GLP-1 shakeups, the 'Cowboy Carter' effect and the fallout of bird flu

0:04Hey, everyone. Welcome to this week's Modern Retail Podcast. I'm Gabby Barco. I'm here with senior reporter Melissa Daniels. Hey, Melissa, how are you this week? I'm doing great, Gabby. It's springtime. It's May. There's a lot going on, and we have a lot to get into today. Yeah. Later on in this episode, we're going to be talking about the fallout of the avian flu and how it's rippling through the retail world. Eggflation isn't just affecting your grocery bill. It's also had other ramifications that go beyond price. So we're excited for you guys to listen to that. But first up, let's get into the rundown portion of this week's episode with some news.

0:48First up, we're going to check in on the telehealth platforms that have been prescribing GLP-1 medication. There's been a pretty big update in the industry. So we'll talk about that. And then we're going to have a fun segment where we talk about how tours like Beyonce's Cowboy Carter that just kicked off are really moving the needle on certain categories in retail. We've been seeing it a lot in the last few years. So we thought this is a good time to talk about cowboy hats and denim sales and all of that. But yeah, first up, let's talk about GLP-1. Yeah, GLP-1 medication. This is an area I haven't done a ton of reporting on.

1:30I've sort of been in the periphery looking at it. But I'm curious to see what you've been hearing from companies and how the telehealth platforms have some changes they've needed to make recently. Yeah, so we're basically going to be talking about the recent FDA ban of compounded semiglutide medication, a.k.a. GLP-1s. You know, a lot of these companies really have had just blockbuster success in the last couple of years since the medications took off. But, you know, there's some tension within the industry with, you know, between the platforms and the big pharma companies that manufacture the branded medications.

2:10We'll get into that. But first, let's take it back a step. So like I said, in March, the FDA banned any non-branded GLP-1 medications. And seemingly overnight, a lot of these compounding pharmacies had to basically stop filling scripts. And of course, you know, the platforms also are considered, you know, consider themselves part of that category. So they do mix their own compounds. So that's where I feel like I don't understand how any of this works. Can you explain what it means for a compound? Yes. So if you're seeing, let's say, a HIMSS or HERS ad that says get prescribed GLP-1 medications, weight loss program, they have all of these programs that they offer.

3:00They actually don't use the brand name like Ozempic, Wigobi, Manjaro. But they're not making generic versions of these drugs. I have to emphasize this because the patents on these drugs actually don't lift until like 2032 at the earliest. Right. Which brings us to like, what are compounded GLP-1 medications? Neither of us are, you know, pharmacists. So I'm going to try to explain it as simply as possible. Yeah, not generic. That's a little bit of a misconception. But basically what happens is during medication shortages, the FDA allows approved pharmacies to mix, aka compound, their own prescriptions to meet high demand.

3:47And as you know, if you haven't been living under a rock, you know that these drugs have been in super high demand in the last couple of years, which is why the compounding was available. And then, of course, a lot of platforms and pharmacies jumped on and created programs to sell them, right? Some have referred to this rule as a loophole that's basically been taken advantage of with the explosion of GLP-1s, but they did make way for some of these telehealth platforms to sell their versions of, you know, Ozempic, Wegovy. And obviously, if you've been following earnings, they have been doing very well.

4:26You know, I mean, a lot of these platforms obviously offer other treatments like hair loss, skincare. But I personally really think that this was a game changer for a lot of these companies. And obviously, they've acknowledged it because up until now, you know, they've been selling them. And now with the band, they really had to actually start to grapple with or play ball with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, which are the big two companies that make the branded drugs. Yeah, yeah, that's a really great, great overview. And I agree that I have seen a lot of marketing from companies and telehealth platforms about this.

5:06So say I'm one of those telehealth platforms that's been selling a compound, this ban comes along, you know, what are my options? And what does that ban mean for me? Yeah, so there was a little bit of like an overlap gray area, you know, it was announced in March, but I think some pharmacies have until like May 22nd. So there was a little bit of a deadline coming, which explains why this week we saw a flurry of announcements of, you know, Hims and Hers, Rho, all of these platforms that announced partner, like official partnerships with these big companies. So I think it goes without saying that obviously Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly did not want to lose out on out-of-pocket weight loss patients.

5:51You know, some of them are even claiming that compounded GLP ones are deceiving customers because they're not like official formulas for context. So like without insurance, Ozempic and Wigobe can cost upwards of$1 ,000 a month, whereas the compounds, yeah, the compounds, you know, it's like you can get it for like a couple hundred dollars. So obviously cost is a huge reason why they even had so much traction from patients that can't be covered because you do have to be diabetic. Most insurance won't cover you unless you are. So if you just want it for weight loss, you do have to self-pay, which is where the compounding really comes in.

6:31But yeah, I mean, I guess with that, obviously there has been this battle that's been brewing and a lot of lawsuits, But this week, it's been a big turning point where like Novo Nordisk announced deals with Hims and Hers with Rho, LifeMD to sell Wegovi at like a relatively discounted price compared to out of pocket. I think Hims and Hers are going to be offering it for$599 a month. Rho and LifeMD are$499 a month. I should mention, though, that I thought it was interesting because$4.99 is what Novo Nordisk's own direct-to-consumer program costs. So, you know, this is just going to be, I guess, like a marketplace, you know, where people can just kind of pick and choose what platform they want to go with.

7:22Yeah, you know, I would love to be a fly on the wall during those negotiations between him and hers and Nova Nordisk where they're talking about pricing and who's able to offer what. But I think the story is a really good example of like the way that capitalistic forces can kind of lay on top of retail and can lay on top of medical all at once. You know, it's this convergence of insurance and health care and retail and marketing and tech, you know, right? Because these are telehealth platforms where you're signing up online and, you know, maybe not even doing a video call with a doctor. or maybe you are just depending on the platform's operation.

8:01I thought it was interesting to, you know, surprise, surprise, him's and hers jumped 25 % in the markets after this news. You know, it's one of those things where maybe like everybody wins except the consumer. Yeah, you know, that the people might have to pay more, but the companies are still going to do pretty well. Yeah, I mean, I guess this is where you start to get into like the American healthcare system, which we don't have a lot of time for. But, you know, I guess on the one hand, you're getting the real branded drug now, you know, for a lot cheaper than you would have. But as far as compounding, which a lot of people did rely on, I read a lot of forums and comments about this.

8:41And people do really, a lot of people do say like, I wouldn't be able to afford this if it wasn't through like hims and hers, for example. So it's interesting, you know, So is it a lot cheaper? Sure, I guess it's about 50 % off, but I am interested to see like, are people going to stick with the telehealth startups to pay for this? Or if we're gonna start to see some movement because all the announcements, the timing is no coincidence, like I was saying, but I think the next few months and more of the earnings are gonna show whether this is going to benefit or potentially hurt some of the sort of startup telehealth companies.

9:23All right. Well, a fascinating story and hopefully one that we'll continue to watch. But let's move on to something in a completely different arena. That's the Cowboy Carter tour with Beyonce kicking off her tour this week. All eyes are on the tie-ins and collaborations. You know, from my perspective, especially just fresh coming off of festival season here in the desert, music and live entertainment has just become such a win for brands and such an opportunity, you know, and some things that a lot of brands are hungry to tie into. And just tours and branded partnerships have always been around.

9:58But I think it's becoming even more popular with mega arena shows. Yeah. And, you know, it is timely to be discussing this this week because, as I mentioned earlier, the Cowboy Carter tour is kicking off in North America. And Beyonce's Hair Caroline Sacred is actually a pretty big fixture. They have this pop up at select stops on the tour called this sacred road show where you can try and purchase products. And the brand announced that it is the official beauty brand of the tour. It did just recently launch at Ulta. So there's some Ulta involvement, some activations going on there, too. But yeah, I mean, even, you know, of course, there's a slew of official product collapse happening.

10:41But I thought it would be interesting for us to talk about everything that goes on beyond the official collaborations. Yeah, I think that's interesting, too. I've seen so many people in Facebook groups and on forums talking about the Cowboy Carter tour and what they're wearing. You know, it reminded me of a lot of what we saw during the Eros tour, right, of people wanting to have their outfit picked out and just perfect. You know, in this case, Cowboy Carter has just been really, really great for Western fashion. There were really big boot sales after the album dropped. There were really great Levi's sales thanks to that stellar song she did with Post Malone.

11:19These were all sort of things that trickled down from her album. Some outlets are calling it the Cowboy Carter boost. But it's funny because, you know, I think it sort of lays on top of Western already sort of having a moment. You know, I reported last year about how brands like Ariat and Takovas and Filson were getting a boost because of Yellowstone. They had some official collabs with the show in some cases or in other cases. They were just getting bumps because people wanted that look, that really classic Western look. You know, Boot Barn is doing really well. Their last earnings showed that revenue increased by 17 percent from a merchandise category perspective.

11:55Their comp sales were positive, especially across ladies' Western boots and apparel. I think companies that have been doing Western and been doing Western well are really poised to succeed because of sort of the Cowboy Carter effect. But, you know, I'm sure there'll be a lot of secondhand sales to, you know, prepare yourselves to see boots and hats that people wore at the Cowboy Carter concert trickling through Poshmark and eBay. Yeah, I think you mentioned it, but just like the week after Cowboy Carter was released about a year ago, Serkana said that Western style boot sales spiked like 20%. But I think to zoom out a little bit, you know, why are these partnerships or why are, you know, these trickle effects, if you will, getting so popular?

12:41I mean, I think it's probably safe to say social media is a big part of it. People want to like I feel like I really like looking at the outfits, even if I'm not participating. Everybody wants to show their looks. But maybe we could use Beyonce as a case study. You know, the last tour, which wasn't that long ago, you know, the Renaissance tour in 2023. There was sort of a similar wave, right, where she worked with brands. A lot of people bought silver themed Renaissance outfits to wear to the tour. During that Renaissance tour, she partnered with several designers and brands, including Black-owned companies.

13:20So at the time, I spoke to the Honeypot, which is an Atlanta-based feminine care brand, and they actually distributed free products on the ground at their Atlanta tour stop. So just a lot of activations all around. But we're seeing that, you know, of course, Beyonce is a big name. So it's attracting a lot of this. But we also saw it with Taylor Swift, right? Of course, that was the blockbuster heiress tour. Yeah, you know, and this year with Beyonce too, I think she has some great fashion. If you haven't checked out those costumes yet, you really ought to. She's got Muglier. She's got, I think, Cavalli, is it?

13:59There's some really, really beautiful stuff. As far as the audience perspective, though, you're right. We saw a lot of eras tour costumes and outfits and people trying to really match the theme. There was a lot of Taylor eras inspired outfits where people wanted to be fearless or they wanted to be red or they wanted to be lover and just tons of sparkles. Whereas in this case in Cowboy Carter, we're really leaning Western. I think TikTok is a great place to experience this. If you haven't scrolled through and checked out everyone's outfits, it's definitely worth your time. You know, Cowboy Carter outfit ideas is like a viral search trend.

14:34And there's a lot of summer dates to get through. So I think we're going to see a lot more to come. Well, Gabby, thank you for a great rundown this week. Really interesting topics, and I'm sure ones that we will keep minding on modernretail.co. And now let's get into the featured segment. As you mentioned, Gabby, this week we are talking about the fallout from avian flu. Eggflation isn't just affecting your grocery bill. Well, you know, there's also other companies and sectors that are being affected. So I'm excited to get into that with you right after the break.

15:13All right, Gabby, let's get cracking. Let's do it. Okay. Do you see what I did there? I did. I did. Let's lay the groundwork, shall we say. All right. Great. So today I'm really excited to dive into a topic that's been all over mainstream news headlines, but it's also playing a really big, big role in retail right now. And that's egg prices. They're continuing to hit record highs because of the fallout of avian flu. You know, a dozen eggs right now is costing an average of six dollars and 20 cents around the country per the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data that I checked out this morning.

15:50Egg prices are predicted to increase another 54.6 % in 2025. That's also according to some USDA forecasts from earlier this year. So if you were a shopper who was hoping you'd see egg prices come down, that is not the case. But today we're going to talk about how that's rippling through the retail industry. It's affecting more than just the prices on shelves at the grocery store. Companies that use eggs and their ingredients are seeing cost shifts. Companies that are breakfast alternatives are seeing some bumps in business. and it's also a great time to be in the chicken coop business. Then we'll have a conversation with Gabby and Russell Brewer from the pet food brand Spot and Tango about how their company is handling the changes.

16:30We'll also attempt to keep track of how many egg puns we can make in this episode. So play along at home. Yes. So before we get into it, lay of the land. Gabby, what are you paying for eggs in your locale? Okay, so recently I have paid anywhere between I'd say like maybe five to eight to nine dollars I guess depends on the type of eggs I probably have a little bit of a and this is like the cheapest I could find but it's a little skewed because I'm in New York I know some people are like I don't really see a like a big difference and other people are crying about it I feel like this has also become like a little bit of a politicized topic it's kind of become shorthand for grocery prices so yeah uh it's it's going to be interesting to talk about what about you?

17:18Yeah, it's definitely become one of those indicators. You know, people talk about egg prices as sort of a gateway into, wow, I'm paying more at the grocery store these days. You know, I can get an 18 count of cage-free eggs at my local Walmart for about$10, which somehow feels like a good deal, even though I feel like it used to cost half of that. I did see at my local Aldi too, they were limiting of how many cartons you could buy to two per customer, I think just in an effort to keep people from hoarding eggs. Our producer, Sarah, has let us know that she was seeing a dozen free eggs from Stop and Shop if you made a$100 purchase right before the Easter holiday.

17:56So that was sort of like using eggs as a bonus, which I thought was funny. It's like the new like you get a free turkey on Thanksgiving marketing tactic. Yeah. Yeah. I guess with that, maybe we can start talking about pricing now. Yeah. Yeah. So what's interesting here, and I think this is why people are so hot and bothered about the egg issue, is because eggs used to feel super cheap, right? Egg prices usually stayed under$2 a dozen until 2022. And that's when the avian flu outbreak started. It started spiking to over$4 a dozen in late 2022 and in early 2023. And it was dropping back down again because the supply came up a little bit.

18:36But then prices kept going up through 2024. And here we are spring 2025 and we're hitting over $6 a dozen. For comparison, eggs were about$2.90 a dozen in March 2024 compared to over$6. So because we're seeing these price increases, some shoppers are starting to look at breakfast alternatives. And there are some companies that are seeing benefits from that. Gabby, you know, tell me a little bit about any breakfast alternatives you've been using in light of higher egg prices. Yeah. Okay. So I have learned to like cottage cheese in the past few months or a year. I yeah, I was never a cottage cheese person.

19:21It's a texture thing. That's pretty common. But you know, I learned I went down the rabbit holes of the food influencers and you can make like flatbreads and you can throw it in a blender and make it smooth. I also have been making like protein oatmeal, which is sort of like a nice middle ground. There's also some brands that make like protein oatmeal, protein pancakes. Just I guess it is a good time to test out different things because I was sort of stuck in the like two eggs and toast for a long time. smoothies also, you know, make use of like protein powder that I have on a shelf somewhere I forgot about.

20:01So yeah, I mean, that's it's just me, though. But like, I'm wondering actually for a family because mostly you're making breakfast for you and a little one to shout out to Nico. Yeah, in theory, you know, we really only do eggs on breakfast weekends, say in the morning is is usually a busier thing. We do a lot of oatmeal and smoothies in my house too. But we do use eggs in dinner a lot. We're baking the fried rice and scrambled eggs and fried rice. I'm a big quiche person. And I do a lot of eggs and dipping for like chicken when I'm making like breaded chicken and things like that. So I use much more eggs as like an ingredient rather than a main.

20:42So for that, like alternatives, you can use applesauce. I do a lot of baking with applesauce instead of eggs. And that's also nice if you're serving vegans. You know, it's kind of a good alternative there. But, you know, I buy the 18-pack. It lasts pretty long. I even made a quiche for Easter. You know, I just went ham. Oh, I see what you did there. Just put six eggs in a quiche. Oh, there it is. Yeah, okay. Though, I'm getting so hungry. And also, sorry, we didn't mean to turn this into a cooking podcast, but I like this little segment. We're getting a little more personal than usual. But it should be.

21:16Yeah, speaking of, so, you know, just using my own, as journalists do, you take your own anecdotes and your personal behavior, and then you project it by going out and trying to find data that proves what you're doing. And I, yeah, I did, I reached out to Nielsen IQ about whether this is actually a thing. And they did confirm that, yes, like yogurt, other alternatives, just like literally other types of breakfast that have protein, ideally, are taking away some market share from eggs. We also have heard from, you know, the actual alternatives. There's now like these lab grown or plant based egg alternatives that are capitalizing on this moment a little bit by being a little cheeky and being like, hey, we don't have the flu.

22:02But yeah, maybe do you want to go through some numbers right now just from Nielsen that I was looking over? Yeah, for our data hungry listeners out there, Nielsen had shared that 48 % of regular egg eaters have scaled back or stopped eating egg for breakfast. And more than 50 % of those reducing egg consumptions are opting for cereal. That's particularly among boomers and households with children. I also thought it was pretty interesting that about 40 % of regular egg eaters saying that their frequency is less often. They're just really scaling back. And 9 % have stopped buying altogether, which I think is really interesting because you're still spending that money elsewhere.

22:43But I don't know if it just feels better, you know, because a box of cereal maybe lasts too longer. Maybe, you know, a really nice loaf of bread is multipurpose and, you know, serving other goods than toast. You know, you can make great sandwiches or French toast and things like that. Yeah. And we should mention that this data is from March 2025. So fairly recently, sort of like the peak of this topic. But yeah, with that, there's also some marketing opportunities we're seeing in the breakfast space. What have you been seeing, Melissa? I thought it was really funny that we stumbled across the Just Egg Instagram post that said this and never having to be worried about bird flu ever again, because their supply chain as an egg alternative is not reliant on the chicken supply.

23:32Stonyfield, the yogurt brand, did a giveaway of 10 ,000 tubs of yogurt. They were sharing that consumers can get the same amount of protein as an egg from a serving of yogurt and, you know, sort of saying, oh, you can serve it with granola. You can serve it with fruit, fast, easy, delicious breakfast. We're big yogurt fans in my house. So can confirm that yogurt is a great swap for eggs or other baked goods. The other thing that I thought was interesting was Easter. You know, we wrote about this at Modern Retail and I talked to Paws, the egg dyeing company. They were still seeing, you know, great sales for people dying eggs for Easter.

24:09But it was interesting that some people were looking into alternatives. Adobe found that marshmallow sales were up 190 % year over year before the Easter holiday, presumably because of people trying to dye marshmallows instead of eggs. Maybe we can now start talking about like source of eggs, which brings us to chickens. Not a topic I ever thought we would be talking about at Modern Retail. But Melissa, you've been tracking like chicken raising chicken coops products, I guess, like there's a lot that goes into it. I don't know much about it, but it seems like the retailers that supply a lot of these items for you to start, you know, a chicken coop at home are also seeing a spike.

24:51I guess this is kind of like it reminds me of the pandemic when people like picked up hobbies. But in this case, you're getting chickens so you can get like fresh eggs every morning. Yeah, yeah, exactly. You know, So Tractor Supply Company has been seeing increased demand for chicks since 2023 when egg prices started going up. For those who are unfamiliar with the out-here lifestyle, Tractor Supply Company is a really big supplier of chicks for people who want to do their home backyard chickens. About one in five of their shoppers are actually there because they have chickens or are buying chicken-related goods.

25:28So it's a big driver of their business. This year, they're in the middle of what they call chick sales. And when they did their earnings this past week, CEO Hal Lawton said that seeing really good demand from chick sales this year. They're seeing continued momentum from core customers and they're seeing strong engagement from new customers. And he particularly attributed that to the price of eggs. What's also kind of interesting is you can't just have chickens. You need a coop. You need chicken toys. You need chicken treats. And so there's this whole adjacent category for chicken supplies. And I've actually been trying to write the story for like a year.

26:04So I'm really glad we're talking about it now because I think it's fascinating. I live in a rural area where a lot of people have chickens. And I think people do sometimes want to spoil them and make sure they have really great lives. You know, they're an extension of pets for some people. You know, even if they're there for egg laying purposes, they still want to treat them really well. Lawton on the earnings this week said that they're seeing a lot of strength in big ticket coops with some models approaching$1 ,000, which I thought was really interesting. But when you think about it, you know, it is an investment that you're putting into your home.

26:37And so, you know, people want to make sure they're setting it up the right way. But it's a tricky category, you know, for them to sort of merchandise it and they have to forecast it early because they're dealing with hatcheries. To figure out that match of how many chicks do we get versus what demand is going to be is sort of an interesting forecasting challenge for them. But so far, so good from Lawton's perspective. Yeah, I'm actually wondering, can you give us like context into like the prices, the price points on this? Because like I was looking and I think a coop can go anywhere from like a couple thousand dollars and up.