AAR58 - Money Debates - Snowball vs. Avalanche and Other Fights

25:06Evan:I will say that's probably the best argument I've heard for a lease, like to lease a vehicle. Never heard it presented in that exact way. So I think you presented it very fairly that there are some real drawbacks, but there's also some real life benefits. But you know me too well. Yeah, I don't even need to hear you say it. I don't know. We can move on from Andrew because we already know what he's going to say. But for me, honestly, I've been flip-flopping a little bit, potentially. I don't know where I'm going to land on this. I haven't made anywhere close to a final decision. I don't plan to get rid of my car for at least two or three years from now, which would mean I would have had the car for long enough.

25:53The buying would have made it cheaper than leasing and everything. So it's kind of a mixed bag of where I'd end up on it. But I was definitely surprised when I started doing that math and I double-checked it in multiple places so I wasn't just screwing it up or whatever. But I was pretty surprised that the math worked out that way because I think there are a lot of people out there that, myself included, I mean, I think everybody wants to, but obviously it's whether it's financially feasible for you or not. but it's definitely a very nice idea to drive a car for a few years and be able to trade it in for some you know new model just periodically um especially if during that time frame it's not going to be any more expensive than if you bought the car um the biggest problem that i probably have is the mileage limit not because i'm always driving over it but i think that that in the back of my mind would always be like oh you know we should probably just go take jen's car because i've got that mileage limit or whatever and the second i start doing that then it's like okay well why are we doing this lease for a new car if you're not even going to use it that way um so i feel pretty confident that that that mental tick would be in the back of my head all the time that would probably make me lean away from it um but it's definitely something i've been

27:01Evan:considering i can see the upsides for it yeah i've heard of people who like lease and then they buy after and that actually being like a pretty decent option for them yeah i don't know much about how maybe some of the listeners could let us know I'm not very privy to how the math works out like do you literally does the math work out fairly for the buyer I guess is what I'm trying to say or is it set up to kind of give you know additional profit to the dealership or something that then makes it not as great of a deal for the buyer I'd just be curious to see what parameters feed into that math you know yeah I know they did mention that the payments they made toward the lease went towards the purchase.

27:48Evan:So there is some of that element of like, hey, I didn't waste all the cool rant I was paying. But we all know Mr. Car Dealer needs to eat. So I wonder where he's getting this food. I just can't trust car dealerships. I really can't. I mean, of all the things in the world, I just can't trust car dealerships, to give you fair math. That's what I love about Teslas. Like they just said, we everybody hates car dealers screw it i know and i really like that some people are following them i mean not any of the legacy automakers yet but like some of the other new ev companies and everything they do the same thing and i love that i mean when i when i bought my car because for anybody that doesn't know i did uh purchase my car back in 2023 and i'm actually gonna be paying it off um later this year like november or something like that but when i bought my car i just i'm pretty sure i bought it literally on my phone because i did it through the app because i I just thought the app's a little bit easier.

28:45Literally bought the car on my phone. Price is what it was. There was no, you know, haggling or, hey, you want to tack this on or whatever? It was just, hey, here's the price, you know, link over your lender or whatever, you know, figure out your rate and stuff. And boom, just click buy and you're through the process. Then you go pick it up at a dealership when it arrives and that's it. Like the easiest process in the world. And again, no haggling, no, oh, well, you know, that's the sticker price. But actually it's this, you know, when we add fees or, oh, we could give you this special deal. it'll take off you know a thousand bucks or so none none of that crap that makes me when we i still remember when we uh when we got when my parents got my car for me like it was like right before college was it or early college or something like that um that process was absolutely horrible it was a volkswagen it was vw golf and that dealership we were there for like two hours of them just being like, Hey, we could tack this on, we could tack this on calling managers over.

29:44Okay. Well, I'll be back in a little bit. Okay. Well, actually it'll be this. Oh, you know, I told you it'd be this earlier, but I'm seeing something here that it might change. I'll be back in a little bit. Okay. Let me get a manager over. And like, it was, it was a crazy, my mom and I were literally crying at some points because it was exhausting and they just kept like jerking us back and forth. It was horrible. It was horrible. I'm never going back to that dealership.

30:06Evan:Sorry. I don't mean to laugh so hard at your trauma. I know you heard I cried and he instantly laughed. That's just kind of a reaction for him. Do you know which EVs are following that path? I know that Rivian and Lucid definitely are. I think Polestar might too, but now they're probably still going through their Volvo dealerships and everything, but it's at least Lucid and Rivian are completely online like that and just set prices and stuff. All right, this next one, I think we already know where we're going to land on this, but we don't know the kind of path that we're going to take to get there.

30:49So this debate is going to be individual stocks versus ETFs or funds or mutual funds, those kind of combined stock purchases. But do you want to start off, Andrew? Sure.

31:02Evan:Well, just to give context, if you're new to the show, I am an individual stock picker. Two-thirds of our show is about individual stock picking. Evan is the more chill, automated, does ETFs, and doesn't have to stress one second about individual stocks. It's going to be kind of weird. I'm going to be talking about a lot of the reasons why individual stocks don't work for people, and this is something we've said a lot. But it's really, really hard to beat the market. and one of the ways that really opened my eyes to this besides beating the market for a while and then not beating the market and just completely being humbled because i was like i was like that kid who like knows it all right and i was like oh the market's easy and then as soon as you say that it's like the market now comes after you and you just naturally make make those mistakes and you you've ever heard of the way averages work in capitalism is kind of depressing.

32:09Evan:Like if you take the averages of human height, if the average is 5 '9 across the world, you might get some people who are 7' foot, you might get some people who are 3 or 4, but the averages are pretty close to 5 '9. And you get this nice bell distribution curve. You didn't know you'd be going to college today, so here you go. I'm back. I'm back in it. In capitalism, one of the beauties and one of the downfalls of it is you get these positive skew events. You get trillionaires and billionaires. And so when you look at what's the average net worth of Americans or what's the average income, the reason why everybody says median income is because you got these absolute insane results that are skewing the average so high.

33:02Because if you were to take Bill Gates and you put five random people, the five people might have a median income of around$100 ,000 or whatever it is.

33:11Evan:Bill Gates takes the average to millions. And so it's like, well, that's not representative. His billions skewed the average higher. And what's very depressing is if you look at how stock returns are over a long time period, the exact same thing happens. Not to the extreme of like a Bill Gates versus five people, but it's enough where statistically, mathematically, it makes a difference. And so what you are doing essentially is saying that if I'm going to pick stocks, I'm going to be so good that I'm going to pick so many winners that I'm going to be able to make up for this positive skew disadvantage that I have.

33:53Evan:or I'm going to be able to find one of these huge winners that completely carries my portfolio and raises the average of everything else. So that was one of the humbling lessons I had about how the stock market works is I thought, yeah, I could probably get 50 % right and that won't be hard. That's like a coin flip, right? And it's actually harder than a coin flip because of positive skew. So that's one of the reasons why you stay away from individual stocks. But then one of the benefits, well, several of the benefits, you can definitely build more wealth by trying to pick individual stocks. There's been people, track records of people who have done, I think Buffett did like 20 % annualized over 60 years or whatever it was.

34:42Evan:Crazy. He turned a small chunk of, well, it was a decent chunk of fortune into one of the greatest fortunes that we've ever seen. There's been other people who've returned like 17, 18. If you're interested in that, I would go back to some of the episodes we've done on super investors. I'll look that up. Maybe we can link to it at the end for the exact number. But those super investors have had track records that you can look and it's public and you can see. And oh, by the way, they all kind of study that the same school, I put that in quotes, of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Benjamin Graham.

35:21Evan:So there's a tried and true method to individual stock picking. I would say the other thing too is it's a very engaging hobby for a lot of people. And going back to the idea of buying versus leasing a car, not everything that you do financially needs to be financially optimal. So there's a lot of range of ways that you can invest and do the stock market. You can put, depending on your risk tolerance, you can put a majority of your money in index funds, ETFs, and maybe only 5 % in individual stocks. I've heard of people talking about that before. You could do like a 50-50 split. You can do all sorts of things.

36:09Evan:And even though, yes, there's a lot of, I'm going to start to rebut your arguments before you even make them. Even though there's a lot of track records of people who don't beat the market. There's so many investors that we probably don't even hear about that actually do really, really well. But because they're managing small sums of money, we never hear their stories. So you can't let the crabs in the bucket pull you down if this is something you are determined to do. I would say most people should not pick individual stocks. But I would say there's enough people out there who believe in themselves and believe in the process, for lack of a better way to describe it, that don't let negative opinions dissuade you.

36:57Evan:If you're all in on it, go all in on it. And even though my results personally haven't been optimal and hope springs eternal, like the returns will get better as I get better kind of an idea, it's definitely been a worthwhile experience for myself and a lot of people out there. If you can find friends, community of people who like to pick stocks, it's another great way to just enjoy life. And then if you're a book nerd like me and you like reading hundreds of pages of financial reports, if you love digging into spreadsheets, all that stuff is super fun, super fascinating. And I'll definitely pick some great winners.

37:45Evan:I don't want to... Maybe I'll save it for a future episode. I can humble brag on some of the stocks in my portfolio, but it feels good. It feels good when you finally get a stock that has its day in the sun and you're like, I picked that.

38:04Evan:You got to pat yourself on the back because nobody else will do it. That's the other thing I've learned. Literally nobody cares that you pick stocks and I pick stocks. So I have to pat myself on the back. Are you going to let me do that? I'll let you do that. On AR, you can do that. I'm not going to tell what you can do on the main show because Stephen might disagree. But here you can. Yeah, yeah. I think those are very good arguments. And something I would actually really quick say in favor of stock picking is...

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39:28Like you said, it's not for everybody, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't have value. It's just like getting really good at anything, really good at a sport, really good at any other skill out there. it's not necessarily made for everybody not everybody is going to be apt to pick that up very easily or be successful at it very easily but that doesn't mean that for a lot of people it isn't a very enjoyable process and they don't learn a lot and it's not you know successful for them in the end um just because it doesn't apply to everybody doesn't mean that it isn't worthwhile um but in favor of stuff like etfs and funds uh i know andrew kind of touched on a bit but it's it's really much more of a lifestyle choice than necessarily a financial choice.

40:15It definitely definitely has some financial upsides, which I'll mention. The upsides that I really see lifestyle for ETFs and funds is just the time and effort and stress impact of it all. Kind of similar to what we talked about with snowball versus avalanche debt payoff is that the mental and time aspect of investing in a fund. For those who don't know, a fund is basically a single stock that groups together a bunch of other stocks into one single stock that you can purchase. And so that way, instead of having to go buy, you know, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and then a hundred other companies individually, you can just simply buy a fund that includes all maybe tech companies or all of the top 500 companies in the stock market or something like that.

41:01And all you do is buy that one single stock that is a fund and it just tracks everything else. And an ETF is just an exchange traded fund. So it's a fund you can purchase on the stock exchange. The fantastic thing about this is basically diversification. So instead of having to go around purchasing a bunch of different stocks all at once and trying to balance your portfolio properly, and they're all going to be different price per share on each stock and everything. Instead, you can just invest in a fund and that automatically gets easily distributed and managed for you. The other upside to this is that especially for funds that track and index.

41:39So for example, the fund that I love to invest in is VOO, just because it does its best to track the S &P 500 as a whole. So it will track, it'll combine the top 500 companies in the stock market. And so that means if one company falls out of the top 500, then it's just going to get replaced by another one and the fund won't be drastically affected. Whereas if I was trying to invest in individual stocks and I was invested in that individual stock that now tanked, now part of my portfolio is going to tank because of that change. I'll feel it much more and it's not just going to easily be replaced by something else.

42:16So a lot of the management is happening on the back end. You've got much more of a safety net for yourself. Not to mention that that whole process of stock picking, though very rewarding for a ton of people, also does take a ton of time. It takes a long time to read a 10k it takes a long time to do research on a company run the math on things even just running stock screeners up front there's there's a lot of time and effort invested to get to the point of actually hitting buy on an individual stock but there's practically zero time put into the hitting the buy button for an etf to the point that i just have my etf purchases completely automated every single week on friday or monday i'm pretty sure it's friday but every single week it purchases a VOO for a set amount of money.

43:01And now all this happens in the background. I never think about it, never put any effort into it. Not to mention that the stress of what happens to my portfolio is a lot less. So like I was mentioning, instead of worrying about, oh, is that one stock that I picked that I kind of felt like was a risk, what's going to happen with that? I need to keep checking on it because I need to keep an eye out for signs that it might dip if I want to back out or just be ready to weather the storm if it does dip down, whatever it might be. With an ETF, it's going to move up and down, absolutely, just because the economy moves up and down, the stock market as a whole moves up and down, but it's not going to be as sudden or drastic on average.

43:40Especially, an individual company could go all the way to zero. Theoretically, a company could go bankrupt and it goes all the way down. The only way for your ETF to go all the way down, if you're investing in the overall market, is for the entire US economy to go all the way down. And if that's happening, then we have a lot of other problems aside from what's happening with your stock portfolio. So I like the safety aspect of it, the time aspect of it. Not to mention that it does outperform a lot of investors. Definitely not all investors by any means, but there are a lot of investors out there that spend a lot of time towards individual stocks that don't usually see returns on average that outperform the whole market.

44:19And so that means me setting up an automation in my brokerage account is earning me more money than somebody who's putting hours or dozens of hours a week into handling their individual stock portfolio. So not only for me, but I would strongly say for the vast majority of people that ETFs and funds are the better way to go on average to earn you more money. And they will guaranteed save you a ton of time and a ton of effort and a ton of stress to get there. I what do they say in a debate I rest my case is it rest my case no it's not I was never actually never

44:58Evan:I never took a debate class I didn't either but I feel like they'd say like I yield my time or am I thinking of like the senate they say I yield my time like I give if I had two minutes left I give back the rest of my two minutes you're so kind I thought I came in thinking I was the nicest guy in the room but man not possible

45:27Evan:I feel like that sums it up pretty well it's a very individual choice so you kind of swing one way or the other it amazes me how much I don't know if this has calmed down or not but you go on the investing subreddit or like Bogleheads Forum, people are like, we're talking about a very passionate debate. Almost like, okay, make your choice and then move on. Why are we continuing to hash over this same argument with the same, I don't know, it's just kind of wild to me. Yeah. Some arguments are kind of settled and as long as people are aware of them, people probably already choose a side and they're just kind of there.

46:18Evan:Yeah, well, stock pickers like me, it's like an existential crisis if you tell us that we're not valuable or creating value. Right, right. I mean, I invested my whole career. Anyway, I did look up the episode we did because we talked about super investors a lot, so I was really diving into our archives. But I would say a great one to start with is what invests with a margin of safety really means. And we intro that episode right away talking about Benjamin Graham and the super investors. And if you want to follow down the path of people who have done stock picking really, really well, this is how you do it.

46:57Evan:And these are the exact people who you can go look up and see their returns and do all of that. So what invests with a margin of safety really means, go check out that episode if you want to start stock picking. Beautiful. Sounds great. so the next one uh is going to be buy versus rent so specifically we're going to kind of narrow this down because i guess it could could apply to a lot of stuff like a boat for example we're going to narrow this down to uh to a house or an apartment or a condo or some kind of uh some kind of housing which side of this do you want to take so we're gonna we're gonna end this on a bang right uh we could do a part two one day actually yeah there's a lot of this was fun I'll take the rent unless you're feeling really passionate about presenting that side.

47:43Evan:No, that's good with me. Beautiful. So to start it off on buy, again, little bias here potentially because we did purchase a home back in August of last year. So this is a very recent process for me. But the good news is that makes me very aware of the whole process and how it all really works out. So first thing I will say for buying, and it's not going to be necessarily an advantage is it is a a lot of effort it's a lot of effort ahead of time to to look at places to hunt things down to do the math on what you can afford um to to compare different places not not to mention just the whole lender process and all the paperwork that has to be signed ahead of time the home inspections i mean there's there is an incredible incredible amount of work that goes into buying a home um and i don't think that can be discounted and i I don't think it's talked about enough because again, we focus a lot on the mental aspect of things that affects a lot of our life.

48:39And, um, and if your mental isn't in the right place and you're just not going to make the right decisions at the end of the day, anyways, uh, mathematically though, I would say that buying still has a big advantage, even in today's market where homes are historically unaffordable compared to where they've been previously. I would still say that they have a big, big advantage if you have the financial situation to be able to afford to get into it. There's no getting around the fact that it would really be best if you put down some kind of a down payment. I know there's opportunities out there like military opportunities.

49:13I believe there's some others where you can put zero or near 0 % down. I would kind of lean away from that. I think that that skyrockets your payment just too much for it to be worthwhile. while but if you're able to put down some kind of a significant down payment and you're able to save up some kind of emergency fund padding for yourself because that becomes incredibly important when you own the home and you're responsible for anything that that occurs afterwards that has to be paid for if you're able to get into that kind of a financial situation have that kind of stability then i think the ongoing financial aspect of it has huge huge advantages you can either save quite a lot of money, even when you include maintenance and you include

49:56property taxes and insurance. Even when you include everything, you can still save a lot of money monthly or for about the same price as an equally expensive apartment on a monthly basis. You can get a much larger place and you can own it and you can customize it and make it your own and have your own space and your own dwelling. I think that the that the long-term mental aspect of that has a lot of advantages. And I would say that us anecdotally, as well as any of other people we've talked to, you find a lot more sort of personal and life piece in a house than you do in an apartment. And again, that's anecdotal that won't apply to everybody, but I think that you, you and your life feel much more settled in than you, than you do if you're renting anywhere.

50:44Cause you know, at any point they could you know kick you out for some reason they could close down the place they could sell it whatever it's all just out of your control but when you own a home so much more is in your control that you feel like you're kind of living your own life instead of following along on somebody else's and that's all not to mention that in the long term buying a home can be a fantastic way to leapfrog your way through the rest of your life it can be a fantastic sort of financial springboard that's difficult to build up front or difficult to get up front, but once you have it can be incredibly powerful.

51:18Not only does the equity that you're putting in the home build up and then compound because of hopefully the value of the home and the land going up over time, but in addition, you can in the future rent that out and maybe move somewhere else or you can sell that home and use that to immediately springboard yourself into another place or another home in the future and sort of use that compounding that you've gotten along the way to again springboard yourself into that next place for me it's a it's a it's a huge tool to compound your wealth in a whole new way over the long run that you just don't have access to otherwise um and this is all definitely caveated with again the kind of lifestyle you want to live if you want to uh jump around and have the freedom to you know live wherever you want and do whatever you want and just kind of live that completely free life then by all means go for it but i would say, and this might be a hot take for the most, for most people out there, that is not the kind of life that they want to live.

52:12That is, that's just the way I see it. You can disagree with me. That's completely fine. Um, but I think that we, that we tout the freedom to, to like, again, live wherever we want to want, do whatever we want on a, on a whim out of nowhere. We tout that as a, a big thing we want to be able to do. And I, and I completely understand it, but I just don't think that it's true for most people i think most people find comfort in in consistency in being content in um being comfortable where you are and that's where people find a lot of happiness in life over just flying you know jet setting around like we kind of assume we would find the most happiness in and i think a home and buying a home owning a home is is a is a much better uh place to get to that kind of content in your life than uh than renting but how about your side andrew

53:05Evan:all right i gotta i gotta go full full character here so i'm gonna slide in with a sledgehammer i'm gonna bust some windows through and i'm gonna come in with electric guitar hold on i have to pay for those windows if you see well there there's the first i i just demonstrated why renting is better than owning because someone could come in and you could come back and smash my windows and hey that's fine so owning a home is really expensive there's a lot of maintenance that can go into it and there's a lot that can go wrong so it's like yeah you know your washing machine can a tube can snap and then you could have all the water draining you have no idea and then you wake up there's two or three inches on the ground and then I don't know if people have seen how much it costs to get water out so you don't have mold, it's super expensive.

53:59Evan:And homeowners insurance doesn't always cover it. That's another topic. If you're in places like Florida with hurricanes, storms, if you're in California with wildfires, to kind of make it a little bit more serious, there's a lot of inefficiencies in homeowner insurance and a lot of people are not being covered because insurers are deeming these natural disasters as too risky, which creates a lot of opportunity for the next wave of startups and insurer tech companies. But that's a whole other conversation. But yeah, it can be tough. You might not get home coverage insurance. You might, like some of the tragedies that have happened, you might have something happen to your home that's completely out of the blue that you would think would be covered by homeowners insurance and then is not.

54:53Evan:So there's a lot that can go wrong. I would say the other thing is, depending on what stage in life you're in, buying a home is not the best. People have talked about buying a home with roommates or buying a home when you're not in a super serious relationship. Disaster, like financial disaster. And then there's calculators. You can go online and you can look at how long do I need to hold a home in order to break even because you have closing costs. You have moving costs. If you're relocating, there's relocation costs. All these things that are baked in that you don't always know when you're first buying.

55:34Evan:And so that makes renting better. And then you can move a lot easier. You kind of mentioned that already, but having a place where you're just there for a year and then you can get out of there is a lot more freedom and flexibility than buying somewhere. And then if you don't like the neighborhood or you don't like the area or you lose your job, whatever it is, now you're taking a loss on a home. And that's not just boogeyman ideas. We've seen that in recent years where after the pandemic, home prices absolutely skyrocketed and they've since plateaued and in some areas have come down. And so people who have bought during the mania and then had to sell for whatever reason are now losing money financially on those things.

56:25Evan:So that's, that's the argument. However, I, I, I think if you can afford it, my take is you got to do the home. Like you got to buy at some point. Like it just makes all the sense in the world. Yeah. Something, something I kind of want to add to, uh, to bashing on renting. Well, I definitely agree with all that. All that is true. I'm not, I'm not disagreeing with any of that. Something I just want to kind of add is that you, if you're renting somewhere, you're still paying all of the insurance costs. you're still paying. If something goes wrong, they need an emergency fund to cover that. When you rent, they're not basically saying, hey, you just pay whatever the place costs, and if something happens, that's on me.

57:10That's not really what they're saying. They're saying, hey, pay me what it costs to live there and pay me some extra to cover the insurance and pay me some extra so I can build up a savings so that if your window breaks, I can cover it and build me up some savings. So if a storm comes through and does some damage, I can repair it. They're making you pay for all of that, even if it's not itemized for you. And I think that getting a home just itemizes all those costs for you because you're paying it now directly, but that money is still coming from you initially. Not to mention, of course, it's also going to be noticeably less per person because if you're splitting a single structure into multiple pieces to fit multiple families into or whatever, then yes, even if it was itemized, the payment would probably still be lower per person, but you're still paying into all of that, no matter what.

57:59It's definitely not as scary of a process, and again, it's definitely going to be cheaper, but that money is still coming from you, no matter what.

58:07Evan:That's a good point. Yeah, I didn't think of that. They were just baking it into the price, and you don't even realize it. Yeah, yeah. You want to hear something embarrassing? Yes, 100%. Well, when I first got into personal finance and stuff, this was like 2014. You know, the internet just wasn't that educated. So I'm going to put it on the internet. Yeah. Tumblr was still around. I mean, come on. Right. You can only hope so much. Yeah. I ran a spreadsheet of the cost to rent versus the cost to own. And I was like, the numbers are just screaming that renting is better. Look at how long you have to wait to pay it off.

58:50Evan:You're only paying interest. You're not paying principal. I didn't include the home going up in price in my spreadsheet. Like the biggest reason why people buy out, like the equity increasing. Cause I was like, well, look at your equity. It doesn't move because you're just paying on interest. Right, right, right, right. Bro. Fantastic. And now he's a world-class investor. I mean, everybody starts from somewhere, people. Okay. Some people, some people can't, can't throw a spiral on a football initially. and then they end up in the NFL. So you never know. They're two different skill sets. You don't have to be good at your personal finances to be a good investor.

59:32You probably should be, but you don't have to be.

59:35Evan:Don't have to be. Don't have to be. Yeah, that is embarrassing. I'll say that.

59:44We'll go ahead and we'll close off today with that incredibly embarrassing story by Andrew. but do you want to shout out that Super Investors episode one more time just in case they missed it in the meat of the episode yep yep so

59:58Evan:what invests with a margin of safety really means we released it June 4th so pretty recently great way to get started on why I pick stocks the way I do and why Steven's been falling down that path and and why it has worked historically perfection beautiful I appreciate Andrew We've actually still got a good number more topics here. So we'll definitely do a part two follow up to this episode. So let us know what you think or if you have any other topics that you want us to add to the queue for this. But as always, feel free to comment below or email us if you have any questions or any other suggestions.

1:00:39And remember, financial freedom is built one smart move at a time. Keep it simple. Keep it steady. And at any rate, I'll see you next time. Peace. The information contained is for general information and educational purposes only. It is not intended for a substitute for legal, commercial, and or financial advice from a licensed professional. Review our full disclaimer at einvestingforbeginners.com.

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