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The Source with Kaitlan Collins

31 Oct 2026 · 46m · 20 chapters

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Trump Rallies in Florida 4 Days Before the Midterms

In short

The Source episode focuses on Trump’s campaign strategy four days before the midterms, plus late-breaking election legal fights and battleground updates. In Daytona Beach, Trump resumes rallies in Kansas and Iowa after canceling them, with Reuters reporters describing his Islamophobic and insulting remarks and “spelling lessons.” Sources say the White House scrambled to reinstate events after Trump disliked media coverage. David Chalian argues the shift looks chaotic and that rallies may be more valuable than tele-rallies for generating news clips, especially given Trump’s low approval going into a midterm. The episode also covers Alaska’s Senate probe: DOJ accelerates a criminal and civil investigation tied to allegations involving a man recruited under a similar name to Dan Sullivan; Republican election lawyer Benjamin Ginsburg calls it “legal performance art.” Tina Smith says Alaska voters are smart and that the DOJ surge is an abuse of power.

Guests

David Chalian (CNN political director), Benjamin Ginsburg (Republican election lawyer), Tina Smith (retiring Democratic senator).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:12

Trump's Rallies Rescheduled

Discussing Trump's return to campaign rallies ahead of midterms.

“I'm Brianna Keeloran for Caitlin Collins, and this is The Source.”
2:20

Trump's Campaign Strategies

Analyzing the shifts in Trump's campaign strategy and messaging.

“But how about the guy, Talafrico, we have a freak.”
4:21

Midterm Elections and Historical Trends

Exploring why midterms are challenging for sitting presidents.

“But I got a call from Iowa and from the people and from my friends that are very, very good.”
6:05

Impact of Trump Rallies

Examining the potential effects of Trump's rallies on voter turnout.

“Let's bring in CNN political director David Chalian to talk about this.”
8:29

Alaska's Senate Race and DOJ Probes

Discussing the implications of the DOJ's probe in Alaska's Senate race.

“And they tend to stay out of sight, right?”
10:46

Alaska Election Dynamics

Analyzing the confusion regarding incumbency in Alaska's elections.

“The Justice Department has also filed a civil lawsuit to block Alaska's Senate results if the GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan loses.”
14:00

Understanding Voter Sentiment in Alaska

Explore the complexities of voter behavior in Alaska's elections.

“And yet she won in that really unprecedented write-in race.”
15:44

Senator Tina Smith's Perspective on Alaska's Politics

Senator Tina Smith discusses the political landscape and voter intelligence in Alaska.

“Certainly has introduced a whole new dynamic.”
17:01

Concerns Over Election Integrity

Senator Smith addresses potential issues related to election integrity and vote suppression.

“The White House has gone on offense in light of these allegations.”
18:36

Minnesota's Get Out the Vote Efforts

Learn about the extensive voter outreach efforts in Minnesota leading up to the elections.

“So, as I mentioned, you are leaving all of this.”
Show all 20 chapters
21:20

Impending Senate Race Updates

Senator Smith provides insights on the upcoming Senate race dynamics in Minnesota.

“And I will, for one, be really glad when we get there.”
27:24

Senate Race Insights from John King

John King gives updates on key Senate races and voter sentiments in battleground states.

“See our seven-day return policy at Carvana.com.”
28:00

Election Day Strategies for Democrats

Learn about the critical strategies Democrats need to implement in the final days leading up to the elections.

“hope to maintain control of the chamber.”
29:50

Republicans' Challenges in the Midterms

Explore the difficulties Republicans face in maintaining their voter coalition as midterms approach.

“Those folks are not, you know, coming out for the Republican Party like they did for President Trump.”
33:00

Intra-Party Conflicts in Michigan

Discuss the internal conflicts within the Democratic Party in Michigan and their potential impacts.

“There's like a family food fight going on there.”
35:40

Divorced Military Spouses Stuck Abroad

Understand the legal challenges faced by divorced military spouses stranded overseas due to foreign jurisdiction.

“If Democrats lose that, they've got no one to blame except the candidate himself.”
37:14

Trump's Campaign Strategies and Voter Sentiment

Examine Trump's campaign messages and their reception as the election draws near.

“stuck overseas with their kids, blindsided by the reach of an obscure treaty that can give foreign courts jurisdiction over their American children.”
42:06

Trump's Rally Impact and Voter Sentiment

Explore the dynamics of Trump's rallies and their effects on Republican candidates.

“The problem is that for$5 ,000, the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert.”
43:41

Michigan Senate Race and Political Divisions

Discussion on the tight Michigan Senate race and personal political divides.

“Back in August, El-Sayed narrowly won the nomination, you'll recall, when he defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the primary.”
44:27

Trump's Response to Voter Decisions

Analysis of Trump's attitude towards voter decisions and political accountability.

“So you not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling?”
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Transcript

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1:31Four days until the midterms and President Trump is returning to the campaign trail. He is speaking right now to a crowd in Daytona Beach, Florida, where he made the case for Republican candidates with his now familiar mix of Islamophobia, name calling and spelling lessons. So you not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling? Oh, you're sick to ask that question. You are sick. Who are you with? I'm with Reuters, sir. You are a sick guy. Reuters is terrible. You ever say anything like this? The guy in Michigan, Abdul. How are you, Abdul? Abdul is a jihadist. Abdul is a jihadist.

2:12If you're black or if you're Jewish and you vote for Abdul, you're not smart. I'm being nice. You're not smart. But how about the guy, Talafrico, we have a freak. and when he disappeared for probably 14 not 12 they say 12 days but you know what it was he had he had food poisoning he was he was eating he was forced to eat meat he never

2:45he's a vegan david jolly a real loser

2:52but a terrible person you know he was a everybody hated the guy they all talked about how they hate he's got no heart no soul he's weak and pathetic what's going to happen if the democrats or as i call them now democrats they are dumb people you know why because their their policies are dumb you simply replace the e with a u and nobody knows they're dumb as a b and you get the word Democrat. And I can't believe it took me nine years to figure it out. It was just yesterday. He said Republicans who hope to hold on to their majorities in the building behind me didn't need his help in places like Kansas and Iowa.

3:32But now the rallies in both those states are back on, rescheduled for Sunday. Sources saying the abrupt shift in strategy came after the president got irritated at how his decision was being covered in the media after he lost his temper when asked about the canceled rallies. So you not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling? Oh, you're sick to ask that question. You are sick. Who you with? I'm with Reuters, sir. You are a sick guy. Reuters is terrible, by the way. Well, we just want to make sure you're doing well. Look at this guy. He's way out of shape. We're told the president demanded the rallies be reinstated, sending staff members scrambling to get events back on the calendar.

4:12But at the White House this afternoon, He said it was the campaigns in Iowa and Kansas that called him and asked him to come. But I got a call from Iowa and from the people and from my friends that are very, very good. And we have a couple of races that are very important. And they said, if you could go, it would be better than a tele-rally. And I tried to talk about that. I said, what about a tele-rally? But they asked me, so I'm going to do two on Sunday. And I was a little bit concerned about Saturday because it's a college football. Worth noting, all national elections happen in the middle of college football season.

4:55But that aside, the president's super PAC has him dialing into virtual events across 19 states. But when it comes to physical travel, compare this map of where he's going in the closing days of this election cycle to how many miles he logged during the midterm election of his first term. In 2018, he hit seven states in the closing 72 hours. And even as the president insists that his rallies are helping Republican candidates across the country, he's also spent months lamenting the historic trend of how midterms go for the party in power. There's something strange because if you're president, Republican or Democrat, for whatever reason, you don't win the midterms.

5:38I just feel there's a great, I don't know. The president always loses, for whatever reason, the midterms. Whoever it is, Republican, Democrat, great president. So even if it's a Democrat or a Republican, whoever wins the presidency has a hard time with the midterm. So whether it's a Republican or Democrat, whoever wins the presidency, the other party wins the midterm. And it doesn't make sense. Typically, a president, whether he's good or bad, Republican or Democrat, loses the midterms. Let's bring in CNN political director David Chalian to talk about this. And this is a critical election for President Trump for his agenda.

6:17And given that, what this means for the final two years of his term, how strange is it that there's so much turmoil over the strategy here? I was scratching my head for the last day and a half over this, because Donald Trump has put himself at the center of this campaign strategically. Like, he and his team have said repeatedly for months, since the end of last year, Brianna, that he is going to be on the ballot. You hear him say, please pretend I'm on the ballot. And he has been working his tail off as he likes to tout. I mean, the month of October, he did like 25 rallies. So then all of a sudden, the end to just stop down, but in the final two days, it was like, what is that about?

6:58And then of course, as we're learning in our reporting, I mean, the least surprising thing is that Donald Trump is reacting to news coverage he doesn't like, because that's kind of how he operates and then puts them back on. But of course, comes up with some excuse like he's being called to do this when our reporting suggests they're scrambling behind the White House because he didn't like the coverage and they wanted to get the rallies back. This just felt sort of chaotic to me at the end in a way that he had he had not been throughout the last month. He'd been pretty clear what the plan was and then just changed it up at the end.

7:29It's really interesting. And the president, of course, he always likes to talk about the size of crowds at his rallies, and he's been doing that. Let's listen. The crowds have been unbelievable. Biggest crowds anyone's ever seen. The biggest crowds for midterms by thousands of people. These rallies and every rally totally sold out with thousands of people that can't get in. How do you make it that? Because we have thousands and thousands of people. You know, they've been lined up for three days you've seen the crowds. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. All right. Perhaps not surprising. Right.

8:07But we'll allow for the expected Trumpian embellishment there. I do wonder how you see the impact of, say, a 90 minute rally, which is a big investment of time compared to these tele rallies, which might be more targeted and are 10 minutes approximately. Well, this is also it raises the larger question about this whole strategy and whether or not Donald Trump is an advisers played played this correctly, we'll learn, perhaps on Tuesday night, or at least somewhat learn, because presidents who are woefully unpopular, like this president is, I mean, historically, he's at the lowest place for a president going into a midterm of all of his modern era predecessors.

8:45And they tend to stay out of sight, right? Stay in the White House, don't be on the campaign show. They chose a different thing. So okay, lean into it, but then do the rallies, because at least if the theory of the case is he has a unique ability to energize the MAGA base. And a lot of these key elections are taking place in red states. And we're seeing a lot of dampened or lack of enthusiasm on the Republican side. So if his mission is, at least I'm not going to persuade anybody who's not with me. But if I'm going to show up, I'm going to try to energize Republicans to understand why it's so important to go out.

9:15Then you have to give them the video clips, the whole show, get that on the news. If you're doing a tele-rally, that's not going to happen as much. It doesn't generate the same level of coverage. So again, it raises a question. Let me raise one other question. If the whole theory of the case was, oh, I don't want to do those rallies. I'm going to do tele-rallies. Why couldn't you do both? Could you not do tele-rallies from Kansas backstage after you're done with the rally and call into a bunch of other places? It just didn't add up. Sounds energetic, actually, right? You could be on the road and doing them.

9:45So also breaking tonight, of course, David, is that the Justice Department is accelerating its criminal probe into Alaska's Senate race after that New York Times bombshell report that campaign aides for the Democratic nominee Mary Peltola were involved in recruiting a man with the very same name as incumbent GOP Senator Dan Sullivan into the race. Today, the DOJ's top prosecutor in Alaska spoke about the department's probes just four days before the election. Recent reporting has obviously resulted in troubling new revelations. This new information has resulted in a significant surge of law enforcement assets to Alaska, and I have assigned several attorneys in my office to assist in the matter as well.

10:29There is both a civil investigation and a criminal investigation that are ongoing. We will not let anyone or any group undermine this election. Now, U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman declined to detail what specific alleged crimes are being investigated here. The Justice Department has also filed a civil lawsuit to block Alaska's Senate results if the GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan loses. In the meantime, Peltola is urging a judge to dismiss that case before the election. Here's what she's telling voters. I just want to clear the air. I knew nothing about any other candidates on the ballot except for me and the incumbent.

11:12That is all I have ever known about. I am not interested in tricking voters. I know I can beat Dan Sullivan. Benjamin Ginsburg is here with us now. He's a Republican election lawyer to talk about the implications of this. The U.S. Attorney's Office there, Ben, actually says that this criminal probe has been going on for months. Is it clear to you since he's not saying what alleged crimes may have happened here? Not clear in the least. I mean, this is legal performance art right before an election. There is no chance of coming up with an indictment or developing a case before voters go to the polls.

11:51But you can sort of cloud over the dialogue. So this is more about the performance and impacting voters and what they think than anything that will actually come to pass in court. So the question then, David, is, is there a political crime, right? And are voters going to be swayed by that. I mean, what are you seeing? Well, undoubtedly, this is a distraction for the Piltola campaign. This is not where she wanted to be, closing out this race. So that is the opportunity cost going on here. And it puts them on their defensive heels. Whether or not voters in Alaska are absorbing this in a way and it's going to impact their vote, I don't think we know that.

12:32And I think anecdotally, you know, our Kyung-La has been out there talking to us. We're not picking up on that. And we haven't seen a poll, really a high quality poll, capture the reality on the ground after this news emerged. But at the very least, this is not where the Peltola campaign wanted the narrative and the story to be in the final hours of this campaign. Yeah. And Ben, the president weighing in on this today, a number of people from the administration weighing in on this, suggesting that Alaskans would be confused because they're not going to know the meaning of the word incumbent. That was what the president said.

13:02Here's what here it is. you need about 190 iq to figure out the ballot they put a ballot down where they're talking about incumbent republican and the other one most people don't know in alaska in a lot of other states too what does incumbent mean they don't know what incumbent means this was the agreement with the alaska supreme court was that on the ballot the dan sullivan who's running for re-election it says incumbent do you think that that was a good compromise. I think it was a good compromise and you can look at the results from the primary to see that. That the non-Senator Dan Sullivan only got about 2 ,500 votes, a small percentage.

13:46The incumbent Senator got a lot. And as for confusion in Alaska voters, remember these were the people that managed to write in Lisa Murkowski's name, which you had to spell precisely under Alaska law. And yet she won in that really unprecedented write-in race. These are smart voters. And all of this is sort of a condescending attitude towards Alaska voters when they have proven time and again that they do know the difference between candidates. There doesn't, though, Ben, always have to be a crime for there to be a turning of the legal wheels, right, the investigatory wheels, the things that people look at and say, oh, I really don't like how that looks.

14:32I mean, what do you think about that? Yes, but that's the political part rather than and using the legal process to try and achieve that that political result. And is it going to pay off? We don't know at this point in time. So tomorrow, Ben, the DOJ civil case is expected to play out right in the court. DOJ, what they're asking is for the judge to segregate Alaska's ballots and segregate the ballots that have Daniel J. Sullivan on them. And then Peltola has until noon to respond. How do you see it playing out? Well, I don't understand why segregating those ballots would lead you to be able to prove any case whatsoever.

15:11However, if the theory is voter confusion, just segregating those ballots is not proof of voter confusion in the least. It's especially true in a ranked choice voting state where if your first candidate doesn't win, you end up moving up. And so someone who is confused about which Dan Sullivan will vote to vote for will take the other Dan Sullivan and vote for them as number two. so that ultimately in a ranked choice voting state, this kind of washes out. Certainly has introduced a whole new dynamic. Ben, David, thank you so much to both of you. And joining us now is the retiring Democratic senator from Minnesota, Tina Smith.

15:53Senator, before we get to what DOJ is doing in Alaska, are you OK with what Democrats orchestrated there, according to The New York Times? Well, listen, you know, campaigns are messy. and what I am really for sure clear about as your guest just said is that Alaska voters are smart and they know what to do. They know they can see Dan Sullivan incumbent Republican and know who they're going to vote for and as we just were hearing this is a ranked choice voting process and so it's all going to wash out in the it's all going to wash out as the election moves forward. These kinds of tactics are used by Republicans and Democrats.

16:33They actually were used against Mary Peltola when she was running for Congress earlier. So I think this is really a distraction. It is clearly an abuse of power, if you ask me, to have this federal surge into Alaska to try to distract Alaska voters from the fact that gas is like nearly$5 a gallon in Alaska and people want change. They don't like what Donald Trump is doing. And that's why Dan Sullivan is going to lose in Alaska. The White House has gone on offense in light of these allegations. Let's listen. This is voter fraud at the highest level. I think it's a criminal act what they did because it was a conspiracy.

17:13So whether it's criminal or not, she certainly has committed, I think, a great moral failing and hopefully the voters of Alaska punished her. This is a profound criminal act because the lives, livelihoods and futures of every American is implicated in this scheme. Do you, Senator, trust the U.S. attorney to withstand that kind of pressure to reach a decision that the White House prefers? I mean, it's hard to it's hard to be feeling very trustworthy right now. I mean, let's be honest, because we can see all across the country. This is the playbook that the Trump administration is pursuing. You know, we're all like watching and kind of amazement as he appears to be melting down and can't decide where he wants to go or what he wants to do.

17:59His rallies are failing. But what's really we need to pay attention to is the way in which they are abusing their power, issuing subpoenas, launching investigations, sending administration leaders at the highest levels to Minnesota today, to Alaska, and pursuing these investigations which are designed to either suppress the vote or to lay the groundwork for when the votes have been cast to try to undermine and challenge the election. And that's what we all have to be prepared for as we go through the next four days before the final day of voting. So, as I mentioned, you are leaving all of this.

18:39You are leaving Congress at the end of this term. And you've raised concerns about what could happen to your seat in this election. You posted that you think President Trump is laying the groundwork to steal an election if the Republican running in Minnesota loses. What do you think that effort could look like? Well, what I see right now in Minnesota is actually kind of a phenomenal get out the vote effort. That is over two and a half million doors knocked all this year. And we're going to do probably another half a million in the next several days. So what I'm really focused on right now is how we can make sure that the margins of victory for Peggy Flanagan and Amy Klobuchar and our other candidates are substantial enough that the claims of the election being rigged or stolen by Donald Trump will just be completely unbelievable.

19:31But we also are being very careful. We have full-blown, you know, election monitoring efforts in place. We have lawyers on standby to be prepared to fight back these efforts. What's really happening in Minnesota, and I think it's happening everywhere around the country, is voters are going, OK, wait a minute, hold the phone. I've got a choice here. Do I want more Trump corruption? Do I want more chaos? Do I want more high prices? Do I want more of the war in Iran? Or do I want some sort of a check on that? And they are choosing something different. They'd want to check on what Trump is doing. And that's why I think Michelle Tafoya is going to lose.

20:11And it's why the governor's Republican governor's candidate is going to lose because voters are just fed up with it. And that's the thing we're going to be pushing on for the next four days. Cook Political Report recently shifted the Minnesota Senate race from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. And when you're looking at this recent New York Times Siena poll, it has Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, up 14 points. Do you really think that she's up 14 points? I mean, you know, I know I don't think that she is up 14 points, but I also believe that she's going to win. I have a lot of confidence that she's going to win for the reasons I just explained.

20:50You know, at this time of campaigns and the polls are all over the map, all I care about is like how many doors got knocked, how many people have voted already. And I look at Minnesota and really around the country and we see early voting up substantially from 2022. And we also see that that early vote is strongly Democratic. And so what I think is happening is people are coming out to vote because they are rejecting Trump and rejecting the Republicans that are just a rubber stamp for him. And we'll know what happens in just a few days. And I will, for one, be really glad when we get there. We'll all be glad, Senator.

21:28Senator Tina Smith, thank you so much for being with us. And up next, speaking of all over the map, John King's Battleground State Tour wraps up in Maine. What voters are telling him about the race that could tip control of the Senate to Democrats.

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22:44Tonight, Democrats are increasingly hopeful that they have a shot at flipping the Senate. And one of the races it could come down to is in Maine. That's where CNN's John King is wrapping up his battleground state tour. So, John, talk to us about this. CNN's latest poll shows a tight race for the Senate with no clear leader. Who are the voters who could decide this race, and what are they saying to you? And, Bree, remember, at the beginning of the year, this was the Democrats' number one target, because Kamala Harris won Maine in 2024. Democrats thought they could flip this state. Just want to show you on the mini-magic wall we have traveling with us, about half of the population lives in that circle I just drew, the southern part along the coast.

23:23Maine has only a little over one million people. The rest live up in the northern part of the state, the more rural part of the state. There are essentially two mains, more liberal, progressive coastal areas, much more conservative up there. Remember the drama here, Bree, at the beginning of the year. Graham Plattner's meteoric rise, the progressive oyster farmer, then his quick fall, his implosion over character questions in the summer. Back then, Democrats were nervous. Could they pick a new candidate, and could they find a candidate who could defeat the veteran incumbent Susan Collins? One of those voters who had doubts is a woman here I met during our All Over the Map project.

23:55Emily Bruce Prump, listen to her take. If Susan Collins is re-elected, she's survived in the past very tough climates. Will the people who want her defeated, will the people who want a Democratic Senate, will they blame Troy Jackson or will they blame Graham Plattner, thinking that we got off on this dramatic start and we couldn't get back on course? I think it's tough to blame a Democrat no matter who it is. I think it was obviously a bumpy ride, but I think that Susan Collins is a powerful senator, and she runs a really great campaign. She has a really strong team, and I think people understand that she's got a really loyal following.

24:39I think the way that Susan loses is actually people don't show up. I think that a lot of her people who voted for her in the past maybe just abstain, and that's really going to be the deciding margin.

24:53We walked a bit in some neighborhoods today, Brianna, with some Democratic canvases, just a few houses, but the canvases they did, but not quite a bit. And they're confident they're finding voters, they say, who voted for Collins in the past who are going to switch to Troy Jackson. This seat, of course, is absolutely essential to the Senate math. But I will say this. Remember, Susan Collins has proven herself to be a survivor. She is the only Republican senator to win reelection in 2020 in a state carried by Joe Biden that year. So her history is survival. The question is, can she survive this big national climate for change?

25:23Yeah, you can't count her out. We'll have to see here, right? So you've been all across the map covering these elections from the ground since earlier this year. We're so close now to the finish line. How would you sum up what you've learned about where the country is right now? So I'll give you one piece of it as I talk about it. I just want to bring up on the screen something to show you. This graphic shows you the price of gas since President Trump started the Iran war back in February. If you see purple, gas prices have gone up more than 70 percent in the past eight months. If you see the pink color, they've gone up 63 to 75 percent.

25:57The goldish, the orange color, 54 to 63 percent. Affordability is by far the biggest issue, and the rising price of gas, and especially in rural America, diesel costs even more, up even more. That is the big thing, Brianna, affordability. working-class Americans saying they're simply having a struggle making men's meet. On this tour, it backs up what we've done in our 30 other trips to 15 states during this cycle. Voters are in a bad mood. They are tired. They think Washington is broken. They think a lot of them think President Trump hasn't kept his promises. If you want to boil it all down simply, you ask them, how are you doing?

26:29They say not so great. When people feel not so great, they vote for change. Yeah. John King, always great to see you on the road here in the Battleground State of Maine there. Thanks so much. Thank you. Up next to Battleground Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is brushing off his former primary rival right before they're supposed to campaign together. We'll tell you why.

26:57Shaq here. What's it like to buy a car from Carvana 100 % online and get it delivered to your door? Let me tell you. Your car is here, Mr. Shaq. Thank you, Mr. Carvana guy. Can't wait to take it for a spin. Only the best for you, Mr. Shaq. Hey, have you always been so big, tall, and handsome? Not always. I was 6 '10 once. Seven days to love it or return it, Mr. Shaq. Not that I would. You never do. No, I never do. So buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. See our seven-day return policy at Carvana.com. With just four days until the midterm elections, Cook Political Report has just moved a dozen key house races towards Democrats.

27:37Two of those races in Ohio and Pennsylvania have moved from toss-up to lean Democratic. Lean Republican seats in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina are now toss-ups. And while GOP wins are still favorable in seven select races in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, and Washington, all seven have now become more competitive than previously expected. And it continues a worrisome trend for Republicans who hope to maintain control of the chamber. My political sources are here. We have former DNC communications director Xochitl Hinojosa, whose sister is running as a Democrat for governor of Texas, and former Trump campaign advisor David Urban.

28:15So, Xochitl, it ain't over till it's over, as Lenny Kravitz likes to always remind us here, but Cook is moving these, right, believing that Democrats could win their largest House majority since 2009. What do those House candidates need to do at this point in time, just with these final few days, to make sure that happens? Well, in a lot of places, there's only one day left to vote. And a lot of places don't have early voting this weekend. And Tuesday is all about turnout. And what normally happens on election day is you likely have usually had large Republican turnout. And so in some of these districts, Democrats have to stay competitive.

28:53In many of these districts, Democrats have had the early voting advantage. and we have seen in many of them either sporadic voters, independents, people who have typically come out for Democrats, just a high number of young people and in Latinos in a place like Texas. And so what they essentially need to do is they need to continue to stay competitive on Tuesday. But I think for the most part, if you're looking at early voting in a lot of these places, Dems have the advantage going into Election Day. But Speaker Johnson says the polls are wrong, David. Yeah, listen, I wish they were wrong. OK, I wish they were wrong.

29:29Unfortunately, look, it's it's a off your election. Midterms, as we know, are historically bad for the for the party in power. And and Republicans are pushing a big rock up a hill this year on many fronts, on on on cost basis, on affordability. People are just unhappy. You know, they they ask themselves that question. Are you better off, you know, not four years ago, but two years ago? And many of them find themselves not. And so that coalition that President Trump put together of like, so she's talking about young people, you know, Hispanics, blacks, working class whites that Trump was so ably, you know, put together on social media and otherwise.

30:04Those folks are not, you know, coming out for the Republican Party like they did for President Trump. And that's the difference in a lot of these elections. In my home state of Pennsylvania, you even have a bigger uphill climb with these races. It just got flipped because you have at the top of the ticket, Josh Shapiro, governor, who's very popular, running for election. and he's trying to run up big numbers because he wants to be, I don't know this for a fact, but I think he wants to be president maybe, right? And so he wants to run those numbers up. And so you have people like Brian Fitzpatrick, who is a really moderate, solid Republican, who Democrats would love to have any day of the week, who's on the bubble, who normally, he has his own independent personality, vibe, voting record apart from Trump.

30:46There couldn't be anybody further from Donald Trump, But he's in a tough battle because of Josh Shapiro at the top of the ticket. But parts of those voting blocks that you outlined have soured on President Trump's policies. Has the president allowed, has he been allowing Republicans to do what they need to do to stem the bleeding here? Yeah, look, I think to a large extent, you know, I was thinking about this earlier. The way President Trump kind of rode into victory in the last election is he did it on social media. He talked to people directly. He met voters where they were at. Right. Right.

31:17You know, remember, we did the garbage truck, the McDonald's, a lot of these really innovative things went to, you know, bodegas in Brooklyn and the Bronx and black barbershops in Philadelphia. He went and spoke to people and gave them hope. And the White House hasn't been doing that this past two years. I don't know. They've kind of lost their groove in that. And they haven't been making the pitch to people that we're going to make things better. I think the vice president's been out there now saying, give us give us a shot. Look at Soshi. She looks like you're getting some. She looks very skeptical.

31:46So she's like, but, but, you know, the vice president saying, look, give us another, give us a shot. Give us a little bit more time. Because I promise you, if you put Democrats in this building, in the Cannon building, in the Rayburn building, in the Longworth building, things aren't going to improve. I always ask them, I'm saying, tell me three things you're going to do on day one that are going to drive down prices. Do you think Speaker Jeffries is somehow going to be able to like negotiate peace with the IRGC? Like, I don't. Well, I also think that no one is happy right now. If you look at the people who are voting and you talked about Latinos and young people and all of these folks, it turned out for Donald Trump because he made promises to bring down costs and all those things.

32:23Donald Trump didn't do it. And actually, he has made things worse. He was able, you know, he had put policies in place that brought up costs. And then you also have a Republican base who is also not happy and they're not energized to come out. And that is the problem that they're seeing in many of these red districts. It's that Democrats are running up the numbers and Republicans at so far have been staying home. And it'll be interesting to see whether or not there's a last minute push on Tuesday and what that looks like. Let's talk about Michigan, because this is a tough race for Democrats if everything goes perfectly and things are not going perfectly right now.

33:01There's like a family food fight going on there. You have Abdul El-Sayed off a call from Haley Stevens, who he bested in the primary. She wants him to denounce an outside group's controversial ad criticizing U.S. foreign aid to Israel. And in a statement, he said that Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago. He's not doing what she wants. And by the way, they're supposed to be campaigning together. What's happening here? this is ridiculous i think that this is if we lose michigan because democratic voters decided that they were not going to turn out because there was in-party fighting then shame on our party for that that is ridiculous i agree that people should disavow that ad it was a terrible ad but not people not people everyone should disavow that the candidate i 100 agree the I 100 % agree.

33:58But here is what I'll say is Republicans, when it is right before an election, they stick with their party. And for the most part, they stick with their party. And Democrats have a really hard time doing that. We are days away. And this is more than just Abdul Al-Sayed. This is about the future of our country. This is about a potential next Supreme Court justice. If for some reason, if we don't win the Senate. Donald Trump just said that he wanted to nominate Ted Cruz the other day. That is what we're talking about. There is so much at stake in our country that Democrats need to put aside their differences and focus on the prize.

34:35And that prize is a Senate. But I would just say this. I think the cake's baked there a little bit. Right. Because Abdul El-Sayed campaign, he started his campaign off with a son piker dragging around the state. Right. He had hit, you know, angry people hurt. People do hurt things after this. You know, he's made so many so many bad decisions. And instead of zigging, he zagged. Right. He could have run as a moderate candidate, but he would have to beat two other moderate candidates to win. So he decided to run far left, hard left, progressive left. And you can't get back from there. When you say that there's an equivalency between Iran and Israel in terms of global terror, all the things that are happening in the world.

35:14That's just that's a that's a problem bigger than just a little bit of a internal scrum. How much of a gift is this to Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate? I think it's a complete gift because African Americans, Jews in this state, like if you're a Jewish voter in Michigan, why would you vote for a guy who says that Iran is less of a threat to the world than Israel? It makes no sense. And that ad is a horrific ad. He should just come out and disavow it. If Democrats lose that, they've got no one to blame except the candidate himself. Kumbaya moment here. We agree. We agree. We agree. So she and I agree.

35:49We can figure it out. This is what happens with moderate, you know. All right. Guys, thank you so much for the discussion. Really appreciate it. And up next, my new reporting, divorced military spouses left stranded overseas. Hear from one of my sources. Plus, another consequential week in Washington and on the campaign trail. Caitlin takes us behind the scenes.

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37:11Tonight, my sources are American military spouses, stuck overseas with their kids, blindsided by the reach of an obscure treaty that can give foreign courts jurisdiction over their American children. It's an issue that many Pentagon officials have been largely unaware of until recently. Every year, thousands of American families head overseas to accompany service members, civilian employees of the Defense Department, and military contractors who are working abroad in service of the United States. And yet when a marriage falls apart abroad, the accompanying spouse can find themselves stranded in a foreign country, bound by foreign laws and courts, even though they are American citizens with American children who moved abroad on American military orders.

37:56Christina Fuller is an American citizen and former Navy spouse living now without legal residency in southern Spain. That's where a custody fight has kept her and her nine-year-old son for several years. After her marriage to a U.S. Navy sailor assigned to a destroyer based in the country, fell apart back in 2021. It was nothing that I could have ever imagined. It was very surprising. I didn't think that that could happen. I didn't know how to navigate a Spanish court. I would contact American lawyers. They didn't know how to help me. And after the divorce, you, I should say he went to Hawaii on orders.

38:37You actually stayed in Spain with your son. You couldn't leave. Yes, correct. A Spanish judge put a hold on my child saying that we were not able to leave the country without permission of the other parent or of the judge. So I spoke to more than a dozen current or former spouses facing similar challenges. in Spain, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan. Some of them even felt forced back to the U.S. without their children, having exhausted all financial or logistical options. All but one of the spouses CNN spoke to were women. In a statement, the U.S. Navy, like other service branches represented in this story, said it does not track how many families are in divorce or child custody proceedings in foreign courts, but that it does educate them before they go overseas with briefings to, quote, ensure service members and their dependents clearly understand host nation jurisdiction, legal protections and administrative responsibilities while serving abroad.

39:39Though families told us they did not know that. I have much more reporting out tonight on this story. So to go deeper, check out the QR code there on your screen to read more on CNN.com or the CNN app. And up next, Caitlin's behind the scenes look at this week in Washington, the last full week before the midterm elections.

40:03It's the last full week before the midterm elections, and President Trump has been very busy. Here's Caitlin's behind-the-scenes look. And you'll respect the results, whatever happens? I will if they're honest elections, yeah.

40:33Trump wrote his longest ever social media post. What was it about? His personal grievances with comedian Bill Maher. Why is he talking about all this nonsense and not what the voters care about? I mean, that's what a lot of Republicans are asking themselves. A lot of people are just seeing this closing message at a time when so many Republicans are struggling with so many of the issues. And how to message on them when it comes to the Iran war, the tariff war, all of these facets of the Trump presidency. Nobody's ever campaigned like I have for midterms. And now they say, oh, whoa, Barack Obama's gonna start campaigning.

41:05Tell him he's not campaigning about me, maybe he'll go home.

41:11There are now eight days until Election Day. More than 30 million ballots have already been cast. President Trump is talking about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump. That'll be the headline. I don't give a damn, I'm gonna say it. We're making a freaking fortune. Do voters want to hear about the record oil profits that companies are making right now? There's a giant juxtaposition of the voter who's trying to see how can my wages keep up with inflation versus the grift and corruption. I think that's a really big challenge for Republicans in the House and Senate right now.

41:53How do you intend to work with Democrats if they have control of the House? We'll figure it away. You have strong veto and you end up working out deals.

42:05The$5 ,000 Trump dividend, you'll be my guest at Mar-a-Lago. The problem is that for$5 ,000, the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I'm not even sure you could buy that. The president has made clear as he's been going out and doing all these rallies, he thinks they're helping these Republican candidates. The data is not showing that right now.

42:33One week from tonight, and the balance of power in the building behind me could look a lot different. Whatever the voters decide next Tuesday, it will impact just about everything for the final two years of the Trump presidency. When the president is touting how much money these oil companies are making and how big their profits are, how do you think that makes people feel who are paying way more to fill up their car to go to work? The president actually has a plan for lowering gas prices. This is the difference. Find a Democrat that has a plan for lowering gas prices. Drill baby drill has worked.

43:01Now we're going to do refined baby refining.

43:13It's terrible what's happened in Alaska. The Democrats put another person named Dan Sullivan in the race. So you have two Dan Sullivans running against one Democrat. To me, that's voter fraud at the highest level.

43:40One of the tightest races is the one in Michigan for that Senate seat. Back in August, El-Sayed narrowly won the nomination, you'll recall, when he defeated Representative Haley Stevens in the primary. The congresswoman's fiancée is going public with his plans to vote for the Republican here. Couples certainly don't have to agree on everything, definitely not politics. Like a lot of households across America, we're a household divided. I'm voting for the Democratic ticket, but I want to encourage this campaign to shut out the hate. If Mary Paltola's campaign did go out and try to find other Dan Sullivans to run, to try to hurt the Republican Dan Sullivan who was running, are you okay with that?

44:18If the Alaskan voters want to fire Senator Dan Sullivan, they're gonna do it. Donald Trump is gonna try to find any reason to invalidate the will of the voters. That's what this is about.

44:39So you not going to Kansas have nothing to do with you being sick of traveling? Oh, you're sick to have that. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell. Thank you. This is the president of the United States. You should not be screaming and demeaning a reporter who just asked you a question. People are saying enough is enough. You can stream The Source live or watch on demand anytime with an all-access subscription. Scan the QR code on your screen or go to cnn.com slash watch to learn more. And thank you so much for joining us. CNN Newsnight starts now. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task, unless you have a partner like Shopify.

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From the publisher

A look at what CNN’s sources are saying about the White House’s haphazard strategy four days until the midterms. 
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