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The Source with Kaitlan Collins

30 Oct 2026 · 48m · 14 chapters

Episode artwork

Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas & Iowa

In short

The episode covers late-campaign changes and polling ahead of the 2026 midterms, focusing on President Trump canceling in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa, the impact of those rallies versus tele-rallies, and broader election dynamics including Alaska’s alleged ballot-name confusion probe and Senate polling shifts.

Guests and backgrounds

Bernie Sanders, independent U.S. senator from Vermont and longtime presidential candidate; Eric Holder, former U.S. attorney general under President Obama; Harry Enten, CNN chief data analyst; Karen Finney, former senior advisor to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign; Doug High, former communications director for the Republican National Committee.

Key claims

Trump canceled Kansas/Iowa rallies citing “not feeling” he needs to go and switching to tele-rallies; Sanders argues Trump’s behavior and “narcissism” are driving disgust; Holder says Alaska’s alleged “fake Dan Sullivan” situation looks wrong but lacks a criminal basis; Enten says Democrats are polling strongly in Kansas/Texas and Republicans’ nominees have negative favorability; Finney and High debate whether Trump’s low approval hurts GOP candidates.

Notable examples

Reuters reporter Jacob Bogage asked about Trump’s schedule; Sanders cites Trump calling Norway a “shithole”; Alaska DOJ subpoenas tied to alleged “Dan Sullivan” name confusion; Trump/Obama “Cheesecake Factory” remarks; CNN poll numbers showing tight Kansas/Iowa races and Democrats within striking distance of Senate control.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:14

Trump's Cancelled Rallies

Discussion on Trump's abrupt cancellations of rallies in key states.

“I'm Caitlin Collins and this is The Source.”
2:14

Reactions to Schedule Change

Analysis of the implications and reactions to Trump's changed campaign strategy.

“Those are both traditionally red states where Republicans are right now fighting Democrats to hang on to their seats.”
4:25

Bernie Sanders Weighs In

Senator Bernie Sanders discusses the potential impact of Trump's behavior on voters.

“Now, there's another reason why canceling these final two rallies of the 2026 midterms stands out to those of us who have covered Trump for years.”
8:00

Campaign Dynamics and Rhetoric

Examination of current campaign dynamics and Trump's divisive rhetoric.

“but it's what he said, he called Norway a shithole country.”
13:31

Hatred in Politics

Discussion on the rise of hatred in political discourse and its implications.

“I think despite it all, the zillions of dollars being spent against Abdul in Michigan and Angie in Florida, I think those lies are not going to work.”
14:00

Political Dynamics in Michigan

Insight into the current political landscape and campaign strategies in Michigan.

“But they have not appeared on the campaign trail together.”
18:03

Upcoming Election and Campaign Strategies

Discussion on the Vice President's involvement and the ongoing election campaign.

“into the Cheesecake Factory dialogue between President Obama and President Trump.”
19:22

Trump's Campaign Decisions

Analysis of Trump's campaign strategy and decision to cancel rallies.

“With control of Congress in the hands of the voters in just five days from right now, you might be surprised by how much attention the White House is devoting right now to somebody who is not on the ballot.”
26:01

Polling Insights Ahead of the Midterms

Insights from polling data about the Democrats' chances in the Senate.

“Harry Enten is standing by with these new numbers.”
28:01

Polling Trends and Historical Context

The discussion explores historical polling trends for Democrats in key states, particularly Kansas, and analyzes current candidates' favorability ratings.

“To find that, you have to go all the way back to 1988 and Lloyd Benson, who was running for VP that year.”
Show all 14 chapters
36:50

Introduction of Eric Holder

The hosts introduce Eric Holder to discuss the legal implications of recent allegations in Alaska's elections.

“Used Vanta to unlock the Fortune 100 in under a year.”
37:45

Investigation into Alaska's Election Allegations

Eric Holder discusses the recent allegations of voter manipulation in Alaska and the DOJ's investigation into the matter.

“It comes after bombshell allegations in that New York Times report yesterday that describe a coordinated effort linked to the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, that's Mary Peltola, and her campaign.”
42:04

Justice Department's Role and Political Implications

Explore the discussion on the Justice Department's actions and their political ramifications leading up to the elections.

“But we've seen just the last few days beyond the Alaska lawsuit that, you know, James Comey, they were attempting to charge him again for the third time.”
45:58

Trump's Budget for Golf Course Renovations

Discussion on the Trump administration's budget for tree removals at East Potomac golf links and ongoing legal issues.

“And tonight's source code is$1.2 million.”
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Transcript

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1:01With just five days to go until the midterm elections, President Trump just abruptly canceled two of his final rallies. Senator Bernie Sanders is also here to weigh in on the 2026 midterms and more. I'm Caitlin Collins and this is The Source.

1:30And there is that surprising schedule change from the White House tonight with just five days to go until the midterm elections next Tuesday. The president is canceling his final two scheduled rallies for this cycle, leaving just one more in Florida tomorrow on his schedule. Now, of course, few politicians have logged more miles than this president. Today, he actually held his 25th rally this month. that one in South Carolina for Republican Senator Darlene Graham. But in the closing days of this campaign and hours and minutes of an election that is going to have a major impact on the rest of his presidency, it's notable that Trump is scrapping rallies that he had planned in Iowa and in Kansas.

2:14Those are both traditionally red states where Republicans are right now fighting Democrats to hang on to their seats. And the White House now says instead the president is going to hold tele-rallies to stretch his message even further to a bigger audience. But it may have been the president's answer that was the most revealing about what's going on when he was asked why he's adjusting his schedule. You not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling? Oh, you're sick to ask that question. You are sick. Who are you with? I'm a Reuters fan. You are a sick guy. Reuters is terrible by the way.

2:49Well, we just want to make sure you're doing well. Look at this guy. He's way out of shape. Look at how badly he comes to me. Sir, you're not going to go to Kansas. I'm not going to Kansas because he's doing very well. I'm going to do a teller rally. Tomorrow I'm doing Florida. He said, what's the reason after doing what, 28? He says, what's the reason for this, sir, that you're not going to Kansas? You know what the reason is? I don't feel I have to go to Kansas. I'm going to Florida tomorrow and I'll do if something else comes up. But he said, you're not going to Kansas, sir. Are you feeling well?

3:23You've been following me for two weeks. I feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell. Now, that reporter from Reuters, Jacob Bogage, asked a straightforward question about the president's schedule. He got an irritated answer, as you heard there, especially given it's the president himself who has touted his own ability to maintain a busy schedule. So the one thing I can say is that no president has ever worked so hard on a midterm. Nobody's ever campaigned like I have for midterms. I haven't. I've been doing this stuff for a week and a half, two weeks. I did more rallies than I've ever done for myself.

4:08You know, I've done 26 of them. I have worked very hard. I've done 14 rallies in nine days. and it's a lot. I'm going to Georgia, but it's a strain on your voice. It's a strain. You know, it's not normal. I'm doing something different. I'm working like a dog. Now, there's another reason why canceling these final two rallies of the 2026 midterms stands out to those of us who have covered Trump for years. If you'll remember, during the final 72 hours before the 2018 midterms, President Trump held seven rallies in Montana, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri. He told his team then he wanted to be on the road as much as possible, especially in those final few days as voters were casting their ballots.

5:00Tonight, sources say, though, that some Republican officials are relieved by the president's decision to cancel those final two rallies. One top Republican official told my colleague Jeff Zeleny, quote, thank God he hasn't moved the needle anywhere. and a second official saying, quote, everyone who has seen the president, who wants to see him? In the meantime, in Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall, where, of course, the president was expected to go and rally on his behalf, offered this reaction to the news that the president is no longer coming. Senator, any reaction to the president canceling the in-person rally this weekend?

5:36I'm not sure yet. I think they think that by doing so well in the polls that he's probably got better places to spend his time. Not sure. Now, we don't have insight into the senator's polling, but a brand new CNN poll actually found that Senator Roger Marshall's race is still very close. Actually, as you can see here, it's within the margin of error. If there's been a surge in his numbers, we have not seen it materialize yet in the polling. And there's a similar story playing out in Iowa, where CNN's latest poll of polls shows a one-point race. Now, both of these contests, as it stands tonight, could go either way.

6:12That's the exact kind of toss-up races that the president has said are best dealt with him showing up in person. But the rallies are very well attended. And I think we've changed the whole, you know, we've done a lot of them over the last week and a half. A lot. I think we've really turned it around. And, you know, I think the rallies have turned it, frankly. But I think the rallies have really, these rallies have energized. energized, they've really energized the Republican Party. And, you know, we're doing so well. It's just raised him to a level that, you know, nobody can believe. I mean, it's just amazing.

6:53He went up 14 points or something. And that was my rally. As an example, we're up in Texas. We weren't. We're up in Alaska. We weren't. We're up everybody, every place that I've gone to, we're up. My lead source tonight has also been in high demand on the campaign trail. The independent senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, is here. And thank you, Senator, for being here because you are a veteran on the campaign trail. Are you reading anything tonight into the president canceling those last two rallies in person? I think, you know, based on the many events that I've had all over the country, Caitlin, I think there is a growing disgust and anger not only at Trump's personal behavior.

7:41I mean, this is the president of the United States. You should not be screaming and demeaning a reporter who just asked you a question. The other day, and his narcissism, I think, is getting onto the nerves of the American people. The other day he called Norway, you will forgive me for using profanity here, but it's what he said, he called Norway a shithole country. And why did he say that? Because Norway did not give him the Nobel Peace Prize. The government doesn't even do that, but the commission did not do that. And he makes this horrible attack on one of the most prosperous democratic countries in the world.

8:26and people I see are beginning to sense that his narcissism, his pathological lying, his contempt for the Constitution and the rule of law, not to mention his horrible policies, people are saying enough is enough. When I was in Michigan, we were in a small town, 10 ,000 people, in a county that Trump won by 30 points, Alpena, Michigan. We got 1 ,000 people coming out. So I think people all over this country are saying enough is enough. We cannot continue to have a rubber stamp Senate, a rubber stamp House of Representatives. We need to hold this president accountable and we need to start developing policies that help working people, not billionaires.

9:14Does it surprise you to hear that in places that the president won? Because that has kind of been a factor of the last few weeks where he's going to places that, you know, he won by double digits two years ago. Absolutely. Absolutely. And I think, you know, it's a combination of factors. It's the fact that people are looking around them. They can't afford to fill up their gas tank. They can't afford food. Working people are struggling to make ends meet. And they're seeing billionaires getting huge tax breaks and becoming even richer. And people are looking at a campaign finance system, which is corrupt.

9:57You have the richest guy in the world, Mr. Musk, spending over$400 million dollars to try to make sure that Republicans retain control over the Senate and the House. And I think whether you're conservative, a progressive, a moderate, people are saying, you know, that is not what democracy or America is supposed to be about. I think add all of these things together, I can understand why Trump is getting frustrated. The president actually brought you up on the campaign trail today in South Carolina over in Rock Hill. I don't know if You heard what he said, but this was his quote. No doubt saying very positive things.

10:35Well, let's take a listen, and we'll see if you still agree. Bernie Sanders, who's radical left, but, you know, you've got to hand it to the guys like about 137 years old. And he's still sharp. He's still crazy. Crazy Bernie.

10:55To fact check him, you were 85 years old, sir. What was your thought? Should I take that as a compliment?

11:05Well, my thought is that I think he is getting nervous that I and other progressives around the country are rallying the American people to stand up to his contempt for the Constitution and for policies that benefit the very, very rich. I think he's getting nervous. You know, in reality, in terms of what these races look like, a lot of them are going to be close on Tuesday, it seems like. We'll see, obviously, what pans out. And the main attack from Republicans on the Democrat candidates here is that they're too liberal, they're too socialist. Today, the president said black or Jewish voters who are backing Abdul El-Sayed for the Michigan Senate seat in that Senate seat, that they are, quote, crazy.

11:53What do you make of the president saying that? Do you think that that is an effective attack that could work? No, I don't. Caitlin, I will tell you what I make of it. The truth is that if you look at the major issues facing this country, massive income and wealth inequality, a corrupt campaign finance system, uncontrolled AI, a health care system that is collapsing, an educational system in deep trouble, a war, an illegal and unconstitutional war. If you look at all of these issues, Republicans have nothing significant to say about them. So when you have nothing to say about the issues that impact working people, what do you resort to?

12:35You do what demagogues have always done. You go to racism and fear mongering. I was in, just tell you a story, I was in Grand Rapids, Michigan just the other day campaigning with Abdul. And I spent the night in a hotel in Grand Rapids. morning we were having breakfast, TVs were on. In 20 minutes, I saw five ugly ads attacking Abdul. You know why? Because he is a Muslim. Because he is a Muslim. You go to Florida, the only thing they can talk about is communism. I'm a communist. Angie Nixon is a communist. Total, absolute lies. So what these guys are doing now in the really ugliest way that I have seen.

13:19And it's what demagogues do all the time. They try to divide us up by our religion, by where we were born, by our sexual orientation, etc. But I think that strategy is just not working. I think despite it all, the zillions of dollars being spent against Abdul in Michigan and Angie in Florida, I think those lies are not going to work. I think both of those guys are going to win. Well, I mean, in Michigan, we've been watching that race really closely. And we had Congresswoman Haley Stevens here last night, who obviously went up against Abdul El-Sayed at the primary. He defeated her. But they have not appeared on the campaign trail together.

14:02And this is what she told me last night, Senator. Look, I am the weirdest loser in this country. OK, that Senate race was months ago. I hugged it out. Of course, I'm voting for our Democratic nominee for Senate. I'm voting for the Democratic ticket. But I want to encourage this campaign to shut out the hate and to call it out and to make people who are in my coalition, right, make them feel comfortable about coming to the polls, right? Now, we just heard tonight they're going to campaign together on Sunday. But, I mean, what did you make of her comments there, Senator? Well, I think, you know, there is a lot of hatred being thrown about in Michigan, but it is not coming from Abdul.

14:55Look, I understand that the issue of Israel and Gaza is a very sensitive issue. People disagree. My own view is that, in fact, this right-wing extremist Netanyahu in Israel has, in fact, committed genocide against the people of Palestine, the people in Gaza. That does not make you anti-Semitic. I am Jewish. My father's family was wiped out by Hitler. So to talk about the horrific policies of the Netanyahu government, which has killed 75 ,000 men, women and children in Gaza, wounded double that number. That is not anti-Semitism. That is speaking out against a government that we should not be funding.

15:43That's what I believe. I think that's what Abdul believes. And that is not hate mongering. That is simply saying that American taxpayer dollars should not go to an extremist government in Israel. We've got to use that money back home to deal with homelessness, to deal with education, to deal with health care. So when she says she wants him to denounce those ads that have been running, the one that she was referencing came from an outside group. I mean, do you think she has a point in terms of getting Democrats all on the same page in Michigan? Well, look, I mean, we have a corrupt campaign finance system so that any super PAC can say anything they want.

16:26And he had, you know, I suspect no knowledge of that at all. The bottom line is that there is one key issue in this campaign in Michigan, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, wherever. However, will we continue to have a Congress that bows down to an increasingly irrational, dangerous president? Or are we finally going to have a Congress that holds them accountable? And I hope every Democrat in Michigan, if you disagree with Abdul on this or that issue, disagree with him. But the fundamental issue is we've got to end Republican control over the House and the Senate. You're an independent. You caucus with the Democrats.

17:13After next Tuesday, you think Republicans will still be in control of the Senate, sir? I'm not going to speculate. I think, as you mentioned a moment ago. Come on. No, sorry. Not my thing. There are a half a dozen or seven races that are very, very close. All that I can tell you, I am working as hard as I can to make sure that Democrats gain control over the Senate and the House. And I think we've got a reasonable shot to do that, but I'm not into speculation. I certainly hope that is the outcome. All right. We'll talk to you after Tuesday night, Senator. Thank you, Senator Bernie Sanders, for being here tonight.

17:57Thank you very much, Caitlin. one. Up next, I mentioned everyone on the campaign trail today. The vice president is now getting into the Cheesecake Factory dialogue between President Obama and President Trump. What he had to say about the former president, we'll tell you that right after this. And my insiders are here with the reporting on what's going on inside the White House. What's the mood five days out from the midterms?

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19:26With control of Congress in the hands of the voters in just five days from right now, you might be surprised by how much attention the White House is devoting right now to somebody who is not on the ballot. During a town hall tonight, the vice president, J.D. Vance, made his case against former President Barack Obama. Obama, without even trying to be, just can't help himself for being super elitist. Yeah. Remember, this is the guy who said that people who wanted good jobs were clinging to their guns and their religion as if God and the Second Amendment were something to be ashamed of. And I just think that he's he's one of these guys.

20:01He gets out there. I'm sure that the thought prompted his head. He thought it was brilliant or some speechwriter gave it to him. And in reality, it just drove home how divorced the Democrats are from actual America. Those comments are coming after President Trump and President Obama were trading insults on the campaign trail this week. something that President Obama again followed up on last night as he was mocking the administration for their response. The president of the United States is spending time supergluing gold medallions to the mantle in the Oval Office. I am not making this up. He is literally doing arts and crafts while we are fighting a war and trying to deal with out-of-control prices.

20:52And my White House insiders are here with me tonight on The Hill. Jeff Mason is a White House correspondent for Bloomberg. Tyler Pager is a White House correspondent for The New York Times. I mean, what do you guys make of this back and forth? I guess it's not that surprising because anytime Obama speaks, President Trump is watching and paying attention. and he was going after him for something that the president really does genuinely care a lot about. Yeah, it's sort of the perfect storm for the president. It's his biggest foil for years, Barack Obama hitting him where it hurts, which is his renovation of the White House.

21:23Trump has said publicly and privately he takes great pride in the renovations of the White House. He does it to sort of relax. And so to hear his critic and one of his fiercest rivals, even though they've never run against each other, Barack Obama rallying the crowd around this attack line is obviously going to generate attention from Trump. Yeah. Obama obviously gets under President Trump's skin. And Obama has thoughts. You know, he's, I think, in many ways bothered by the legacy of Trump having succeeded him and undoing a lot of what he did. And he is also still the most popular Democrat in the country.

21:59And so that's why he's called upon to do this campaigning. But one of the things that struck me, which wasn't just in this clip that you played now, was one of his responses to Trump was, you know what? He didn't criticize me for saying anything about inflation. He didn't criticize me for or go back against what I said about his record. What he was upset about was the Cheesecake Factory. Yeah, not the Saddam Hussein comparison. It was the Cheesecake Factory. We all three covered the White House. The next few days were expected to be pretty brutal just in terms of travel for the president's schedule.

22:30He's now called off these final two rallies in Kansas and Iowa. What do you make of that, Tyler? Yeah, it's surprising. And the explanation from the White House is not making a ton of sense, candidly. I'm part of the pool for the weekend. So I'll be flying on Air Force One tomorrow with the president and was expecting to be in Florida, Kansas and Iowa over the weekend. They're saying that the president, there are so many Republicans that want him to campaign that it's more effective for him to do these tele-rallies where he can reach more states over the weekend. But, Kalen, what doesn't make sense is that they just advised the president's schedule tomorrow.

23:06And on the way down to Florida, he's participating in a tele-rally aboard Air Force One. So my question is, why can't he do those tele-rallies to and from Kansas and Iowa? Why does he need to be back at Mar-a-Lago? The big question will be whether or not he plays golf this weekend, which he normally does. on a weekend in Florida. If he does, that may even tell us a little bit more about the scheduling changes than it was just he needed more time to do tele-rallies. Yeah, the tele-rallies are also, you know, they're basically a Zoom call. It's just kind of, he's on speaker for about 15 minutes.

23:37It's more scripted. It's not like the actual rallies where he goes and he's in person, Jeff. That's right. And the main point of these rallies has been to gin up the vote and to get people to go out on election day or to do the early voting while that's still available. So the question is, will a tele-rally of people who are dialing in have the same impact on enthusiasm as seeing the president in person and being part of what have been some pretty successful rallies? I've been to some that have seemed a little low energy. I've been to others where the room was really packed. He feeds off of that packed crowd.

24:09And you can't say that President Trump hasn't tried very hard with his travel schedule over the last several weeks to influence these elections. But it doesn't seem like he's doing that in the final, final stretch. Yeah. Even with canceling these last two, I mean, we were saying earlier, I think he's done 25 rallies now to be 26 tomorrow and he goes to Florida total. So obviously still a ton of rallies. But in terms of maybe Republicans being happy about this, Jeff Zeleny was reporting tonight from a senior Republican official who was expressing happiness that the president is staying off the campaign job because it's not always a net positive in this current political environment with his numbers where they are.

24:45Yeah, I mean, I think that is something that we've obviously seen Republicans balancing how to not upset the president because he's still popular with portions of the base, but also distance himself because clearly his approval rating is among the lowest it's been throughout his two terms as president. But the challenge for some of these candidates in these red states that are competitive is Trump is still good at turning out elements of the base that only turn out for Donald Trump. Now, he's not on the ballot, so that is a challenge for these candidates who have often been boosted by Trump bringing in larger percentage of voters.

25:22But it is a tough balancing act, and there are certainly some candidates that are probably happy. But again, he was going to Kansas and Iowa, two states where over the years Trump has performed quite well. And it is kind of the broad conundrum of this election for President Trump. His popularity is partially why or largely why his party is struggling. People are upset about his policies. People are upset about what he's done with the war and with inflation and gas prices. But he wants to go out of these rallies and sell his agenda and talk about what he's accomplished. There's a chance that it will gin up support.

25:54There's also a chance that it will backfire. Yeah. Jeff Mason, Tyler Pager, great to have both of you ahead of Tuesday night. Up next, we have a brand new scene in polling that shows some pretty significant movement in the battle for the Senate. What could happen here on Capitol Hill? Harry Enten is standing by with these new numbers.

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26:55That is a prospect that seemed pretty out of reach even to Democrats just a couple months ago. Likely voters in Michigan and Texas states that the president won in 2024, say that they right now prefer the Democratic candidate for Senate in their states. In the Senate races in Battleground, Maine and Ruby Red, Kansas, polls show an ultra-tight race with no clear leader. My source on all of this is CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten. Harry, what else are you seeing in these numbers?

27:25Kaitlan Collins: Yeah, you know, I saw these numbers come out today, and to me, they were bonkers. They're nuts. I mean, let's start in Texas. You know, we've been talking about for a long time. We've heard, I should say, for a long time. Oh, this is going to be the cycle when Texas finally turns blue. But that really wasn't supported by what the polling data was showing. So, you know, on our CNN poll, what did we see? We saw that James Tallarico was up by six points. You know, I went through the record books at this late stage of the campaign to try and find any Democratic Senate nominee who was up by as much as James Tallarico.

28:01Kaitlan Collins: To find that, you have to go all the way back to 1988 and Lloyd Benson, who was running for VP that year. That's how long ago it was. What is that? That's 38 years ago. My goodness gracious. But that's not the only state in which we see historically strong polling for Democrats. And maybe a state that has been ruby red for a long time might actually finally turn blue. What about Kansas? You know, yes. OK. No clear leader. We should point that out. But at least nominally, you know, look at this. Hamilton's getting 49%. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that 49 % is a little bit higher than 45%.

28:38Kaitlan Collins: And, of course, Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. That was the same year that Babe Ruth supposedly pointed to the bleachers and actually called his shot in that year's World Series against the Chicago Cubs. And I will note that I went again back through the record books. When was the last time that a Democrat was polling this strongly in Kansas? Well, actually, my record books ran out because all I can say is it's the Democrats' best Kansas Senate poll in 30-plus years this late in the campaign. It may be significantly longer than that, but I could only find polling going back to 1996 when Sam Brownback was running for the first time.

29:20Were you just using a Southern accent, Harry?

29:22Kaitlan Collins: I don't think I—no, no, no. I leave that to you, Caitlin. I leave that to you. I just do my New York City accent, which apparently at this late hour turns into a Southern accent. OK. You know, Harry, when you're digging into these numbers, though, one question is how the voters feel about the Republicans on the ballot in these battleground races. Is it that they don't like them and that's why they're going for the Democrats? Or do they feel strongly about people like Adam Hamilton, James Tallarico? Can we tell or decipher that from the numbers? Yeah, I would say that both Hamilton and Tallarico are on the plus side of the ledger.

29:58Kaitlan Collins: And I do think that overall, Democrats have nominated more favorite candidates that are seen more favorably by the public than unfavorably. But that's not all what's going on here, right? You hit it. The Republican nominees in these states. I mean, OK, the GOP Senate nominees net favorability rating. Look at this. They're all negative. They're all negative. Susan Collins, who, you know, has defied political gravity before, she's at minus 12 points. You go back to 2020, the last time she defied political gravity, she was on the plus side of the ledger. How about Mike Rogers in Michigan? He's 16 points underwater.

30:34Kaitlan Collins: In Kansas, look at this, Roger Marshall, 17 points underwater. That is the worst net favorability rating for Republican Senate nominee in Kansas this late in the campaign this entire 21st century. And how about Ken Paxton? 29 points underwater. That is the worst net favorability for a Republican nominee from the great state of Texas at any point in the campaign that I could find dating back this entire century. But Caitlin, here's the thing. I know that there are a lot of viewers here. A lot of our audience will say, you know, pish posh, the polls. I trusted the polls back in the day. I don't anymore.

31:09Kaitlan Collins: That's why I've been looking at a lot of these different metrics to try and understand, OK, where do things really stand? So another way we can look at it, right, is the prediction markets. And that's essentially people putting their money where their mouths are, right? And what we see is a significantly different picture from what we saw just two years ago. So the chance that Democrats win the Senate at this point in the 2024 campaign, according to the Calgary prediction markets, it was just a 15 percent chance. Look at where we stand today. It's a 67 percent chance. That's a two and three. Now, look, two and three is not 100 percent.

31:40Kaitlan Collins: But at this point, if you are someone in the audience, I would much rather be a Democrat than I would be a Republican, because these numbers look significantly different than they did just two years ago. And Democrats right now seem to be in the catbird seat. Harry Enten, we will see what those numbers bear out to look like on Tuesday. Thank you for being here. My political sources are here to analyze those numbers. Karen Finney was a senior advisor to Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign. Doug High is the former communications director for the Republican National Committee. Doug, if you're a Republican and you're Susan Collins or even all the way down to Ken Paxton, you're looking at those net favorability, it's pretty brutal.

32:20It's brutal. And it's brutal for one main reason. And it's Donald Trump. Ultimately, every poll that we see shows that Donald Trump's numbers are like this never ending limbo contest of how low can they go? And they fall another point or a half here, another point and a half there. That's why the latest has him at 32. It's really tough to win, even if you're above water in your polling when your numbers are that low. And just by comparison, when I worked at the RNC in 2010, our magic number for Obama was 46. We felt if he was at or below that, we'd take back the House. That's exactly where he was.

32:51Donald Trump is nowhere near that. It makes your job that much harder if you're Susan Collins or Ashley Hinson, or if you're Ken Paxson and you've got your own, you know, more baggage than a love boat. It makes life real hard for you. Well, that year was a shellacking for Democrats. Yes, it was. As they famously described it. How are you looking at these numbers? Because I think sometimes I've heard from some Democrats who say, don't get too hopeful. Don't count your chickens before your eggs hatch. We've been beaten down too many times. Pish posh, as Harry said. Yeah, that's what Harry would say.

33:21I am cautiously optimistic in different places. I mean, when I was a baby Democrat and Ann Richards was governor of Texas, the idea that, you know, a Republican would be governor was seemed crazy. Right. And so and we've been working hard in that state for a very long time. I mean, since I was at the DNC in around the same time as Doug. So the work has been put in. So to some degree, I want us to also as we're looking at these numbers, some places like South Carolina, Trump is wildly unpopular. Annie Andrews is a great candidate, and there are other factors in terms of the economy. Texas, Tallarico is great.

33:58Paxton is horrible, obviously, for a lot, and Trump is a dream. But Democrats have been trying to put in the work to organize, to be a stronger party in the state. So it's similar to Georgia, right? So we have to take a look at sort of what's going on behind the scenes as well in terms of organizing. Well, I'm glad you brought up Tallarico because my colleague Ed Lavendera was in Texas today and he talked to James Tallarico, the Democrat here, about this contrast he's drawing between himself, Ken Paxton and President Trump. Ken Paxton is canceling rallies because no one's showing up to his rallies.

34:35He can't recruit volunteers and so he's using AI bots. He doesn't have any grassroots donors, so he's relying on the richest man in the world to fund his campaign. What do you say to those voters who are listening to Donald Trump over the last few days? Ken Paxton, they described you as a freak, someone who's crazy, someone who is radical, and that there are people out there who think that you're pretending to be more centrist than you are. What do you say to those voters who have that skepticism? Well, I want people to know that they can purchase their own I'm a Tala Freako t-shirt on our campaign website.

35:07It's our best-selling item in our web store. So we're trying to take this in stride. I mean, as a Republican, how do you hear that from a Democrat? Look, they have a reason to be optimistic. I will say we've seen this situation in Texas before. It's why some Democrats are saying they're nauseously optimistic. Their stomach is churning. But Tallarico is a good candidate who's run a good campaign, running against a bad candidate with a really bad headwind. The challenge is it's still Texas. You know, though, I think we should also give Tallarico credit in that. And this is something we've seen consistently over several cycles.

35:42When candidates go in and establish their brand, and he was able to do it. He was a state legislator. People knew who he was. He has a record. When they establish their brand early, those are the candidates who tend to hold up better later on in the contest when the attacks come. It's the candidates who don't quite establish that rapport with their voters and with the public who tend to struggle a little bit more. And it's sort of that rapport with themselves as well. Tallarico is clearly comfortable in his own skin. Yeah, and he was mentioning Ken Paxson canceling rallies. The president just canceled his final two.

36:15We'll see what this looks like. Karen Finney, Doug, great to have both of you here tonight. And up next, Alaska's governor has now ordered an investigation into alleged Democratic efforts to confuse voters by putting two Dan Zeldins on the ballot. Now the Justice Department has just issued a barrage of subpoenas. We're going to speak to the former Attorney General Eric Holder for his perspective on what's playing out and what could be a remarkable race next Tuesday.

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37:35Still haven't started? Hey, better late than never. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Tonight, with those five days to go until the midterm elections, sources are telling CNN that the Justice Department has dramatically accelerated its criminal probe into whether or not Alaska Democrats sought to siphon votes from the incumbent Republican senator, that's Dan Sullivan, by recruiting a Senate candidate with the exact same name. It comes after bombshell allegations in that New York Times report yesterday that describe a coordinated effort linked to the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, that's Mary Peltola, and her campaign.

38:17Now, sources say that Times report, which has roiled one of the biggest races in the nation, provided investigators with material that they didn't actually previously have. That has led the DOJ to issue more than 40 new grand jury subpoenas in just the hours since that report came out and to close in on potential new charges. The Republican governor of Alaska and the Republican-led House Oversight Committee here on Capitol Hill say that they're also launching their own investigations. Now, Mary Peltola's campaign, the top Democratic Party leaders, including Chuck Schumer, have denied any wrongdoing or connection with this.

38:54But this is what the president said today he believes should happen. This is voter fraud at the highest level. And the Democrat candidate who was involved in the scheme, Mary Peltola, who treats her staff horribly, by the way, so badly that they think she's abusive, actually, should be removed from the ballot and prosecuted. And so should the fake Dan Sullivan. My source tonight was the attorney general under President Obama. Eric Holder is here. And thank you, sir, for being here. First off, on just what you heard the president saying there, he thinks Mary Paltola should be prosecuted. In terms of what you know overall publicly, is there any legal rationale for criminal charges for anyone here in your view?

39:43No, I don't see why there is a criminal investigation. This is not good for our democracy. It's not good politics, I think, ultimately, but I don't see any basis for criminal charges. And if you're going to investigate this, I think you also need to look at, you know, Republicans who in 2024 ran a candidate against Mary Peltola, who had a New York address and who was in prison. And then look at the campaign of people who were supporting Dan Sullivan this year and who tried to put a Green Party candidate on the ballot. And he is a person who had a residence in Arizona. I don't think this is good for our democracy.

40:19It happens too often. But I don't think there's a basis here for criminal charges. So basically you think it's wrong, but not illegal. Yeah, exactly. I think that's exactly right. And, you know, the other thing you have to ask yourself is what's the harm here? Again, the appearances are not good. But in terms of substance, the people of Alaska have the ability, if you look at the ballot next to Senator Sullivan, it says incumbent. And so if you want to vote for Senator Sullivan, you just look there and read that. If you want to vote for the other Dan Sullivan, you can do that. And people need to remember Alaska is a state that elected Lisa Murkowski by doing a write-in.

41:01She had a write-in campaign. Her name wasn't even on the ballot. People had to write her name in, and she was successful in doing that. So I don't think there's a criminal basis for the investigation. I think if you're going to have an investigation, you need to look at the totality of all of this stuff that has happened. And I also think that at the end of the day, there's not going to be any confusion and that we'll have, you know, a good result. I think the unfortunate thing, though, is that we're not talking about that which the voters of Alaska probably really care about. That's the performance of the senator, the fact that he is aligned with the Trump agenda, a failed war, high prices, corruption at unbelievable levels, and look at where Mary Peltola is, a person who is offering a different way, a new path.

41:49And that's, I think, what we need to really be focused on. What's your take on the DOJ overall? Because one thing that a lot of people who watch the DOJ, and I've talked to former prosecutors about this even just this week, was historically they try not to take actions that might impact an election or seem politically motivated right before an election. But we've seen just the last few days beyond the Alaska lawsuit that, you know, James Comey, they were attempting to charge him again for the third time. They're challenging voter rolls in California and other states. Obviously, everything related to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar that was going on.

42:26When you look at this and they say we're just following the facts and the law, not anybody's political timetable. That was the quote from the DOJ. Is that how you see it? No, I don't see it that way at all. I think they're acting in a way that's inconsistent with the way in which the Justice Department under Democratic as well as Republican attorneys general have conducted themselves. All of the things that they're doing now are matters that could be looked at after the election. You don't want to have the Justice Department looking into allegations that might have an impact on voter turnout, on voter, how voters look at particular candidates.

43:04You don't have any proof at this point that anything has actually occurred. And that's why the rule is in place that says, you know, you don't take any overt steps if you're at the Justice Department until after an election. And here there's no basis to do anything other than the way it has been done in the past. I mean, the reality is that this Justice Department is a part of the political arm of the White House. It does not act independently. The attorney general has said that. He says he says he works for Donald Trump. And again, that's inconsistent with the way in which attorneys general, certainly since Watergate, have thought of the job.

43:39You work for the American people. You don't work for the president who appointed you. Yeah, well, this DOJ did hang a banner of the president's face on the building when Pam Bondi was the AG. So I think that was clear that that line had been blurred at that point. In terms of Tuesday night and what this is going to look like, you know, we were just hearing from your former boss, President Obama, out on the campaign trail. When the whole redistricting war happened earlier this year, you were pretty critical of it in a very outspoken way. Now that we're getting closer, do you think it maybe backfired on Republicans or how are you looking at it now, politically speaking?

44:18Yeah, I think it backfired on Republicans, but it didn't fail of its own accord. What happened was that after Donald Trump said, I wanted five extra seats in Texas, Democrats had to think, what are we going to do? And so we made the determination that we were going to just clutch our pearls. I wasn't going to just write an op-ed. I talked to Governor Newsom. He said, all right, we're going to let the people of California decide if they want to reconfigure their maps to come up with five potential seats for Democrats. We filed lawsuits in Utah, as well as in Missouri. We got people at the grassroots level to go to the legislatures in states like Georgia and South Carolina and made clear to the legislators there that if they did something like what Trump got Greg Abbott to do in Texas, there would be a political consequence.

45:07And so I think as a result of all of that, what they tried to do has failed. But again, not because it failed of its own accord. It failed because of the work that organizations like mine, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and our allies did. We actually dismantled it. And their thought that they were going to get an extra 21 seats or something like that, I think, is more likely to be, we say, at the top, maybe five and much more likely to be zero or even zero or one. We shall see. Former Attorney General Eric Holder, thank you for taking the time to join us tonight. I really appreciate it.

45:44All right. Thanks for having me. Up next, it is time for Source Code. Tonight, our source code is$1.2 million. I'll be right back with the story.

45:58And tonight's source code is$1.2 million. dollars. That's because that's how much the Trump administration has budgeted for removing those trees at East Potomac golf links here in the nation's capital, according to reporting from the Washington Post. In a lengthy Truth Social post last night, the president fumed over those legal efforts to block renovations of the golf course. He called it dangerous and said that the gaping holes in the driving range netting caused an unnamed White House staffer to be, quote, hit violently in the chest. We'll continue to follow that all-ungoing legal drama. Thank you so much for joining us live from Capitol Hill tonight.

46:36CNN News Night starts now.

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With just five days to go until the midterm elections, President Trump just abruptly canceled two of his final rallies.
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