How to Make Sure AI Doesn’t Take Your Job, Planning a Guys’ Trip, and When to Take on Debt

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1:24Today, we've got two great listener questions lined up. And then after the break, we've got the Reddit hotline. Still not a fucking sponsor. Reddit. Hello, Reddit. Call me where we pull questions straight from Reddit and we'll start pulling from another platform soon if they don't give daddy some Benjamins. If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to officehoursofprop2media.com. That's officehoursofprop2media.com. Or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature you in our next episode. What a thrill.

1:58By the way, I don't go to it because they say some people mean things to me and it bums me out because I like Reddit. And I'm desperate for strangers approval. Kind of pathetic. Kind of pathetic. Anyways, first question. Hey, Prof G. You've mentioned before that AI won't necessarily take our jobs, but rather people who know how to use AI will. But I've been seeing more examples lately that make me question that. For instance, Shopify's CEO recently said that any new roles at the company need to prove they can't be done by AI before they get approved. Basically, if AI can do it, they're not hiring for it.

2:42So as much as I want to believe that AI isn't taking jobs, it feels like there's growing evidence that it actually is. What's your take? Has your thinking evolved on this? Appreciate you taking the time. That's an interesting question. And also, I just want to acknowledge that there's some truth to what you're saying. Shopify CEO Toby Leckie told employees in a memo that they need to prove that they cannot get what they want done using AI before looking to hire new employees. Shopify ended 2024 with a headcount of 8 ,100, down from 8 ,300 a year earlier. The company laid off 14 % of its workforce in 2022 and laid off 20 % the following year.

3:24The stock has up nearly 21 % in the past year. I don't think that's AI. I think they probably just overhired during COVID like most of the tech companies. No one in tech has been spared. Last year, over 150 ,000 employees were laid off in the technology industry alone. This year, Meta expects to have AI that can function as a mid-level engineer, which probably sent shivers down the spine of prospective employees. And I hate to admit this, but Musk sort of inspired this race. And that was the following. He basically maintained a minimum viable product on Twitter with 80 % fewer employees. So essentially, the entire tech market stood up and paid attention.

4:05And then you had what was probably the seminal earnings call of the last 10 years. And that was, Mattis Mark Zuckerberg said, we increased revenues 23 % while reducing our headcount 20%. That's never happened before. Think of what GLP-1 drugs do. They switch off the signal in your brain that you need to eat more. And the signal to every CEO's brain when they're growing is I need to hire more. That's just, okay, I'm growing. I need more protein in the form of human capital. Basically, AI has been ozempic for the corporate world in that it's turned off the signal that you necessarily need to hire more.

4:36And so a lot of people are saying, well, okay, what if we can do this with AI? I gotta be honest here at Prop G Media, I keep asking, why don't we have this podcast in numerous languages using AI? I'm starting to think that way. But I still hold on to the notion that what's going to happen with every technology, whether it's PCs or automation, there's some short-term damage in terms of job destruction. But the auto industry, which was supposed to be wrecked by automation, had some short-term declines in employment, but we couldn't envision heated seats or car stereos. These companies rip costs out of the basic non-value-add part of the production, make more profits, and then start investing in new models, new dealerships.

5:18you know, basically, or more profitability, which creates cheaper capital such that they can, you know, have, I don't know, more investment, more employees by hiring. I just think that's a natural cycle of business. And while AI will come in to Shopify and reduce, for example, customer services is going to get wrecked. I wouldn't want to be in the business of customer service. I wouldn't actually want to be in, I wouldn't want to be a systems engineer right now because programming is going to get just get so much easier and better. But if I have a vision for new products or new features that require software engineering, which I now have much greater firepower around, I think there'll be a lot more product management jobs.

6:00I think that these companies, I think Shopify is going to get to expand to new regions because they'll have additional profits and be able to scale up faster with AI. As a result, there'll be a shift in skill sets required, but not a shift in, I don't I think, in employment or total employment. I think total employment will grow. That's a dangerous thing to say. But I think the idiocracy vision of the world where we're all, none of us need to work and we're all just sitting on couches watching big screen TVs and getting angry at each other. I don't see that. I think there's still going to be a need and opportunities for people who know how to leverage AI.

6:31Now, specifically, when I said AI is not going to take your job, someone who understands AI is going to take your job. I still think that's the case. I still think if you can figure out a way to understand how AI is going to impact your division and be the person that, quite frankly, understands how to do more with less, I think there's more opportunity for you. I'd hate to be a mediocre real estate lawyer right now, but a good real estate lawyer that understands AI is going to make a lot more money because he or she is going to be able to draft basic documents. but they're still going to need a human to be creative about, you know, the type of leases and negotiating with the landlord and reading the market and all of that good stuff.

7:11I think there's just going to be enormous opportunities here if you understand how to leverage this technology. PCs supposedly were going to put a ton of people out of business. And if you didn't understand PCs, you probably were vulnerable. I think it's just really important. What is my advice here? My advice, especially if you have kids, play with AI with your kids. What I'll do with my youngest is when we have a weekend together, I'll say, okay, let's use AI to come up with the perfect itinerary for fun this weekend. And we describe each other and it's fun and come up with really thoughtful prompts.

7:41And then boom, it comes up with great ideas. I'm using AI all the time, not as a means of creation, but as a means of enhancing my current job, making me better at what I do. So I still kind of holding to my guns here. I think what you're going to see is a continued shift in the economy where skills, education, a basic understanding of technology, creativity, ability to get along with and manage other people, a feel for other nations and cultures. But if you understand AI, I think there's all sorts of opportunities for you to take those additional profits that were saved by AI and come up with new business ideas and new means of growth.

8:20They're lower costs, but still, you maintain your margins because you're more efficient, meaning you can expand the market. But point taken. We'll see. Question number two. Hi, Professor Scott. I'm John from Virginia. and I wanted to submit a question regarding planning meaningful guys trips. I have a tight neck of our friends in our mid to late 20s and like you, we recognize the vital role of a healthy support group for young men in a society that sometimes seems apathetic to our struggles. Although we may not be ballers like you, I wanted to get your two cents of what you think makes a killer guys trip and in a broader sense, how to use the rare opportunity in our busy lives to come away with meaningful contributions to our friendships beyond drinking more and making a series of bad decisions that might pay off, as you often say?

9:10That's a really thoughtful question. I would say the key is yes, or the calendar, and that is just putting something on the calendar. I find that when you go on a trip with your friends, it's really not about the place. It's about the people you bring and just doing it. I'm 50 years old, 60, and I have this sort of group of six or eight fraternity brothers, and we try to get together. I would say our intention is to get together every year. It ends up being every two or three years because life gets in the way. But I think the key is somebody needs to be the ringleader and put a date on the calendar and just try and coordinate and see, you know, who can make it, who can go to Vegas, you know, May, the week of May 1st or whatever.

9:55And just try to, you know, plant a flag in the sand. This is when we're going. Beyond that, I mean, a lot of it's up to your interest. Are you outdoors? You know, are you outdoors people? Are you adventurers? Do you guys like to surf? I used to go surfing, which is basically me holding onto a piece of fiberglass for dear life every year in Brazil. But it was mostly just an excuse to go to Brazil with a group of guys that I like. And now I do a ton of guys trips now. One, I have the money. Two, I just love hanging out with dudes. I'm good at it. I'm, you know, I, I'm, I have a good group of guy friends.

10:28So I don't, I don't know if I have a ton of insight here other than trying to find what you're interested in. It doesn't have to be a lot of money. I used to, from one of my friend's bachelor parties, we went camping. God, that fucking sucked. Dr. David Frey took us camping. I bet that trip cost 50 bucks a person. I hated it. I hated it. I'm not, I'm not a roughet kind of guy, but anyways, you have to decide the economic weight class, but you don't need money for that shit. It's like, save your money to go somewhere nice with your wife or your girlfriend or your boyfriend just because, and also for fucking Disneyland, which will cost you$7 million for two days so you can eat bad food and stay at a three-star hotel and pay 11-star prices.

11:07A little bitter, a little bitter. Just do it. This is an easy one. Just get it on the calendar. The rest will sort itself out. We have one quick break, and when we're back, we're diving into the depths of Reddit.

11:43Thank you.

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13:47Welcome back. We asked and Reddit delivered. Let's bust right into it.

13:54Our Reddit question today comes from Bodega Poet. Ooh, aren't you sexy? That is very special. Hey, Prof G, what are your thoughts on personal debt for business, real estate, or educational pursuits? I learned about personal finance from Dave Ramsey and his principles have resulted in my wife and I to be in our late 30s with no debt beyond our mortgage. We are getting by, but it seems like we will forever be stuck in the middle class. Would you ever advise utilizing debt as leverage to increase your earnings potential, returning to school, borrowing for seed, capital for a business, or buying property?

14:27Thanks for considering my question. Okay, there's no easy way to just summarize debt. Can debt put you in an awful place? Can you apply to a good college and not get in because we as good universities or elite universities take pride in scarcity and manufacturing artificial scarcity such that we can reject people go up in the rankings and raise tuition faster than inflation such that a good kid gets arbed down to a mediocre college that's the same price but doesn't offer the same upside opportunity and we've shamed everyone into believing if they don't get a college degree that the parents and you have failed so you can borrow cheap credit student loans and you can literally borrow a hundred thousand dollars to end up in a job that pays$40 ,000 a year.

15:09Yeah, we've done that. And a lady in a pantsuit with a big logo behind you telling you that you can never go wrong and investing in yourself. Keep in mind, she gets to cash that check. And then you want to talk about how mendacious our society is to come and how much we hate young people. Student debt is one of the few forms of debt that is not dischargeable in bankruptcy. So you literally have a generation, tens if not hundreds of thousands of young kids who go to school. It's not cut out for them. They drop out, but they still get to hold on to their debt. And for the rest of their life, they have this anchor around their neck.

15:39So there are terrible forms of debt. You can get in, you can be house poor. Everyone thinks, again, another one of these tropes are conventional wisdom. When wisdom becomes conventional, it's no longer wisdom that everyone needs to own a home or otherwise you aren't an adult. And sometimes people just get out too far in front of their skis, the market goes down, and they have a$300 ,000 mortgage on a place worth$190 ,000. And that can haunt you the rest of your life. Credit card debt, new offers every day. And you want to lead a good life. You're working hard. You think I deserve this. And the reality is you wake up with$30 ,000 in credit debt.

16:16So there's a lot of bad forms of debt. There's some very good forms of debt. Your ability, if you're buying a house and you can get a good mortgage that is also tax deductible up to a certain amount, that is very attractive debt. It's low interest debt. As long as you're thoughtful about buying a place you can afford. You typically don't want to spend more than 30 or 35 % of your gross or your net income on rent or a mortgage. And also you need to calculate the phantom costs, which people don't want to do, property taxes, maintenance. But if you can finance an asset at five or 6 % and you get to write off part of that, that's what you call good debt.

16:57So good debt can give you leverage. So there's good debt and there's bad debt. I like leases more than debts on cars because you can just hand the car back. And I think the transaction costs of trying and the time and the human capital to try and sell a car is a pain in the ass. So I always like leases. And generally speaking, manufactured sponsored leases sometimes end up with a low interest rate. So this is what you do. How do you discern between good and bad debt? You need a kitchen cabinet. You need someone who will give it to you straight and say, okay, you're going to school or if you want to go to college, you're gonna have to borrow$120 ,000.

17:30What's the average salary of the person graduating from the school? Is it worth it? for the first time in a long time, and this is a tragedy, sometimes the answer is no around college. It's just not worth the money. And even though there's a nice lady or a nice man telling you that you can get student debt, maybe you shouldn't take it. Just having access to debt doesn't necessarily mean you should take it. You need to think about the interest rate. You need to think about the term of the loan. And you need to think about the incremental bump it's going to give you. When you buy a house, houses typically go up throughout history 4 % to 6 % a year.

18:00Well, okay, If you can get leverage on something, if you can borrow 80 % and it goes up 4%, then effectively, you're getting, you know, 15 or 20 % return on your equity capital. That's the down payment. That's good debt if it's a low interest rate, right? So what do you need? You need someone who understands finance in your kitchen cabinet. You need to be very careful around debt. And you need to always ask yourself, is this good debt? Is this good debt? What is the interest rate? All credit card debt is bad debt. Sometimes you want to take out debt to get rid of debt. Sometimes you want to take out a home equity line at 8 % to pay off your 18 % credit card debt.

18:38So sometimes you want to use debt to pay off other debt. There are real, there's real nuance here and you need someone who understands debt. But the key question is not whether debt is good or bad. It's whether this is good debt versus bad debt. And for that, you need people to understand your situation. We'll give it to you straight. But in general, you want to be very, you know, it just fucking breaks my heart. this buy now, pay later on burritos. So I can now finance a burrito. If you need to finance your coffee or burrito, that is bad debt because they will figure out a way to charge you more.

19:08And if you're late on your payments, huge, hugely punitive penalties. I think I read an article saying, you know, these BNPL companies have now figured out a way to sell you a hundred dollar burrito. I think when you're at the counter of a specialty retailer going to Coachella and you get automatic of credit that says, oh, you want to spend$400 instead of$200? Ask yourself, okay, if I don't have the money right now, is this a really good idea? Is the incremental outfit at Coachella going to pay off? I mean, there's different types of payoff. You might look fabulous. You might look fabulous. But I think generally speaking, in consumption, you don't want to go into debt.

19:42You want to use debt kind of only for things that might grow in value. Another thing that's just so sad. 40 % of Americans have medical or dental debt. How can we be in the most prosperous nation when almost one in two households have the burden of medical debt? That's the kind of debt you can't avoid. You don't have the money. Someone gets sick. By the way, we should absolutely lower the age for Medicare from 65 by two years every year and then boom, in 30 years, you have socialized or nationalized medicine. We're the only G7 country that doesn't have it. It's an absolute tax parasite in our society.

20:16Sure, there's probably some additional innovation, but it's just not worth it. And that would give us the chance to slowly but surely let the industrial complex that makes huge amounts of money off of people suffering in debt give them time to adjust. Anyway, it's not what you asked. It's not whether debt is good or bad. It's what type of debt. You need someone to help you discern good debt from bad debt. Thanks very much for the question. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at proptmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at proptmedia.com.

20:46Or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit, and we just might feature it in our next Reddit hotline segment.

21:05This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez. Our intern is Dan Chalon. Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Prof G Markets pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.

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