Is AI Killing Entry-Level Jobs? And Why Senior Care Is Booming

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1:23Welcome to Office Hours with Prov G. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question for next time, you can send a voice recording to officehoursofproptmedia.com. Again, that's officehoursofproptmedia.com. Or post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit, and we just might feature it in our next episode. First question. Our first question comes from Jonah Klein on LinkedIn. Jonah says, it seems clear to me that a big part of the reason for the dearth of entry and junior level positions has to do with AI taking over much of the corporate grunt work that used to comprise much of what entry level roles did.

1:58At some point, corporations are going to have to figure out who will be their future leaders if they aren't hiring entry-level talent. What do you make of this? And what do you think entry-level roles will look like for recent college grads in an AI-driven corporate environment? So new graduates now account for just 7 % of new hires of big tech. That's down from 25 % in 2023 and over 50 % pre-pandemic, according to Forbes. So big tech has dramatically reduced new hires. Early evidence suggests hiring for junior workers is already declining in AI-exposed fields. A Stanford study found entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations fell about 13 % relative to less exposed jobs since generative AI adoption started to take off.

2:38The decline is concentrated among workers aged 22 to 25, while employment for more experienced workers in the same occupation remained stable or grew. The problem, as you referenced, AI is most capable of automating the tasks traditionally assigned to junior employees. There's some research here on large corporations. Models suggest around 80 percent of the workforce could have at least 10 percent of tasks affected by AI with knowledge work tests, including writing, coding and analysis, especially exposed. However, you know, really, the labor the labor market does not just reflect the the, you know, job apocalypse that it was supposedly we were worried was going to happen.

3:19There just hasn't, it's not easy to really find large-scale job licenses from AI. What I think you see is AI paralysis, kind of no hire, no fire. What's interesting, the most interesting thing about the labor market right now is one of the, I forget what the term is, but people looking for another job is at an all-time low. People are thinking, oh, maybe I'll just stick here. Employment remains relatively resilient, suggesting AI is currently changing how work is done more than the total number of jobs, though hiring appears to be slowing. So people are asking you to be more productive with AI.

3:48and saying we're not going to hire as many people next year, but they're not laying off people yet. Research suggests the first rung of the corporate ladder may shift or I should actually, I should condition that. There is some layoffs. There are some layoffs in big tech. They're the early adopters of AI. I think a lot of that is over hiring from the pandemic. But when you lay off people, there's sort of a false flag going on around layoffs right now. If you lay off people, it's not because our business has slowed down or I'm a fucking idiot and over hired during pandemic. like, it's, oh, AI, right?

4:17We're leveraging new technology because I'm so smart and my stock will go up if I say we're going to be more productive because I can reduce 10 % of the workforce and not lose any productivity because I know how to master AI as opposed to saying we overhired or, you know, our business is not, we're projecting business is not going to be that strong. So a lot of people are blaming AI and it may not actually be accurate. So employment remains relatively resilient, suggesting AI currently changing how work is done more than the total number of jobs, as we said, although, again, hiring does appear to be slowing.

4:46Research suggests the first rung of the corporate ladder may shift toward AI supervised analyst, juniors validating and interpreting AI outputs, higher skill starting roles, fewer hires with more technical expectations, and skill-based hiring, greater emphasis on practical AI literacy rather than just degrees. So this all kind of leads to what you should do. First and foremost, buck up. When I graduated from business school in 2002, 1992, 40 % of us had jobs on graduation day, which meant the majority, we're at commencement with our parents, you know, wearing the cap and gown and the majority of us didn't have jobs.

5:29So this, and quite frankly, the younger generation is just used to people three or four years ahead of them having three or four offers of JP Morgan and Google. Yeah, it's gotten a little bit tougher, but it's still not bad. Youth unemployment is about 10%, which is kind of historically an average, if you will. Two, be AI-enabled. Any interview, you should be able to answer essentially three questions and now a fourth. What's different about you? How does it apply that differentiation to being able to be good here? And how do you work on that differentiation? And then the fourth thing you need to ask is, how do you think AI is going to impact this job.

6:07And specifically, you have to demonstrate AI literacy as it relates to that job. If you want to be in brand management at Estee Lauder, you've got to be able to communicate, this is how I've been using different LLMs to think about product launches or new product development or how we make your media budget at Estee Lauder more impactful. No one says that we're not going to hire that person. They seem to understand a lot about AI. No one ever says that. So you need to add that to your toolkit, if you will. Interview as many places as possible. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. And recognize no one's coming to save you.

6:40You have to get a job. I mean, and what I will say that the economy is now where it has been for 99 % of the world for 99 % of history. And that is you have to go get a job. No one's coming for you. And also just recognize you can absolutely add value to a company and you're confident. But ask yourself before you go into the interview, what's different about me? Why does that differentiation matter to a company like this? what do I do to work on and establish and maintain that differentiation and also find a way to incorporate into your rap how your AI literacy and AI domain expertise will impact your ability to add value to that organization.

7:20Thanks for the question. Question number two comes from N. Williams, 7-32 on Reddit. They say, Hey, Prop G, I'm curious if you're looking at the senior healthcare space from an investment perspective. The way I see it, we have a growing demographic of people over 65 with the majority of wealth in the U.S. and rising life expectancies. Would love to hear your thoughts on the validity of this thesis, potential impact on society, and if you think the space is positioned well for investment. Oh, yeah. Disco. I read a thing on which companies have the highest failure and highest success rate. Clubs and restaurants have a 10 % success rate.

8:00and the number one most successful business were like 94 % was senior care. And this goes to one of my big themes that I tell my kids. You have ROI on the Y-axis. You have sex appeal, sexier businesses on the X-axis. The line goes firmly and squarely down to the right as you go along the X-axis. Sexier the business, lower the return on your financial and human capital. You want to own a restaurant, a jewelry line, a club, going to sports, entertainment, Hollywood, anything that sounds cool, you better mean the top 10, if not the top 1 % right away, because there's an overabundance. There's an overinvestment in human capital, meaning the returns are starched out.

8:39You want to start a SaaS company offering maintenance for healthcare workers that maintain x-ray machines? Disco. That business is going to show a great ROI. The top half of tax lawyers make really good living. So top half of actors are unemployed. The senior space is really unattractive. We don't like to be around seniors, right? They smell funny. Or you go into a place of senior's home and you think, this isn't where I want to hang out. And guess what? It's actually a very rewarding job. So anyways, senior centers, senior care, fucking amazing business. So the market, Peter Jucker, who's one of my role models from a professional standpoint, said every major shift in the economy or successful businesses are basically driven by demographics.

9:26So the U.S. population of people 65 plus reached 61.2 million in 2024. The census projects one in five Americans will be over 65 by 2030. The fastest growing and most care intensive group is the 85 plus population. People are living really... I read that the fastest growing cohort in America are people over the age of 100 because there never used to be any of them. And now there's going to be a lot of them projected to grow from 6.5 million, this is people over 85 in 2022, to 13.7 million by 2040. So in just 18 years, the number of people over the age of 85 is going to double. And that's from the U.S.

10:06Department of Health and Human Services. So another 6.5 million people. If you're over 85, you need care of some sort, either a live-in or special services or someone dropping by or just specific niche services. So that industry is going to double over the next decade and a half. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, CMS, seniors account for a disproportionate share of healthcare spending. The average annual healthcare spending for someone aged over 65 is about$22 ,000 per year. That's roughly two and a half times higher than working age adults. I bet it's more than that.

10:38But think about it. This market doubled the number of people and they spent$22 ,000 a year on healthcare. Medicare spending continues to expand with the aging population. Medicare spending reached about$1.1 trillion in 2024, growing 7 % to 8 % year over year. The financing layer around senior healthcare is also expanding. More seniors are getting their Medicare coverage through private insurance companies rather than the traditional government-run Medicare program. Medicare Advantage enrolled reached about 35 million people in 2026, meaning more than half of eligible seniors are now in Medicare Advantage plans.

11:14The labor market reflects this. So the Bureau of Labor and Statistics projects that home health and personal care jobs will grow 17 % through 2034, one of the fastest growing occupations in the U.S. So the demographic shift here is real. America is aging rapidly, and the most care intensive the population is 85 plus. So the addressable market is set to double. By the way, growth is everything. When I go, I was in Zermatt and it was fresh snow and went out and I thought, oh, I'm a pretty good skier. And then the snow got shitty and froze. And then it reminded me, okay, no, I'm not. I'm a shitty skier.

11:53When you're in a growth market, it's fresh powder and you can just be very good without being very good. And that is you'd rather be average in a growing market than great in a declining market. Because quite frankly, the wins are just in your sales. So a business servicing people over the age of 85, disco, and I'm talking John Travolta disco, not like Casey and the Sunshine Band. Actually, I love Casey and the Sunshine Band. Anyways, if you want to start a business servicing people over the age of 85, champagne and cocaine, my brother. And the champagne is, none of your friends are going to want to do it because they don't want to be around old people.

12:32So there's a lack of investment from human capital. You can raise money because private equity and venture capital firms smell money around this population. And God, I'd love to put together that deck. My adjustable market is about to double in the next 15 years. In sum, the big winners will likely be the companies that help the system care for older Americans, specifically 85 plus at lower costs and outside the hospital. Outside the hospital where costs are huge. And quite frankly, the longer, the more time you spend it. No one says, oh, you know, I'd be more comfortable in the hospital. People don't want to be in the hospital.

13:05I do think that's going to be, I think there's going to be, I wrote a book called Post-Corona. One of my big things was dispersion, dispersion of work to homes, dispersion of education to computers. Also, I think there's going to be a huge dispersion of healthcare. I think the percentage of people who die at home, if you will, is going to explode. When my mom was sick, I said, okay, it sounds like we got about six months here. What's on your bucket list? And she said, I have two things. I want to go see my family in England. We need to do that sooner rather than later because I'm obviously not feeling very well.

13:34But she said, more than anything, I just I want to I want to pass it home. And so this is nine. This is 2004. And quite frankly, it wasn't easy. I had resources and I'm creative and I was able to take time off of a leave from NYU. So I was able to orchestrate it. But it's not easy. a lot. That's another one. 85 plus and helping people stay at home as long as possible. I think it's going to be an enormous business in some. It's a great fucking idea. It's a great idea. And lowest or highest success rate of any small business, SeniorCare. We'll be right back after a quick break.

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16:31Welcome back. Question number three. Hi, Scott. New listener here as a result of your most recent appearance on Modern Wisdom, and I'm a big fan of what I've heard so far. Congratulations on your success and keep up the good work. I recently left my consulting career at the beginning of this year to join my dad and uncle as a financial advisor on their team, but after about a year in the role, I'm second-guessing my decisions and career choices in general. I realize I'm coming into a great situation joining my family's advisory team. However, I can't stop thinking about the long-term viability of being a financial advisor, given the development of AI and how I think it will soon be able to perform the role of an advisor just as well as a human can if it's not able to already.

17:17Additionally, I don't find the work engaging and am not a fan of working with clients. I'm 30 years old and not afraid to make career changes and start over, but do you have any advice for someone that feels like they're not accomplishing their potential in terms of work and has concerns for the longevity of the career they're currently in? Thanks. Thanks for the question. It sounds like you're not happy. And when you're young, your benchmark is college and the kind of fantasy that work is amazing and fun that is or the myth that is told to you by people, your university and people. And so work is work.

17:58And what I would say is you need to give work at least one or two years to see if it gets better. But if you really just are dreading work and you're there because you want to impress or you felt some pressure from your family, just have an open and honest conversation with your dad and your uncle and people you trust saying, I don't know if I'm like this, which makes me believe I'm not going to be very good at it. And I'm wondering if I should consider something else. And also, is there a different role within the company? in terms of, I think you're trying to backfill. It sounds to me, if I listen to your voice, you sound a bit down and you're trying to backfill.

18:34And I might be wrong here, but my sense is you're trying to backfill reasons for why you should leave. And AI is not one of them because financial advisors, to a certain extent, our tax code keeps getting more and more complicated. I'm spending more and more money on financial advice. Now, do I use my financial advisors at Goldman to come up with my stock picks and balance my portfolio? No. But I use them for tax planning, which has gotten incredibly, incredibly complicated. I use my folks at Northern Trust to find me mortgages, liquidity. I mean, the financial advisory services or wealth management at Goldman and JP Morgan are growing.

19:13And I think that my guess is the industry is growing because it keeps getting more complicated. Now, AI will be able to say, okay, here's how you balance a portfolio. But financial services is oftentimes basically almost like senior care in terms of finances. And those people don't want to, they want you to understand AI and they want you to give them a sense of security and they want you to figure out the estate. Yeah, most of this stuff you can probably answer with AI, but they want someone to tell them and they want someone to make recommendations. And so I don't, you know, the number of accountants, accounting is being destroyed by AI, but accountants are actually growing in number because they're moving upstream into wealth planning and tax strategies and inheritance.

19:56And a lot of people, I speak, or you speak every year, the UBS young leaders thing, which is basically rich kids. You know, everyone, it's all these famous names. It's like, oh, your father started Bloomberg and now you're a billionaire and they bring them in for two days to talk about philanthropy and being a responsible citizen and how you manage money, there's going to be a lot of succession planning. And quite frankly, people don't know how to do it. I have no, I am still confused around the relationship between my money and my kids and their happiness. Do I give them money? If so, how much and when?

20:24And how do I do it tax efficiently? And who do I need as a trustee? And what are the tax implications? And these are big issues that AI can kind of give you some ideas on, but people are still going to want to meet with someone. So anyways, bottom line is, I don't buy AI is going to destroy the industry, so you should get out. You got to ask yourself, is this something I could be great at? Because once you're great at something, then you start to like it. And what might be happening at your family's company is that as the low man on the toting pole, you're charged a new business, which means basically calling people and asking for meetings and asking them for their money, which sucks.

21:02And it's hard, especially it sounds like you might not be an extrovert, but an introvert. So here's what you need to do. Ask yourself, is this just not the industry for me? Or is it that work is hard, especially in financial services where the first 10 years, it's the worst job in the world. And then it slowly but surely becomes the best job in the world as you build a book of business. How much are the relationships impacting your view of work? Do you have a strained relationship with your father and your uncle where you're just better being seeing them on weekends and not working with them. The dynamics of working in a family business are really thick, right?

21:33Ask them for their help. What do they think? Or maybe not have that kind of relationship, but get some outside advice and think to yourself, is there a different role within the company? Do I need them to change their behavior so that I'm happier? Or is it just not for you? And if it's just not for you, be very transparent with them and help them brainstorm with you about another career. But don't be too hard on yourself. You know, this happens a lot. So what are we going to do? We're going to have an honest conversation with the man in the mirror around, is this just hard work and I need to give it longer?

22:08Am I cut out for this? Are other things impacting my day-to-day job, a strained relationship with my uncle and my father? Can I fix that? Open and honest conversations with some mentors, including maybe your father and your uncle. and then forgive yourself in a recognition that if it doesn't work out, it's not the end of the world and ask for their help finding another gig. Thanks for the question. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at prop2media.com. That's officehours at prop2media.com. Or if you prefer to ask on Reddit, just post your question on the Scott Galloway subreddit and we just might feature it in an upcoming episode.

22:49What a thrill. This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Janair. Kami Rika is our social producer. Brad Williams is our editor. And Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the PropG pod from PropG Media.