The Future of Podcasting, Scott’s Investing Advice, and Choosing Between Career and Family

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1:22If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at profgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at profgmedia.com. So with that first question, I have not seen these questions.

2:00project that we do ourselves. We've tried a bunch of little tests, including making our own audio textbooks on our standalone app with some success, but nothing to get too excited about. You have painted a really bright future for podcasts, especially in the recent months. So my first question is, how do you think this inflow of money will come in? Will it be a winner-take-all situation or more of a rising tide floats all podcast situation? Second, what would be your advice to people who run smaller podcasts focused on niche topics? How do we position ourselves to not miss the boat. For reference, we have about 10 ,000 subscribers across all channels, and our episodes each get several thousand listens in the first few weeks.

2:36We'd love to hear your thoughts and keep up the great work. Thanks for the thoughtful question, Jesse. And you have kind of what is probably the core confidence of podcasting, that is you have a very handsome voice. Okay, podcasting. So once an industry is digitized, when everyone has access to everything seamlessly, quality not only wins, it soaks up all of the cookie. And that is you digitize retail and 50 % ends up with one e-commerce company, Amazon. You digitize information and you get 93 % share to search. You digitize PhotoShine, whatever it might be. And you have one company with two thirds market share of all social and that's meta.

3:11The same thing has happened in podcasting. And that is everyone has access to everything on Spotify or on Apple Music. And as a result, this medium is growing like crazy. According to Podcast Industry Insights, there are 450 ,000 active shows releasing episodes regularly, but the top 25 podcasts alone reach nearly half of U.S. weekly listeners. Think about this, 50 % share of the 25 top podcasts in a pool of 450 ,000. Jesus, talk about inequality. If you break into the, you know, if you get into the NBA, it's a great living. But unfortunately, about 99.9 % don't. It is very difficult. I started seven years ago.

3:52Pivot does about seven or eight million a year. It'll do 10 this year. By the way, I talk about money. I think it's an attempt to keep poor people down when people are making a lot of money don't talk about money. I want people to understand business. I want them to understand exactly what's going on. Prop G does less. Prop G does around five or six million, but it's growing faster. It's growing 40 % a year. Those are not big businesses. Raging Moderates will probably do, I don't know, we'll see. It'll probably do one to two million next year as we get going, get our feet under us. These are small businesses, except they're ridiculously fucking profitable once you get to a certain point.

4:25This podcast has a producer, an associate producer, a tech person, and a sound engineer. And we have some analysts supporting some of the data, but okay, what are those costs, right? Half a million to a million bucks a year, if you have really talented young people who you overpay, see above Prof G Media. But this is, you know, once you get to a half a million or a million in revenue, it's all gross margin. It's all profit. So these things can be massively profitable once you get to a certain point. As it relates to you, as it relates to you, advice, the specific crowds out the general, you want to go very niche, very niche, right?

4:58You want to own something, absolutely own it. Two, you want to Mr. Beast it. Every week, what could we do with the sound, sound effects, production, editing? I think less is more. I'm always a fan of cutting more. Who could we bring in? What better guests could we find? And then the kind of next generation of podcasting is probably the reshuffling. There's going to be a reshuffling of the deck, if you will. Podcasting was initially kind of some semi-famous people who did interviews, and then it went to people who are more talented, bringing different content and information. The interview format, I think, is declining a little bit.

5:32Then there was a big trend around really highly produced podcasts, serial and crime podcasts. The problem with those is they're expensive to produce. I think the next kind of generation or the next reshuffling of the podcast stack is going to happen because of the following trend, YouTube. And that is, if you don't get as many views on YouTube as you get downloads, you're no longer going to be a top 100 podcaster. The new distribution medium for podcasts isn't Spotify or Apple. It's actually YouTube. And now people are spending or more people are watching podcasts on YouTube than they are listening to them.

6:06So you need to up your video game. This is hard for me because the thing I love most about podcasts is my studio. It basically looks like a giant shaving kit, and I take it everywhere in the world. No matter where I am, I can do my podcast. And that's a huge alarm for me because daddy likes to travel. So I'm in Sao Paulo, Cabo San Lucas, Las Vegas, LA, then Las Vegas again in the last two and a half weeks. And guess what? No interruption in my podcasting. And unfortunately, to take it to the next level, I probably need to put more resources into video in a static studio space. I don't know if you're watching this right now, but I'm in my guest bedroom because we're moving.

6:38And it's not, well, what you call high production value. I mean, Jesus Christ, look at this face. I look like a fish that swam too close to a reactor. Makeup! Makeup! Anyway, at your level of downloads, it's going to be difficult to monetize. You'll sort of for a moment be tempted to have it be subscription, don't do that. I think subscription was a bad idea. If you're a guy like Sam Harris and you're just so fucking talented that people pay a hundred bucks a year, fine. But what's interesting about podcasting is there's very few places to find a young, wealthy consumer if you're an advertiser.

7:07They're all on Spotify and watching Netflix, which means they don't see ads. So podcasting is one of the last places an advertiser can go to reach a young, wealthy audience. So the future is so bright for podcasting, you got to wear shades. Thank you for the question and good luck with your pod. Question number two. Hey, brother, really appreciate everything you do. This is Derek from California, and I would love to know your thoughts on Michael Burry's skepticism on index investing. Thanks so much. This is super interesting, and I'm not that informed here. The Big Shorts Michael Burry has warned about this supposed bubble in passive investing.

7:44His take? The recent flood of money into index funds feels a lot like pre-2008 craze around collateralized debt obligations, CDOs, the complex financial instruments that nearly collapsed the global economy. So Michael told Bloomberg, like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be. Back in 2023, he made headlines by betting against the S &P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, taking out more than$1.5 billion in put options. He was wrong and paid the price. According to his 13F filing, Michael closed that massive short position at a 40 % loss. And while the$1.5 billion was the face value of the bet, not the actual amount he put in, it still shows how risky shorting can be.

8:23Short investing is really difficult. This isn't the question, but short investing is really difficult because the natural trajectory over the medium and long term of the markets is up and to the right because of demographic growth and innovation. So I think Michael's an interesting guy. I think he's thoughtful. He's kind of a perma bear. He's always betting on a catastrophe and occasionally be a ride. He's a little bit like my colleague, Nuro Rubini, but I always learn when I listen to Nuri Al. But Nuri Al is pretty much a pessimist and it's kind of always warning of a crash. And he was right in 08.

8:54I personally believe that passive index investing is a really good strategy. Why is that? It's easy to convince yourself you're smarter than everyone else. It's harder to be smarter than everyone else. And when everyone has access to all information, you just want to bet on innovation and the American economy and that the entire, you don't need to find the needle in the haystack. I think you're better off buying the entire haystack. And also the key that people don't spend enough time thinking about is absolutely minimize your fees. Also, there's a cost to stock picking, and that is you have to pick the stock, which means it takes mental bandwidth, which means you blame yourself when it works, or you credit yourself unnaturally when it does work and start believing you actually know how to do this, which you probably don't.

9:38How do you get wealthy? Slowly, but some sort of passive matching program to your employer or the government that matches. There's some of those programs here in the UK. Get it out of your hands. Have it taken out of your check automatically. Max out any matching program you have to your employer through a government program, and then put it into passive index funds. Because if you're Warren Buffett, fine. If you're an amazing stock picker, fine. 99.9 % of us aren't. And focus all of that additional energy you would spend trying to do analysis and convince yourself that you understand that Starbucks is going to go up and put it into your core job where you can make more money and then continue to invest in dollar cost average into index funds.

10:17So now the passive investing, people say, and I guess there's some truth to the fact that when anything becomes too popular, it's usually not the right strategy. I can see an era where there's a great rotation out of the US, which is now 50 % of the value of all stocks globally, it's usually around a quarter to a third. And we see a redistribution or a reversal of the flows out of the U.S. into more emerging markets. So for example, I'm looking at some stocks in Brazil. See above, can't help but decide I'm a smarter stock picker than most people. But I have at least 30 or 40 different investments and I try to make them uncorrelated.

10:53So to a certain extent, I have a bit of an index fund that I've created myself. So I'm still a big fan of index investing. I just think that's the best, most bulletproof way to establish economic security. Thanks for the question. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us. Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start? Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is? With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home Pro. You just have to hire one.

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12:33Welcome back. Question number three. Hey, Scott. It's Connor from Raleigh, North Carolina. I'm a 31-year-old lead software engineer at a cybersecurity company, and I'm reaching out for some life and career advice. I work fully remote, and although I love my company and was recently awarded a Quarterly Performance Award, I've been struggling with the isolation that remote work has brought to my life. Since COVID, I found myself spending nearly every day working from home, often rolling out of bed just minutes before my first meeting. This past fall, I attended a summit in Seattle where I spent a week working from the office, and it was a game changer.

13:12The focus, structure, and energy of working in person felt like a major boost to my productivity and overall happiness. Since then, I've been seriously considering relocating to Seattle to work in the office daily. I think it could be a great move for my career and would help me regain the structure I feel like I've been missing. My wife is fully on board with the idea. She's lived all over the world and grew up in Raleigh, and I think that she would welcome a change in scenery. And her job is fully remote, and she enjoys working remotely, so moving for her would be pretty seamless. Here's the challenge.

13:45I have a three-year-old niece here in North Carolina, not far from me. It means the world to me. Her dad is my twin brother, and he's been through a long and difficult battle with addiction, but is now in recovery. How do I balance my desire to work in the office and possibly accelerate my career with my desire to stay close with family and be a consistent present for my niece? Thanks so much, Scott. I've been a huge fan of yours. for a long time now, ever since Winners and Losers back on YouTube. And I really appreciate the work that you do. Jesus Christ, can you be my uncle, Connor? You sound like such a thoughtful, impressive young man.

14:26The first thing you should do is just take stock of your blessings. Let me get this. You're 31. You're a lead software engineer. It sounds like you're in a good relationship with your wife. You have a wonderful relationship with your niece. you obviously deeply care about your brother. I imagine he deeply cares about you and you're close with his family. I mean, you're just, you know, you're the man, you're definitely a role model for other men and people around you. I think you move. I think it's important that you establish economic security and personal growth and emotional growth and happiness for you and your wife, you guys are going to be, my guess is probably starting your own family pretty soon.

15:09And I think between FaceTime and maybe more than the occasional flight back to Raleigh, you can still maintain a really close relationship with your brother and your niece. Look, I think they would miss you, but my guess is they love you a great deal and want you and your wife to be happy. And I think anyone who's ambitious, young, and talented should be in the office. You're going to make more money in the office. You're going to make deeper relationships. You're much more likely to get promoted. And being in a city when you're young and you don't have kids and you kind of dance between the raindrops and have a smaller apartment and enjoy all the benefits of a city like Seattle, Jesus Christ, a lot of rain, a lot of rain.

15:52I think you do this, brother. When you move and you shake it up a little bit, you may look back and say, we didn't do better, but it was the right move. I'm in London. I don't love it here, but it was the right thing because it was good for my kids. It was good for a change. And I think if your brother's on the path to recovery, I don't know, I think you're focused on yourself right now. What would your niece want for you when she's 25? She would look back and think, I have this wonderful uncle that loved me a great deal and I loved a great deal. But what I wish was that he was incredibly happy, that he was doing what built economic security for him and his family made him and his wife the happiest.

16:31And you're still going to be able to be an outstanding uncle, which it sounds like you are. And some and some, Seattle, here you come. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at propgmedia.com.

16:57This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Shagrin. Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to Prof G. Pop from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Prof G. Markets pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday. Thank you.