Dick's $2.4B Foot Locker bet, the Girl Scout brand empire, and behind the scenes of AG1's product research

13 Sep 2025 · 54 min

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In short

Notes on The Modern Retail Podcast Episode: Dick's $2.4B Foot Locker Bet, The Girl Scout Brand Empire, and Behind the Scenes of AG1's Product Research

Episode Overview

  • Hosts: Gabriella Barkho and Melissa Daniels
  • Episode Theme: Analyzing significant retail trends, including Dick's Sporting Goods' acquisition of Foot Locker, the Girl Scouts' new cookie launch, and insights from AG1 CEO Kat Cole.

Segment 1

Dick's Sporting Goods Acquires Foot Locker Key Details

  • Acquisition Size: $2.4 billion
  • Purpose: To increase Dick's market footprint and diversify its offerings.
  • Foot Locker's Challenges: Foot Locker is dealing with declining sales and significant debt ($444 million).
  • Dick's Performance: Reported a revenue increase of 5% to $3.65 billion, showing they are in a stronger position compared to Foot Locker.

Discussion Points

  • Market Landscape: The hosts discuss the broader implications of the acquisition within the retail landscape, signaling a trend where larger retailers acquire struggling competitors to consolidate their market presence.
  • Operational Changes: Mention of executive reshuffling, with Dick's Ed Stack taking leadership over Foot Locker's brands, including Kids Foot Locker and Champs Sports.
  • Strategic Opportunities: Discussion on how Dick's successful operational strategies might influence Foot Locker’s merchandising and customer engagement.

Key Takeaways

  • The merger is viewed as a strategic move for Dick's to stabilize Foot Locker and enhance overall efficiency in operations.
  • The future of retail could see more of such mergers as companies look to consolidate their market positions.

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Segment 2

New Girl Scout Cookie Flavor - Explore Moors Overview

  • New Product: "Explore Moors," inspired by Rocky Road ice cream, featuring chocolate marshmallow and toasted almond flavored cream.
  • Sales Evolution: Transition from traditional door-to-door sales to e-commerce and SMS marketing.

Discussion Points

  • Modern Marketing: The Girl Scouts have modernized their sales approach through digital channels, enhancing their reach beyond local neighborhoods.
  • Nostalgia Factor: Significant emotional and cultural resonance of Girl Scout cookies as a brand.
  • Adaptation to Trends: The organization’s evolution to include new flavors and marketing strategies that resonate with contemporary consumers.

Key Takeaways

  • The Girl Scouts’ ability to adapt to market changes demonstrates the importance of modernization in maintaining brand relevance.
  • Their sales model shows a blend of traditional and modern marketing techniques, appealing to both nostalgic and new customers.

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Segment 3

Interview with AG1 CEO Kat Cole Company Overview

  • Business Model: AG1 is a direct-to-consumer nutritional supplement brand that generated $600 million in revenue last year with a single product.
  • Recent Developments: Introduction of AG1 NextGen and AGZ (a sleep product) along with new flavors and wholesale distribution at Costco.

Key Insights from Kat Cole

  • Research and Development Focus: Discussion on AG1's commitment to rigorous scientific research, including triple-blind testing and clinical trials to validate product efficacy.
  • Operational Scaling: The importance of aligning operational capabilities with growth, including sourcing and production adjustments as the brand expands.
  • Product Innovation: AG1’s expansion into new product lines and flavors is driven by consumer demand and scientific advancements.

Key Takeaways

  • AG1's approach exemplifies how rigorous scientific validation can enhance brand credibility and customer loyalty in the supplement market.
  • Operational efficiency and strategic innovation are crucial for scaling in a competitive environment.

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Conclusion The episode delves into critical aspects of the evolving retail landscape, highlighting how traditional brands are merging to adapt to economic pressures, how nostalgic brands are modernizing to retain relevance, and how innovative companies like AG1 are defining their market through robust scientific foundations and strategic product development. Each segment provides valuable insights into the mechanisms behind successful retail operations in a rapidly changing environment.

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Transcript

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0:09Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Modern Retail Podcast, our show that covers the ways the retail industry is changing and modernizing. I am senior reporter Gabby Barco. I'm here with my co-host Melissa Daniels. How are you this week, Melissa? I'm doing well, Gabby. We've had a busy week in retail. Yeah, we sure have. It's been, yeah, it's been quite a week just all together. But, you know, we do have some news to cover this week. But I should preview that later on, Melissa is going to be interviewing Kat Kohl of AG1 and they're going to talk about how the brand is expanding outside of its signature greens mix.

0:51But first up, we're going to do our rundown portion. So today we're going to talk about Dick's Sporting Goods finalizing their Foot Locker acquisition. It's a$2.4 billion deal. And then we're going to end on a somewhat upbeat note because I think we need it. We're going to talk about the new Girl Scout cookie flavor. I know you're excited about that one, Melissa. Oh, yes. As a former Girl Scout and decided lover of sweets, I'm very excited to get into the e-commerce and retail aspects of the Girl Scout brand. Yeah. I didn't even know you were a former Girl Scout, so I cannot wait to get into that later.

1:34But first, we got to eat our vegetables first. So we're going to talk about Dick's Sporting Goods. First blush, what are your thoughts on this acquisition? Because it was announced in May, but this week, the merger is finally done. Yeah, we've known about this one for a minute, and now it's been finalized. And I think this is one of those stories that when we look back at this era in retail, we will point to as an example of how legacy companies have tried to stay modernized. In this case, I think it's, you know, Foot Locker is the one kind of getting bailed out here, right, given some of that company's struggles.

2:12But overall, I think that the way that foot traffic and malls are kind of in this precarious state right now, I think it's a good bet for Dix to try to just get more footprint. um so yeah i mean i i don't think this is the last of the big brick and mortar chain acquisitions we will see but i definitely think it's going to be one of the ones that we point to yeah i agree and then of course you know with these like whenever two giant retailers like this merge there's always executive reshuffling happening so yeah we can maybe talk a little bit about who's actually going to be leading this giant operation because at this point uh this brings up the number of stores for Dick's to 3 ,200 locations across 20 countries.

3:00So Dick's did confirm that the parent company is going to be running all the Foot Locker brands. That includes Kids Foot Locker, Champs Sports, WSS, and Atmos. So this is a global operation, of course. Right. And as part of this change, you know, there's going to be new leaders who will be leading some of these subsidiaries. And Foot Locker CEO Mary Dillon and Foot Locker President Franklin Bracken will be leaving. Executive Chairman of Dick's Ed Stack will lead the global Foot Locker business. And I think what's going to be interesting is to see how much of the sort of Dick's playbook carries over to Foot Locker.

3:43Dick's, I think, does a really good job catering to not just a core athletic consumer, but, you know, you're sort of hobbyist as well. And Foot Locker, I think, has just been such a mall staple and a sneaker staple. I really am wondering what sort of like diversification and merchandising we're going to see, given that that has been sort of a strength for Dick's. You know, Gabby, I'm wondering if you have any thoughts about what you think the opportunities are going to be here. Well, first things first, Dick's says that the buyout will allow it to save between$100 and$125 million in, quote, cost synergies.

4:18So basically creating efficiencies across all the retailers. But, you know, I do think, yes, they are basically bringing in this sneaker giant, right? That's really what Foot Locker is known for. I know they have apparel and accessories, but it is the sneaker destination. And of course, they've got all of these other brands underneath the umbrella. Whereas Dick's, I think in the last few years, has been definitely more successful at modernizing. We use that word a lot here for good reason. You know, I think they've been able to keep, for example, like their Nike partnership is still super strong.

4:55They were almost like handpicked by Nike, right? When Nike was pulling back, for example, from wholesale. So, yeah, they did do pretty well. And then on the other hand, you know, Foot Locker had some weak Q2 sales. It was like a 2.4 % drop in sales from last year. And they're also$444 million in debt. So, yeah, this is kind of coming at a pretty good time to be getting that safety net from a parent company. Yeah. And conversely, you know, Dix is at a point where they've been doing pretty well. And, you know, it's funny because sometimes we hear about how the outdoor sector is struggling because of the pull forward that happened during COVID, as well as just people's changing leisure habits.

5:44But, you know, Dick's, I think partly because it's probably so diversified, has been able to still be really strong. Dick's, for its part, had its second quarter revenue reported at$3.65 billion, which was a 5 % increase from last year and exceeded their estimates. I don't know how many brands can say they're exceeding their estimates right now. So credit where credit is due for them. I'm really interested to see, like I said, what the merchandising changes might be on the footlocker front, though. You have so much more retail space in malls. So how do you maximize that with the traffic that you already have there?

6:23Or is there something you do, you know, from a brand partnership or a drops perspective to, you know, become the draw and become the foot traffic generator for that property? Yeah. Well, we don't have any details yet about just like what the store designs are going to look like or if they're even going to change or if there's going to be like sort of crossover branding at all right now. But yeah, I think down the line, it will be interesting to see whether they're going to like, you know, maybe create more efficient floor plans or whatnot and, you know, more of like a curated sort of design. And so, yeah, we will see.

7:03But I guess, you know, maybe we can end it on a note of, you know, we talk about mergers and acquisitions a lot on this show. And it just seems like more and more retail is just becoming smaller in the sense that, you know, there's just less companies that own everything. And these are arguably two of the biggest sporting goods retailers in the country. And of course, abroad too. But yeah, I don't know. What are your thoughts there? I mean, it's huge. The fact that it went through is, of course, pretty notable. But it seems like a pretty friendly environment for M &A right now. Well, yeah. And like you said, we talk a lot about the acquisitions and the conglomerates that are amassing in size and picking up former competitors or using acquisitions as a way to diversify or to strengthen points where their portfolios are weaker.

7:58And yeah, I think that's something we're going to continue to see across the sectors, but especially in this brick and mortar category where a lot of legacy businesses are struggling. I do think what this does is open up some opportunity for companies to really specify in niche areas, though. Because if you have this sort of big conglomerate who are kind of serving as generalists that are expanding in apparel, expanding in sneakers. Who are the companies out there that are going to be really strong DTC climbing companies? Who are going to be really strong DTC trail running companies? Who are going to be the really strong open ocean kayaking companies, which is something I only did once, but would totally do again.

8:44I just wonder if there's going to be opportunities that crop up because you get such a big kind of conglomerate scale. Do you know what I'm saying? Yeah. I mean, you know, you've got like your REIs too. So there are some smaller, yeah, sporting goods retailers, but I guess, yeah, those are a little bit, you know, they're niche and they specialize in certain categories. But yeah, I am excited to see how the two brands merge and just, you know, how, what the turnaround plan is going to be for Dick's because clearly they see this as an opportunity and I'm sure they have plans for how to create more efficiencies at Foot Locker and yeah, bring those sales back up.

9:27Okay. Well, now let's talk cookies. This is your moment, Melissa. Is it? Yeah. I mean, there's a full disclosure. I come from a long line of fakers. You know, I'm not that much to write home about when it comes to baking, but it is what I bring to the potluck. You can usually count on me for sweets. What we saw this week, and it was news that made me really happy and then stood out as something different, is that there is going to be a new Girl Scout cookie. The Girl Scouts tease their newest cookie that's inspired by the Rocky Road ice cream flavor. They're called Explore Moors. They're filled with a chocolate marshmallow and toasted almond flavored cream.

10:09Delicious. Kind of a chocolate sandwich cookie with this luscious flavored filling. And it'll be available for the 2026 cookie season at the beginning of the year. You know, I know you maybe think I was sort of crazy for being like, we should talk about Girl Scout cookies. But I think the reason I wanted to talk about this was because it's hard to maybe find a sales operation that has not only like the footprint they do, but the nostalgia, you know, and when you think about what an icon the Girl Scout cookie is and what sort of a pop culture moment Girl Scout cookies are, I think it's really fun to see them expanding and trying something new.

10:51Yeah, you know, I think they're also bringing in a little bit more of a modern twist to their flavors. Of course, they're known for their classics. But yeah, anytime there's a new flavor announced, I feel like it grabs a lot of headlines. And actually, we were having an off mic, maybe like a debate of some sort where it's like, is this a retail brand technically? It is, you know, it's a nonprofit. But I do think, you know, the Girl Scout cookie selling season in itself is, it's still a consumer facing brand. So yeah, I think it's somewhere in the middle. So that's why we kind of thought like, how do we, you know, find the retail angle?

11:31And maybe what we talk about is actually how they have been modernizing the last few years. I mean, I remember in 2022, they got on DoorDash and that was a pretty, you know, controversial move, actually. Some people did not like that because it takes the spirit away, but you know, they do have to digitize like every other brand. Right. Yeah. Well, this is what was funny that we were sort of talking about as we were kind of discussing amongst ourselves. And that's, you know, do you want to buy Girl Scout cookies from the girl who's sitting out there in front of the store and selling with her family and her friends near her?

12:09And they're, you know, just kind of asking everyone who walks by if they're interested, does someone even come to the door anymore? You know, I did door to door sales when I was a Girl Scout. I walked around my neighborhood with my pen and pencil and my chart, and I would mark off, you know, what James Smith wanted to buy. And then I'd bring her her bag four weeks later when I had the delivery and leave it on her porch. Yeah, it was hard work. It was like you were doing Instacar before we had the language. A thousand percent. It was Instafeet. I was just walking, man. No one was driving me around.

12:43But what also what I've come to love about the current era of Girl Scouts selling is this e-commerce operation they've developed, right? So they got into e-commerce in 2015. And that was just sort of them sort of starting to figure it out. But now it really has sort of a life of its own. You know, I look forward every year to my friends who have children who are Girl Scouts selling me their link so I can order cookies from them. And so they know that, you know, Auntie Melissa ordered cookies from them. And it's cool because I'm not in their neighborhood. I'm many, many miles away, but I can still feel like I'm supporting them and giving them, you know, two thumbs up on their scouting and sales journey.

13:24I also think it's really fun to just see the way the Girl Scouts are advertising these days. There's like a text marketing campaign you can be in. I just opted into that this morning so I can make sure I'm up to date on everything. Yeah. I'm like, well, what kind of like, is there going to be like drops? Like what's What's the SMS strategy? Yeah, totally. This is where it's like, this is where our job is really fun because I feel like we have the knowledge of what brands do and how brands operate. And then we layer that onto our own personal interests or things that excite us in our lives as shoppers.

13:58And that's where I think our jobs can be really funny. But yeah, there's also a Girl Scout cookie booth finder on their website. So if you are a purist and you do want to find someone in person to buy from, They're, you know, arming you with that opportunity. You just go online and put in your zip code. Another thing that's really funny about the modern Girl Scout brand, and this to me proves that they are a brand, to be clear. I firmly believe this is a brand. And that's the like crazy amount of licensing they do. Have you seen this? Yes, this is sort of their relatively new play, right? Which is that they're taking like the Barbie and the Wicked playbook, essentially, and just splashing Girl Scout flavors across different categories.

14:42So they've got Native deodorant, the deodorant brand who does a lot of food collabs. They have a licensing deal with them. They've got Coffee Mate, Lip Smackers flavored like cookies. So yeah, it just seems like that nostalgia is just coming to all different categories. And obviously, people love that, especially right now. It's like a comfort from childhood. But I did see some debates whether that dilutes the brand or not. That's up for debate, I guess. Well, you know, because it should only be, should it only be Girl Scouts of the United States of America who make products with the Girl Scout name on it?

15:23Well, they've obviously decided it's okay to license that brand. And, you know, in the past five, 10 years, we've just seen it everywhere. there. I'm just picturing like a 12 year old girl boss, like sitting around with her team, like guys, is this diluting the brand or is this going to, yeah, be good for a customer acquisition? Oh my God, that's so good. I would like to see it. Well, that's the other piece of this too, is like, I think I read on their website that it was more than 700 ,000 scouts who sell cookies every year. And that's like 700 ,000, you know, kid bosses in training, right? And like entrepreneurs who are learning what it means to sell, learning what it means to like cold call or approach people, learning what it means to follow through to, or maybe even learning what it means to have to remedy the customer experience.

16:14What if the box is coming late? What if mom can't bring you to drop you off to deliver cookies around? Like there's going to be things that happen, right? So I feel like just even as that opportunity of what it means to be an entrepreneur, the fact that this is something this brand can do for kids, I think is really cool. Yeah. I mean, you know, there's also like the social media use, which I always think is really cute. Anytime you come across like a scout who's promoting her channel or her, what do they call them? Her link, I think you called it. So yeah, it is cool. So I'm I'm excited to see in the new year how this new flavor, which I think we mentioned the name, it's called Explore Moors, which is the Rocky Road flavor.

17:00Yeah, I would like to try it. Report back to modern retail in January and we'll be sure to give you our taste test. Yeah. Also, if anybody know any scouts that I can buy from, please send them my way because I don't know anyone currently. Yeah, send us your links. All right. Well, that was a really fun chat. I'm so glad we got to get into that. And hopefully, there will be future Girl Scout coverage from the modern retail angle. But in the meantime, I'm going to introduce our featured segment this week. I interviewed AG1 CEO Kat Cole, who is someone I've really admired for how she's grown this company into a real behemoth.

17:43You know, it had$600 million in revenue last year off of one skew. It sells green drink powder. That is a super supplement. Yeah, then they made that off of one SKU. But this year, this summer, actually, they finally released different flavors. They released an updated version of AG1 called NextGen that has some different formulations to it. And they decided to launch it in Costco with their original SKU. I mean, after this conversation, I feel like I could call her Professor Cole because I got a lesson in all things supplement formulation. So So this is definitely a conversation for anyone who's interested in what's going on in the supplement category or what's happening behind the scenes at these companies that are really at the cutting edge of science.

18:28It was a fascinating interview and they really have invested tens of million dollars into what they do to make their product. So it was very cool to go behind the scenes of that. Cool. Well, we're looking forward to it. And yeah, you can listen to that right after the break.

19:02you've probably heard of AG1 before, maybe even on a podcast. But today, we're not doing an ad read. we are digging into the story behind the brand itself. AG1 is a direct-to-consumer powerhouse. Last year, it brought in more than 600 million sales. After 15 years in the game, the company, formerly known as Athletic Greens, built its reputation on a single product, the AG1 Daily Nutrition Supplement. But this year, AG1's playbook has had some novel changes. They launched their first new product, a sleep supplement called AGZ. It also reinvented its flagship formula with AG1 NextGen and launched different flavors like tropical citrus and berry.

19:48And for the first time ever, you can find AG1 on shelves through a wholesale partnership with Costco. To unpack this new chapter of growth, I am joined by AG1 CEO Kat Cole. She came on board in 2021 as COO, and she brings more than 20 years of experience leading and scaling brands. Before AG1, Kat was president and COO at Focus Brands. And these days, she also serves on the boards of Slice and Milk Bar. I am so excited to chat with you today. Kat, welcome to the Modern Retail Podcast. Thanks for having me. How's your day going so far? Living the green dream. Oh, I love it. You get to start every day with a fun rhyme.

20:29That's great. Well, now with AGZ, it's the green, brown, and pink dream, but mostly green still, mostly green. Oh, maybe we can have a nice color theory confo. Maybe we can tap into some of that later in your packaging design. But let's get right into it here, you know, and kind of set the table on what's really behind some of these big changes and launches that you've had this year. You know, know, we talked about how AG1 has been this kind of one product brand for over a decade. And it's kind of amazing that one product alone could yield you$600 million in a year. I mean, that is not common.

21:08Yeah, totally. So I feel like there had to have been really interesting behind the scenes discussions on saying, okay, you know, why is now the right time to expand? And how do we do that? So, you know, take me back to what was happening in the company that that made you decide it was time to get into more SKUs? Yeah, it's so interesting, right? This, as you said, this incredible brand and product that has reached a truly unheard of scale. I am not familiar with another single SKU because it is only one green powder that is anywhere near the scale. I think the next closest D2C supplement companies are half our size and many of them have multiple.

21:54skew. So it's very unusual. But it is truly a testament to the quality of the product over time. Like you don't get that big through just marketing because if it's not real, you constantly have so many customers who've tried but who drop out of the bottom. From 2020 on, we were growing so quickly. We were growing by multiples, not percent, year over year at scale. And when that is happening, and I joined in 2021, when that is happening, often the most important priority is scaling operations with that growth. We were manufactured only in New Zealand, even though 90 % of our business was in the U.S.

22:42So we were air freighting green powder from New Zealand to the United States, which is very expensive, but a smart play if you're looking to optimize your cash conversion cycle. Hurts margins, but good for speed of turning that inventory into revenue. And so that fact alone, let's park on that. Before I go adding new products, new SKUs, new flavors, new form factors, I probably need to be made or at least blended in the country where 90 % of the revenue is. So the priority was greater for scaling operations relative to how the business had grown. That priority was greater than the priority for more products.

23:28So we need, because that priority not only serves the legacy business, but it enables the innovation. So sadly, very sadly for me, I wanted to do AGC much sooner. I wanted to do some of these other versions and flavors much sooner. But we had an obligation to be able to meet our demand and our growth in economical, replicable, and high-quality ways that allowed us to serve literally 2, 3, 4x the number of customers, not only without compromising quality, but while leaning into our stated mission, which is elevating the standard in the industry, which meant I needed singular global sourcing. I needed to add production to the countries, in particular the U.S., but others, where we had large parts of our revenue that would add elements of control.

24:16I needed to build out the science and the regulatory team in a pretty big way. I needed to shore up the supply chain and operations team to go beyond that little business that we had coming out of New Zealand. So that's the behind the scenes. That is why we hadn't launched what had long been planned. But eventually we got the team in place. We got the quality in place. We got the operations in place. We got the blending facilities. And now it's like, all right, now is the time. And so I would argue to me, some of these launches are a little late to me, but we made the right decisions with the information and the situation that we had at the time.

24:55But it explains why we've launched so much in such a little amount of time recently. Well, thank you so much for sharing that with me. I also feel like there's this really good insight for anyone who's building a company or thinking about scaling brands. It's just because you know you have a great idea. It doesn't mean that now's the time to put it out there. Because are all the pieces behind you in place to make sure that when you are ready to launch, it will be just as successful as you know it can be? Because everything else underneath it is already running at 110%. Yeah, and I would tell, especially if it's a consumable product, I would encourage founders and teams to be very careful not to be over-influenced by SaaS, software, or AI guidance where people say, just ship it and you can figure it out.

25:51If people are putting something in their bodies, you've got to be much farther along in your certainty and in your confidence about, especially if there are research-backed benefits, if there are claims of benefits, if people need to drink something every day, the flavor, the solubility. Yes, of course you iterate over time and that never ends. you're never done. It's never perfect if you're really listening to your customers because they change over time. However, I would argue things need to be farther along the development path before they get launched and people put it in their body. It's a supplement, a nutrition product, a drink.

26:36It's not software. Totally. That's a great segue into something I'm really excited to talk to you about and hear your perspective on. And that's this really important nutritional science foundation that AG1 has, you know, really as part of your DNA. But also, you know, I'd love to hear your thoughts too on sort of how you see that landscape evolving and how you make sure your company is A, you know, at the forefront of the nutritional science and B, not getting distracted by maybe noise and shiny objects in what can be a very noisy space. If we think about food, healthy food, there aren't a lot of double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials that prove that broccoli is good for you.

27:25There is research and there is science behind the active ingredients in certain fruits, vegetables, proteins, right, that we know a lot about that. But there aren't a lot of double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials for food. It is not required for you to trust that that grass-fed beef or that fish or that spinach are probably good for you. And so let's take that on one side, food. Then you have pharma over here where big markets, big business, billions and billions in research, FDA trials, things required, right? Because they're making disease claims and health claims. you're talking thousands or tens of thousands of people in trials often.

28:14And so you have these two extremes. Food as medicine or supplement, supplementation, nutritional supplementation, that is whole food based in many cases, but is not a pharmaceutical, lives in this space in the middle. And it is where we are using, at least in our case, an herb, a plant, a mineral, and the many bodies of research behind those ingredients at certain doses in certain environments to then say there's research that says this thing, if consumed in this way, at this quality, at this standard, at this frequency, has shown to have this benefit. And then there's products like ours that put multiple of those together.

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28:56So you have research-backed benefits of individual ingredients. But then if you put a lot of things together, you also have the opportunity to conduct additional research to say, how do these things interact? What benefit might occur from D3 and K2 together, which many people have heard of. I'm using common examples, but there are far less common examples. Vitamin C, anyone in the supplement world will tell you about vitamin C and the research behind it. And the average consumer thinks vitamin C helps with immunity, lots of research that says that, but that research was actually incomplete. weight, vitamin C is most effective when paired with citrus bioflavonoids, which is what is in AG1.

29:42It is also what is in fruit, right? You don't eat vitamin C off a tree. You eat fruit that has citrus, that has vitamins and bioflavonoids, other actives that allow the body to absorb and use those beneficial subsets of the product. So we saw years ago that conducting the additional layer of research, double blind, in some cases, triple blind, triple blind is when even the analyst doesn't know which is the placebo and which is the actual product. So you have the subject, the research subject, do they know if they're drinking a placebo, a green powder or actual AG1. So that's randomized placebo control.

30:26Random people have the placebo. Random people have the actual product. The study itself is randomized. Then double blind, the conductor, the people doing the experiment don't know. They are blind to what is what. So you're removing bias. And then even the people interpreting the results, right? Triple blind. and so it's like how many ways can we remove the bias that people might think makes a study not reliable and so we make the investment by the way the more blinds the more expensive right because you just got to add all the striking mechanisms i actually want to be in the room when they do that reveal when oh yeah that must be a fun moment for everybody involved exactly and so it was clear that as a supplement company even though it's not required say by the FDA, nor is it required by the customer, that in a layer of investment that could further demonstrate efficacy, also synergy, right?

31:28Multiple ingredients, what happens when they are together, also safety profile. A way to stand out amongst a crowded marketplace is to add clinical research, rigorous, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled human clinical trials that would add that layer of proof on top of we have research-backed ingredients, which is what every good supplement company who makes a supplement does. So that was the thinking. It's we see where the customer is going. We are at the scale, whereas the leader, a premium product, people are paying for the best. They deserve more proof of the benefits. And we believe that's where the customer is going.

32:07And maybe we won't get credit for it, but we believe that it is the right thing to do. to add proof. But it is also the right thing to do for a second reason, and that is to inform future innovation. Yeah, I almost want to see how much more you can sort of share about what this means operationally, because what I'm understanding from this conversation is, yes, you sell this blockbuster supplement that millions of people know and love, but really you're a science company and you're a research company. I mean, operationally, like, is it like half your team is devoted to research and half is product?

32:40Like, how are you sort of structured to hold all this? Half of our team is, I would call it the science formulation and production side of the product. Half. Yeah. It's a lot of people. And we have 10 PhDs on staff now and multiple clinical researchers and multiple practitioners. I have people in sports medicine. We have people in gut health. We have people in functional medicine. They are active practitioners or were practitioners and are now on the science and formulation side and bring a clinical practice lens to formulation. And then, of course, we bring in third parties because anyone will say, yeah, but you drank the Kool-Aid, right?

33:25You're biased. Of course. So it's like, how can we have the most objective, most certified, most trusted body of development institutions and research institutions that help us formulate our continuous improvement, any of our scientific claims? Like we hold ourselves to such a high standard. One, the FTC and the FDA do actually have regulations around what supplement companies can and can't claim. But the little guys or people who are earlier in their journey are fast and loose. And there aren't the resources to police their very illegal claims. And we see them. And it's tough, right, when you're a business holding yourself to a standard where you're not going to, even though you might have tens of thousands of customers telling you, which we do, that AG1 does something beneficial for them.

34:17if it has to do with making a disease better, you are not allowed to speak about that. You are not allowed to say 10 ,000 people who have this condition have said AG1 helps them unless you are a pharmaceutical company running pharmaceutical trials. That is the current law. And that marketing, it sounds like, it can't happen in a vacuum, right? You have to think about what the other companies are saying and how do you make sure that, despite whatever, I hate to use the term snake oil, is out there. But, you know, how do you make sure that that veracity of your product is coming across in what you're communicating to people?

34:54And I think that's where, yeah, I think it is really tough. And we have this conversation a lot when we talk to brands, not just in supplements, but also beauty, any personal care, right? This idea of efficacy is critical because especially now people are looking for value, right? And when you have this premium price product that you can't just go out and say, hey, this is going to change X, Y, and Z for you. They also won't buy it again if it doesn't work. Exactly. I mean, that is my point in a lot of interviews where people are like, yeah, but you're on podcasts and you have marketing. I'm like, do you think a podcast is what gets someone to invest$2.90 a day for five years?

35:42Yeah. I'm sorry. There are a lot of good podcasts, but nobody loves a podcast that much that they will keep drinking a product for three years that they don't believe is beneficial. No. And I'm so glad we just kind of went through what really happens behind the scenes because I want to go back to the, when you put NextGen out, because if I can just imagine having this, you know, legacy product at this point, people love, it made$600 million last year, and now we're going to change it. Like, what was that moment like for you and your team? You know, it sounds like it had been in the works for a long time before you put it on shelves, but three years.

36:18Okay, cool. So yeah, how did you know now is the time? Were you, were you nervous? Just like, what was that like for you and your team? I wasn't nervous because we had been working on it for three years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. AG1 Next Gen was about continuous improvement of our core product, which we have done many times in our 15 years. So it's a promise to our customers like the iPhone that keeps getting updated, like the Tesla that keeps getting updated. We are going to keep making this thing that you buy better. Not all the time, but as the science and as the technology advance where it is clear that something is better enough, should be available to you, and can benefit most people at a foundational nutrition level.

37:05This is not personalized medicine, right? It's precision medicine. It's for nutrients and gut health. It's for this area. And there were four things that we were tracking for years that we knew were going to drive the next continuous improvement of AG1. One was the science was very clear that most people in developed countries were still woefully deficient in B vitamins, in particular methylated B vitamins. People have heard of the gene mutation that makes it hard for people to methylate or process certain B vitamins. And having a methylated vitamin doesn't hurt people who don't need it. It does help people who do need it, right?

37:43So moving the B vitamins to an increased amount and to all methylated forms, took P5P in particular of one of the B vitamins. We knew we needed to do that, right? So that was one big one. And that affects the ingredients, the cost, and to a degree, a little bit of the flavor. It can. Then we also followed the research that said most people with healthy diets still have underdeveloped diversity in their gut microbiome. We don't get enough microbial diversity. And it's the underlying issue of so many things, and it can help so many things. And AG1 up to that point had a single or a double, depending on the year, strain probiotic.

38:24And we had worked with the top probiotic fermenters in the world on getting access at scale. Remember, we're a big company. So if we make something, we have to be able to make a lot of it. um that's a hard part and um it's a hard part and make a lot of it consistently with redundancy in the supply chain um and so we um doubled the amount of probiotics and went from a two strain to a five strain of the most clinically studied five strains of dairy-free uh live culture fermented probiotics. And that was a whopper of a cost increase. Whopper. They're very expensive. It's one of the most expensive things in the formula.

39:08It also affects the texture. It actually smooths it out, which is kind of interesting. But you're also talking about people who've been drinking two microbes, and now we're going to make it five. So do you have digestive discomfort for a little bit, like most people do when you have a new probiotic? So that was another one. We had to understand, is this something people can tolerate as a light upgrade? Or do we need to say, it's a big one, and do you want more? And it was very clear that it was light enough to still be tolerable by most. But we knew we would have a single-digit percent of customers who were like, I like the single strength.

39:47Like, I like the simpler formula. I want to stay on it. It's a very low, low percentage. But a tiny bit of our customers. They're still your customers. Yeah. Yeah. And they're like, I don't want the new thing. But most people are like, thank you. I pay a premium exactly for this. Not only do I pay a premium for more B vitamins and better probiotics, but other minerals that we added, molybdenum, boron, other things, and more human clinical trials for double blind, randomized placebo control clinical trials, more than any other blended product, blended ingredient supplement on the market that I am aware of.

40:22Certainly more than any green powder product. Most don't even have one human, gold standard human trial. We have four on NextGen that prove that it covers nutrient gaps. We literally took someone's blood, put them in a box, not one person, multiple people, took their blood vitamin serum levels before they drank AG1, have them drink AG1, keep taking their blood over the hours. They cannot leave, right? They're stuck. There's nothing else. And then you watch their blood serum levels go up. It is not expensive. pee. It is not expensive pee. And then all the gold standard digestive tests, some of which are shine studies, some of which are poop.

40:57And we prove that we improve microbial diversity by 10%. And so if you think about that rigor, that level of next gen, it helped us think about AGZ, which was launched with gold standard clinical trials on the ingredients on the label at dose. So we exposed even more of the label, even less than a proprietary blend. So people could see those actives and track the research behind it. And now we're layering in additional clinical rigor on top of that to further prove observation. Sleep's a really different one, right? You can't just like take, you can take blood and say, this is what's happening.

41:34Sleep, how many variables affect your sleep? A lot. So many. And so we're layering on other studies to add that rigor with AGZ as well. Remind me too, what's sort of the average lifespan of your customer right now? I mean, I have 500 customers who have been drinking AG1 for a decade. Wow. Now it's only 500 out of millions over years, but 10 years. So our average is multiple years, which is why we have the LTV that we do, which is why we can make the investments in the business that we do, because now there are some people who drink AG1 and go, not for me. Maybe it's an intolerance with an ingredient.

42:22There's 75 ingredients. If you're allergic to pineapple, there's pineapple in there. There are people who used to drink it and say, I need something more tasty. Well, now we have three new flavors. And flavors are a whole new ballgame for us, right? There were low double digit percent of rejecters who said, I trust that you're doing something high quality. I trust the science, but I can't get used to the, even the slightly pineapple vanilla original flavor of AG1, too green, too whole. So we added berry tropical, which is the sweetest of the bunch and citrus, which is my favorite, very bright and tangy.

43:02And now we're learning so many things about those customers. Some flavor customers don't want one flavor every day. they want to be able to switch it up. And that helps them stick with their routine. A good bit of our existing customers are like, I'm a purist. I don't want flavor. In fact, we have people who are like, can you make me an unsweetened version? And I have consumed our product without the very light, high quality, natural sweetener that we have in there. And it's pretty good. But I don't know that people know what they're asking for. Maybe you don't want to start your day with that.

43:42Like there might be other things. Spirulina has a strong, spirulina in particular is a very, it's an incredible nutrient for detoxification and antioxidant value and for your bites. It's not tasty. Yeah. Is that just looking for crunchy points? You know, you want to really just make sure that that is as pure as possible. Speaking of customers, though, I really want to talk about Costco. You know, you had teased earlier this year that y 'all were ready to go wholesale, made this great announcement with your Costco partnership. How's that going? You know, who's your customer there? It's been wild.

44:17Yeah, I'd love to hear about the sort of acquisition you've seen. We jokingly say we make no small plans. Our first move into retail was direct to national and the largest brick-and-mortar supplement retailer. Yeah, why not? Which is Costco. Why not? which is super scary, actually. It's scary because you have to make a lot of product, a lot. And you're going off of a lot of speculation, although deep, deep industry knowledge from the buyers of what volume your product might do. We're also unique in that we're a majority subscription business. And so unlike a typical CPG product that you can buy it anywhere and then, oh, fun, you're at Costco.

45:02We have a value to protect with our subscribers. And so one of the decisions behind the machine is that we made the call to put our original formula in Costco that did not have the upgrade of probiotics, that did not have the upgrade of B vitamins, that did not have the flavors for three reasons. One, if you're Costco, you probably don't want the new formula. You don't want to be a guinea pig. You want what's tried and true. If you're us and now I'm putting my product in a retailer where I no longer have a relationship with that customer, I don't know their name, I don't know where they live, I cannot email them, it's probably also not the place to put the new thing.

45:46Right? Like, I need the new thing, the upgraded thing to be with the people who already understand the routine, who understand the value, who I can communicate with, where we can learn together. And so that was another. The other was this idea of the value prop. Costco is about member value. We are also about member value. And so for us, it was important to protect this price point value for our subscribers, where they can look at what they get delivered to their home every month or wherever they want, where they can cancel any time, pause, reschedule. But they're like, I get that I'm paying a bit more per serving because I want always the forward version of the product.

46:36I want the best. I want the one with the most clinical research. And so if what's at Costco is not that, it also, it's, but still amazing, right? An unbelievable product that has built a$600 million portfolio that has changed the lives of millions of people and their digestive health and their energy and their immune health. It's also allows that to be a better value there. And so it became a part of our portfolio strategy to have AG1 Classic in the original flavor, which only has one flavor, the original flavor, be in retail and have AG1 Next Gen that is the most forward-leaning, most advanced with the most research behind it and the most flavor variety, be our D2C product.

47:19And that's not a unique playbook. Many companies in D2C and retail have more variety on their site than they have in retail. It makes sense. Yeah, it makes sense. And it allows everyone who is buying where they're buying and paying what they're paying to understand that in that place with that choice, they are in fact getting the best value return on the price they're investing. And we will go into other retailers. Costco is not the, we're not, you know, they're not the only move, but they're such a beautiful first move partner because of their member philosophy that is consistent with ours. Incredible opportunity to sample, right?

47:53That's a very big deal for a product like ours. And we'll make other moves into retail very soon. Yeah. You've mentioned something a few times that I would just love to get a little more insight on. And that's the way you've had to make so much product and scale and make sure that your factories and your manufacturing facilities are where they need to be. This is obviously happening in the tariff environment, too. What's sort of the headline right now on your supply chain and your manufacturing capabilities? You know, are you still investing and expanding that? Are you getting hit by tariffs? What's sort of happening there?

48:29it's one we don't have a massive exposure of ingredients in the countries where tariffs are more significant but that is a testament to our incredible but we have some um there are just some of the best herbs in the world that are grown in certain countries and not others whether it's the altitude or the farms or the soil quality um and so agricultural regionality is a thing but we also back to the very beginning of our conversation, spent the early part of my tenure with the company shoring up supply chain and operations. Our team is incredible. We literally have some of the most experienced global buyers, sourcing team, manufacturers, manufacturing partners, quality, the QA, QA.

49:17We test everything inbound, everything while it's blending, every batch gets tested for all of the things that we claim. I mean, it's a, and then we send it to third parties to test. Our QA organization is beastly in their operating structure. And so what that means is that whether it's economic volatility or tariffs, we are better suited than most to navigate that because of the strength of our team, the sophistication of our contracts, the partnership we have in sourcing. The bigger issue is our scale. It is easy to get something good, get a little bit of something good. It is very hard to get a lot of something good and then have that a lot be very similar, consistent, and quality.

50:02again, we don't just test, we DNA test. Everyone remembers PCR from the COVID days. We PCR test because companies will send plants that are not the right DNA. Even the best manufacturers in the world. We have caught some craziness coming in. And we have this joke that while we were working on AGC and lemon balm is one of the ingredients, we got in this product and it had no like lemon balm in the lemon balm. And I'm like, what if there's no lemon in the lemon balm, like what is it just balm? Like what is it? And you find that from time to time. We also put a lot on our label. We reveal the percent of actives.

50:44And because we reveal it, it means we have to live up to it. Many people will put like ashwagandha or chamomile in their sleep formula and not not share the percentage of withanolides in the ashwagandha or the apigenin and chamomile. We put the percentage of the active, which means we have to DNA prove that that percentage of active, which is actually what makes you feel something with those herbs, plants, ingredients is in there. That is the rigor that we go to. And so we have the supply chain team to do that. We have a supply chain team that has run companies multiples larger than ours with products far more complex, believe it or not, that are experienced in fermentation and actives when these ingredients get together.

51:28Having live culture, dairy-free probiotics is a wild thing. And so we've got the team for it and have navigated it beautifully. But continually as we grow, scale becomes a challenge, right? We are the largest purchaser of 15 of our ingredients in the world. And that may sound like a brag. It's not, it is actually a pain point because if you're, if you're buying the most, you're probably going to need to go either build farms or create more farms or go to farmers and get them to secure more inventory your way going forward. And then if an ingredient becomes more popular at that scale, now you have more price competition for it.

52:09So cost of goods can go up and we have not raised our price on AG1 for eight years. Eight years. People think it's expensive. If we had just gone up with CPI, it'd be like$120 a bag, not$79. And so we have absorbed a lot of those natural cost increases. And we've also gotten cost benefits because of our scale. So it's give and take. Right. Such a great overview. One real quick lightning round before we wrap up today. What does success look like for AG1 this time next year? September 2026, where do you want to be sitting? You know, for us, it's the same mission. We are empowering health ownership, but it's no longer only with daily foundational nutrition with AG1.

52:55It is with daily foundational health habits. So it's millions of people are waking up drinking AG1 and powering their wind down and supporting more restful sleep with AGZ. So that morning night combo that we've moved into this place of, we're not just, you know, the morning health drink for morning people, we're the morning health drink and the nightly wind down drink for those who still want to power a great morning. Very cool. Well, I so look forward to hearing about what else is in the pipeline in another two, three years that you'll be able to come back and share with us. Kat Cole, thank you so much for sharing your time with us on the Modern Retail Podcast.

53:35My pleasure.

53:40Thank you for listening to this episode of the Modern Retail Podcast, a show by Digiday Media. If you haven't already, please subscribe and head to Apple Podcasts to leave us a review and a rating. If you want more from Modern Retail, you can find us at modernretail.co. You can find me, senior reporter Melissa Daniels, on LinkedIn and Blue Sky. and you can also subscribe to our LinkedIn newsletter at the Modern Retail Profile. We'll see you next week.

From the publisher

On this episode of the Modern Retail Podcast, co-hosts Gabriella Barkho and Melissa Daniels break down Dick's Sporting Goods’ $2.4 billion acquisition of Foot Locker. They also discuss the debut of the Girl Scouts’ newest cookie, the Exploremores, and how the organization has evolved from door-to-door sales to SMS-powered marketing.

For this week’s featured segment, Daniels sits down with AG1 CEO Kat Cole. The green supplement giant pulled in $600 million in revenue last year with a single SKU, but 2025 has brought major growth: a reformulated powder called NextGen with new flavors, the launch of its first sleep product AGZ, and a wholesale partnership with Costco. Cole shares how AG1 invests in R&D — from triple-blind testing to scaling supply chains — and why adding more probiotics or B vitamins comes with big costs.

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