts of debt to your brokerage. I just, I see it going horribly wrong and I don't understand why. But I think you said like a lot of the brokerage apps are going, their stock's going through the roof because of this announcement as well.

34:02Yeah. it's like uh let's let kids under 18 buy cigarettes you know why not if we're gonna do this why don't we take it another step uh and then 21 now for cigarettes is it okay i don't know i could totally be wrong but i know vape is 21 okay but uh i don't know anyway it doesn't matter um but yeah i think i agree completely it's i would i would say it'd be like taking a 10 year old into a casino and say go have fun yeah because like we all we all if we're honest with ourselves we've all thought about day trading dabbled in it like that's just part of you want to know what the stock market is you know like okay let me see if i can figure this out and if you're just gonna let people I don't know you know the you know you know the influencer that just if I could choke slam one type of an influencer in this world it would be the day traders yeah because they I watch their videos and it's like the day in the life of me as a day trader and he gets up at like eight o 'clock in the morning and goes to the gym and eats breakfast and he's in like this plush Manhattan apartment on like the the 20th floor overlooking um not Times Square uh what's the park um Central Park and like it's just it's like super nice and his computer setup is crazy wicked and he sits down for like two hours day trades and then goes to the gym and then like and it's like that's not the life of a day trader like uh there there's a guy named ross ross i can't remember his last name if you if you type in ross day trading in youtube he'll come up and he he live streams his day trading a lot and he's very very successful and he will be the first to tell you like those dudes are straight clowns like that is not his life his life is stressful it is hard he has to be disciplined his computer setup looks nothing like theirs because his stuff is a mess because like he's just constantly like shuffling through stuff trying to to keep track of everything like and he's got a really good system he does a really good job the guy makes millions but it's just like that's why that's that's why everybody thinks of it as just such a sexy job or career or whatever because they they see this this this flashy thing and i i don't know the statistics but i would say the people like the the guy i'm talking about ross i wish i could remember his last name.

37:04The reason or the people like him that actually make millions doing what they're doing day trading, like they're like less, they're like the NFL, less than 1%. Yeah, they have some sort of, they have to have some sort of inside edge, whether it's intellectual information, whatever it is. It's pattern. They have, they have a super above average ability at pattern recognition. yeah and obviously they they need other forms of of intellect slash iq but um i i in my opinion the biggest edge that they those guys have is their pattern recognition is just insane and they're able to spot trends in the in the charts almost instantly Yeah, it's funny.

37:56I'm on this Forbes article and they're talking about this, like why this day trading rule was started. And they actually called it the pattern day trader rule. And it was from the early 2000s when regulators were worried small investors were taking excessive risks by buying and selling stocks with borrowed money. so you know it's not like we're out here wanting to be the the fun police and say hey you know like you guys should not try to have fun and make money it's uh at the times when day trading is most popular is when you have the most casual people who are checking out the stock market for the first time and why would you go back to a place that loses you so much money so quickly you just say you know what the stock market's not for me and to quote myself on a previous podcast that's tragic that's tragic i'm telling you that that's going to be ifb merch store that's tragic t-shirts coming soon um no it is and well one thing that i didn't bring up about about day trading is here's the trick around that three-day rule you open a cash account that three-day rule does not apply to your cash account so if you're funding it with your own twenty thousand dollars you can day trade as much as you want the sec doesn't care because you're not going into debt to do it right um so if you want to dabble in day trading go do it i encourage it i think it's fun but don't do it with margin i i have personally never used margin um and i don't see i don't see why you would unless you're one of these guys that are pushing millions of dollars of trade and i'm sure they have a reason i just don't know what it is yeah because i've never i've never been there so i didn't need to know i couldn't imagine how how like losing money sucks anyway when you're day trading like i couldn't imagine losing money that wasn't mine yeah like that would really suck so yeah man it's i i this is the one thing we've talked about today that like i'm actually upset about the the the bird stock whatever that's dumb all right the the amazon thing whatever they're just a business doing what businesses do trying to make money but this like this i feel like could actually hurt people yeah yeah it probably will markets are cray cray markets are cray cray come on i mean what what's your big takeaway from today you really didn't cover anything other than the news but But I mean, if you're a beginner listener and you heard all this ranting we just went on, they're like, oh, my God, what just hit me?

41:11What do you want them to hear from all this? I guess you could take away a lot. I would say with the Amazon thing, focus on the business fundamentals and the long term. Don't focus on social media. I would say if you're investing, don't put your head in the sand. there's real events happening right now that are affecting markets. And then I would quote Charlie Munger, which I can't remember if I've told you this quote or not before. If you want to lose your wealth, there's three ways to do it. Ladies, leverage and liquor. So yeah, don't trade on margin.

41:51Gotta love Charlie Munger. No, I've never heard that before, but that's that's hilarious. Um, fair enough. Uh, yeah, I agree. Um, don't put your hand, head in the sand. Um, you got, and I, I know that's kind of counter what we normally say, because, because on this podcast a lot, we're like, I don't care what, what the news is. It doesn't matter. These are the numbers. This is, this is the, this is what the company says. Um, this is what they're doing. And so a lot of times we tend to like brush off the news and i think this i think this was really hopeful especially for me um to as a reminder like hey the news really does matter sometimes yeah sometimes like don't get all wrapped up in every single story you hear but pay attention to the ones that do matter so that you know what's going on and you're not blindsided because if this is some sort of corrupt corporate boondoggle that we got going on in Amazon, then this will be the start of it.

43:06And if we pay attention, we'll hopefully see it coming. I'm not saying that is not what's happening at Amazon, but if it were. And so, yeah, I agree totally. So let us know in the comments what you guys think. Let us know what you think about day trading on margin. Do you think it's dangerous? Do you think I'm overreacting? I might be. I don't know. But I definitely don't feel good, warm, and fuzzy about it. Amazon, couldn't care less. And Bird, they're just stupid. But let us know what you think. Birds are stupid. Birds are stupid. They fly in the windows all the time. Let us know what you guys think.

43:47in the comments. We really love hearing from you. And we'll see you next time. But in the meantime, never, ever, ever forget, invest with a margin of safety. Emphasis on the safety. Peace.

44:04You've been listening to the Investing for Beginners podcast. All show notes can be found on our website at einvestingforbeginners.com. To master the basics of stocks in seven days, sign up for our free email series at einvestingforbeginners.com slash newsletter. Until next time, have a wonderful day. The information contained is for general information and educational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for legal, commercial, and or financial advice from a licensed professional. The hosts may own positions in the securities discussed. Review our full disclaimer at einvestingforbeginners.com.

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