SaaStr 835: AI + B2B in 2026: Find the Tailwinds or Get Left Behind with SaaStr CEO and Founder Jason Lemkin

25:10Okay. So let's, let me, I tried to summarize all the leading analysts. ISG, 30 % of the budget increases into AI. Deloitte's in 36%. McKinsey came a low at 20%. That's still a lot. BCG, Boston Consulting Group. AI is the number one being reallocated from other categories. Gartner, top one to two priorities across almost all its CIOs. They're saying their incremental budget, though, is only going up 2.79%. and they're budgeting 9 % price increases for next year. 9 % price increases. So what does all this mean? You've got to steal this budget from some of these people. You've got to steal it from other AI need them.

25:50We got to be a top free AI initiative or steal it from the price increases or you're not going to get it. So I said, steal or be stolen, it's up to you. But you can't just stand around like in past years and build a great product. A great product that optimizes workflow, that has an ROI calculator on your website, that makes your team more productive, there's just no frigging budget for it. Okay, AI is about more than being productive. Ultimately, it's about replacing or augmenting humans and delivering relatively rapid and massive ROI, much more than traditional workflow and database software.

26:25So you either got to be in this game or the budget's going to be stolen from you for price increases and to free up money for AI because there's always so much.

26:36so here i collected it a little bit just to show it to you in a different way even though spend into software is going to be a right was a record this year growth of 11 and 15 next year at this scale at over a trillion the average public cloud company's growth is coming down you know this but it's worse than this because they're not grabbing the budget palantir is securities. Other things are going well. Klaviyo is tying to the great growth of e-commerce as a Shopify. Figma's got some of it. These are the winners. These are the like five of the top winners with the best AR multiples that are public companies.

27:17But overall, we kind of get a D minus. The leaders, the public companies get a D minus for this year too. It's not just a few of us. A D minus because they didn't tap into all that great budget. Where's that acceleration? You see Even this chart, I don't see any of it. I see consistent deceleration. There are examples. MongoDB tapped back into it this year. They re-accelerated. Even Twilio came back a bunch. But no one really crushed it. They let all this money go to newer entrants. Okay? It's more power to our investments and our friends that made money from it. But pretty bad job by incumbents.

27:53Not just some startups and unicorns, but the Pupco. There are some exceptions. obviously snowflake databricks on the private side palantir is crazy but we really didn't get it all and so you got to do it next year and i just kind of know this but i wanted to break out actually if you go to saster.ai our newer site not.com we're still maintaining both we can talk about it if you want but we have market data where we pull all these top companies and we show you exactly what's happening every day if you want in real time you can even get a real-time newsletter We show you multiples. It's just for B2B.

28:26It's pretty cool. So I literally just copied this from saster.ai slash markets. And we update this every day live. But it just, so not only are we sort of in an AI and non-AI world, in many cases, in B2B, like there's this massive multiple divergence in today's world. Now, this has always been true. Faster-growing companies are worth more than slower-growing companies. But it's just, it's very divergent. say so these are public companies um you've got to scale these numbers up for startups all these small companies have to grow faster than big companies all things been equal but if you look at the left if you're in the top bucket the ones at a billion plus that are growing 30 rubric palantir figma and others figma is actually the low trader in this group they're still trading at 23 times ar that's pretty damn pretty damn good now it's kind of palantir warps it as just rubric a little bit, but the growth, but they're growing 43 % as public companies, public companies.

29:26That's a lot at that scale. The boat, actually the ones in the middle are holding up surprisingly well. The ones that actually, we saw a lot of deceleration, the ones that aren't decelerating that are growing 24 % are growing almost, are almost 12 times ARR. That's a pretty high multiple. And then you're just getting flushed at the bottom. You're getting crushed when growth is less than 20%, 4.9 times ARR. I wrote up PagerDuty this week, growing 4 % and now profitable, trading at two times revenue, 500 million in it, worth a billion. Eventbrite today, I think, sold at one time revenue to Bending Spoons.

30:03Okay. So like the markets, the public markets only expect pretty good growth. And actually it's, you get a great deal. You actually don't have to grow at 2021 rates to get really high multiples, but you've got to grow. This will help you triangulate the buckets. It's huge premium for growth. If for some reason, even after this year, you think being profitable is enough, it may be if you're bootstrapped and you're making a lot of money and put it in your own pocket, if you're Valve or someone like that, and you're bootstrapped and you just bought yourself a$500 million yacht last month, more power to you, right?

30:37I don't know whether it really matters how much steam and valve grow when you're making$4 billion in profit a year, four or 5 billion, six, I mean, you want to grow, but maybe 4 billion in profits enough with 300 employees. Okay, I don't know. But most of us are not like that. We have to grow. And so, listen, a lot of folks had to cut or get fit because their runways were shortened. They can't raise another round for the reason we're talking about. But profitable is not enough unless you're utterly insanely profitable like Zoom. For every dollar Zoom brings in, 50 cents goes to the bottom line.

31:08Okay, pager duty and others don't do that. You've got to grow. And otherwise you're going to be worth 2x like pager duty or 1x like Eventbrite. You don't want to be in that box. You just don't want to be in that box. massive split in valuations. Here's another one that looked good at first. If you didn't dig in, this is from like a week or two ago. Adobe trying to get into the AI game on the marketing side buys SEMrush, SEMrush, because they wanted to be into GEO, LLM optimization. So even though SEMrush is, it's actually Bootstrap, kind of a cool story. Even though they're older, they do have a lot of good instrumentation to sort of series show up in the LLMs and chat GPT and Claude and all that.

31:47And Adobe needs something today because actually 30 % of Adobe's revenue is selling to marketers. It's not Creative Cloud and others. It's the whole marketing, more enterprise side. So they buy them for 1.9 billion. Sounds like a lot, but it's only three times the next 12 months sales, even with a huge premium. This is the pale, because when you buy a public company nine times out of 10, you have to pay higher than the public stock price or most folks won't sell. Like even with Eventbrite selling at 1x today, I think it was still like a 50 or 60 % premium that Benning's Spoon said to me. Otherwise people just won't, they won't fill in their proxy form or sign the deal.

32:19So even with Adobe paying a huge premium, it's only 3X revenue. No, we don't want to sell for 3X revenue guys. Okay. We don't want to do it. So there's just a split in valuation for growth. Can let me summarize a couple other things. And, um, I know this scene might seem obvious to some folks, but I still think 90 % of folks don't get this. Even if maybe don't get it. That is the wrong thing. Maybe they want to believe something that isn't quite true that they want to believe folks I've talked to here today and yesterday. They get it. They're here. They're obsessed with AI from B2B. And, um,

33:01they're a little behind. They didn't build gamma or repli or, or whatnot. and they want to build a co-pilot. They want to build a little AI that makes your product better. And listen, those are great. And all of us should have a co-pilot. I personally, honestly, if there is a B2B app and I can't talk to the app and solve my problems, if I have to like figure it out from a clunky UX or like a help menu, I don't even want to use those apps to 125. I want to talk to the app. I want the app to tell me how to use it and be better. But I'm not going to pay you two or three times as much because you have a cool co-pilot or a nice chat.

33:34That's not enough. it's not enough. Like AI features don't count. They're necessary, but not sufficient to grow. And we just, I don't want to pick on PagerDuty, but 500 million, only worth a billion. Look at PagerDuty's website right now if you want PagerDuty.com. It says AI all over it. They've got AI monitoring, AI uptime monitoring, AI this, AI that. It don't matter. Unless you're replacing a large part of DevOps humans with AI, it doesn't count because there's no extra budget. So where is this budget coming from at the end of the day? I break it up into three groups. And which one are you?

34:10A co-pilot is none of them. A feature alone is none of them. Where do you get this budget? The part that Gartner is talking about. Replacing humans. It's brutal, but true. You know, two things took off quickly in AI. Software development, we all know Cursor at a billion and all the rest. We could talk about it if we want. But also, if for some reason you don't follow it, you probably do. Contact center blew up. Support. You know, the existing investors, Zendesk re-accelerated even though it's private. Sierra went from nothing to$100 million in one year. Decagon, lots of others. Intercom was just here.

34:44Finn, their AI product's at$100 million right after the company growth. So we just took them the chief product officer today. And is it because the AI is cool? No, honestly, they're cutting half their support teams. You know, Mark Benioff said even at Salesforce, they're growing. They're adding more headcount in sales and marketing. But I think he's, I know the numbers, I think three or 4 ,000 folks in support, they already replaced with AI and their own AI and support Condeasian Force, but that's thousands of humans. Now they reskilled some and moved them into other apartments and moved around the head count.

35:14Salesforce is investing. That's a lot of change. Okay. And people didn't buy this AI support software because it was cool or because it was a co-pilot. They bought it to get rid of head count. And that is going to accelerate next year. And there's, if you can, if you can get rid of a hundred million effect, there's probably room for a couple hundred thousand dollars a year of your tool. Okay. Two, and these are different. If you truly augment humans dramatically, I should have put dramatically in the color, not, not augment humans dramatically. You know, I don't know how many folks here use cursor.

35:49Okay. Now for similar, right? I mean, I'm more, I'm not that I'm not technical enough. I use Replit, but it makes you so much more effective. So much more effective. If you guys haven't used any sort of vibe-coding tool or cursor or for non-technical folks, rapid or lovable or something, you might not get it. Even in May, when we were at SaaS for Annual, the idea was, oh, I'll make my developers 30 % more productive with these tools. Like, okay, I'll spend a couple hundred bucks a month, maybe 500 bucks a month, and they'll magically be more productive. They'll just create more features. and there's truth but it's much more than that like if you're deep on cursor or other tools you're never going back it fundamentally changes the way we build software like cursor and all these other tools are up in level have ingested every piece of open source and probably a lot of closed source software if they have all of it so anything you want to build that has been built before can be built in minutes or moments so i don't know if you're yesterday i yesterday morning I built a game called VaporSale.ai.

36:58Try it right now. It's super cool. It's got cool music. You sell a product that should exist, but doesn't. You've got to convince prospects to buy something that's AI and trendy, but it doesn't work. It's kind of a fun little game. I mean, I built this in one hour. I actually built it in less. And why? Because honestly, it's just stealing someone else's code. It's got a fresh skin on it. I gave it the right prompts and the right ideas, but it's already in the code. And so why would anyone go back to like writing this code from scratch? Like you had to do a year ago. You wouldn't write. So this is radically augmenting humans, these types of tools.

37:35I mean, you, you know, yourself, even if you don't chat, GVT or cloud, you're not going back, right? You're not going back. So, but this is radical augmentation. Or three, an incredible level of productivity. So when we, when we talk about our stack, we talk about a bunch of these, but like, and I don't mean to keep going back to the well, but like we use gamma to make all our sales collateral instead of Google slides or PowerPoint. It's not like a little bit better. Like in five minutes, it pulls all of our data from our CRM and otherwise, and knows everything about the prospect. And it creates a beautiful dynamic presentation, completely customized to them in five minutes.

38:09And we pay a hundred bucks a month. That's like one of the best deals on planet earth. We're not going back. But most folks, classics, they're just not going that far. They're only making their products better. I'm sorry. That was enough in the old days. It ain't enough. You've got, this is where the budget is. It's not enough for AI to make your product better. You got to replace humans, turn us into like cyborgs. I guess I'm going to rename section two cyborgs. I'm human AI hybrid and quad or replet. Maybe even Harvey, arguably we're hybrids, right? We work together. More insane productivity.

38:48Order of magnitude, more productivity for. Honestly, sit down and ask yourself, are these the tools you built this year or did they just make your product nicer? If you did, if you've spent this whole year building AI tools for your BD product and you didn't see any additional growth, I bet you're in the fourth bullet and not, and not the first three. Okay. Another way to think about this. Maybe this is my penultimate point. People call this a super cycle. VCs call it a super cycle. Why is this a super cycle? This is an important point. I've talked about this a couple times in the 20VC pod that we're going to do live in about an hour.

39:33But this is why you've got to be in market with an AI product A &B because everyone's in market at the same time. So why did SaaS blow up in 2020 and 2021? right it wasn't just that for a few months everyone worked at home okay it wasn't just that because half the u.s economy was essential workers half of the folks still had the same jobs they still went to starbucks they still went to the hospital and they still did all these things and that ended in a lot of red states by the end of the year okay i was split i don't know about you in 2020 i was split between blue and red okay i'm not political okay up in the barry it was it was like a sci-fi post-apocalyptic thing.

40:17Half the time, because of family reasons, I lived in Orange County in Southern California. It was like, didn't that happen? People were playing, taking school buses. They were eating inside in restaurants, even though it wasn't even allowed. But what happened wasn't just this. It was what drove a thing where everyone who was in market at once, every enterprise decided they needed these tools. Every enterprise, there was so much change. They needed a contact center where you didn't have to come to work for a while. They needed e-signatures. They needed zooming was the most crazy one. They needed all of it.

40:47And what happened was instead of the traditional 5 % to 6 % of prospects being in market a month, which is a way a lot of marketers think about things, right? I'm going to try to reach everyone in my universe, but the only 20 % are really in my ICP. And of that 20%, maybe 4 % to 5 % to 6 % are in market, right? So if you start doing the math, you're lucky if 1 % of your list, your database actually is going to buy this year, right? Because you think about how many folks are in market. because if your tools are working great, it might take five or eight years to even decide to switch them out. Back when I was at Adobe and we moved to Salesforce, it took Adobe five years just to move to Salesforce, a big company.

41:27How long would it take you? They're never moving off, but if you were going to move off, it would be like a decade, right? So folks were rarely in market, but in 2020 and 2021, everyone was in market. Now it's happening again with AI. And some of it is productivity, but a lot of it is just, you know this from your customers, CIOs on down have a massive initiative to drive, to bring AI innovation to the company and have massive productivity gains. And so everyone's in the market, but you've got to be a need, a need. And I just kind of wrote this up to myself. I need, we've heard this today. So many sessions, so many folks I've talked to, they need an AI GTM tool.

42:00Do they really need it? Will their companies die without it? No, but they want a clay or qualifier artist or other folks you've talked to. They need it. They'll find it. They want to bring this tool and I need it. I need AI support. We talked about it. I need AI legal review. I need AI coding. I need AI security. Not only a rubric in Instagram, we had a keto security this morning that's blowing up because they need this for AI. So are you this? Are you one of the categories of products that buyers feel right or wrong? Just like maybe we didn't really need all these products during 2020 and 21.

42:33The world, with hindsight, was more normal than we thought. But do they feel like they need this product right now? If not, you're not going to get any budget. So how do you see I need this for AI? That's what you've got to build in the first half of next year so you don't become obsolete.

42:54Another couple points why some of the best ones are blowing up and why others are struggling. The best B2B AI enables TAM expansion. TAM expansion. So a lot of those public companies, they've reached ham saturation, often because they're only single product or double product. They don't really have a suite. They can't build as much as Datadog. They can't build 12 products or 20 products. They've saturated. They've gotten to double digits of their market. But because the best AI products do so much more, they can charge more. So Gamut,$100 to see, which our PowerPoint AI tool, like$100 is not that much money compared to a lot of insurance, but it's a lot more than Google Slides or Canva, which are basically free.

43:40We already pay for G Suite. It's free. You may already pay for Office. That's free. Can you get everything for like$9, okay? And we're still paying$100 a month. That's a lot more too. Cursor at all, Cursor, all the rest, Windsurf, all these other tools. It's so much. Think about it for a minute. Atlassian got incredibly successful selling Jira and other products for five bucks a month with discounts to folks at companies. Now folks will spend$400, in some cases$5 ,000 on Cursor. That's why it goes to a billion. It's so much TAM expansion. It is so much more than a project management tool or a bug tracking tool.

44:24It is so much more TAM by that productivity. And we've talked almost ad nauseum here about AIS, DRs, and VDRs. These products ain't all cost a lot more than one seed themselves of HubSpot or one seed of Salesforce or one seed of Zoho CRM. I mean, do you know any CRM that costs 50K to 100K a year? I'm slightly exaggerating. It's not really one seed. But these guys are blowing up because the products unlock huge TAM expansion. huge cam expansion by replacing a lot of humans a lot of sdr and none of these guys would be remotely as successful if they had to charge like traditional sas companies you know if all these folks out here had to charge five bucks a month like notion they wouldn't be here well some of them they couldn't afford to be here they couldn't afford to fly anybody out or come out here because of tam expansion and so this is the way the game has changed and so if your co-pilot isn't really letting you charge more for your product.

45:23It's not because your sales team isn't good enough or your product marketing. You don't have the right gerunds and vowels and colors on your website or the right fonts. It's because you added so much value that you unlock so much TAM. So much TAM. Some of these guys, their software is better than you, but it's not like they're so much better at sales and marketing than you. They just unlock so much TAM. So you've got to be honest. does your AI product for 2026 enable you to charge five times or more than what you're charging today? And earn it. Not shove it down people's throats, but earn it. Earn it.

46:01That's the unlock here. Charging for your co-pilot that no one wants. Microsoft learned no one wanted to pay an extra$20 a month to talk to Word. Okay? That was a great innovation. And even Microsoft couldn't get people to buy that. Okay? It doesn't work. No one wants a mediocre co-pilot. And a couple more points. I'm talking about 2026, because even though, listen, you guys all get a pass. We all get a pass. But even though some folks are getting D-minuses or Cs for this year, I'm sorry to be direct. I'm just trying to be helpful with love. It's all said with love. There isn't infinite time. But there's still time.

46:38We are early here. I don't know if we can all catch Cursor. Okay. Might be a little late. But there is time. I picked two examples. Clio, Jack Newton, old disaster OG from the beginning, legal tech. Really, they added FinTech into work for him and they raised a$3 billion. And then they added AI to their product in the last year in legal, for legal case management,$5 billion. Founded in 2008. 2008. Gal, I've talked to her too much, but founded in 2020. Didn't really work before AI. now a hundred million and with just 15 employees. And there are a few of you who probably no one here, you wouldn't have come.

47:20There are a few of us in the broader SaaS community that have already lost to so-called AI native folks. You've lost the game. Woe is us. I don't think it's true for most folks. You have time. You don't have infinite time, but it's early. It is early. What I can tell you, the Salesforce team is here with Asianforce. what I've learned and, and, uh, is that learned it from Mark and lots of others is like, yeah, there's a segment of Salesforce's 44 billion of AR or whatever they're at that needs these tools tomorrow. But a lot of the traditional industries haven't even started, right? For I'm not telling you to go buy public stocks, but I'd be long on Salesforce, even if the market wasn't true this year, because it's just getting going with the spike.

48:02The demand is just getting going. So find, Like don't go and directly compete with the folks that already get a couple hundred million this year, unless you know you're on a better engineering team than them, but so much of this is still early. So many folks are found their wind this year. This should be you next year. It is not too late, but eventually if you don't catch up with your agentic product, with your native AI product, and you don't catch up next year, your direct competitors will, and then you will lose market share. You will lose market share. And the one thing, the honest thing to ask yourself, and if your founder is maybe not even to share with below your management team.

48:39At the end of each year, you have to be honest. Did we gain or lose market share this year? Did we gain or lose market share this year? Even if you grew 50 % this year, if your competitor grew 100 % and you're at the same AR, sorry, you lost this year. Okay. Did you gain market share? Every year that's important, but in the world of AI, it's even more important because it can sneak up on you. Be honest. There was one startup I worked with that has just crossed a hundred million. Pretty good year, pretty good AI product. Couple of quarters ago, they started deleting the competition slide from their board deck.

49:12Where in the first, first time it was a hidden slide, you know, went from shown to hidden slides and then it disappeared. Why they weren't gaining share anymore. Okay. Now I've kind of gave the CEO a pass. I brought it up between me. I wouldn't bring it up in front of the team. If you're not honest about gaining share, you won't gain it next year. You'll lose it in today's world. So ask yourself honestly, figure out who your direct competition is. Find a way to track your share. Figure out their era. Figure out their growth. Go on the internet. Figure out every metric you can find out. Number of customers.

49:44Scrape it. Use tools. Even if you have to use web traffic as a crummy proxy. But make sure in the age of AI you are gaining share and don't hide behind it if you're not.

49:59Okay, maybe a couple other paradoxes and then we really will wrap. This is just a trend to think about as we, for 2026, it's complicated. Leaner teams are real. Now Gamma just said, I'm not, I'm going to Gamma, but I just noticed in the last, you know, 2 billion valuation, 100 million ARR, 50 employees, Lovable and Replit, both under 100 employees per se, I think. It's a little bit confusing, but whether they're under 100 anymore, they were under 100, they'll be under 300. These are very lean teams, but some of them have 100 % inbound, dramatic demand, and no sales team. So if you have no marketing costs and no need for a sales team temporarily, and you have one product, you can actually be pretty lean.

50:46One product, no sales team, no marketing expense. It is easier to be a little lean than a traditional B2B company. But everyone is getting leaner. And this isn't about layoffs or just getting more profitable. Because as we just talked about with PagerDuty and Slow Growth, just being profitable isn't enough. It's not going to give you, you know, selling for one times your revenue is not worth it. You've all worked too hard to sell your companies for one times revenue. So this isn't just about getting fit. 2022 and 2023 was about getting fit because now you can say this without getting your head cut off.

51:20We were way too, we were, we had way too many employees running around in 2021 doing nothing. We had too, way too many marketers spending 90 days doing an infographic. Okay. We just were, everyone was bloated. Okay. Everyone was bloated. There's a million things going on now. Some of it is replacing humans with AI. Some of it is, is other things, but we're just all going to get leaner and leaner and leaner in in terms of employees, ARR per employee. It's not gonna reverse itself. There is no trend to reverse itself. So the new guys are getting more efficient, but everybody is essentially getting much more efficient.

51:54What there's a little too much chart going on on the right. It's showing up more in early stage companies and late stage companies where there's more boat, but it's still happening. And then just briefly, I don't wanna go too much into this cause we've had a lot of time. I guess I didn't need the whole hour, But a weird thing being, this is just this term on the right. I've talked a little bit about it before, but it's something important to not be too, not accidentally be arrogant about or pat yourself on the back. Yes, are a lot of AI companies burning a lot on tokens, burning a lot on inference, burning a lot on AI?

52:33Yes. But, but their burn multiples are lower than traditional companies because they're growing so quickly. Now, you've got to keep that wheel going. But if, oh my God, you're like, oh, you can make fun of this AI strap. Those guys burn a million bucks a month on inference, okay? That's not sustainable. Their margins are 40%. Yeah, but if they added 50 million of ARR, it's wildly efficient. Okay, if they slow to 10%, you get crushed. But another almost paradox, the fastest growing AI companies are burning more AI and their gross margins are lower, but their burn multiples are also lower because they're adding so much revenue.

53:10It's worth it. It's worth it to win this AI war, at least for the next couple of years. And here's two versions of this. Here's HubSpot and Salesforce. Obviously, probably every single person in this room uses HubSpot or Salesforce, so I picked them. Since 2021, this is their efficiency ratio, their revenue per employee. HubSpot up 2.6x, even Salesforce up 2.2x. Microsoft, old Microsoft has passed peak employee and is coming down. Not only is Microsoft's efficiency going down, its absolute number of headcount is going down and trending down. I mean, it can't go down to zero. I mean, Microsoft's a pretty big company.

53:47It's not just the startups. It's not just gammas and cursors. Everyone is getting radically more efficient. And what that all means, how you all do it, I don't know. But this is not, again, this is not about layoffs and it's not just about agents. This is just how we're building software today. We're building it radically more efficient. and honestly, the toughest thing, the most honest thing I can tell you for 2026 is if you're going to 2026 and you still have folks on your team, and I still see this at startups, and you want them to double next year and they need to triple their team, move on from that executive.

54:21If they want to double next year and they need to increase their team 50%, sounds good to me, okay? I'm still in too many conversations where the excuses I hear from CROs, from CPOs, from CMOs is I just don't have enough headcount. like these are companies that are not that efficient they're not running out of money they're not that efficient and why aren't you growing quicker well i need another 100 people i need another 200 people i need another 40 product managers and another another 30 people on the marketing team just kindly thank them give them a package and move on for them it's not the world that is the past they're still living in the past so my summary and then we will break the growth is there gardner says it's gonna be record software spend next year almost record total IT record software spend and reacceleration.

55:05It's going 50 % faster next year. Software spend. That is an epic amount of dollars to go capture. Hundreds of billions of dollars going into software. There's hundreds of billions of new revenue. Can't you get a little bit of a hundred billion? You don't need all a hundred billion. You just need like some millions. It really is surrounding it. So the dollars are there. This is the best of times, but not for all of us. It was the best of times for almost everybody in 20 and 2021. Almost everybody. It really was. You just needed a CRM, a call center, a support desk, an e-signature tool, and you were a genius.

55:48It's only for the AI beneficiaries. So guys in 2026, B1, thank you.

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